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PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. 2(1): 53-61 (1994)                                                        ISSN: 0128-7702
                                                                                   © Universiti Pertanian Malaysia Press




                       Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the
                              Malaysian Manufacturing Sector

                             ZULKARNAIN YUSOP and ROSLAN A. GHAFFAR
                                     Faculty of Economics and Management
                                         Universiti Pertanian Malaysia,
                               43400 UPM Serdang, Se1angor Daml Ehsan, Malaysia.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), manufacturing, determinants

                                                      ABSTRAK
     Pelaburan langsung asing (PIA) telah memainkan peranan yang penting daIam perkembangan sektor perkilangan
     di Malaysia. Malangnya, corak PIA tersebut adalah tertumpu kepada beberapa industri tertentu seperti barangan
     eletronik dan tekstil yang kurang melibatkan tenaga buruh yang mahir, kurang intensif teknologi dan sangat
     bergantung kepada input yang diimport. Hal ini telah mengakibatkan beberapa masalah seperti asas industri
     perkilangan yang sempit, mudah dipengaruhi oleh pergolakan (ekonomi) luar negara serta nilai tambah yang
     rendah. Oleh yang demikian, adalah perlu untuk memperluaskan asas industri perkilangan dan juga menggaIakkan
     lagi perkembangan industri yang berasaskan sumber (tempatan). Kajian ini melihat beberapa faktor (kuantitatif)
     yang mempengaruhi PIA di sektor perkilangan Malaysia. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan bahawa keadaan
     ekonomi negara, kestabilan matawang, kemudahan kewangan tempatan, kemudahan infrastruktur, kemudahan
     tenaga bumh serta insentif pelaburan adalah di antara faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi PIA di dalam sektor
     perkilangan di Malaysia.
                                                      ABSTRACT
     Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a significant role in the development of the Malaysian manufac-
     turing sector. Unfortunately, the pattern of FDI is unevenly concentrated in a few industries such as
     electrical and textile which involve less skilled labour, less intensive technology and are highly dependent
     on imported inputs. This has led to the problems associated with a narrow manufacturing base, vulnerability
     to external fluctuations as well as low value added. It is therefore necessary to promote a broader manufac-
     turing base and to further encourage FDl in resource-based industries. This study attempts to look at several
     quantitative factors that influence FDI in the Malaysian manufacturing sector. The results of the study
     indicate that a nation's economic health, currency stability, access to local financing, availability of
     adequate human and physical infrastructures as well as investment incentives are among the important
     factors influencing FDI in the manufacturing sector of Malaysia.


                  INTRODUCTION                                 petitiveness of the Malaysian manufacturing ex-
 Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a sub-             ports in the world market by improving product
 stantial role in the development of Malaysian                 qualities (Yusof, 1990).
 manufacturing industries. Many of the multina-                     The government on its part has been encour-
 tional corporations (MNCs) which are involved                 aging private sector investment (especially
 in direct investment in the Malaysian manufac-                FDI)more actively since the mid-eighties when
 turing sector have brought with them technologi-              the country was experiencing one of its worst
 cal knowhow and business experiences that have                recessions. The Investment Act was introduced in
 contributed to the development of the manufac-                1986 to further stimulate investment activities in
 turing sector and the economy as a whole (Fong                various manufacturing industries. This has gene-
 1988 and Beaumont 1990). In addition, MNCs                    rated positive results with more foreign inves-
 have also been credited for enhancing the com-                tors coming into the country.           The share of
Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar


foreign proposed capital investment in the ap-                    The uneven pattern ofFDI across the manu-
proved manufacturing projects has increased from             factUring industries has resulted in a narrow manu-
19% in 1984 to 64% in 1992 of the total proposed             factUring base. At present, manufacturing activi-
capital investment. The trend in FDI (in terms of            ties are highly concentrated in the electrical and
proposed capital investment) in Malaysian manu-              textile industries. The narrow manufactUring base
facturing indicates a sharp increase during the              appears to be at odds with the country's diversifi-
1984-90 period (Table 1).                                    cation policy originated in the 1960's. The nar-
                                                             row manufacturing base also has several negative
                    TABLE 1
                                                             implications in terms of the structure of employ-
     Proposed capital investment in approved
                                                             ment, export and value added. The employment
  manufacturing projects in Malaysia(RM Million)
                                                             pattern in the manufacturing sector is concen-
Year               Local         Foreign         Total       trated in the electrical and textile industries. As
1984              3083.1          718.0          3801.1      at December, 1991, the electrical industry pro-
                  (81 %)*        (19%)          (100%)       vided the highest level of employment (22.7% of
1985              4727.6          959.3          5686.9      the total employment in the manufacturing) fol-
                   (83%)         (17%)          (100%)       lowed by the textile industry, 15.2% (Table 2). In
1986              3475.3         1687.9          5163.2      terms of exports, electrical products (electronic,
                   (67%)         (33%)          (100%)       electrical appliances and machinery) have ac-
1987              1873.9         2060.0          3933.9      counted for the majority of the share of the ex-
                   (48%)         (52%)          (100%)
1988              4215.9                                     port of manufactures. In 1992, the share of elec-
                                 4878.0          9093.9
                   (46%)         (54%)          (100%)       trical products in the total manufactured exports
1989              3562.7         8652.7         12215.4      was 57.5% (Table 3).
                   (29%)         (71 %)         (100%)
1990             10539.0        17629.1         28168.1                            TABLE 2
                   (37%)         (63%)          (100%)               Malaysia: employment by industry as
1991             13763.1        17055.3         30818.4                       at December, 1991
                   (45%)         (55%)          (100%)         Industry (SITe)                    Employment
1992             10003.0        17772.1         27775.1
                                                                                                       (%)
                   (36%)         (64%)          (100%)
                                                             Food, Beverages                            63,741
1984-92         55243.6         71412.3       126656.0       & Tobacco (311-313)                       (9.2%)
                (43.6%)         (56.4%)        (100%)        Textiles, Clothing                         92,273
                                                             & Footwear (321-323)                    (13.3%)
Source: MlDA, 1993
'Percentage (rounded to the nearest digit)                   Wood Products (331)                        56,694
                                                                                                       (8.2%)
                                                             Rubber Products (355)                     43,231
     Despite the overall increase in FDI, foreign
                                                                                                       (6.2%)
participation (in terms of capital) across the               Chemicals & Petroleum                     21,986
manufacturing industries continues to be uneven.             Products (351-353)                        (3.2%)
Some of the industries are over invested while               Non-Metalic                               26,310
others appear to be overlooked by foreign inves-             Mineral Products (369)                    (3.8%)
tors. For example, as at December 1988, in the               Metal Products (371)                      39,678
electrical industry, foreign share constituted 81 %                                                    (5.7%)
of the industry's total fixed asset, while for the           Electrical & Electronic                 211,046
beverages and tobacco; rubber products; and tex-             Machinery & Appliances (383)            (30.5%)
                                                             Transport Equipment (384)                 26,098
tile industries, the foreign shares were 70, 56
                                                                                                      (3.8%)
and 53% respectively. In contrast, foreign share             Other Manufactures                      111,22.1j
in the total fixed asset for the wood and wood                                                       (16.1 %)
products; plastic; and chemical industries repre-
                                                             Total                                   692,282
sented only 14.6%, 17.8% and 21 % respectively
of the industry's total fixed asset (MIDA 1990).                                                   (100.0%)
                                                             Source: MIDA, 1993


