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1. THE TECHNOLOGIES
2. Neural Networks
3. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
4. Current & Future Applications
5. FINAL THOUGHTS
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
PROVIDE A PRACTICAL
OVERVIEW OF THE
MOST COMMON AI
TECHNOLOGY
PURPOSE:
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
IT’S A CAT
NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
THERE’S 30
STRUCTURAL
MEASUREMENTS
NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
YOU’LL SELL 70
HOT DOGS
Date Temperature P.O.P Foot Traffic
21/09/2018 23 20% 100
22/09/2019 27 10% 321
23/09/2020 19 60% 125
NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
14 DAY SALINITY
FORECAST:
680 uS/cm
Date
FLOW @
ST.1
FLOW @
ST.2
FLOW @
ST.3
1/09/2018 30 45 12
2/09/2019 22 43 15
3/09/2020 19 41 18
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
LOTS OF EMPIRICAL DATA
NOT A LOT OF WAYS TO TIE IT TOGETHER
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
THE GOOD
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Fast
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
THE GOOD THE BAD
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Fast
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
• Viewed as a panacea - but
isn’t
• Often highly situational
• Often requires intense
compute resources
• Can be hard to evaluate
success
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Fast
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
• Intense data cleansing
and preparation
requirements
• “Grey box” solution
• Lack of standardized
approaches
• Hockey stick learning
curve
• Viewed as a panacea - but
isn’t
• Often highly situational
• Often requires intense
compute resources
• Can be hard to evaluate
success
INPUTS NEURON OUTPUT
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Training
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
CALCULATOR
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights CALCULATOR
W1 W2 W3
0.8 -0.2 0.7
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
4. Adjust training weights based on EWD
times initial input value.
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1 W2 W3
0.8 -0.2 0.551
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
4. Adjust training weights based on EWD
times initial input value.
5. Repeat
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1 W2 W3
0.8 -0.2 0.551
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
4. Adjust training weights based on EWD
times initial input value.
5. Repeat
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1 W2 W3
0.85 -0.15 0.56
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
4. Adjust training weights based on EWD
times initial input value.
5. Repeat
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1 W2 W3
0.99 0 0
X100
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
Inputs Output
0 0 1 0
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 0 0 1
TRAIN
TEST
Training
1. Set random initial starting weights
2. Calculate output using a training set
3. Quantify error between calculated output
and expected output
4. Adjust training weights based on EWD
times initial input value.
5. Repeat
W1 W2 W3 Output
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Error: -0.7
Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
W1 W2 W3
0.99 0 0
OPTIMIZE
W1
W2
W3
X1
X2
X3
f(
∑
Xn × Wn)
ibm.biz/sabcs2018
Try it
out
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
MODFLOW/MODPATH
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
MODFLOW/MODPATH
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
MINUTES? HOURS?
THOUSANDS? MILLIONS?
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM 

MODFLOW/MODPATH
TRAINING EXAMPLES <<
SIMULATION ITERATIONS
< SECOND
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM 

MODFLOW/MODPATH
TRAINING EXAMPLES <<
SIMULATION ITERATIONS
ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DECREASE IN TIME TO COMPLETE
< SECOND
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. I: PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. II: HYDROLOGIC
APPLICATIONS
ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL,
DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE
DATA FROM HERE
TO PREDICT SALINITY
HERE
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL,
DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE
DATA FROM HERE
TO PREDICT SALINITY
HERE
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
17 STATIONS
3 MEASUREMENT TYPES/STATION
~51 INPUT NODES
2 X 10 NEURON
HIDDEN LAYERS
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
• Different stations collect different measurements
• Some measurements are blank…?
• Stations started collecting on different dates..!
• How far do I go back…??
• How do I transform the data…???
• Data needs to be normalized…!
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
• Different stations collect different measurements
• Some measurements are blank…?
• How far do I go back…??
• How do I transform the data…???
• Stations started collecting on different dates..!
• Data needs to be normalized…!
