This document summarizes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy from the Climate Forecasting Unit. It identifies regions with the highest solar resource potential and variability in spring (March-May), and assesses the skill of climate forecast models to predict spring solar radiation levels up to 1 month in advance. Several key areas are identified where solar forecasts are most skillful and could provide valuable information for decision-making, including parts of South America, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Northern Australia and Western Europe. An example operational forecast for spring 2011 illustrates probabilistic predictions of above-, below- or normal solar radiation levels.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy potential over summer (June, July, August).
2) It identifies several areas of highest interest based on regions that have both abundant and highly variable solar radiation resources as well as regions where climate forecast models demonstrate the highest skill in predicting summer solar variability.
3) An example is shown of an operational seasonal forecast from May 2011 predicting the probability of above, below, or normal solar radiation for the forthcoming summer in areas that were identified as highest priority.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy, focusing on summer.
2) It identifies several key areas where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable, making them most vulnerable to changes and important for seasonal forecasting.
3) It evaluates the skill of climate forecast models in predicting past variability and magnitude of solar GHI, finding some regions where forecasts show high skill up to 1 month ahead.
1) The document provides seasonal forecasts for autumn solar photovoltaic (PV) energy potential in key regions globally based on solar irradiance data from 1981-2011.
2) It identifies regions where solar irradiance is most abundant and variable, and where seasonal forecast skill is highest one month in advance, such as Spain, East Australia, and Indonesia.
3) An example operational forecast for autumn 2011 predicts areas likely to have above, below, or normal solar irradiance that season.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy availability in autumn.
2) It identifies several key regions where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable in autumn, including Spain/Portugal, Indonesia, eastern Australia, and Tanzania/Kenya Coast.
3) It assesses the skill of climate forecast models in predicting autumn solar GHI variability and magnitude up to 1 month in advance, finding the highest skill in regions like Spain/Portugal, Indonesia, northeast USA/Caribbean, and northeast Australia.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar photovoltaic (PV) energy in winter by assessing solar irradiance resource potential, variability, and forecast skill.
2) It identifies key regions where solar irradiance is abundant and highly variable, and where forecast models demonstrate the highest skill in predicting irradiance variability, magnitude, and uncertainty.
3) These regions, including parts of South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, show the greatest potential for operational winter solar irradiance forecasts to inform decision-making.
1) The document examines seasonal forecasts for global wind energy during the summer, focusing on regions where wind resource is abundant and highly variable.
2) It analyzes wind resource availability and variability from 1981-2011 to identify key regions of interest, including Patagonia/Chile, Central Sahara/Sahel/Kenya, Central-Western India, Central-Southern Western Continent/Western China, and Northern Australia/Tasmania.
3) It assesses the skill of seasonal wind forecasts from 1981-2010 against observations, finding the highest skill in regions like Northeast Coast/Eastern Brasil/Northwest Coast, Southeast Continent/India, and Sahel/Western Angola/Western Namib
The Moon & Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (MERBE) project aims to better separate the effects of climate change from changes in instruments or the Sun by using the Moon as a standard. MERBE has recalibrated many NASA Earth satellite instruments so that they also measure the constant Moon temperature and reflectivity since 2002. Any trends found in the MERBE Earth data can be attributed to real climate changes rather than changes in instruments or the Sun over time. The summary invites scientists, policymakers or those interested in detecting and proving climate change to contact Zedika Solutions LLC to learn how data from various international satellite missions can be improved to become part of the MERBE project.
How to use Logistic Regression in GIS using ArcGIS and R statisticsOmar F. Althuwaynee
This document outlines a course on using logistic regression in GIS applications with R. It discusses using logistic regression to create susceptibility maps by predicting the probability of landslides. It introduces key concepts like binomial logistic regression and dependent/independent variables. It also presents the equations that underlie logistic regression models and how they are used to calculate probability. The goal is for students to learn how to develop logistic regression models and maps in R and evaluate their accuracy.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy potential over summer (June, July, August).
2) It identifies several areas of highest interest based on regions that have both abundant and highly variable solar radiation resources as well as regions where climate forecast models demonstrate the highest skill in predicting summer solar variability.
3) An example is shown of an operational seasonal forecast from May 2011 predicting the probability of above, below, or normal solar radiation for the forthcoming summer in areas that were identified as highest priority.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy, focusing on summer.
2) It identifies several key areas where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable, making them most vulnerable to changes and important for seasonal forecasting.
3) It evaluates the skill of climate forecast models in predicting past variability and magnitude of solar GHI, finding some regions where forecasts show high skill up to 1 month ahead.