54                                  PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
ti
                                                                                                                                                                         '"
                                                                                                                                                                         1>
                                                                                   TABLE 3
                                                             Malaysia: export of manufactured goods (RM millions)
                                                                                                                                                                         a
                                                                                                                                                                         S'
                                                                                                                                                                         po
                                                                                                                                                                         :;
                                                                                                                                                                         1;1
                                            1970               1980                  1985             1989             1990              1991             1992           0
                                                                                                                                                                         .."
                                                                                                                                                                         >rj
"0        Total                         (100)      612     (100)    6101       (100) 12111         (100) 36567      (100) 46833      (100) 61427       (100) 38443       0
                                                                                                                                                                         ...,
'"
...,
p;                                                          (7.8)     475       (4.9)        594    (5.0)    1788    (4.4)    2062    (3.7)   2243     (3.6)   1365      ':;
                                                                                                                                                                        dQ'"
          Food, Beverages              (18.3)      112
8.                                                                                                                                                                       ti
 >'<"
 po       & Tobacco                                                                                                                                                      ::;.
':-<      Textiles, Clothing            (6.5)       40     (13.2)     806      (10.6)       1289    (8.7)    3190    (8.5)    3983    (7.8)   4805     (7.5)   2874      '~
                                                                                                                                                                          "
 rJJ
 0
 !"'
          Footwear                                                                                                                                                        S
                                                                                                                                      (3.4)
 rJJ

 "
          Wood Products                (14.4)       88      (7.6)     467         (3)        363    (3.2)
                                                                                                    (3.1)
                                                                                                             1184
                                                                                                             1148
                                                                                                                     (2.9)
                                                                                                                     (3.3)
                                                                                                                              1362
                                                                                                                              1534    (2.8)
                                                                                                                                              2063
                                                                                                                                              1749
                                                                                                                                                       (3.8)
                                                                                                                                                       (2.9)
                                                                                                                                                               1466
                                                                                                                                                               1131
                                                                                                                                                                         '""
                                                                                                                                                                         g"
          Rubber Products               (2.8)       17      (1.4)      84         (1)        133
 R"                                                                                                                                                                     '"
 :::r:    Chemicals &                  (32.2)      197      (5.9)     361      (11.6)       1412    (7.4)    2698    (6.8)    3174    (5.8)   3539     (6.4)   2461     g
 >::      Petroleum Products                                                                                                                                            S'
 a                                                            (1)      61       (1.2)        150    (1.8)     658    (1.6)     771    (1.4)     888    (1.3)     509    &
          Non-Metalic                   (3.3)       20
 ~        Mineral Products                                                                                                                                              'a::
                                                                                                                                                                         "
 I'D
                                                            (2.6)    161        (2.5)        300    (4.0) 1463       (3.5) 1625       (3.1) 1883       (3.1) 1208      eo.
 z        Metal Products                (4.2)       26
                                                                                                                                                                       ~
 !='      Electrical & Electronic       (2.8)       17     (46.4)   2832       (49.8)       6028   (56.9) 20799     (56.6) 26504     (57.9) 35602     (58.4) 22440      '" .
                                                                                                                                                                        ~
 ......                                                                                                                                                                 :;
......    Machinery & Appliances
 <D
 ..,.
 <D       Transport Equipment            (11)       68      (6.7)     407       (8.5)       1031    (3.2)    1184   (4.1)     1927   (5.4)    3292    (4.9)
                                                                                                                                                                        a::
                                                                                                                                                               1894     po
                                                                                                                                                                        :;
          Other Manufactures            (4.5)       27      (7.3)     447       (6.9)        831    (6.7)    2455   (8.3)     3891   (8.7)    5363    (8.1)    3095     §,
                                                                                                                                                                        "
                                                                                                                                                                        2
          Note      Figures in parentheses denote percentages                                                                                                           ::l.
                                                                                                                                                                        :;
          Source:   Malaysia, Ministry of Finance, Economic Report, various issues                                                                                     (Jq
                                                                                                                                                                       rJJ
                                                                                                                                                                       '"
                                                                                                                                                                       "
                                                                                                                                                                       5'
                                                                                                                                                                       ...,




 '"
 '"
Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar


      The electrical industry has also accounted          Basically, analysis of FDI has used the compara-
for the major portion of the manufacturing value          tive advantage theory, industrial organization
added. In 1990, electrical machinery contributed          theory and investment theory (Rock, ]973).
21.5% of the total manufacturing value added,                  In specifying the FDI function, various coun-
while chemical and chemical products contributed          try related aspects which influence FDI in
10.7% and food contributed 8.3% (Malaysia, In-            Malaysian manufacturing are considered. It is
dustrial Surveys, 1992).                                  assumed that multinational firms take into account
     The highly dominant electrical and textile           several aspects of the host country in their FDI
industries, in terms of employment, exports and           decision process to reduce the investment risks,
value added, indicate the narrowness of the coun-         minimize the factor costs and maximize their pro-
try's manufacturing base and its vulnerablity to          fits. Selection of the variables is based on pre-
external changes in terms of world supply and de-         vious findings on the determinants ofFDI (Rock
mand for the products of the two industries.              1973, Goh 1973, Ahmed 1975, Schneider and
Should there be any severe drop in the demand             Frey 1986 and Bardai 1989). For the purpose of
for these products in the world market, the em-           this study, we are especially interested in several
ployment, exports as well as economic growth, in          economic factors. Accordingly, an FDI function
the country could be greatly disturbed.                   for the Malaysian manufacturing sector can
     In addition, most of the multinational corpo-        generally be written as:
rations or MNC- owned electronics and electrical
appliances plants (which are mainly off-shore                    Y   = f(GNP, MOG, ER, INT, INF, TBA,
plants) are engaged in the assembly processes                           CPFC, FGDE)
of integrated circuits (ICs), industrial equipment
and consumer appliances like air-conditioners,            where Y is the dependent variable. Two different
radios and television sets from completely                proxies for the dependent variable were chosen
knocked-down imported units for the local                 for this study, namely: (1) the level of total assets
and export markets (Fong, 1988). The nature of            of the foreign controlled firm engaged in
the Malaysian electrical industry (highly                 Malaysian manufacturing (AFC) and (2) the level
dependent on the imported inputs) has                     of investment in fixed assets by foreign control-
been the main reason why the industry value-              led firm engaged in the manufacturing sector of
added is relatively low (Chalmers 1991).                  Malaysia (lFC). As defined by Oman (1984), a
     The purpose of this paper is to report on a          firm is considered to be involved in FDI if the
study of several country related factors                  foreign entity owns a majority of the equities and
that are considered important when decisions              has direct managerial control in the firm. Thus,
on FDI are made by MNCs. While this study may             for the purpose of this analysis, a manufacturing
not provide specific recommendations for the              company with at least 50% of the equities con-
promotion of a broader manufacturing base and             trolled by foreign entities is considered as an FDI
 encourage FDI in the under invested industries,          company. The total assets of foreign companies
it would be able to provide a general redirection         include stocks and claims on branches as well as
for the current FDI policies and incentives. l            affiliated enterprises abroad, while investment in
                                                          fixed assets includes acquisition of transport equip-
     SPECIFICATION OF FOREIGN DIRECT                      ment, machinery and office equipment.
          INVESTMENT FUNCTION                                  GNP (gross national product) reflects the
Attempts at explaining FDI have appeared in three         general performance of the economy and pro-
major strands of theoretical framework. These             vides an indication of the size of the local market
different theories are important and helpful in           for the manufacturing outputs (Rock, 1973). A
understanding the international firms' operations.         positive relationship is expected between GNP


'Over the years, the government has enacted and implemented various policies to attract foreign invesunent in
Malaysia. Such policies and their respective programmes are well documented and will not be discussed here. For
reference see Yong (1988).