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
Model Building
35%
Data Preparation
65%
Dataset and code are available for
you to try on box
ibm.biz/sabcs2018
Did it work?
10 EPOCHS
Did it work?
500 EPOCHS
Did it work?
1000 EPOCHS
Did it work? !
25000 EPOCHS
Did it work? !
25000 EPOCHS
SOME CONSIDERATIONS
• Network architecture was
largely arbitrary.
• Data cleansing was quick, and
not thorough.
• 1st iteration results - typically
do 10’s to 100’s
• Very promising capabilities.
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
A 3-dimensional
convolutional neural
network designed to work
with categorical and
continuous variables
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
PREDICTIONS
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
THE RESULTS
REDACTED
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
• Team made up of:
• Engineers (geological, materials, mining, etc.)
• Scientists (geophysicists, astrophysicists biologists,
etc.)
• Developers
• Data Scientists
• Like a startup backed by the power of IBM
• Always start with a Proof of Concept (PoC)
• Close working teams for successful
outcomes
10XRETURN ON INVESTMENT
1. BE MINDFUL OF YOUR DATA
2. BUILD A USE CASE FOR THE DATA YOU HAVE
3. REPLACE LEGACY CONVENTIONAL MODELLING TECHNIQUES
4. START SMALL
5. DEFINE SUCCESS
6. GET A DATA SCIENTIST
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
62
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!63 IBM Services
WHY THIS USE CASE?
• Hand written documents have more variability.
• Hand written documents are typically lower
quality.
• Hand written documents do not have a consistent
orientation.
• Maps are coloured in.
• Maps are done underground, so documents are
often damaged.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!64 IBM Services
USE CASE OBJECTIVES
1. Find a symbol
2. Classify a symbol
3. Find associated dip measurement
4. Read dip measurement
5. Determine strike angle
6. Georeference symbol
7. Read metadata
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!65
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!66
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
[cat, 0.98]
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!67
IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
These are
all cats.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!68
IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
These are
all cats.
These are
all not
cats.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!69
IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
These are
all cats.
These are
all not
cats.
10K
of each
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!70
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
IMAGE
CLASSIFIER
[cat, 0.98]
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!71
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!72
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
CONVOLUTION LAYER:
Learning complex patterns
from the input patterns.
POOLING LAYER:
Reduce spatial size of the
representation to reduce
amount of parameters and
computation in network
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!73
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
CONVOLUTION LAYER:
Learning complex patterns
from the input patterns.
POOLING LAYER:
Reduce spatial size of the
representation to reduce
amount of parameters and
computation in network
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!74
THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
Convolutional Deep Belief Networks for Scalable Unsupervised
Learning of Hierarchical Representations. Lee, Ng
CONVOLUTION LAYER:
Learning complex patterns
from the input patterns.
POOLING LAYER:
Reduce spatial size of the
representation to reduce
amount of parameters and
computation in network
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!75
CHALLENGES
• Symbols are very small
• Everyone has different handwriting
• Orientation varies
• Colouring obscures symbol clarity
• Lots of unrelated symbols
• Huge variation in quality and condition of images
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!76
Image
Faster RCNN
(Main Object Detection)
Image Preprocessing
(Denoising, Enhancing
etc.)
CNN
(Detecting digits/alphabets
per contour)
Image Manipulation
(Cropping etc.)
Faster RCNN
(Digit Detection )
CNN
(Detecting angles for
each digit to get
orientation)
CNN
(Detect Orientation of
Objects)
Image Manipulation
(Cropping etc.)
Image Preprocessing
(Denoising, Enhancing
etc.)
Output
Information
(SymbolObjects,
geo-reference
coordinates,
metadata)
OCR
(Detecting digits/letters per
contour)
OCR
(Detecting digits/letters per
contour)
Image Manipulation
(Cropping etc.)
