Analysis and Commentary| USA| Key Macro and Micro Indicators| December 2020 and January 2021
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Stimuluses work the best when they are targeted at specific outcomes - https://www.barrons.com/articles/1-9-trillion-is-too-much-stimulus-51612645043 USA like many countries is struggling with a job crisis - https://www.prweb.com/releases/the_u_s_private_sector_job_quality_index_jqi_january_2021/prweb17713226.htm GDP outlook - https://conference-board.org/research/us-forecast
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Blog – Canada – May 2021 and April 2021 Economic Scorecard
1. GDP - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-gdp-fell-0-3-in-april-271625057198
2. ADP - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-june-private-payrolls-jobs-market-pandemic-economy-recovery-121542029.html
3. Net Zero - https://ipolitics.ca/2021/06/29/net-zero-canada-is-lagging-in-climate-change-fight-nrcan/
4. Housing affordability - https://storeys.com/canadian-soaring-home-prices-deteriorating-affordability-rbc/
5. Public Sector - https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/bencan/ontario-caps-salary-and-performance-pay-for-public-sector-executives/
6. Stock performance - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPTSE/history/
7. Net zero - https://www.corporateknights.com/channels/responsible-investing/are-corporations-getting-trapped-in-net-zero-16249640/
8. Commodity Prices - https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/commodities/how-are-higher-commodity-prices-and-shipping-disruption-affecting-the-energy-transition-sector/
9. Natural resources - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210623/dq210623a-eng.pdf or https://www.northernminer.com/news/report-outlines-what-canada-must-do-to-secure-supply-of-critical-minerals/1003832240/
10. Building Permits - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-building-permits-slip-0-5-in-april-271622638203
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Canada| Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| April 2021 and May 2021
Blog – Canada – May 2021 and April 2021 Economic Scorecard
1. GDP - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-gdp-fell-0-3-in-april-271625057198
2. ADP - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-june-private-payrolls-jobs-market-pandemic-economy-recovery-121542029.html
3. Net Zero - https://ipolitics.ca/2021/06/29/net-zero-canada-is-lagging-in-climate-change-fight-nrcan/
4. Housing affordability - https://storeys.com/canadian-soaring-home-prices-deteriorating-affordability-rbc/
5. Public Sector - https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/bencan/ontario-caps-salary-and-performance-pay-for-public-sector-executives/
6. Stock performance - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPTSE/history/
7. Net zero - https://www.corporateknights.com/channels/responsible-investing/are-corporations-getting-trapped-in-net-zero-16249640/
8. Commodity Prices - https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/commodities/how-are-higher-commodity-prices-and-shipping-disruption-affecting-the-energy-transition-sector/
9. Natural resources - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210623/dq210623a-eng.pdf or https://www.northernminer.com/news/report-outlines-what-canada-must-do-to-secure-supply-of-critical-minerals/1003832240/
10. Building Permits - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-building-permits-slip-0-5-in-april-271622638203
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Key Macro and Micro Indicators| United States| July 2021 and August 2021
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Durable Goods and Capital Spending| USA and the World| March 2021
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Canada| Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| May 2021 and June 2021
1. Currency - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-fx-debt-canadian-dollar-set-for-weekly-gain-as-economy-rebounds-2021-07-30
2. GDP - https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/canada-gdp-economy-shrinks-in-may-but-picked-up-in-june-with-reopening-124143850.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL8oLQFsM6QmPPWwzzQ3Ex6v_mywj26rd9ZwaebSc8QJ2S68jBh4L8m-hKVmILz3dEZmOqZdmOrPSzGiiQ30O84FKD4g-LNgEs0Gn3ewX0PK0GGQagXF0YO0wj--Yy_foq0Ewb5CQYhAhSyYrgti2TJ7f6SpFqlR-cMYbZnrSZVG
3. FDI - https://globaladvantageconsulting.com/canada-must-rethink-its-intangible-economy-strategy/
4. Inflation - https://globalnews.ca/news/8062946/higher-inflation-canada-could-last-years/
5. Circular economy - https://www.recyclingstartups.org/country/Canada/
6. ESG reporting - https://manifestclimate.com/blog/tcfd-reporting-requirements-canada/ and https://ibm.box.com/s/vmyitcackqevvm1hcxv7wke6gudrpnce
7. Global outlook - https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html
8. Recovery - https://plumbingandhvac.ca/economic-recovery-slow-but-steady-report/
9. Automation - https://www.automationmag.com/category/news
10. Competitiveness - https://financialpost.com/fp-work/canada-is-losing-its-competitive-edge-for-attracting-talent
Canada and the World GDP Analysis - July 2023.pptx
Blog – GDP – Canada – May 2023
Summary:
Canadian economic momentum decelerated in the second quarter after an unexpectedly strong start to the year.
Preliminary data suggest gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in June, the first contraction this year, led lower by the wholesale and manufacturing sectors, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa.
That followed a 0.3% expansion in May, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canadian bond yields ticked higher; the loonie initially rose, then gave back those gains.
Overall, the monthly gains — including April’s 0.1% boost — point to annualized growth of 1% in the second quarter. Although it will likely be revised, that’s slower than the 1.5% pace projected by the Bank of Canada earlier this month, and much weaker than the 3.1% growth in the first three months of 2023.
