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Hotel Investor
Sentiment Survey
Buy, build, hold, sell?
Issue 17, December 2008
Contributors
Arthur de Haast
Global CEO

Arthur Adler
CEO, Americas

Mark Wynne-Smith
CEO, EMEA

David Gibson
CEO, Asia Pacific

Katleen van den Brande
Vice President Research, EMEA
katleen.vandenbrande@eu.jll.com

Karen Wales
Vice President Research, Asia Pacific
karen.wales@ap.jll.com

Lauro Ferroni
Research Analyst, Americas
lauro.ferroni@am.jll.com




Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, the first and leading global hotel investment services firm, is uniquely positioned to provide both the depth and
breadth of advice required by hotel investors and hotel companies, through a robust and integrated local network. In 2007, Jones Lang
LaSalle Hotels provided sale and purchase advice on 259 hotel transactions globally; representing a combined value of US$13.9 billion, a
total of 54,763 hotel rooms in 84 cities. In addition advisory and valuation services were provided on 660 assignments globally for 182,048
rooms across more than 300 cities. The global team comprises more than 270 hotel specialists, operating from 31 offices in 18 countries.
The firm’s advice is supported by a dedicated global research team, which produced over 45 publications in 2007 in addition to client
research. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ services span the hospitality spectrum; from luxury single assets and large portfolios to select service
and budget hotels, resorts and pubs. Their services include investment sales, mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, valuation and
appraisal, asset management, strategic planning, operator selection, management contract negotiation, consulting, industry research and
project development services. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ clients have access to the resources of its parent company, Jones Lang LaSalle
(NYSE: JLL). www.joneslanglasallehotels.com
Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 1




Global overview
                                                                                                                                                                                Trading sentiment recorded the sharpest decline in Asia Pacific as
Deteriorating economic fundamentals and liquidity restrictions have
                                                                                                                                                                                investors re-evaluated expectations in light of recent events and
caused investor sentiment to plummet as the softening, which
                                                                                                                                                                                softening regional economic growth forecasts. In our June 2008
became apparent in our last two surveys, was compounded by
                                                                                                                                                                                survey investors expected the region to remain relatively protected
significant volatility in the financial markets and banking collapses
                                                                                                                                                                                with short term sentiment still positive, however trading is now
occurring throughout September and October. Current sentiment
                                                                                                                                                                                expected to decline in line with the other two regions albeit to a
may therefore have overshot, though few commentators are calling
                                                                                                                                                                                lesser extent.
the bottom of the market yet. Notwithstanding, our latest survey
reaffirms that the alignment of operating and transaction cycles
witnessed over the last few years, as well as the globalisation of                                                                                                              Global trading performance expectations^
debt and equity capital flows, has magnified the impact of the current
                                                                                                                                                                                         Global
crisis and diminished the importance of geographic diversification
                                                                                                                                                                                Major Gateways
with current sentiment for all three regions now largely aligned.
                                                                                                                                                                                      Americas
                                                                                                                                                                                         EMEA
Against a backdrop of uncertainty, the majority of investors signalled                                                                                                             Asia Pacific
their intention to hold assets. The effective shutdown of securitisation
                                                                                                                                                                                             -50%     -40%     -30%    -20%     -10%      0%      10%      20%     30%
markets has lowered the leverage available to fund transactions and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Net balance
called into question asset pricing, disconnecting buyers and sellers.                                                                                                                                         Short term                    Medium term
With only a limited number of transactions occurring in most markets
                                                                                                                                                                                ^Weighted by number of responses
throughout 2008, it has also become increasingly difficult to call                                                                                                              Major gateways include Barcelona, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, Milan,
                                                                                                                                                                                Mumbai, Munich, Moscow, New York, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, San Francisco, Shanghai,
exactly what level pricing has reached. Investor sentiment points to
                                                                                                                                                                                Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Washington, D.C. and Vancouver
a continuation of the softening trend, which has become apparent for                                                                                                            Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
initial yields over the last 18 months, indicating that capital values
will come under pressure throughout 2009.
                                                                                                                                                                                Short term expectations are most bearish for the Americas with
                                                                                                                                                                                sentiment trending downwards over the last four surveys and being
Trading performance expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                negative for the last two. While declining sharply compared to June
Expectations for short and medium term trading have declined                                                                                                                    2008, medium term sentiment is still positive overall, suggesting that
significantly to both be at the lowest level since we began the survey                                                                                                          investors believe that the U.S. economy is already some way along
in 2000. Sentiment for short term trading is negative for all of the 87                                                                                                         any protracted downturn. However it is also possible that in the
markets we track. This is more pronounced than in 2001 when                                                                                                                     absence of any clear medium term signals, this sentiment reflects
investors expected 85% of the 60 markets tracked to decline. While                                                                                                              more hope than expectation.
to some extent reflecting the current uncertainty, the deterioration
also reflects a world that is slowing from record economic growth
with softer trading coming off an extended high in many markets.


Global trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^

              60%

              40%
Net balance




              20%

               0%

              -20%

              -40%

              -60%
                     Sep-00
                              Dec-00
                                       Jun-01
                                                Dec-01
                                                         Jun-02
                                                                  Dec-02
                                                                           Oct-03
                                                                                    Apr-04
                                                                                             Oct-04
                                                                                                      Apr-05
                                                                                                               Oct-05
                                                                                                                        Jun-06
                                                                                                                                 Nov-06
                                                                                                                                          Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                   Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                            Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-08




                                                                  Short term                                      Medium term

^Weighted by number of responses
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
2 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008




In December 2001, medium term sentiment signalled a return to                 Investment yield requirements
growth across all three regions with weighted averages ranging from
                                                                                                                         Leveraged                                Cap rate                           Short term cap
46.2% in the Americas to 35.8% in Asia Pacific. In our most recent
                                                                                                                        IRR for new                           (initial yield) for                    rate trend (over
survey, medium term sentiment is less than 10% for all three regions                                                    acquisition^                         new acquisition^                       next six months)*
and most positive in Asia Pacific and to a lesser extent in the Americas.                                                    20.1%
                                                                              Americas                                                                                  9.2%                                 Higher
                                                                                                                             17.3%                                                                           Higher
                                                                              EMEA                                                                                      8.0%
Analysis of the individual markets indicates significant variability with                                                    19.1%                                                                           Higher
                                                                              Asia Pacific                                                                              9.1%
short term expectations ranging from -53.6% in Beijing to -5.1% in                                                           19.0%
                                                                              Global                                                                                    8.7%                                 Higher
Dubai. Other markets which are expected to remain relatively
                                                                              ^Weighted by number of responses
protected include Moscow, Washington, D.C., New Delhi and Mumbai              *Net balance
                                                                              IRR = Internal rate of return
although we note that the survey predates the recent terrorist attacks
                                                                              Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
in Mumbai.

                                                                              Conversely, global initial yields recorded the most significant
Sentiment across the major international gateways is also less
                                                                              retraction since the survey’s inception in 2000, ranging from 90 basis
bearish for the short term and markedly more positive for the
                                                                              points in Asia Pacific to 60 basis points in Americas and EMEA.
medium term indicating that these global cities are expected to be
                                                                              Having declined by 40 basis points in June 2008, continuation of the
the primary drivers of economic recovery. Sentiment is strongest for
                                                                              downward trend indicates further negative pressure on capital values
Moscow (44.9%), Washington, D.C. (42.5%), Mumbai (37.5%), New
                                                                              throughout 2009. Return expectations are highest for the Americas
York (35.4%), San Francisco (34.3%) and Shanghai (34.0%).
                                                                              and Asia Pacific at 9.2% and 9.1% respectively, significantly higher
                                                                              than 8.0% in EMEA. However a lack of transactions across
Investment yield requirements
                                                                              sufficient locations and/or properties means that it is extremely
Continuing the softening trend from earlier in 2008, investor
                                                                              difficult to quantify current pricing levels.
expectations for leveraged IRRs and initial yields both retracted by
60 basis points in October 2008 reflective of the weaker short term
                                                                              Global investment yield requirements 2000 - 2008^
trading outlook and global economic uncertainty.

