4. The Millennium Project
... is a new kind of think tank
It is global:
Geographically,
Institutionally, and
Subject focus
…established in 1996
…after a 3-year feasibility study
5. Methods we’ll go over now
1. Scanning
2. Futures Wheel
3. Cross Impact Analysis
4. Delphi (conventional and real-time)
5. State of the Future Index - SOFI
6. Scenarios
7. Collective Intelligence
8. …and if time Frameworks, an example
6. Futures Research Methodology
Version 2.0 (spring 2004)
1. Introduction & Overview 15. Simulation and Games
2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, Intuition
3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting
4. Futures Wheel 18. S&T Road Mapping
5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight
7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling
8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI
9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software
10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept
11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning
12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26. Causal Layered Analysis
13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27. Integration, Comparisons, and
14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods
7.
8. Futures Research Methodology
Version 3.0 (2009.4)
1. Introduction to the Futures Research 21. Participatory Methods
1.5 Evaluation and organization of Methods 22. Simulation and Games
2. Environmental Scanning 23. Genius Forecasting and Intuition
3. The Delphi Method 24. Visioning for Strategic Planning
4. Real-Time Delphi 25. Normative Forecasting
5. The Futures Wheel 26. TRIZ
6. The Futures Polygon 27. S&T Road Mapping
i7. Trend Impact Analysis 28. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
8. Cross-Impact Analysis 29. Text Mining for Technology Foresight
9. Wild Cards 30. Agent Modeling (demo software)
10. Structural Analysis 31. Prediction Markets
11. The Systems Perspectives 32. Forecasting By Artificial Neural Networks
12. Decision Modeling 33. State of the Future Index
l13. Substitution Analysis 34. SOFI Software System
14. Statistical Modeling 35. Multiple Perspective Concept
l15. Technology Sequence 36. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning
16. Morphological Analysis 37. Heuristics Modeling
17. Relevance Trees 38. Personal Futures
18. Scenarios 39. Causal Layered Analysis
19. Interactive Scenarios (software) 40. Linking Methods
20. Robust Decisionmaking 41. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers
9. The Future will be more complex
and change more rapidly…
…than most people think
• The factors that made such changes are
changing faster now, than 25 years ago
• Therefore, the next 25 years should make the
speed of change over the last 25 years seem
slow
• Hence, we need to upgrade futures
assessment and strategy capacities
10. UN
Universities Organizations
Millennium
Project Governments
Corporations
NGOs
… May become a TransInstitution
11. 46 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local
views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and
conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and
advanced training.
12. Building on a
15-year
tradition
• By and for businesses,
governments, universities,
NGOs, international
organizations, and
consultants
• Globalization requires
global perspectives and
global foresight for
improved strategic
thinking
13. Number of People affected by
Natural Disasters
All this happened in 2010:
Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters – leads
consortium that feeds the UN data:
• 373 disasters;
• 296,800 people killed
• 207 million people affected
• $109 billion estimated damages
Swiss Re: $222 billion economic losses by
man-made and natural disasters
14. The Long-range Climate Problem
• Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere leads to
proliferation of microbes that emit H2S (hydrogen sulfide - a
very poisonous gas)
• Increased H2S also depletes the Ozone Layer
• 1000 ppm of CO2 is the “point of no return”
• After which H2S is produced in huge quantities in the ocean;
inexorable path to levels of H2S and radiation more than
enough to wipe out the bulk of mammals on the land,
including humans.
• Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky and AAAS ref:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=impact-
from-the-deep
16. Global Energy – some items
• Next 25 years: World energy demand up 40-50%
• Energy efficiencies can help
• But fossil fuels will dominate unless major changes, even
though majority of US/UK new energy from renewables
• Coal plants have to be retrofitted for carbon
sequestration, pending carbon tax incentives
• Maybe carbon re-use from coal plants for nanotube
production
• Exxon $600 million investment for biofuels from algae.