“We’re starting to see some evidence that almost 500 basis of points of tightening, compressed in a very short window of time, is starting to have an impact on the economy more broadly,” Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said on BNN Bloomberg Television. “We’re seeing it in areas like housing, we’re seeing it areas like consumer spending, where spending volumes at the retail level have really flattened out.”
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-gdp-for-may-03-versus-03-expected-20230728/ or https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-growth-slows-to-1-in-second-quarter-gdp-shrank-in-june-1.1951959
Other sources and Links
Commodities – https://www.bqprime.com/markets/waning-us-recession-fears-not-the-only-factor-driving-commodity-surge-says-gavekal
Forestry - https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_ministers_express_strong_disagreement_with_U_S_decision_on_softwood_lumber_duties_108828/
Natural Gas - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/28/natural-gas-heat-waves-climate/
Housing - https://dailyhive.com/canada/experts-say-canada-less-affordable-td
Core Inflation - https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/why-canadian-inflation-is-about-to-move-higher
Global GDP = https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/economics-intelligence/2023/july-global-economic-forecasts/
ESG - https://www.ft.com/content/7a98cba4-2977-40d6-bf99-dea74d479607
Geopolitical - https://worldview.stratfor.com/
Food and AG - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/28/british-crop-yields-rise-despite-cut-in-fertiliser-use-research-finds or https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-28/Reasons-why-food-inflation-isn-t-going-away.html
Supply Chain - https://www.autoserviceworld.com/supply-chain-labour-disruptions-way-up-this-year/
Manufacturing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-july-2023pptx
Oil - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Oil-prices-slip-on-demand-concerns-remain-on-track-for-weekly-gain--44446975/
Merchandise Trade| USA| January 2021
Oil Imports - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776 and Saudi Arabia - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-imports-of-saudi-crude-won-t-stay-zero-for-long-1.1546425
China is EU largest trading partner - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56093378
Trade gap rose in January 2021 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-deficit-widened-in-january-as-americans-bought-more-imported-goods-11614952447
Stronger consumer demand - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-deficit-widens-in-january-11614952647
Chip Shortage - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-semiconductors-tools-idUSKBN2AW18P
Clean Technology Metals - https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/25/usa-launches-battery-supply-chain-investigation/. China controls a large portion of metals required to support clean technology - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-what-is-next-for-raw-materials
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Key Macro and Micro Indicators for Canada| December 2020 and January 2021
This document provides an overview and analysis of key macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators for Canada in December 2020 and January 2021. It discusses employment levels declining further in January, rising housing prices and building permit activity dominated by housing construction, mixed performance in manufacturing, and higher exports partially offsetting declines in oil exports in December. It also reviews commodity prices, inflation rising in January driven by durable goods and gasoline, and issues around procurement and fiscal management in Canada. In summary, the document indicates Canada is facing challenges around job losses, GDP growth lagging peers, and fiscal sustainability concerns at all levels of government.
What is Monetary Policy and How does Government deal with Monetary Policies
This document discusses monetary policy and why it is important to governments. It provides background on the author Paul Young and his expertise. The document then covers topics such as what monetary policy is, Canada's issues with inflation, housing costs and household debt levels. It argues that the Canadian government needs to consider monetary policies as part of fiscal management and that current inflation levels are a concern for the Bank of Canada.
Monetary Policy | Fiscal and Economic Policies| Public Sector| Government
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and its importance to government. It begins with an introduction of the author Paul Young and his background. The agenda then outlines topics to be covered, including definitions of monetary policy, discussions of inflation and producer prices in Canada, issues around housing, cost of living, household debt, GDP, and fiscal management. Slides and sources are referenced throughout to provide additional context. The overall message is that monetary policy and fiscal management should work in coordination to address economic challenges facing Canada.
Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| The United States| June 2021 and July 2021
Blog – Canada – Economic and Fiscal Scorecard – June 2021 and July 2021
1. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/inflation-expectations-spike-to-record-at-canadian-businesses-1.1644394
2. The Mfg. plan, should is based on four pillars – workforce, innovation, exports, and a net-zero strategy https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/cme-manufacturers-call-for-a-concrete-plan-on-economic-recovery-272714/ You would think good-paying jobs would be Trudeau's focus, right? Nope attacking Harper is the focus. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-canada-june-2021
3. https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2021/08/30/food-processors-want-action-from-the-next-federal-government/#.YSzGdN8pDQx If food processors want better policies, then they should not be voting for either @theJagmeetSingh or @JustinTrudeau as all they know how to do is tax and spend! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-and-farm-equipment-sector-july-2021@CPC_HQ
4. Job vacancies - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/are-sky-high-job-vacancies-in-canada-around-for-a-while/
5. Circular economy - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/25/canada-and-the-nordic-countries-are-allies-in-transitioning-to-a-circular-economy-envoys/312761
6. Housing - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-housing-affordability-got-worse-under-trudeau-but-did-he-do-the-worst/
7. USA and Canada Trade - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/30/reliance-on-u-s-remains-a-threat-to-canadian-economy/314006
8. Climate change - https://www.corporateknights.com/responsible-investing/why-are-canadian-pensions-risking-our-future-by-funding-fossil-fuel-expansion/
9. International support - https://www.international.gc.ca/gac-amc/publications/odaaa-lrmado/report-rapport-18-19.aspx?lang=eng
10. Infrastructure - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/25/transportation-infrastructure-key-for-canadas-economic-recovery/313242
Employment| USA| November 2020
The document summarizes United States employment data for November 2020. It provides employment figures by month, demographic breakdowns by sex and race, and revisions to net new job additions for previous months. Additionally, it references an analysis from BMO Capital Markets of overall US employment trends.