1) The document provides seasonal forecasts for autumn solar photovoltaic (PV) energy potential in key regions globally based on solar irradiance data from 1981-2011.
2) It identifies regions where solar irradiance is most abundant and variable, and where seasonal forecast skill is highest one month in advance, such as Spain, East Australia, and Indonesia.
3) An example operational forecast for autumn 2011 predicts areas likely to have above, below, or normal solar irradiance that season.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar PV energy availability in autumn.
2) It identifies several key regions where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable in autumn, including Spain/Portugal, Indonesia, eastern Australia, and Tanzania/Kenya Coast.
3) It assesses the skill of climate forecast models in predicting autumn solar GHI variability and magnitude up to 1 month in advance, finding the highest skill in regions like Spain/Portugal, Indonesia, northeast USA/Caribbean, and northeast Australia.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global solar photovoltaic (PV) energy in winter by assessing solar irradiance resource potential, variability, and forecast skill.
2) It identifies key regions where solar irradiance is abundant and highly variable, and where forecast models demonstrate the highest skill in predicting irradiance variability, magnitude, and uncertainty.
3) These regions, including parts of South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, show the greatest potential for operational winter solar irradiance forecasts to inform decision-making.
1) The document examines seasonal forecasts for global wind energy during the summer, focusing on regions where wind resource is abundant and highly variable.
2) It analyzes wind resource availability and variability from 1981-2011 to identify key regions of interest, including Patagonia/Chile, Central Sahara/Sahel/Kenya, Central-Western India, Central-Southern Western Continent/Western China, and Northern Australia/Tasmania.
3) It assesses the skill of seasonal wind forecasts from 1981-2010 against observations, finding the highest skill in regions like Northeast Coast/Eastern Brasil/Northwest Coast, Southeast Continent/India, and Sahel/Western Angola/Western Namib
The Moon & Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (MERBE) project aims to better separate the effects of climate change from changes in instruments or the Sun by using the Moon as a standard. MERBE has recalibrated many NASA Earth satellite instruments so that they also measure the constant Moon temperature and reflectivity since 2002. Any trends found in the MERBE Earth data can be attributed to real climate changes rather than changes in instruments or the Sun over time. The summary invites scientists, policymakers or those interested in detecting and proving climate change to contact Zedika Solutions LLC to learn how data from various international satellite missions can be improved to become part of the MERBE project.
How to use Logistic Regression in GIS using ArcGIS and R statisticsOmar F. Althuwaynee
This document outlines a course on using logistic regression in GIS applications with R. It discusses using logistic regression to create susceptibility maps by predicting the probability of landslides. It introduces key concepts like binomial logistic regression and dependent/independent variables. It also presents the equations that underlie logistic regression models and how they are used to calculate probability. The goal is for students to learn how to develop logistic regression models and maps in R and evaluate their accuracy.
How to use Frequency Ratio with ArcMap and Excel for predictionOmar F. Althuwaynee
This document discusses using a modified bivariate frequency ratio method for spatial prediction in GIS and Excel. It involves calculating the spatial correlation between predictive factors and dependent factors, autocorrelation between predictive factors, and producing a susceptibility map in Excel and ArcMap. Validation is done using the area under the curve statistical method. The method calculates frequency, relative frequency, and predictor ratios to consider interrelationships among predictive factors and produce a susceptibility index map. Required data includes landcover, topographic, dependent event locations and predictive factors.
This document describes a methodology for mapping earthquake activity in urban areas of California from 2013-2015. Satellite imagery from 2014 was used as a base map overlaid with urban area data from 2011. Earthquake data by magnitude was interpolated over three years using inverse distance weighting, showing higher earthquake activity in darker, more urban areas of southern California. Histograms of earthquake magnitudes each year show more higher magnitude quakes in 2015. The goal was to create interpolated surfaces of earthquake magnitudes to display risk among urban landscapes in California.
Solid Terrain Modeling, Inc.- Case Study - Firefighter TrainingWatson Mary
Doug uses four models, Storm King Mountain, Malibu Bowl, Pony Peak and Dillon Mountain. The data for the models came from the US Geological Survey's public domain database. Storm King Mountain is printed with the USGS topo map (DRG), Malibu Bowl, Pony Peak and Dillon are printed with colorized 1 meter black and white USGS DOQQs.
The document summarizes a study that estimated potential losses in Istanbul, Turkey from earthquake scenarios along faults in the Marmara Sea region. Deterministic ground motion scenarios were developed for a Mw 7.4 earthquake on the Central Marmara Basin fault, using different rupture models. Synthetic time series were calculated on a grid covering Istanbul and peak ground accelerations were found to range from 1.0-7.0 m/s2 depending on the scenario. A loss estimation model was then applied using the ground motions and a building inventory database to evaluate expected damage and casualties from the scenarios.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2014 M6 South Napa earthquake, including:
1) The earthquake caused surface rupture along a 12.5 km long fault near American Canyon, CA.