56                                PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
Detenninants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector


and FDI. MaG (Ratio of manufacturing out-                tive. FGDE which mainly involves spending on
put over GNP) measures the degree of the coun-           basic infrastructure such as education, transpor-
try's industrialization. It also provides a good hint    tation systems, water and sewage facilities can
of the supply conditions of manufacturing inputs         complement and thus, promote FDI. Conversely,
such as power, transportation, communication             public investment in projects in which the pro-
and labour. A higher ratio of manufacturing out-         ducts compete (for source of funds and other fac-
put over the GNP reflects a better supply of in-         tors of production) with those of the private sec-
vestment inputs. Thus, a direct relationship             tor can dampen FDI to an extent that it substi-
between MaG and FDI is expected. The ER or               tutes the private projects. INF denotes inflation.
Foreign Reserve position provides an indication          In most cases, high rates of inflation provide a
on the exchange rate risks associated with FDI by        good indication of economic instability and
showing the degree to which the country's cur-           failure on the part of the government to control
rency is under or over-valued. Foreign investors         the country's macroeconomic environment.
are likely to incur losses due to exchange rate
changes if the currency is over-valued (Rock,                        DATA COllECTION AND
1973). A decline in the foreign reserve position                        MODEL ESTIMATION
is expected to have a negative impact on FDI.            Data for the studies were collected from various
Changes in the levels of external reserve do not         sources including The Quarterly Economic Bul-
directly influence FDI, but will first affect the        letin of Bank Negara Malaysia and the Financial
exchange rate because the foreign reserve posi-          Reports of Limited Companies (published by the
tion actually provides information on the condi-         Department of Statistics). To eliminate the in-
tion of exchange rate. It is the changes in the          flationary factor, the relevant data were deflated
levels of exchange rates that will affect FDI. Thus,     by the consumer price index (1967=100). Since
the effect of the foreign reserve position on FDI        Malaysia has been independent for only about
is not likely to be immediate. Accordingly, exter-       33 years and not until mid 1960s were most of
nal reserve lagged one period is used for the study.     the Malaysian data properly recorded, only a rela-
      TBA (total asset of the banking system) pro-       tively small number of observations are available.
vides an important barometer on the availability         For the above reasons, annual data covering the
oflocal financial services such as local credits and     period ofl966 to 1988 are used.
insurance services. FDI is expected to increase               A preliminary estimation suggested that
with TBA. CPFC or profitability indicates whether        heteroscedasticity was present in the models. In
 the activities of multinational corporations are        order to reduce the problem, all of the depend-
affected by the opportunity for high profits. This       ent and independent variables were transformed
idea is stressed by the investment theory of FDI.        into log form. The two general equations rep-
To check whether the level of profits in year t has      resenting the relationships between eight explana-
any impact on the level of FDI in year HI, the            tory variables with FDI which are represented by
 amount of profits of foreign controlled compa-           two dependent variables may be expressed as:
 nies in Malaysian manufacturing (lagged one pe-
 riod) is used for the analysis. INT (Interest rate)           LAFC = (Xo + (XILGNP + (X2LER + c({LINT
 is normally associated with high cost of capital                   + (X4LINF + (X5LMOG + (X6LTBA
 which often leads to the reduction in FDI (assum-                  + (X7LCPFC + (XsLFGDE + III        [1]
 ing that domestic financing is important to the
 foreign investors). However, in the case ofa poorly           LIFC = ~o + ~ILGNP + ~2LER + ~3LINT
 developed financial market in which FDI projects                     + ~4LINF + ~5LMOG + ~6LTBA
 are constrained by inadequate domestic savings,                      + ~~CPFC + ~8LFGDE + 112          [2]
 increase in the interest rates can help raise the
 domestic savings and finally promote FDI.
                                                              Estimations of equations [l] and [2] (Table
      FGDE (federal government development ex-
                                                          4) indicate the presence of a multicollinearity
 penditure) represents public investment rate. The
                                                          problem. This is supported by the fact that only
 impact of FGDE on FDI can be positive or nega-


                                  PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994                          57
Zulkarnain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar


few of the explanatory variables are significant in            Using LIFC as the dependent variable in
spite of the high values ofR2 0.9967 for equation          equation [5], a significant positive relationship
[l] and 0.8642 for equation [2]). A partial corre-         between LGNP, LER and LINT with the depen-
lation analysis shows that GDP is highly correlated        dent variable was obtained. The tvalue forLGNP
to total asset of the banking system, and current          is significant at the 5% level while for LINT
profit of foreign controlled companies. External           and LER, they are significant at the 10% level.
reserve is strongly related to the total asset of the      Inflation (LINF) does not show any significant
banking system. Manufacturing output/GNP and               relationship with the dependent variable; how-
interest rate are also highly correlated to the            ever, its slope coefficient shows a negative sign.
total asset of the banking system. To reduce the               Regressing LIFC on LMOG, LTBA, LCPFC
multicollinearity problem, the models were                 and LFGDE in equation [6], it is found that three
respecified with closely related variables appear-         explanatory variables, namely LTBA, LMOG and
ing in different equations. The following regres-          LCPFC show significant positive relationship with
sion equations were used:                                  the dependent variable. The t values for LMOG
                                                           and LCPFC are significant at the 10% level while
For LAFC as the dependent variable:                        for LTBA its t value is significant at the 5% level.
    LAFC = 1to + 1t 1LGNP + 1t2LER + 1t3LINT
           + 1t4LINF + 113                          [3]       SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
                                                           The analysis presented in this paper reveals that
     LAFC = '1: 0 + '1: ILMOG + '1:~CPFC + '1: 3LTBA       gross national product (GNP), net external re-
            + '1: 4LFGDE + 114                      [4]    serves, interest rates, manufacturing output/GNP,
                                                           current profits of foreign controlled companies
For LIFC as the dependent variable:                        in Malaysian manufacturing and total assets of
    LIFC = 00 0 + oolLGNP + 002LER + 003LINT               the banking system are important factors in-
            + 004LINF + Ils                  [5]           fluencing FDI in Malaysian manufacturing. The
                                                           significant positive relationship between GNP and
     LIFC = 4>0 + 4>I LMOG + 4>~CPFC + 4>3LTBA             the dependent variable is expected because a high
            + 4>4LFGDE + 116                 [6]           level of G P is normally associated with positive
                                                           growth and a nation's economic health. The
     All of the regression results for equation [3]        level of external reserve (LER) which indicates
through [6] are summarized in Table 4. It is shown         the extent to which Malaysian currency is under
in equation [3] that gross national product                or over-valued also has a positive impact on the
(LGNP), external reserve lagged one period                 activities of FDI. A low level of external reserve
(LER) and interest rate (LINT) are positively re-          discourages FDI because it leads to overvaluation
lated to the LAFC. The t values are significant            ofa country's currency which can increase the risk
at the 5% level for the GNP and LINT and at                of investment activities through the currency ex-
the 1 % level for LER. The coefficient for infla-          change loss. The level of interest rate also plays a
tion (LINF) shows the correct negative sign as             significant role in FDI decision. In the Malaysian
expected. However, its t value is not significant          case, increase in interest rate is associated with
at the 10% level. Equation [4] demonstrates a              the increase in FDI. The direct relationship
significant positive relationship between manufac-         between interest (deposit) rate and savings has
turing output/GNP (LMOG), total assets of the              been supported by several economists, for
banking system (LTBA) and current profits of               instance Shaw (1973). According to them, in-
foreign controlled companies in manufacturing              crease in deposit rates can lead to an influx of
sector lagged one period (LCPFC) with the de-              deposits into commercial banks which ultimately
pendent variable (LAFC). Their t values are all            expands the real size of the banking system and
significant at the 1 % level. Public investment            hence raises the net flow of real bank credit to
 (LFGDE) shows a significant negative relation-            finance investment. Inflation does not seem to
ship with the dependent variable. Its t value is           be a significant determinant for FDI in Malaysia.
less than the critical t value at ex = 0.05.               A careful review on the trend and degree of infla-


