This presentation summarizes a study that evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on sorghum yields in Ethiopia and adaptation practices like supplemental irrigation and shifting planting dates. The study used a crop simulation model, CSM-CERES-Sorghum, which accurately simulated sorghum growth and yield. The results showed that average temperatures are projected to increase up to 6°C in the study sites, and sorghum yields under rainfed production could decrease by up to 2 tons per hectare. However, full supplemental irrigation was effective in increasing sorghum yields by up to 3 tons per hectare in one region and 2 tons in the other region. Early planting dates combined with supplemental irrigation also tended to increase yields.

1. AWRA VIRTUAL ANNUAL WATER RESOURCES
CONFERENCE
NOVEMBER 9 – 11, 2020
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@NATIONALAWRA

2. AWRA 2020 VIRTUAL
ANNUAL WATER RESOURCES
CONFERENCE
Potentials of irrigation as a climate change
adaptation measure
#3A session 6
PRESENTER: Fikadu G. Welidehanna
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3. Objectives
• The objectives of the study
– To investigate the potential impact of climate change on
sorghum yield under rainfed production systems and
– To evaluate the effectiveness of supplemental irrigation to the
current rainfed production system and shifting planting dates as
adaptation practices for two major sorghum producing regions
in Ethiopia

4. Study sites

5. Results and Discussion
• Performance of the CSM-CERES-Sorghum model
1
Set up Variable Observed Simulated R2
RMSE d-Stat.
Calibration
Anthesis day 73 (±2.1 ) 74 (±3.5 ) 0.73 2.37 0.81
Yield (kg/ha) 3814 (±165.6 ) 4012 (±137.5 ) 0.76 213.64 0.7
Maturity day 124 (±4.2 ) 123 (±7.1 ) 0.59 4.86 0.8
Evaluation
Anthesis day 72 (±2.2 ) 71 (±2.2 ) 0.86 1.29 0.91
Yield (kg/ha) 4137 (±345.8 ) 4468 (±520.2 ) 0.99 377.22 0.83
Maturity day 115 (±3.4 ) 118 (±1.2 ) 0.79 4.36 0.61

6. Sorghum yield projection
• Climate change with out
adaptations
– Decrease by up to 2 t ha-1
– Consistently decrease under
hot/dry
– Highest in Meisso than
Kobo
– Remain below 1 t ha-1

7. Adaptation
practices
• Abs. change under
rainfed, deficit IRR and
full IRR for all planting
date in 2085s
– Early planting
– Increase 4-6 t ha-1
– Irrigation > shifting
planting date

8. • Absolute yield change
• Up to 3 t ha-1 for Kobo and
2 t ha-1 for Meisso under full
irrigation
• Yield high variable in RCP8.5

9. Conclusion
• Average temperature will increase by up to 6 oC for both
study sites
• Rainfall projections showed mixed results
• Crop moisture stress is projected to intensify especially
during crop anthesis
• Sorghum yield under the rainfed production projected to
decrease by up 2 t ha-1
• Full irrigation was effective in increasing sorghum yield by
up to 3 t ha-1 for Kobo and 2 t ha-1 for Meisso
• Early planting dates tend to increase crop yield, especially
when implemented with supplemental irrigation

10. THANK YOU
CONTACT US WITH QUESTIONS
Presenter: Fikadu G. Welidehanna
Fikadugetachew@ufl.edu
Co-authors: Haimanote K. Bayabil,
Gerrit Hoogenboom,
Fitsum T. Teshome, and
Eshetu Zewdu