Expectations for initial yields have increased to their highest level
                                                                              25%
since October 2005 whereas leveraged IRRs have fallen to a greater
extent, with current expectations similar to those in 2002. However           20%
at that time investors were gauging the impact of September 11
                                                                              15%
which had a dramatic and immediate impact on global travel
markets. The current slowdown has built over many months with the             10%
progressive and unprecedented failure of the credit system, making
                                                                               5%
comparisons to 2002 difficult as the trading impact is developing
                                                                                    Dec-00
                                                                                             Jun-01
                                                                                                      Dec-01
                                                                                                               Jun-02
                                                                                                                         Dec-02
                                                                                                                                  Oct-03
                                                                                                                                           Apr-04
                                                                                                                                                    Oct-04
                                                                                                                                                               Apr-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-08
                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-05
                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-08




more slowly. Though activity statistics do not yet fully reflect the
prevailing downturn in consumer sentiment, coordinated government
                                                                                                                                    IRR                                 Yield (cap rate)
initiatives to moderate the impact of recession clearly signal the
                                                                              ^Weighted by number of responses
anticipated economic climate.
                                                                              Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels


With each region having recorded a marked retraction in leveraged
IRR expectations in June 2008, shifts in sentiment were less
pronounced in this survey. Expectations are lowest for EMEA at
17.3% compared to 19.1% in Asia Pacific and 20.1% in the Americas.
Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 3




Our survey indicates that initial yields peaked slightly earlier in the                                                                                                               Having spiked upwards in June 2008, buy sentiment declined from
Americas than in the other two regions and the retraction is therefore                                                                                                                40.5% to 33.2% - well below the long term average of 38.4%. With
more pronounced. Cap rates in the Americas are now 150 basis                                                                                                                          sell sentiment increasing to 12.0%, the ratio of buyers to sellers
points higher than their peak compared to 100 basis points in Asia                                                                                                                    decreased to just below 3:1. Sentiment is strongest for the Americas
Pacific and EMEA. Investors expect cap rates to continue to trend                                                                                                                     at almost 4:1 with buyers outweighing sellers in key gateways such
upwards over the next six months as generally softer yields are                                                                                                                       as San Francisco by 37:1, Washington, D.C. by 17:1, Boston by 15:1
compounded by a subdued trading environment. Further retractions                                                                                                                      and New York by 14:1. Sentiment in EMEA and Asia Pacific is softer
are expected in 85 out of the 87 markets tracked, the exceptions                                                                                                                      by comparison with the most competitive markets including Rome
being Fiji and Auckland.                                                                                                                                                              and Singapore with nine buyers to every seller, and seven in
                                                                                                                                                                                      Amsterdam, Milan and Shanghai.
Investment intentions
While all regions recorded a notable change in sentiment, the                                                                                                                         Hot global hotel markets
majority of investors favour a hold strategy in Asia Pacific and the
Americas and a buy strategy in EMEA. Hold sentiment has                                                                                                                                                                            Hold
                                                                                                                                                                                           Buy                  Build                             Sell
skyrocketed to the highest level since December 2002 and marks                                                                                                                                                                     Philadelphia
                                                                                                                                                                                       1   Rome                 New Delhi                         Spanish Resorts
the dominant global investment strategy, having jumped 11.0                                                                                                                                                                        Tampa
                                                                                                                                                                                       2   Amsterdam            Mumbai                            Dubai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Montreal
                                                                                                                                                                                       3   Munich               Hangzhou                          Orlando
percentage points to 42.9% since June 2008. Current sentiment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Chicago
                                                                                                                                                                                       4   Bali                 Los Cabos                         Jakarta
reflects the widely held belief that the market will not support pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Atlanta
                                                                                                                                                                                       5   London               Bangalore                         Budapest
expectations as well as the difficulty in closing large transactions in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Hawaii
                                                                                                                                                                                       6   Madrid               Rio de Janeiro                    Chendgu
the current economic environment compounded by significantly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Denver
                                                                                                                                                                                       7   San Francisco        Ho Chi Minh City                  Hangzhou
contracted credit markets. Until pricing expectations moderate or
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Macao
                                                                                                                                                                                       8   Boston               Guangzhou                         Lisbon
hotel values decline, transaction markets will remain subdued even if
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Auckland
                                                                                                                                                                                       9   Paris                Moscow                            Guangzhou
liquidity is restored to the credit markets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Santiago       Dublin
                                                                                                                                                                                      10 Milan                  Phuket

                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Global short term investment intentions 2000 - 2008^


                   60%
% of respondents




                   40%

                   20%

                   0%
                         Sep-00
                                  Dec-00
                                           Jun-01
                                                    Dec-01
                                                             Jun-02
                                                                      Dec-02
                                                                               Oct-03
                                                                                        Apr-04
                                                                                                 Oct-04
                                                                                                          Apr-05
                                                                                                                   Oct-05
                                                                                                                             Jun-06
                                                                                                                                      Nov-06
                                                                                                                                               Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                        Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-08




                                              Buy                                 Build                                     Hold                                 Sell

^Weighted by number of responses
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
4 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008




Short term investment intentions^                                             In terms of short term asset class preferences, investors continue to
                                                                              hold upscale assets in the highest regard. Sentiment is strongest in
    Global                                                                    the Americas with 47.9% of investors favouring this class. This
                                                                              compares to 32.4% in EMEA and 22.9% in Asia Pacific. Upscale
 Americas
                                                                              branded assets with established cash flows are more likely to attract
                                                                              acquisition financing in the current debt environment. Across the
     EMEA
                                                                              regions, preference for this type of hotel was strongest in Denver
Asia Pacific                                                                  (57.1%), the Pacific Northwest (56.5%), Boston (51.2%),
                                                                              Copenhagen (40.6%) and Perth (32.7%).
          0%     10%    20% 30%     40% 50% 60% 70%     80% 90% 100%
                                    % of respondents
                                                                              Budget hotels are growing in popularity in EMEA and Asia Pacific
                             Buy     Build       Hold   Sell                  whereas serviced apartments have attracted additional interest in
                                                                              Asia Pacific, reflective of the high proportion of expatriates in many
^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                              markets. Serviced apartments have a higher average length of stay
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
                                                                              and lower risk profile compared to hotels which tend to be more
                                                                              likely to be sold on a nightly basis.
Build sentiment recorded a marked decline down from 17.8% in
June 2008 to 11.8% and is now ranked the least favoured strategy
by global hotel investors with many projects being put on hold in light       Preferred asset type^
of the highly restricted credit environment. The most significant fall in
build sentiment was noted in some of the world’s development hot                   Global
spots including Dubai, Bangalore and Cancun/Riviera Maya. While
                                                                                Americas
boding well for the future stability of the investment market, stalled
projects coupled with subdued profits will significantly impact                    EMEA
operators’ ambitious growth plans.
                                                                              Asia Pacific


                                                                                        0%     10%    20% 30%          40% 50% 60% 70%              80% 90% 100%
                                                                                                                       % of respondents

                                                                                                          All Grades       Luxury         Upscale
                                                                                                          Mid-scale       Budget          Serviced Apts.

                                                                              ^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                              Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 5




Americas
                                                                                 Americas trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^
Worsening economic fundamentals and massively restricted liquidity
have caused investor sentiment to plummet. Hotel investors’ short
term trading performance sentiment for the Americas declined to a                               80%
level just above the low point recorded in our survey conducted in                              60%
December 2001. While still slightly positive, the medium term trading
                                                                                                40%




                                                                                  Net balance
sentiment has softened considerably since our last survey. Across
                                                                                                20%
the major markets surveyed in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the
                                                                                                 0%
Caribbean and South America, investors have increased their IRR
and cap rate requirements.                                                                      -20%

                                                                                                -40%
The shutdown of the securitization market and the general
                                                                                                -60%
retrenchment of more traditional lenders have lowered the leverage