58                                 PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
TABLE 4
                                                                                      Results of regressions                                                                  t:l
                                                                                                                                                                              '"
         Equa- Dep.
         tion
                          Constant       LGNP           LER(-l)       LINT         LINF          LMOG        LTBA      LCPFC(-l)    LFGDE      Adjusted
                                                                                                                                                  R2
                                                                                                                                                          Durbin-
                                                                                                                                                          Watson
                                                                                                                                                                     F-
                                                                                                                                                                    value
                                                                                                                                                                              "
                                                                                                                                                                              a
                                                                                                                                                                              S·
                                                                                                                                                                              III
                                                                                                                                                                              ;:l
         [1]    LAFC        1.4337       0.0968           0.0172      -0.0533      0.0393       0.5347        0.4499      0.3357     -0.1101    0.9967    2.4627    673.11    G

                                                                                                                                                                      ***     ....,
                                                                                                                                                                              0
                          (4.4981)     (0.8709)         (0.5929)    (-1.1447)    (2.7812)     (7.9965)      (8.4658)    (8.3840)   (-5.0633)                                  "rj
                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                              ...,
'...,"
 '"
Pi
  "                             ***                                                     **           ***        ***         ***         ***
                                                                                                                                                                     15.16    '"
                                                                                                                                                                             aq'
 ;:l
         [2]     LIFC       -1.9022      -2.0671          0.5764       1.0397      0.1265         -0.8364     1.7358      0.2538      0.2114    0.8643    2.3873              ;:l

  fr                      (-0.4998)    (-1.4203)        (1.6269)     (2.0114)    (0.8250)        (-.9570)   (2.6154)    (0.6037)   (-0.8069)                          ***     t:l
                                                                                                                                                                              ::;.
':-<
 C/J
                                                                             *                                   **                                                           '~
                                                                                                                                                                               "
0        [3]    LAFC        0.6694       0.3642           0.2340       0.2064   -0.1165                                                         0.9923    1.7650    515.43
0                                                                                                                                                                             S'
C/J                       (0.6921)     (2.3765)         (3.2192)     (2.7512) (-0.5599)                                                                               ***     ri
p.
R"
                                              **             ***           **                                                                                                 §
:r:
c::
         [4]    LAFC        1.9049                                                              0.4866        0.4293      0.4437     -0.1191    0.9932    2.0037    585.98    '"
                                                                                                                                                                              ;:;
3                         (12.863)                                                            (5.4876)      (22.965)    (15.165)   (-4.2023)                           ***    s·
                                ***                                                                  ***        ***         ***         ***                                   So
~
I'D
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Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar


tion in Malaysia shows that in general, inflation         In Malaysia, the public sector enterprises have
in Malaysia has been well under control and has           been involved in both types of investments. The
not been as severe as in many other developing            two different elements of public investments have
countries (Yusof, 1985).                                  two different directions of impact on investment
      The positive relationship between (LMOG)            activities. Thus, the negative relationship between
and FDI implies that certain human aspects and            public investment rate and FDI suggests that pub-
physical infrastructure related to manufacturing          lic investment activities on balance have an ad-
such as skilled and cheap labour; reliable supply         verse effect on FDI. The negative consequences
of water and energy; and adequate transporta-             of government activities via the public sector have
tion system for dissemination of the products are         been noted by a number of observers. Among
important in the eyes of foreign investors. Fur-          these are the reduction offair competition among
 thermore, it suggests that the host country's con-        the private firms in Malaysia (Ghazali 1988) and
 ducive policies can contribute to the increase in         the generation of macroeconomic problems such
FDI. A greater percentage share of manufactur-            as inflation and balance of payment difficulties
 ing output in the gross national product also             (Fischer, 1988).
 reflects the society's acceptance of the "discipline"           Several aspects should be considered in the
 of manufacturing industry. Profitability is another       policy making process in order to improve the
 important consideration in the FDI decision               pattern of FDI in the various manufacturing in-
 process. This is confirmed by the strong positive         dustries in the country.
 relationship between the lagged value of current                First, since certain human aspects and physi-
 profits earned by foreign controlled companies            cal infrastructures related to manufacturing are
 in the Malaysian manufacturing sector and the de-         important in the eyes offoreign investors, the pro-
 pendent variable. This relationship shows that            vision of a well trained and efficient labour force,
 foreign investors are quite sensitive to investment       special or subsidized industrial sites, and other
 incentives which can increase the possibility for         infrastructural facilities can attract foreign in-
 higher profits. Accordingly, this finding suggests        vestors to certain designated industries.
  the possibility of controlling FDI through invest-             Next, the allocation of special funds or credit
  ment incentives. Furthermore, the analysis de-            facilities for firms which participate in industries
  monstrates that local funds and other local finan-       which are under invested can also increase the
  cial services including insurance are important           flow of FDI into those industries because many
  factors influencing FDI. The fact is supported by         foreign firms regard the possibility for local fi-
  the strong positive relationship between the level        nance as one of the important considerations in
  of assets of the consolidated banking system and          their FDI decisions.
  the dependent variable. This finding provides a                In addition, policy makers may also utilize tax
  base for guiding FDI operations in Malaysian              incentives in order to improve the pattern of
  manufacturing through credit control or credit            FDI since our analysis shows that increase in
  allocation policies. In fact, a study by Liete and        profitability is quite an important element in the
  Vaez-Zadeh (1986) on credit allocation and invest-        FDI decision. The use of tax incentives in guid-
  ment decision in the Korean manufacturing sec-            ing the FDI activities should however be blended
  tor has concluded that limitations on credit avail-       with other incentives (other than tax) in order to
  ability tend to affect investment decision directly        be more effective.
  rather than through interest rate movements.                    It should be borne in mind that the better
  Finally, the results show a significant negative im-      way to design policies is to first maintain and
   pact of public investment rate on FDI. Public in-         further elevate the country's attractiveness as an
  vestment can either be in basic infrastructure             investment ground for foreign investors. Guiding
   (such as education, transportation systems, water         the activities ofFDI accross the various industries
- and sewage facilities) which would facilitate FDI          in the country would be the subsequent step. It is
   or in projects for the public sector enterprises          important that the government aim at keeping a
  where the products compete (for input factors as           steady economic growth, reduce the currency fluc-
   well as market) with those of the private sector.


