The Next Normal - Five Stages of EmergenceMalcolm Ryder
Patterns of activity within a community, market, or organization occur in persistent combinations that we refer to as "normal". When those patterns change enough, and a new set of interactions become more persistent, a new normal emerges. This discussion looks at how to foresee the emergence of a next normal.
Infographic, created from WEF publications on resilience - the ability to withstand, recover from, and reorganize in response to crises. Approach itself is an application of science of complexity to enterprise. Components, inherent to complex systems are highlited. Applying this, it`s necessary to take in account, that resilince is contradictory to efficiency, espesially on short time horison, but ensures survival and development in changing environment.
This presentation was given at the 'Beyond Scaling Up: Pathways to Universal Access' workshop which was held at the Institute of Development Studies, Brighton on the 24-25 May, 2010. This event was co-sponsored by the Future Health Systems Research Programme Consortium and the STEPS Centre. Bennett presented on the role of learning networks in scaling up.
An overview of "resilience thinking" for participants at a meeting on resilience in the electricity space organized by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
The Next Normal - Five Stages of EmergenceMalcolm Ryder
Patterns of activity within a community, market, or organization occur in persistent combinations that we refer to as "normal". When those patterns change enough, and a new set of interactions become more persistent, a new normal emerges. This discussion looks at how to foresee the emergence of a next normal.
Infographic, created from WEF publications on resilience - the ability to withstand, recover from, and reorganize in response to crises. Approach itself is an application of science of complexity to enterprise. Components, inherent to complex systems are highlited. Applying this, it`s necessary to take in account, that resilince is contradictory to efficiency, espesially on short time horison, but ensures survival and development in changing environment.
This presentation was given at the 'Beyond Scaling Up: Pathways to Universal Access' workshop which was held at the Institute of Development Studies, Brighton on the 24-25 May, 2010. This event was co-sponsored by the Future Health Systems Research Programme Consortium and the STEPS Centre. Bennett presented on the role of learning networks in scaling up.
An overview of "resilience thinking" for participants at a meeting on resilience in the electricity space organized by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
Notes on reader introducing systems approaches prt 3 vsmJames Cracknell
Viable System Model - Notes Stafford Beer's VSM model - its approach, uses and applications for organisational change and understanding. A part of my TU811 Open University Study - Thinking strategically: systems tools for managing change
Seminarie Computernetwerken 2012-2013: Lecture I, 26-02-2013Vincenzo De Florio
Seminarie Computernetwerken is a course given at Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium
A series of seminars focusing on various themes changing from year to year.
This year's themes are: resilience, behaviour, evolvability; in systems, networks, and organizations
In what follows we describe:
themes of the course
view to the seminars
rules of the game
Sydney Limited WIP Society presentation on "Systems Traps and Opportunities". Part of series introducing Systems Thinking based on Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows
Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational LearningNei Grando
This presentation considers the relation between the exploration of new possibilities and the exploitation of old certainties in organizational learning. It examines some complications in allocating resources between the two.
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's BookJames Cracknell
System Thinking - the what, the how and the why it is needed in developing an understanding the complexity that surrounds us. Mental models, the application and means to change the system
ITS 832Chapter 4Policy Making and Modeling in aComplex.docxdonnajames55
ITS 832
Chapter 4
Policy Making and Modeling in a
Complex World
Information Technology in a Global Economy
Professor Miguel Buleje
Introduction
• Policy Making and Modeling in a ComplexWorld
• Complexity
• Managing Complex Systems
• Modelling for Complex Systems
Complexity
• System composed of multiple interacting elements
• Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to
predict
• Many complex systems in the physical world
• Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term
survival in complex systems
• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
• Strong capacity to self-organize
Double Pendulum Example
Common Mistakes in Managing
Complex Systems
• Quantification
• Policy is biased towards Quantifiable Variables.
• Most often, monetary quantification.
• Most often, solution selected would be favorable to the optimal economic
outcome.
• Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects
• Compartmentalization
• Second response by policymakers in trying to simplify complex system.
