2015-10-21 - Yara International ASA Q3 2015 Presentation

Yara International ASA
Third quarter results
2015
21 October 2015

1
IR – 21 October 2015
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
YTD
TRI
Safe operations is our first priority
TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours

2
 Strong result with increased deliveries
 Pick-up in Brazil sales
 European deliveries down 5%, but increase for nitrates
 Lower production mainly due to planned maintenance
 NOK 3.2 billion gain on divestment of GrowHow UK
Summary third quarter

3
10.54
9.82 9.25
7.67
8.04 6.69
5.66
0.23
6.40
8.26
6.18
6.74
2.65
10.59
14.56
8.32
10.80
9.00
7.21
8.52
7.97
5.62
2.65
7.03 7.74 7.62
8.17
10.51
9.58
7.41
Earnings per share*
*Average number of shares for 3Q 2015: 275.1 million (3Q 2014: 276.2 million).
NOK 37.31 20.67 27.59 27.79
Annual
2012 2013 2014
EPS excluding currency and
special items
2015

4
 Lower urea prices due to lower supply costs from China, and increased production
capacity globally
 Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries down 5% on third quarter last
year
 Brazil fertilizer industry deliveries in line with third quarter 2014; 6% lower year to date
 Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products
Market development

5
69.8
10.8
59.0 58.2
15.6
73.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Production
Export
Domestic
Domestic
Export
Production
Million tons
Source: BOABC, CFMW
Increased production and exports from China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Black Sea
USD/t
Chinese exports and urea priceChinese urea balance L12M
-2%
Sep – Aug 13/14 Sep – Aug 14/15
Kilotons

6
Normal deliveries in Europe and US
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15
Domestic production Net imports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15
Domestic production Net imports
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
USMillion tons NWest EuropeMillion tons N
-4%-5%

7
306
175
154
68
85
303
231
148
41
84
305
250
261
37
85
Asia Brazil Latin
America excl.
Brazil
Africa North
America
Continued growth for value-added fertilizer products
Kilotons Kilotons
3Q153Q143Q13
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15
Outside Europe Europe
CAGR
6%
1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries
Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1

8
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer
20142011 2012 2013 2015
Lower production mainly due to planned maintenance
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Kilotons
2015
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer & industrial products1 Ammonia1
20142011 2012 2013

9
Brazil 3Q industry deliveries in line with last year;
Yara prioritized margins in 3Q
Brazil 3Q fertilizer deliveries
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thousands
+8%
-1%
Kilotons Kilotons
Source: ANDA, Yara
Yara Brazil value-added product 3Q deliveries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Yara Brazil deliveriesBrazil industry
deliveries
Galvani

10
Brazilian soybean cost competitiveness significantly
improved due to local currency depreciation
Soybeans - production cost with USD/BRL
3.65
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
USD/bu
Corn - production cost with USD/BRL 3.65
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: USDA, AMS, AGROCONSULT. Prepared by: Agroconsult.
Mato Grosso, Brazil
Iowa, USA
USD/bu
Mato Grosso, Brazil
Iowa, USA
Paraná, Brazil

11
European deliveries down 5%, but increase for nitrates
Kilotons
1,126 1,185 1,209
499 489 419
395 364 339
3Q 2015
2,095
3Q 2014
2,217
3Q 2013
2,163
NitratesNPK compoundOtherUrea
Nitrate-based fertilizer is superior to urea both
agronomically and environmentally
 Higher crop yields and protein content
 Lower N-losses / higher N-efficiency
 Lower carbon footprint

12
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortization (EBITDA)
4,310
4,966
4,103
3,591
4,184
4,039 3,318
1,858
3,591
4,227
3,964
4,625 4,794
5,179
7,884
3,935
5,196
4,186
3,541
4,149
4,103
3,223 2,363
3,830
4,185
4,002
4,528
5,742
5,055
4,614
2012 20142013 2015
NOK
millions
16,970 13,399 16,407 17,857
Annual
EBITDA excluding special
items
NOK millions