Fiscal and Economic Scorecar| The United States| December 2021 and November 2021
Blog – Economic and Fiscal Scorecard – The United States – December 2021 and November 2021
The USA show a strong GDP growth for 2021.
The USA healthcare system continues to face many challenges.
Wage growth hit the highest growth in decades.
High inflation and the cost of housing are big concerns for Americans.
Business automation continues to be a key focus areas for both the private and public Sectors.
1. USA GDP - https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-economy-grew-faster-expected-2021-pandemic-transformed-its
2. Stock market - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-good-things-rbc-sees-in-the-u-s-stock-market-following-januarys-selloff-11643660195
3. Overworked - https://20somethingfinance.com/american-hours-worked-productivity-vacation/
4. Productivity - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/01/25/fixed-broadband-network-performance-key-to-us-productivity/?sh=7f8f8526333c
5. Wages - https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more
6. Fab production - https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/chip-fabs-are-coming-us-will-there-be-enough-skilled-workers
7. Critical metals - https://ca.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/972757/australian-strategic-materials-well-funded-to-advance-critical-metals-asset-in-nsw-and-south-korean-value-add-972757.html
8. Circular and green economy - https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/reshaping-traditional-value-chains.html
9. Food costs - https://www.kwtx.com/2022/01/31/grocery-store-prices-continue-rise-amid-inflation-supply-chain-issues/
10. Housing - https://www.fox5atlanta.com/money/homeownership-prices-rise-affordability-falls
11. Healthcare - https://www.fox5atlanta.com/money/homeownership-prices-rise-affordability-falls
12. Automation - https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/google-cloud-automation-anywhere-rpa
13. Business trends - https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/google-cloud-automation-anywhere-rpa
14. RPA - https://enterprisersproject.com/article/2022/1/4-robotic-process-automation-rpa-trends-watch-2022
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - July 2022....
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending – United States and the World
Summary:
Few orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods were virtually unchanged in the month of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders edged down by less than a tenth of a percent in July after surging by a revised 2.2 percent in June.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 2.0 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding a pullback in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent for the second straight month. Ex-transportation orders were expected to inch up by 0.2 percent.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-unchanged-in-july
Retail Sales| United States| October 2020
The document discusses trends in the US retail sector, including high levels of debt forcing restructuring, the expansion of e-commerce, and bankruptcies of major retailers in 2020. It also covers topics like commercial properties being acquired by Amazon, declines in consumer spending, the use of analytics in retail and supply chains, and how technologies like RPA, augmented reality, and AI assistants are impacting the industry. The presentation agenda and contact information for the presenter Paul Young is provided.
Canada GDP Analysis and Commentary - March 2023.pptx
Blog – GDP Analysis and Commentary – Canada – March 2023
Real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in March, following a 0.1% increase in February. Service-producing industries (+0.0%) were flat, whereas goods-producing industries (-0.1%) edged down. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases in March.
Public sector continues upward momentum
The public sector (educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration combined) continued its upward momentum, increasing 0.3% in March and rising continuously since February 2022.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230531/dq230531b-eng.htm
Additional sources and links
GDP / Canada - https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/canadas-q1-gdp-outperforms-with-3-1-growth-april-seen-up-0-2
Government spending - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/canada-economy-grows-3-1-in-first-quarter-beating-expectations#xj4y7vzkg
Oil Production - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-is-opec-cutting-oil-output-2023-05-30/
LNG Production - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/european-gas-slips-as-sluggish-chinese-data-damps-lng-demand-1.1926881
Food costs and security - https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/under-pressure-government-looks-food-191700923.html
Tech Trends - https://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/tech-business-trends-to-watch-in-2023/
ESG - https://environment-analyst.com/global/109439/from-compliance-to-value-creation-preparing-for-esg-disclosure-rules
Advertising - https://www.adweek.com/agencies/global-ad-spend-on-the-rise-but-digital-growth-is-slowing/
Global Inflation - https://www.euromonitor.com/article/global-inflation-tracker-q2-2023-inflation-trends-down-but-labour-markets-pressure-services-prices
Lithium - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/chile-sees-lithium-swinging-into-surplus-as-new-supply-arrives-1.1926597
Productivity - https://energynow.ca/2023/05/philip-cross-canadas-worst-decade-for-real-economic-growth-since-the-1930s-learn-why-here/
Manufacturing - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-economic-growth-tops-forecasts-boosting-rate-hike-odds-1.1927014
Employment and Labour Market - United States - March 2022.pptx
Summary:
24% of the new jobs are with professional and business services sector. This sector requires years of education and certifications.
26% of the jobs are with leisure and hospitality sector. This sector tends to pay less than the average wage
Businesses continue to look at ways to automate their operations
More and more organizations are moving to a digital model. The adoption appears to be slowing down due to skill gap issues.
Biden has invoked a law from 1950s as part of building a critical metal supply
USA states are struggling to develop their natural resources in a sustainable way!
