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Presentation for QITCOM 2012

       Guide to broadband investment

       5th March 2011 • Pat Kidney


18800-392
2


 Contents

       Introduction to Analysys Mason
       Aims of the guide to broadband investment
       Stages of investment planning
       Choice of investment model
       Overall recommendations




18800-392
3


      Analysys Mason has considerable global experience in undertaking
      and assessing national broadband plans
Wales 2004 -2010: Commercial and            Ireland 2006-12:          Malta 2011: Techno-economic feasibility of UK 2008: Broadband stakeholder
                                                                                                                                                         UK 2005-2006: Development of
technical strategy, business planning,      Design, procurement and   a national FTTH network                       group models for efficient public
                                                                                                                                                         broadband scenarios for the BSG
procurement and implementation              implementation support                                                  sector interventions in next
                                                                                                                                                         in the UK
support as part of National fibre           for the EUR 234m          UK 2001 onwards: Broadband                    generation broadband
broadband initiative                        National Broadband        planning for regional development                                                         Wales 2006: Study to
European Commission 2010-                   Scheme                    agencies on the UK                                      UK 2008 onwards: support
                                                                                                                              to Cornwall council in its        promote public intervention
2011: Developed a guide for                                                        EU 2011 onwards: Socio-economic
                                                                                                                              Next Generation Broadband         in “second generation
investment in broadband                                                            benefits of broadband in 27 EU
                                                                                                                              project                           broadband” market
infrastructure, covering small                                                     countries and private sector funding                                           Thailand 2009:
regional roll outs and national                                                    analysis                                                                       Development of
interventions alike                                                                                                                                               national broadband plan
Western Europe 2004:                                                                                                                                               Brunei 2009-2010:
Analysis of Internet                                                                                                                                               Development of
access prices in                                                                                                                                                   national broadband
Western Europe                                                                                                                                                     strategy
                                                                                                                                                           Singapore 2005-2006:
UK 2010 onwards: Cost modelling                                                                                                                            Provided support on Next
of next-generation broadband and                                                                                                                           Generation Broadband
regional funding allocations                                                                                                                               Network Initiative
                                                                                                                                                          Malaysia 2002-2003: National
                                                                                                                                                          broadband policy development
US 2002-2003 : Study of US
broadband policy for TechNet                                                                                                                            Gulf 2010: Regulatory support
                                                                                                                                                        in major Gulf country to define
Chile 2007-2009: Broadband         Morocco 2011:                                                                                                        three- year internet
promotion study in Chile           National action plan                                                                                                 development plan
                                                                                                                                                         New Zealand 2010 - 2011:
Libya 2009: Provided               for the development
                                                                                                                                                         Technical and cost reviews
commercial and technical fixed     of broadband
                                                                                                                                                         underpinning the Government’s
and wireless licence bid support
                                                                                                                                                         national Ultra-Fast and Rural
addressing i.a. national
                                                                                                                                                         Broadband strategies
broadband requirements.       Italy 2001-2002: Analysis
Norway 2002: Assessed                                                EMEA 2011: National Israel 2011: Technical audit of national
                              of government intervention
the potential social and                                             broadband market    broadband solution used to evidence
                              mechanisms and
economic benefits from a                                             assessment,         international competitiveness and                          Australasia 2010- 2011: Operator
                              prioritisation for broadband
scheme to provide                                                    benchmarks and      sufficient investment capability to the                    support to become national partner
                              task force
broadband to selected                                                forecasts           Government                                                 for ultra- fast broadband solution.
                               Egypt 2008: Provided                                 India 2010: Strategic
public sector sites            commercial and technical fixed   Lesotho 2012:                                      Australia 2009: STEM             Subsequently carried out review of
                                                                                    road- mapping and
                               licence bid support addressing   Development of                                     license, training and            solution and identification of global
                                                                                    assessment of drivers for
                               i.a. national broadband          national                                           modelling assistance for         best practice
                                                                                    the deployment of a
                               requirements.                    broadband plan      national fibre- optic          National Broadband
    RefNo | Commercial in confidence                                                                               project
                                                                                    backbone in India
4

