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Africa	4.0	
Opportuni*es	for	Africa	from	Industry	4.0?	
Cape	Town	|	13	October	2017	 The	world’s	leading	open	foresight	program
Context	–	Africa	4.0	
With	the	rapid	evolu*on	of	digital	opportuni*es,	there	is	growing	expecta*on		
that	Industry	4.0	could	have	a	drama*c	impact	on	Africa.	Will	it?	Can	it	help	shiJ		
Africa	from	leapfrogging	to	leading?	Where	are	the	biggest	opportuni*es?
Overview	
This	talk	looks	at	some	of	the	key	Industry	4.0	changes	that	are	emerging.		
It	asks	where	and	how	they	may	impact	Africa	in	the	future	and	what	are		
some	of	the	key	challenges	and	opportuni*es	that	lie	ahead.	
Africa	4.0	
Implica*ons	 Ques*ons	
Future	Africa	
Challenges	 Opportuni*es	
Industry	4.0	
The	Promise	 Example	Impacts
Foresight	vs.	Insight
Future	Agenda	
The	Future	Agenda	is	the	world’s	largest	open	foresight	program.		
Run	as	a	global	dialogue	across	all	con*nents,	it	accesses	mul*ple	views	of	the		
next	decade	so	we	can	all	be	beQer	informed	and	so	s*mulate	innova*on.
Industry	4.0
Manufacturing’s	Next	Act	
Smart	factories	feature	decentralized	systems	that	collaborate	with	each	other	with	
excep*onal	levels	of	produc*vity	and	quality.	Component	manufacture,	assembly,	
tes*ng	and	packaging	are	all	more	flexible,	faster,	cheaper	and	more	effec*ve.
Automa?on	Beyond	the	Factory	
Outside	the	Smart	Factory,	many	are	preparing	for	a	world	in	which	the	Internet	of	
Things,	AI,	machine	learning	and	autonomous	vehicles,	all	operate	within	an	
increasingly	connected	world	–	where	data	and	digital	infrastructures	dominate.
Everything	Connected	
Over	1	trillion	sensors	are	connected	to	mul*ple	networks:	everything	that	can		
benefit	from	a	connec*on	has	one.	We	deliver	10,000x	more	data	100x	more	
effec*vely	but	are	concerned	about	the	security	of	informa*on	flow.
Real	Time	Analy?cs	
Pervasive	data	sharing	combines	with	real	*me	analysis	and	machine	learning		
to	provide	all	par*es	with	diagnos*cs	and	predica*on	on	vehicle	safety,		
op*mal	scheduling	of	trains,	and	maintenance	and	self-repair	of	equipment.
Machine	Learning	Taking	Control	
With	the	rise	of	AI	and	autonomous	compu*ng,	machine	learning	is		
increasingly	put	in	control	of	managing	our	energy	systems	–		
quickly	realizing	efficiency	savings	of	around	50%	in	some	sectors.
Digital	Money	
	Cash	con*nues	to	be	gradually	replaced	by	digital	money,	providing		
consumers	with	more	convenience	and	choice	–	and	organisa*ons	with		
lower	cost	transac*ons.	Wider	adop*on	enables	new	offers	to	proliferate.
Data	Ownership	
Individuals	recognize	the	value	of	their	digital	shadows,	privacy	agents	curate		
clients’	data	sets	while	personal	data	stores	give	us	transparent	control	of		
our	informa*on:	We	retain	more	ownership	of	our	data	and	opt	to	share	it.
Building	Data	Marketplaces		
Data	is	a	currency,	it	has	a	value	and	a	price,	and	therefore	requires	a		
market	place.	An	ecosystem	for	trading	data	is	emerging	and	anything		
that	is	informa*on	is	represented	in	a	new	data	marketplace.
Growing	Cyber	Terrorism	
Digital	manufacturing	and	transport	systems	become	increasingly	popular		
targets	for	hackers	and	cyber	terrorists.	Pervasive	connec*vity	and	weak	security	
provide	evermore	open	back	doors	for	sustained	denial	of	service.
Future	Africa
Africa	Growth	
With	a	land	mass	bigger	than	India,	China,	the	US	and	Europe	combined,	few	doubt	
the	scale	of	Africa	and	its	resources.	However,	un*l	recently,	only	some	have	seen		
the	poten*al	in	the	growth	markets	that	some	SSA	na*ons	are	fast	becoming.
