The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index, Al Rayan Islamic Index, and several Qatar stocks. It identifies short-term upward trends for the QE Index and select stocks like CBQK, QEWS, and IQCD which have broken above key resistance levels. Masraf Al Rayan is expected to move downward in the short-term. A table lists the stocks, their trends, support and resistance levels to watch. The analysis will help investors identify opportunities and trade tactics.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Downmove
The QE Index breached the important resistance of 10,445.44 and
rallied around 63 points (0.60%), tagging a 52-week high on the back
of large volumes. The index managed to breach this level after
consolidating below it over the past few weeks, bringing a big relief
for the bulls. We believe based on the current momentum the index
may advance toward the 10,500.0-10,550.0 levels. Conversely, the
10,445.44 level may now act as a support level for the index.
The QERI Index declined marginally by around -0.01% to close the
session at 3,066.14. The support to watch out for would be near the
3,048 level. On the other hand, the resistance would be seen near
3,071.0. We expect the index to oscillate between these levels. Only
a move above or below these levels may decide the next move.
Meanwhile, the RSI is stalling in the overbought territory indicating
that the index may consolidate in a range before its next move.
MARK developed a shooting star candle pattern on Monday, which
often leads to consolidation or decline. Moreover, the stock declined
yesterday and fell under the support of QR34.15, thus providing a
confirmation of the trend reversal pattern. In addition, the RSI has
shown a bearish divergence, while the MACD is closing the signal line
from above. We believe MARK may drift down toward the support of
QR33.50. However, a close above QR34.15 may attract buyers.
Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Breakout
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout
CBQK cleared its resistances of QR70.50 and QR70.90 in a single
swoop for the first time since August, which is a positive sign.
Moreover, the gains were supported by rising volumes, indicating
further strength in the price action. We believe the stock may now
march toward it next resistance of QR71.50. In addition, the RSI and
the MACD lines are pointing higher, thus supporting our bullish
outlook for the stock. A dip below QR70.90 may halt its upmove.
QEWS surpassed its key resistances of QR169.0 and QR169.80 in a
single trading session yesterday. The stock moved above this level
for the first time since November after consolidating below it over the
past few weeks. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu
candle pattern indicating a likely higher move toward QR170.90. Both
the RSI and the MACD lines support a further higher move. However,
a dip below QR169.80 on may indicate a false breakout.
IQCD penetrated above its resistances of QR166.50 and the 21-day
moving average (currently at QR166.99) along with the descending
trendline, which had restricted its bullish move earlier. The stock is
currently at the threshold of the next resistance level of QR168.10.
Given the RSI which is rising higher, it seems IQCD may be ready for
a move above the QR168.10 level targeting QR168.90. Conversely, a
retreat below the 21-day moving average may be a bearish signal.
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2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
10,496.89
UP
UP
10,445.44
10,400.00
10,550.00
10,580.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
3,066.14
UP
UP
3,048.00
3,036.00
3071.00
3,100.00
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)*
33.80
UP
UP
33.50
32.85
34.90
35.45
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)*
71.10
UP
UP
70.50
70.90
71.50
72.10
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
58.40
UP
UP
57.40
56.90
59.00
59.65
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
69.90
UP
UP
69.00
68.25
70.30
70.90
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
61.10
UP
UP
60.10
59.80
61.20
62.00
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
67.00
UP
UP
66.50
65.90
67.50
67.90
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
31.10
DOWN
DOWN
31.00
30.60
31.45
32.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
51.50
UP
UP
51.00
50.20
52.00
53.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
134.00
DOWN
DOWN
133.90
133.40
136.00
137.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
167.80
UP
UP
166.50
167.00
168.10
168.90
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)*
170.00
UP
UP
169.00
169.80
170.90
171.50
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
59.40
UP
UP
58.50
58.00
59.50
60.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
40.90
UP
UP
40.40
39.50
41.50
42.20
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
30.80
UP
UP
30.10
29.70
31.90
32.75
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
23.10
DOWN
UP
22.85
22.85
23.34
23.55
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
137.40
UP
DOWN
136.80
137.00
138.00
138.50
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
11.60
UP
UP
11.44
11.19
11.70
11.85
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
21.31
UP
UP
21.07
20.60
21.32
21.44
Milaha (QNNS QD)
86.00
DOWN
FLAT
85.00
84.10
86.50
87.30
Banks and Financial Services
Banks and
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
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