 The guide provides best practice in planning
 a broadband investment
 Affordable, good quality and open ICT
  infrastructure for all will support
  cohesion, innovation, and social,
  economic and political change
 details planning and procurement issues
  that must be considered for broadband
  infrastructure investment
 Important resource for meeting
  broadband targets
 Essential for managing authorities to
  prioritise the long term socio-economic
  benefit of citizens over short term private
  financial gain
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Stages of investment planning                                                                 5

 The guide sets out seven key questions for
 planning a broadband investment
            Why should I invest in      Define project aims to tackle market failures and/or
                broadband?              deliver socio-economic benefits what and why?

         What type of network           Understand the costs and benefits of different kinds
   infrastructure should I invest in?   of infrastructure

                                        Understand the merits of each investment model
            How should I invest?
                                        and what might work best for you

     How do I manage/monitor the        Ensure successful delivery and operation, and
              outcome?                  provide evidence for audit

      What can be done to ensure        Understand the commercial case and your potential
        demand for services?            role on the demand side

   What can be done to reduce the       Include measures to reduce costs and manage risks
     cost and manage risks?

  What are the next steps that need     Contribute to hitting the DAE targets by using EU
            to be taken?                funds quickly and effectively
18800-392
Choice of investment model                                                                                6

 Five investment models provide a broad
 spectrum of funding options
                                                                    Group of end users oversee the
                                                                    contract to build and operate
                                                  Bottom-up         their own local network



Public
                  Public                                                     Private                Managing
sector          design build                                               design build               Authority
owns and        and operate                                                and operate              provides a
operates a
                                                  5 models                                             grant to
network                                                                                         private sector
without any                                                                                        to assist in
private                                                                                        deployment of
sector                                                                                           new network
assistance
                              Joint                                 Public
                             venture                              outsourcing

              Ownership of the network is split               Single contract for construction and
              between the public and private                  operation of network, but public sector
              sector                                          retains ownership and some control

18800-392
Choice of investment model                                                                                      7

 Each investment model will be applicable in
 different situations
                  Summary of pros and cons of investment models
  Model            Advantages                   Disadvantages                Recommended use

  Bottom up        •   Long term, non-          •   Localised                •   Targeting localised areas
                       profit view                  deployments              •   Leveraging small scale
                   •   Focuses demand           •   Differing technologies       funding
  Private DBO      •   Larger scale             •   Funding threshold        •   Sufficient funding to attract
                   •   Low public burden        •   Limited control              operators
                                                                             •   Effective transferral of risk
  Public           •   Public financial         •   Reduced benefit to       •   Requirement for on-going
  outsourcing          stability with private       private sector               control
                       expertise                •   Additional               •   More conservative
                   •   Greater control              bureaucracy                  operators
  Joint Venture    •   Risk sharing             •   Potential conflicts of   •   Public/private interests
                                                    interest                     closely aligned
  Public DBO       •   Public organisation      •   Size and scope limited   •   Requirement for absolute
                       has full control             by public expertise          control
                                                                             •   Inspirational investment



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Choice of investment model                    8

 The guide is illustrated with findings from
 operational projects




18800-392
Overall recommendations                                                9

 Overall recommendations are focused on
 delivering maximum benefit to end users
  Socio economic benefit must be managed alongside project
   sustainability to deliver long term benefits
    Long term control by public sector can protect end user benefit,
     however the private operators can bring invaluable expertise
    Sustainability is critical as socio-economic benefits will take time
  The bottom up model may suit small scale fibre projects
    Long term non-profit view of end users suits the fibre business
     case, but this may be difficult to leverage on a large scale
  Small investments can provide a catalyst through partnerships
  Open and non-discriminatory access to infrastructure supports
   effective competition
    However, the investment requirements for passive and active
     access must be carefully considered
18800-392
Overall recommendations                                                 10