Equitable	Economic	Growth	
Some	of	the	world’s	fastest	growing	economies	are	to	be	found	in	Africa		
–	but	so	also	are	many	of	the	na*ons	with	the	fastest	growing	popula*ons.	
Ensuring	that	the	economic	growth	benefits	all	is	seen	as	a	challenge	for	many.
Impacts	of	Climate	Change	
As	the	world	warms	by	between	2oC	and	4oC,	Africa	is	expected	to	warm	up	to	1.5	
*mes	faster	that	the	average.	Key	implica*ons	include	flooding	in	Dar	es	Salaam	and	
Lagos,	severe	droughts,	lower	food	yields	and	the	migra*on	of	ten	of	millions	north.
Modernizing	Long	Distance	Networks	
Transporta*on	costs	add	50%	to	75%	in	Rwanda,	Malawi	and	Uganda.		
Upgrading	interna*onal	roads	and	a	revival	of	rail	is	a	high	priority	but	
	the	payback	for	China	in	funding	much	of	this	raises	many	ques*ons.
Digital	Connec?vity	in	Africa	
Across	different	African	na*ons,	the	current	levels	of	digital	connec*vity	varies	
significantly.	SSA	accounts	for	1/10	of	global	mobile	subscribers	and	is		
expected	to	grow	faster	that	every	other	region	over	the	next	five	years.	
Smartphone	Penetra*on	(GSMA	2017)	
3G/4G	Network	Coverage	
Mobile	Penetra?on	
<50%	
50-75%	
>75%	
South	Africa	
100%	
50%	
50%	25%	0%	
Nigeria	
Sudan	
AFRICA	
GLOBAL	
ECOWAS	
ECCAS	
EAC	
SADC	
Tanzania
Leapfrogging	to	Leaders	
Some	African	economies	do	more	than	catch	up.	As	with	mobile	telecoms,		
they	are	adop*ng	new	energy	systems	early,	leapfrogging	the	West	with	some		
rapidly	also	becoming	leaders	in	low-cost	services	to	a	growing	middle	class.
Kenya	Already	Leading	
Due	to	the	success	of	m-Pesa,	Kenya	is	widely	recognized	as	a	leading	hub	for	mobile	
payments.	Moving	ahead,	with	increased	investment	and	interest	from	the	likes	of	
Facebook,	Nairobi	may	well	become	one	of	the	world’s	most	innova*ve	ci*es.
Africa	4.0
Op?mized	Solar	
Incorpora*ng	AI	algorithms	into	the	management	of	solar	supply	and	demand	
networks	can	significantly	improve	efficiency	of	energy	consump*on	via	
	localized	smart	grids	-	where	everyone	is	an	energy	producer	and	consumer.
Op?mising	Last	Mile	Delivery	
	Seamless,	integrated	and	shared	last-mile	delivery	replaces	inefficient		
compe**on	and	duplica*on	of	goods	distribu*on.	Greater	efficiency	in	moving		
things	is	as	important	as	in	moving	people	and	so	a	major	focus	for	innova*on.
Financial	Inclusion	
Improving	access	to,	as	well	as	trust	in,	new	banking	plamorms	is	expected	to	
significantly	enhance	financial	inclusion.	From	a	regulatory	perspec*ve,	DRC	is		
already	seen	as	one	of	the	most	proac*ve	na*ons	in	the	world	for	mobile	payments.
Fric?onless	Currency	Transfer	
To	improve	trade	flows	enhancing	interna*onal	remiQance	payments	is	a	major	focus.	
Using	a	combina*on	of	mobile	and	bitcoin,	more	are	looking	to	avoid	high	bank	
charges	as	new	digital	forex	exchanges	are	emerging	fast	across	the	con*nent.
Smart	Government	
Many	are	hoping	that	greater	ICT	access	and	broadband	adop*on	will	improve	
government	efficiency	and	transparency.	With	the	private	sector	as	a	priority,	the	
Smart	Africa	Manifesto	has	been	endorsed	by	most	and	partnerships	are	in	mo*on.
Digital	Iden??es	
As	mul*-factor	biometrics	and	widespread	fingerprint	driven	iden*ty	verifica*on		
takes	hold,	authen*ca*on	and	engagement	of	the	wider	popula*on	increases.	