Symbol detection (Objective 1,2,3,4)
Coordinates detection (Objective 6)
Metadata Extraction (Objective 7)
Faster RCNN
OROBJECTIVES
1. Find a symbol
2. Classify a symbol
3. Find associated dip measurement
4. Read dip measurement
5. Determine strike angle
6. Georeference symbol
7. Read metadata
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!77
SOME MORE EXAMPLES
THE PROBLEM:
Target identification and
prioritization is expensive,
time consuming, and risky.
THE PROMISE:
Predictive models use large
volumes of historical data to
determine the likelihood of
future outcomes.
THE PROMISE:
Predictive models use large
volumes of geological data to
determine the likelihood of
mineralization.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!81 IBM Services
LARGE VOLUMES
OF DATA
?
DATA QUALITY SUBJECTIVITY
WHY PREDICTIVE MODELLING?
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!82
MINERAL EXPLORATION CONDENSED
DATA DRIVEN
KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN
What do I know
about the
geological setting?
What does my
survey data tell
me?
• More data than a human can reasonably consume
• Can be affected by human bias
• Requires extensive experience & education
• Changes from person to person
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!83
MINERAL EXPLORATION CONDENSED
DATA DRIVEN
KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN
What do I know
about the
geological setting?
What does my
survey data tell
me?
• More data than a human can reasonably consume
• Can be affected by human bias
• Requires extensive experience & education
• Changes from person to person
SWEET SPOT
• Largely data driven models
• Tribal knowledge embedded in data representation
• Domain knowledge represented in model construction
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!84
MINERAL EXPLORATION PROCESS
SEARCH
• Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have
to aggregate it from multiple sources.
PREPARE
• Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have
to aggregate it from multiple sources.
MODEL
• Geologists examine the data, interpolate, and create
3D models to inform further exploration and mining
activities.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!85
MINERAL EXPLORATION PROCESS
SEARCH
• Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have
to aggregate it from multiple sources.
PREPARE
• Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have
to aggregate it from multiple sources.
MODEL
• Geologists examine the data, interpolate, and create
3D models to inform further exploration and mining
activities.
70%
OF A GEOLOGIST’S TIME
UP TO
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
PREREQUISITES FOR AI
• Large quantity of data
• Data is cleaned
• Data is structured and organized
• Business objectives are understood
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
PREREQUISITES FOR AI
• Large quantity of data
• Data is cleaned
• Data is structured and organized
• Business objectives are understood
70%
OF A DATA SCIENTIST’S TIME
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
AI HELPS GEOLOGISTS
WORK BETTER HERE
SO MORE TIME CAN BE
SPENT HERE
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services
PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
AI INFORMS THE MODELLING PROCESS BY
ALLOWING EXPERIMENTS TO BE TESTED
THE PROMISE:
Predictive models use large
volumes of geological data to
determine the likelihood of
mineralization.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!93
SPEND LESS TIME PREPARING DATA
3D GIS PLATFORM FOR
MODELLING
• Data is aggregated, correlated, and stored
in a manner that is conducive to both
geological and predictive modelling.
NON-INVASIVE
• Continue to use your existing tools and
software to collect data - no breaking of
business processes.
NECESSARY
• Clean, organized data is a requirement for
modelling - maximize the value of your
preparation activities.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!94
SPEND LESS TIME PREPARING DATA
3D GIS PLATFORM FOR
MODELLING
• Data is aggregated, correlated, and stored
in a manner that is conducive to both
geological and predictive modelling.
NON-INVASIVE
• Continue to use your existing tools and
software to collect data - no breaking of
business processes.
NECESSARY
• Clean, organized data is a requirement for
modelling - maximize the value of your
preparation activities.
