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Presentation by Professor David Waltner-Toews of Veterinarians without Borders, Canada, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Domestic extensions: the bushmeat ban and the social realities of hunting and...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Ann Kelly of the University of Exeter/King's College London, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, at the Zoological Society of London, 17-18 March, 2016
Understanding zoonotic impacts: the added value from One Health approachesNaomi Marks
This document discusses the benefits of mass vaccination programs for animal diseases that can infect humans (zoonoses).
It first presents data showing that mass vaccinating 25 million livestock animals in Mongolia against brucellosis would provide over $30 million in total societal benefits, including public health benefits, private health benefits, reduced household income loss, and agricultural benefits.
It then uses a mathematical model to show that mass dog vaccination is less costly than human post-exposure prophylaxis for controlling rabies transmission between dogs and humans.
Finally, it references a study that found an approach combining dog and human vaccination for rabies control in N'Djaména to be more cost-effective than human
Pre-empting the emergence of zoonoses by understanding their socio-ecologyNaomi Marks
Keynote presentation by Dr Peter Daqszak, President, EcoHealth Alliance, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
One Health networks - why should we bother?Naomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Victor Galaz of the Stockholm Resilience Institute at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, 17-18 March 2016.
Beyond risk factors: untangling power and politics in zoonisis controlNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Kevin Bardosh of the University of Edinburgh at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, 17-18 March 2016.
Social dimensions of zoonoses in interdisciplinary researchNaomi Marks
This document summarizes Dr. Hayley MacGregor's research on the social dimensions of zoonoses (diseases that can be transmitted between animals and humans) in emerging livestock systems. It discusses two key areas: 1) how cultural and social practices influence zoonotic risk, and 2) the relationship between humans and animals. For area 1, it describes how factors like intensification of production, supply chains, processing practices, markets and consumer demand can drive zoonotic risk. For area 2, it discusses how human-animal relations blur traditional categories, and how the health of humans and animals is interdependent.
Agricultural intensification and Nipah virus emergenceNaomi Marks
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Estimating the contribution of human-to-human transmission to Lassa fever'Naomi Marks
'Estimating the contribution of human-to-human transmission to Lassa fever', presented by Gianni Lo Iacono, of the Dynamic drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, at EWDA 2014
Ecohealth 2014 gianni lo iacono presentation on integrative modellingNaomi Marks
'A mechanistic model at the interface between epidemiology, ecology and environmental drivers', presented by Gianni Lo Iacono as part of a panel presentation on integrative modelling from the Dynamic Drivers of Disease Consortium at Ecohealth 2014
Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa 'Ecohealth 2014' presentation on integra...Naomi Marks
Panel presentation on integrative disease modelling given at Ecohealth 2014 conference. Panel members included: Delia Grace, Pete Atkinson, Gianni Lo Iacono, Johanna Lindahl and Catherine Grant.
Bernard bett delia grace climate change impacts on animal health and vector ...Naomi Marks
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One Health for the Real World: partnerships and pragmatismNaomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Sarah Cleaveland of the University of Glasgow at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
The FAO/OIE/WHO Tripartite: an institutional void?Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Jan Slingenbergh, independent One Health policy adviser, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
A critical social analysis of poverty and zoonotic disease riskNaomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Jo Sharp of the University of Glasgow at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Agent-based modelling as an integrative framework for One Health: trypanosomi...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Peter Atkinson of Lancaster University of Zimbabwe at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Investigating the spatial epidemiology of zoonotic viral haemorrhagic feversNaomi Marks
This document discusses investigating the spatial epidemiology of zoonotic viral haemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola. It examines using species distribution models to spatially assess the potential for animal transmission of diseases like Ebola to humans. It also examines using these models to spatially assess how diseases spread through human populations after initial transmission. The document outlines how boosted regression trees can be used to model disease suitability based on environmental correlates and make predictions about potential risk areas. It concludes by discussing the need to better understand disease dynamics in animal reservoirs and human exposure risk to predict spillover events.
