Apresentação do artigo "A system dynamics approach for aiding effects-based operations planning" no XVIII Simpósio de Aplicações Operacionais em Áreas de Defesa (SIGE), em São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil. O artigo completo se encontra disponível em: http://www.sige.ita.br/anais/XVIIISIGE/pdf/ST_05_2.pdf

1. INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE AERONÁUTICA

2. A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
FOR AIDING EFFECTS-BASED
OPERATIONS PLANNING
José Carlos de Melo Júnior
Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain
Ana Lucia Pegetti

3. The environment in which
military operations occur
have changed.
complexity
uncertainty

4. 58,209 153,303 $168 BILLION
DEATHS WOUNDED COSTS OF THE WAR

5. EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS: THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
Smith, Edward
“ The terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001
fundamentally changed our
security environment. The
system of strategic deterrence
in place since the beginning of
the Cold War visibly collapsed.

6. Probability of Success =
MEANS X WILL²
GREAT MEANS
LIMITED WILL
LIMITED MEANS
GREAT WILL

7. Effects
Based
Operations
COGNITIVE
Domain1
INFORMATION
Domain2
PHYSICAL
Domain3
Shaping Behaviour:
Operations in the
Cognitive Domain.

8. Bounded
Rationality
dynamic
complexity
real world
performance

9. UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES
Reactive short-term
actions may trigger
side effects that result
in undesired, and
sometimes long-term
irreversible
consequences.

10. How to overcome
human cognitive
limitations?

11. System
Dynamics
Methodology
"People cannot simulate mentally even the
simplest possible feedback system, the first-order
linear positive feedback.
System dynamics is a perspective and set of
conceptual tools that enable us to understand the
structure and dynamics of complex systems.”
John Sterman
Professor at MIT

12. Your Title Here
Four equivalent representations
containing the same information
System structures represented by (a) causal
loop diagrams and (b) a stock and flow

13. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS:
A COUNTER-GUERRILLA EXAMPLE

14. Insurgents
300
225
150
75
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (Week)
Insurgents : Only Supression

15. Insurgents
300
225
150
75
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (Week)
Insurgents : Rule Justly
Insurgents : Only Supression

16. Insurgents
300
225
150
75
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (Week)
Insurgents : Intelligence
Insurgents : Rule Justly
Insurgents : Only Supression

17. 17
CONCLUSIONS

18. Thank You

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