Fundamental Analysis & Financial Analyst Recommandations - China Railw…

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Fundamental Analysis & Financial Analyst Recommandations - China Railw…

  1. 1. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not beviewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of anoffer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Fundamental Analysis & Analyst Recommendations China Railway November 2012 Q M S Advisors . . Q.M.S Advisors | Avenue de la Gare, 1 1003 Lausanne | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  2. 2. Valuation Measures I/II Market Capitalization & Asset Liability data Total Revenue EBITDA Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings ratio Rev. Growth EBITDA Growth Market Daily Minority Cash and Enterprise Est. Tot. Est. P/E Est. Est. Est. Est. S&P LT Moodys LT Capitalization (in Volume Total Common Total Debt Preferred Interest Equivalents Value Tot. Rev. - Rev. - Tr. Est. Tot. Est. EBITDA - Est. EBITDA - Est. EBITDA - Est. EPS - Est. EPS - Est. EPS - P/E Ratio - Ratio - Tr. Est. P/E Est. P/E Revenue Revenue Est. EBITDA EBITDA Est. EBITDA Credit S&P LT Credit Credit Moodys LT Credit Currency mio USD) (M) Shares (M) (USD) Stock (USD) (USD) (USD) (USD) LFY 12M Rev. - 2013 Est. Tot. Rev. - 2014 EBITDA - LFY Tr. 12M 2013 2014 EPS - LFY Tr. 12M 2013 2014 LFY 12M Ratio - 2013 Ratio - 2014 Growth - 1Y Growth - 5Y Growth - 1Y Growth - 5Y Margin - Rating - Rating Date Rating Rating DateS&P 500 INDEX USD 12742083 1802.0005 1092 1092 201 211 211 99.16 103.92 103.92 13.92 13.92 13.28 13.28 19.03Euro Stoxx 50 Pr EUR 2318722 5287.7918 4552 4552 751 766 766 135.10 295.91 295.91 29.23 14.40 13.35 13.35 20.40NIKKEI 225 JPY 2075503 474.32862 223 223 29 46 46 4.82 6.94 6.94 0.29 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.14FTSE 100 INDEX GBP 2540149 11218.591 9361 9361 1570 1633 1633 674.86 814.88 814.88 21.52 19.23 17.83 17.83 26.15SWISS MARKET INDEX CHF 889558 10190.951 3889 3889 827 790 790 366.65 514.50 514.50 20.20 17.94 14.40 14.40 22.55S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX CAD 1640651 16521.972 7727 7727 1888 1928 1928 803.64 843.71 843.71 15.14 15.14 14.42 14.42 25.01S&P/ASX 200 INDEX AUD 1247722 6127.9058 2904 2904 653 698 698 268.14 345.51 345.51 17.68 14.83 13.72 13.72 24.12HANG SENG INDEX HKD 1599195 3082.598 1448 1448 345 360 360 251.85 246.18 246.18 1.40 1.49 1.43 1.43 3.09MSCI EM USD 7240012 1403.2809 993 993 181 186 186 79.50 86.75 86.75 12.44 12.72 11.40 11.40 18.68MTR CORP HKD 21852.39 1179 5785 4.39 0.00 0.02 2.43 23.63 4312 4439 4578 4796 2535 2483 1762 1762 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.20 1.75 - 2.42 2.42 1.71 4.16 4.05 1.60 7.22 AAA 16.12.2010 Aa1 11.11.2010CSR CORP LTD - H HKD 10580.47 16607 11840 3.49 0.00 0.71 2.98 10.89 10260 10555 11139 12669 943 949 - - 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 2.19 - 2.18 1.89 3.10 3.67 6.18 4.72 1.16 - - - -CHINA RAILWAY GROUP LTD-H HKD 9988.65 36077 21300 16.85 0.00 1.20 7.78 23.75 57056 54009 58974 63354 2448 2530 2556 2556 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 1.37 1.34 1.34 1.19 -0.39 2.96 2.69 3.45 0.60 - - - -CHINA HIGH SPEED TRANSMISSIO HKD 457.15 7551 1363 1.06 0.00 0.02 0.28 1.28 919 933 892 931 189 - 179 179 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 1.00 - 1.03 0.86 -0.47 4.23 -3.19 6.05 - - - - -CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION-H HKD 10889.32 17264 12338 12.99 0.00 0.13 10.39 10.17 57199 53861 59688 64672 2816 2876 2941 2941 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.09 1.40 - 1.33 1.20 -0.36 - 6.61 4.44 0.69 - - - -GUANGSHEN RAILWAY CO LTD-H HKD 2800.41 2129 7084 0.45 0.00 0.01 0.65 2.00 1895 1883 1882 1992 514 461 438 438 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 1.21 1.18 1.41 1.28 1.15 1.01 1.39 3.33 3.16 - - - -ZHUZHOU CSR TIMES ELECTRIC-H HKD 3175.61 1262 1084 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.28 2.55 913 913 899 1086 181 181 - - 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.17 2.16 2.16 2.38 1.79 2.76 5.52 1.38 4.38 2.56 - - - -CHINA ZHONGWANG HOLDINGS LTD HKD 2085.65 2824 5406 1.08 0.00 0.00 1.53 1.94 1330 1666 1726 2043 292 398 - - 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.97 - 0.97 0.87 -0.27 - -6.26 1.75 3.08 - - - - Q.M.S Advisors | Av. de la Gare, 1 | Lausanne, CH | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | +41 (0)21 711 40 89 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  3. 