13
EBITDA development
764 1,066
540
1,455
3,964
3,306
7,884
EBITDA 3Q15Special
items
CurrencyOtherPrice/marginVolume & mixEBITDA 3Q14
NOK millions
of which
OFD+Galvani
~ +600 million
of which EU
energy
+151 million
of which
OFD+Galvani
~ -350 million

14
Improved earnings in Upstream
1,463 1,519
420 432
2,293
6,221
1,516 1,533
420 432
2,277
2,937
Downstream Industrial Upstream
EBITDA excluding special items
3Q14 3Q15
EBITDA1
(NOK millions)
1) 3Q 2015 result reflects new segment structure as described in note 3 of the financial report.

15
(891)
(726)
(1,314)
(588)
(151)
(550)
(300)
(1,400)
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
NOK
millions
October 2015 estimate*
Lower natural gas cost in Europe
Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 October 2015
Yara European gas & oil cost
Actual
Change in European energy cost
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
USD/
MMBtu
TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe

16
Stable European nitrate premium
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
USD/t
Nitrogen upgrading margins1
(monthly publication prices)
Urea Black sea CFR proxy CAN (46% N)
NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy
Value
above gas
Value above
ammonia
Nitrate
premium
above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
European nitrate premium2
(quarterly Yara realized)USD/t
2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea
publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD
per ton of CAN equivalents.1) All prices in urea equivalents

17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
USD/t
NPK premium over blend1
Stable commodity phosphate margins and solid NPK
compound premiums
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
USD/t
Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob NA *1.4
Value above
raw material
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, CIF inland Germany
MOP, CIF inland Germany
Urea, CIF inland Germany
Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of
transport and handling cost.
Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany

18
Brazil: Improved profitability and risk management
Yara Brazil 3Q EBITDA
Source: Yara
Yara Brazil risk management
664
406
290
-22
3Q 20132Q 2012 3Q 20153Q 2014
MNOK
27
28
27
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
YTD 2015201420132012
Net overdues >30 days of total receivables (%)
Net credit days
Days %
Galvani

19
Net interest-bearing debt development
3,282
4,794
2,452
1,335 1,369
4,401
10,471
Net debt
Sep 15
OtherFX lossYara dividend
312
Investments
net
Dividends
from equity-
accounted
investees
377
347
Net operating
capital
change
Growhow UKCash
earnings*
Net debt
Jun 15
* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions

20
 Positive farm margin outlook and fertilizer application incentives
 Chinese urea production and export costs remain key for global nitrogen pricing
 Good start to season in Europe; industry stocks and nitrate premium at normal levels
 Improved demand in Brazil, with increased competitiveness vs. other crop exporters
 Further NOK 850 million European gas cost saving expected next 2 quarters
Prospects

22
NOK bn
1.0
1.0
0.5
Production
20142
18.8
Production
2017
20.4
Sale
GrowHow
UK
M&A4Committed
growth3
Capex plan Production growth 2014-2017
2) Finished fertilizer and industrial products, excl. bulk blends
3) Committed projects only. TAN Pilbara: 160 kt (net 90kt),
Porsgrunn: 250kt, Glomfjord: 185kt, Uusikapunki: 250kt, Köping:
90kt, Sluiskil: net 160kt
4) Full-year impact vs. 2014 of Galvani (60% of ~1 mill.- tons) and
OFD: ~400kt higher than 2014
Capex status
mt
1) Yaras share of capex
0.6
2018
6.8
5.0
1.2
2017
8.5
5.0
2.3
1.2
2016
13.6
5.8
6.5
1.3
2015
9.7
5.5
3.4
0.8
Maintenance
Cost&capacity improvements
Committed growth
BASF JV 1.1 1.7 0.5
TAN Pilbara 0.6
Porsgrunn 0.6 1.2 0.3
Köping 0.3 0.8 0.3
Sluiskil 0.3 0.8 0.3
Uusikapunki 0.3
Ammonia vessels 0.2 1.4
Other projects 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6
Total 3.4 6.5 2.3 0.6
Committed growth (NOKbn)1

