The document discusses three lenses for understanding change in community colleges: linear, systems, and complex, using historical case studies from various timeframes. It poses questions about trends observed at Aims Community College and anticipates future implications for higher education by 2030. Additionally, it explores stages of social evolution and ego development, emphasizing the need for a balanced view that recognizes both rational and intuitive perspectives.

1. THREE LENSES FOR UNDERSTANDING CHANGE
AIMS COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL CONVOCATION
AUGUST 14, 2014
Eric Meade
@ericmeade
www.ericmeade.com
ericmeade@gmail.com

2. WHAT IS A FUTURIST?

3. The intuitive mind is
a sacred gift and the
rational mind is a
faithful servant. We
have created a
society that honors
the servant and has
forgotten the gift.

4. THREE LENSES
• Linear
• Systems
• Complex

5. OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
LINEAR

6. OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
S-CURVE

7. OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
Rational Mind
Intuitive Mind

8. Three Lenses for Understanding Change
LINEAR CHANGE AT AIMS CC:
A 50-YEAR CASE STUDY

9. LINEAR CHANGE AT AIMS CC
LINEAR
1967
1984
1990s
2000s

10. QUESTIONS FOR YOU
• What trends have you seen over the last 50
years at Aims CC?
• Which of these trends do you expect to continue
in the years ahead?
• Based on that, what do you think is likely to be
true of Aims CC in 2030?

11. Three Lenses for Understanding Change
SYSTEMS CHANGE IN EDUCATION:
A 500-YEAR CASE STUDY

12. A MODEL OF SYSTEMS CHANGE
Phase I Phase II Phase III
Experimentation
and Invention
“Back to
Basics Bump”
Experimentation
and Reinvention
Expansion
and Growth
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.

14. INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
Phase I Phase II Phase III
1450: Gutenberg invents
printing press
1492: Columbus discovers
the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1620: Bacon’s
Novum Organum
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
1636: Founding of
Harvard University
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of
the Royal Society
1840: Student Loans
1854: Ashmun Institute
1862: Morrill
Land-Grant Acts
1867: U.S. Dept. of
Education
2002: Google Books
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
2013: Student debt crisis
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1972: Pell Grants
1976: University of Phoenix
1980: Cabinet-level ED
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.

15. INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
Phase I Phase II Phase III
1450: Gutenberg invents
printing press
1492: Columbus discovers
the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1620: Bacon’s
Novum Organum
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
1636: Founding of
Harvard University
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of
the Royal Society
“Back to
1840: Student Loans
Basics Bump”
1854: Ashmun Institute
1862: Morrill
Land-Grant Acts
1867: U.S. Dept. of
Education
2002: Google Books
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
2013: Student debt crisis
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1972: Pell Grants
1976: University of Phoenix
1980: Cabinet-level ED
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.

16. INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
Phase I Phase II Phase III
1450: Gutenberg invents
printing press
1492: Columbus discovers
the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1620: Bacon’s
Novum Organum
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
1636: Founding of
Harvard University
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of
the Royal Society
“Back to
1840: Student Loans
Basics Bump”
1854: Ashmun Institute
1862: Morrill
Land-Grant Acts
1867: U.S. Dept. of
Education
What’s emerging?
2002: Google Books
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
2013: Student debt crisis
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1972: Pell Grants
1976: University of Phoenix
1980: Cabinet-level ED
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.

17. QUESTIONS FOR YOU
• Based on this discussion, what do you think is
likely to be true of institutions of higher learning
in 2030?
• What are the implications of this future for Aims
CC?

18. Three Lenses for Understanding Change
COMPLEX SYSTEMS CHANGE:
A 5,000-YEAR CASE STUDY

19. SOCIAL EVOLUTION

20. SOCIAL EVOLUTION

21. SOCIAL EVOLUTION

22. SOCIAL EVOLUTION
E2
Impulsive
E3
Self-protective
E4 Conformist
E5 Self-aware
E6
Conscientious
E7
Individualistic
Up next
• E8 Autonomous
• E9 Integrated
Loevinger’s
Stages of Ego
Development

23. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

24. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

25. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

26. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

27. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

28. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

29. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

30. Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened
respect for other people and their need to find their own way and
even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the
concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense
of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for
goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or
her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics
that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a
right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the
time, or at least for broad classes of people described in
demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals
and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will
exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control.
There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."

31. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective
Impulsive

32. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

33. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

34. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

35. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal) of which I am
a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

36. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am
and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal) of which I am
a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

37. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around
me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am
and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal) of which I am
a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

38. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous “Everyone” (Humanity)
Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around
me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am
and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal) of which I am
a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

39. Stage What’s your community?
Integrated “Everything” (The Cosmos)
Autonomous “Everyone” (Humanity)
Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around
me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am
and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal) of which I am
a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer
group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who
give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”

40. EGO DEMOGRAPHICS
The proportion of a population at each stage of Loevinger’s
model.
Ca. 1970:
U.S. adult population
concentrated here
Dominant values
Family values
Patriotism
Material success
Economic growth
Educational
achievement

41. EGO DEMOGRAPHICS
The proportion of a population at each stage of Loevinger’s
model.
Ca. 2030:
U.S. adult population
concentrated here
Dominant values
Material success
Equitable growth
Environmental sustainability
Social justice
Tolerance and inclusion

42. TABLE DISCUSSION
In the projected U.S. ego demographics of 2030:
• What is the meaning of:
– Community
– Education
– Institution
– Learning
• How might Aims Community College serve its
vision and mission in 2030? How might the
vision or mission have changed?

43. Three Lenses for Understanding Change
PRACTICAL APPLICATION

44. USES OF THESE LENSES
• How are you classifying external changes?
– Linear?
– Systemic?
– Complex/transformative?
• How are you classifying internal changes?
– Linear?
– Systemic?
– Complex/transformative?
• To what kinds of change are you aspiring?
– Linear?
– Systemic?
– Complex/transformative?

45. THANK YOU
Eric Meade
Visioning • Futuring • Planning • Coaching
ericmeade@gmail.com
www.ericmeade.com
571-201-5379