3. Valuation Measures II/II Price to Book Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Cash Flow Ratio Enterprise Value to EBITDA Ratio Price to Earnings Ratio Estimated Dividend Yield Target 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 %D to SpotS&P 500 INDEX 2.04 2.04 1.86 1.70 2.04 1.26 1.26 1.22 1.17 1.26 9.06 9.06 8.57 8.29 9.06 8.56 8.56 8.00 7.45 8.56 13.28 13.28 12.01 10.74 13.28 2.30 2.30 2.49 2.69 2.30 1601.7 16.1%Euro Stoxx 50 Pr 1.10 1.10 1.04 0.98 1.10 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.68 5.02 5.02 4.78 4.44 5.02 6.90 6.90 6.62 6.26 6.90 10.53 10.53 9.65 8.75 10.53 4.34 4.34 4.80 5.16 4.34 2740.1 11.6%NIKKEI 225 1.06 1.06 0.99 0.93 1.06 0.49 0.49 0.46 0.46 0.49 6.31 6.31 5.72 5.44 6.31 10.36 10.36 6.14 5.36 10.36 15.76 15.76 13.23 10.64 15.76 2.38 2.38 2.40 2.73 2.38 9784.9 13.0%FTSE 100 INDEX 1.60 1.60 1.48 1.38 1.60 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.92 0.98 7.44 7.44 6.80 5.50 7.44 6.87 6.87 6.39 5.98 6.87 11.23 11.23 10.29 9.39 11.23 4.13 4.13 4.33 4.64 4.13 6351.1 10.1%SWISS MARKET INDEX 2.14 2.14 2.00 1.85 2.14 1.81 1.81 1.71 1.62 1.81 11.82 11.82 10.31 9.10 11.82 12.89 12.89 11.89 11.07 12.89 13.68 13.68 12.39 11.22 13.68 3.53 3.53 3.84 4.21 3.53 7273.6 8.8%S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 1.67 1.67 1.54 1.44 1.67 1.58 1.58 1.47 1.38 1.58 8.52 8.52 7.62 7.07 8.52 8.57 8.57 7.41 6.80 8.57 14.44 14.44 12.52 11.36 14.44 3.05 3.05 3.22 3.29 3.05 14199.6 16.5%S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 1.65 1.65 1.56 1.47 1.65 1.57 1.57 1.46 1.39 1.57 9.67 9.67 8.78 6.58 9.67 8.78 8.78 7.73 7.15 8.78 13.19 13.19 11.80 10.83 13.19 4.95 4.95 5.31 5.71 4.95 4732.3 8.0%HANG SENG INDEX 1.37 1.37 1.26 1.16 1.37 1.89 1.89 1.75 1.62 1.89 7.09 7.09 6.54 6.23 7.09 8.57 8.57 7.78 7.14 8.57 11.11 11.11 10.25 9.30 11.11 3.49 3.49 3.74 4.07 3.49 23191.6 9.4%MSCI EM 1.51 1.51 1.36 1.24 1.51 1.00 1.00 0.93 0.87 1.00 7.12 7.12 6.46 5.14 7.12 7.53 7.53 6.86 6.23 7.53 11.40 11.40 9.99 9.01 11.40 2.89 2.89 3.07 3.42 2.89 1136.6 14.9%MTR CORP 1.34 1.24 1.19 1.16 5.22 4.77 4.56 4.24 22.67 27.21 16.48 16.40 13.72 13.41 12.90 12.07 17.80 18.73 18.74 16.25 2.32 2.66 2.71 2.85 30.42 4.0%CSR CORP LTD - H 2.55 2.18 1.96 1.78 1.20 0.81 0.76 0.67 0.59 0.58 25.99 14.64 9.47 8.13 12.19 11.21 9.77 8.36 6.69 16.45 16.93 14.64 12.59 11.55 1.23 1.62 1.89 1.98 1.73 6.01 -7.1%CHINA RAILWAY GROUP LTD-H 0.99 0.91 0.82 0.74 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 36.60 8.49 9.18 7.07 11.04 9.29 8.48 7.90 12.57 10.40 9.20 8.19 7.84 1.49 1.58 1.73 1.95 2.43 4.12 0.7%CHINA HIGH SPEED TRANSMISSIO 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.36 8.36 1.43 2.15 2.75 2.46 6.39 7.13 6.60 6.64 6.52 3.76 7.97 6.65 6.45 5.36 6.46 2.78 3.40 2.82 2.87 2.49 -4.0%CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION-H 1.26 1.15 1.03 0.93 0.83 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.14 41.33 4.49 3.40 4.15 3.46 3.14 2.87 3.18 11.77 10.33 9.27 8.28 6.96 2.19 1.75 1.95 2.22 4.23 8.66 5.3%GUANGSHEN RAILWAY CO LTD-H 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 1.21 1.20 1.13 1.07 5.05 5.47 5.05 4.70 3.94 4.57 4.23 3.70 8.38 10.95 9.92 7.97 5.11 3.83 4.16 5.30 2.72 3.5%ZHUZHOU CSR TIMES ELECTRIC-H 3.71 3.20 2.73 2.37 2.14 2.73 2.84 2.35 2.00 1.69 23.00 21.11 15.69 13.08 13.31 12.96 13.72 10.90 9.09 7.84 16.20 18.48 13.91 11.72 10.60 2.23 1.81 2.35 2.93 3.78 21.25 -6.4%CHINA ZHONGWANG HOLDINGS LTD 0.79 0.74 0.66 1.35 0.97 0.82 13.35 7.51 6.77 Q.M.S Advisors | Av. de la Gare, 1 | Lausanne, CH | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | +41 (0)21 711 40 89 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  4. 