1. Cooperation, conflict and complexity;
India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and
opportunities for water interactions
Paula Hanasz
PhD candidate
Australian National University
Crawford School of Public Policy

2. Agenda
2

3. Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
2

4. Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
2

5. Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity?
2

6. Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity?
• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?
2

7. Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity?
• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?
• Where do the challenges and opportunities
lie?
2

8. Water in South Asia
3

9. Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
3

10. Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
• India is perceived as a water
bully
3

11. Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
• India is perceived as a water
bully
• Lack of meaningful
multilateralism
3

12. Conflict & cooperation
4

13. Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!
4

14. Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!
Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!
4

15. Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!
Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!
• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict
4

16. Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!
Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!
• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict
• ‘water interactions’ better conveys
complexity
4

17. Complexity
5

18. Complexity
• Complex ≠
complicated
5

19. India’s hydro-hegemony
6

20. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
6

21. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
6

22. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
6

23. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
India + Pakistan = securitisation of water
6

24. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
India + Pakistan = securitisation of water
India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest
6

25. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
India + Pakistan = securitisation of water
India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest
--------------------------------------------------------
6

26. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
India + Pakistan = securitisation of water
India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest
-------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions
6

27. India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
India + Pakistan = securitisation of water
India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest
-------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions
≠ water wars
6

28. Challenges & opportunities
7

29. Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
7

30. Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
7

31. Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
• Nuanced
understanding of water
interactions
7

32. Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
• Nuanced
understanding of water
interactions
• Indian leadership of
multilateral
transboundary water
management
7

33. Paula.Hanasz@anu.edu.au
@paulahanasz
8

34. Is India a hydro-hegemon?
Pillars of Hydro Hegemony
Power
• Political
• Economic
• Military
Riparian
position
Potential for
water
resource
exploitation
Relative size
Political/economic/military power
Riparian position
Potential for water resource exploitation
9

35. What are water interactions?
Confrontation of
the issue
Conflict intensity
Low
Ad hoc
Nonpoliticised
Technical
Risk averting
Risk-taking
cooperation
Positive interactions
Neutral interactions
Politicised
Securitised/
Opportunitised
Negative
interactions
Violised
High
Low
Cooperation intensity
High
TWINS amended from N. Mirumachi and J.A. Allan, 2007, ‘Revisiting Transboundary Water Governance: Power, Conflict, Cooperation and the Political Economy’ and
M. Zeitoun and N. Mirumachi, 2008, ‘Transboundary water interaction 1: reconsidering conflict and cooperation’
10

36. Case study: India-Nepal TWINS
Confrontation of
the issue
Conflict intensity
Low
Ad hoc
Technical
Nonpoliticised
Risk averting
Risk-taking
cooperation
Positive interactions
2008
Neutral interactions
1990
Politicised
1950
1920
1996
’50s
‘60s
Securitised/
Opportunitised
Negative
interactions
Violised
High
Low
Cooperation intensity
High
11