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3 May 2012
Update

India Banking
Loan / Deposit growth moderates on expected lines;
CD ratio at 76.5%
RBI released the banking sector business data for the fortnight ended 20 th April
2013. Key takeaways:
 Loan growth declined to 17.6% YoY v/s 18.7% in previous fortnight. In
absolute terms, loans decreased by INR759bv/s increase of INR819b in
previous fortnight (declined INR278b a year ago).
 Deposit growth moderated to 13.3% YoY v/s 14.3% a fortnight ago. In
absolute terms, deposits declined INR625b v/s increase of INR1.9t in
previous fortnight.
 CD ratio moderated to 76.5% v/s 77% a fortnight ago. TTM incremental CD
ratio stood at 97.6%.
 Investments improved marginally by INR57b compared to INR752b in
previous fortnight. SLR ratio improved 47bp to 27.6% v/s 27.2% a fortnight
ago.

Loan and deposit growth moderates to 17.6% and 13.3% YoY






Non-food credit declined by INR777b (v/s increase of INR835b in the
previous fortnight and decline of INR215b a year ago). Non-food credit
growth declined to 16.9% YoY v/s 18.2% a fortnight earlier.
Deposit growth moderated to 13.3% YoY v/s 14.3% a fortnight ago. In
absolute terms, deposits declined INR625b v/s increase of INR1.9t in
previous fortnight.
We expect loan growth for FY13 to be moderate at 15-16% due to low
investment demand, lag impact of slowdown in investment activity on
other segments and macroeconomic uncertainty.

CD ratio moderates to 76.5%; SLR ratio at 27.6%




CD ratio moderated by 46bp to 76.5% v/s 77% a fortnight ago, led by lower
credit disbursements and deposit mobilization. TTM incremental CD ratio
stood at 97.6% v/s 97% a fortnight earlier.
Investments improved marginally by INR57b compared to INR752b in
previous fortnight. SLR ratio improved 47bp to 27.6% v/s 27.2% a fortnight
ago.

1
India Banking
Loan growth moderates on a fortnight basis …

so as deposit growth (largely seasonal in nature)

:

:
as a consequence CD ratio moderates

Loans (absolute) declines (INR b)…

:
:
so do deposits (INR b)

SLR ratio improves to 27.6%

:

3 May 2012

:

2
India Banking
Disclosures
This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxa tion advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or
inducement to invest in securities or other in vestments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution
and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The pers on accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its
affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees
to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or
its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its
affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any
of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pe rtaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should se ek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision
based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of
Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered

India Banking LTD
No
No
No
No

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or re search associates principally
responsible for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, includ ing quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary
to law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

For U.K.
This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as de scribed in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005 (referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not investment professionals. Any investm ent or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to investment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons.

For U.S.
MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors
based in the U.S., Motilal Oswal has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth re ferred to as "major
institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investo rs. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only
available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered brokerdealer, Marco Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a
research analyst account.

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com

3 May 2012

3

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research report

  • 1. 3 May 2012 Update India Banking Loan / Deposit growth moderates on expected lines; CD ratio at 76.5% RBI released the banking sector business data for the fortnight ended 20 th April 2013. Key takeaways:  Loan growth declined to 17.6% YoY v/s 18.7% in previous fortnight. In absolute terms, loans decreased by INR759bv/s increase of INR819b in previous fortnight (declined INR278b a year ago).  Deposit growth moderated to 13.3% YoY v/s 14.3% a fortnight ago. In absolute terms, deposits declined INR625b v/s increase of INR1.9t in previous fortnight.  CD ratio moderated to 76.5% v/s 77% a fortnight ago. TTM incremental CD ratio stood at 97.6%.  Investments improved marginally by INR57b compared to INR752b in previous fortnight. SLR ratio improved 47bp to 27.6% v/s 27.2% a fortnight ago. Loan and deposit growth moderates to 17.6% and 13.3% YoY    Non-food credit declined by INR777b (v/s increase of INR835b in the previous fortnight and decline of INR215b a year ago). Non-food credit growth declined to 16.9% YoY v/s 18.2% a fortnight earlier. Deposit growth moderated to 13.3% YoY v/s 14.3% a fortnight ago. In absolute terms, deposits declined INR625b v/s increase of INR1.9t in previous fortnight. We expect loan growth for FY13 to be moderate at 15-16% due to low investment demand, lag impact of slowdown in investment activity on other segments and macroeconomic uncertainty. CD ratio moderates to 76.5%; SLR ratio at 27.6%   CD ratio moderated by 46bp to 76.5% v/s 77% a fortnight ago, led by lower credit disbursements and deposit mobilization. TTM incremental CD ratio stood at 97.6% v/s 97% a fortnight earlier. Investments improved marginally by INR57b compared to INR752b in previous fortnight. SLR ratio improved 47bp to 27.6% v/s 27.2% a fortnight ago. 1
  • 2. India Banking Loan growth moderates on a fortnight basis … so as deposit growth (largely seasonal in nature) : : as a consequence CD ratio moderates Loans (absolute) declines (INR b)… : : so do deposits (INR b) SLR ratio improves to 27.6% : 3 May 2012 : 2
  • 3. India Banking Disclosures This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxa tion advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other in vestments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. 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This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth re ferred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investo rs. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered brokerdealer, Marco Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd 3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021 Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com 3 May 2012 3