17. Resources-Related Geopolitical Topics
North Pole Competition for
Ratio of Middle East
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Increases
Relative to Others
Bolivia Lithium
Potential Cartel
China-Africa
New energy
alliances &
resource
colonialism
17
18. General Geopolitical Topics
US - China Climate Change
Apollo-like Success or failure of
climate change cap & trade and
Carbon Taxes
goal/program Revolutions in
the Middle East
and Terrorism
Global Issue
Water scarcity
18
19. Global Electricity Issues
By 2050 an additional 2.2 billion people will be added, 5-7 billion
of the 9 billion will live in high urban concentrations, economic
growth will accelerate, 300-425 nuclear power plants will be
closed, electric cars will increase. Where will the extra electricity
come from ? Fossil Fuels ?
Environmental Impacts
Nuclear power ?
Security and Env. Impacts
Alternatives from earth ?
Enough for megacities?
Energy from Solar Satellites ? Storage problems and cost
No greenhouse gases
No nuclear waste
Enough for the world
No storage problems
21. 유엔미래포럼의 역사를 통한 미래예측
유엔미래포럼 회장 제롬 글렌, 40년전 예측
Era/Age Product Power Wealth Place War Time
시대 제품 권력 부의척도 장소 전쟁 시기
Agricultural/
Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical
농경시대 식량/자원 종교 토지 농지/자원 토지 천체주기
(7천년)
Industrial Nation-State
Machine Capital Factory Resources Linear
산업시대 국가(1848 프
기계 자본 공장 자원 선형
(2백년) 랑스 혁명)
Information Info
Access
service Corporation Office Perception Flexible
정보화시대 접속(google
정보서비 기업 (노키아) 사무실 인지/인식 유연성
(50년) 90억개 문서)
스
Conscious
Technology/ Individual Motion Identity
Linkage Being 동작
Climate Change 개개인 정체성 Invented
네트워크/ 존재 (1인 기업,
[15년] 국민=대통령 아웃소싱, (역사갈등, 발명
기후산업 (인구 = 국력)
의식기술/기후산 네트워킹) 동북공정)
업시대
4 / 41
44. Collective Intelligence (CI)
• CI is an emergent property from synergies
among data/information/intelligence,
software/hardware, and experts, that
continually learns from feedback to produce
just in time knowledge for better decisions than
these elements acting alone.
• Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another.
45. GENIS (Global Energy Network
and Information System)
• The Global Energy Network (GEN), providing
communications and collaboration capabilities for a
worldwide community of experts and others working on,
or concerned with, energy issues;
• The Global Energy Information System (GEIS), a
repository (knowledge base) and associated interactive
access facility for as much of the world's total knowledge
(actual content, pointers to external systems, and ability
to mashup from other databases into one integrated set
of outputs) about energy as can be accumulated.
48. An Information unit can be:
• linked with ‘attributes’ in the column at the right
• edited wikipedia-like by GEN
• Receive additional inputs to be added to open-ended non-peer
reviewed
52. Conventional Delphi
• First developed at RAND in the 1960’s
• A means of eliciting and combining expert judgments while
avoiding the pitfalls of conference room confrontations.
• Used a sequential questionnaires, each building on the
previous round.
• Required features:
– Participants guaranteed anonymity
– Feedback of reason for extreme opinions
• Has been used in thousands of studies
• But time consuming
53. Real-Time Delphi
• Developed in 2004 and published in Technological
Forecasting and Social Change.
• Idea was to use modern technology to increase the
efficiency of the Delphi process
• Rapid collection of expert judgment to aid in rational
decision making.
• With Internet, participants can see feedback instantly,
participate where and when is convenient.
• Roundless – Participant returns to edit as many times
as he/she likes until the deadline
55. Use of Delphi with scenarios
drafts with fill in the blanks
• Use of Delphi to fill in the blanks – engage
panel in the writing
• Normative scenarios – MEP scenarios asked
for increased plausibility
• Descriptive scenarios – DOE – S&T Scenarios –
open for cause or effect sections – online at
our website.
56. State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• What do we mean by a better future?
• Very specifically – quantifiable indicators with reliable data over 20 years
• Projected ten years from synthesis of variables to help answer the
question “Is the outlook for the future improving?”