THE PROMISE:
Predictive models use large
volumes of geological data to
determine the likelihood of
mineralization.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!96
PREDICTIVE MODELLING REQUIREMENTS
Criteria
1. Consume large amounts of data.
2. Can use geospatial information (i.e. work in 3D).
3. Can use categorical variables.
4. Low requirement for knowledge engineering.
5. Can be trained on a specific area (e.g. brownfield).
6. Can be trained on a non-specific area (e.g. greenfield)
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!97
CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS
Criteria
1. Consume large amounts of data.
2. Can use geospatial information (i.e. work in 3D).
3. Can use categorical variables.
4. Low requirement for knowledge engineering.
5. Can be trained on a specific area (e.g. brownfield).
6. Can be trained on a non-specific area (e.g. greenfield)
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!98
WATSON FOR GEOLOGY PREDICTIVE MODELS
A 3-dimensional convolutional neural
network designed to work with
categorical and continuous variables
Network architecture designed with
recognition of high level geological
features in mind - training the model
adds further context.
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!99
FEATURE ENGINEERING & DATA EXTRACTION
Can we teach the model about ternary
diagrams?
Can we leverage even more data?
DRILL LOG COMMENT COMPREHENSION
MAP ANALYSIS
© 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!100
NEXT STEPS
GREENFIELDS BROWNFIELDS RESOURCES EXPANSION
MODEL TESTEDQ1 2019

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AI in Geosciences - Mineral Exploration and Beyond

  • 1.
  • 2. 1. THE TECHNOLOGIES 2. Neural Networks 3. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS 4. Current & Future Applications 5. FINAL THOUGHTS Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 PROVIDE A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE MOST COMMON AI TECHNOLOGY PURPOSE:
  • 3. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 4. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 5. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 6. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 7. 1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM 2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
  • 8. NEURAL NETWORK 1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM 2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM IT’S A CAT
  • 9. NEURAL NETWORK 1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM 2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM THERE’S 30 STRUCTURAL MEASUREMENTS
  • 10. NEURAL NETWORK 1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM 2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM YOU’LL SELL 70 HOT DOGS Date Temperature P.O.P Foot Traffic 21/09/2018 23 20% 100 22/09/2019 27 10% 321 23/09/2020 19 60% 125
  • 11. NEURAL NETWORK 1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM 2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM 14 DAY SALINITY FORECAST: 680 uS/cm Date FLOW @ ST.1 FLOW @ ST.2 FLOW @ ST.3 1/09/2018 30 45 12 2/09/2019 22 43 15 3/09/2020 19 41 18
  • 12. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 LOTS OF EMPIRICAL DATA NOT A LOT OF WAYS TO TIE IT TOGETHER
  • 13. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 THE GOOD • Great for: • Pattern recognition • Nonlinear modelling • Classification • Association • Control • Fast • Don’t have to explicitly define an equation • Learn from the past, adapt in the future
  • 14. THE GOOD THE BAD • Great for: • Pattern recognition • Nonlinear modelling • Classification • Association • Control • Don’t have to explicitly define an equation • Fast • Learn from the past, adapt in the future • Viewed as a panacea - but isn’t • Often highly situational • Often requires intense compute resources • Can be hard to evaluate success
  • 15. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY • Great for: • Pattern recognition • Nonlinear modelling • Classification • Association • Control • Don’t have to explicitly define an equation • Fast • Learn from the past, adapt in the future • Intense data cleansing and preparation requirements • “Grey box” solution • Lack of standardized approaches • Hockey stick learning curve • Viewed as a panacea - but isn’t • Often highly situational • Often requires intense compute resources • Can be hard to evaluate success
  • 17. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Training Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST CALCULATOR
  • 18. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights CALCULATOR W1 W2 W3 0.8 -0.2 0.7
  • 19. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7
  • 20. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814
  • 21. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output 4. Adjust training weights based on EWD times initial input value. W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814 W1 W2 W3 0.8 -0.2 0.551
  • 22. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output 4. Adjust training weights based on EWD times initial input value. 5. Repeat W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814 W1 W2 W3 0.8 -0.2 0.551
  • 23. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output 4. Adjust training weights based on EWD times initial input value. 5. Repeat W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814 W1 W2 W3 0.85 -0.15 0.56
  • 24. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output 4. Adjust training weights based on EWD times initial input value. 5. Repeat W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814 W1 W2 W3 0.99 0 0 X100
  • 25. W1 W2 W3 X1 X2 X3 f( ∑ Xn × Wn) Inputs Output 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 TRAIN TEST Training 1. Set random initial starting weights 2. Calculate output using a training set 3. Quantify error between calculated output and expected output 4. Adjust training weights based on EWD times initial input value. 5. Repeat W1 W2 W3 Output 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 Error: -0.7 Error Weighted Derivative: -0.14814 W1 W2 W3 0.99 0 0 OPTIMIZE
  • 27. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 28. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30
  • 29. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30 MODFLOW/MODPATH G.O. TECHNIQUE MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
  • 30. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30 MODFLOW/MODPATH G.O. TECHNIQUE MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS MINUTES? HOURS? THOUSANDS? MILLIONS?
