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A-18.ppt
1. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DIVISION
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATICTICS OF TURKEY
Murat TOPKAYA
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for the Implementation of the
2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September 2013
2. OUTLINE
• Legal Framework
• Methodology
• Compilation Method
• Major Data Sources
• Main Items
• Publications
• BPM6 Implementation
3. LEGAL FRAMEWORK
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY (CBRT) LAW
Law No: 1211
Date of Acceptance: 14.1.1970
PART IV- Authority to request information, the balance sheets and reports of banks
Article 43- (As amended by Law No. 4651 of April 25, 2001)
Paragraph 4: «… The Bank shall be authorized to directly request and collect, all statistical information
relating to financial system and other statistical information that shall be deemed necessary for the
surveillance of developments in the economy and the balance of payments, from banks, other
financial institutions and persons. The aforesaid persons shall be obliged to submit these information
accurately within the period and form to be determined by the Bank. The Bank shall be authorized to
investigate and supervise the accuracy of these information at the concerned parties, and to request
additional information and documents.»
Paragraph 5: «… The Bank may publish the statistical information that it deems necessary. However, the Bank
shall not publish, disclose or submit the statistical information having a private and personal nature to an
official authority or private body other than the Banking Regulation and Auditing Institution. These
information shall not be used for purposes other than statistics and shall not be considered as
evidence.»
4. METHODOLOGY
• IMF Balance of Payments Manual 5th Edition (BPM5)
Studies are still in-progress for adopting the 6th Edition (Balance of Payments and International
Investment Position – BPM6), planned to be finalized in 2014.
2 Basic Principles
Economic Territory
Residency
Accounting Principles
Double entry
Change of ownership
Market value
Conversion
Unit of Account: USD
5. COMPILATION METHOD
• International Transactions Reporting System - ITRS
Foreign exchange transaction reports of the resident banks
and the CBRT : “Monthly FX Reports”
• Direct Reporting
Data provided through direct reporting of the related resident
enterprises
• Administrative Records
6. MAJOR DATA SOURCES - I
• International Transactions Reporting System - ITRS:
“Monthly FX Reports” of the banks and the CBRT
• Foreign trade statistics compiled by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat)
• Credit and debit figures on freight and insurance regarding merchandise trade, provided by
Turkstat
• The surveys conducted by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Turkstat and the CBRT on
travel revenues and receipts
• Data provided through direct reporting of the related resident enterprises
• Stocks data on nonresidents’ portfolio investments provided from custodian banks
• Annual direct investment survey
• Financial press
7. MAIN ITEMS
• Current Account
– Goods
– Services
– Income
– Current Transfers
• Capital and Financial Account
– Direct Investment
– Portfolio Investment
– Other Investment
– Reserve Assets
• Net Errors and Omissions
8. CURRENT ACCOUNT
GOODS
Foreign Trade Statistics (Turkstat)
• Exports f.o.b. basis
• Imports c.i.f. basis
• Imports adjusted as f.o.b.
• Shuttle Trade: Survey conducted by Turkstat
– Average Expenditure
– Number of shuttle traders
9. CURRENT ACCOUNT
SERVİCES
• Transportation
– Freight
– Other Transportation
• Travel
• Construction Services
• Insurance Services
• Financial Services
• Other Business Services
• Government Services
• Other Services
10. CURRENT ACCOUNT
TRANSPORTATION-I
Freight
– In the balance of payments statistics, freight services provided to
nonresidents by resident transport operators regarding exports are
recorded as credit, whereas freight services acquired from nonresident
operators by residents regarding imports are recorded as debit.
– Credit and debit figures for freight services are calculated within the
framework of the results of a monthly study performed by Turkstat based
on the invoices attached to customs declaration forms.
11. CURRENT ACCOUNT
TRANSPORTATION-II
Modes of Transport
1-Sea Transport
2-Air Transport
3-Other Transport
Other Transportation / Credit – Debit
• Passenger
• Air (Source: Domestic and Foreign Airline Operators)
• Other
• Air (Source: Domestic and Foreign Airline Operators,
General Directorate of State Airports Authority)
• Sea (Source: General Directorate of Coastal Safety)
12. CURRENT ACCOUNT
SERVİCES
• Travel:
– Revenues : TURKSTAT Departing Foreign Visitors Survey
– Expenditures: TURKSTAT Arriving Citizens Survey
• Construction Services:
– "Monthly FX Reports" of resident banks
• Insurance Services:
– Surveys conducted within resident insurance companies
– Freight insurance provided by Turkstat
• Remaining Other Services:
– Monthly FX Reports of the resident banks and the CBRT
– Surveys conducted with various companies
13. CURRENT ACCOUNT
INCOME & CURRENT TRANSFERS
CURRENT ACCOUNT/ INCOME:
• Compensation of Employees:
– Calculated by data provided by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security foreigners
who have been granted work permits
• Investment Income:
– Monthly FX Reports of the resident banks and the CBRT
– Reinvested Earnings: Annual inward direct investment survey
CURRENT ACCOUNT/ CURRENT TRANSFERS:
– Monthly FX Reports of the resident banks and the CBRT
14. CAPITAL ACCOUNT
• Migrant’s Transfer: Official Records
• Acquisition or Disposal of Non-produced and Non-financial Assets:
– Turkish sport clubs which report revenues gained and expenses incurred
from nonresident sports clubs for the transfer of a player.
15. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
DIRECT INVESTMENT
• Equity Capital: Monthly FX Reports of the banks
• Equity Capital/Non-cash transactions: Ministry of Economy
• Reinvested earnings: Annual inward direct investment survey
• Other Capital: Banks’ reports on a credit by credit basis
• Real Estate: «Departing Visitors Survey» and administrative records
of General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre
• «The Daily Bulletins» of Borsa Istanbul and financial press are also
used.
16. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT
Assets
• Monthly FX Reports of the banks and the CBRT
Liabilities
• Equity Securities: Central Registry Agency of Turkey (CRA)
• Debt Securities/Issued In International Markets:
Monthly FX Reports of the banks and the CBRT
• Debt Securities/Issued Domestically and Purchased by Non-residents:
• Issued by the General Government: Custodian banks, on a security by
security basis
• Issued by Banks and Other Sectors: CRA, on a security by security basis
17. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
OTHER INVESTMENT-I
Assets
• Trade Credits
• Disbursements: Turkstat exports by type of payments data
• Repayments: Estimated by an moving average method
• Loans: Monthly FX Reports of the banks and the CBRT
• Currency and Deposits
• Banks: Monthly FX Reports and the trial balances of the banks
• Other Sectors: BIS Locational Banking Statistics
18. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
OTHER INVESTMENT-II
Liabilities
• Trade Credits:
• Disbursements: Turkstat imports figures for cash against goods and monthly
FX Reports of the banks for the remaining types of payments
• Repayments: Estimated by an moving average method
• Loans: Monthly FX Reports of the banks and the CBRT
Private Sector External Debt Monitoring System (PS-EDMS): Short-term
loans of all sectors & long-term trade credits, loans and international
bond issues of the private sector on a credit by credit basis
• Currency and Deposits: Monthly FX Reports of the banks and the CBRT
and banks’ trial balances
20. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
PUBLICATIONS
• Balance of Payments Statistics
• International Investment Position
• Outstanding Loans Received From Abroad by Private Sector
• Short-term External Debt Statistics
• International Reserves/Foreign Currency Liquidity
• Real Effective Exchange Rate
• Bank For International Settlements (BIS) - Consolidated And Locational
Banking Statistics
21. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- I
• Implementation of BPM6 standards will be starting in 2014.
• BOP data for 2002-2012 periods were converted to BPM6 template.
• The ODEN (Balance of Payments) Project was implemented.
Aims to reduce human intervention to a minimum
XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based report forms
Automated cross-checks
Flexible Data Compilation Process
Fully Integrated System
22. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- II
• Studies within the context of BPM6:
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others
(Goods for Processing)
Maintenance and repair services (Repairs on Goods)
are recorded under Services, where these items were recorded under goods in
BPM5.
Compiled within an on-going study by the TURKSTAT and to be reflected in
the BOP statistics of Turkey.
23. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- III
• Studies within the context of BPM6:
Taking into account the changes in the methodology of the tourism
statistics by European Statistics Office (EUROSTAT) and United
Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Turkish Statistical
Institute (TURKSTAT) announced on February 14, 2013 with a Press
Release that its tourism statistics methodology was revised.
International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics (IRTS 2008)
It is recommended that tourism statistics should allow tourism related
expenditure to be identified in “travel” and “international passenger
transport” as a supplementary item to the standard components of the
balance of payments. This is also a recommendation that is explicitly
mentioned for the balance of payments compilation.
24. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- IV
• Revisions and expenditures included in tourism income:
International transportation expenditures of visitors realized by using
domestic companies
Marina service expenditures of visitors such as rent, electricity, water
etc.
GSM roaming expenditures of visitors
The revision of the ratio of the amount of package tour expenditures
remained in Turkey which is determined in 2001
• Revisions and expenditures included in tourism expenditures:
International transportation expenditures of Turkish citizens realized by
using foreign companies
GSM roaming expenditures of Turkish citizens
The revision of the ratio of the amount of package tour expenditures
remained abroad which is determined in 2003
25. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- V
With the publication of January, 2013 balance of payments statistics, consistent
with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Balance of Payments Manual 5th Edition
(BPM5), since the items;
* Current Account / Services / Transportation / Other Transportation and
* Current Account / Services / Other Servies
already covers “international transportation fees” and “GSM roaming fees”, only
other revisions resulted from “updating the package tour ratio” and “marina
services” has been reflected in “Current Account/Travel” item covering the period
between 2003-2012.
26. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- VI
• Studies within the context of BPM6:
FISIM and other implicit financial services are planned to be calculated
and included in services.
Insurance Services, namely, (a) Direct Insurance, (b) Reinsurance,
(c) Auxiliary insurance services, (d) Pension and standardized
guaranteed services as defined in BPM6, are planned to be
recalculated to adjust for claim volatility, taking into account also the
premium supplements.
27. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- VII
• Studies within the context of BPM6:
A separate supplementary breakdown of travel will be provided
according to product group, namely: (a) goods, (b) local transport
services, (c) accommodation services, (d) food-serving services, and
(e) other services. This breakdown is already available in the
TURKSTAT Departing Foreign Visitors and Arriving Citizens surveys.
Financial derivatives transactions
28. BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION- VIII
• Studies within the context of BPM6:
Following the meeting on ITS statistics held in November 2011 under the
co-ordination of the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy and with the
participation of the CBRT and TURKSTAT officials:
– A strategic action plan was adopted,
– Working groups were formed also with the participation of the related
regulatory and supervisory institutions,
– Meetings were held throughout 2012 with a focus on the following
services items: “Travel”, “Transportation”, “Construction”, “Audio-
visual Services”, “Computer Services”, “Education Services” and
“Health Services”.
– The work is still in progress for this joint long-term study.
Doğrusal Model;
Hedonik fiyat fonksiyonu kalıbının doğrusal olması, özelliklerde meydana gelen mutlak artış ya da azalışların konutun fiyatında mutlak artış ya da azalışlara neden olacağı anlamına gelmektedir.
𝑃=𝛼+𝛽_1 𝑋_1+𝛽_2 𝑋_2+𝛽_3 𝑋_3+……………𝛽_𝑛 𝑋_𝑛+𝜀_𝑖
𝑃 = Konutun fiyatı,
𝑋_𝑛 = Konutun sahip olduğu özellikler,
𝛼 = sabit terim,
𝛽 = her bir özelliğin hedonik fiyatı,
𝜀_𝑖= hata termi
Sabit terim, konutun sahip olduğu özelliklerin her birinin sıfır değerine (𝑿_(𝟏,) 𝑿_(𝟐, ) 𝑿_𝟑…..,𝑿_𝒏=𝟎 ) sahip olması durumunda konutun fiyatını ifade etmektedir.
Tam Logaritmik Model
𝑙𝑛𝑃=𝛼+𝛽_1 𝑙𝑛𝑋_1+𝛽_2 𝑙𝑛𝑋_2+………+𝛽_𝑛 〖𝑙𝑛𝑋〗_𝑛+𝜀_𝑖
Tam logaritmik model, bağımsız değişken olan 𝑋_1′de yüzde birlik bir değişim bağımlı değişken olan 𝑃’de yüzde 𝛽1 kadar değişime yol açacaktır” şeklinde yorumlanmaktadır.
Doğrusal Model;
Hedonik fiyat fonksiyonu kalıbının doğrusal olması, özelliklerde meydana gelen mutlak artış ya da azalışların konutun fiyatında mutlak artış ya da azalışlara neden olacağı anlamına gelmektedir.
𝑃=𝛼+𝛽_1 𝑋_1+𝛽_2 𝑋_2+𝛽_3 𝑋_3+……………𝛽_𝑛 𝑋_𝑛+𝜀_𝑖
𝑃 = Konutun fiyatı,
𝑋_𝑛 = Konutun sahip olduğu özellikler,
𝛼 = sabit terim,
𝛽 = her bir özelliğin hedonik fiyatı,
𝜀_𝑖= hata termi
Sabit terim, konutun sahip olduğu özelliklerin her birinin sıfır değerine (𝑿_(𝟏,) 𝑿_(𝟐, ) 𝑿_𝟑…..,𝑿_𝒏=𝟎 ) sahip olması durumunda konutun fiyatını ifade etmektedir.
Tam Logaritmik Model
𝑙𝑛𝑃=𝛼+𝛽_1 𝑙𝑛𝑋_1+𝛽_2 𝑙𝑛𝑋_2+………+𝛽_𝑛 〖𝑙𝑛𝑋〗_𝑛+𝜀_𝑖
Tam logaritmik model, bağımsız değişken olan 𝑋_1′de yüzde birlik bir değişim bağımlı değişken olan 𝑃’de yüzde 𝛽1 kadar değişime yol açacaktır” şeklinde yorumlanmaktadır.