SET Analysis




                       the need for public test facilities




                Jos Beurskens, SET Analysis
                (ECN, TU Delft, TPWind)

               Inaugration 4th Sirris/OWI Laboratory
               Anwerpen, 27 September 2012

          2012-09-27                                         1
SET Analysis




                             This presentation

               •   Markets & Applications
               •   Research & Development drivers
               •   Facilities; needs, present and future facilities
               •   Concluding observations




          2012-09-27                                                  2
Market
SET Analysis
                                Market development
                                         Total installed offshore wind power:             4335 MW (1.8% of 240GW)
                                         Total number of projects:                        61
                                         Average power per project:                       83 MW/project
                                         Average power of 10 smallest projects:           8.1 MW/project
                                         Average power of 10 largest projects:            198 MW/project
                                         Under construction:                              3762 MW / 13 projects
                                45,000                                                                           250,000




                                36,000                                                                           200,000




                                                                                                                           Cumulative MW
                                27,000                                                                           150,000
                  MW per year




                                18,000                                                                           100,000




                                 9,000                                                                           50,000




                                    0                                                                            0
                                     1983               1990         1995          2000          2005         2011
                                                                            Year
                  Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

          2012-09-27                                                                                                                       3
SET Analysis                                                                                 Market


                  Annual Global Wind Power Development
                       125,000




                       100,000




                        75,000
                 MW




                        50,000




                        25,000




                            0
                            1990                                             2011          2016           2021

                Source: BTM Consult - A Part   Offshore (Pridiction)   Prediction           Offshore (Forecast)
                of Navigant - March 2012       Forecast                Existing capacity



          2012-09-27                                                                                              4
Market

                         Wind turbine product cycles
SET Analysis


                         (based on rotor diameter)




                                X                    Offshore




  Source: DEWI Magazin




          2012-09-27                                               5
R&D
                Size
SET Analysis




          2012-09-27         6
New applications are the motor of innovations and
                 R&D; applies in particular to offshore
SET Analysis




                                   Remote
                                    Rural
                                   Islands


                                                                   Offshore
                        Cold               Mainstream Wind
                       Climate
                                                   Power
                                           Mainstream Wind Power


                                 Hot
                                 Deserts


  VTT


          2012-09-27                                                          7
SET Analysis   Maturity of the technologies                                                                                    R&D


                                                                               Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore

                           Rated power [MW]
               10




                1
                                              Grid connected turbines; medium scale



                                Hybrid systems (AWDS)                                    Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land
               0.1



                                                              Grid connected turbines;
               0.01                                           small scale


                                                    Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV)
                                                                                                  Circle areas indicate maturity

                                                                                                                    Rotor diameter [m]
                       0                                25                50                 75               100                  125


          2012-09-27                                                                                                                     8
SET Analysis     Up scaling                                  R&D




                       Cost of support structures are dominant
                        and are relatively insensitive to load
                                  carrying capacity



                       The wind turbines should be as big as
                                     possible !




          2012-09-27                                               9
SET Analysis            Up scaling                                             R&D



                         For the engineer:             For the economist:
               mass ~ (D³)                         investment cost ~ (D³)
               cross section ~ (D²)                energy output ~ (D²)
               stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D   COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D




                        Development of advanced materials
                        with a higher strength to mass ratio
                       Cost reductions to be achieved in other parts
                        of the system: cables, foundations, O&M
          2012-09-27                                                                     10
SET Analysis                                                  R&D


                        Up scaling drives R&D


                       • Materials for blades and structures
                       • Aerodynamic control of blades
                       • Weight: gravity loads and deformations of
                         heavy components (gear boxes)




          2012-09-27                                                 11
R&D
SET Analysis
                   Materials & Structures
                       Increased strength / weight

                                                             Technology Evolution with Blade Size


                                           30,00                                                         Gl-P HLU
                                                                                                         Gl-P RI
                                           25,00                                                         Gl-Ep RI
                                                                                                         Gl-Ep Prep
                                           20,00
                         Blade Mass (tn)




                                                                                                         Gl-C Hybrid 1
                                                                                                         Gl-C Hybrid 2
                                           15,00
                                                                                                         New Tech 1
                                                                                                         New Tech 2
                                           10,00
                                                                                                         New Tech 3

                                            5,00                                                         REFERENCE
                                                                                                         Ep Prep
                                            0,00                                                         P RI
                                                   10   20      30       40       50     60         70   P HLU
                                                                  Rotor Radius (m )                      Hybrid




                                                                                                          Source: CRES, GR

          2012-09-27                                                                                                           12
R&D
SET Analysis
                    Distributed blade control
                                         Distributed blade control necessary

