The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index, Al Rayan Islamic Index, and several Qatar stocks. It finds that in the short term, the indexes and mentioned stocks are poised to "bounce back" upward. Key points of strength are noted, such as indexes surpassing resistances and stocks clearing important resistance levels on high volume. Near and long term price targets are given. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD are also cited as supporting further upward moves.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index surpassed the resistances of 9,853.27 and 9,900.0 in
a single swoop and rallied around 74 points (0.75%). Moreover, the
index closed above the 9,900.0 level for the first time since
September on the back of large volumes, which is a positive
development for buyers. We believe based on the current higher
push the index may test and clear the resistance near 9,935.0 and
target the 10,000.0 level. Meanwhile, both indicators appear strong.
The QERI Index rose by around 0.56% to close the session at
2,830.57. The index successfully defended the support of 2,814.66
and moved above the sideways trading range as bulls were in full
control yesterday. We believe a move above the resistance of
2,835.40 may spark additional buying interest and push the index
toward the 2,850.0 level. Meanwhile, both indicators are moving
upward, thus supporting our bullish outlook.
QEWS cleared the important resistance of QR159.20 after
consolidating below it over the past few weeks, which is a positive
sign. The recent price action and rising volumes indicate that QEWS
may continue to move higher and test QR162.30. With the RSI rising
higher and the MACD widening further away from the signal line in a
bullish manner, it appears QEWS’ preferred direction is toward an
upside. However, a close below QR159.20 may be a bearish sign.
Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QNNS breached above the channel resistance line near QR87.60
and tagged another all-time high yesterday. QNNS has been
relentlessly tagging all-time highs over the past few days and is in
strong uptrend mode. Moreover, both the momentum indicators and
large volumes support a further higher move. Thus, the stock is
poised to tag new highs. However, a decline below the channel line at
QR87.60 may result in a sideways movement.
MERS surged around 2.24% and surpassed the resistances of the
21-day moving average (currently at QR135.60) and QR136.0 along
with the descending trendline in a single trading session. We believe
this strong breakout with increased volumes has bullish implications
and the stock may advance toward the QR138.0 level. Moreover, the
RSI has shown a bullish divergence indicating a good buying
opportunity for buyers. A dip below QR136.0 may halt its upmove.
GISS penetrated above the key resistance of QR58.50 and tagged a
new all-time high on the back of large volumes yesterday. Based on
the current higher push the stock is poised to tag new highs. We
believe as long as the stock trades above the support of QR58.50
level, the upmove may remain intact, and it may continue to rise.
However, a dip below QR58.50 may result in consolidation before its
next move.
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2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
9,915.21
UP
UP
9,500.00
9,440.00
10,200.00
10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
2,830.57
UP
UP
2,700.00
2,600.00
2,950.00
3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
29.80
UP
UP
24.00
23.20
31.40
33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
67.00
DOWN
DOWN
63.90
62.40
84.20
87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
56.00
UP
UP
42.00
39.50
57.14
58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
68.30
UP
FLAT
65.00
64.30
78.50
79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
58.00
UP
UP
47.90
45.00
60.80
61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
64.00
UP
UP
58.50
57.00
64.60
65.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
29.95
DOWN
DOWN
29.15
28.75
43.90
45.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
48.30
DOWN
DOWN
47.50
46.70
69.10
78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)*
137.00
UP
UP
129.90
128.50
138.50
140.15
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
161.60
UP
UP
144.10
142.00
175.20
176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)*
160.20
UP
UP
140.00
132.10
172.00
174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
59.30
UP
UP
30.50
29.50
60.15
61.25
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
31.80
UP
UP
20.36
20.00
32.30
33.50
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
27.00
UP
UP
22.80
19.50
29.25
29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
22.14
UP
UP
17.06
16.00
25.30
25.90
137.50
DOWN
DOWN
108.00
98.10
146.00
148.00
9.08
UP
UP
8.50
8.24
9.98
10.20
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
19.27
UP
FLAT
15.08
14.52
21.15
21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)*
87.80
UP
UP
58.20
56.70
88.90
89.70
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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