• A tool for
• Policy analysis
• Improving discussion about the future
• Education
• National comparisons
• Company planning
57. Example of SOFI variables:
Infant mortality
Food availability
Access to fresh water
GNP per capita
CO2 emissions Comparison of SOFI's
Literacy
Wars 1.2
AIDS deaths 1.1
Terrorist attacks 1 2001
Debt ratio
2002
Unemployment 0.9
2003
Calories per capita 0.8 2004
Health care 0.7 2005
Forest lands
Rich poor gap 0.6
0.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
58. Report Card for the World
Where are we winning? Where are we losing?
• GDP per capita grew • CO2 emissions grew
• Calories per capita increased • Unemployment increased
• Life expectancy grew • Forest Lands dropped
• Literacy grew • Rich Poor Gap grew
• Infant Mortality dropped • AIDs Deaths grew
• Access to Fresh Water • Developing Country Debt
improved increased
• Access to Health Care • Terrorist Attacks more diverse
improved
• School Enrollment Improved
• Reducing conflicts
59. INFANT MORTALITY per 1000
NUMBER CONFLICTS
% POVERTY ($1/DAY)
% LACKING WATER
POPULATION GROWTH*10
PHYSICIANS/10000
1987
% WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS
1997
CALORIES/CAP/100 2007
%INTERNET USERS 2017
GDP/CAP/100
LIFE EXPECTANCY
% SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
% LITERACY
0 20 40 60 80 100
60. % VOTING POPULATION
CO2 (M TONS)
CORRUPTION (TI*100/7)
HOMICIDES / MIL 1987
1997
2007
% UNEMPLOYMENT * 10
2017
TEMPERATURE ANOM* 100
TERRORISM (kill,
wound)/1000
0 20 40 60 80 100
61. Delphi: Realtime Delphi=
리얼타임 델파이기법
• Define questions, rating assumptions
• Select panel
• Distribution – Interactive, file, paper, RT
• Feedback to Round 2
• Options for interviews
• Options for fill in the blanks in scenarios
62. Real Time Delphi (or RT Delphi)
• It is “round-less” but cumulative and based on feedback
– a participant can determine how many rounds or times they revise or add
responses
– Every time they come back to the on-line matrix, they can see new
comments and ratings entered since they last signed on, and they can see
their previous answers in relation to the others. They then have the
ability to change their responses
• Futurists and Planners can use an RT Delphi to:
– Systemically collect, store, feedback, and rate the best thinking from a
range of the best minds that are not easily assembled in a meeting
– Define and weight criteria for important & controversial decisions
– Add and rate alternative decision options
– Provide logic and traceability to decision making
• RT Delphi makes the approach asynchronous, and efficient
63. The Matrix CODE
Criteria in this row
Criteria >>> Quality Feasibility Average judgments
Avg.: 2 Avg.: 2 of the group
Responses: 25 Responses: 23
Weights >>> Number of responses
2 2
so far