4. MTR CORP CSR CORP LTD-H CHINA RAIL GR-H CHINA HIGH-SPEED CHINA RAIL CN-H GUANGSHEN RAIL-H ZHUZHOU CSR CHINA ZHONGWANGLatest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/201152-Week High 30.30 6.86 4.41 5.63 8.83 3.16 24.40 3.4252-Week High Date 26.10.2012 12.11.2012 12.11.2012 10.02.2012 12.11.2012 24.02.2012 07.11.2012 27.02.201252-Week Low 23.60 4.05 2.20 2.07 4.00 2.16 14.94 2.4852-Week Low Date 24.11.2011 09.01.2012 25.11.2011 31.07.2012 09.01.2012 06.09.2012 09.01.2012 18.11.2011Daily Volume 1178927 16607000 36076850 7550888 17264000 2129242 1262126 2823600 Current Price (11/dd/yy) 29.25 6.47 4.09 2.60 8.23 2.63 22.70 2.99 52-Week High % Change -3.5% -5.7% -7.3% -53.8% -6.8% -16.8% -7.0% -12.6% 52-Week Low % Change 23.9% 59.8% 85.9% 25.6% 105.8% 21.8% 51.9% 20.6%Total Common Shares (M) 5784.9 11840.0 21299.9 1362.7 12337.5 7083.5 1084.3 5406.3 Market Capitalization 169366.9 82004.0 77417.0 3543.1 84397.7 21704.6 24612.6 16164.9Total Debt 34046.0 27040.8 130576.0 8187.8 100663.6 3478.6 769.9 8356.2Preferred Stock - - - - - - - -Minority Interest 186.0 5526.3 9330.0 149.5 970.4 52.8 121.0 -Cash and Equivalents 18852.0 23104.3 60314.0 2174.6 80520.6 5052.8 2158.8 11853.5 Enterprise Value 183131.9 84409.5 184037.7 9895.6 78847.4 15512.2 19797.4 15058.7 Valuation Average MedianTotal Revenue LFY 33423.0 79517.0 442216.0 7120.7 443319.3 14690.8 7079.1 10305.7 129709.0 24056.9 LTM 34408.0 81803.7 418599.0 7230.7 417448.9 14596.7 7079.1 12909.4 124259.4 24502.3 CY+1 35477.9 86330.8 457078.5 6915.1 462610.0 14583.3 6964.4 13377.0 135417.1 25030.6 CY+2 37168.9 98192.9 491024.4 7212.8 501239.8 15440.4 8419.8 15836.0 146816.9 26502.5EV/Total Revenue LFY 5.0x 1.0x 0.4x 1.4x 0.2x 0.8x 1.9x 1.5x 1.5x 1.2x LTM 4.8x 1.0x 0.4x 1.3x 0.2x 0.8x 1.9x 1.2x 1.5x 1.1x CY+1 5.2x 0.8x 0.3x 1.1x 0.2x 1.1x 2.6x - 1.6x 1.1x CY+2 5.0x 0.7x 0.3x 1.0x 0.2x 1.0x 2.1x - 1.5x 1.0xEBITDA LFY 19648.0 7310.0 18977.0 1463.3 21822.9 3980.0 1402.0 2265.0 9608.5 5645.0 LTM 19247.0 7352.0 19609.0 - 22290.2 3571.8 1402.0 3084.7 10936.7 7352.0 CY+1 13657.2 7528.4 19813.3 1388.7 22792.9 3397.6 1443.1 - 10003.0 7528.4 CY+2 14192.9 8642.6 21702.4 1499.7 25072.2 3665.3 1815.5 - 10941.5 8642.6EV/EBITDA LFY 8.5x 10.9x 8.5x 6.6x 4.1x 2.9x 9.8x 6.7x 7.3x 7.6x LTM 8.7x 10.9x 8.2x - 4.0x 3.2x 9.8x 4.9x 7.1x 8.2x CY+1 13.5x 8.7x 7.7x 5.5x 3.9x 4.7x 12.7x - 8.1x 7.7x CY+2 13.1x 7.6x 7.3x 5.0x 3.6x 4.2x 9.9x - 7.2x 7.3xEPS LFY 2.55 0.33 0.32 0.38 0.68 0.26 1.09 0.20 0.73 0.35 LTM 2.16 0.31 0.31 0.27 0.61 0.23 1.09 0.32 0.66 0.31 CY+1 1.56 0.31 0.32 0.26 0.64 0.19 0.99 0.32 0.57 0.32 CY+2 1.56 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.71 0.21 1.31 0.36 0.65 0.36P/E LFY 13.5x 17.0x 10.6x 7.8x 10.8x 9.4x 16.7x 7.6x 11.7x 10.7x LTM - - 10.4x - - 9.1x 16.7x - 12.1x 10.4x CY+1 18.7x 16.9x 10.4x 8.0x 10.3x 10.9x 18.5x 7.5x 12.7x 10.7x CY+2 18.7x 14.6x 9.2x 6.7x 9.3x 9.9x 13.9x 6.8x 11.1x 9.6xRevenue Growth 1 Year 13.2% 24.0% (3.1%) (3.7%) (2.8%) 8.9% 21.4% (2.1%) 7.0% 3.4% 5 Year 32.2% 28.5% 23.0% 32.8% - 7.9% 42.8% - 27.8% 30.3%EBITDA Growth 1 Year 31.4% 47.9% 20.9% (24.7%) 51.3% 10.8% 10.7% (48.5%) 12.4% 15.8% 5 Year 12.4% 36.6% 26.7% 46.9% 34.4% 25.8% 33.9% 13.6% 28.8% 30.3%EBITDA Margin LTM 55.9% 9.0% 4.7% - 5.3% 24.5% 19.8% 23.9% 20.4% 19.8% CY+1 38.5% 8.7% 4.3% 20.1% 4.9% 23.3% 20.7% - 17.2% 20.1% CY+2 38.2% 8.8% 4.4% 20.8% 5.0% 23.7% 21.6% - 17.5% 20.8% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Average MedianTotal Debt / Equity % 26.4% 119.9% 181.7% 109.6% 155.5% 13.7% 14.5% 53.3% 84.3% 81.4%Total Debt / Capital % 20.9% 49.1% 61.7% 51.8% 60.5% 12.1% 12.4% 34.8% 37.9% 41.9%Total Debt / EBITDA 1.931x 3.136x 7.676x - 4.627x 0.975x 0.549x 3.991x 3.3x 3.1xNet Debt / EBITDA 0.705x 1.478x 4.897x - 1.024x -0.542x -0.991x 0.672x 1.0x 0.7xEBITDA / Int. Expense 16.525x 6.888x 2.989x 3.761x 5.926x 22.844x 42.973x 4.884x 13.3x 6.4x Credit RatingsS&P LT Credit Rating AAA - - - - - - -S&P LT Credit Rating Date 16.12.2010 - - - - - - -Moodys LT Credit Rating Aa1 - - - - - - -Moodys LT Credit Rating Date 11.11.2010 - - - - - - - Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  5. 5. 