Presentation by Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
A mathematical model for Rift Valley fever transmission dynamicsNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Irrigation and the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission - a case study from...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Tsetse, trypanosomiasis and communities in transition: investigations into he...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Neil Anderson of the University of Edinburgh at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Presentation by Dr Lina Moses of Tulane University at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Human-bat interactions and diseases: transmission risks in GhanaNaomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Yaa Ntiamoa-Baidu of the University of Ghana at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Patches, Tsetse and Livelihoods in the Zambezi Valley, ZimbabweNaomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Vupenyu Dzingirai of the University of Zimbabwe at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Keynote presentation by Dr Delia Grace of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
The Real World: One Health - zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeingNaomi Marks
Opening keynote presentation by Professor Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Motivation, culture and health in a socio-ecological system in AfricaNaomi Marks
Keynote presentation by Professor Bassirou Bonfoh, Director-General, Swiss Centre for Scientific Research (CSRS), Côte d'Ivoire, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Estimating the contribution of human-to-human transmission to Lassa fever'Naomi Marks
'Estimating the contribution of human-to-human transmission to Lassa fever', presented by Gianni Lo Iacono, of the Dynamic drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, at EWDA 2014
Ecohealth 2014 gianni lo iacono presentation on integrative modellingNaomi Marks
'A mechanistic model at the interface between epidemiology, ecology and environmental drivers', presented by Gianni Lo Iacono as part of a panel presentation on integrative modelling from the Dynamic Drivers of Disease Consortium at Ecohealth 2014
Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa 'Ecohealth 2014' presentation on integra...Naomi Marks
Panel presentation on integrative disease modelling given at Ecohealth 2014 conference. Panel members included: Delia Grace, Pete Atkinson, Gianni Lo Iacono, Johanna Lindahl and Catherine Grant.
Bernard bett delia grace climate change impacts on animal health and vector ...Naomi Marks
'Climate change impacts on animal health and vector borne diseases. Presentation by Bernard Bett and Delia Grace of the International Livestock Research Institute to a USAID climate change technical officers meeting
Bernard bett delia grace climate change impacts on animal health and vector ...
A unified framework for the infection dynamics of zoonotic spillover and spread
1. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa
Integrating our understandings of zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing
A unified framework for the infection
dynamics of zoonotic spillover and spread
Gianni Lo Iacono1,2
1
Department Veterinary Medicine University of Cambridge, UK
2
Departmen of Environmental Change, Public Health England, UK
2. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Andrew A. Cunningham 2
, Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet 3
, Robert F. Garry 4
,
Donald S. Grant 5
, Melissa Leach 6
, Lina M. Moses 4
, Gordon Nichols 7
John
S. Schieffelin 8
, Jeffrey G. Shaffer 9
, Collen Webb 10
, James L. N. Wood 1
1 Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United
Kingdom.
2 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London. United Kingdom
3 Bernhard-Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine. Hamburg, Germany
4 Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
5 Lassa Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
6 Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. Brighton, United Kingdom
7 Public Health England, United Kingdom
8 Sections of Infectious Disease, Departments of Pediatrics and Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Tulane
University, New Orleans, LA, USA
9 Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New
Orleans, LA, USA
10 Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
3. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
Setting up traps in the mining area
in Sierra Leone
If we know the abundance of,
the reservoir,
4. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
Setting up traps in the mining area
in Sierra Leone
Blood sampling in bats in Ghana
If we know the abundance of, the infection prevalence in,
the reservoir,
5. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
Setting up traps in the mining area
in Sierra Leone
Blood sampling in bats in Ghana Participatory mapping in Sierra
Leone
If we know the abundance of, the infection prevalence in, and
exposure to the reservoir,
6. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
Setting up traps in the mining area
in Sierra Leone
Blood sampling in bats in Ghana Participatory mapping in Sierra
Leone
If we know the abundance of, the infection prevalence in, and
exposure to the reservoir, can we estimate the likelihood of the
next spillover event?
7. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
From: Lloyd-Smith, J et al. (2009). Epidemic dynamics at the
human-animal interface. Science, 326(5958).
8. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
From: Lloyd-Smith, J et al. (2009). Epidemic dynamics at the
human-animal interface. Science, 326(5958).
A need for unification
How to compare different stages?
9. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Key Questions
From: Lloyd-Smith, J et al. (2009). Epidemic dynamics at the
human-animal interface. Science, 326(5958).
A need for unification
How to compare different stages?
How to disentangle the contribution of
human-to-human transmission from zoonotic
spillover?
10. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Dynamcs of Lassa Fever
Human-‐to-‐Human
Transmission
through
close
contacts,
probably
via
body
fluids.
Previous
es8mates
suggest
~
20%
of
cases
can
be
a?ributed
to
human-‐to-‐human
transmission
Nosocomial
Transmission.
e.g.
exchange
of
infected
needles
Rodent-‐to-‐Rodent
Transmission.