 The guide also covers funding, state aid and
 the steps to broadband delivery


                                  EU funding
                                  application


      Preparation
                    Procurement     Procurement   Contract   Broadband
          and
                       design          activity    award      delivery
       planning


                                   State aid
                                  compliance




18800-392
11


 Contact details

  Pat Kidney
  Senior Manager, Head of Ireland
  pat.kidney@analysysmason.com

  Analysys Mason Limited
  Suite 242, The Capel Building
  Mary's Abbey
  Dublin 7, Ireland

  Tel: +353 1 602 4755
  Fax: +353 1 602 4777
  www.analysysmason.com

  Registered in Ireland IR304061
18800-392
Investment model summary                                                   12


 Bottom-up model
 Overview of model
  Group of end users oversee the contract to build and
   operate their own local network

 Advantages                 Disadvantages              Recommended use
  Long-term, non-           Difficult to replicate    For targeting
   profit view, suitable      local “intensity” on a     localised areas and
   for high-cost              large scale                for gaining the most
   infrastructure (e.g.      Localised                  benefit from small
   FTTH)                      deployments, with          amounts of funding
  Focuses demand             risk of differing
   and encourages             technologies
   local social cohesion


18800-392
Investment model summary                                                   13


 Private design build and operate model
 Overview of model
  Managing Authority provides a grant to private sector to
   assist in deployment of new network

 Advantages                 Disadvantages            Recommended use
  Larger scale (than        There is a minimum      Larger-scale
   bottom up)                 funding threshold to    Where the level of
  Low public burden,         attract private          funding attracts
   which can lead to          interest                 private interest
   faster deployments        Limited control over    Where the network
                              operations may           operations (and risk)
                              reduce the socio-        can be transferred to
                              economic impact          private sector

18800-392
Investment model summary                                                 14


 Public outsourcing model
 Overview of model
  Single contract for construction and operation of network
   but public sector retains ownership and some control

 Advantages                 Disadvantages            Recommended use
  Public financial          Reduced financial       Where Managing
   stability with private     benefit to private       Authority requires a
   expertise                                           high level of control
                              sector (compared to
                                                       over the network
  Greater control (than      private DBO)
                                                      Where private
   private DBO)              Additional               operator has a more
                              bureaucracy              conservative view of
                                                       risk than the private
                                                       DBO model


18800-392
Investment model summary                                                  15


 Joint venture model
 Overview of model
  Ownership of the network is split between the public
   and private sector

 Advantages                 Disadvantages              Recommended use
  Potential financial       Potential conflicts of    Where the interests
   benefit for both           interest may block         of the public and
   parties
                              creation / successful      private sectors can
  The use of special-        operation of the JV        be closely aligned
   purpose vehicles
   can make the model        Few examples of
   very scalable, and         implemented JVs to
   allow alternative          indicate best
   investment sources         practice


18800-392
Investment model summary                                                16


 Public design build and operate model
 Overview of model
  Public sector owns and operates a network without any
   private sector assistance

 Advantages                 Disadvantages            Recommended use
  Managing Authority        Size and scope          Where a Managing
   has full control to        limited by public        Authority needs
   promote competition                                 absolute control
                              expertise
   and enforce                                         over network
   standards                 Potentially excludes     operations
  Managing Authority         private sector          Where targeted
   can ensure socio-          expertise                investment will
   economic benefits                                   inspire investment
   are prioritised                                     from private sources


18800-392

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Broadband Investment Models - Government

