This document discusses the potential role and impact of climate change on cassava production. It finds that cassava is generally more resilient to increased temperatures and drought than other staple crops like maize and soy. Climate models project that cassava growing conditions will remain suitable or expand in many areas of Africa. However, the document also notes that pests and diseases pose a threat to cassava's potential. It recommends further research on breeding pest-resistant varieties of cassava and improving crop models to better understand cassava's climate change resilience.
Many developing countries still have a significant quantity of land available that is well adapted to rain-fed crops – about as much as now is being farmed (over 1.7 billion acres). These lands do not include areas inhabited by human beings, forests, or protected areas.
If a country can produce and export biofuels, it will have a stronger economy and more resources to address the needs of the poor.
Africa, with its significant sugar cane/Cassava production potential, is often cited as a region that could profit from experience and technology, although obstacles to realizing it (infrastructure, institutional, etc.) should not be underestimated.
Many developing countries still have a significant quantity of land available that is well adapted to rain-fed crops – about as much as now is being farmed (over 1.7 billion acres). These lands do not include areas inhabited by human beings, forests, or protected areas.
If a country can produce and export biofuels, it will have a stronger economy and more resources to address the needs of the poor.
Africa, with its significant sugar cane/Cassava production potential, is often cited as a region that could profit from experience and technology, although obstacles to realizing it (infrastructure, institutional, etc.) should not be underestimated.
Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la producción, traducción, diseminación y uso efectivo de datos y perspectivas climáticas en el sector agropecuario en la región SICA.
Carlos Navarro-Racines
Evento de socialización de los logros alcanzados por CCAFS en Centroamérica en el marco de la gira del Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral del Riesgo (GTCCGIR) del CAC.
Guatemala, diciembre 1, 2021
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones.
Feria Internacional del Medio Ambiente (FIMA)
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones
Webinar: Recursos De Información Para El Sector Agrícola En La Región De America Latina Y El Caribe.
Plataforma de Acción Climática en Agricultura de Latinoamérica y el Caribe (PLACA)
Presentación del Módulo 2 "El cambio climático, retos y desafíos para el desarrollo sostenible" del diplomado “El cambio climático y el sector agropecuario: desafíos y oportunidades para un desarrollo resiliente, con bajas emisiones y adaptado al clima en Centroamérica y República Dominicana.
Instituto Centroamericano de Administración Pública (ICAP)
En el marco del LXIV Foro del Clima de América Central y
el XLII Foro de Aplicaciones de los Pronósticos Climáticos
a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional
Academia Nacional de Servicios Climáticos - Guatemala
Diplomado en Ciencias del Clima y Servicios Climáticos del Sistema Guatemalteco de Ciencias del Cambio Climatico (SGCCC)
https://sgccc.org.gt/el-sgccc-es-el-anfitrion-del-diplomado-en-ciencias-del-clima-y-servicios-climaticos/
Navarro, C. Modelación climática; Cambio climático y agricultura
Clase para Curso de climatología de la Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales (UDCA)
Abril 2021
Webinario: Modelación de cultivos para generar servicios
agroclimáticos (AquaCrop v.6)
LXI Foro del Clima de América Central
Jeferson Rodriguez Espinoza
Alejandra Esquivel
Carlos Navarro-Racines
J. Ramírez , D. Martínez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez, D. Giraldo, A. Muller, C. Bouroncle
Diplomado el enfoque territorios sostenibles adaptados al clima (TeSAC) en el corredor seco del oriente de Guatemala
Módulo 2 – Bloque 2 – Sesión 3
Carlos Navarro-Racines
E. Tünnermann, J. Ramírez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez
Diplomado “Inventario de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero”, Universidad Nacional Agraria (UNA)
Módulo I Introducción. Procesos nacionales (políticas y convenios nacionales e internacionales)
Sesión 1 Introducción a la problemática del cambio climático global y observación de cambios
Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la producción, traducción, diseminación y uso efectivo de datos y perspectivas climáticas en el sector agropecuario en la región SICA.
