The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index, Al Rayan Islamic Index, and several Qatar stocks. It identifies the following: - The QE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index have short-term neutral trends as the indexes took support at resistance levels and need to hold gains to proceed higher. - Widam Food Co. showed a sharp fall, breaching an important support level of QR50, indicating further downside potential to QR48. - United Development Co. has been underperforming along a descending trendline and its preferred near-term direction is downward toward support at QR21.16.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QE Index reversed from slipping further down and developed a
bullish engulfing candle pattern. Moreover, the index took support of
the ascending trendline and moved higher to surpass its resistance of
9,669.06, thus indicating a false breakdown. The index now needs to
hold on to this level in order to proceed ahead toward 9,700.0, which
is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. However, any
failure to do so may pull the index to test the ascending trendline.
The QERI Index moved higher marginally by around (0.08%) to close
the session at 2,783.59. The index opened gap-down but later moved
higher, forming a bullish engulfing candle pattern and penetrated just
above the resistance of 2,782.80. Accumulation is not recommended
until a further bullish confirmation occurs. If the index manages to
cling on to the 2,782.80 level on a closing basis, then it may stand a
chance of testing and surpassing both its moving averages.
WDAM fell sharply on Thursday and breached below its important
level near QR50.0. This breakdown of support has bearish
implications and provides a further downside target of QR48.0. The
RSI is moving down further in the oversold territory, while the MACD
is widening away further with the signal line in a negative manner
showing no immediate trend reversal signs. Thus the prognosis for
the near-term suggests a further downside for WDAM.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back
Al Meera Consumer Good Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD has been underperforming and is moving along the
descending trendline over the past few days. Yesterday, UDCD
formed a red Marubozu Candle pattern, indicating a likely
continuation of the downtrend. With the RSI pointing lower and the
MACD growing more bearish, it looks like UDCS’s preferred nearterm direction is toward the downside. The lower support comes at
the QR21.16 level, followed by the QR20.75 level.
GISS penetrated below the long-term ascending trendline support
near QR56.55, which is a negative sign for the stock. We believe the
stock after tagging an all-time high level a few days back, is in need of
some consolidation or correction before making its next move. With
the RSI moving lower and the MACD about to converge with the
signal line into the negative territory, it seems GISS may be heading
lower to test QR56.0. A close above the trendline may attract buyers.
MERS has been experiencing selling pressure over the past two days
since it failed to surpass the descending trendline. Moreover, MERS
breached below the ascending trendline yesterday and developed a
bearish Marubozu Candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of
the downmove. Although the stock is trading close to its immediate
support of QR136.0, it is unlikely that it may cling on to it and may
move lower to test QR135.0. Both indicators are moving down.
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2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
9,669.69
DOWN
DOWN
9,500.00
9,440.00
10,200.00
10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
2,783.59
DOWN
DOWN
2,700.00
2,600.00
2,950.00
3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
29.20
UP
UP
24.00
23.20
31.40
33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
67.00
DOWN
DOWN
63.90
62.40
84.20
87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
54.90
UP
UP
42.00
39.50
57.14
58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
66.70
DOWN
DOWN
65.00
64.30
78.50
79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
56.60
UP
UP
47.90
45.00
60.80
61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
61.50
UP
UP
58.50
57.00
62.30
63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
30.80
DOWN
DOWN
30.50
28.75
43.90
45.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)*
48.55
DOWN
DOWN
47.50
46.70
69.10
78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)*
136.10
UP
UP
129.90
128.50
138.50
140.15
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
152.90
DOWN
DOWN
144.10
142.00
175.20
176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
157.20
DOWN
DOWN
140.00
132.10
172.00
174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
56.30
UP
UP
30.50
29.50
58.50
60.15
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
31.40
UP
UP
20.36
20.00
31.80
33.50
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
26.90
UP
UP
22.80
19.50
29.25
29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)*
21.38
DOWN
DOWN
17.06
16.00
25.30
25.90
139.00
DOWN
DOWN
108.00
98.10
146.00
148.00
9.04
FLAT
DOWN
8.50
8.24
9.98
10.20
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
18.87
DOWN
DOWN
15.08
14.52
21.15
21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)
84.80
UP
UP
58.20
56.70
86.50
87.85
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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