Rationale Rationale
Drop down menu
Your response;
Avg.: 6 Avg.: 8
Responses: 24
Red cells mean
Responses: 25
Proposed big difference
5 6
Decision 1…N Place for you to enter
Rationale Rationale reasons and see others
Alternate solutions all
remaining rows
64. 한국사회의 미래예측과 교육의 대응전략
모색에 관한 연구 (2006년 11월)
(사)유엔미래포럼의 교육부 제출 프로젝트
□ 미래사회 메가트렌드
○ 인구구성의 변화
○ Global화
○ 첨단기술의 발달
○ 라이프 스타일의 변화
○ 노동시장의 변화
65. □ 미래교육 메가트렌드
○ 학습공간의 다원화
○ 지식정보기기 활용과 선발∙평가의 다양화
○ 지적 능력 보강프로그램을 통한 맞춤형 개별교육
○ e-teacher와 사이버학습
○ next job을 위한 교육과정
○ 뜨는 학과와 지는 학과들
○ 보이지 않는 대학
○ 증가하는 교육 유목민
○ 오픈소스 교육
○ 게임으로 즐기는 학습
66. □ 연구의 내용 및 범위
○ 2030년의 사회변화에 대한 전망
- 사회변화를 이끌어 갈 주요 동력과 그 영향력
- 주목할 사회변화에 대한 시나리오 작성
- 교육에 충격으로 다가올 새로운 변수 탐색
○ 미래사회의 주요 트렌드가 교육에 미칠 영향
- 인구의 변화추세와 학생 인구, 교원 인력의 변동
- 세계화 추세와 노동시장, 교육시장의 변화
- 과학기술의 발달이 교육에 미칠 영향
- 다민족화, 다문화화의 경향이 교육에 미칠 영향
- 국가와 경제가 교육에 영향을 미치는 변화 예측
○ 미래의 변화에 대한 교육의 대응전략
- 교육에 영향을 미칠 주요 세력들에 대한 범주화 및 개념화
- 미래사회에 요구되는 새로운 교육 패러다임에 대한 전망
- 미래의 국가발전을 위한 인적자원 개발 전략 탐색
- 주요 국가들의 미래대응 전략에 대한 분석과 시사점 도출
67. (1) 적시학습(Just in time learning): 적시적소에서 최신 업데이트 된 집단지능(Collective Intelligence)을 이용,
불필요한 암기과정을 줄이고, 몇 년, 몇 달씩 묵은 교사의 지식이나 교과서 지식 대체
1) 전통적 도서관 소멸 2) 유비쿼터스 환경 조성(교육 소프트웨어 개발 필요) 3) 교사훈련이 변화 4) 학습연령구분
소멸 5) 교육 커리큘럼 변화 6) 교육교구변화(백과사전이 사라짐, 커뮤니티 데이터베이스 확립, 가상현실 이용증가)
(2) 통합평생교육: 지식의 수명이 짧아져 지속적인 교육 업데이트 필요. 노동인구의 감소로 노령인구도 계속
경제인구로 남아야 하기 때문에 다양한 연령대와 경력, 배경을 가진 사람들을 위한 교육커리큘럼과 기관 필요
1) 멀티플레이어에 대한 요구 증가. 노동력 감소로 개인이 여러 가지 역할을 수행하게 됨. 점차 다양한
기술보유자를 요구하게 됨 2) 새로운 학문 산업이 나오게 됨 3) 정부, NGO, 기업 등 학교 뿐 아니라 교육을
담당하는 기관의 다양화와 통합
(3) 개인능력향상 물질(영양) 공급: 각 두뇌의 기능에 따라 기능을 항진하는 물질을 개발하여 특정 기능을 강화.
자기 몸에 대한 자가진단도 가능하여 몸이 필요로 하는 양분을 선택공급, 신체건강 증진
1) 공급방법 연구 필요(공급방법이 나오면 영양공급센터 이슈가 나옴, 두뇌영양 관리사 직종과 상업적 영양카페
등도 출현가능)
(4) 시뮬레이션 이용: 가상공간 활용 시뮬레이션교육 보편화, 기본적인 글쓰기나 수학은 게임이나 교육용
프로그램으로 대체 1) 즉각적 교육이 가능해지고 이를 위한 특성 교사훈련 필요 2) 교육 콘텐츠 개발 -
사회동력산업으로 육성 가능 3) 교육장소 제한 사라지며, 원거리학습 가능 4) 3D를 이용한 수업이 가능하고, 교육
소프트웨어 시장 확대 5) 현실공간이 많이 필요 없어 학교건물 축소
(5) Web 30.0: 집단지능 더욱 섬세하게 발달
1) 집단지능(Collective Intelligence) 증가 2) 교사와 학생관계 변화: 학생도 교사만큼 전문적인 지식의 깊이에
접속할 수 있어 학생과 교사가 서로 함께 배우는 현상 발생
(6) 두뇌공학발달: 컴퓨터처럼 인간의 뇌 업데이트. 뇌 전체에 대한 맵(map)이 완성되어 각 부분의 기능 및
메커니즘 밝혀져 뇌 기능 강화. 치매 같은 뇌 질환도 사라지고 모두 높은 지능을 갖게 되어 개인의 업무 수행력 향상
69. The Matrix CODE
Criteria >>> Quality Feasibility
Criteria in this row
Avg.: 2 Avg.: 2 Average judgments
Weights >>> Responses: 25 Responses: 23 of the group
2 2 Number of responses
Rationale Rationale
so far
Drop down menu
Avg.: 6 Avg.: 8 Your response;
Responses: 24 Responses: 25 Red cells mean
Proposed big difference
5 6
Decision 1…N
Rationale Rationale Place for you to enter
reasons and see others
Alternate solutions all
remaining rows
70. 학습사회 비전2030 RT Delphi, 미래 교육전문가델파이
2006년 12월
www.realtimedelphi.com
이메일 주소를 아이디로 등록하여 회원등록을 한 후, edu 암호를 넣고 19개의 질문에 답하면
전세계 교육전문가들의 델파이에 합류.
