The document discusses the transformative impact of software on industries, highlighting the importance of experimentation and adaptability in software development. It introduces concepts such as the Black Swan theory and the Cynefin framework to illustrate the complexities of problem-solving in unpredictable environments. The emphasis is on conducting small, affordable experiments to enhance decision-making and improve software selection through trialsourcing.

1. angelo.scotto@computer.org

2. all of
the technology required to transform industries
through software finally works
Why Software Is Eating the World, 2011

4. information-based
environment
information-enable
drop to
zero
Law of Accelerating returns, 2001

5. • Weight, height, and
calorie consumption are
from Mediocristan,
wealth is Extremistan.
• Black Swan is an event
with the following three
attributes: Rarity,
extreme 'impact‘ and
retrospective
predictability.
ExtremistanBlack swan theory

6. • Cynefin Framework is a
problem-solving /
decision-making tool.
• Problem solving is not a
"one-size-fits-all"
process.
• Complex contexts are
often unpredictable,
Cause and effect can
only be deduced in
retrospect.
Cynefin Framework

8. “Instructive
patterns,
however, can
emerge if the
leader conducts
experiments that
are safe to fail.”
Snowden & Boone, 2007

12. ExO Attribute:
Experimentation

13. Software development is and always will be somewhat
experimental
It’s where our focus always
ought to have been
Software Engineering: An idea whose time has come and gone?

15. having multiple providers create sample
pieces of software for evaluation
Better Selection of Software Providers through Trialsourcing

16. 0
20
40
60
gen-17 mag-17 set-17 gen-18 mag-18 set-18 gen-19 mag-19
Typical "Project" costs profile
0
20
40
60
gen-17 giu-17 nov-17 apr-18 set-18 feb-19 lug-19 dic-19
Typical "Product" costs
profile
constant
experimental approach
Jez Humble, 2016

17. Instead of making a go/no go decision
budget small experiments
Gil Zilberfeld, 2015

18. • adapt
is a requirement
• continuously experiment
• be prepared to fail
•
make failure affordable

19. angelo.scotto@computer.org