 60                                PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Malaysian Manufactuling Sector


tuation, control the inflation, increase the effi-           LIETE, S.P. and R. VAEZ-ZADEH. 1986. Credit allocation
ciency of the public sector and financial institu-               and investment decisions: the case of the manu-
tions, upgrade the quality of labour force and                   facturing sector in KOI-ea. Wo1'ld Development.
more importantly, maintain political stability.                   14(1): 115-126.

                                                             Malaysia, Bank Negara, Quarterly Economic Bulletin,
                     REFERENCES                                  various issues.
AHMED, A. 1975. Determinants of direct investment,           -         . Departmen t of Statistics. Industrial Survey,
   with special reference to developing countries.                various issues.
   Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Pennslyvania.
                                                             ____ . Department of Statistics. Financial RepOTt
BAROA], B. 1989. Evaluation of Malaysian cmporate              of Limited Companies, various issues.
    investment incentives. Malaysian Institute of Eco-
    nomic Research (!VIlER). Paper TO. 25 (August).          ____ . Ministry of Finance. Economic Report, vari-
                                                               ous issues.
BE.AU~·[ONT, P.G.] 990. The role of foreign investment
     in Malaysia .Iurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 21 & 22: 65-       MIDA (Malaysian Industrial Development Authm-
     77.                                                        ity), Statistics on the Manufacturing Sect01: Various
                                                                issues.
CHALMERS,!. 1991. The political economy of the elec-
   tronics industry in ASEAN. ASEAN Economic                 OMAN, C. 1984. New Forms of International Investment
    Bulletin. 8(2): 194 -209.                                   in Developing Countries. Paris: OECD.

FISCHER, B. 1988. Public enterprises in developing           ROCK, M.1973. Cross country analysis of the determi-
     countries: market structure competition, effi-              nants of d.s. foreign direct investment in manu-
     ciencyand the scope [or pl-ivatisation. Malaysian           factlu-ing industl)' in less developed countries.
    Joumal OfEconomic Studies 25 (2): 45-61.                     Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Pittsburgh.

FaNG, C.O. 1988. Multinational corporations in               SCHNEIDER, F. and B.S. FREY 1985. Economic and po-
   ASEAN: technology transfer and linkages with                  litical determinants of foreign direct invest-
   host economies. Paper presented at the 13th                   ment. World Development 13: 161-175.
    A nnual Conference of the Federation of ASEAN Eco-        SHAW, E.S. 1973. Financial Deepening in Economic De-
    nomic Association. Penang. Malaysia.                          velojJment. New YOI-k: Oxford University Press.
GHAZALI, y. 1988. Malaysia's industrialization policies      YONG, P. C. 1988. Latest Malaysian Investment Incentives.
    and strategies - Have they helped or retarded                Kuala Lumpur: Longman Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.
    growth? A Paper presented at the Federation Of
    Malaysia Manufacturing (FMM) National Manufac-           YUSOF, M. 1985. Inflation and controls: Malaysian
    turing Conference. Jan. 22, 1988.                            experience in 1970's. Journal Ekonomi Malaysia
                                                                 11: 35-54.
GOH, K. 1973. Factors Influencing U.S. International
   Firms in Locating Export-Oriented Manufactur-              YUSOF, M.I. 1990. Export competitiveness: o~jectives
   ing Facilities in Singapore, Taiwan and Hong                   and performance of the Industrial Master Plan.
   Kong. Ph.D. Dissertation. Indiana University.                  Iurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 21-22: 99-] 18.



                                                                                              (Received 25 May 1993)




                                     PenanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994                                  61

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61176257 determinant-of-foreign-direct-investment-in-the-malaysian-manufacturing-sector