  • 31. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30 NEURAL NETWORK G.O. TECHNIQUE MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
  • 32. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30 NEURAL NETWORK G.O. TECHNIQUE MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM 
 MODFLOW/MODPATH TRAINING EXAMPLES << SIMULATION ITERATIONS < SECOND
  • 33. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping Strategy for Plume Removal Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri Solomatine What is the optimal pumping rate to minimize time to cleanup? P1 P2 P3 40 20 30 NEURAL NETWORK G.O. TECHNIQUE MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM 
 MODFLOW/MODPATH TRAINING EXAMPLES << SIMULATION ITERATIONS ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DECREASE IN TIME TO COMPLETE < SECOND
  • 34. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. I: PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. II: HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology
  • 35. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
  • 36. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL, DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM HERE TO PREDICT SALINITY HERE
  • 37. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL, DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM HERE TO PREDICT SALINITY HERE
  • 38. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? 17 STATIONS 3 MEASUREMENT TYPES/STATION ~51 INPUT NODES 2 X 10 NEURON HIDDEN LAYERS
  • 39. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? 1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA M1 M2 M3 … M50 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
  • 40. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? 1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA • Different stations collect different measurements • Some measurements are blank…? • Stations started collecting on different dates..! • How far do I go back…?? • How do I transform the data…??? • Data needs to be normalized…! M1 M2 M3 … M50 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
  • 41. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN 14 DAYS? 1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA • Different stations collect different measurements • Some measurements are blank…? • How far do I go back…?? • How do I transform the data…??? • Stations started collecting on different dates..! • Data needs to be normalized…! M1 M2 M3 … M50 0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT Model Building 35% Data Preparation 65%
  • 42. Dataset and code are available for you to try on box ibm.biz/sabcs2018
  • 43. Did it work? 10 EPOCHS
  • 46. Did it work? ! 25000 EPOCHS
  • 47. Did it work? ! 25000 EPOCHS SOME CONSIDERATIONS • Network architecture was largely arbitrary. • Data cleansing was quick, and not thorough. • 1st iteration results - typically do 10’s to 100’s • Very promising capabilities.
  • 48. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 49. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 50. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 51. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 52. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 53. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 54. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 55. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 56. A 3-dimensional convolutional neural network designed to work with categorical and continuous variables Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018 PREDICTIONS
  • 57. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services THE RESULTS REDACTED
  • 58. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 59. • Team made up of: • Engineers (geological, materials, mining, etc.) • Scientists (geophysicists, astrophysicists biologists, etc.) • Developers • Data Scientists • Like a startup backed by the power of IBM • Always start with a Proof of Concept (PoC) • Close working teams for successful outcomes 10XRETURN ON INVESTMENT
  • 60. 1. BE MINDFUL OF YOUR DATA 2. BUILD A USE CASE FOR THE DATA YOU HAVE 3. REPLACE LEGACY CONVENTIONAL MODELLING TECHNIQUES 4. START SMALL 5. DEFINE SUCCESS 6. GET A DATA SCIENTIST Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
  • 61.