23
Yara 3Q fertilizer sales by market and product
2,195
3,120
673 515 345
2,081
3,516
526 577
235
Europe Latin America North America Asia Africa
3Q14 3Q15
914
1,808
1,390 1,296
941
274 225
1,044
1,665
1,413
998
1,346
236 233
NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN
Kilotons

24
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15
YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries
Kilotons
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15
Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries
Kilotons
Yara-produced YaraMila deliveries
Outside Europe Europe Outside Europe Europe

25
NOK millions
Total Yara contribution
Value-added and distribution make up larger part of
Yaras contribution
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
3Q11 1Q121Q113Q101Q10 3Q12
Commodity Europe
Commodity overseas
Upgrade & distribution
Trade
3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q151Q13

26
Industrial volume development
830
913
885
864852849
816
866
819
844
792
540540
482
511
438456432
385364
333346
380361
339
367364358
328
3Q142Q141Q14
382
4Q133Q13
374
2Q13
368
1Q13
343
3Q152Q151Q154Q14
Industrial N-chemicals Environmental products Other
Kilotons

27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
AdBlue deliveries
Kilotons

28
0.49
0.20
0.07
-0.04
0.05
0.13
0.38
0.22
0.08
0.01
0.06
0.15
0.32
0.12
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.27
0.12
0.02
0.06
0.17
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Debt/equity ratio
Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

29
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other
Yara stocks
Bunge Fertilizer
included from 3Q 2013
Kilotons
Finished fertilizer

30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
15/16 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for September
European producers’ nitrate stocks
Index
June 2007 = 1

31
4.0
4.4
4.0
2.8
3.7
5.2
4.6
3.9 3.8
2.9 2.7 2.72.7 2.6 2.9
4.8
5.7
8.2 8.0
8.0 8.1
6.9
6.1
6.5
6.0
5.7
5.3
5.1
5.24.7
6.6
9.2 9.4
10.5
9.8
7.6
7.0
8.1
7.0 6.8
6.5
6.0 6.1
6.6
7.6
10.7
11.0 11.4 11.3
9.2
7.5
8.5
7.6 7.5 7.0
6.5 6.6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe
Energy cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts/Argus/ICIS Heren
Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-15 with forward prices* for 4Q15 and 1Q16.
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 October 2015

32
At the beginning of the fourth quarter 2015
1. The US dollar debt generating Profit & Loss exposure was USD 1,500
million
• Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
• Fairly even split of exposure towards EUR, BRL and other emerging market
currencies
• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional Profit & Loss exposure from internal currency positions vs.
NOK
• Payables mainly CAD (450 million)
• Receivables mainly EUR (200 million)
Currency exposure affecting Profit & Loss

33
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015
Index
FAO price index
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Farm economics support fertilizer demand, even in USD
based economies
Source: FAO

34
Global grain balance
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Days
Source: USDA October 2015

35
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

36
Source: CRU urea update September 2015 (June 2015 in brackets) . Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions
Urea capacity growth relative
to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2015
Algeria 18%
Iran 16%
2.6% (2.6%)
2016
USA 30%
Algeria 15%
3.0% (3.3%)
2017
USA 44%
Nigeria 15%
1.6% (2.3%)
2018
Nigeria 30%
Russia 20%
1.5% (1.3%)
2019
Russia 34%
Nigeria 34%
1.3%
Gross annual addition 2015-2019 ~2.0%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2015-2019 ~1.5%
Trend consumption growth from 2003 2.0%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China

37
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
320 315 295 277 268
358 355 337
297 281
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea
granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)
309 310 295
273 257
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
3.9 3.8
2.9 2.7 2.7
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
7.0
8.1
7.0 6.8 6.4
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
6.3
6.9
7.7 7.8 8.2
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
NOK/USD exchange rate
488
572
413 393 388
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

38
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt
Average prices 2005 - 2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea

2015-10-21 - Yara International ASA Q3 2015 Presentation

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2015-10-21 - Yara International ASA Q3 2015 Presentation