                                                                                                       Sep-00
                                                                                                                Dec-00
                                                                                                                         Jun-01
                                                                                                                                  Dec-01
                                                                                                                                           Jun-02
                                                                                                                                                    Dec-02
                                                                                                                                                             Oct-03
                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-04
                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-04
                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-05
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-05
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-08
available to fund transactions, making the pricing of assets
increasingly difficult and disconnecting buyers and sellers. The asset
                                                                                                                                                    Short term                                      Medium term
hold strategy is at a seven-year high, with the sentiment to buy
                                                                                 ^Weighted by number of responses
having declined over the last three surveys. The disconnect between              Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
buyers and sellers is further evidenced by the lowest number of
investors in three years indicating a dominant sell strategy.
                                                                                 Of the markets surveyed in Canada, investors have the most
                                                                                 pessimistic short and medium term outlook for Montreal (-50.0% and
Economic strain has weighed down on worldwide property markets
                                                                                 -10.9%, respectively) and the most positive medium range trading
and volatility in the financial markets persists. To stabilize the financial
                                                                                 outlook for Vancouver (15.4%). While economic growth has slowed in
system, governments are initiating plans to bolster greater credit
                                                                                 Canada, domestic demand from sectors such as mining has held up.
market liquidity to make capital available from the banking industry.
This may provide the credit needed to refinance existing debt and to
                                                                                 Mexico’s outlook for the medium term exceeds the Americas
fuel transactions. It will not, however, replace the massive amounts
                                                                                 average, bolstered by Mexico’s emerging middle class, which is
of capital that was provided by the securitization market.
                                                                                 leading to increased intra-Mexico travel. Albeit marking a large
                                                                                 decline from six months ago, investors are most upbeat on the
Trading performance expectations
                                                                                 medium term outlook for Los Cabos (18.8%).
Across the Americas, the net balance of investors’ short term (six
months) trading performance expectations dropped further negative
                                                                                 The trading performance sentiment for the Caribbean marked one of
to -47.8%. While signifying a considerable fall, the Americas short
                                                                                 the region’s largest declines for both the short term and medium
term sentiment is less negative than it was in the months following
                                                                                 term with airline capacity reductions and discretionary travel coming
9/11. The medium term (two years) positive performance sentiment
                                                                                 under pressure. Investors’ returns in the Caribbean have been
decreased to 1.8%, further amplifying the downward trend recorded
                                                                                 impacted by high energy costs that, once elevated, are slow to
six months ago. While the short term performance outlook dipped
                                                                                 decrease again. The Dominican Republic benefits from relatively
negative for all Americas markets surveyed, the net balance of
                                                                                 higher operating efficiencies and is expected to fare better. Markets
investor sentiment for the medium term is positive for 48% of the
                                                                                 with more diversified economies, such as Trinidad and Tobago with
markets surveyed, including most international gateway markets.
                                                                                 an oil and natural gas-based economy, Grand Cayman, due to its
                                                                                 banking centre, and Puerto Rico are also in a stronger position to
In the United States, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, and Houston
                                                                                 weather the downturn.
exhibit the least negative short term sentiment. The medium term
trading performance outlook is most positive for markets with high
barriers to entry such as Washington, D.C. (42.5%), New York
(35.4%) and San Francisco (34.3%). Respondents indicated the
most pessimistic short term trading sentiment for Hawaii, Orlando
and Phoenix, all of which are leisure and group destination resort
markets. Hawaii marked the greatest performance outlook decline of
any U.S. market due to threat of flight consolidation and decreased
discretionary travel.
6 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008




Americas trading performance expectations^                                    Investment yield requirements
                                                                              The record-low leveraged IRR and capitalization rate (yield)
            Atlanta
            Boston
                                                                              environment has shown a clear upward trend across the Americas.
          Chicago
             Dallas                                                           All but two cities notched an increase in leveraged IRR expectations,
           Denver
                                                                              retracing on average by 50 basis points to 20.1%, reflecting the
            Hawaii
          Houston
                                                                              perception of increased risk. Due to the increased weighted average
      Los Angeles
                                                                              cost of capital, investors’ targeted cap rates rose by 60 basis points
             Miami
         New York
                                                                              since the last survey, reaching 9.2%. U.S. markets continue to
           Orlando
 Pacific Northwest                                                            record the lowest cap rates in the Americas, followed by Canada,
      Philadelphia
                                                                              Mexico, the Caribbean and South America.
          Phoenix
        San Diego
   San Francisco
            Tampa                                                 In the United States, the lowest IRR expectations were reported for
Washington, D.C.
                                                                  gateway cities with more diversified demand and higher barriers to
          Montreal
           Toronto
                                                                  entry, such as New York (18.0%), Boston (18.5%) and San
        Vancouver
                                                                  Francisco (18.8%). Owed to their relatively strong demand
    Buenos Aires
        Caribbean
                                                                  fundamentals, the leveraged IRR increase for these three cities was
   Rio de Janeiro
        Sao Paulo
                                                                  below the Americas average. U.S. cities with the highest IRR
          Santiago
                                                                  expectations were Tampa (20.9%), Phoenix (20.9%) and Orlando
Cancun/Riv. Maya
        Los Cabos
                                                                  (20.8%), all marking an IRR increase of 130 basis points or more
       Mexico City
                                                                  from the last survey. Hawaii has traditionally exhibited low IRR
                -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
                                                                  requirements but marked a 120 basis points increase to 19.4% due
                                        Net balance
                                                                  to weakened demand outlook.
                                    Short term   Medium term

^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                              Americas investment yield requirements 2000 - 2008^
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels



The medium range performance outlook for South America exceeds
                                                                              25%
the Americas average. Faced with slowing or declining RevPAR
growth in the U.S., investors and hotel companies are looking to              20%
South America to invest and to expand their brands. Brazil is
                                                                              15%
bolstered by strong domestic demand that has maintained positive
growth, although currency pressures are increasing. Having                    10%
achieved investment grade, Brazil is currently a hot investment
                                                                               5%
market with substantial development opportunities for branded
                                                                                    Dec-00
                                                                                             Jun-01
                                                                                                      Dec-01
                                                                                                               Jun-02
                                                                                                                        Dec-02
                                                                                                                                 Oct-03
                                                                                                                                          Apr-04
                                                                                                                                                   Oct-04
                                                                                                                                                            Apr-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-08
                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-05
                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-08




hotels, particularly in the mid-market. Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo
exhibited South America’s strongest medium term performance
                                                                                                          Americas IRR                                               Americas yield (cap rate)
outlook, at 11.1% and 8.8%, respectively. As investments in Brazil
                                                                                                          U.S./Canada IRR                                            U.S./Canada yield (cap rate)
have traditionally been structured with much lower leverage levels,                                       Mexico/Caribbean/                                          Mexico/Caribbean/South
these investments are less impacted by the current illiquidity.                                           South America IRR                                          America yield (cap rate)

                                                                              ^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                              Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 7




In U.S. cities, expected cap rates retraced on average by 70 basis           Americas investment yield requirements
points, having already increased by 60 basis points in the previous
                                                                                                        Average leveraged   Average cap rate Short term cap
survey. While cap rates rose in all markets, they remain lowest in
                                                                                                           IRR for new                           rate trend (over
                                                                                                                             (initial yield) for
New York (8.0%) and San Francisco (8.4%), both cities having                                               acquisition^     new acquisition^ next six months)*
maintained considerable RevPAR growth momentum during the first                                             20.4% (+)
                                                                              Atlanta                                           9.6% (+)             Higher
three quarters of 2008. Faced with concerns over declining NOI,                                             18.5% (+)
                                                                              Boston                                            8.5% (+)             Higher
investors active in Orlando, Tampa and Phoenix have the highest                                              19.2% (-)
                                                                              Chicago                                           8.7% (+)             Higher
cap rate expectations for these markets. The most pronounced cap                                            20.7% (+)
                                                                              Dallas                                            9.4% (+)             Higher
rate increase in the U.S. since the last survey was indicated for             Denver                                            9.4% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.3% (+)
Hawaii. Upward pressure on cap rates is expected to persist until             Hawaii                                            9.1% (+)
                                                                                                            19.4% (+)                                Higher
credit markets become more liquid and industry fundamentals begin             Houston                                           9.4% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.4% (+)
to stabilize.                                                                 Los Angeles                                       8.6% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            19.1% (+)
                                                                              Miami                                             9.4% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            19.7% (+)
                                                                              New York                                          8.0% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            18.0% (+)
Investors also raised their IRR requirements for Canadian markets.
                                                                              Orlando                                           9.7% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.8% (+)
The economic development led by the 2010 Winter Olympics has
                                                                              Pacific Northwest                                 9.3% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.0% (+)
investors most buoyant on Vancouver, which exhibited the lowest
                                                                              Philadelphia                                      9.3% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.4% (+)
leveraged IRR and cap rate expectations in Canada. Average
                                                                              Phoenix                                           9.6% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.9% (+)
expected cap rates for Toronto increased by 40 basis points,
                                                                              San Diego                                         8.9% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.0% (+)
reaching 9.4%. Montreal has experienced declining room demand
                                                                              San Francisco                                     8.4% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            18.8% (+)
thus far in 2008 and exhibits the highest IRRs of the three Canadian
                                                                              Tampa                                             9.7% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            20.9% (+)
markets surveyed.
                                                                              Washington, D.C.                                  8.5% (+)             Higher
                                                                                                            18.9% (+)
                                                                              Montreal                                                               Higher
                                                                                                            21.0% (+)           9.8% (+)
In Mexico, investors continue to have the lowest cap rate
                                                                              Toronto                                                                Higher
                                                                                                            21.3% (+)           9.4% (+)
expectations for Los Cabos. Leveraged IRR requirements have risen
                                                                              Vancouver                                                              Higher
                                                                                                            20.2% (+)           9.0% (+)
across all Mexican markets surveyed. The weak second home
                                                                              Buenos Aires                                                           Higher
                                                                                                            23.3% (+)          11.4% (+)
market will affect the viability of mixed-use resort developments in
                                                                              Caribbean                                                              Higher
                                                                                                            22.9% (+)          10.7% (+)
Mexico. The risk of investing in the Caribbean increased
                                                                              Rio de Janeiro                                                         Higher
                                                                                                            23.3% (+)          11.1% (+)
substantially over the past year due to soaring energy costs and the
                                                                              Sao Paulo                                                              Higher
                                                                                                             24.0% (-)         11.4% (+)
decline in the number of U.S. travellers to the region, reflected by          Santiago                                                               Higher
                                                                                                            23.6% (+)          11.6% (+)
rising IRRs. In the Caribbean, surveyed cap rates rose by 50 basis            Cancun/Riviera Maya                                                    Higher
                                                                                                            23.5% (+)           9.8% (+)
points from six months ago, reaching 10.7%.                                   Los Cabos                                                              Higher
                                                                                                            25.5% (+)           9.4% (+)
                                                                              Mexico City                                                            Higher
                                                                                                            25.5% (+)          10.7% (+)
South American markets saw the most moderate increases in                     Americas average                                                       Higher
                                                                                                            20.1% (+)           9.2% (+)
leveraged IRR requirements, up on average 20 basis points, with               U.S./Canada                                                            Higher
                                                                                                            19.8% (+)           9.1% (+)
São Paulo IRRs actually recording a decrease. The negligible IRR              Mexico/Caribbean/
                                                                                                                                                     Higher
                                                                                                            23.3% (+)          10.4% (+)
                                                                              South America
increase for Rio de Janeiro is reflective of investors’ relative
perception of stable or declining investment risk in Brazil. Among the
                                                                             ^Weighted by number of responses
South American markets, investors indicated the lowest cap rate              *Net balance
                                                                             IRR = Internal rate of return
expectations for Rio de Janeiro (11.1%). Yields in South America
                                                                             Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
and in particular in Brazil are expected to stabilize or decrease in the
medium to long term as the real estate market benefits from
increased transparency and more stable interest rates.
8 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008




