This weekly market report provides an overview of the Bangladesh stock market from July 2nd to July 5th, 2012. It includes summaries of broad market measurements showing declines, the economic situation with increases in forex reserves and declines in interest rates, and reviews of the Dhaka Stock Exchange and Chittagong Stock Exchange with the DSE seeing declines in indexes and turnover. It also previews forthcoming corporate events and IPOs. The report is intended as a one stop shop for market facts and is produced by research analysts at a Bangladeshi bank and brokerage.
Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - EM Frontier Myanmar BasketBCV
Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - EM Frontier Myanmar Basket
Thematic Investments: Emerging Markets
Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia
Rationale
* After suffering decades under military regime, with her citizens having to cope with catastrophic, painful and whimsical change, Myanmar is now back on the world map and is finally embarking on the road to democracy. Former military junta leader General Than Shwe’s retirement plan has shifted senior military leaders into politics and replaced them in the army with their subordinates, transferring power from the military to the President, his ministers and Parliament. This transfer of power leads many old school Myanmar watcheers to believe that the least likely future outcome is a return to a military junta. The appointment of the reformist, clean President Thein Sein has been a perfect catalyst for change. President Thein Sein has succeeded in winning over political opponents and political leader and Nobel Laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi has embraced the reforms under way, stating her trust in him while her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has now registered for her to run for Parliament in April as a MP.
* The holding of acceptable by-elections, the further release of political prisoners and progress towards ending the war with ethnic rebels means a potential end to sanctions is on the horizon. After Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest in late 2010, last year Myanmar held its first national election in more than two decades. In November 2011, Hillary Clinton became the first US Secretary of state to visit Myanmar in more than 50 years and last month, Norway became the first European country to lift trade, investment and tourism sanctions on Myanmar when US senators McCain, Lieberman and McConnell were visiting as well. With high profile visits from US and European senior statesmen, the end of global sanctions may quickly follow and the task of transitioning Myanmar into a market based economy may soon begin in earnest.
* Simple geography anchors Myanmar’s importance as it sits between China and India which creates a massive crossroads between the two powerful emerging nations where 60% of global growth exists this year. Myanmar’s land mass of 676,578 sq km is about the size of France, which is twice the size of Vietnam and 30% larger than Thailand. She also has a coastline of 1,900 km which provides the country access to both the Bay of Bengal and the Adaman Sea. While the country has diverse and massive natural resources, Myanmar’s other important strength is her people; a population of around 60 million people who have an adult literacy rate at about 90% with the median age below 30 years. If you draw a 700-mile radius around Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, you encompass a population of 700 million people which is about 10% of the world’s population. With her common borders among five countries
Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - EM Frontier Myanmar BasketBCV
Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - EM Frontier Myanmar Basket
Thematic Investments: Emerging Markets
Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia
Rationale
* After suffering decades under military regime, with her citizens having to cope with catastrophic, painful and whimsical change, Myanmar is now back on the world map and is finally embarking on the road to democracy. Former military junta leader General Than Shwe’s retirement plan has shifted senior military leaders into politics and replaced them in the army with their subordinates, transferring power from the military to the President, his ministers and Parliament. This transfer of power leads many old school Myanmar watcheers to believe that the least likely future outcome is a return to a military junta. The appointment of the reformist, clean President Thein Sein has been a perfect catalyst for change. President Thein Sein has succeeded in winning over political opponents and political leader and Nobel Laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi has embraced the reforms under way, stating her trust in him while her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has now registered for her to run for Parliament in April as a MP.
* The holding of acceptable by-elections, the further release of political prisoners and progress towards ending the war with ethnic rebels means a potential end to sanctions is on the horizon. After Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest in late 2010, last year Myanmar held its first national election in more than two decades. In November 2011, Hillary Clinton became the first US Secretary of state to visit Myanmar in more than 50 years and last month, Norway became the first European country to lift trade, investment and tourism sanctions on Myanmar when US senators McCain, Lieberman and McConnell were visiting as well. With high profile visits from US and European senior statesmen, the end of global sanctions may quickly follow and the task of transitioning Myanmar into a market based economy may soon begin in earnest.
* Simple geography anchors Myanmar’s importance as it sits between China and India which creates a massive crossroads between the two powerful emerging nations where 60% of global growth exists this year. Myanmar’s land mass of 676,578 sq km is about the size of France, which is twice the size of Vietnam and 30% larger than Thailand. She also has a coastline of 1,900 km which provides the country access to both the Bay of Bengal and the Adaman Sea. While the country has diverse and massive natural resources, Myanmar’s other important strength is her people; a population of around 60 million people who have an adult literacy rate at about 90% with the median age below 30 years. If you draw a 700-mile radius around Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, you encompass a population of 700 million people which is about 10% of the world’s population. With her common borders among five countries
Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - MXEF50 Index (MSCI EM 50...