13.11.2012MTR Corp LtdMTR Corporation Limited provides public transport services in Hong Kong. The Price/VolumeCompany owns and operates the Mass Transit Railway. The Company also develops, 35 12.0 Msells, and manages residential and commercial properties. In addition, MTR 30 10.0 Mleases commercial facilities and provides services along the Railway, such asadvertising, telecommunication facilities, and provides consultancy services. 25 8.0 M 20 6.0 M Valuation Analysis 15Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 4.0 M 10LTM as of: 01/yy 5 2.0 M52-Week High (26.10.2012) 30.30 0 .0 M52-Week Low (24.11.2011) 23.60 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12Daily Volume 1178927.00 Current Price (11/dd/yy) 29.25 Market Data 52-Week High % Change -3.47% Dividend Yield 2.60 52-Week Low % Change 23.94% Beta 0.71 % 52 Week Price Range High/Low 88.06% Equity Float 1354.88Shares Out 08.11.2012 5790.3 Short Int - Market Capitalization 169366.94 1 Yr Total Return 20.04%Total Debt 34046.00 YTD Return 19.56%Preferred Stock 0.0 Adjusted BETA 0.707Minority Interest 186.0 Analyst Recs 16Cash and Equivalents 18852.00 Consensus Rating 3.875Enterprise Value 183131.94 Average Daily Trading Volume Relative Stock Price Performance Average Volume 5 Day 229805766 HK EQUITY YTD Change - Average Volume 30 Day 304352566 HK EQUITY YTD % CHANGE - Average Volume 3 Month 2784894 Fiscal Year Ended LTM-4Q LTM FY+1 FY+2 FQ+1 FQ+2 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 31.12.2011 01/yy 01/yy 12/12 Y 12/13 Y - - Total Revenue 10690 17628 18797 29518 33423 - - 35478 37169 - - TEV/Revenue 18.17x 7.47x 9.63x 6.16x 4.90x - - 5.20x 5.01x - - EBITDA 15383.0 15971.0 14774.0 14956.0 16411.0 - - 13657.2 14192.9 - - TEV/EBITDA 12.62x 8.25x 12.25x 12.16x 9.97x - - 13.41x 12.90x - - Net Income 15180.0 8284.0 9639.0 12059.0 14716.0 - - 9023 9187 - - P/E 10.55x 12.22x 15.86x 13.48x 9.86x - - 18.73x 18.74x - - Profitability S&P Issuer RatingsEBITDA 19648.00 Long-Term Rating Date 16.12.2010EBIT 13236.00 Long-Term Rating AAAOperating Margin 39.60% Long-Term Outlook STABLEPretax Margin 52.86% Short-Term Rating Date 09.10.2009Return on Assets 6.31% Short-Term Rating A-1+Return on Common Equity 9.60% Credit RatiosReturn on Capital 8.13% EBITDA/Interest Exp. 16.52Asset Turnover 0.17% (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest Exp. 8.08Margin Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA 0.70Gross Margin - Total Debt/EBITDA 1.93EBITDA Margin 55.9% ReferenceEBIT Margin 37.3% Total Debt/Equity 26.4%Net Income Margin 44.0% Total Debt/Capital 20.9%Structure Asset Turnover 0.17Current Ratio 1.10 Net Fixed Asset Turnover 0.25Quick Ratio 0.86 Accounts receivable turnover-days 34.23Debt to Assets 17.21% Inventory Days -Tot Debt to Common Equity 26.42% Accounts Payable Turnover Day -Accounts Receivable Turnover 10.69 Cash Conversion Cycle -Inventory Turnover -Price/ Cash Flow Sales/Revenue/Turnover 40.00 40000.0 35.00 35000.0 30.00 30000.0 25.00 25000.0 20.00 20000.0 15.00 15000.0 10.00 10000.0 5.00 5000.0 0.00 0.0 02.01.2009 02.07.2009 02.01.2010 02.07.2010 02.01.2011 02.07.2011 02.01.2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  6. 6. 13.11.2012MTR Corp LtdHoldings By: All Holder Name Portfolio Name Source Amt Held % Out Latest Chg File Dt Inst TypeFINANCIAL SECRETARY n/a Co File 4434552207 76.66 - 31.12.2010 GovernmentEXCHANGE FUND n/a Co File 32325625 0.56 - 31.12.2010 n/aBLACKROCK FUND ADVIS Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 21204583 0.37 (27500) 08.03.2012 Investment AdvisorABERDEEN ASSET MANAG Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 15058485 0.26 2262000 31.01.2012 Investment AdvisorVANGUARD GROUP INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 13992587 0.24 336500 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorSTATE STREET GLOBAL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 12901741 0.22 159757 30.06.2011 Investment AdvisorINVESCO LTD Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 10772105 0.19 361500 09.03.2012 Investment AdvisorJP MORGAN ASSET MGMT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 6781500 0.12 - 14.01.