Carlos Navarro-Racines
Evento de socialización de los logros alcanzados por CCAFS en Centroamérica en el marco de la gira del Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral del Riesgo (GTCCGIR) del CAC.
Guatemala, diciembre 1, 2021
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones.
Feria Internacional del Medio Ambiente (FIMA)
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones
Webinar: Recursos De Información Para El Sector Agrícola En La Región De America Latina Y El Caribe.
Plataforma de Acción Climática en Agricultura de Latinoamérica y el Caribe (PLACA)
Presentación del Módulo 2 "El cambio climático, retos y desafíos para el desarrollo sostenible" del diplomado “El cambio climático y el sector agropecuario: desafíos y oportunidades para un desarrollo resiliente, con bajas emisiones y adaptado al clima en Centroamérica y República Dominicana.
Instituto Centroamericano de Administración Pública (ICAP)
En el marco del LXIV Foro del Clima de América Central y
el XLII Foro de Aplicaciones de los Pronósticos Climáticos
a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional
Academia Nacional de Servicios Climáticos - Guatemala
Diplomado en Ciencias del Clima y Servicios Climáticos del Sistema Guatemalteco de Ciencias del Cambio Climatico (SGCCC)
https://sgccc.org.gt/el-sgccc-es-el-anfitrion-del-diplomado-en-ciencias-del-clima-y-servicios-climaticos/
Navarro, C. Modelación climática; Cambio climático y agricultura
Clase para Curso de climatología de la Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales (UDCA)
Abril 2021
Webinario: Modelación de cultivos para generar servicios
agroclimáticos (AquaCrop v.6)
LXI Foro del Clima de América Central
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Alejandra Esquivel
Carlos Navarro-Racines
J. Ramírez , D. Martínez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez, D. Giraldo, A. Muller, C. Bouroncle
Diplomado el enfoque territorios sostenibles adaptados al clima (TeSAC) en el corredor seco del oriente de Guatemala
Módulo 2 – Bloque 2 – Sesión 3
Carlos Navarro-Racines
E. Tünnermann, J. Ramírez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez
Diplomado “Inventario de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero”, Universidad Nacional Agraria (UNA)
Módulo I Introducción. Procesos nacionales (políticas y convenios nacionales e internacionales)
Sesión 1 Introducción a la problemática del cambio climático global y observación de cambios
Importancia de los pronósticos aplicados al sector durante la crisis actual del COVID-19
XLI Foro de Aplicación de los Pronósticos Climáticos a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional: Perspectivas para el período Agosto - Octubre 2020 - 22 de julio del 2020
Presentación sobre las Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas en Centro América en el contexto de COVID-19, en el marco del webinar "Desafíos y oportunidades para alcanzar equidad de género en los servicios climáticos"
Training on Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) and Local Technical Agroclimatic Comittees (MTA / LTAC) to the DeRISK project team.
February 11 -19 2020, CIAT Hanoi, Vietnam
Conversatorio virtual - ¿Cómo pueden la Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima (ASAC) ayudar a mitigar los impactos en los sistemas agrícolas de América Latina debido al COVID-19?
Miércoles 20 de mayo de 2020
• ¿Qué estrategias alternativas podrían funcionar para diseminar información agroclimática? y ¿cómo estas pueden ser aprovechadas para diseminar información relacionada con el Covid -19?
• ¿Cuáles creen que serán las perspectivas a futuro en relación a la seguridad alimentaria de las comunidades rurales de América Latina dada la coyuntura de la pandemia?
• ¿Qué cultivos son clave para evitar una crisis de seguridad alimentaria en la región dada la coyuntura?
• ¿Cuáles creen que son las principales oportunidades para que los agricultores adopten prácticas de Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima? … ¿Cree que la situación actual de Covid- 19 aumenta estas oportunidades? y ¿Cómo?
• ¿Cómo asegurar que no se desvíen recursos que son fundamentales para el desarrollo de las comunidades rurales debido a la pandemia?