5 july2012
1. C O N T E N T S
C O N T E N T S
Broad Market Measurement
Economic Update
DSE & CSE Overview
Market Commentary
Weekly
Sector overview
Top Weekly Performer
DSE Top 100 Analysis
Forthcoming Corporate Events
Forthcoming IPO
Market
Market News
Report
ONE STOP SHOP OF MARKET FACTS
Md. Mahfuzur Rahman
Research Analyst
Bank |Pharmaceuticals |Mutual Fund
e‐mail: mrahman@lbsbd.com
Contact Info: +8801730359025
Istiak Ahmed
Research Analyst
istiak@lbsbd.com
2. From 02nd July to 05th July 2012 www.lbslbd.com
Broad Market Measurement Economic Update Turnover Contribution
5/7/2012 28/6/2012 Trend 03 July, 2012 30 June, 2012 Trend CSE
14%
Forward P/E 12.63 13.39 ▼ ‐1 Forex Reserve (In mn US$) 10451.4 10364.4 ▲ 86.98
Audited P/E 12.35 12.99 ▼ ‐1 Call Money Rate 14.11 14.97 ▲ 0.86
Price/ NAV 2.35 2.51 ▼ ‐0 Dollar Exchange Rate 81.81 81.83 ▼ ‐0.012
Market RSI 37.60 42.62 ▼ ‐5 Euro Exchange 103.85 102.50 ▲ 1.35
Market MFI 35.5 44.5 ▼ ‐9 Pound Exchange Rate 128.74 127.67 ▲ 1.07 DSE
86%
W eekly DSE Overview Index Open Close % Change Point Change
Turnover (In Mn) DGEN
3500 4900.00 DGEN 4573 4291 -6.17% -282.1
3000 4700.00 DSI 3878 3644 -6.02% -233.5
2500 4500.00 DSE 20 3529 3356 -4.9% -172.8
BDT in Mn
2000 4300.00
1500 4100.00
1000 3900.00 This Week Last Week % Change
500 3700.00
In Million BDT USD BDT USD
0 3500.00
Avg. Volume 38 - 46 - -16.55%
7/5/2012
7/4/2012
7/3/2012
7/2/2012
6/28/2012
6/27/2012
6/26/2012
6/25/2012
6/24/2012
6/21/2012
6/20/2012
6/19/2012
6/18/2012
6/17/2012
Avg.Turnover 1696 21 2113 26 -19.73%
Market Cap 2403689 29374 2491613 30449 -3.5%
W eekly CSE Overview Index Open Close % Change Point Change
Turnover (In Mn) CSCX
720 13500 CASPI 13738 13048 -5.0% -689
620 12500 CSCX 8727 8,279 -5.14% -449
520 11500 CSE 30 13738 13048 -5.02% -689
BDT IN MN
10500
420
9500
320 8500
This Week Last Week % Change
220 7500
In Million BDT USD BDT USD
120 6500
Avg. Volume 6 - 9 - -33%
7/5/2012
7/4/2012
7/3/2012
7/2/2012
6/28/2012
6/27/2012
6/26/2012
6/25/2012
6/24/2012
6/21/2012
6/20/2012
6/19/2012
6/18/2012
6/17/2012
6/14/2012
6/13/2012
6/12/2012
6/11/2012
6/10/2012
6/7/2012
Avg.Turnover 250 3 411 5 -39%
Market Cap 1805257 22061 1869355 22844 -3.4%
W eekly Market Observation
Market declines as World Bank terminates Padma bridge loan
The Dhaka stock market went down on the news of loan termination of Padma Bridge by World Bank and ADB. Moreover, liquidity
crisis was another trauma for the market over the last few weeks, which eventually declined the investors’ confidence sharply
confronting the immense uncertainty in the market. At end of the week, market gauge, DGEN, closed at 4291 level or 6.17% lower
than that of previous week. The weekly average turnover and volume declined by 16.5% and 19.73% respectively during this week.
Conversely, economic indicators are appearing in ameliorating figures. At end of the week, Forex reserve stood at $10451.4 mn as
against $10364.4 mn in previous week. Call money rate stood at 14.11% as against 14.97% in last week. In addition, the point‐to‐
point inflation declined to 8.56% in June compared to 9.15% in May.
All of the sectors recorded loss during this week. Among the major sectors, Non‐bank Financial Institution (NBFI) was the top losing
sector recording 7.3% loss, followed by Fuel and Power 7.3%, Bank 5.6%, Pharmaceutical 4.6% and Telecommunication 3.3%
respectively.
Among the listed stocks, only eight scrips were in green zone. The top losing scrips were
ASIAPACINS, MERCINS, RNSPIN, JUTESPINN, IMAMBUTTON and RAHIMAFOOD respectively.