• Attempts to simplify complex social systems
• Large systems are split into smaller systems
• High RISK to miss interactions between smaller systems
• Spillover effect
Complexity in Policy Making
• Common approaches
• Instrumental
• Choosing between a set of possible policies
• Evaluated based on past effectiveness
• Requires
• Large enough pool of available strategies
• Effective assessment of effectiveness
• Representational
• Little more complication approach
• Series of models
• Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior
Instrumental Approach
Representational Approach
Agent-based Simulation Models
• Agent-based simulation is presenting an optimal approach to address
issue around complexity and policymaking.
• Agent base models:
• Represents individuals as separate computer models
• Each model captures the behavior by each individual
• Agents interact through a network
• Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions, and makes this an
attractive alternative.
• SIMSOC
• Simulated Society: use by universities and other groups to teach
social sciences.
• Large modeling projects repository, per inventory on the SIMSOC,
in our space of policy making.
Summary
• Complex systems are difficult to model
• Interactions can be unpredictable
• Common mistakes in modeling complex systems
• Quantification
• Compartmentalization
• Two common approaches to complex system modeling
• Instrumental
• Representational
• Agent-based modeling
.
1The Nature of SuccessClass SeventeenREVIEW!!!!.docxvickeryr87
1
The Nature of Success
Class Seventeen
REVIEW!!!!
Midterm Exam
1. 55 multiple choice questions
2. Testing your fund of knowledge
3. Mainly from lectures, readings that are directly relevant
4. An ‘A’ means an ‘A’
5. Understand the concepts
November 6
3
The Nature of Success
Class One
Introduction and Course Overview
4
Reality is Amorphous
Draw a line around the system boundary
Indicate the most important challenges the system must face
Indicate how the system interacts to face these challenges
What it means to draw that boundary line
You have defined the domain of success/failure that you want to understand.
You have identified the entities inside the boundary that are needed to achieve success (through their interactions). Thus, you have defined your system.
You have identified the entities outside the boundary that will pose the challenges/opportunities that must be managed by the system for the achievement of success.
You understand that it is the information that comes in from the outside entities and is processed by the inside entities – according to an established set of rules – that defines the functioning of the system.
The systems use of this established set of rules is based on the system’s working model of reality.
Core Ideas
Once a system’s purpose/aims and boundaries are known, then we have to understand the system’s structure and function.
A system’s structure describes the entities contained by the system and the particular way they are organized.
A system’s function describes how the entities interact with each other and how these interactions form the emergent properties of the system.
Emergent properties: The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
Remarkably, a great variety of different systems have similar structural and functional characteristics.
Understanding these commonalities will make our work much easier.
Once we get all this we will see that Complex Systems – no matter how complex – usually follow a small number of simple rules.
If we can understand the rules of the Complex System containing a domain of success we care about, then we understand the rules that lead to the domain of success we care about.
6
7
The Nature of Success
Class Two
System Observations
8
The Nature of Success
Class Three
What is a System?
Our Basic System Model
Pattern of Emergent
Behavior
Observed Regularities
Behavior of System Elements
Positive
Feedback
Negative
Feedback
Responding to Ever-Changing
Environment
Key Points re Systems
System Boundaries: what’s in and what’s out
System components: what are the entities that comprise the inside of the system?
System interactions: what governs the behavior about how the systems entities interact with each other?
System purpose: What is the system ‘trying’ to accomplish? What does success and failure mean related to this definition of purpose?
System information pr.
Notes on reader introducing systems approaches prt 3 vsmJames Cracknell
Viable System Model - Notes Stafford Beer's VSM model - its approach, uses and applications for organisational change and understanding. A part of my TU811 Open University Study - Thinking strategically: systems tools for managing change
Seminarie Computernetwerken 2012-2013: Lecture I, 26-02-2013Vincenzo De Florio
Seminarie Computernetwerken is a course given at Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium
A series of seminars focusing on various themes changing from year to year.