Retail Sales| Australia| November 2020
Australian retail sales increased by 13.3 percent last November, compared to the same time in 2019, according to official data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Key Macro and Micro Indicators| United States| September 2021 and August 2021
The document summarizes key performance indicators for the United States economy in September and August 2021. It includes data on GDP, durable goods orders, retail sales, inflation, employment, trade deficits, stock markets, housing, and fiscal updates. The author is an expert in various areas of business and economics such as risk management, auditing, and supply chain management. He provides sources for further research on US economic indicators.
Scorecard: Government and Economic Performance - November 2015 to April 2020
This document provides an economic and fiscal scorecard for Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from November 2015 to April 2020. It includes data on GDP growth, deficits, stock markets, affordability, wages, commodity prices, manufacturing sales, housing, and budget deficit projections. Sources of data are cited from organizations like RBC, TD Bank, Statistics Canada, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Contact information is provided for Paul Young, CPA, CGA, who compiled the scorecard and offers training on related economic and policy topics.
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - USA - Durable Goods - February 2022.pptx
This document provides an overview and analysis of durable goods and capital spending in the United States and globally in February 2022. It includes:
- Data on US durable goods orders in February 2022 which showed no change from the previous month.
- Discussion of the business investment outlook for 2021-2022, noting expectations for a wave of investment.
- An agenda covering topics like durable goods trends, the supply chain, capital expenditure planning, and blogs on building supply chain resilience and challenges with ESG reporting.
- Background and contact information for the author, Paul Young, an expert in various areas of business including indicators, auditing, and emerging technology.
GDP| United States| June 2020
The document is a presentation by Paul Young CPA CGA about US GDP and economic metrics for June and July 2020. It includes sections on US GDP for June 2020, key metrics for June like retail sales and oil production, deficit and debt trackers, and predictions on what's next for the global economy. Contact information and links to additional materials are provided at the end.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptx
Canadian retail sales dropped 0.3% in August, the first decline since March, as higher interest rates start to impact household budgets. Seven of the nine retail subsectors saw sales increases in July, led by food and beverage retailers, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decrease. Excluding autos, retail sales in July rose 1%, double expectations. The report suggests Canadians are tightening spending as more face higher mortgage payments and gas prices due to Bank of Canada rate hikes aimed at slowing inflation.
Addressing issues with the Public Sector Governance Model.pptx
The key challenges facing Australian business leaders in 2023 include:
1. Talent acquisition, retention and training staff for digital transformation.
2. Implementing successful digital transformation while managing cyber risks.
3. Adapting to changing regulations and reporting requirements.
Health risks from COVID-19, social reputation concerns, and disruptive emerging technologies are also significant social challenges impacting Australian businesses. Over the next 3-5 years, talent management for digitization, cybersecurity, digital transformation, regulatory changes, and identifying new growth opportunities will be the top challenges according to business leaders.
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Similar to Analysis and Commentary| USA| Key Macro and Micro Indicators| December 2020 and January 2021
Key Macro and Micro Indicators - United States - May 2022 and April 2022.pptx
The document provides a summary of key performance indicators for the United States economy in May and April 2022. It includes data on GDP, durable goods, retail sales, inflation, employment, trade, stock market, housing, and fiscal updates. A variety of sources are cited from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, and others. The presentation outlines economic trends and what may come next for the US and global economies.
Durable Goods and Capital Spending| USA and the World| March 2021
The document provides an agenda for a presentation on durable goods and capital spending in the United States. The agenda includes summaries of durable goods data for March 2021, a business investment outlook for 2021, topics on supply chain and analytics, and capital expenditure planning. It also references a blog post about increasing supply chain resiliency through investments in inventory optimization, cloud computing, robotics/automation, and sensors.
Canada| Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| May 2021 and June 2021
1. Currency - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-fx-debt-canadian-dollar-set-for-weekly-gain-as-economy-rebounds-2021-07-30
2. GDP - https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/canada-gdp-economy-shrinks-in-may-but-picked-up-in-june-with-reopening-124143850.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL8oLQFsM6QmPPWwzzQ3Ex6v_mywj26rd9ZwaebSc8QJ2S68jBh4L8m-hKVmILz3dEZmOqZdmOrPSzGiiQ30O84FKD4g-LNgEs0Gn3ewX0PK0GGQagXF0YO0wj--Yy_foq0Ewb5CQYhAhSyYrgti2TJ7f6SpFqlR-cMYbZnrSZVG
3. FDI - https://globaladvantageconsulting.com/canada-must-rethink-its-intangible-economy-strategy/
4. Inflation - https://globalnews.ca/news/8062946/higher-inflation-canada-could-last-years/
5. Circular economy - https://www.recyclingstartups.org/country/Canada/
6. ESG reporting - https://manifestclimate.com/blog/tcfd-reporting-requirements-canada/ and https://ibm.box.com/s/vmyitcackqevvm1hcxv7wke6gudrpnce
7. Global outlook - https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html
8. Recovery - https://plumbingandhvac.ca/economic-recovery-slow-but-steady-report/
9. Automation - https://www.automationmag.com/category/news
10. Competitiveness - https://financialpost.com/fp-work/canada-is-losing-its-competitive-edge-for-attracting-talent
Canada and the World GDP Analysis - July 2023.pptx
Blog – GDP – Canada – May 2023
Summary:
Canadian economic momentum decelerated in the second quarter after an unexpectedly strong start to the year.