  • 62. 62
  • 63. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!63 IBM Services WHY THIS USE CASE? • Hand written documents have more variability. • Hand written documents are typically lower quality. • Hand written documents do not have a consistent orientation. • Maps are coloured in. • Maps are done underground, so documents are often damaged.
  • 64. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!64 IBM Services USE CASE OBJECTIVES 1. Find a symbol 2. Classify a symbol 3. Find associated dip measurement 4. Read dip measurement 5. Determine strike angle 6. Georeference symbol 7. Read metadata
  • 65. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!65 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS IMAGE CLASSIFIER
  • 66. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!66 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS IMAGE CLASSIFIER [cat, 0.98]
  • 67. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!67 IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING IMAGE CLASSIFIER These are all cats.
  • 68. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!68 IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING IMAGE CLASSIFIER These are all cats. These are all not cats.
  • 69. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!69 IMAGE CLASSIFIERS: TRAINING IMAGE CLASSIFIER These are all cats. These are all not cats. 10K of each
  • 70. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!70 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS IMAGE CLASSIFIER [cat, 0.98]
  • 71. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!71 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS
  • 72. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!72 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS CONVOLUTION LAYER: Learning complex patterns from the input patterns. POOLING LAYER: Reduce spatial size of the representation to reduce amount of parameters and computation in network
  • 73. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!73 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS CONVOLUTION LAYER: Learning complex patterns from the input patterns. POOLING LAYER: Reduce spatial size of the representation to reduce amount of parameters and computation in network
  • 74. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!74 THE TECHNOLOGY: IMAGE CLASSIFIERS Convolutional Deep Belief Networks for Scalable Unsupervised Learning of Hierarchical Representations. Lee, Ng CONVOLUTION LAYER: Learning complex patterns from the input patterns. POOLING LAYER: Reduce spatial size of the representation to reduce amount of parameters and computation in network
  • 75. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!75 CHALLENGES • Symbols are very small • Everyone has different handwriting • Orientation varies • Colouring obscures symbol clarity • Lots of unrelated symbols • Huge variation in quality and condition of images
  • 76. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!76 Image Faster RCNN (Main Object Detection) Image Preprocessing (Denoising, Enhancing etc.) CNN (Detecting digits/alphabets per contour) Image Manipulation (Cropping etc.) Faster RCNN (Digit Detection ) CNN (Detecting angles for each digit to get orientation) CNN (Detect Orientation of Objects) Image Manipulation (Cropping etc.) Image Preprocessing (Denoising, Enhancing etc.) Output Information (SymbolObjects, geo-reference coordinates, metadata) OCR (Detecting digits/letters per contour) OCR (Detecting digits/letters per contour) Image Manipulation (Cropping etc.) Symbol detection (Objective 1,2,3,4) Coordinates detection (Objective 6) Metadata Extraction (Objective 7) Faster RCNN OROBJECTIVES 1. Find a symbol 2. Classify a symbol 3. Find associated dip measurement 4. Read dip measurement 5. Determine strike angle 6. Georeference symbol 7. Read metadata
  • 77. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!77 SOME MORE EXAMPLES
  • 78. THE PROBLEM: Target identification and prioritization is expensive, time consuming, and risky.
  • 79. THE PROMISE: Predictive models use large volumes of historical data to determine the likelihood of future outcomes.
  • 80. THE PROMISE: Predictive models use large volumes of geological data to determine the likelihood of mineralization.
  • 81. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!81 IBM Services LARGE VOLUMES OF DATA ? DATA QUALITY SUBJECTIVITY WHY PREDICTIVE MODELLING?