2) GPS data before and after the quake showed coseismic displacements of up to 115 mm horizontally at stations nearest the fault.
3) Interseismic GPS data in the years prior revealed up to 5 mm/year of right-lateral shear strain accumulation across the fault zone.
The document summarizes research on land subsidence and elevation changes in Orleans Parish, Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It describes how the researchers used historical elevation data from control points between 1951-1991 to create a model predicting 50 years of subsidence through kriging interpolation. They generated an elevation surface map showing predicted subsidence across the parish. The surface was created in ArcGIS using a spherical semivariogram model, with assumptions like a constant subsidence rate, and could be improved by considering additional influence factors.
This document describes the generation of a typical meteorological solar radiation year (TMY) for Armidale, New South Wales, Australia using 23 years of daily global solar radiation data. The Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method was used to select the most representative year of data for each month based on how closely its cumulative frequency distribution matched the long-term monthly average. The resulting typical year showed monthly average radiation values ranging from a low of 10.41 MJ/m2 in June to a high of 25.88 MJ/m2 in December. Comparison of the TMY data to the long-term monthly averages showed good agreement, indicating the TMY successfully captured typical solar conditions for Armidale
Steve's presentation at ICCC 2009(Stephen Mc Intyre)Wladimir Illescas
This document discusses criticisms of claims that the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium based on temperature reconstructions. It notes that minor variations in data versions and proxies can yield opposite results. It also discusses criticisms of the "hockey stick" temperature graph that was featured prominently in IPCC reports and disputes that multiple independent studies all found late 20th century warming, noting many used common proxies. The document questions whether key proxies like bristlecones have been robustly updated and whether simple statistical models apply to complex trees.
Modeling the Climate System: Is model-based science like model-based engineer...Steve Easterbrook
Keynote Talk given at the ACM/IEEE 18th International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems (Models 2015), Ottawa, September 2015.
GeoAvalanche Avalanche danger index processingGeobeyond
GeoAvalanche is an integrated avalanche risk management system that uses geospatial applications and data sharing to calculate snow avalanche risk with high accuracy. It uses elevation models, crowdsourced data, and earth observation data in an algorithm to assess risk. GeoAvalanche helps users avoid high risk areas and plan safer excursions by increasing awareness of snow and avalanche conditions. The system includes web services for accessing avalanche data, risk calculations, and crowdsourced incident reporting.
Parker, L. Navarro-Racines, C. Available data for crop modelling and applications using EcoCrop. Second training in Climate vulnerability analysis using the EcoCrop model, organized by Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research (IIAM) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Speaker and mentor. August – September 2014, Maputo-Mozambique.
Krishna AchutaRao - Uncertainty from above - can it be reduced?STEPS Centre
Uncertainty from climate models can be reduced from "above" - how scientists report on it. There are three main sources of uncertainty:
1) Reflexive uncertainty from unknown future greenhouse gas emissions and climate-society feedbacks.
2) Epistemic uncertainty from incomplete representation in climate models and missing processes. Reducing this is a long term goal.
3) Aleatoric uncertainty from internal climate variability that is partially chaotic. For temperature, epistemic uncertainty dominates further in the future, while aleatoric uncertainty remains constant; thus constraining epistemic uncertainty is important. However, for rainfall over India, observational uncertainty is also significant, presenting a barrier to reducing model uncertainty.
The document describes an interactive simulation that models the relationship between Earth's position relative to the sun throughout the year and the resulting seasonal changes in temperature and daylight hours in four cities located in different hemispheres. Students are asked to use the simulation to collect monthly temperature and daylight data for each city, create line graphs to visualize the patterns, and then answer questions about the seasonal changes and how they relate to each city's location and proximity to the equator or tropics.
This document summarizes the key differences between weather and climate prediction and seasonal climate prediction methodology. Weather refers to short-term conditions while climate describes long-term trends and variability. Weather is unpredictable beyond 10 days due to atmospheric sensitivity, but climate can be predicted to some degree based on external forcing factors like sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Seasonal climate predictions use both empirical and dynamical models to provide probabilistic forecasts of climate statistics over the coming season, with the El Niño Southern Oscillation being a major source of predictability. Forecasts are verified using reliability and resolution metrics on many samples, and improvements rely on advancing models, observations, data assimilation, and understanding of seasonal variability.