‐Md. Mahfuzur Rahman
Md Mahfuzur Rahman
6. Weekly Market Report
F orthcoming Corporate Events
DECLARED DIVIDEND
Ticker Declared Dividend EPS NAV Cash Flow Record Date
PROGRESLIF
RUPALILIFE
18% Stock
14% Stock
9‐Jul‐12
9‐Jul‐12
BEXIMCO 25%Stock 23.73 118.71 3.19 23‐Jul‐12
PADMALIFE 5%Cash ,25%Stock 15‐Jul‐12
GBBPOWER nil 2.57 25.09 2.59 15‐Jul‐12
F orthcoming IPO
Company Proposed Ordinary Face Value Offer EPS NAV Subscription Date
Share Value
Envoy Textiles Limited 30,000,000 10 30 4.42 37.62 29 July ‐ 02 Aug, 2012
Summit Purbanchol Power Co. Ltd. 30,000,000 10 45 5.18 20.38 15 July ‐ 19 July 2012
Argon Denims Limited 30,000,000 10 44 5.46 20.71 Sep 09‐ Sep 13 2012
Shurwid Industries Ltd 14,000,000 10 ‐ 0.09 24.86 NA
Janata Bank Ltd. 10,000,000 100 1000 78.02 341.84 NA
Meghna Insurance Company 900,000 100 100 7.33 69.17 NA
Limited
STS Holdings Limited 30,000,000 10 125 0.31 15.43 NA
Bangladesh National Insurance 900,000 100 150 29.21 206.94 NA
Company Limited
RIGHT OFFER
Ticker Right Proposal Record Date Premium
CENTRALINS 1R:2 Proposed 5
EASTLAND 1R:3 Proposed 20
ISNLTD 1R:1 Proposed 10
LEGACYFOOT 1R:1 Proposed 10
PHENIXINS 1R:4 Proposed 10
PLFSL 1R:2 Proposed 15
ISLAMICFIN 1R:3 Proposed -
NHFIL 1R:2 Proposed ‐
PHOENIXFIN 1R:10 Proposed ‐
REPUBLIC 1R:1 Proposed 5
ARAMITCEM 1R:1 Proposed 5
IFIC 3R:4 Proposed 10
BRACBANK 1R:2 Proposed 15
PURABIGEN 2R: 1 Proposed ‐
DELTASPINN 2R: 1 Proposed 5
MIDASFIN 2R:3 Proposed ‐
RUPALILIFE 1R:1 Proposed 20
11
AN LBSL RESEARCH PUBLICATION
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Disclaimer
This document (“the Report”) is published by LankaBangla Securities Ltd (“LBSL”) for information only of its clients. All
information and analysis in this Report have been compiled from and analyzed on the basis of LBSL’s own research of
publicly available documentation and information. LBSL has prepared the Report solely for informational purposes and
consistent with Rules and regulations of SEC. The information provided in the Report is not intended to, and does not
encompass all the factors to be considered in a best execution analysis and related order routing determinations. LBSL does
not represent, warrant, or guarantee that the Report is accurate. LBSL disclaims liability for any
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information and analysis provided in the Report may be impacted by market data system outages or errors, both internal and
external, and affected by frequent movement of market and events. Certain assumptions have been made in preparing the
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LBSL Research Team
Md. Ashaduduzaman Riadh Senior Research Analyst & In-Charge Research & Analysis Dept
Analyst Industry Designation E-mail
Md. Ashaduzaman Riadh Market/Cement/Tannery/Textile/Ins Senior RA ashaduzaman@lbsbd.com
Md. Tareq Ibrahim Bank/NBFI Research Analyst tareqibrahim@lbsbd.com
Mahfuzur Rahman Bank/Pharmaceuticals/Mutual Fund Research Analyst mrahman@lbsbd.com
Rajib Kumar Das Power/Ins Research Analyst rkdas@lbsbd.com
Maksudul Haque Chowdhury Ceramic/Services Research Analyst maksudul.haque@lbsbd.com
Istiak Ahmed Market/Research Support Research Analyst istiak@lbsbd.com
Ms. Tanzina Ahmed - Research Analyst tanzina@lbsbd.com
Ch dh d
Institutional & Foreign Trade Execution Department
Rehan Muhammad Assistant Manager rehan@lbsbd.com/rmuhammad1@bloomberg .net
LankaBangla Securities Limited
Research & Analysis Department
Corporate Office
A.A. Bhaban (Level‐5)
23 Motijheel C/A
Dhaka‐1000, Bangladesh
Phone: +880‐2‐9513794 (Ext‐118)
Fax: +880‐2‐9563902
Website: www.lbsbd.com
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