• ¿Cómo desde la ciencia podemos ayudar a mitigar las repercusiones económicas que enfrentan y/o enfrentarán los agricultores debido al Covid-19?
• ¿Cómo cambia la coyuntura actual la manera de hacer investigación agrícola? ¿Qué deberíamos cambiar?
• ¿Qué cambios supondrá la pandemia para la cadena de abastecimientos de alimentos de los países de América Latina?
• ¿Qué oportunidades se presentan para cambiar las relaciones de producción entre el campo y las ciudades a raíz de la pandemia?
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Andy J - Climate change and the outlook for cassava
1. Climate change and the outlook for Cassava
Julian Ramirez, Andy Jarvis, Patricia
Moreno, James Cock, Carlos Navarro,
Beatriz Herrera
2. What will be the role of cassava in a
climate changed world?
• We know cassava is a resistant crop….
• …..but will it stand up to climate change?
• How does it fair up with other major staples?
• What are the research challenges over the
coming decades?
• What has all this got to do with film stars?
5. Cassava – an exception to the rule?
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed
to temperatures >30˚C
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
7. What will this mean for cassava?
Minimum absolute
300
rainfall (mm)
Minimum optimum
800
rainfall (mm)
Maximum optimum
2200
rainfall (mm)
Maximum absolute
2800
rainfall (mm)
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
15.0
temperature (°C)
Minimum optimum
It evaluates on monthly basis if there 22.0
temperature (°C)
are adequate climatic conditions Maximum optimum
32.0
temperature (°C)
within a growing season for Maximum absolute
temperature and precipitation… 45.0
temperature (°C)
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the Growing season (days) 240
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…
13. But what about other staples?
The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean
14. Cassava suitability change compared
with other staples
• Cassava consistently outperforms other
staples in terms of changes in suitability
15. Cassava’s role as a substitution crop
• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain
climate (risk management)
• Cassava as the substitution crop for other
staples more sensitive to heat and drought
• Cassava as a source of increasing food and
nutritional security across the continent
16. Not so fast….
• Pests and diseases:
the Achilles Heal of
cassava?
17. Impacts on mealy bug and brown
streak virus
Mealy bug Brown streak virus
18. Future Priorities
• The Achilles heal: addressing pest and disease
susceptibility
• Breeding in low latitudes for cold tolerance
(e.g. Southern Africa, Brazil, China)
• Improving cassava science and knowledge:
physiological models of the crop and its
diseases
19. Look for conditions in future analogues to existing
conditions how cassava will perform
Simulate crop growth and development within and
beyond the current climate range where cassava is
currently grown
20. AgTrials.org (929 cassava trials)
Calibrate and evaluate
the model using multi-
site trial data
We need
more!
21. It will be developed from the Mathews & Hunt GUMCAS model
It appears to be the most complete cassava model currently
available and also it is in DSSAT requires more development
and calibration
• Improve the DSSAT GUMCAS model with (so far):
• DSSAT team (Gerrit Hoogenboom (WSU), Cheryl Porter,
K. Boote, and J. Jones (University of Florida))
• CLAYUCA and partners
• The Thai cassava modeling group (Dept of Agriculture,
Khon Kaen University and Chiang Mai University)
• Researchers involved in developing the early cassava
models (e.g. Tony Hunt, James Cock).
22. • Information of such aspects as the effects of elevated CO2 levels on
growth and development.
• Trials by researchers valuable information for development and
calibrate the model.
• Information on a farm level realistic simulation of the crop
considering yield gap
• The creation of an inter-agency cassava model that evaluates a
variety of scenarios with respect to cassava productivity
• Members can use the models directly, or request specific analysis
23. Email: a.jarvis@cgiar.org
Internet: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org
http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org
• (Jarvis et al.,2012) Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation
• (Ceballos et al., 2011) Chapter 19. Adaptation of Cassava to Changing Climates.
• (Herrera et al., 2011) Threats to cassava production: known and potential geographic
distribution of four key biotic constraints