연구결과 참고하여 질문에 답하려면 click hear to see reference에서 한 문항 당 20-30개 링크로
다양한 자료 참고.
Questionnaire
Number Possible Development Likelihood by 2030 (%)
National programs for improving collective 70.0
intelligence Likelihood by 2030
Some richer as well as lower income countries have (by
this year of 2030) made improving collective intelligence The average group answer: 65.8
a national goal; this includes improving individual as
1 well as intelligence for their nations-as-whole. Respondents: 6
지구촌 대부분의 국가는 2030년에는 공동/집합지능을 개선하
는 것을 국가의 목표로 삼고 국가전체의 지능 혹은 개개인의 Precursors & Consequences (page 2) click here
지적인 능력을 개선하기 위해 노력한다.
Click here to see references
Go
71. SOFI Computation:
Full Analysis
Estimates of Best
and Worst Values
Raw Data for Baseline Calculation
Each Variable Statplan
Trend Impact SOFI
Analysis Calculation
Event Statements
Event/ Variable Sheet 2 Sheet 3
Matrix
Estimates of Sheet 1 Variables:
Probability and Best and Worst
Impacts Weights
72. Design of national SOFIs
“국가미래지수” 개발 디자인
• What variables should be included in a national SOFI?
• How can very different variables be combined?
• How to avoid double accounting?
• How can the variables be forecast?
• How can the variables be weighted?
• How can the variables be normalized?
• How to create country-specific scenarios for Trend
Impact Analysis?
74. Use of Delphi with scenarios
drafts with fill in the blanks
• Use of Delphi to fill in the blanks – engage
panel in the writing
• Normative scenarios – MEP scenarios asked
for increased plausibility
• Descriptive scenarios – DOE – S&T Scenarios –
open for cause or effect sections – online at
our website.
75. State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• What do we mean by a better future?
• Very specifically – quantifiable indicators with reliable data over 20 years
• Projected ten years from synthesis of variables to help answer the
question “Is the outlook for the future improving?”
• A tool for
• Policy analysis
• Improving discussion about the future
• Education
• National comparisons
• Company planning
78. Futures Wheel Method
Most commonly used to:
• think through possible impacts of current trends or potential
future events
• organize thoughts about future events or trends
• create forecasts within alternative scenarios
• show complex interrelationships
• display other futures research
• develop multi-concepts
• nurture a futures-conscious perspective
• aid in group brainstorming.
Glenn (1994)
79. Evaluating the Futures Wheel
Method
Strengths Weaknesses
Easily grasped by participants ‘Intellectual Spaghetti’
Stimulates complex, systematic Results vary in consistency
thinking
Provides a clear visual map of Limited by knowledge and
complex interactions perceptions of participants
Flexibility for respondents Information overload
Fast data collection Complex and time consuming data
analysis
No transcription of data required Higher cost per respondent
Speculative nature of data
80. Conclusions
• Useful for exploring the potential outcomes of trends
• Output can be used to simulate strategies – allowing plans to
be modified
• A combination of futures methods may be most appropriate
– e.g. brainstorming delphi surveys futures wheel mapping
cross impact analysis scenario writing
– Futures wheel useful in adding conceptual and contextual richness to
traditional quantitative methods
81. Futures Research Methods
• Environmental Scanning System
• Futures Wheel 개발자 제롬 글렌
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Scenarios
• RT Delphi
• SOFI
• Making Futures research effective in decision-making
You need to explain all this but not the first thing in your talk. Immediately overly bureaucratic, concerned more with structure than substance. You need to establish connection to your audience first. What are their concerns, needs? Your first task is to address those directly. “What are your greatest fears about the future?” “What are your greatest hopes?”