This live theatre analysis assignment requires students to attend three live theatre events and identify 10 dramatic elements for each event in order to earn up to 100 points for each event. The assignment is due the last week of the regular session and any live performance with a story line, such as opera, musical theatre, straight theatre, or ballet will be acceptable. Students must identify the central dramatic action, how the play was unified, examples of exposition, the point of attack, inciting incident, any complications, discoveries, the crisis/climax, how the play resolved, and any subplots. Late work will not be accepted.
The document discusses travelling to new places as a way to gain a new perspective rather than the destination itself being important. It quotes Henry Miller stating that the destination is never a place but a new way of looking at things. The document also lists the book "Round Ireland with a Fridge" by Tony Hawks.
Baseball pants worn by players these days score high in terms of comfort as well as style. Piping and graphics are more common on modern baseball pants
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
This document discusses business combinations and provides learning objectives about key concepts. It begins with an introduction to business combinations and objectives like describing historical trends, reasons for combinations, and factors to consider in due diligence. It then covers terminology around asset vs stock acquisitions and different combination methods. The document discusses defensive acquisition tactics, takeover premiums, factors for due diligence, and approaches for determining price and payment methods in combinations. Slides include examples, definitions, and review questions.
How to use Frequency Ratio with ArcMap and Excel for predictionOmar F. Althuwaynee
This document discusses using a modified bivariate frequency ratio method for spatial prediction in GIS and Excel. It involves calculating the spatial correlation between predictive factors and dependent factors, autocorrelation between predictive factors, and producing a susceptibility map in Excel and ArcMap. Validation is done using the area under the curve statistical method. The method calculates frequency, relative frequency, and predictor ratios to consider interrelationships among predictive factors and produce a susceptibility index map. Required data includes landcover, topographic, dependent event locations and predictive factors.
This document describes a methodology for mapping earthquake activity in urban areas of California from 2013-2015. Satellite imagery from 2014 was used as a base map overlaid with urban area data from 2011. Earthquake data by magnitude was interpolated over three years using inverse distance weighting, showing higher earthquake activity in darker, more urban areas of southern California. Histograms of earthquake magnitudes each year show more higher magnitude quakes in 2015. The goal was to create interpolated surfaces of earthquake magnitudes to display risk among urban landscapes in California.
Solid Terrain Modeling, Inc.- Case Study - Firefighter TrainingWatson Mary
Doug uses four models, Storm King Mountain, Malibu Bowl, Pony Peak and Dillon Mountain. The data for the models came from the US Geological Survey's public domain database. Storm King Mountain is printed with the USGS topo map (DRG), Malibu Bowl, Pony Peak and Dillon are printed with colorized 1 meter black and white USGS DOQQs.
The document summarizes a study that estimated potential losses in Istanbul, Turkey from earthquake scenarios along faults in the Marmara Sea region. Deterministic ground motion scenarios were developed for a Mw 7.4 earthquake on the Central Marmara Basin fault, using different rupture models. Synthetic time series were calculated on a grid covering Istanbul and peak ground accelerations were found to range from 1.0-7.0 m/s2 depending on the scenario. A loss estimation model was then applied using the ground motions and a building inventory database to evaluate expected damage and casualties from the scenarios.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2014 M6 South Napa earthquake, including:
1) The earthquake caused surface rupture along a 12.5 km long fault near American Canyon, CA.
2) GPS data before and after the quake showed coseismic displacements of up to 115 mm horizontally at stations nearest the fault.
3) Interseismic GPS data in the years prior revealed up to 5 mm/year of right-lateral shear strain accumulation across the fault zone.
The document summarizes research on land subsidence and elevation changes in Orleans Parish, Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It describes how the researchers used historical elevation data from control points between 1951-1991 to create a model predicting 50 years of subsidence through kriging interpolation. They generated an elevation surface map showing predicted subsidence across the parish. The surface was created in ArcGIS using a spherical semivariogram model, with assumptions like a constant subsidence rate, and could be improved by considering additional influence factors.
This document describes the generation of a typical meteorological solar radiation year (TMY) for Armidale, New South Wales, Australia using 23 years of daily global solar radiation data. The Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method was used to select the most representative year of data for each month based on how closely its cumulative frequency distribution matched the long-term monthly average. The resulting typical year showed monthly average radiation values ranging from a low of 10.41 MJ/m2 in June to a high of 25.88 MJ/m2 in December. Comparison of the TMY data to the long-term monthly averages showed good agreement, indicating the TMY successfully captured typical solar conditions for Armidale
Steve's presentation at ICCC 2009(Stephen Mc Intyre)Wladimir Illescas
This document discusses criticisms of claims that the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium based on temperature reconstructions. It notes that minor variations in data versions and proxies can yield opposite results. It also discusses criticisms of the "hockey stick" temperature graph that was featured prominently in IPCC reports and disputes that multiple independent studies all found late 20th century warming, noting many used common proxies. The document questions whether key proxies like bristlecones have been robustly updated and whether simple statistical models apply to complex trees.