This year's themes are: resilience, behaviour, evolvability; in systems, networks, and organizations
In what follows we describe:
themes of the course
view to the seminars
rules of the game
Sydney Limited WIP Society presentation on "Systems Traps and Opportunities". Part of series introducing Systems Thinking based on Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows
Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational LearningNei Grando
This presentation considers the relation between the exploration of new possibilities and the exploitation of old certainties in organizational learning. It examines some complications in allocating resources between the two.
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's BookJames Cracknell
System Thinking - the what, the how and the why it is needed in developing an understanding the complexity that surrounds us. Mental models, the application and means to change the system
ITS 832Chapter 4Policy Making and Modeling in aComplex.docxdonnajames55
ITS 832
Chapter 4
Policy Making and Modeling in a
Complex World
Information Technology in a Global Economy
Professor Miguel Buleje
Introduction
• Policy Making and Modeling in a ComplexWorld
• Complexity
• Managing Complex Systems
• Modelling for Complex Systems
Complexity
• System composed of multiple interacting elements
• Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to
predict
• Many complex systems in the physical world
• Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term
survival in complex systems
• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
• Strong capacity to self-organize
Double Pendulum Example
Common Mistakes in Managing
Complex Systems
• Quantification
• Policy is biased towards Quantifiable Variables.
• Most often, monetary quantification.
• Most often, solution selected would be favorable to the optimal economic
outcome.
• Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects
• Compartmentalization
• Second response by policymakers in trying to simplify complex system.
• Attempts to simplify complex social systems
• Large systems are split into smaller systems
• High RISK to miss interactions between smaller systems
• Spillover effect
Complexity in Policy Making
• Common approaches
• Instrumental
• Choosing between a set of possible policies
• Evaluated based on past effectiveness
• Requires
• Large enough pool of available strategies
• Effective assessment of effectiveness
• Representational
• Little more complication approach
• Series of models
• Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior
Instrumental Approach
Representational Approach
Agent-based Simulation Models
• Agent-based simulation is presenting an optimal approach to address
issue around complexity and policymaking.
• Agent base models:
• Represents individuals as separate computer models
• Each model captures the behavior by each individual
• Agents interact through a network
• Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions, and makes this an
attractive alternative.
• SIMSOC
• Simulated Society: use by universities and other groups to teach
social sciences.
• Large modeling projects repository, per inventory on the SIMSOC,
in our space of policy making.
Summary
• Complex systems are difficult to model
• Interactions can be unpredictable
• Common mistakes in modeling complex systems
• Quantification
• Compartmentalization
• Two common approaches to complex system modeling
• Instrumental
• Representational
• Agent-based modeling
.
1The Nature of SuccessClass SeventeenREVIEW!!!!.docxvickeryr87
1
The Nature of Success
Class Seventeen
REVIEW!!!!
Midterm Exam
1. 55 multiple choice questions
2. Testing your fund of knowledge
3. Mainly from lectures, readings that are directly relevant
4. An ‘A’ means an ‘A’
5. Understand the concepts
November 6
3
The Nature of Success
Class One
Introduction and Course Overview
4
Reality is Amorphous
Draw a line around the system boundary
Indicate the most important challenges the system must face
Indicate how the system interacts to face these challenges
What it means to draw that boundary line
You have defined the domain of success/failure that you want to understand.
You have identified the entities inside the boundary that are needed to achieve success (through their interactions). Thus, you have defined your system.
You have identified the entities outside the boundary that will pose the challenges/opportunities that must be managed by the system for the achievement of success.
You understand that it is the information that comes in from the outside entities and is processed by the inside entities – according to an established set of rules – that defines the functioning of the system.
The systems use of this established set of rules is based on the system’s working model of reality.
Core Ideas
Once a system’s purpose/aims and boundaries are known, then we have to understand the system’s structure and function.
A system’s structure describes the entities contained by the system and the particular way they are organized.
A system’s function describes how the entities interact with each other and how these interactions form the emergent properties of the system.
Emergent properties: The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
Remarkably, a great variety of different systems have similar structural and functional characteristics.
Understanding these commonalities will make our work much easier.
Once we get all this we will see that Complex Systems – no matter how complex – usually follow a small number of simple rules.