Investment intentions                                                                                                                                                               Markets attracting the most attention for acquisitions are San
                                                                                                                                                                                    Francisco (46.8%) and Boston (46.2%). While hotel transaction
The hold sentiment jumped 13.0 percentage points to 51.1% since
                                                                                                                                                                                    volumes in these markets are down compared to 2007, investors
the last survey and is at its highest level since December 2001. The
                                                                                                                                                                                    remain interested in top international markets. Investors also rank
dominating hold sentiment is both a reflection that many owners
                                                                                                                                                                                    the Pacific Northwest (44.9%) and Washington, D.C. (43.4%) as
believe the market will not support their pricing expectations, and of
                                                                                                                                                                                    strong buy markets. U.S. markets with low buyer interest include
the difficulty in closing substantial hotel transactions. The buy
                                                                                                                                                                                    Orlando and Tampa. In Canada, Vancouver is by far the strongest
sentiment declined to 32.3%, reaching its second lowest point since
                                                                                                                                                                                    buy market (38.5%), boosted in part by the upcoming Winter
our survey’s inception.
                                                                                                                                                                                    Olympic Games. For markets in Mexico and South America, the buy
                                                                                                                                                                                    sentiment is below the Americas average, reflective of the fact that
Spurred by the dearth of construction financing and weakening
                                                                                                                                                                                    these markets have limited product available for acquisition, and
fundamentals, the build sentiment decreased for the third
                                                                                                                                                                                    hence shows a higher build sentiment.
consecutive survey, narrowing to 7.9%. The decreased build
sentiment represents a silver lining in the credit crisis. The fact that
                                                                                                                                                                                    Across the Americas, a mere 8.6% of investors indicated ‘sell’ as
new supply will be choked-off will result in a more robust and
                                                                                                                                                                                    their overlying investment strategy. In the U.S., the sell sentiment is
sustainable recovery once demand growth resumes. The sell
                                                                                                                                                                                    highest in Orlando (27.7%), followed by Tampa (20.0%) and Dallas
sentiment (8.6%) decreased by a third, again evidencing that
                                                                                                                                                                                    (19.6%). Toronto leads the Canadian cities’ sell sentiment at 12.5%.
investors are reluctant to set the benchmark of a sale at a lower
                                                                                                                                                                                    Investors across Mexico, the Caribbean and South America all
transaction price.
                                                                                                                                                                                    exhibit a low sell sentiment. In the Caribbean, very few hotel
                                                                                                                                                                                    transactions are anticipated in the near term unless driven by the
Americas short term investment intentions 2000 - 2008^
                                                                                                                                                                                    pressure to refinance existing debt.

                                                                                                                                                                                    Respondents’ inclination to build recorded the lowest proportion of
                   60%
% of respondents




                                                                                                                                                                                    responses (7.9%) of the four investment intentions in the survey. The
                   40%
                                                                                                                                                                                    build sentiment is markedly more elevated in markets outside of the
                                                                                                                                                                                    U.S. Unlike markets in the U.S. where demand projections
                   20%
                                                                                                                                                                                    overwhelmingly do not justify new supply, South American markets
                   0%                                                                                                                                                               saw an increase in the proportion of investors seeking to build.
                         Sep-00
                                  Dec-00
                                           Jun-01
                                                    Dec-01
                                                             Jun-02
                                                                      Dec-02
                                                                               Oct-03
                                                                                        Apr-04
                                                                                                 Oct-04
                                                                                                          Apr-05
                                                                                                                   Oct-05
                                                                                                                             Jun-06
                                                                                                                                      Nov-06
                                                                                                                                               Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                        Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-08




                                                                                                                                                                                    Investors active in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Buenos Aires and
                                                                                                                                                                                    Santiago all indicated equal or higher interest in building new supply
                                              Buy                                 Build                                     Hold                                 Sell               than acquiring existing assets. The build sentiment in the Caribbean
                                                                                                                                                                                    trailed off, and the good news for existing supply is that a number of
^Weighted by number of responses
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
                                                                                                                                                                                    projects in early planning stages will not come to fruition.

Investors indicated a dominant hold strategy in all but two Americas
markets. In the U.S., Philadelphia and Tampa depict the highest hold
sentiment, each at 62.5%. Markets where the increase in hold
sentiment was most pronounced include Hawaii, New York and
Phoenix. In Canada, Montreal exhibits the highest hold sentiment
(60.9%). Over 40% of investors intend to hold their assets in Mexico,
with the hold sentiment in South America being at a comparable level.
Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 9




Americas short term investment intentions^                                   Investors’ interest in luxury assets in the Americas remained
                                                                             unchanged from the last survey, with 27.5% of investors targeting
            Atlanta
                                                                             this asset type. In the U.S., luxury assets are most in demand in
            Boston
          Chicago
                                                                             Hawaii (36.7%), Miami (30.3%) and New York (29.7%). Owed to a
             Dallas
           Denver                                                            scarcity of luxury product in Montreal, 37.9% of investors active in
            Hawaii
                                                                             Canada are targeting assets in this segment. Forty per cent of
          Houston
      Los Angeles
                                                                             investors active in Brazil are shopping luxury assets in Rio de
             Miami
                                                                             Janeiro and São Paulo.
         New York
           Orlando
 Pacific Northwest
      Philadelphia
                                                                             Across the Americas, the number of investors targeting investment in
          Phoenix
                                                                             mid-scale assets declined marginally to 13.2%. Of the markets
        San Diego
   San Francisco
                                                                             surveyed, interest in mid-scale assets is highest in San Diego
            Tampa
Washington, D.C.                                                             (19.2%), Los Angeles (19.1%) and Atlanta (19.0%). Investors
          Montreal
                                                                             indicated the highest interest for budget assets in São Paulo
           Toronto
        Vancouver
                                                                             (10.0%), reflective of the vast opportunities to develop the
    Buenos Aires
        Caribbean                                                            underserved branded budget hotel sector in Brazil.
   Rio de Janeiro
        Sao Paulo
          Santiago
                                                                             Americas preferred asset type^
Cancun/Riv. Maya
        Los Cabos
       Mexico City
                                                                                         Atlanta
                 0% 10%   20% 30% 40% 50%             60% 70% 80% 90% 100%               Boston
                                                                                       Chicago
                                          % of respondents                                Dallas
                                                                                        Denver
                                    Buy     Build    Hold    Sell                        Hawaii
                                                                                       Houston
                                                                                   Los Angeles
^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                                          Miami
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
                                                                                      New York
                                                                                        Orlando
                                                                              Pacific Northwest
Across the Americas, investors indicated upscale properties as their               Philadelphia
                                                                                       Phoenix
preferred asset type, with 47.9% intending to invest in upscale                      San Diego
assets, up 8.4 percentage points from the previous survey. Upscale              San Francisco
                                                                                         Tampa
branded assets with healthy in-place cash flows are more likely to           Washington, D.C.
                                                                                       Montreal
attract acquisition financing in the current debt environment. In the
                                                                                        Toronto
U.S., upscale assets are most sought after in Denver (57.1%) and                     Vancouver
                                                                                 Buenos Aires
the Pacific Northwest (56.5%). In Canada, the proportion of investors                Caribbean
                                                                                Rio de Janeiro
seeking upscale assets is highest in Toronto (48.5%). Investors
                                                                                     Sao Paulo
active in South America indicated the highest sentiment for upscale                    Santiago
                                                                             Cancun/Riv. Maya
investment in Rio de Janeiro (40.0%).                                                Los Cabos
                                                                                    Mexico City

                                                                                              0%   10% 20% 30% 40% 50%           60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
                                                                                                                     % of respondents

                                                                                                        All grades      Luxury          Upscale
                                                                                                        Mid-scale       Budget          Serviced Apts.