                                          Wind field




               Photo: Jos Beurskens




          2012-09-27                                                           13
R&D
SET Analysis
               Distributed blade control
                       Faigue load reduction by
                       distributed blade control
                                                        Wind tunnel tests on a scaled smart rotor –
                                                        flapwise root bending moment with and
                                                        without flap activation




• Comparison with Individual Pitch Control:
• 15-25% reduction of fatigue damage equivalent load,
  depending on load case
• Can add up to 30%




          2012-09-27                                                                             14
R&D
                Weight
SET Analysis




                         © Jos Beurskens



          2012-09-27                       15
R&D
                Weight
SET Analysis




               Deformations caused by own weight are
               in the order of magnitude of
               manufacturing tolerances




          2012-09-27                                         16
SET Analysis                                              R&D


                        Other R&D drivers


                       • Generators
                       • Extreme external conditions
                       • Standards & component design specs




          2012-09-27                                            17
R&D
                Generator and Transmission
SET Analysis



                       Classical drive train




                                                                           Jos Beurskens




                                                                         Permanent
                                                                          magnets
                                                     ENERCON




                                          Zephyros
                                                     Direct drive

                                                     HTS (high temperature super
                                                      conductivity)

          2012-09-27                                                                       18
R&D
SET Analysis
                   External Conditions

                                                  hot & dry        cold & dry
                       humidity

                                                                 cold & humid
                             saline air


                                          dusty                     wind classes I, II, III

                          waves
                                                                   extreme wind speed

                            soil                    lightning
                       characteristics                                 turbulence

                                          earthquakes
                                                                complex terrain


          2012-09-27                                                                          19
Facilities
                       Facilities; Why?
SET Analysis


                             Analysis & Modelling            R&D
                                                             (models are not perfect!)

                           Experimental verification        Testing Facilities
                           (=testing) of components         (fragmentary,
                                                            non representative)

                            Design, manufacturing,
                                                            Design standards
                                 application
                                                            for components

                        Experimental verification of wind
                                   turbines                 Field Test Stations
                                                            (most in moderate climates)


                        Experimental verification of wind   Experimental Wind
                                    farms                   Farms
          2012-09-27                                                                      20
SET Analysis                                                        Facilities

                                                  Public Availability   Cost    Innov
                                                 research    of       reduction needs
                                                          Facilities potential up sc

                       Wind turbine                High      High        High     Hig


                       Rotor, blades               High      High      Medium     Hig


                       Mechanical transmission   Medium    Medium        High     Hig


                       Electrical conversion       Low       Low       Medium     Hig


                       Control                   Medium      Low         High     Hig


                       Condition monitoring      Medium      Low         High     Hig

                       Towers
                                                   Low      None       Medium    Med

                       Support structures
                                                   Low       Soon        High     Hig




          2012-09-27                                                             21
SET Analysis           Facilities




                              © Jos Beurskens


          2012-09-27                     22
Facilities
 SET Analysis   Public Test and Research facilities (EU)
                  Location         Wind farm Wind turbine Dedicated WE      Blades &    Foundations   Drive train       Research
                                  Experimental Test stations Wind tunnel    Materials                  and hub         wind turbine


                                     ●!            ●              ●           ●          ●!              ●!              ●!
                  Germany
                 FhG IWES/
                ForWind/DLR
                                                                                                      gearbox teeth


                                    ● ●                          ●            ●                           ●
                    Spain
                   CENER




                                   ●!● ●                         ●!           ●
                Netherlands
                ECN – WMC-
                  TUDelft



                                    ●                                         ●                         ●●
                     GB
                    NaRec




                                    ● ●!                                      ●                          ●
                  Denmark
                    DTU




                                       ●!
                   Sweden



                                                cold climate


                                                                                                        ●!
                    Belgium
                Sirris/OWI (Lab
                      no 4)
                                                                                                        simulated
                                                                                                      external cond.
Selected public test and research facilities                   In red: under construction or planned; In black: exisiting
           2012-09-27                                                                                                             23
Facilities
                Some interesting facilities (1)
SET Analysis


                  (D)
                                    (D)




                             (NL)               (NL)




                                          Photo: Jos Beurskens




          2012-09-27                                                          24
Facilities
                Some interesting facilities (2)
SET Analysis


                 (D)                                      2.85 x 2.85 m2
                (DK)                                      Vmax = 35 m/s
                                    (D)




                                          (NL)

                 (B)
                             (NL)
                                           Manufacturer’s test facilities:

                                           LM, Vestas, Repower,
                                           Kenersys, ZF/Hansen, ………




          2012-09-27                                                         25
Observations (1)
SET Analysis




               • Experimental facilities act as a magnet for industrial high-
                 tech activities, enhance position of local enterprises and
                 facilitates establishing new innovative companies. Local
                 examples: ZF Wind Power/Hansen, CG, Numeca, GeoSea-
                 DEME, 3E, ….
               • Associations are crucial in making needs for facilities
                 explicit (Agoria, Generations (B), WAB (D), EWEA (EU), etc.
               • Unique facilities attract international business.
               • Given de size of the market, increase of testing capacity in
                 selected ares is needed.