  • 1. PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. 2(1): 53-61 (1994) ISSN: 0128-7702 © Universiti Pertanian Malaysia Press Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector ZULKARNAIN YUSOP and ROSLAN A. GHAFFAR Faculty of Economics and Management Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Se1angor Daml Ehsan, Malaysia. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), manufacturing, determinants ABSTRAK Pelaburan langsung asing (PIA) telah memainkan peranan yang penting daIam perkembangan sektor perkilangan di Malaysia. Malangnya, corak PIA tersebut adalah tertumpu kepada beberapa industri tertentu seperti barangan eletronik dan tekstil yang kurang melibatkan tenaga buruh yang mahir, kurang intensif teknologi dan sangat bergantung kepada input yang diimport. Hal ini telah mengakibatkan beberapa masalah seperti asas industri perkilangan yang sempit, mudah dipengaruhi oleh pergolakan (ekonomi) luar negara serta nilai tambah yang rendah. Oleh yang demikian, adalah perlu untuk memperluaskan asas industri perkilangan dan juga menggaIakkan lagi perkembangan industri yang berasaskan sumber (tempatan). Kajian ini melihat beberapa faktor (kuantitatif) yang mempengaruhi PIA di sektor perkilangan Malaysia. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan bahawa keadaan ekonomi negara, kestabilan matawang, kemudahan kewangan tempatan, kemudahan infrastruktur, kemudahan tenaga bumh serta insentif pelaburan adalah di antara faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi PIA di dalam sektor perkilangan di Malaysia. ABSTRACT Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a significant role in the development of the Malaysian manufac- turing sector. Unfortunately, the pattern of FDI is unevenly concentrated in a few industries such as electrical and textile which involve less skilled labour, less intensive technology and are highly dependent on imported inputs. This has led to the problems associated with a narrow manufacturing base, vulnerability to external fluctuations as well as low value added. It is therefore necessary to promote a broader manufac- turing base and to further encourage FDl in resource-based industries. This study attempts to look at several quantitative factors that influence FDI in the Malaysian manufacturing sector. The results of the study indicate that a nation's economic health, currency stability, access to local financing, availability of adequate human and physical infrastructures as well as investment incentives are among the important factors influencing FDI in the manufacturing sector of Malaysia. INTRODUCTION petitiveness of the Malaysian manufacturing ex- Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a sub- ports in the world market by improving product stantial role in the development of Malaysian qualities (Yusof, 1990). manufacturing industries. Many of the multina- The government on its part has been encour- tional corporations (MNCs) which are involved aging private sector investment (especially in direct investment in the Malaysian manufac- FDI)more actively since the mid-eighties when turing sector have brought with them technologi- the country was experiencing one of its worst cal knowhow and business experiences that have recessions. The Investment Act was introduced in contributed to the development of the manufac- 1986 to further stimulate investment activities in turing sector and the economy as a whole (Fong various manufacturing industries. This has gene- 1988 and Beaumont 1990). In addition, MNCs rated positive results with more foreign inves- have also been credited for enhancing the com- tors coming into the country. The share of
  • 2. Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar foreign proposed capital investment in the ap- The uneven pattern ofFDI across the manu- proved manufacturing projects has increased from factUring industries has resulted in a narrow manu- 19% in 1984 to 64% in 1992 of the total proposed factUring base. At present, manufacturing activi- capital investment. The trend in FDI (in terms of ties are highly concentrated in the electrical and proposed capital investment) in Malaysian manu- textile industries. The narrow manufactUring base facturing indicates a sharp increase during the appears to be at odds with the country's diversifi- 1984-90 period (Table 1). cation policy originated in the 1960's. The nar- row manufacturing base also has several negative TABLE 1 implications in terms of the structure of employ- Proposed capital investment in approved ment, export and value added. The employment manufacturing projects in Malaysia(RM Million) pattern in the manufacturing sector is concen- Year Local Foreign Total trated in the electrical and textile industries. As 1984 3083.1 718.0 3801.1 at December, 1991, the electrical industry pro- (81 %)* (19%) (100%) vided the highest level of employment (22.7% of 1985 4727.6 959.3 5686.9 the total employment in the manufacturing) fol- (83%) (17%) (100%) lowed by the textile industry, 15.2% (Table 2). In 1986 3475.3 1687.9 5163.2 terms of exports, electrical products (electronic, (67%) (33%) (100%) electrical appliances and machinery) have ac- 1987 1873.9 2060.0 3933.9 counted for the majority of the share of the ex- (48%) (52%) (100%) 1988 4215.9 port of manufactures. In 1992, the share of elec- 4878.0 9093.9 (46%) (54%) (100%) trical products in the total manufactured exports 1989 3562.7 8652.7 12215.4 was 57.5% (Table 3). (29%) (71 %) (100%) 1990 10539.0 17629.1 28168.1 TABLE 2 (37%) (63%) (100%) Malaysia: employment by industry as 1991 13763.1 17055.3 30818.4 at December, 1991 (45%) (55%) (100%) Industry (SITe) Employment 1992 10003.0 17772.1 27775.1 (%) (36%) (64%) (100%) Food, Beverages 63,741 1984-92 55243.6 71412.3 126656.0 & Tobacco (311-313) (9.2%) (43.6%) (56.4%) (100%) Textiles, Clothing 92,273 & Footwear (321-323) (13.3%) Source: MlDA, 1993 'Percentage (rounded to the nearest digit) Wood Products (331) 56,694 (8.2%) Rubber Products (355) 43,231 Despite the overall increase in FDI, foreign (6.2%) participation (in terms of capital) across the Chemicals & Petroleum 21,986 manufacturing industries continues to be uneven. Products (351-353) (3.2%) Some of the industries are over invested while Non-Metalic 26,310 others appear to be overlooked by foreign inves- Mineral Products (369) (3.8%) tors. For example, as at December 1988, in the Metal Products (371) 39,678 electrical industry, foreign share constituted 81 % (5.7%) of the industry's total fixed asset, while for the Electrical & Electronic 211,046 beverages and tobacco; rubber products; and tex- Machinery & Appliances (383) (30.5%) Transport Equipment (384) 26,098 tile industries, the foreign shares were 70, 56 (3.8%) and 53% respectively. In contrast, foreign share Other Manufactures 111,22.1j in the total fixed asset for the wood and wood (16.1 %) products; plastic; and chemical industries repre- Total 692,282 sented only 14.6%, 17.8% and 21 % respectively of the industry's total fixed asset (MIDA 1990). (100.0%) Source: MIDA, 1993 54 PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
  • 3. ti '" 1> TABLE 3 Malaysia: export of manufactured goods (RM millions) a S' po :; 1;1 1970 1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 0 .." >rj "0 Total (100) 612 (100) 6101 (100) 12111 (100) 36567 (100) 46833 (100) 61427 (100) 38443 0 ..., '" ..., p; (7.8) 475 (4.9) 594 (5.0) 1788 (4.4) 2062 (3.7) 2243 (3.6) 1365 ':; dQ'" Food, Beverages (18.3) 112 8. ti >'<" po & Tobacco ::;. ':-< Textiles, Clothing (6.5) 40 (13.2) 806 (10.6) 1289 (8.7) 3190 (8.5) 3983 (7.8) 4805 (7.5) 2874 '~ " rJJ 0 !"' Footwear S (3.4) rJJ " Wood Products (14.4) 88 (7.6) 467 (3) 363 (3.2) (3.1) 1184 1148 (2.9) (3.3) 1362 1534 (2.8) 2063 1749 (3.8) (2.9) 1466 1131 '"" g" Rubber Products (2.8) 17 (1.4) 84 (1) 133 R" '" :::r: Chemicals & (32.2) 197 (5.9) 361 (11.6) 1412 (7.4) 2698 (6.8) 3174 (5.8) 3539 (6.4) 2461 g >:: Petroleum Products S' a (1) 61 (1.2) 150 (1.8) 658 (1.6) 771 (1.4) 888 (1.3) 509 & Non-Metalic (3.3) 20 ~ Mineral Products 'a:: " I'D (2.6) 161 (2.5) 300 (4.0) 1463 (3.5) 1625 (3.1) 1883 (3.1) 1208 eo. z Metal Products (4.2) 26 ~ !=' Electrical & Electronic (2.8) 17 (46.4) 2832 (49.8) 6028 (56.9) 20799 (56.6) 26504 (57.9) 35602 (58.4) 22440 '" . ~ ...... :; ...... Machinery & Appliances <D ..,. <D Transport Equipment (11) 68 (6.7) 407 (8.5) 1031 (3.2) 1184 (4.1) 1927 (5.4) 3292 (4.9) a:: 1894 po :; Other Manufactures (4.5) 27 (7.3) 447 (6.9) 831 (6.7) 2455 (8.3) 3891 (8.7) 5363 (8.1) 3095 §, " 2 Note Figures in parentheses denote percentages ::l. :; Source: Malaysia, Ministry of Finance, Economic Report, various issues (Jq rJJ '" " 5' ..., '" '"