Unclear
reasons
for
maintenance.
Transmission
pa?erns
are
further
confounded
due
to
seasonality
in
Mastomys
natalensis.
abundance
and
in
infec8on
prevalence.
These
factors
are
also
affected
by
the
habitat
(rodents
living
near
houses
vs
rodents
living
in
the
proximity
of
villages)
Mastomys
natalensis
Repor6ng
Bias.
Many
cases
are
not
reported
despite
improvement
in
community
outreach
and
surveillance
ac8vi8es.
Infrastructure
quality
(roads
are
oJen
flooded
during
the
rainy
season),
economic
and
social
factors
(people
have
limited
economic
resources
in
the
rainy
season)
might
introduce
seasonal
bias
in
repor8ng.
Rodent-‐to-‐Human
Transmission.
Transmission
through
domes8c/
agricultural
exposure.
12. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Modelling the risk of spillover events
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0 10 20 30
Occurrence
Density
From knowedge of mean and
variance of abundance, prevalence
etc. → Infer the risk of spillover in
humans
20. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Comparison with real data from Sierra Leone
Constant zoonotic exposure
Red Line − : Kenema Gov. Hospital data
Blue Lines − : 5 individual stochastic model realizations
Black Line −: Average model predictions
Grey dots · · · : 100 stochastic model realizations
21. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Comparison with real data from Sierra Leone
Constant zoonotic exposure
Piecewise, linearly variable zoonotic
exposure
Red Line − : Kenema Gov. Hospital data
Blue Lines − : 5 individual stochastic model realizations
Black Line −: Average model predictions
Grey dots · · · : 100 stochastic model realizations
22. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Comparison with real data from Sierra Leone
Constant zoonotic exposure
Piecewise, linearly variable zoonotic
exposure
Red Line − : Kenema Gov. Hospital data
Blue Lines − : 5 individual stochastic model realizations
Black Line −: Average model predictions
Grey dots · · · : 100 stochastic model realizations
A case of un-identifiability
Different assumptions are equally compatible with the empirical
data
23. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Comparison with real data from Sierra Leone
Constant zoonotic exposure
Piecewise, linearly variable zoonotic
exposure
Red Line − : Kenema Gov. Hospital data
Blue Lines − : 5 individual stochastic model realizations
Black Line −: Average model predictions
Grey dots · · · : 100 stochastic model realizations
A case of un-identifiability
Different assumptions are equally compatible with the empirical
data
Such un-identifiabilityis is expected to be removed as soon as
more accurate data on exposure rates and rodent infection
prevalence become available.
24. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Comparison with real data from Sierra Leone
Constant zoonotic exposure
Piecewise, linearly variable zoonotic
exposure
Red Line − : Kenema Gov. Hospital data
Blue Lines − : 5 individual stochastic model realizations
Black Line −: Average model predictions
Grey dots · · · : 100 stochastic model realizations
A case of un-identifiability
Different assumptions are equally compatible with the empirical
data
Such un-identifiabilityis is expected to be removed as soon as
more accurate data on exposure rates and rodent infection
prevalence become available.
Only a general knowledge of the time-dependency of these
quantities
25. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Work
A unified framework for spillover and stuttering chain
26. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Work
A unified framework for spillover and stuttering chain
Signature for identify human-to-human transmission, and
procedure to quantify it..
27. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Work
A unified framework for spillover and stuttering chain
Signature for identify human-to-human transmission, and
procedure to quantify it..
..but it is a signature that can be forged!
28. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Work
A unified framework for spillover and stuttering chain
Signature for identify human-to-human transmission, and
procedure to quantify it..
..but it is a signature that can be forged!
Future Work: Remove Un-identifiability
29. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Work
A unified framework for spillover and stuttering chain
Signature for identify human-to-human transmission, and
procedure to quantify it..
..but it is a signature that can be forged!
Future Work: Remove Un-identifiability
Future Work: Impact of super-spreaders
30. Introduction Methods and Results Conclusions
Acknowledgments
This work for the Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium was funded with
support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme. The
ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID),
the Economic and Social Research Council (alertESRC) and the Natural Environment
Research Council (alertNERC, Project NE-J001570-1 ). See more at:
http://www.espa.ac.uk/
Thanks also to my current employer, Public Health England and the National Institute
for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU), for giving me the
opportunity to be here today