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerGAM INTERNATIONAL MA Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 5509337 0.1 (2278000) 31.01.2012 Investment AdvisorFIDELITY MANAGEMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 3439916 0.06 (2708500) 31.01.2012 Investment AdvisorNISSAY ASSET MANAGEM Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 2743500 0.05 2000 21.11.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerSWISSCANTO FONDSLEIT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 2725991 0.05 (60000) 30.12.2011 Investment AdvisorNEW JERSEY DIVISION Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 2699684 0.05 (1351882) 31.12.2011 Pension Fund (ERISA)BLACKROCK GROUP LIMI Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 2200093 0.04 (22000) 08.03.2012 Investment AdvisorRBC GLOBAL ASSET MAN Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 2034500 0.04 1634500 31.10.2011 Investment AdvisorHI ASSET MANAGEMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1590000 0.03 - 30.09.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerSKANDIA GLOBAL FUNDS Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1541524 0.03 - 31.10.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerAXA ROSENBERG INTL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1400500 0.02 662500 30.09.2011 Investment AdvisorFRANK RUSSELL TRUST Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1276666 0.02 (82106) 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorAMUNDI LUXEMBOURG SA Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1089500 0.02 13500 30.12.2011 Investment Advisor Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Weighting Change Target Price Date DateEVA Dimensions TEAM COVERAGE buy 5 U #N/A N/A Not Provided 13.03.2012Credit Suisse CUSSON LEUNG outperform 5 M 32 Not Provided 09.03.2012CLSA Asia Pacific Markets DANIE SCHUTTE outperform 5 U 32 Not Provided 09.03.2012AMTD Financial Planning Limited KENNY TANG SING HING buy 5 N 29 Not Provided 09.03.2012Morgan Stanley PRAVEEN K CHOUDHARY Overwt/In-Line 5 M 31 12 month 08.03.2012JPMorgan BENJAMIN LO neutral 3 M 25 9 month 08.03.2012Jefferies JULIAN BU hold 3 M 27 12 month 08.03.2012Citi MICHAEL BEER buy 5 M 31 Not Provided 08.03.2012Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. JONAS KAN outperform 5 M 29 Not Provided 08.03.2012Goldman Sachs SIMON CHEUNG neutral/neutral 3 M 29 12 month 27.02.2012GuoSen Securities Co Ltd MICHAEL NG buy 5 N 30 12 month 20.02.2012DBS Vickers JEFF YAU buy 5 M 31 12 month 27.01.2012Deutsche Bank TONY TSANG not rated #N/A N/A M #N/A N/A Not Provided 01.03.2011Credit Suisse FELIX RUSLI outperform 5 M 36 Not Provided 21.02.2011Piper Jaffray HONGBO B LU neutral 3 M 33 12 month 11.08.2010Kim Eng Securities IVAN CHEUNG hold 3 M 31 12 month 10.03.2010 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  7. 7. 13.11.2012CSR Corp LtdCSR Corp Ltd provides a wide range of rolling stock products and services. The Price/VolumeCompanys products include locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, 10 180.0 MMUs, rapid transit vehicles and key related components. 9 160.0 M 8 140.0 M 7 120.0 M 6 100.0 M 5 Valuation Analysis 80.0 M 4Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 3 60.0 M 2 40.0 MLTM as of: 09/yy 1 20.0 M52-Week High (12.11.2012) 6.86 0 .0 M52-Week Low (09.01.2012) 4.05 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12Daily Volume 16607000.00 Current Price (11/dd/yy) 6.47 Market Data 52-Week High % Change -5.69% Dividend Yield 3.46 52-Week Low % Change 59.75% Beta 1.69 % 52 Week Price Range High/Low 97.86% Equity Float 1842.31Shares Out 30.09.2012 2024.0 Short Int - Market Capitalization 82003.95 1 Yr Total Return 38.78%Total Debt 27040.77 YTD Return 51.29%Preferred Stock 0.0 Adjusted BETA 1.689Minority Interest 5526.3 Analyst Recs 25Cash and Equivalents 23104.34 Consensus Rating 3.720Enterprise Value 84409.48 Average Daily Trading Volume Relative Stock Price Performance Average Volume 5 Day 186849501766 HK EQUITY YTD Change - Average Volume 30 Day 196838301766 HK EQUITY YTD % CHANGE - Average Volume 3 Month 18957320 Fiscal Year Ended LTM-4Q LTM FY+1 FY+2 FQ+1 FQ+2 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 31.12.2011 12/yy 09/yy 12/12 Y 12/13 Y 12/12 Q4 03/13 Q1 Total Revenue 26803.5 35092.8 45620.8 64132.4 79517.0 0.0 51192.4 86330.8 98192.9 - - TEV/Revenue - 1.37x 1.49x 1.55x 0.85x #DIV/0! 