AI has caused disruption in virtually every commercial sector, as well as our day-to-day lives. However, it continues to be an enigmatic topic for the geosciences community, and how it can be harnessed remains somewhat unclear. Geoscientists stand to benefit significantly from the application of AI in their work. For example, applications like the automatic digitization of analogue data, or the use of predictive models to identify areas of mineralization are already being used successfully by some tech-forward companies. This presentation will demystify the capabilities of a key AI technology, neural networks, discuss several ways it is being used by geologists today, and outline how IBM believes advancements in this technology will continue to improve the way geoscientists work in the years to come.
AI in Geosciences - Mineral Exploration and Beyond
1.
2. 1. THE TECHNOLOGIES
2. Neural Networks
3. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
4. Current & Future Applications
5. FINAL THOUGHTS
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
PROVIDE A PRACTICAL
OVERVIEW OF THE
MOST COMMON AI
TECHNOLOGY
PURPOSE:
10. NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
YOU’LL SELL 70
HOT DOGS
Date Temperature P.O.P Foot Traffic
21/09/2018 23 20% 100
22/09/2019 27 10% 321
23/09/2020 19 60% 125
11. NEURAL
NETWORK
1. THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM
2. REGRESSION-LIKE PROBLEM
14 DAY SALINITY
FORECAST:
680 uS/cm
Date
FLOW @
ST.1
FLOW @
ST.2
FLOW @
ST.3
1/09/2018 30 45 12
2/09/2019 22 43 15
3/09/2020 19 41 18
12. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
LOTS OF EMPIRICAL DATA
NOT A LOT OF WAYS TO TIE IT TOGETHER
13. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
THE GOOD
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Fast
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
14. THE GOOD THE BAD
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Fast
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
• Viewed as a panacea - but
isn’t
• Often highly situational
• Often requires intense
compute resources
• Can be hard to evaluate
success
15. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY
• Great for:
• Pattern recognition
• Nonlinear modelling
• Classification
• Association
• Control
• Don’t have to explicitly
define an equation
• Fast
• Learn from the past,
adapt in the future
• Intense data cleansing
and preparation
requirements
• “Grey box” solution
• Lack of standardized
approaches
• Hockey stick learning
curve
• Viewed as a panacea - but
isn’t
• Often highly situational
• Often requires intense
compute resources
• Can be hard to evaluate
success
28. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
29. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
MODFLOW/MODPATH
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
30. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
MODFLOW/MODPATH
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
MINUTES? HOURS?
THOUSANDS? MILLIONS?
31. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
32. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM
MODFLOW/MODPATH
TRAINING EXAMPLES <<
SIMULATION ITERATIONS
< SECOND
33. Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018
Groundwater Model Approximation with Artificial
Neural Network for Selecting Optimum Pumping
Strategy for Plume Removal
Shreedhar Maskey, Yonas B. Dibike, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri
Solomatine
What is the optimal pumping rate to
minimize time to cleanup?
P1 P2 P3
40 20 30
NEURAL NETWORK
G.O. TECHNIQUE
MINIMUM TIME: 3000 DAYS
TRAINING EXAMPLES FROM
MODFLOW/MODPATH
TRAINING EXAMPLES <<
SIMULATION ITERATIONS
ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DECREASE IN TIME TO COMPLETE
< SECOND
34. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. I: PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN HYDROLOGY. II: HYDROLOGIC
APPLICATIONS
ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology
35. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
36. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL,
DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE
DATA FROM HERE
TO PREDICT SALINITY
HERE
37. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
RIVER MURRAY SYSTEM
USE FLOW, WATER LEVEL,
DISCHARGE, AND TEMPERATURE
DATA FROM HERE
TO PREDICT SALINITY
HERE
38. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
17 STATIONS
3 MEASUREMENT TYPES/STATION
~51 INPUT NODES
2 X 10 NEURON
HIDDEN LAYERS
39. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
40. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
• Different stations collect different measurements
• Some measurements are blank…?
• Stations started collecting on different dates..!
• How far do I go back…??
• How do I transform the data…???
• Data needs to be normalized…!
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
41. WHAT WILL THE SALINITY LEVELS BE IN
14 DAYS?
1. GET THE DATA 2. PREPARE THE DATA
• Different stations collect different measurements
• Some measurements are blank…?
• How far do I go back…??
• How do I transform the data…???
• Stations started collecting on different dates..!
• Data needs to be normalized…!
M1 M2 M3 … M50
0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7TARGET FORMAT
Model Building
35%
Data Preparation
65%
42. Dataset and code are available for
you to try on box
ibm.biz/sabcs2018
47. Did it work? !
25000 EPOCHS
SOME CONSIDERATIONS
• Network architecture was
largely arbitrary.
• Data cleansing was quick, and
not thorough.
• 1st iteration results - typically
do 10’s to 100’s
• Very promising capabilities.
59. • Team made up of:
• Engineers (geological, materials, mining, etc.)
• Scientists (geophysicists, astrophysicists biologists,
etc.)
• Developers
• Data Scientists
• Like a startup backed by the power of IBM
• Always start with a Proof of Concept (PoC)
• Close working teams for successful
outcomes
10XRETURN ON INVESTMENT
60. 1. BE MINDFUL OF YOUR DATA
2. BUILD A USE CASE FOR THE DATA YOU HAVE
3. REPLACE LEGACY CONVENTIONAL MODELLING TECHNIQUES
4. START SMALL
5. DEFINE SUCCESS
6. GET A DATA SCIENTIST
Max Howarth - IBM Canada 2018