Preliminary data suggest gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in June, the first contraction this year, led lower by the wholesale and manufacturing sectors, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa.
That followed a 0.3% expansion in May, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canadian bond yields ticked higher; the loonie initially rose, then gave back those gains.
Overall, the monthly gains — including April’s 0.1% boost — point to annualized growth of 1% in the second quarter. Although it will likely be revised, that’s slower than the 1.5% pace projected by the Bank of Canada earlier this month, and much weaker than the 3.1% growth in the first three months of 2023.
“We’re starting to see some evidence that almost 500 basis of points of tightening, compressed in a very short window of time, is starting to have an impact on the economy more broadly,” Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said on BNN Bloomberg Television. “We’re seeing it in areas like housing, we’re seeing it areas like consumer spending, where spending volumes at the retail level have really flattened out.”
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-gdp-for-may-03-versus-03-expected-20230728/ or https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-growth-slows-to-1-in-second-quarter-gdp-shrank-in-june-1.1951959
Other sources and Links
Commodities – https://www.bqprime.com/markets/waning-us-recession-fears-not-the-only-factor-driving-commodity-surge-says-gavekal
Forestry - https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Canadian_ministers_express_strong_disagreement_with_U_S_decision_on_softwood_lumber_duties_108828/
Natural Gas - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/28/natural-gas-heat-waves-climate/
Housing - https://dailyhive.com/canada/experts-say-canada-less-affordable-td
Core Inflation - https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/why-canadian-inflation-is-about-to-move-higher
Global GDP = https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/economics-intelligence/2023/july-global-economic-forecasts/
ESG - https://www.ft.com/content/7a98cba4-2977-40d6-bf99-dea74d479607
Geopolitical - https://worldview.stratfor.com/
Food and AG - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/28/british-crop-yields-rise-despite-cut-in-fertiliser-use-research-finds or https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-28/Reasons-why-food-inflation-isn-t-going-away.html
Supply Chain - https://www.autoserviceworld.com/supply-chain-labour-disruptions-way-up-this-year/
Manufacturing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-july-2023pptx
Oil - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Oil-prices-slip-on-demand-concerns-remain-on-track-for-weekly-gain--44446975/
Merchandise Trade| USA| January 2021
Oil Imports - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776 and Saudi Arabia - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-imports-of-saudi-crude-won-t-stay-zero-for-long-1.1546425
China is EU largest trading partner - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56093378
Trade gap rose in January 2021 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-deficit-widened-in-january-as-americans-bought-more-imported-goods-11614952447
Stronger consumer demand - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-deficit-widens-in-january-11614952647
Chip Shortage - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-semiconductors-tools-idUSKBN2AW18P
Clean Technology Metals - https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/25/usa-launches-battery-supply-chain-investigation/. China controls a large portion of metals required to support clean technology - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-what-is-next-for-raw-materials
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Key Macro and Micro Indicators for Canada| December 2020 and January 2021
This document provides an overview and analysis of key macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators for Canada in December 2020 and January 2021. It discusses employment levels declining further in January, rising housing prices and building permit activity dominated by housing construction, mixed performance in manufacturing, and higher exports partially offsetting declines in oil exports in December. It also reviews commodity prices, inflation rising in January driven by durable goods and gasoline, and issues around procurement and fiscal management in Canada. In summary, the document indicates Canada is facing challenges around job losses, GDP growth lagging peers, and fiscal sustainability concerns at all levels of government.
What is Monetary Policy and How does Government deal with Monetary Policies
This document discusses monetary policy and why it is important to governments. It provides background on the author Paul Young and his expertise. The document then covers topics such as what monetary policy is, Canada's issues with inflation, housing costs and household debt levels. It argues that the Canadian government needs to consider monetary policies as part of fiscal management and that current inflation levels are a concern for the Bank of Canada.
Monetary Policy | Fiscal and Economic Policies| Public Sector| Government
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and its importance to government. It begins with an introduction of the author Paul Young and his background. The agenda then outlines topics to be covered, including definitions of monetary policy, discussions of inflation and producer prices in Canada, issues around housing, cost of living, household debt, GDP, and fiscal management. Slides and sources are referenced throughout to provide additional context. The overall message is that monetary policy and fiscal management should work in coordination to address economic challenges facing Canada.
Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| The United States| June 2021 and July 2021
Blog – Canada – Economic and Fiscal Scorecard – June 2021 and July 2021
1. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/inflation-expectations-spike-to-record-at-canadian-businesses-1.1644394
2. The Mfg. plan, should is based on four pillars – workforce, innovation, exports, and a net-zero strategy https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/cme-manufacturers-call-for-a-concrete-plan-on-economic-recovery-272714/ You would think good-paying jobs would be Trudeau's focus, right? Nope attacking Harper is the focus. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-canada-june-2021
3. https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2021/08/30/food-processors-want-action-from-the-next-federal-government/#.YSzGdN8pDQx If food processors want better policies, then they should not be voting for either @theJagmeetSingh or @JustinTrudeau as all they know how to do is tax and spend! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-and-farm-equipment-sector-july-2021@CPC_HQ
4. Job vacancies - https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/are-sky-high-job-vacancies-in-canada-around-for-a-while/
5. Circular economy - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/25/canada-and-the-nordic-countries-are-allies-in-transitioning-to-a-circular-economy-envoys/312761
6. Housing - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-housing-affordability-got-worse-under-trudeau-but-did-he-do-the-worst/
7. USA and Canada Trade - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/30/reliance-on-u-s-remains-a-threat-to-canadian-economy/314006
8. Climate change - https://www.corporateknights.com/responsible-investing/why-are-canadian-pensions-risking-our-future-by-funding-fossil-fuel-expansion/
9. International support - https://www.international.gc.ca/gac-amc/publications/odaaa-lrmado/report-rapport-18-19.aspx?lang=eng
10. Infrastructure - https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/25/transportation-infrastructure-key-for-canadas-economic-recovery/313242
Employment| USA| November 2020
The document summarizes United States employment data for November 2020. It provides employment figures by month, demographic breakdowns by sex and race, and revisions to net new job additions for previous months. Additionally, it references an analysis from BMO Capital Markets of overall US employment trends.