0.00x 0.76x 0.67x - - EBITDA 1691.7 2788.2 3293.5 4943.7 7310.0 0.0 1091.3 7528.4 8642.6 - - TEV/EBITDA - 17.27x 20.63x 20.10x 9.27x 0.00x 0.00x 11.21x 9.77x - - Net Income 613.0 1384.2 1678.2 2526.3 3864.2 0.0 2187.2 4063.4 4832.1 - - P/E - 27.45x 40.07x 35.45x 13.28x 0.00x 0.00x 16.93x 14.64x - - Profitability S&P Issuer RatingsEBITDA 7310.01 Long-Term Rating Date -EBIT 5772.40 Long-Term Rating -Operating Margin 7.26% Long-Term Outlook -Pretax Margin 6.84% Short-Term Rating Date -Return on Assets 3.82% Short-Term Rating -Return on Common Equity 14.54% Credit RatiosReturn on Capital 9.45% EBITDA/Interest Exp. 6.89Asset Turnover 0.84% (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest Exp. 1.14Margin Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA 1.48Gross Margin 18.7% Total Debt/EBITDA 3.14EBITDA Margin 9.0% ReferenceEBIT Margin 6.9% Total Debt/Equity 119.9%Net Income Margin 4.9% Total Debt/Capital 49.1%Structure Asset Turnover 0.84Current Ratio 1.07 Net Fixed Asset Turnover 3.32Quick Ratio 0.69 Accounts receivable turnover-days 145.92Debt to Assets 29.14% Inventory Days 102.50Tot Debt to Common Equity 119.85% Accounts Payable Turnover Day 145.14Accounts Receivable Turnover 2.51 Cash Conversion Cycle 60.45Inventory Turnover 3.57Price/ Cash Flow Sales/Revenue/Turnover 1.20 70000.0 60000.0 1.00 50000.0 0.80 40000.0 0.60 30000.0 0.40 20000.0 10000.0 0.20 0.0 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  8. 8. 13.11.2012CSR Corp LtdHoldings By: All Holder Name Portfolio Name Source Amt Held % Out Latest Chg File Dt Inst TypeJOHO PARTNERS LP n/a EXCH 302079370 14.92 - 06.03.2012 Hedge Fund ManagerDEUTSCHE BANK AG n/a EXCH 182422633 9.01 - 09.02.2012 Investment AdvisorSOCIAL SECURITY FUND n/a EXCH 181210000 8.95 - 23.12.2011 Pension Fund (ERISA)DEUTSCHE BANK AG n/a Short (155118944) -7.66 - 29.02.2012 Investment AdvisorMORGAN STANLEY #N/A N/A EXCH 114562654 5.66 (3557400) 08.03.2012 Investment AdvisorMORGAN STANLEY n/a Short (114008368) -5.63 - 08.03.2012 Investment AdvisorWELLINGTON MANAGEMEN n/a EXCH 107180180 5.3 - 17.02.2012 Investment AdvisorBAILLIE GIFFORD AND n/a EXCH 101793000 5.03 - 17.08.2011 Investment AdvisorGE ASSET MANAGEMENT n/a EXCH 100828146 4.98 - 29.11.2010 Investment AdvisorJP MORGAN CHASE & CO n/a EXCH 98439911 4.86 - 01.02.2012 Investment AdvisorMAPS INVESTMENT MANA n/a EXCH 98388000 4.86 - 05.09.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerVANGUARD GROUP INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 70577278 3.49 (302000) 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorMATTHEWS INTERNATION Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 51450000 2.54 - 30.12.2011 Investment AdvisorGUARDIAN INVESTOR SE Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 30283000 1.5 - 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorJP MORGAN CHASE & CO n/a Short (29769114) -1.47 - 01.02.2012 Investment AdvisorSCHRODER INVESTMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 27544000 1.36 7138000 30.06.2011 Investment AdvisorMIRAE ASSET INVESTME Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 25599000 1.26 (3408000) 30.09.2011 Investment AdvisorINVESCO LTD Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 25458000 1.26 - 28.02.2011 Investment AdvisorJP MORGAN ASSET MGMT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 24628000 1.22 - 14.01.