Modeling the Climate System: Is model-based science like model-based engineer...Steve Easterbrook
Keynote Talk given at the ACM/IEEE 18th International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems (Models 2015), Ottawa, September 2015.
GeoAvalanche Avalanche danger index processingGeobeyond
GeoAvalanche is an integrated avalanche risk management system that uses geospatial applications and data sharing to calculate snow avalanche risk with high accuracy. It uses elevation models, crowdsourced data, and earth observation data in an algorithm to assess risk. GeoAvalanche helps users avoid high risk areas and plan safer excursions by increasing awareness of snow and avalanche conditions. The system includes web services for accessing avalanche data, risk calculations, and crowdsourced incident reporting.
Parker, L. Navarro-Racines, C. Available data for crop modelling and applications using EcoCrop. Second training in Climate vulnerability analysis using the EcoCrop model, organized by Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research (IIAM) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Speaker and mentor. August – September 2014, Maputo-Mozambique.
Krishna AchutaRao - Uncertainty from above - can it be reduced?STEPS Centre
Uncertainty from climate models can be reduced from "above" - how scientists report on it. There are three main sources of uncertainty:
1) Reflexive uncertainty from unknown future greenhouse gas emissions and climate-society feedbacks.
2) Epistemic uncertainty from incomplete representation in climate models and missing processes. Reducing this is a long term goal.
3) Aleatoric uncertainty from internal climate variability that is partially chaotic. For temperature, epistemic uncertainty dominates further in the future, while aleatoric uncertainty remains constant; thus constraining epistemic uncertainty is important. However, for rainfall over India, observational uncertainty is also significant, presenting a barrier to reducing model uncertainty.
The document describes an interactive simulation that models the relationship between Earth's position relative to the sun throughout the year and the resulting seasonal changes in temperature and daylight hours in four cities located in different hemispheres. Students are asked to use the simulation to collect monthly temperature and daylight data for each city, create line graphs to visualize the patterns, and then answer questions about the seasonal changes and how they relate to each city's location and proximity to the equator or tropics.
This document summarizes the key differences between weather and climate prediction and seasonal climate prediction methodology. Weather refers to short-term conditions while climate describes long-term trends and variability. Weather is unpredictable beyond 10 days due to atmospheric sensitivity, but climate can be predicted to some degree based on external forcing factors like sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Seasonal climate predictions use both empirical and dynamical models to provide probabilistic forecasts of climate statistics over the coming season, with the El Niño Southern Oscillation being a major source of predictability. Forecasts are verified using reliability and resolution metrics on many samples, and improvements rely on advancing models, observations, data assimilation, and understanding of seasonal variability.
This live theatre analysis assignment requires students to attend three live theatre events and identify 10 dramatic elements for each event in order to earn up to 100 points for each event. The assignment is due the last week of the regular session and any live performance with a story line, such as opera, musical theatre, straight theatre, or ballet will be acceptable. Students must identify the central dramatic action, how the play was unified, examples of exposition, the point of attack, inciting incident, any complications, discoveries, the crisis/climax, how the play resolved, and any subplots. Late work will not be accepted.
The document discusses travelling to new places as a way to gain a new perspective rather than the destination itself being important. It quotes Henry Miller stating that the destination is never a place but a new way of looking at things. The document also lists the book "Round Ireland with a Fridge" by Tony Hawks.
Baseball pants worn by players these days score high in terms of comfort as well as style. Piping and graphics are more common on modern baseball pants
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
This document discusses business combinations and provides learning objectives about key concepts. It begins with an introduction to business combinations and objectives like describing historical trends, reasons for combinations, and factors to consider in due diligence. It then covers terminology around asset vs stock acquisitions and different combination methods. The document discusses defensive acquisition tactics, takeover premiums, factors for due diligence, and approaches for determining price and payment methods in combinations. Slides include examples, definitions, and review questions.
1) The document analyzes seasonal forecasts for global wind energy availability in autumn.
2) It identifies several key regions where wind resource is both abundant and highly variable between years, making them most suitable for seasonal wind forecasting.
3) The forecasts are evaluated against past data and found to have the highest skill in predicting wind resource variability, magnitude, and uncertainty in certain regions like Patagonia, parts of Africa, Asia, and Australia.