Fiscal and Economic Scorecar| The United States| December 2021 and November 2021
Blog – Economic and Fiscal Scorecard – The United States – December 2021 and November 2021
The USA show a strong GDP growth for 2021.
The USA healthcare system continues to face many challenges.
Wage growth hit the highest growth in decades.
High inflation and the cost of housing are big concerns for Americans.
Business automation continues to be a key focus areas for both the private and public Sectors.
1. USA GDP - https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-economy-grew-faster-expected-2021-pandemic-transformed-its
2. Stock market - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-good-things-rbc-sees-in-the-u-s-stock-market-following-januarys-selloff-11643660195
3. Overworked - https://20somethingfinance.com/american-hours-worked-productivity-vacation/
4. Productivity - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/01/25/fixed-broadband-network-performance-key-to-us-productivity/?sh=7f8f8526333c
5. Wages - https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more
6. Fab production - https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/chip-fabs-are-coming-us-will-there-be-enough-skilled-workers
7. Critical metals - https://ca.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/972757/australian-strategic-materials-well-funded-to-advance-critical-metals-asset-in-nsw-and-south-korean-value-add-972757.html
8. Circular and green economy - https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/reshaping-traditional-value-chains.html
9. Food costs - https://www.kwtx.com/2022/01/31/grocery-store-prices-continue-rise-amid-inflation-supply-chain-issues/
10. Housing - https://www.fox5atlanta.com/money/homeownership-prices-rise-affordability-falls
11. Healthcare - https://www.fox5atlanta.com/money/homeownership-prices-rise-affordability-falls
12. Automation - https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/google-cloud-automation-anywhere-rpa
13. Business trends - https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/google-cloud-automation-anywhere-rpa
14. RPA - https://enterprisersproject.com/article/2022/1/4-robotic-process-automation-rpa-trends-watch-2022
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - July 2022....
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending – United States and the World
Summary:
Few orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods were virtually unchanged in the month of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders edged down by less than a tenth of a percent in July after surging by a revised 2.2 percent in June.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 2.0 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding a pullback in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent for the second straight month. Ex-transportation orders were expected to inch up by 0.2 percent.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-unchanged-in-july
Retail Sales| United States| October 2020
The document discusses trends in the US retail sector, including high levels of debt forcing restructuring, the expansion of e-commerce, and bankruptcies of major retailers in 2020. It also covers topics like commercial properties being acquired by Amazon, declines in consumer spending, the use of analytics in retail and supply chains, and how technologies like RPA, augmented reality, and AI assistants are impacting the industry. The presentation agenda and contact information for the presenter Paul Young is provided.
Canada GDP Analysis and Commentary - March 2023.pptx
Blog – GDP Analysis and Commentary – Canada – March 2023
Real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in March, following a 0.1% increase in February. Service-producing industries (+0.0%) were flat, whereas goods-producing industries (-0.1%) edged down. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases in March.
Public sector continues upward momentum
The public sector (educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration combined) continued its upward momentum, increasing 0.3% in March and rising continuously since February 2022.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230531/dq230531b-eng.htm
Additional sources and links
GDP / Canada - https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/canadas-q1-gdp-outperforms-with-3-1-growth-april-seen-up-0-2
Government spending - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/canada-economy-grows-3-1-in-first-quarter-beating-expectations#xj4y7vzkg
Oil Production - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-is-opec-cutting-oil-output-2023-05-30/
LNG Production - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/european-gas-slips-as-sluggish-chinese-data-damps-lng-demand-1.1926881
Food costs and security - https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/under-pressure-government-looks-food-191700923.html
Tech Trends - https://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/tech-business-trends-to-watch-in-2023/
ESG - https://environment-analyst.com/global/109439/from-compliance-to-value-creation-preparing-for-esg-disclosure-rules
Advertising - https://www.adweek.com/agencies/global-ad-spend-on-the-rise-but-digital-growth-is-slowing/
Global Inflation - https://www.euromonitor.com/article/global-inflation-tracker-q2-2023-inflation-trends-down-but-labour-markets-pressure-services-prices
Lithium - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/chile-sees-lithium-swinging-into-surplus-as-new-supply-arrives-1.1926597
Productivity - https://energynow.ca/2023/05/philip-cross-canadas-worst-decade-for-real-economic-growth-since-the-1930s-learn-why-here/
Manufacturing - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-economic-growth-tops-forecasts-boosting-rate-hike-odds-1.1927014
Employment and Labour Market - United States - March 2022.pptx
Summary:
24% of the new jobs are with professional and business services sector. This sector requires years of education and certifications.