                                                                             ^Weighted by number of responses
                                                                             Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
10 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008




EMEA
Whereas investors’ expectations remained positive in the first half of                                                                                                        The most negative outlook was recorded for the UK, in particular for
this year, the events of Q3 have left no doubt as to the seriousness                                                                                                          provincial cities such as Manchester and Birmingham. These cities
of the current financial crisis and its likely impact on the hotel                                                                                                            are highly dependent on domestic demand which is forecast to drop
industry. It appears that although not a single event, the combination                                                                                                        rapidly in the coming year. The UK is not only suffering from the
of events is now being recognised as a demand shock. Buy                                                                                                                      global conditions, but in addition has a pool of highly indebted
sentiments decreased substantially, whilst investors reported                                                                                                                 residents, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet, with
increased preferences to hold or sell assets. Nevertheless, buy                                                                                                               higher unemployment and rapidly falling house prices.
intentions prevailed across the region.
                                                                                                                                                                              The greatest fall in expectations occurred in CEE which in the first half
                                                                                                                                                                              of the year was still perceived as offering strong income growth
The EMEA hotel market’s trading performance is likely to be heading
                                                                                                                                                                              potential. Although it could be argued that this is still the case relative
for tough times, at least in the short term, a sentiment which was
                                                                                                                                                                              to some other markets, investors are clearly expecting a significant
reported consistently across all markets. Investors reported greater
                                                                                                                                                                              impact on trading performance from the global environment. Various
IRR and yield requirements, which expanded by 80 and 60 basis
                                                                                                                                                                              countries in the east have high levels of government debt, limiting
points respectively with some very wide ranges of opinion. As
                                                                                                                                                                              the funds available to support their financial markets.
uncertainty about the current economic market conditions remains,
investors’ confidence seemingly remains weak with yield
                                                                                                                                                                              Investors have suggested that Dubai will be the least affected
requirements expected to soften further in the coming months as
                                                                                                                                                                              market in the short term, with short term expectations only
room night demand falls off quickly.
                                                                                                                                                                              marginally negative. However, in contrast to other EMEA cities,
Trading performance expectations                                                                                                                                              medium term expectations are more pessimistic. A lag seems to
                                                                                                                                                                              exist between the impact on the Middle Eastern hotel market and to
The increasing recognition that financial turmoil will continue in some
                                                                                                                                                                              that in Europe. The development boom of recent years in the area is
form, together with worsening global economic conditions have
                                                                                                                                                                              highly likely to affect the real estate market in the medium to long
started to impose substantial pressure on trading performance
                                                                                                                                                                              term and the first signs of a downturn in residential property values
expectations. Both short term and medium term expectations turned
                                                                                                                                                                              have already become apparent which may impact the pace of future
negative across the region, with investors adopting a very dismal
                                                                                                                                                                              development projects.
outlook for the coming six months. Expectations in the medium term
were only marginally negative but interestingly the fall was the
                                                                                                                                                                              The survey suggests that Germany will be one of the best positioned
largest that we have experienced over the life of the survey.
                                                                                                                                                                              countries in Europe to weather the storm. Although short term
                                                                                                                                                                              trading expectations are negative, the medium term outlook is more
EMEA trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^
                                                                                                                                                                              optimistic. In particular Munich, Berlin and Hamburg are expected to
                                                                                                                                                                              achieve positive trading performance in the medium term. Munich
              80%                                                                                                                                                             benefits from a wide base of domestic and international visitors as
                                                                                                                                                                              well as strong conference and corporate demand. Although all are
              60%
                                                                                                                                                                              set to be affected in the short term at least, investors seemingly
              40%
Net balance




                                                                                                                                                                              expect a market such as Munich to recover quickly. This sentiment
              20%
                                                                                                                                                                              might have been enhanced by the fact that the market is still
               0%
                                                                                                                                                                              relatively undersupplied at present whilst future developments are
              -20%
                                                                                                                                                                              likely to be delayed or cancelled.
              -40%

              -60%
                     Sep-00
                              Dec-00
                                       Jun-01
                                                Dec-01
                                                         Jun-02
                                                                  Dec-02
                                                                           Oct-03
                                                                                    Apr-04
                                                                                             Oct-04
                                                                                                      Apr-05
                                                                                                               Oct-05
                                                                                                                        Jun-06
                                                                                                                                 Nov-06
                                                                                                                                          Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                   Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                            Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-08




                                                                  Short term                                      Medium term

^Weighted by number of responses
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08
Jll Hotel  Survey Dec 8 08