As	in	India,	digital	iden**es	may	well	open	the	door	to	the	mainstream.
The	Rise	of	Machines		
The	growth	in	the	intelligence	and	capabili*es	of	machines	presents	both	a	threat	and	
an	opportunity:	Greater	AI	and	automa*on	will	free	up	*me,	but	also	threaten	jobs:	
Already	short	of	1m	engineers,	bridging	the	digital	skills	gap	is	an	Africa	priority.
Healthcare	Efficiency		
With	greater	levels	of	mobile	health,	remote	support	is	extending	reach,	reducing	
costs	and	improving	healthcare	efficiency.	Africa	and	India	are	both	seen	as	leaders	for	
start-ups	partnering	with	networks	to	improve	compliance,	stock	and	affordability.
Drone	Delivery	
With	early	success	of	pilots	in	Rwanda,	the	delivery	of	blood	products	and		
vaccines	by	drone	is	being	supported	as	a	major	change	agent	for	public	health.		
Add	in	greater	automa*on	and	naviga*on	and	the	impact	scales	significantly.
Agricultural	Produc?vity	
With	increasing	access	to	real	*me	analy*cs	and	data	visualisa*on,	more	farmers	are	
able	to	beQer	align	irriga*on	and	fer*lizer	use	and	so	improve	yields.	In	Ghana	and	
Cameroon	shared	data	is	reducing	price	asymmetry	and	lowering	payment	costs.
Land	Administra?on	
Few	African	farmers	currently	have	rights	over	the	land	they	work.	Adop*ng	a	digital	
approach,	such	as	block-chain,	to	assign	and	manage	rights	may	be	transforma*onal	
	– unlocking	‘dark	capital’	can	significantly	improve	yields	and	investment.
Risk	Mi?ga?on	
Across	a	con*nent	of	many	na*ons,	managing	risk	is	an	increasing	focus.		
BeQer	regional	integra*on	is	seen	as		a	core	component	as	is	wider	adop*on	of		
digital	iden**es	for	payments,	social	security	and	ci*zenship.
Deeper	Collabora?on	
	Partnerships	shiJ	to	become	more	dynamic,	long-term,	democra*sed,		
mul*-party	collabora*ons.	Compe*tor	alliances	and	wider	public	par*cipa*on		
drive	regulators	to	create	new	legal	frameworks	for	open,	empathe*c	collabora*on.
Five	Ques?ons	for	Africa	4.0
System	Efficiency	
What	levels	of	impact	from	Africa	4.0	can	be	expected	in	key	areas	of	the	economy?	
Which	are	most	open	to	change,	which	have	the	greatest	poten*al	for	change	
and	which	have	the	ability	to	drive	the	change	most	effec*vely?
Disrup?on	Poten?al	
As	more	entrepreneurs	become	connected	and	enabled	to	innovate,	what	sectors		
will	be	those	most	open	to	major	disrup*on	and	reinven*on	and	which	will		
nurture	start-ups	able	to	have	significant	impact	on	the	global	stage?
Sharing	the	Benefits	
As	the	influence	of	Africa	4.0	spreads	and	improves	efficiency	and	impact,		
further	economic	growth	will	follow.	How	will	the	benefits	be	shared	more		
equitably	across	the	whole	of	society	and	not	just	between	the	leadership?
China’s	Extending	Influence		
China	is	already	Africa’s	biggest	trading	partner	and	is	behind	much	of	the	new	
infrastructure	investments.	How	will	na*ons	best	manage	this	rela*onship	in	the	
digital	world	and	prevent	it	from	being	the	21st	century	version	of	coloniza*on?
Government	Collabora?on	
Data	does	not	recognize	na*onal	boundaries.	It	flows	wherever	it	is	wanted.	
How	can	African	governments	and	industries	improve	collabora*on	on	Africa	4.0		
to	enable	the	poten*al	of	digitaliza*on	being	discussed	to	best	be	realized?
Future	Agenda	
84	Brook	Street	
London	
W1K	5EH	
+44	203	0088	141	
futureagenda.org	
The	world’s	leading	open	foresight	program	
What	do	you	think?	
Join	In	|	Add	your	views	into	the	mix	
	
www.futureagenda.org

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