26% of the jobs are with leisure and hospitality sector. This sector tends to pay less than the average wage
Businesses continue to look at ways to automate their operations
More and more organizations are moving to a digital model. The adoption appears to be slowing down due to skill gap issues.
Biden has invoked a law from 1950s as part of building a critical metal supply
USA states are struggling to develop their natural resources in a sustainable way!
Retail Sales| Australia| November 2020
Australian retail sales increased by 13.3 percent last November, compared to the same time in 2019, according to official data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Key Macro and Micro Indicators| United States| September 2021 and August 2021
The document summarizes key performance indicators for the United States economy in September and August 2021. It includes data on GDP, durable goods orders, retail sales, inflation, employment, trade deficits, stock markets, housing, and fiscal updates. The author is an expert in various areas of business and economics such as risk management, auditing, and supply chain management. He provides sources for further research on US economic indicators.
Scorecard: Government and Economic Performance - November 2015 to April 2020
This document provides an economic and fiscal scorecard for Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from November 2015 to April 2020. It includes data on GDP growth, deficits, stock markets, affordability, wages, commodity prices, manufacturing sales, housing, and budget deficit projections. Sources of data are cited from organizations like RBC, TD Bank, Statistics Canada, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Contact information is provided for Paul Young, CPA, CGA, who compiled the scorecard and offers training on related economic and policy topics.
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - USA - Durable Goods - February 2022.pptx
This document provides an overview and analysis of durable goods and capital spending in the United States and globally in February 2022. It includes:
- Data on US durable goods orders in February 2022 which showed no change from the previous month.
- Discussion of the business investment outlook for 2021-2022, noting expectations for a wave of investment.
- An agenda covering topics like durable goods trends, the supply chain, capital expenditure planning, and blogs on building supply chain resilience and challenges with ESG reporting.
- Background and contact information for the author, Paul Young, an expert in various areas of business including indicators, auditing, and emerging technology.
GDP| United States| June 2020
The document is a presentation by Paul Young CPA CGA about US GDP and economic metrics for June and July 2020. It includes sections on US GDP for June 2020, key metrics for June like retail sales and oil production, deficit and debt trackers, and predictions on what's next for the global economy. Contact information and links to additional materials are provided at the end.
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What is Monetary Policy and How does Government deal with Monetary Policies
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Durable Goods and Capital Spending - USA - Durable Goods - February 2022.pptx
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More from paul young cpa, cga
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptx
Canadian retail sales dropped 0.3% in August, the first decline since March, as higher interest rates start to impact household budgets. Seven of the nine retail subsectors saw sales increases in July, led by food and beverage retailers, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decrease. Excluding autos, retail sales in July rose 1%, double expectations. The report suggests Canadians are tightening spending as more face higher mortgage payments and gas prices due to Bank of Canada rate hikes aimed at slowing inflation.
Addressing issues with the Public Sector Governance Model.pptx
The key challenges facing Australian business leaders in 2023 include:
1. Talent acquisition, retention and training staff for digital transformation.
2. Implementing successful digital transformation while managing cyber risks.
3. Adapting to changing regulations and reporting requirements.
Health risks from COVID-19, social reputation concerns, and disruptive emerging technologies are also significant social challenges impacting Australian businesses. Over the next 3-5 years, talent management for digitization, cybersecurity, digital transformation, regulatory changes, and identifying new growth opportunities will be the top challenges according to business leaders.
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptx
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
What is next for the Mining Sector.pptx
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Manufacturing Sector – United States – August 2023.pptx
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptx
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Manufacturing Sector – Canada – September 2023.pptx
- Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.6% in July, led by higher sales in food products, petroleum and coal products, and transportation equipment. Paper and plastics sales decreased the most.
- Inventory levels increased slightly while unfilled orders decreased, pointing to a potential slowdown.
- The manufacturing sector in Canada will continue to face challenges such as global economic uncertainty, rising costs, supply chain issues, climate change risks, and skills shortages.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptx
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Logistics Warehousing Transportation and Distrbution Analysis and Commentary ...
The document provides an overview of key metrics and trends in the logistics, warehousing, distribution, and transportation sector. It includes data on consumer price index, diesel fuel costs, freight indexes, e-commerce sales, retail sales, class 8 truck sales, EPA emissions standards, trailer sales, and tonnage. It also discusses supply chain management solutions like planning analytics, blockchain, and AI assistants. Finally, it touches on topics like infrastructure spending, automation, and ESG reporting.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - United States - ...
United States retail sales rose 0.6% in August despite flat sales at internet retailers after Amazon Prime Day. Most of the increase was due to higher gasoline prices. While consumer spending has been strong, higher interest rates and a slowdown in hiring are expected to restrain purchases in the coming months. Forecasters predict the 2023 holiday shopping season could be the weakest in five years due to economic challenges facing consumers. The retail sector continues facing inventory management challenges and social governance issues.
How to improve the Governance Model for the Public Sector - United States - S...