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Jll Hotel Survey Dec 8 08

  • 1. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey Buy, build, hold, sell? Issue 17, December 2008
  • 2. Contributors Arthur de Haast Global CEO Arthur Adler CEO, Americas Mark Wynne-Smith CEO, EMEA David Gibson CEO, Asia Pacific Katleen van den Brande Vice President Research, EMEA katleen.vandenbrande@eu.jll.com Karen Wales Vice President Research, Asia Pacific karen.wales@ap.jll.com Lauro Ferroni Research Analyst, Americas lauro.ferroni@am.jll.com Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, the first and leading global hotel investment services firm, is uniquely positioned to provide both the depth and breadth of advice required by hotel investors and hotel companies, through a robust and integrated local network. In 2007, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels provided sale and purchase advice on 259 hotel transactions globally; representing a combined value of US$13.9 billion, a total of 54,763 hotel rooms in 84 cities. In addition advisory and valuation services were provided on 660 assignments globally for 182,048 rooms across more than 300 cities. The global team comprises more than 270 hotel specialists, operating from 31 offices in 18 countries. The firm’s advice is supported by a dedicated global research team, which produced over 45 publications in 2007 in addition to client research. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ services span the hospitality spectrum; from luxury single assets and large portfolios to select service and budget hotels, resorts and pubs. Their services include investment sales, mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, valuation and appraisal, asset management, strategic planning, operator selection, management contract negotiation, consulting, industry research and project development services. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ clients have access to the resources of its parent company, Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL). www.joneslanglasallehotels.com
  • 3. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 1 Global overview Trading sentiment recorded the sharpest decline in Asia Pacific as Deteriorating economic fundamentals and liquidity restrictions have investors re-evaluated expectations in light of recent events and caused investor sentiment to plummet as the softening, which softening regional economic growth forecasts. In our June 2008 became apparent in our last two surveys, was compounded by survey investors expected the region to remain relatively protected significant volatility in the financial markets and banking collapses with short term sentiment still positive, however trading is now occurring throughout September and October. Current sentiment expected to decline in line with the other two regions albeit to a may therefore have overshot, though few commentators are calling lesser extent. the bottom of the market yet. Notwithstanding, our latest survey reaffirms that the alignment of operating and transaction cycles witnessed over the last few years, as well as the globalisation of Global trading performance expectations^ debt and equity capital flows, has magnified the impact of the current Global crisis and diminished the importance of geographic diversification Major Gateways with current sentiment for all three regions now largely aligned. Americas EMEA Against a backdrop of uncertainty, the majority of investors signalled Asia Pacific their intention to hold assets. The effective shutdown of securitisation -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% markets has lowered the leverage available to fund transactions and Net balance called into question asset pricing, disconnecting buyers and sellers. Short term Medium term With only a limited number of transactions occurring in most markets ^Weighted by number of responses throughout 2008, it has also become increasingly difficult to call Major gateways include Barcelona, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, Milan, Mumbai, Munich, Moscow, New York, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, San Francisco, Shanghai, exactly what level pricing has reached. Investor sentiment points to Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Washington, D.C. and Vancouver a continuation of the softening trend, which has become apparent for Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels initial yields over the last 18 months, indicating that capital values will come under pressure throughout 2009. Short term expectations are most bearish for the Americas with sentiment trending downwards over the last four surveys and being Trading performance expectations negative for the last two. While declining sharply compared to June Expectations for short and medium term trading have declined 2008, medium term sentiment is still positive overall, suggesting that significantly to both be at the lowest level since we began the survey investors believe that the U.S. economy is already some way along in 2000. Sentiment for short term trading is negative for all of the 87 any protracted downturn. However it is also possible that in the markets we track. This is more pronounced than in 2001 when absence of any clear medium term signals, this sentiment reflects investors expected 85% of the 60 markets tracked to decline. While more hope than expectation. to some extent reflecting the current uncertainty, the deterioration also reflects a world that is slowing from record economic growth with softer trading coming off an extended high in many markets. Global trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^ 60% 40% Net balance 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Sep-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 Short term Medium term ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
  • 4. 2 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 In December 2001, medium term sentiment signalled a return to Investment yield requirements growth across all three regions with weighted averages ranging from Leveraged Cap rate Short term cap 46.2% in the Americas to 35.8% in Asia Pacific. In our most recent IRR for new (initial yield) for rate trend (over survey, medium term sentiment is less than 10% for all three regions acquisition^ new acquisition^ next six months)* and most positive in Asia Pacific and to a lesser extent in the Americas. 20.1% Americas 9.2% Higher 17.3% Higher EMEA 8.0% Analysis of the individual markets indicates significant variability with 19.1% Higher Asia Pacific 9.1% short term expectations ranging from -53.6% in Beijing to -5.1% in 19.0% Global 8.7% Higher Dubai. Other markets which are expected to remain relatively ^Weighted by number of responses protected include Moscow, Washington, D.C., New Delhi and Mumbai *Net balance IRR = Internal rate of return although we note that the survey predates the recent terrorist attacks Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels in Mumbai. Conversely, global initial yields recorded the most significant Sentiment across the major international gateways is also less retraction since the survey’s inception in 2000, ranging from 90 basis bearish for the short term and markedly more positive for the points in Asia Pacific to 60 basis points in Americas and EMEA. medium term indicating that these global cities are expected to be Having declined by 40 basis points in June 2008, continuation of the the primary drivers of economic recovery. Sentiment is strongest for downward trend indicates further negative pressure on capital values Moscow (44.9%), Washington, D.C. (42.5%), Mumbai (37.5%), New throughout 2009. Return expectations are highest for the Americas York (35.4%), San Francisco (34.3%) and Shanghai (34.0%). and Asia Pacific at 9.2% and 9.1% respectively, significantly higher than 8.0% in EMEA. However a lack of transactions across Investment yield requirements sufficient locations and/or properties means that it is extremely Continuing the softening trend from earlier in 2008, investor difficult to quantify current pricing levels. expectations for leveraged IRRs and initial yields both retracted by 60 basis points in October 2008 reflective of the weaker short term Global investment yield requirements 2000 - 2008^ trading outlook and global economic uncertainty. Expectations for initial yields have increased to their highest level 25% since October 2005 whereas leveraged IRRs have fallen to a greater extent, with current expectations similar to those in 2002. However 20% at that time investors were gauging the impact of September 11 15% which had a dramatic and immediate impact on global travel markets. The current slowdown has built over many months with the 10% progressive and unprecedented failure of the credit system, making 5% comparisons to 2002 difficult as the trading impact is developing Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-08 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 more slowly. Though activity statistics do not yet fully reflect the prevailing downturn in consumer sentiment, coordinated government IRR Yield (cap rate) initiatives to moderate the impact of recession clearly signal the ^Weighted by number of responses anticipated economic climate. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels With each region having recorded a marked retraction in leveraged IRR expectations in June 2008, shifts in sentiment were less pronounced in this survey. Expectations are lowest for EMEA at 17.3% compared to 19.1% in Asia Pacific and 20.1% in the Americas.
  • 5. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 3 Our survey indicates that initial yields peaked slightly earlier in the Having spiked upwards in June 2008, buy sentiment declined from Americas than in the other two regions and the retraction is therefore 40.5% to 33.2% - well below the long term average of 38.4%. With more pronounced. Cap rates in the Americas are now 150 basis sell sentiment increasing to 12.0%, the ratio of buyers to sellers points higher than their peak compared to 100 basis points in Asia decreased to just below 3:1. Sentiment is strongest for the Americas Pacific and EMEA. Investors expect cap rates to continue to trend at almost 4:1 with buyers outweighing sellers in key gateways such upwards over the next six months as generally softer yields are as San Francisco by 37:1, Washington, D.C. by 17:1, Boston by 15:1 compounded by a subdued trading environment. Further retractions and New York by 14:1. Sentiment in EMEA and Asia Pacific is softer are expected in 85 out of the 87 markets tracked, the exceptions by comparison with the most competitive markets including Rome being Fiji and Auckland. and Singapore with nine buyers to every seller, and seven in Amsterdam, Milan and Shanghai. Investment intentions While all regions recorded a notable change in sentiment, the Hot global hotel markets majority of investors favour a hold strategy in Asia Pacific and the Americas and a buy strategy in EMEA. Hold sentiment has Hold Buy Build Sell skyrocketed to the highest level since December 2002 and marks Philadelphia 1 Rome New Delhi Spanish Resorts the dominant global investment strategy, having jumped 11.0 Tampa 2 Amsterdam Mumbai Dubai Montreal 3 Munich Hangzhou Orlando percentage points to 42.9% since June 2008. Current sentiment Chicago 4 Bali Los Cabos Jakarta reflects the widely held belief that the market will not support pricing Atlanta 5 London Bangalore Budapest expectations as well as the difficulty in closing large transactions in Hawaii 6 Madrid Rio de Janeiro Chendgu the current economic environment compounded by significantly Denver 7 San Francisco Ho Chi Minh City Hangzhou contracted credit markets. Until pricing expectations moderate or Macao 8 Boston Guangzhou Lisbon hotel values decline, transaction markets will remain subdued even if Auckland 9 Paris Moscow Guangzhou liquidity is restored to the credit markets. Santiago Dublin 10 Milan Phuket Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels Global short term investment intentions 2000 - 2008^ 60% % of respondents 40% 20% 0% Sep-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 Buy Build Hold Sell ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