          2012-09-27                                                       26
Observations (2)
SET Analysis




                  • (Local) authorities compete with each other in stimulating
                    economic activities, including research infrastructure.
                    Avoiding unnescessary duplication is impossible. Here
                    the EU could play an important role by coordinating and
                    filling gaps by targetted incentives.




          2012-09-27                                                         27
Observations (3)
SET Analysis




                • Industry could benefit from international collaboration
                  between research facilities (compare with IMTS):
                  * codes of practice for testing
                  * developing standards
                  * recognition of joint quality standards (compare to
                  MEASNET)
                  * hosting researchers from industry and partner
                  institutes/universities
                  * mutual recognition of results
                  * identfying need for new research facilities and
                  coordinated lobying, possibly resulting in regional
                  specialisation.


          2012-09-27                                                        28
Congratulations and success
SET Analysis


                                               to Sirris/OWI !




                ©Jos Beurskens




          2012-09-27                                             29

2012 09-27 opening owi-lab-beurskens

  • 1.
    SET Analysis the need for public test facilities Jos Beurskens, SET Analysis (ECN, TU Delft, TPWind) Inaugration 4th Sirris/OWI Laboratory Anwerpen, 27 September 2012 2012-09-27 1
  • 2.
    SET Analysis This presentation • Markets & Applications • Research & Development drivers • Facilities; needs, present and future facilities • Concluding observations 2012-09-27 2
  • 3.
    Market SET Analysis Market development Total installed offshore wind power: 4335 MW (1.8% of 240GW) Total number of projects: 61 Average power per project: 83 MW/project Average power of 10 smallest projects: 8.1 MW/project Average power of 10 largest projects: 198 MW/project Under construction: 3762 MW / 13 projects 45,000 250,000 36,000 200,000 Cumulative MW 27,000 150,000 MW per year 18,000 100,000 9,000 50,000 0 0 1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012 2012-09-27 3
  • 4.
    SET Analysis Market Annual Global Wind Power Development 125,000 100,000 75,000 MW 50,000 25,000 0 1990 2011 2016 2021 Source: BTM Consult - A Part Offshore (Pridiction) Prediction Offshore (Forecast) of Navigant - March 2012 Forecast Existing capacity 2012-09-27 4
  • 5.
    Market Wind turbine product cycles SET Analysis (based on rotor diameter) X Offshore Source: DEWI Magazin 2012-09-27 5
  • 6.
    R&D Size SET Analysis 2012-09-27 6
  • 7.
    New applications arethe motor of innovations and R&D; applies in particular to offshore SET Analysis Remote Rural Islands Offshore Cold Mainstream Wind Climate Power Mainstream Wind Power Hot Deserts VTT 2012-09-27 7
  • 8.
    SET Analysis Maturity of the technologies R&D Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore Rated power [MW] 10 1 Grid connected turbines; medium scale Hybrid systems (AWDS) Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land 0.1 Grid connected turbines; 0.01 small scale Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV) Circle areas indicate maturity Rotor diameter [m] 0 25 50 75 100 125 2012-09-27 8
  • 9.
    SET Analysis Up scaling R&D Cost of support structures are dominant and are relatively insensitive to load carrying capacity The wind turbines should be as big as possible ! 2012-09-27 9
  • 10.
    SET Analysis Up scaling R&D For the engineer: For the economist: mass ~ (D³) investment cost ~ (D³) cross section ~ (D²) energy output ~ (D²) stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D Development of advanced materials with a higher strength to mass ratio Cost reductions to be achieved in other parts of the system: cables, foundations, O&M 2012-09-27 10
  • 11.
    SET Analysis R&D Up scaling drives R&D • Materials for blades and structures • Aerodynamic control of blades • Weight: gravity loads and deformations of heavy components (gear boxes) 2012-09-27 11
  • 12.
    R&D SET Analysis Materials & Structures Increased strength / weight Technology Evolution with Blade Size 30,00 Gl-P HLU Gl-P RI 25,00 Gl-Ep RI Gl-Ep Prep 20,00 Blade Mass (tn) Gl-C Hybrid 1 Gl-C Hybrid 2 15,00 New Tech 1 New Tech 2 10,00 New Tech 3 5,00 REFERENCE Ep Prep 0,00 P RI 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 P HLU Rotor Radius (m ) Hybrid Source: CRES, GR 2012-09-27 12
  • 13.
    R&D SET Analysis Distributed blade control Distributed blade control necessary Wind field Photo: Jos Beurskens 2012-09-27 13
  • 14.
    R&D SET Analysis Distributed blade control Faigue load reduction by distributed blade control Wind tunnel tests on a scaled smart rotor – flapwise root bending moment with and without flap activation • Comparison with Individual Pitch Control: • 15-25% reduction of fatigue damage equivalent load, depending on load case • Can add up to 30% 2012-09-27 14
  • 15.
    R&D Weight SET Analysis © Jos Beurskens 2012-09-27 15
  • 16.
    R&D Weight SET Analysis Deformations caused by own weight are in the order of magnitude of manufacturing tolerances 2012-09-27 16
  • 17.
    SET Analysis R&D Other R&D drivers • Generators • Extreme external conditions • Standards & component design specs 2012-09-27 17
  • 18.
    R&D Generator and Transmission SET Analysis Classical drive train Jos Beurskens Permanent magnets ENERCON Zephyros Direct drive HTS (high temperature super conductivity) 2012-09-27 18
  • 19.
    R&D SET Analysis External Conditions hot & dry cold & dry humidity cold & humid saline air dusty wind classes I, II, III waves extreme wind speed soil lightning characteristics turbulence earthquakes complex terrain 2012-09-27 19
  • 20.
    Facilities Facilities; Why? SET Analysis Analysis & Modelling R&D (models are not perfect!) Experimental verification Testing Facilities (=testing) of components (fragmentary, non representative) Design, manufacturing, Design standards application for components Experimental verification of wind turbines Field Test Stations (most in moderate climates) Experimental verification of wind Experimental Wind farms Farms 2012-09-27 20
  • 21.
    SET Analysis Facilities Public Availability Cost Innov research of reduction needs Facilities potential up sc Wind turbine High High High Hig Rotor, blades High High Medium Hig Mechanical transmission Medium Medium High Hig Electrical conversion Low Low Medium Hig Control Medium Low High Hig Condition monitoring Medium Low High Hig Towers Low None Medium Med Support structures Low Soon High Hig 2012-09-27 21
  • 22.
    SET Analysis Facilities © Jos Beurskens 2012-09-27 22
  • 23.
    Facilities SET Analysis Public Test and Research facilities (EU) Location Wind farm Wind turbine Dedicated WE Blades & Foundations Drive train Research Experimental Test stations Wind tunnel Materials and hub wind turbine ●! ● ● ● ●! ●! ●! Germany FhG IWES/ ForWind/DLR gearbox teeth ● ● ● ● ● Spain CENER ●!● ● ●! ● Netherlands ECN – WMC- TUDelft ● ● ●● GB NaRec ● ●! ● ● Denmark DTU ●! Sweden cold climate ●! Belgium Sirris/OWI (Lab no 4) simulated external cond. Selected public test and research facilities In red: under construction or planned; In black: exisiting 2012-09-27 23
  • 24.
    Facilities Some interesting facilities (1) SET Analysis (D) (D) (NL) (NL) Photo: Jos Beurskens 2012-09-27 24
  • 25.
    Facilities Some interesting facilities (2) SET Analysis (D) 2.85 x 2.85 m2 (DK) Vmax = 35 m/s (D) (NL) (B) (NL) Manufacturer’s test facilities: LM, Vestas, Repower, Kenersys, ZF/Hansen, ……… 2012-09-27 25
  • 26.
    Observations (1) SET Analysis • Experimental facilities act as a magnet for industrial high- tech activities, enhance position of local enterprises and facilitates establishing new innovative companies. Local examples: ZF Wind Power/Hansen, CG, Numeca, GeoSea- DEME, 3E, …. • Associations are crucial in making needs for facilities explicit (Agoria, Generations (B), WAB (D), EWEA (EU), etc. • Unique facilities attract international business. • Given de size of the market, increase of testing capacity in selected ares is needed. 2012-09-27 26
  • 27.
    Observations (2) SET Analysis • (Local) authorities compete with each other in stimulating economic activities, including research infrastructure. Avoiding unnescessary duplication is impossible. Here the EU could play an important role by coordinating and filling gaps by targetted incentives. 2012-09-27 27
  • 28.
    Observations (3) SET Analysis • Industry could benefit from international collaboration between research facilities (compare with IMTS): * codes of practice for testing * developing standards * recognition of joint quality standards (compare to MEASNET) * hosting researchers from industry and partner institutes/universities * mutual recognition of results * identfying need for new research facilities and coordinated lobying, possibly resulting in regional specialisation. 2012-09-27 28
  • 29.
    Congratulations and success SETAnalysis to Sirris/OWI ! ©Jos Beurskens 2012-09-27 29