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerBLACKROCK FUND ADVIS Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 19251000 0.95 19000 08.03.2012 Investment Advisor Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Weighting Change Target Price Date DateStandard Chartered BEN HARTWRIGHT outperform 5 M 7 12 month 12.03.2012Jefferies JULIAN BU underperform 1 M 4 12 month 12.03.2012BNP Paribas Equity Research TINA LI buy 5 M 7 12 month 09.03.2012Haitong International Securities ZHANG WEN XIAN buy 5 M 8 12 month 08.03.2012HSBC ANDERSON CHOW overweight 5 M 7 Not Provided 06.03.2012UOB Kay Hian MARK PO buy 5 M 7 Not Provided 05.03.2012Macquarie SAIYI HE neutral 3 N 6 12 month 28.02.2012Guotai Junan GARY WONG neutral 3 M 5 Not Provided 21.02.2012Capital Securities Corp HAN WEIQI buy 5 M 7 Not Provided 20.02.2012JPMorgan KAREN LI overweight 5 M 9 9 month 14.02.2012Citi ZHEN NI sell 1 M 5 Not Provided 09.02.2012Deutsche Bank PHYLLIS WANG buy 5 M 7 12 month 30.01.2012SinoPac VIVIAN LIU buy 5 M 6 12 month 19.01.2012EVA Dimensions TEAM COVERAGE sell 1 N #N/A N/A Not Provided 06.01.2012Mizuho Securities OLE HUI neutral 3 M 5 12 month 05.01.2012SWS Research Co Ltd TITUS WU neutral 3 M 5 Not Provided 05.01.2012Morgan Stanley KEVIN LUO Equalwt/In-Line 3 D 6 12 month 07.12.2011Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. EDWIN LEE hold 3 M 6 Not Provided 02.11.2011DBS Vickers RACHEL MIU buy 5 U 6 12 month 31.10.2011BOCOM International Holdings GEORGE YIN not rated #N/A N/A M #N/A N/A Not Provided 14.10.2011Masterlink Securities STANLEY YAN hold 3 D 5 6 month 09.08.2011Bank of China International XU MINLE buy 5 M 7 Not Provided 08.08.2011Citic Securities Co., Ltd SIMON YEUNG not rated #N/A N/A M #N/A N/A Not Provided 06.05.2011China International Capital Corp WU HUIMIN accumulate 4 M 10 12 month 25.04.2011 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  9. 9. 13.11.2012China Railway Group LtdChina Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. Price/VolumeThe Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges. 6 300.0 M 5 250.0 M 4 200.0 M 3 150.0 M Valuation AnalysisLatest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 2 100.0 MLTM as of: 01/yy 1 50.0 M52-Week High (12.11.2012) 4.41 0 .0 M52-Week Low (25.11.2011) 2.20 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12Daily Volume 36076850.00 Current Price (11/dd/yy) 4.09 Market Data 52-Week High % Change -7.26% Dividend Yield 1.46 52-Week Low % Change 85.91% Beta 1.66 % 52 Week Price Range High/Low 98.64% Equity Float 4207.39Shares Out 30.09.2012 4207.4 Short Int - Market Capitalization 77417.02 1 Yr Total Return 61.83%Total Debt 130576.00 YTD Return 71.15%Preferred Stock 0.0 Adjusted BETA 1.656Minority Interest 9330.0 Analyst Recs 25Cash and Equivalents 60314.00 Consensus Rating 4.000Enterprise Value 184037.72 Average Daily Trading Volume Relative Stock Price Performance Average Volume 5 Day 37858330390 HK EQUITY YTD Change - Average Volume 30 Day 26994810390 HK EQUITY YTD % CHANGE - Average Volume 3 Month 25070050 Fiscal Year Ended LTM-4Q LTM FY+1 FY+2 FQ+1 FQ+2 31.12.2007 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 31.12.2011 01/yy 01/yy 12/12 Y 12/13 Y 12/12 Q4 03/13 Q1 Total Revenue 178697.3 227245.5 334045.0 456162.0 442216.0 - - 457078.5 491024.4 - - TEV/Revenue 1.11x 0.55x 0.43x 0.29x 0.30x - - 0.33x 0.32x - - EBITDA 7253.8 10036.8 12946.0 15702.0 18977.0 - - 19813.3 21702.4 - - TEV/EBITDA 27.40x 12.52x 11.00x 8.38x 6.90x - - 9.29x 8.48x - - Net Income 3228.3 1115.2 6875.0 7398.0 6690.0 - - 6754.9 7526.1 - - P/E 41.87x 94.59x 16.47x 13.71x 6.28x - - 10.40x 9.20x - - Profitability S&P Issuer RatingsEBITDA 18977.00 Long-Term Rating Date -EBIT 12610.00 Long-Term Rating -Operating Margin 2.85% Long-Term Outlook -Pretax Margin 2.26% Short-Term Rating Date -Return on Assets 1.41% Short-Term Rating -Return on Common Equity 9.34% Credit RatiosReturn on Capital 5.01% EBITDA/Interest Exp. 2.99Asset Turnover 0.90% (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest Exp. 1.67Margin Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA 4.90Gross Margin 7.3% Total Debt/EBITDA 7.68EBITDA Margin 4.7% ReferenceEBIT Margin 3.2% Total Debt/Equity 181.7%Net Income Margin 1.5% Total Debt/Capital 61.7%Structure Asset Turnover 0.90Current Ratio 1.18 Net Fixed Asset Turnover 9.08Quick Ratio 0.52 Accounts receivable turnover-days 84.04Debt to Assets 27.87% Inventory Days 147.47Tot Debt to Common Equity 181.74% Accounts Payable Turnover Day 133.94Accounts Receivable Turnover 4.35 Cash Conversion Cycle 73.77Inventory Turnover 2.48Price/ Cash Flow Sales/Revenue/Turnover 100.00 500000.0 90.00 450000.0 80.00 400000.0 70.00 350000.0 60.00 300000.0 50.00 250000.0 40.00 200000.0 30.00 150000.0 20.00 100000.0 10.00 50000.0 0.00 0.0 04.01.2008 04.07.2008 04.01.2009 04.07.2009 04.01.2010 04.07.2010 04.01.2011 04.07.2011 04.01.2012 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  10. 