DIGA Line Ltd. - Corporative PresentationDima Migarova
On the seventh year of our democracy we saw that capitalism isn’t going well either and we thought that if we created ideas that work, many people and companies would benefit from them, we would be happy, and maybe we could help capitalism also...
Thus was born Diga Line.
At first we hoped and now we know for sure that we can create a connection between information and emotion, vision and words, succession and innovation, artistry and technique.
From idea to realization.
This document discusses seasonal forecasts for global wind energy in winter. It begins by showing maps of average winter wind resource and variability based on reanalysis data. Several regions with abundant and variable wind resources are identified. The document then assesses the skill of climate forecast models to predict winter wind variability up to 1 month in advance. Maps show where forecasts best match observations. Key regions with both high wind potential and skilled forecasts are identified. Finally, an example operational probabilistic forecast for winter 2011 wind resource is presented, focused on the most skillful regions.
Students analyze weather maps and construct weather reports. Groups present weather reports to the class for different dates from August 24-31. Students then use the information from the reports to forecast the weather for September 1 in Cleveland, Ohio. Key concepts covered include how weather maps are compiled from satellite data, global patterns that influence local weather, and the roles of meteorologists and other scientists in studying and reporting on weather.
Students analyze weather maps and construct weather reports. Groups present weather reports to the class for different dates from August 24-31. Students then use the information from the reports to forecast the weather for September 1 in Cleveland, Ohio. Key concepts covered include how weather maps are compiled from satellite data, global patterns that influence local weather, and the roles of meteorologists and other scientists in studying and reporting on weather.
This document describes the generation of a typical meteorological year (TMY) of solar irradiance data on tilted surfaces for Armidale, New South Wales, Australia. It utilizes 23 years of daily solar radiation measurements from 1990 to 2012 to select the most representative months using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method. Models are used to estimate hourly solar radiation on tilted surfaces at angles of 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, and 75° based on the typical meteorological year horizontal surface data. Tables of the estimated typical solar irradiance values are generated for each day of the year on the tilted surfaces, providing important input data for solar energy system design and performance modeling in Armidale.
Solar Irradiation Data for Lebanon August 2020.pdframi429970
The document summarizes a study on solar irradiation data in Lebanon conducted by LCEC interns in August 2020. It includes background on previous solar irradiation studies from 2005 and describes the methodology used to collect and analyze solar irradiation data from sensors at 11 sites across Lebanon in 2019. The results are presented in tables comparing average monthly global horizontal irradiation from 2019 to 2005 data for three climatic zones in Lebanon: coastal, coastal Bayssour, and inland.
This document discusses generating optimistic, normal, and pessimistic estimates of global solar radiation in Armidale, New South Wales, Australia based on 23 years of daily radiation data. Typical meteorological year (TMY) data was previously generated for Armidale using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to select the most representative month from each year. This study aims to provide upper and lower limits around the normal TMY values using the same method by selecting months with the highest and lowest radiation levels.
This document discusses generating a revised Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) solar radiation data for Armidale, Australia that considers cloudy days. It begins by explaining what TMY data is and how it is typically generated without considering cloudy days. It then defines clear and cloudy days based on cloud cover measurements. The methodology section describes using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to generate the original TMY from 23 years of solar radiation data, without accounting for cloudy days. The document aims to generate a revised TMY that considers cloudy days and analyze the impacts on the expected solar radiation potential.
This document discusses analyzing seasonal patterns in the United States to test Hopkins' Law of Phenology. The study area spans 29°N to 46°N latitude along 84°W longitude, covering five states. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2011 were analyzed using ENVI software to determine the first day of spring at 11 locations. Dates ranged from day 87 to 140, generally following Hopkins' Law of 4 days later per degree of latitude northward. While results sometimes deviated from the law, the relationship between date and latitude closely matched an expected curve.
This document provides a case study on forecasting monthly exceedance probabilities of solar radiation in Arizona. It discusses collecting solar radiation data from five stations in different locations in Arizona. The authors define exceedance probability as the probability of daily radiation being below an expected value. They use normalized distributions and simple linear regression to predict monthly exceedance probabilities and compare them to actual probabilities calculated from later test data. The document discusses setting up the model, including normalizing the data distributions and using data before 2011 to predict and data from 2011-2014 to test the predictions.
Here are sample responses to the scenarios provided:
1. I would wear warm winter clothes like a thick coat, hat, gloves and boots. This is because at 60 degrees north latitude in January, it would be very cold as this location is within the Arctic circle and experiencing winter.
2. I would wear lightweight clothes like shorts and short sleeves since it would be hot and humid. This is because at 10 degrees north latitude in February, it would experience little seasonal variation and remain warm throughout the year being close to the equator.