  • 82. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!82 MINERAL EXPLORATION CONDENSED DATA DRIVEN KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN What do I know about the geological setting? What does my survey data tell me? • More data than a human can reasonably consume • Can be affected by human bias • Requires extensive experience & education • Changes from person to person
  • 83. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!83 MINERAL EXPLORATION CONDENSED DATA DRIVEN KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN What do I know about the geological setting? What does my survey data tell me? • More data than a human can reasonably consume • Can be affected by human bias • Requires extensive experience & education • Changes from person to person SWEET SPOT • Largely data driven models • Tribal knowledge embedded in data representation • Domain knowledge represented in model construction
  • 84. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!84 MINERAL EXPLORATION PROCESS SEARCH • Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have to aggregate it from multiple sources. PREPARE • Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have to aggregate it from multiple sources. MODEL • Geologists examine the data, interpolate, and create 3D models to inform further exploration and mining activities.
  • 85. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!85 MINERAL EXPLORATION PROCESS SEARCH • Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have to aggregate it from multiple sources. PREPARE • Data is usually disparate and silo’ed - geologists have to aggregate it from multiple sources. MODEL • Geologists examine the data, interpolate, and create 3D models to inform further exploration and mining activities. 70% OF A GEOLOGIST’S TIME UP TO
  • 86. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK PREREQUISITES FOR AI • Large quantity of data • Data is cleaned • Data is structured and organized • Business objectives are understood
  • 87. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK PREREQUISITES FOR AI • Large quantity of data • Data is cleaned • Data is structured and organized • Business objectives are understood 70% OF A DATA SCIENTIST’S TIME
  • 88. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
  • 89. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK
  • 90. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK AI HELPS GEOLOGISTS WORK BETTER HERE SO MORE TIME CAN BE SPENT HERE
  • 91. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services PREDICTIVE MODELLING FRAMEWORK AI INFORMS THE MODELLING PROCESS BY ALLOWING EXPERIMENTS TO BE TESTED
  • 92. THE PROMISE: Predictive models use large volumes of geological data to determine the likelihood of mineralization.
  • 93. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!93 SPEND LESS TIME PREPARING DATA 3D GIS PLATFORM FOR MODELLING • Data is aggregated, correlated, and stored in a manner that is conducive to both geological and predictive modelling. NON-INVASIVE • Continue to use your existing tools and software to collect data - no breaking of business processes. NECESSARY • Clean, organized data is a requirement for modelling - maximize the value of your preparation activities.
  • 94. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!94 SPEND LESS TIME PREPARING DATA 3D GIS PLATFORM FOR MODELLING • Data is aggregated, correlated, and stored in a manner that is conducive to both geological and predictive modelling. NON-INVASIVE • Continue to use your existing tools and software to collect data - no breaking of business processes. NECESSARY • Clean, organized data is a requirement for modelling - maximize the value of your preparation activities.
  • 95. THE PROMISE: Predictive models use large volumes of geological data to determine the likelihood of mineralization.
  • 96. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!96 PREDICTIVE MODELLING REQUIREMENTS Criteria 1. Consume large amounts of data. 2. Can use geospatial information (i.e. work in 3D). 3. Can use categorical variables. 4. Low requirement for knowledge engineering. 5. Can be trained on a specific area (e.g. brownfield). 6. Can be trained on a non-specific area (e.g. greenfield)
  • 97. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!97 CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS Criteria 1. Consume large amounts of data. 2. Can use geospatial information (i.e. work in 3D). 3. Can use categorical variables. 4. Low requirement for knowledge engineering. 5. Can be trained on a specific area (e.g. brownfield). 6. Can be trained on a non-specific area (e.g. greenfield)
  • 98. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!98 WATSON FOR GEOLOGY PREDICTIVE MODELS A 3-dimensional convolutional neural network designed to work with categorical and continuous variables Network architecture designed with recognition of high level geological features in mind - training the model adds further context.
  • 99. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!99 FEATURE ENGINEERING & DATA EXTRACTION Can we teach the model about ternary diagrams? Can we leverage even more data? DRILL LOG COMMENT COMPREHENSION MAP ANALYSIS
  • 100. © 2018 IBM Corporation IBM Services!100 NEXT STEPS GREENFIELDS BROWNFIELDS RESOURCES EXPANSION MODEL TESTEDQ1 2019