  • 4. Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar The electrical industry has also accounted Basically, analysis of FDI has used the compara- for the major portion of the manufacturing value tive advantage theory, industrial organization added. In 1990, electrical machinery contributed theory and investment theory (Rock, ]973). 21.5% of the total manufacturing value added, In specifying the FDI function, various coun- while chemical and chemical products contributed try related aspects which influence FDI in 10.7% and food contributed 8.3% (Malaysia, In- Malaysian manufacturing are considered. It is dustrial Surveys, 1992). assumed that multinational firms take into account The highly dominant electrical and textile several aspects of the host country in their FDI industries, in terms of employment, exports and decision process to reduce the investment risks, value added, indicate the narrowness of the coun- minimize the factor costs and maximize their pro- try's manufacturing base and its vulnerablity to fits. Selection of the variables is based on pre- external changes in terms of world supply and de- vious findings on the determinants ofFDI (Rock mand for the products of the two industries. 1973, Goh 1973, Ahmed 1975, Schneider and Should there be any severe drop in the demand Frey 1986 and Bardai 1989). For the purpose of for these products in the world market, the em- this study, we are especially interested in several ployment, exports as well as economic growth, in economic factors. Accordingly, an FDI function the country could be greatly disturbed. for the Malaysian manufacturing sector can In addition, most of the multinational corpo- generally be written as: rations or MNC- owned electronics and electrical appliances plants (which are mainly off-shore Y = f(GNP, MOG, ER, INT, INF, TBA, plants) are engaged in the assembly processes CPFC, FGDE) of integrated circuits (ICs), industrial equipment and consumer appliances like air-conditioners, where Y is the dependent variable. Two different radios and television sets from completely proxies for the dependent variable were chosen knocked-down imported units for the local for this study, namely: (1) the level of total assets and export markets (Fong, 1988). The nature of of the foreign controlled firm engaged in the Malaysian electrical industry (highly Malaysian manufacturing (AFC) and (2) the level dependent on the imported inputs) has of investment in fixed assets by foreign control- been the main reason why the industry value- led firm engaged in the manufacturing sector of added is relatively low (Chalmers 1991). Malaysia (lFC). As defined by Oman (1984), a The purpose of this paper is to report on a firm is considered to be involved in FDI if the study of several country related factors foreign entity owns a majority of the equities and that are considered important when decisions has direct managerial control in the firm. Thus, on FDI are made by MNCs. While this study may for the purpose of this analysis, a manufacturing not provide specific recommendations for the company with at least 50% of the equities con- promotion of a broader manufacturing base and trolled by foreign entities is considered as an FDI encourage FDI in the under invested industries, company. The total assets of foreign companies it would be able to provide a general redirection include stocks and claims on branches as well as for the current FDI policies and incentives. l affiliated enterprises abroad, while investment in fixed assets includes acquisition of transport equip- SPECIFICATION OF FOREIGN DIRECT ment, machinery and office equipment. INVESTMENT FUNCTION GNP (gross national product) reflects the Attempts at explaining FDI have appeared in three general performance of the economy and pro- major strands of theoretical framework. These vides an indication of the size of the local market different theories are important and helpful in for the manufacturing outputs (Rock, 1973). A understanding the international firms' operations. positive relationship is expected between GNP 'Over the years, the government has enacted and implemented various policies to attract foreign invesunent in Malaysia. Such policies and their respective programmes are well documented and will not be discussed here. For reference see Yong (1988). 56 PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
  • 5. Detenninants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector and FDI. MaG (Ratio of manufacturing out- tive. FGDE which mainly involves spending on put over GNP) measures the degree of the coun- basic infrastructure such as education, transpor- try's industrialization. It also provides a good hint tation systems, water and sewage facilities can of the supply conditions of manufacturing inputs complement and thus, promote FDI. Conversely, such as power, transportation, communication public investment in projects in which the pro- and labour. A higher ratio of manufacturing out- ducts compete (for source of funds and other fac- put over the GNP reflects a better supply of in- tors of production) with those of the private sec- vestment inputs. Thus, a direct relationship tor can dampen FDI to an extent that it substi- between MaG and FDI is expected. The ER or tutes the private projects. INF denotes inflation. Foreign Reserve position provides an indication In most cases, high rates of inflation provide a on the exchange rate risks associated with FDI by good indication of economic instability and showing the degree to which the country's cur- failure on the part of the government to control rency is under or over-valued. Foreign investors the country's macroeconomic environment. are likely to incur losses due to exchange rate changes if the currency is over-valued (Rock, DATA COllECTION AND 1973). A decline in the foreign reserve position MODEL ESTIMATION is expected to have a negative impact on FDI. Data for the studies were collected from various Changes in the levels of external reserve do not sources including The Quarterly Economic Bul- directly influence FDI, but will first affect the letin of Bank Negara Malaysia and the Financial exchange rate because the foreign reserve posi- Reports of Limited Companies (published by the tion actually provides information on the condi- Department of Statistics). To eliminate the in- tion of exchange rate. It is the changes in the flationary factor, the relevant data were deflated levels of exchange rates that will affect FDI. Thus, by the consumer price index (1967=100). Since the effect of the foreign reserve position on FDI Malaysia has been independent for only about is not likely to be immediate. Accordingly, exter- 33 years and not until mid 1960s were most of nal reserve lagged one period is used for the study. the Malaysian data properly recorded, only a rela- TBA (total asset of the banking system) pro- tively small number of observations are available. vides an important barometer on the availability For the above reasons, annual data covering the oflocal financial services such as local credits and period ofl966 to 1988 are used. insurance services. FDI is expected to increase A preliminary estimation suggested that with TBA. CPFC or profitability indicates whether heteroscedasticity was present in the models. In the activities of multinational corporations are order to reduce the problem, all of the depend- affected by the opportunity for high profits. This ent and independent variables were transformed idea is stressed by the investment theory of FDI. into log form. The two general equations rep- To check whether the level of profits in year t has resenting the relationships between eight explana- any impact on the level of FDI in year HI, the tory variables with FDI which are represented by amount of profits of foreign controlled compa- two dependent variables may be expressed as: nies in Malaysian manufacturing (lagged one pe- riod) is used for the analysis. INT (Interest rate) LAFC = (Xo + (XILGNP + (X2LER + c({LINT is normally associated with high cost of capital + (X4LINF + (X5LMOG + (X6LTBA which often leads to the reduction in FDI (assum- + (X7LCPFC + (XsLFGDE + III [1] ing that domestic financing is important to the foreign investors). However, in the case ofa poorly LIFC = ~o + ~ILGNP + ~2LER + ~3LINT developed financial market in which FDI projects + ~4LINF + ~5LMOG + ~6LTBA are constrained by inadequate domestic savings, + ~~CPFC + ~8LFGDE + 112 [2] increase in the interest rates can help raise the domestic savings and finally promote FDI. Estimations of equations [l] and [2] (Table FGDE (federal government development ex- 4) indicate the presence of a multicollinearity penditure) represents public investment rate. The problem. This is supported by the fact that only impact of FGDE on FDI can be positive or nega- PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994 57