3. I would wear summer clothes like t-shirt and pants. Though it would be warmer than winter, the temperature would still be milder than locations closer to the equator. This
Similar to 20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_spring_sun (10)
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
How to Implement a Strategy: Transform Your Strategy with BSC Designer's Comp...Aleksey Savkin
The Strategy Implementation System offers a structured approach to translating stakeholder needs into actionable strategies using high-level and low-level scorecards. It involves stakeholder analysis, strategy decomposition, adoption of strategic frameworks like Balanced Scorecard or OKR, and alignment of goals, initiatives, and KPIs.
Key Components:
- Stakeholder Analysis
- Strategy Decomposition
- Adoption of Business Frameworks
- Goal Setting
- Initiatives and Action Plans
- KPIs and Performance Metrics
- Learning and Adaptation
- Alignment and Cascading of Scorecards
Benefits:
- Systematic strategy formulation and execution.
- Framework flexibility and automation.
- Enhanced alignment and strategic focus across the organization.
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Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
[To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This presentation is a curated compilation of PowerPoint diagrams and templates designed to illustrate 20 different digital transformation frameworks and models. These frameworks are based on recent industry trends and best practices, ensuring that the content remains relevant and up-to-date.
Key highlights include Microsoft's Digital Transformation Framework, which focuses on driving innovation and efficiency, and McKinsey's Ten Guiding Principles, which provide strategic insights for successful digital transformation. Additionally, Forrester's framework emphasizes enhancing customer experiences and modernizing IT infrastructure, while IDC's MaturityScape helps assess and develop organizational digital maturity. MIT's framework explores cutting-edge strategies for achieving digital success.
These materials are perfect for enhancing your business or classroom presentations, offering visual aids to supplement your insights. Please note that while comprehensive, these slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be complete for standalone instructional purposes.
Frameworks/Models included:
Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
McKinsey’s Ten Guiding Principles of Digital Transformation
Forrester’s Digital Transformation Framework
IDC’s Digital Transformation MaturityScape
MIT’s Digital Transformation Framework
Gartner’s Digital Transformation Framework
Accenture’s Digital Strategy & Enterprise Frameworks
Deloitte’s Digital Industrial Transformation Framework
Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Framework
PwC’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cisco’s Digital Transformation Framework
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DXC Technology’s Digital Transformation Framework
The BCG Strategy Palette
McKinsey’s Digital Transformation Framework
Digital Transformation Compass
Four Levels of Digital Maturity
Design Thinking Framework
Business Model Canvas
Customer Journey Map
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2. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S1.1.1: Spring solar GHI availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)
m/s
Stage A: Solar GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) Resource Assessment
Solar PV energy potential: Where is it the sunniest?
Dark red regions of this map shows where global solar GHI is highest in spring, and lighter yellow regions
where it is lowest.
N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.
* Reanalysis information comes from an objective combination of observations and numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, to
generate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
3. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S1.1.2: Spring solar GHI inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)
m/s
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Solar PV energy volatility: Where does the solar radiation vary the greatest?
Darker red regions of this map show where global solar GHI varies the most from one year to the next in
spring, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.
N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
4. Climate Forecasting Unit
Europe
Spring solar GHI availability Spring solar GHI inter-annual variability
m/s
Areas of
interest: N.
Continent
S.Sahal/
Zimbabwe/
Zambia/
Mozambique
S.E.Continent/
N.E.Pakistan/
N.E.Afghanistan/
Tajikistan
N-N.E.
Australia
S.America Africa Asia Australia
N.E.Mexico/
W.USA
N.America
France/
N.W.Spain
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Where is solar PV energy resource potential and variability highest?
By comparing both the spring global solar GHI resource availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen
that there are several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable.
These regions are most vulnerable to solar GHI variability over climate timescales, and are therefore of
greatest interest for seasonal forecasting in spring.
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
5. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.1.1: Spring solar GHI ensemble mean correlation
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
time
forecast
+ 1.0
obs. forecast
- 1.0
forecast
example 1
forecast
- 1.0
example 2
example 3
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in spring 1 month ahead, is partially
shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a spring solar GHI forecast, made every year
since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variability over time,
the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
Can the solar forecast mean tell us about
the solar GHI resource variability
at a specific time?
SolarGHI
6. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.1.1: Spring solar GHI ensemble mean correlation
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in spring
seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no
available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random
prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
Can the solar forecast mean tell us about
the solar GHI resource variability
at a specific time?
7. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.1.2: Spring solar GHI CR probability skill score
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
time
forecast
+ 1.0
obs. forecast
- 1.0
forecast
example 1
forecast
- 1.0
example 2
example 3
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
2nd
validation of the climate forecast system:
The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in spring 1 month ahead, is fully
shown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in the
previous map) of a spring solar GHI forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over the
same period. If they follow the same magnitude of variability over time, the skill is positive (example 2).
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
Can the solar forecast distribution tell us
about the magnitude of the solar GHI
resource variability and its uncertainty at
specific time?
SolarGHI
8. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.1.2: Spring solar GHI CR probability skill score
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
2nd
validation of the climate forecast system:
Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in spring
seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no
available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random
prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
Can the solar forecast distribution tell us
about the magnitude of the solar GHI
resource variability and its uncertainty at
specific time?
9. Climate Forecasting Unit
Europe
Areas of
interest:
E.Chile/S.SE
Argentina/
N.E.Brasil
Indonesia/
W.Philippines/
Cambodia/Thailand/
Vietnam/UAE/
Oman/S.Pakistan/
S.Iran/Afghanistan
N.Australia/
Pacific Isles
S.America Africa
Asia
Australia
E.USA
N.America
North Sea/
S.France/
E.Europe
Spring solar GHI magnitude, and its uncertainty
forecast skill
Spring solar GHI variability forecast skill
Solar GHI variability
forecast skill only
Solar GHI magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skill
S.Moz-
ambique
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?
By comparing both the spring global solar GHI forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there are
several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI forecasts are skilful in assessing its variability, magnitude
and uncertainty. These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational spring wind forecasts,
and are therefore of greatest interest to seasonal solar GHI forecasting in spring.
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
10. Climate Forecasting Unit
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
Magnitude and uncertainty forecast skillVariability forecast skill
m/sm/sm/s
SPRING Wind Forecasts
These four maps compare the seasonal spring solar GHI global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside the
spring global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability map (top). It can be seen that there are several
key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in assessing its variability, magnitude and
uncertainty, and the solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where spring
seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.
EuropeAreas of
Interest:
(Forecast skill)
E.Brazil
Indonesia/
W.Philippines/
Cambodia/Thailand/
Vietnam/UAE/
Oman/S.Pakistan/
S.Iran/Afghanistan
W.
S.America Africa
Asia
Australia
Mexico/
S.Canada
N.America
North Sea/
S.France/
E.Europe
S.Moz-
ambique
Europe S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.America
S.E.Continent/
N.E.Pakistan/
N.E.Afghanistan/
Tajikistan
France/
N.W.Spain
Areas of
Interest:
(Resources)
N-N.E.Australia
Solar GHI resource inter-annual variabilitySolar GHI resource availability
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Variability forecast skill
Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?
Where is solar resource potential + volatility highest
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
N.E.Mexico/
W.USA
N.
Continent
S.Sahal/
Zimbabwe/
Zambia/
Mozambique
E.Chile/S.SE
Argentina/
N.E.Brasil
N.Australia/
Pacific Isles
E.USA
11. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
S.America
E.BrasilE.Brasil
W.
Australia
N.Australia
S.America
Fig. S3.1.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) spring 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
This operational solar forecast shows the probability of global solar GHI to be higher (red), lower (blue) or
normal (white) over the forthcoming spring season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years. As
the forecast season is spring 2011, this is an example of solar GHI forecast information that could have been
available for use within a decision making process in February 2011.
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
Europe
S.France
Africa
S.Mozambique
Indonesia/ W.Philippines/
Cambodia/ Thailand/
Vietnam/ N.E.Afghanistan
Asia
12. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
The key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology.
These regions demonstrate where spring seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential
for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in spring (Stage B) and/or
lower solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).
Fig. S3.1.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) spring 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
S.America
E.BrasilE.Brasil
W.
Australia
N.Australia
S.America Europe
S.France
Africa
S.Mozambique
Indonesia/ W.Philippines/
Cambodia/ Thailand/
Vietnam/ N.E.Afghanistan
Asia
13. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
This does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational solar GHI forecast for
these regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to their corresponding
limitations. The primary limitations to a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or the low risk of
variability in solar GHI for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.
Fig. S3.1.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) spring 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
SPRING Solar PV Forecasts
(March + April + May)
S.America
E.BrasilE.Brasil
W.
Australia
N.Australia
S.America Europe
S.France
Africa
S.Mozambique
Indonesia/ W.Philippines/
Cambodia/ Thailand/
Vietnam/ N.E.Afghanistan
Asia
14. Climate Forecasting Unit
The research leading to these results has received funding
from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme
(FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:
CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)
EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)
SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)