1) The IMF projections are based on two big assumptions: that the EU will gradually ease financial conditions in peripheral economies and that the US will prevent the "fiscal cliff" and raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner. 2) The IMF projections show global growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013, with downside risks. 3) The probability of global growth falling below 2% in 2013, which would be a global recession, has risen to 17% according to the IMF, up from 4% in April 2012.

1. Yoshio TSUJI Oct 12, 2012
IMF’s projections
are based on two big assumptions.
(YoY, %)
Actual Projection Difference from
Apr. WEO
2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013
World 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6 -0.2 -0.3
US 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.1 0.1 -0.1
Euro 2.0 1.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5
Japan 4.5 -0.8 2.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.3
China 10.4 9.2 7.8 8.2 -0.2 -0.2
1)EU will gradually ease financial conditions in periphery economies.
2)US will prevent the “fiscal cliff” and raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely
manner.
(The fiscal cliff implies a tightening of 4% of GDP, but IMF assumes only
1.25%)
3.6%
Skewed to
downside
The probability of global growth falling below 2% in 2013, which would
be consistent with recession in DM and a serious slowdown in EM, has
risen to 17%, up from 4% in April 2012.
1
(Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-2012)

2. Which is correct?
(Source: BLS)
873K ?
=142,101-142,974
114K
=133,500-133,386
2