Data Mining to Predict Student Success in a Large Hybrid Class. Presentation for ALT-C 2014 @A_L_T #altc

1. Data Mining to Predict
Student Success
in a Large Class
Perry Samson
College of Engineering
University of Michiganr
samson@umich.edu
and Hybrid @pjsamson

2. What Affects Student Learning?
Activities
Grades

3. What Affects Student Learning?
Intrinsic Influences
• Before class
• During class
• After class
Extrinsic Influences
• History
• Motivation
• Wellness

4. MONITORING STUDENT PARTICIPATION
Type notes here
Type Notes
synchronized to
slides
Pose/review
questions
Browse
slides
Annotate
slides
Bookmark
slides
Note confusion
Learning Analytics: Data Collection

5. MONITORING STUDENT PARTICIPATION
Learning
Analytics
Database
Questions
Posed
Confusion
Activity
Answers
Notes
Attendance
Bookmarks
Lecture
Capture
Learning Analytics: Data Collection

6. MONITORING STUDENT PARTICIPATION
LMS
University
db
SIS
Other
Vendors
Learning
Analytics
Database
Questions
Posed
Confusion
Activity
Answers
Notes
Attendance
Bookmarks
Lecture
Capture
Learning Analytics: Data Collection

7. Question #1
What Aspects of Student
Participation Affect
Student Outcomes?

8. Learning Analytics: Extrinsic Affects
Lesson #1
Student outcomes
are modestly related
to the students’
motivations.
100
90
80
70
60
50
Low
Interest
in
Some
Interest
Medium
Interest
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
High
Interest
Truly
Excited
by
Exam Grades
Level of Interest

9. Learning Analytics: Extrinsic Affects
“Where on this wellness chart
would you put yourself today?”

10. 100
90
80
70
60
50
Average Exam Grades
Learning Analytics: Extrinsic Affects
Physical State Emotional State
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
Average Physical State
100
90
80
70
60
50
Avergae Exam Grade
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
Average Emotional State
Lesson #2
Student outcomes are somewhat related to student wellness
.

11. Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Number of Students
In the classroom From my school residence From elsewhere Missing

12. In a Hybrid Class Outcomes are Unrelated to Location
Lesson #3
Student outcomes
are unrelated to
whether students
participate face-to-face
or remotely.
100
90
80
70
60
50
0 1-2 3-5 >5
Average Exam Grade
Number of Times Participating
Remotely
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 1
Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects

13. Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects
Outcomes ARE Related to In-Class Participation
Lesson #4
Student outcomes
are related to their
level of
participation* in
class.

14. Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects
Outcomes ARE Related to In-Class Performance
Lesson #5
Student outcomes
are related to
their performance
in class.

15. Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects

16. Learning Analytics: Intrinsic Effects
Lesson #6
Student outcomes
are related to the
number of slides
for which they take
notes.
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Exam Grades
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
Number of Slides Containing Notes

17. Question #2
DO HIGHER GPA
STUDENTS BEHAVE
DIFFERENTLY THAN
LOWER GPA STUDENTS?

18. Participation vs. GPA
Learning Outcomes are Related to Incoming GPA
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Exam Grades
GPA
EXAM1
EXAM2
EXAM3

19. Participation vs. GPA
Participation as a Function of Incoming GPA
Fraction of Questions Attempted
Fraction Correct of Gradeable Questions
Ratio of Percent Correct to Percent Attempted
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Avgerage Fraction
Incoming GPA
Lesson #7
Students with
lower incoming
GPA answered
about 70% of
questions in
class versus
85% for higher
GPA students.

20. Participation vs. GPA
Participation as a Function of Incoming GPA
Lesson #8
Students with
lower incoming
GPA took notes
on 5X fewer
slides.
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Avg. Num. Slides
w/Notes
Avg. Words
Typed per Class
<3.0 3.0-3.6 >3.6
Number of Words Typed
Number of Slides w/Notes
Grade Point Average

21. Participation vs. GPA
Participation as a Function of Incoming GPA
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Avergae Days Participated by Location
Participated in Classroom
Participated Remotely
Missed class
Incoming GPA
Lesson #9
Students with
lower were far
more likely to
participate
remotely than
higher GPA
students.

22. Thank you
http://www.sageonstage.com
@pjsamson