  • 6. 4 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 Short term investment intentions^ In terms of short term asset class preferences, investors continue to hold upscale assets in the highest regard. Sentiment is strongest in Global the Americas with 47.9% of investors favouring this class. This compares to 32.4% in EMEA and 22.9% in Asia Pacific. Upscale Americas branded assets with established cash flows are more likely to attract acquisition financing in the current debt environment. Across the EMEA regions, preference for this type of hotel was strongest in Denver Asia Pacific (57.1%), the Pacific Northwest (56.5%), Boston (51.2%), Copenhagen (40.6%) and Perth (32.7%). 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of respondents Budget hotels are growing in popularity in EMEA and Asia Pacific Buy Build Hold Sell whereas serviced apartments have attracted additional interest in Asia Pacific, reflective of the high proportion of expatriates in many ^Weighted by number of responses markets. Serviced apartments have a higher average length of stay Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels and lower risk profile compared to hotels which tend to be more likely to be sold on a nightly basis. Build sentiment recorded a marked decline down from 17.8% in June 2008 to 11.8% and is now ranked the least favoured strategy by global hotel investors with many projects being put on hold in light Preferred asset type^ of the highly restricted credit environment. The most significant fall in build sentiment was noted in some of the world’s development hot Global spots including Dubai, Bangalore and Cancun/Riviera Maya. While Americas boding well for the future stability of the investment market, stalled projects coupled with subdued profits will significantly impact EMEA operators’ ambitious growth plans. Asia Pacific 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of respondents All Grades Luxury Upscale Mid-scale Budget Serviced Apts. ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
  • 7. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 5 Americas Americas trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^ Worsening economic fundamentals and massively restricted liquidity have caused investor sentiment to plummet. Hotel investors’ short term trading performance sentiment for the Americas declined to a 80% level just above the low point recorded in our survey conducted in 60% December 2001. While still slightly positive, the medium term trading 40% Net balance sentiment has softened considerably since our last survey. Across 20% the major markets surveyed in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the 0% Caribbean and South America, investors have increased their IRR and cap rate requirements. -20% -40% The shutdown of the securitization market and the general -60% retrenchment of more traditional lenders have lowered the leverage Sep-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 available to fund transactions, making the pricing of assets increasingly difficult and disconnecting buyers and sellers. The asset Short term Medium term hold strategy is at a seven-year high, with the sentiment to buy ^Weighted by number of responses having declined over the last three surveys. The disconnect between Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels buyers and sellers is further evidenced by the lowest number of investors in three years indicating a dominant sell strategy. Of the markets surveyed in Canada, investors have the most pessimistic short and medium term outlook for Montreal (-50.0% and Economic strain has weighed down on worldwide property markets -10.9%, respectively) and the most positive medium range trading and volatility in the financial markets persists. To stabilize the financial outlook for Vancouver (15.4%). While economic growth has slowed in system, governments are initiating plans to bolster greater credit Canada, domestic demand from sectors such as mining has held up. market liquidity to make capital available from the banking industry. This may provide the credit needed to refinance existing debt and to Mexico’s outlook for the medium term exceeds the Americas fuel transactions. It will not, however, replace the massive amounts average, bolstered by Mexico’s emerging middle class, which is of capital that was provided by the securitization market. leading to increased intra-Mexico travel. Albeit marking a large decline from six months ago, investors are most upbeat on the Trading performance expectations medium term outlook for Los Cabos (18.8%). Across the Americas, the net balance of investors’ short term (six months) trading performance expectations dropped further negative The trading performance sentiment for the Caribbean marked one of to -47.8%. While signifying a considerable fall, the Americas short the region’s largest declines for both the short term and medium term sentiment is less negative than it was in the months following term with airline capacity reductions and discretionary travel coming 9/11. The medium term (two years) positive performance sentiment under pressure. Investors’ returns in the Caribbean have been decreased to 1.8%, further amplifying the downward trend recorded impacted by high energy costs that, once elevated, are slow to six months ago. While the short term performance outlook dipped decrease again. The Dominican Republic benefits from relatively negative for all Americas markets surveyed, the net balance of higher operating efficiencies and is expected to fare better. Markets investor sentiment for the medium term is positive for 48% of the with more diversified economies, such as Trinidad and Tobago with markets surveyed, including most international gateway markets. an oil and natural gas-based economy, Grand Cayman, due to its banking centre, and Puerto Rico are also in a stronger position to In the United States, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, and Houston weather the downturn. exhibit the least negative short term sentiment. The medium term trading performance outlook is most positive for markets with high barriers to entry such as Washington, D.C. (42.5%), New York (35.4%) and San Francisco (34.3%). Respondents indicated the most pessimistic short term trading sentiment for Hawaii, Orlando and Phoenix, all of which are leisure and group destination resort markets. Hawaii marked the greatest performance outlook decline of any U.S. market due to threat of flight consolidation and decreased discretionary travel.
  • 8. 6 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 Americas trading performance expectations^ Investment yield requirements The record-low leveraged IRR and capitalization rate (yield) Atlanta Boston environment has shown a clear upward trend across the Americas. Chicago Dallas All but two cities notched an increase in leveraged IRR expectations, Denver retracing on average by 50 basis points to 20.1%, reflecting the Hawaii Houston perception of increased risk. Due to the increased weighted average Los Angeles cost of capital, investors’ targeted cap rates rose by 60 basis points Miami New York since the last survey, reaching 9.2%. U.S. markets continue to Orlando Pacific Northwest record the lowest cap rates in the Americas, followed by Canada, Philadelphia Mexico, the Caribbean and South America. Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Tampa In the United States, the lowest IRR expectations were reported for Washington, D.C. gateway cities with more diversified demand and higher barriers to Montreal Toronto entry, such as New York (18.0%), Boston (18.5%) and San Vancouver Francisco (18.8%). Owed to their relatively strong demand Buenos Aires Caribbean fundamentals, the leveraged IRR increase for these three cities was Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo below the Americas average. U.S. cities with the highest IRR Santiago expectations were Tampa (20.9%), Phoenix (20.9%) and Orlando Cancun/Riv. Maya Los Cabos (20.8%), all marking an IRR increase of 130 basis points or more Mexico City from the last survey. Hawaii has traditionally exhibited low IRR -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% requirements but marked a 120 basis points increase to 19.4% due Net balance to weakened demand outlook. Short term Medium term ^Weighted by number of responses Americas investment yield requirements 2000 - 2008^ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels The medium range performance outlook for South America exceeds 25% the Americas average. Faced with slowing or declining RevPAR growth in the U.S., investors and hotel companies are looking to 20% South America to invest and to expand their brands. Brazil is 15% bolstered by strong domestic demand that has maintained positive growth, although currency pressures are increasing. Having 10% achieved investment grade, Brazil is currently a hot investment 5% market with substantial development opportunities for branded Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-08 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 hotels, particularly in the mid-market. Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo exhibited South America’s strongest medium term performance Americas IRR Americas yield (cap rate) outlook, at 11.1% and 8.8%, respectively. As investments in Brazil U.S./Canada IRR U.S./Canada yield (cap rate) have traditionally been structured with much lower leverage levels, Mexico/Caribbean/ Mexico/Caribbean/South these investments are less impacted by the current illiquidity. South America IRR America yield (cap rate) ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
  • 9. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 7 In U.S. cities, expected cap rates retraced on average by 70 basis Americas investment yield requirements points, having already increased by 60 basis points in the previous Average leveraged Average cap rate Short term cap survey. While cap rates rose in all markets, they remain lowest in IRR for new rate trend (over (initial yield) for New York (8.0%) and San Francisco (8.4%), both cities having acquisition^ new acquisition^ next six months)* maintained considerable RevPAR growth momentum during the first 20.4% (+) Atlanta 9.6% (+) Higher three quarters of 2008. Faced with concerns over declining NOI, 18.5% (+) Boston 8.5% (+) Higher investors active in Orlando, Tampa and Phoenix have the highest 19.2% (-) Chicago 8.7% (+) Higher cap rate expectations for these markets. The most pronounced cap 20.7% (+) Dallas 9.4% (+) Higher rate increase in the U.S. since the last survey was indicated for Denver 9.4% (+) Higher 20.3% (+) Hawaii. Upward pressure on cap rates is expected to persist until Hawaii 9.1% (+) 19.4% (+) Higher credit markets become more liquid and industry fundamentals begin Houston 9.4% (+) Higher 20.4% (+) to stabilize. Los Angeles 8.6% (+) Higher 19.1% (+) Miami 9.4% (+) Higher 19.7% (+) New York 8.0% (+) Higher 18.0% (+) Investors also raised their IRR requirements for Canadian markets. Orlando 9.7% (+) Higher 20.8% (+) The economic development led by the 2010 Winter Olympics has Pacific Northwest 9.3% (+) Higher 20.0% (+) investors most buoyant on Vancouver, which exhibited the lowest Philadelphia 9.3% (+) Higher 20.4% (+) leveraged IRR and cap rate expectations in Canada. Average Phoenix 9.6% (+) Higher 20.9% (+) expected cap rates for Toronto increased by 40 basis points, San Diego 8.9% (+) Higher 20.0% (+) reaching 9.4%. Montreal has experienced declining room demand San Francisco 8.4% (+) Higher 18.8% (+) thus far in 2008 and exhibits the highest IRRs of the three Canadian Tampa 9.7% (+) Higher 20.9% (+) markets surveyed. Washington, D.C. 8.5% (+) Higher 18.9% (+) Montreal Higher 21.0% (+) 9.8% (+) In Mexico, investors continue to have the lowest cap rate Toronto Higher 21.3% (+) 9.4% (+) expectations for Los Cabos. Leveraged IRR requirements have risen Vancouver Higher 20.2% (+) 9.0% (+) across all Mexican markets surveyed. The weak second home Buenos Aires Higher 23.3% (+) 11.4% (+) market will affect the viability of mixed-use resort developments in Caribbean Higher 22.9% (+) 10.7% (+) Mexico. The risk of investing in the Caribbean increased Rio de Janeiro Higher 23.3% (+) 11.1% (+) substantially over the past year due to soaring energy costs and the Sao Paulo Higher 24.0% (-) 11.4% (+) decline in the number of U.S. travellers to the region, reflected by Santiago Higher 23.6% (+) 11.6% (+) rising IRRs. In the Caribbean, surveyed cap rates rose by 50 basis Cancun/Riviera Maya Higher 23.5% (+) 9.8% (+) points from six months ago, reaching 10.7%. Los Cabos Higher 25.5% (+) 9.4% (+) Mexico City Higher 25.5% (+) 10.7% (+) South American markets saw the most moderate increases in Americas average Higher 20.1% (+) 9.2% (+) leveraged IRR requirements, up on average 20 basis points, with U.S./Canada Higher 19.8% (+) 9.1% (+) São Paulo IRRs actually recording a decrease. The negligible IRR Mexico/Caribbean/ Higher 23.3% (+) 10.4% (+) South America increase for Rio de Janeiro is reflective of investors’ relative perception of stable or declining investment risk in Brazil. Among the ^Weighted by number of responses South American markets, investors indicated the lowest cap rate *Net balance IRR = Internal rate of return expectations for Rio de Janeiro (11.1%). Yields in South America Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels and in particular in Brazil are expected to stabilize or decrease in the medium to long term as the real estate market benefits from increased transparency and more stable interest rates.