  • 1. Presentation for QITCOM 2012 Guide to broadband investment 5th March 2011 • Pat Kidney 18800-392
  • 2. 2 Contents Introduction to Analysys Mason Aims of the guide to broadband investment Stages of investment planning Choice of investment model Overall recommendations 18800-392
  • 3. 3 Analysys Mason has considerable global experience in undertaking and assessing national broadband plans Wales 2004 -2010: Commercial and Ireland 2006-12: Malta 2011: Techno-economic feasibility of UK 2008: Broadband stakeholder UK 2005-2006: Development of technical strategy, business planning, Design, procurement and a national FTTH network group models for efficient public broadband scenarios for the BSG procurement and implementation implementation support sector interventions in next in the UK support as part of National fibre for the EUR 234m UK 2001 onwards: Broadband generation broadband broadband initiative National Broadband planning for regional development Wales 2006: Study to European Commission 2010- Scheme agencies on the UK UK 2008 onwards: support to Cornwall council in its promote public intervention 2011: Developed a guide for EU 2011 onwards: Socio-economic Next Generation Broadband in “second generation investment in broadband benefits of broadband in 27 EU project broadband” market infrastructure, covering small countries and private sector funding Thailand 2009: regional roll outs and national analysis Development of interventions alike national broadband plan Western Europe 2004: Brunei 2009-2010: Analysis of Internet Development of access prices in national broadband Western Europe strategy Singapore 2005-2006: UK 2010 onwards: Cost modelling Provided support on Next of next-generation broadband and Generation Broadband regional funding allocations Network Initiative Malaysia 2002-2003: National broadband policy development US 2002-2003 : Study of US broadband policy for TechNet Gulf 2010: Regulatory support in major Gulf country to define Chile 2007-2009: Broadband Morocco 2011: three- year internet promotion study in Chile National action plan development plan New Zealand 2010 - 2011: Libya 2009: Provided for the development Technical and cost reviews commercial and technical fixed of broadband underpinning the Government’s and wireless licence bid support national Ultra-Fast and Rural addressing i.a. national Broadband strategies broadband requirements. Italy 2001-2002: Analysis Norway 2002: Assessed EMEA 2011: National Israel 2011: Technical audit of national of government intervention the potential social and broadband market broadband solution used to evidence mechanisms and economic benefits from a assessment, international competitiveness and Australasia 2010- 2011: Operator prioritisation for broadband scheme to provide benchmarks and sufficient investment capability to the support to become national partner task force broadband to selected forecasts Government for ultra- fast broadband solution. Egypt 2008: Provided India 2010: Strategic public sector sites commercial and technical fixed Lesotho 2012: Australia 2009: STEM Subsequently carried out review of road- mapping and licence bid support addressing Development of license, training and solution and identification of global assessment of drivers for i.a. national broadband national modelling assistance for best practice the deployment of a requirements. broadband plan national fibre- optic National Broadband RefNo | Commercial in confidence project backbone in India
  • 4. 4 The guide provides best practice in planning a broadband investment  Affordable, good quality and open ICT infrastructure for all will support cohesion, innovation, and social, economic and political change  details planning and procurement issues that must be considered for broadband infrastructure investment  Important resource for meeting broadband targets  Essential for managing authorities to prioritise the long term socio-economic benefit of citizens over short term private financial gain 18800-392
  • 5. Stages of investment planning 5 The guide sets out seven key questions for planning a broadband investment Why should I invest in Define project aims to tackle market failures and/or broadband? deliver socio-economic benefits what and why? What type of network Understand the costs and benefits of different kinds infrastructure should I invest in? of infrastructure Understand the merits of each investment model How should I invest? and what might work best for you How do I manage/monitor the Ensure successful delivery and operation, and outcome? provide evidence for audit What can be done to ensure Understand the commercial case and your potential demand for services? role on the demand side What can be done to reduce the Include measures to reduce costs and manage risks cost and manage risks? What are the next steps that need Contribute to hitting the DAE targets by using EU to be taken? funds quickly and effectively 18800-392
  • 6. Choice of investment model 6 Five investment models provide a broad spectrum of funding options Group of end users oversee the contract to build and operate Bottom-up their own local network Public Public Private Managing sector design build design build Authority owns and and operate and operate provides a operates a 5 models grant to network private sector without any to assist in private deployment of sector new network assistance Joint Public venture outsourcing Ownership of the network is split Single contract for construction and between the public and private operation of network, but public sector sector retains ownership and some control 18800-392
  • 7. Choice of investment model 7 Each investment model will be applicable in different situations Summary of pros and cons of investment models Model Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use Bottom up • Long term, non- • Localised • Targeting localised areas profit view deployments • Leveraging small scale • Focuses demand • Differing technologies funding Private DBO • Larger scale • Funding threshold • Sufficient funding to attract • Low public burden • Limited control operators • Effective transferral of risk Public • Public financial • Reduced benefit to • Requirement for on-going outsourcing stability with private private sector control expertise • Additional • More conservative • Greater control bureaucracy operators Joint Venture • Risk sharing • Potential conflicts of • Public/private interests interest closely aligned Public DBO • Public organisation • Size and scope limited • Requirement for absolute has full control by public expertise control • Inspirational investment 18800-392
  • 8. Choice of investment model 8 The guide is illustrated with findings from operational projects 18800-392
  • 9. Overall recommendations 9 Overall recommendations are focused on delivering maximum benefit to end users  Socio economic benefit must be managed alongside project sustainability to deliver long term benefits Long term control by public sector can protect end user benefit, however the private operators can bring invaluable expertise Sustainability is critical as socio-economic benefits will take time  The bottom up model may suit small scale fibre projects Long term non-profit view of end users suits the fibre business case, but this may be difficult to leverage on a large scale  Small investments can provide a catalyst through partnerships  Open and non-discriminatory access to infrastructure supports effective competition However, the investment requirements for passive and active access must be carefully considered 18800-392
  • 10. Overall recommendations 10 The guide also covers funding, state aid and the steps to broadband delivery EU funding application Preparation Procurement Procurement Contract Broadband and design activity award delivery planning State aid compliance 18800-392
  • 11. 11 Contact details Pat Kidney Senior Manager, Head of Ireland pat.kidney@analysysmason.com Analysys Mason Limited Suite 242, The Capel Building Mary's Abbey Dublin 7, Ireland Tel: +353 1 602 4755 Fax: +353 1 602 4777 www.analysysmason.com Registered in Ireland IR304061 18800-392
  • 12. Investment model summary 12 Bottom-up model Overview of model  Group of end users oversee the contract to build and operate their own local network Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use  Long-term, non-  Difficult to replicate  For targeting profit view, suitable local “intensity” on a localised areas and for high-cost large scale for gaining the most infrastructure (e.g.  Localised benefit from small FTTH) deployments, with amounts of funding  Focuses demand risk of differing and encourages technologies local social cohesion 18800-392
  • 13. Investment model summary 13 Private design build and operate model Overview of model  Managing Authority provides a grant to private sector to assist in deployment of new network Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use  Larger scale (than  There is a minimum  Larger-scale bottom up) funding threshold to  Where the level of  Low public burden, attract private funding attracts which can lead to interest private interest faster deployments  Limited control over  Where the network operations may operations (and risk) reduce the socio- can be transferred to economic impact private sector 18800-392
  • 14. Investment model summary 14 Public outsourcing model Overview of model  Single contract for construction and operation of network but public sector retains ownership and some control Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use  Public financial  Reduced financial  Where Managing stability with private benefit to private Authority requires a expertise high level of control sector (compared to over the network  Greater control (than private DBO)  Where private private DBO)  Additional operator has a more bureaucracy conservative view of risk than the private DBO model 18800-392
  • 15. Investment model summary 15 Joint venture model Overview of model  Ownership of the network is split between the public and private sector Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use  Potential financial  Potential conflicts of  Where the interests benefit for both interest may block of the public and parties creation / successful private sectors can  The use of special- operation of the JV be closely aligned purpose vehicles can make the model  Few examples of very scalable, and implemented JVs to allow alternative indicate best investment sources practice 18800-392
  • 16. Investment model summary 16 Public design build and operate model Overview of model  Public sector owns and operates a network without any private sector assistance Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use  Managing Authority  Size and scope  Where a Managing has full control to limited by public Authority needs promote competition absolute control expertise and enforce over network standards  Potentially excludes operations  Managing Authority private sector  Where targeted can ensure socio- expertise investment will economic benefits inspire investment are prioritised from private sources 18800-392