10. 13.11.2012China Railway Group LtdHoldings By: All Holder Name Portfolio Name Source Amt Held % Out Latest Chg File Dt Inst TypeSOCIAL SECURITY FUND n/a Co File 382490000 9.09 - 31.12.2010 Pension Fund (ERISA)JP MORGAN CHASE & CO n/a EXCH 209008317 4.97 (1825000) 31.03.2010 Investment AdvisorVANGUARD GROUP INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 145322772 3.45 391000 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorBLACKROCK INC n/a EXCH 143991204 3.42 (165723000) 16.09.2011 Investment AdvisorLEHMAN BROTHERS FINA n/a Co File 123652010 2.94 - 31.12.2010 UnclassifiedLEHMAN BROTHERS INTE n/a Short (67870550) -1.61 - 30.06.2010 BankFIDELITY MANAGEMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 63986884 1.52 2187090 31.01.2012 Investment AdvisorLEHMAN BROTHERS INTE n/a Co File 59870550 1.42 - 31.12.2010 BankBLACKROCK FUND ADVIS Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 45860000 1.09 38000 08.03.2012 Investment AdvisorJP MORGAN ASSET MGMT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 38240000 0.91 - 14.01.2011 Mutual Fund ManagerBANK OF NEW YORK MEL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 36774000 0.87 (3004000) 09.03.2012 Investment AdvisorLEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD n/a Short (26551000) -0.63 - 30.06.2010 CorporationLEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD n/a Co File 26551000 0.63 - 31.12.2010 CorporationBNP PARIBAS ASSET MG Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 16289000 0.39 (1205000) 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorBLACKROCK INC n/a Short (12803741) -0.3 5014000 16.09.2011 Investment AdvisorSTATE STREET CORP Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 8824000 0.21 - 12.03.2012 Investment AdvisorROBECO INVESTOR SERV Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 8250000 0.2 - 31.12.2011 Investment AdvisorPRINCIPAL LIFE INSUR PRINCIPAL LIFE INSUR Sch-D 8238000 0.2 8238000 30.09.2011 Insurance CompanyUNITED SERVICES AUTO Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 6872000 0.16 - 30.11.2011 Investment AdvisorNISSAY ASSET MANAGEM Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 5012000 0.12 - 21.04.2011 Mutual Fund Manager Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Weighting Change Target Price Date DateStandard Chartered BEN HARTWRIGHT in-line 3 M 3 12 month 12.03.2012Jefferies JULIAN BU underperform 1 M 2 12 month 12.03.2012Morgan Stanley KEVIN LUO Underwt/Attractive 1 D 3 12 month 07.03.2012Deutsche Bank PHYLLIS WANG hold 3 D 3 12 month 27.02.2012SinoPac VIVIAN LIU neutral 3 M 3 12 month 23.02.2012JPMorgan KAREN LI overweight 5 U 4 12 month 14.02.2012EVA Dimensions TEAM COVERAGE sell 1 N #N/A N/A Not Provided 06.01.2012HSBC ANDERSON CHOW underweight 1 M 2 Not Provided 30.12.2011Masterlink Securities JAMES CHUNG hold 3 M 3 Not Provided 27.12.2011Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. EDWIN LEE hold 3 M 3 Not Provided 22.12.2011Citi ZHEN NI sell 1 D 2 Not Provided 03.11.2011Credit Suisse INGRID WEI outperform 5 U 4 Not Provided 02.11.2011Bank of China International LI PAN hold 3 M 3 Not Provided 31.10.2011DBS Vickers RACHEL MIU hold 3 M 3 12 month 31.10.2011Guotai Junan GARY WONG neutral 3 M 2 Not Provided 09.09.2011Capital Securities Corp TEAM COVERAGE hold 3 M #N/A N/A Not Provided 31.08.2011China International Capital Corp WU HUIMIN hold 3 M 5 12 month 03.05.2011CCB International Securities Ltd ELIZA LIU neutral 3 M 8 Not Provided 10.12.2010UOB Kay Hian MARK PO buy 5 M 7 Not Provided 06.09.2010Citic Securities Co., Ltd TEAM COVERAGE buy 5 N #N/A N/A Not Provided 08.07.2010 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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