This document provides a summary of strategies to improve governance in government. It discusses factors that impact governance like transparency and accountability. It recommends using performance audits to assess key performance indicators and ensure recommendations are implemented. Other strategies include improving data ethics and literacy, mitigating geopolitical risks, adopting ESG reporting, and using technology like audit analytics and AI to enhance governance. The overall goal is for government to deliver programs and tax policies with value for money and transparency.
What is next for Agriculture Sector - August 2023.pptx
This document provides an analysis of the agriculture output and equipment sector for August 2023. It includes discussions of commodity prices, crop estimates, energy prices, food prices, farming incomes, top farming states, food processors, and the role of technology and government in farming. Key points covered include rising input costs challenging farmers, preliminary crop estimates for Canada, volatility in oil and diesel prices impacting farm expenses, and opportunities for data and automation to help address issues in the agriculture industry.
Biotech Pharmaceutical Medical Equipment and Supplies - Analysis - September ...
This document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation on the biotech, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sector. It includes:
- An introduction and biography of presenter Paul Young CPA CGA
- An agenda covering topics like vaccine production, drug discovery, innovation in areas like storage and AI, and the life sciences strategy
- Links and summaries of information on these topics, including the top vaccine manufacturers, regulations in Canada, and growth in the pharmaceutical market
The presentation aims to discuss key areas of the biotech/pharmaceutical sector including vaccine development and production, drug discovery, innovation, and strategies for the life sciences industry. Links and outside sources are provided to support the topics in the agenda.
Better Public Safety Management using Analytics - September 2023.pptx
This document discusses using analytics to improve public safety management. It outlines rising public safety costs for governments and key issues facing policing like complex crimes and accountability. The document presents crime rate data for Canada and discusses building machine learning models in SPSS and dashboards in Cognos Analytics to analyze police data and forecast expenses. Finally, it lists potential next steps for crime in Canada like bail and corrections reforms, gun control, and increased police oversight.
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptx
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Workforce Planning and Employment Analysis - August 2023.pptx
The document discusses workforce planning and employment analysis. It provides an overview of employment statistics in the United States, Canada, and Australia. It then discusses Sysco's workforce planning model and the role of the CFO in workforce planning. Finally, it defines autonomous finance as the automation of financial operations through software and algorithms, and provides some key statistics on its adoption.
Global Automotive - Analysis and Commentary - August 2023.pptx
This presentation provides an overview of key trends in the global automotive sector in August 2023. It discusses 1) sales trends in Canada, the US and globally, 2) the growth of electric vehicles and focus on reducing emissions, and 3) ongoing transformation in the industry through automation, connectivity and new technologies. Sources included discuss topics like electric vehicle production and adoption, public safety issues regarding EV fires, gasoline and car prices, supply chain challenges, and green transitions in transportation.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
World Merchandise Trade – September 2023.pptx
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptx
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
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Analysis and Commentary| USA| Key Macro and Micro Indicators| December 2020 and January 2021
- 1. ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY – THE UNITED STATES – ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY Paul Young CPA CGA February 27, 2021
- 2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO • CPA, CGA • Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2) • SME – Risk Management • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Costing and Profitability Solutions • SME – Emerging Technology • SME – Business Process Change • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Macro/Micro Indicators • SME – Supply Chain Management
- 3. AGENDA • Key Macro / Micro Indicators – USA • Stock Market – W/E – February 26, 2021 • Durable Goods / December 2020 • Employment / January 2021 • Trade / December 2021 • Budget - October 2020 to January 2021 • Housing • Retail Sales • GDP • Income/Spending • What is next?
- 4. KPI MICRO/MACRO INDICATORS – USA
- 5. STOCK MARKET – W/E – FEBRUARY 26, 2021 Source – BMO
- 6. DURABLE GOODS / DECEMBER 2020 Source - https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
- 7. EMPLOYMENT – USA – JANUARY 2021
- 8. MERCHANDISE TRADE – DECEMBER 2020 Source – USA Government
- 10. HOUSING / USA Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f43bff15-9e22- 4530-a7d1-2415bbe860ed/
- 11. RETAIL SALES / USA Source – USA Government
- 12. GDP / USA Source - https://www.bea.gov/news/202 1/gross-domestic-product-4th- quarter-and-year-2020- advance-estimate
- 14. WHAT’S IS NEXT • 1.9 trillion stimulus package approval - https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/01/28/the- macroeconomic-implications-of-bidens-1-9-trillion-fiscal- package/ • Policies related to natural resources development - https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/01/28/the- macroeconomic-implications-of-bidens-1-9-trillion-fiscal- package/ • Proposed tax hikes - https://taxfoundation.org/biden- corporate-income-tax-rate/ or personal income taxation - https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/602109/president-bidens- tax-plans-for-the-next-few-years • Rise of the housing affordability index - https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/monthly_housing_affo rdability_index • Majority on jobs today and tomorrow with require a specific skill set - https://www.businessinsider.com/best-jobs-for- 2021-new-glassdoor-ranking-2021-1#20-program- managers-1 • Infrastructure Gap - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- biden-infrastructure-idUSKBN2AB1VV • Sluggish global economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for- the-global-economy-february-2021
- 15. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT • If you like to learn more about trade and/or other subjects as part of your professional learning and development then feel free to review my material on https://www.udemy.com/ (search Paul Young CPA CGA) • These subjects address how to fixed issues with housing and/or systemic issues related to economy including government policies