  • 6. Zulkarnain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar few of the explanatory variables are significant in Using LIFC as the dependent variable in spite of the high values ofR2 0.9967 for equation equation [5], a significant positive relationship [l] and 0.8642 for equation [2]). A partial corre- between LGNP, LER and LINT with the depen- lation analysis shows that GDP is highly correlated dent variable was obtained. The tvalue forLGNP to total asset of the banking system, and current is significant at the 5% level while for LINT profit of foreign controlled companies. External and LER, they are significant at the 10% level. reserve is strongly related to the total asset of the Inflation (LINF) does not show any significant banking system. Manufacturing output/GNP and relationship with the dependent variable; how- interest rate are also highly correlated to the ever, its slope coefficient shows a negative sign. total asset of the banking system. To reduce the Regressing LIFC on LMOG, LTBA, LCPFC multicollinearity problem, the models were and LFGDE in equation [6], it is found that three respecified with closely related variables appear- explanatory variables, namely LTBA, LMOG and ing in different equations. The following regres- LCPFC show significant positive relationship with sion equations were used: the dependent variable. The t values for LMOG and LCPFC are significant at the 10% level while For LAFC as the dependent variable: for LTBA its t value is significant at the 5% level. LAFC = 1to + 1t 1LGNP + 1t2LER + 1t3LINT + 1t4LINF + 113 [3] SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS The analysis presented in this paper reveals that LAFC = '1: 0 + '1: ILMOG + '1:~CPFC + '1: 3LTBA gross national product (GNP), net external re- + '1: 4LFGDE + 114 [4] serves, interest rates, manufacturing output/GNP, current profits of foreign controlled companies For LIFC as the dependent variable: in Malaysian manufacturing and total assets of LIFC = 00 0 + oolLGNP + 002LER + 003LINT the banking system are important factors in- + 004LINF + Ils [5] fluencing FDI in Malaysian manufacturing. The significant positive relationship between GNP and LIFC = 4>0 + 4>I LMOG + 4>~CPFC + 4>3LTBA the dependent variable is expected because a high + 4>4LFGDE + 116 [6] level of G P is normally associated with positive growth and a nation's economic health. The All of the regression results for equation [3] level of external reserve (LER) which indicates through [6] are summarized in Table 4. It is shown the extent to which Malaysian currency is under in equation [3] that gross national product or over-valued also has a positive impact on the (LGNP), external reserve lagged one period activities of FDI. A low level of external reserve (LER) and interest rate (LINT) are positively re- discourages FDI because it leads to overvaluation lated to the LAFC. The t values are significant ofa country's currency which can increase the risk at the 5% level for the GNP and LINT and at of investment activities through the currency ex- the 1 % level for LER. The coefficient for infla- change loss. The level of interest rate also plays a tion (LINF) shows the correct negative sign as significant role in FDI decision. In the Malaysian expected. However, its t value is not significant case, increase in interest rate is associated with at the 10% level. Equation [4] demonstrates a the increase in FDI. The direct relationship significant positive relationship between manufac- between interest (deposit) rate and savings has turing output/GNP (LMOG), total assets of the been supported by several economists, for banking system (LTBA) and current profits of instance Shaw (1973). According to them, in- foreign controlled companies in manufacturing crease in deposit rates can lead to an influx of sector lagged one period (LCPFC) with the de- deposits into commercial banks which ultimately pendent variable (LAFC). Their t values are all expands the real size of the banking system and significant at the 1 % level. Public investment hence raises the net flow of real bank credit to (LFGDE) shows a significant negative relation- finance investment. Inflation does not seem to ship with the dependent variable. Its t value is be a significant determinant for FDI in Malaysia. less than the critical t value at ex = 0.05. A careful review on the trend and degree of infla- 58 PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
  • 7. TABLE 4 Results of regressions t:l '" Equa- Dep. tion Constant LGNP LER(-l) LINT LINF LMOG LTBA LCPFC(-l) LFGDE Adjusted R2 Durbin- Watson F- value " a S· III ;:l [1] LAFC 1.4337 0.0968 0.0172 -0.0533 0.0393 0.5347 0.4499 0.3357 -0.1101 0.9967 2.4627 673.11 G *** ...., 0 (4.4981) (0.8709) (0.5929) (-1.1447) (2.7812) (7.9965) (8.4658) (8.3840) (-5.0633) "rj 0 ..., '...," '" Pi " *** ** *** *** *** *** 15.16 '" aq' ;:l [2] LIFC -1.9022 -2.0671 0.5764 1.0397 0.1265 -0.8364 1.7358 0.2538 0.2114 0.8643 2.3873 ;:l fr (-0.4998) (-1.4203) (1.6269) (2.0114) (0.8250) (-.9570) (2.6154) (0.6037) (-0.8069) *** t:l ::;. ':-< C/J * ** '~ " 0 [3] LAFC 0.6694 0.3642 0.2340 0.2064 -0.1165 0.9923 1.7650 515.43 0 S' C/J (0.6921) (2.3765) (3.2192) (2.7512) (-0.5599) *** ri p. R" ** *** ** § :r: c:: [4] LAFC 1.9049 0.4866 0.4293 0.4437 -0.1191 0.9932 2.0037 585.98 '" ;:; 3 (12.863) (5.4876) (22.965) (15.165) (-4.2023) *** s· *** *** *** *** *** So ~ I'D [5] LIFC -8.0931 0.9444 0.7060 0.9803 -0.0544 0.8716 1.8934 18.93 '3:: " III Z (-6.0935) (2.6405) (1.7986) (1.7612) (-.5291 ) *** iii" '< ~ *** ** * * ..... '" £j' ..... [6] LIFC 1.0430 0.4749 0.5902 -0.1296 0.7883 1.6986 19.61 :J <0 ... <0 (2.0281 ) (2.5419) (1.9058) (-0.4335) *** 3:: III ;:l * ** * c:: ~ n 2 Figure in parentheses denote t-va)ues: * significant at 10% level of confidence :J. ;:l oq ** significant at 5% level of confidence C/J *** significant at 1% level of confidence '" n 0 ..., '" <0
  • 8. Zulkamain Yusop and Roslan A. Ghaffar tion in Malaysia shows that in general, inflation In Malaysia, the public sector enterprises have in Malaysia has been well under control and has been involved in both types of investments. The not been as severe as in many other developing two different elements of public investments have countries (Yusof, 1985). two different directions of impact on investment The positive relationship between (LMOG) activities. Thus, the negative relationship between and FDI implies that certain human aspects and public investment rate and FDI suggests that pub- physical infrastructure related to manufacturing lic investment activities on balance have an ad- such as skilled and cheap labour; reliable supply verse effect on FDI. The negative consequences of water and energy; and adequate transporta- of government activities via the public sector have tion system for dissemination of the products are been noted by a number of observers. Among important in the eyes of foreign investors. Fur- these are the reduction offair competition among thermore, it suggests that the host country's con- the private firms in Malaysia (Ghazali 1988) and ducive policies can contribute to the increase in the generation of macroeconomic problems such FDI. A greater percentage share of manufactur- as inflation and balance of payment difficulties ing output in the gross national product also (Fischer, 1988). reflects the society's acceptance of the "discipline" Several aspects should be considered in the of manufacturing industry. Profitability is another policy making process in order to improve the important consideration in the FDI decision pattern of FDI in the various manufacturing in- process. This is confirmed by the strong positive dustries in the country. relationship between the lagged value of current First, since certain human aspects and physi- profits earned by foreign controlled companies cal infrastructures related to manufacturing are in the Malaysian manufacturing sector and the de- important in the eyes offoreign investors, the pro- pendent variable. This relationship shows that vision of a well trained and efficient labour force, foreign investors are quite sensitive to investment special or subsidized industrial sites, and other incentives which can increase the possibility for infrastructural facilities can attract foreign in- higher profits. Accordingly, this finding suggests vestors to certain designated industries. the possibility of controlling FDI through invest- Next, the allocation of special funds or credit ment incentives. Furthermore, the analysis de- facilities for firms which participate in industries monstrates that local funds and other local finan- which are under invested can also increase the cial services including insurance are important flow of FDI into those industries because many factors influencing FDI. The fact is supported by foreign firms regard the possibility for local fi- the strong positive relationship between the level nance as one of the important considerations in of assets of the consolidated banking system and their FDI decisions. the dependent variable. This finding provides a In addition, policy makers may also utilize tax base for guiding FDI operations in Malaysian incentives in order to improve the pattern of manufacturing through credit control or credit FDI since our analysis shows that increase in allocation policies. In fact, a study by Liete and profitability is quite an important element in the Vaez-Zadeh (1986) on credit allocation and invest- FDI decision. The use of tax incentives in guid- ment decision in the Korean manufacturing sec- ing the FDI activities should however be blended tor has concluded that limitations on credit avail- with other incentives (other than tax) in order to ability tend to affect investment decision directly be more effective. rather than through interest rate movements. It should be borne in mind that the better Finally, the results show a significant negative im- way to design policies is to first maintain and pact of public investment rate on FDI. Public in- further elevate the country's attractiveness as an vestment can either be in basic infrastructure investment ground for foreign investors. Guiding (such as education, transportation systems, water the activities ofFDI accross the various industries - and sewage facilities) which would facilitate FDI in the country would be the subsequent step. It is or in projects for the public sector enterprises important that the government aim at keeping a where the products compete (for input factors as steady economic growth, reduce the currency fluc- well as market) with those of the private sector. 60 PertanikaJ. Soc. Sci. & Hum. Vol. 2 No.1 1994
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