If we can understand the rules of the Complex System containing a domain of success we care about, then we understand the rules that lead to the domain of success we care about.
6
7
The Nature of Success
Class Two
System Observations
8
The Nature of Success
Class Three
What is a System?
Our Basic System Model
Pattern of Emergent
Behavior
Observed Regularities
Behavior of System Elements
Positive
Feedback
Negative
Feedback
Responding to Ever-Changing
Environment
Key Points re Systems
System Boundaries: what’s in and what’s out
System components: what are the entities that comprise the inside of the system?
System interactions: what governs the behavior about how the systems entities interact with each other?
System purpose: What is the system ‘trying’ to accomplish? What does success and failure mean related to this definition of purpose?
System information pr.
Vlad Tarko - Modele, emergenta si simulari socialeVlad Tarko
presentation based on John H. Miller & Scott E. Page (2007), Complex Adaptive Systems: An introduction to computational models of social life. Princeton University Press
Skye Residences | Extended Stay Residences Near Toronto Airportmarketingjdass
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Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...PaulBryant58
This article provides a comprehensive guide on how to
effectively manage the convert Accpac to QuickBooks , with a particular focus on utilizing online accounting services to streamline the process.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxmy Pandit
Explore the world of the Taurus zodiac sign. Learn about their stability, determination, and appreciation for beauty. Discover how Taureans' grounded nature and hardworking mindset define their unique personality.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
➢ SUPER JUNIOR-L.S.S. THE SHOW : Th3ee Guys in HO CHI MINH
➢FreenBecky 1st Fan Meeting in Vietnam
➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
➢ WOW K-Music Festival 2023
➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
➢ HCMC - Gyeongsangbuk-do Culture and Tourism Festival
➢ Korean Vietnam Partnership - Fair with LG
➢ Korean President visits Samsung Electronics R&D Center
➢ Vietnam Food Expo with Lotte Wellfood
"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
Aligica & Tarko - Institutional resilience and economic systems
1. Institutional Resilience and
Economic Systems
Dragos Paul Aligica
Vlad Tarko
George Mason University, Mercatus Center
Association of Private Enterprise Education 2013
2. Outline
• What is resilience?
• The role of institutions
• Highly Optimized Tolerance
• Resilience by adaptability
• Polycentricity as the framework for
adaptability
3. Resilience
• Institutional resilience is the ability of a
social system (society, community,
organization) to
– react and adapt to abrupt challenges (internal
or external) and/or
– avoid gradually drifting along destructive
slippery slopes.
4. The role of institutions
• Innovation is endogenous
• Non-renewable & non-abundant resources
– The Red Queen metaphor
5. Highly Optimized Tolerance
• Experience & Data -> estimations of risk
• Efficient prevention:
– Allocate resources for prevention based on
expected damage
– The system of rules gets more complex
– Vulnerabilities to uncertainty, unexpected
sources of damage
6. Resilience by adaptability
• Ability to react to new challenges, rather
than predict them
• Why systems fail? Monitoring and
enforcement problems:
– Incentive problems
– Knowledge problems:
7. Institutional complexity
• Ostrom (2008):
– “Given the logic of combinatorics, it is
impossible for public officials or for direct
beneficiaries to conduct a complete analysis of
the expected personal benefits or broader
performance of all of the potential rule
changes that could be made by the individuals
served by a self-organized resource
governance system trying to improve its
performance. A similar impossibility also
exists for biological systems – they evolve.”
8. Causes of institutional failure
• Constanza, Low, Ostrom and Wilson
(2001) :
– Missing Institutions
– Scale Mismatches
• Missing Connections: decision making linkages
between scales are ineffective.
• Incorrect Scale of Information: decisions are
based on information aggregated at the wrong
scale, even though information may exist at the
appropriate scale.
9. Polycentricity
• Multiple independent decision centers
– Competing at the same scale
– Different functions at different scales
• Over-arching system of rules:
– Domains of universality
– Domains of acceptable variance and diversity
• Good system of rules:
– Spontaneous order