  • 10. 8 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 Investment intentions Markets attracting the most attention for acquisitions are San Francisco (46.8%) and Boston (46.2%). While hotel transaction The hold sentiment jumped 13.0 percentage points to 51.1% since volumes in these markets are down compared to 2007, investors the last survey and is at its highest level since December 2001. The remain interested in top international markets. Investors also rank dominating hold sentiment is both a reflection that many owners the Pacific Northwest (44.9%) and Washington, D.C. (43.4%) as believe the market will not support their pricing expectations, and of strong buy markets. U.S. markets with low buyer interest include the difficulty in closing substantial hotel transactions. The buy Orlando and Tampa. In Canada, Vancouver is by far the strongest sentiment declined to 32.3%, reaching its second lowest point since buy market (38.5%), boosted in part by the upcoming Winter our survey’s inception. Olympic Games. For markets in Mexico and South America, the buy sentiment is below the Americas average, reflective of the fact that Spurred by the dearth of construction financing and weakening these markets have limited product available for acquisition, and fundamentals, the build sentiment decreased for the third hence shows a higher build sentiment. consecutive survey, narrowing to 7.9%. The decreased build sentiment represents a silver lining in the credit crisis. The fact that Across the Americas, a mere 8.6% of investors indicated ‘sell’ as new supply will be choked-off will result in a more robust and their overlying investment strategy. In the U.S., the sell sentiment is sustainable recovery once demand growth resumes. The sell highest in Orlando (27.7%), followed by Tampa (20.0%) and Dallas sentiment (8.6%) decreased by a third, again evidencing that (19.6%). Toronto leads the Canadian cities’ sell sentiment at 12.5%. investors are reluctant to set the benchmark of a sale at a lower Investors across Mexico, the Caribbean and South America all transaction price. exhibit a low sell sentiment. In the Caribbean, very few hotel transactions are anticipated in the near term unless driven by the Americas short term investment intentions 2000 - 2008^ pressure to refinance existing debt. Respondents’ inclination to build recorded the lowest proportion of 60% % of respondents responses (7.9%) of the four investment intentions in the survey. The 40% build sentiment is markedly more elevated in markets outside of the U.S. Unlike markets in the U.S. where demand projections 20% overwhelmingly do not justify new supply, South American markets 0% saw an increase in the proportion of investors seeking to build. Sep-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 Investors active in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Buenos Aires and Santiago all indicated equal or higher interest in building new supply Buy Build Hold Sell than acquiring existing assets. The build sentiment in the Caribbean trailed off, and the good news for existing supply is that a number of ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels projects in early planning stages will not come to fruition. Investors indicated a dominant hold strategy in all but two Americas markets. In the U.S., Philadelphia and Tampa depict the highest hold sentiment, each at 62.5%. Markets where the increase in hold sentiment was most pronounced include Hawaii, New York and Phoenix. In Canada, Montreal exhibits the highest hold sentiment (60.9%). Over 40% of investors intend to hold their assets in Mexico, with the hold sentiment in South America being at a comparable level.
  • 11. Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 9 Americas short term investment intentions^ Investors’ interest in luxury assets in the Americas remained unchanged from the last survey, with 27.5% of investors targeting Atlanta this asset type. In the U.S., luxury assets are most in demand in Boston Chicago Hawaii (36.7%), Miami (30.3%) and New York (29.7%). Owed to a Dallas Denver scarcity of luxury product in Montreal, 37.9% of investors active in Hawaii Canada are targeting assets in this segment. Forty per cent of Houston Los Angeles investors active in Brazil are shopping luxury assets in Rio de Miami Janeiro and São Paulo. New York Orlando Pacific Northwest Philadelphia Across the Americas, the number of investors targeting investment in Phoenix mid-scale assets declined marginally to 13.2%. Of the markets San Diego San Francisco surveyed, interest in mid-scale assets is highest in San Diego Tampa Washington, D.C. (19.2%), Los Angeles (19.1%) and Atlanta (19.0%). Investors Montreal indicated the highest interest for budget assets in São Paulo Toronto Vancouver (10.0%), reflective of the vast opportunities to develop the Buenos Aires Caribbean underserved branded budget hotel sector in Brazil. Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Santiago Americas preferred asset type^ Cancun/Riv. Maya Los Cabos Mexico City Atlanta 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Boston Chicago % of respondents Dallas Denver Buy Build Hold Sell Hawaii Houston Los Angeles ^Weighted by number of responses Miami Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels New York Orlando Pacific Northwest Across the Americas, investors indicated upscale properties as their Philadelphia Phoenix preferred asset type, with 47.9% intending to invest in upscale San Diego assets, up 8.4 percentage points from the previous survey. Upscale San Francisco Tampa branded assets with healthy in-place cash flows are more likely to Washington, D.C. Montreal attract acquisition financing in the current debt environment. In the Toronto U.S., upscale assets are most sought after in Denver (57.1%) and Vancouver Buenos Aires the Pacific Northwest (56.5%). In Canada, the proportion of investors Caribbean Rio de Janeiro seeking upscale assets is highest in Toronto (48.5%). Investors Sao Paulo active in South America indicated the highest sentiment for upscale Santiago Cancun/Riv. Maya investment in Rio de Janeiro (40.0%). Los Cabos Mexico City 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of respondents All grades Luxury Upscale Mid-scale Budget Serviced Apts. ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
  • 12. 10 Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey · Buy, build, hold, sell? · December 2008 EMEA Whereas investors’ expectations remained positive in the first half of The most negative outlook was recorded for the UK, in particular for this year, the events of Q3 have left no doubt as to the seriousness provincial cities such as Manchester and Birmingham. These cities of the current financial crisis and its likely impact on the hotel are highly dependent on domestic demand which is forecast to drop industry. It appears that although not a single event, the combination rapidly in the coming year. The UK is not only suffering from the of events is now being recognised as a demand shock. Buy global conditions, but in addition has a pool of highly indebted sentiments decreased substantially, whilst investors reported residents, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet, with increased preferences to hold or sell assets. Nevertheless, buy higher unemployment and rapidly falling house prices. intentions prevailed across the region. The greatest fall in expectations occurred in CEE which in the first half of the year was still perceived as offering strong income growth The EMEA hotel market’s trading performance is likely to be heading potential. Although it could be argued that this is still the case relative for tough times, at least in the short term, a sentiment which was to some other markets, investors are clearly expecting a significant reported consistently across all markets. Investors reported greater impact on trading performance from the global environment. Various IRR and yield requirements, which expanded by 80 and 60 basis countries in the east have high levels of government debt, limiting points respectively with some very wide ranges of opinion. As the funds available to support their financial markets. uncertainty about the current economic market conditions remains, investors’ confidence seemingly remains weak with yield Investors have suggested that Dubai will be the least affected requirements expected to soften further in the coming months as market in the short term, with short term expectations only room night demand falls off quickly. marginally negative. However, in contrast to other EMEA cities, Trading performance expectations medium term expectations are more pessimistic. A lag seems to exist between the impact on the Middle Eastern hotel market and to The increasing recognition that financial turmoil will continue in some that in Europe. The development boom of recent years in the area is form, together with worsening global economic conditions have highly likely to affect the real estate market in the medium to long started to impose substantial pressure on trading performance term and the first signs of a downturn in residential property values expectations. Both short term and medium term expectations turned have already become apparent which may impact the pace of future negative across the region, with investors adopting a very dismal development projects. outlook for the coming six months. Expectations in the medium term were only marginally negative but interestingly the fall was the The survey suggests that Germany will be one of the best positioned largest that we have experienced over the life of the survey. countries in Europe to weather the storm. Although short term trading expectations are negative, the medium term outlook is more EMEA trading performance expectations 2000 - 2008^ optimistic. In particular Munich, Berlin and Hamburg are expected to achieve positive trading performance in the medium term. Munich 80% benefits from a wide base of domestic and international visitors as well as strong conference and corporate demand. Although all are 60% set to be affected in the short term at least, investors seemingly 40% Net balance expect a market such as Munich to recover quickly. This sentiment 20% might have been enhanced by the fact that the market is still 0% relatively undersupplied at present whilst future developments are -20% likely to be delayed or cancelled. -40% -60% Sep-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jun-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 Short term Medium term ^Weighted by number of responses Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels