shell-lng-outlook-2020-march-

1. Royal Dutch Shell
Outlook 2020

2. Royal Dutch Shell
Cautionary note
2
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or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading
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(available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking
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only as of the date of this presentation, February 20, 2020. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake
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We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely
the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

3. Royal Dutch Shell February 2020 3
2019 was also a year of record final investment
decisions (FIDs), with 71 million tonnes of new capacity
being sanctioned, indicating belief in long-term LNG
demand. Increasing uncontracted and flexible supply is
set to offer more options for customers in the future.
The last decade has seen rapid growth in energy
demand and corresponding greenhouse gas
emissions which have created the need for more and
cleaner energy options. A combination of new
policy, favourable economics and partnership with
renewables is driving the momentum for coal-to-gas
switching.
2019 saw record LNG supply growth as the recent
wave of new LNG liquefaction projects nears
completion. Most of this growth was absorbed by
Europe. Year-on-year growth in Asian imports slowed
from highs of 2017 and 2018, but Asia still remains a
growth region. Increased liquidity, new spot trading
mechanisms and a wider variety of indices being used
for long-term contracts point towards LNG becoming
an increasingly flexible commodity.
Gas continues to provide more and
cleaner energy solutions
2019 was a year of record LNG
supply growth
Record supply investment
due to confidence in long-term
LNG demand growth
01 02 03 LNG-powered cruise ship
Nigeria LNG
Seoul
Overview

4. Royal Dutch Shell February 2020 4
Gas continues to provide more
and cleaner energy solutions
01Queensland Curtis Island

5. Royal Dutch Shell
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CO2
emissions
(BT)
Energy
consumption
(mktoe)
Rest of world energy Asia energy
Global emissions (MtCO2)
(RHS)
CO
2
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
Urbanisation
level
OECD East Asia & Pacific
South Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Air
quality
(PM
2.5)
Average WHO safe level (10)
2019 range
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Global
population
(bln)
Annual
population
increase
(mln)
Rest of world population Asia population
Global population (RHS)
Growing population and rising living standards drive
demand for energy with lower emissions
February 2020 5
Source: Shell’s interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1, World Bank, The World Air Quality Index 2019 data
Unsafe air
quality
Increased
urbanisation
Growing
population
Rising energy
demand & emissions

6. Royal Dutch Shell
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Global
North America
Europe
China
India
Share in the energy mix
Renewables and gas expected to replace coal in the
global energy mix
6
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1 2019 data CAGR - Compound annual growth rate
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
Energy demand 1% CAGR
43%
37% 16% 5% -10% 9%
Global energy demand growth by fuel type
BCM
Gas and coal share in the energy mix 2019-2040
February 2020
Gas Coal 2019 2040
India 2030 gas target
China 2030 gas target

7. Royal Dutch Shell
Coal-to-gas switching helping level global CO2 emissions
February 2020 7
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
*Advanced economies Rest of world Global
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie, IEA World Energy Outlook, IEA Carbon Report 2019 data **Power sector coal-to-gas switching in Advanced economies only
*Advanced economies include United States, European Union, Australia, Canada, Chile, Iceland, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland & Turkey
CO2 change
CO2 GT, 2010=0
Coal-to-gas switching CO2 savings
CO2 MT, 2010=0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States China Europe
India Rest of world Global**
Equivalent to
over 50% of
CO2 emissions
from South America for a full year
-57%
CO2
EMISSIONS

8. Royal Dutch Shell
Record coal phase-out and generation reduction in 2019
Opportunity for more displacement of coal in the power sector
April 2019 8
Source: Shell interpretation of national government policy announcements, Carbon Brief, Global Energy Monitor, GlobalData plc and Wood Mackenzie 2019 data
Net change in global coal
generation
TWh
Global coal phase-out capacity
announcements by date
GW
Power capacity by fuel
GW
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020s 2030s 2040s
-
300
600
900
1,200
India China Europe North
America
Rest of
world
Coal Gas Coal 2040 Gas 2040

9. Royal Dutch Shell
Use of coal and other solid fuels outside the power
sector also impacts air quality
February 2020 9
0 200 400 600 800
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Thailand
South Korea
Japan
Indonesia
Brazil
United States
India
China
Coal Other solid fuels
0 50 100 150 200
Brazil
Poland
Vietnam
South Africa
United States
Pakistan
Indonesia
Nigeria
India
China
Coal Other solid fuels
Source: Maplecroft 2018 and Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data H1 2019
*Res & comm: residential and commercial sector and also includes use in cooking and heating BCMe – Billion Cubic Metres equivalent
Coal and solid fuel use in res &
comm* sector
BCMe
Coal and solid fuel use in the
industrial sector
BCMe
Air quality index 2018
Extreme High Medium Low
Risk

10. Royal Dutch Shell
Coal-to-gas switching in the industrial sector
can improve air quality
February 2020 10
Source: Shell’s interpretation of International Gas Union, Financial Times, Central Pollution Control Board (India) data 2018 and 2019
PM: particulate matter SO2: sulfur dioxide
Air quality levels in Morbi, Gujarat
μg/m3
Gas demand post-ban on coal units
in Morbi industrial sector in 2019
Mcm/d
Air quality in India
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
PM2.5 PM10 SO2
2017 2019
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Morbi
Top 20 most
polluted industrial
clusters in 2018
0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x 8x 9x 10x 11x
Number of times above the WHO’s safe limit

11. Royal Dutch Shell
Growth of renewables favours gas in the power mix
February 2020 11
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1, national data and OpenNEM 2019 data
Average thermal load factors
Thermal load factors
South Australia electricity supply December 2019
MW
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Batteries Renewables Gas Net interconnector
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
California UK Spain India
1%
11%
<1%
7%
2%
28%
10%
<1%
Share of wind and solar in generation mix

12. Royal Dutch Shell
Challenges to the role of gas in the energy
transition
February 2020
Need for improved measurement and
reporting and continual reduction in
methane emissions
Methane emissions
Need to drive cost reductions to
make natural gas more affordable
for customers, ensuring it remains
highly competitive compared to
other energy sources
Cost control
Credible routes to deploy clean gas at
scale such as carbon capture and
storage (CCS) and biogas are needed
Future pathways
0
100
200
300
400
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
Biogas production
OECD Non-OECD
Tonnes of CO2 e/toe
0
1
2
3
4
5
Coal Gas
Emissions from coal and gas
Source: Shell interpretation of IPCC Emissions factors and IEA World Energy Outlook data 2019
BCM
Policies
To accelerate change,
governments need to introduce
long-term policies that enable
development of lower-carbon and
renewable sources of energy,
supported by technologies like
CCS. Also, carbon-pricing
mechanisms can help reduce
emissions and encourage the use
of cleaner sources of energy.
Industry to address
12
CO2
Methane
Public perception
Gas faces a challenge from those
arguing to remove all fossil fuels from
the global energy mix. However, the
supply of reliable energy cannot all
be met by renewables– at least not
yet.
Gas is a fuel for today and
tomorrow. It can act as a partner for
renewable sources to offer reliable,
flexible and cost-effective access to
more and cleaner energy at scale,
and all stakeholders must work
harder to ensure public support for
gas to play its full role.
Driven by influencers

13. Royal Dutch Shell
Gas to play a key role in reducing emissions from
hard-to-electrify sectors
February 2020 13
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1 2019 data
Global gas demand growth by sector
BCM
Share of gas demand growth by sector 2019-2040
Gas demand sectors
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2019 Power Industry Res & comm Transport 2040
Gas demand 2% CAGR
40%
28%
23%
9%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Transport
Res & comm
Industry
Power
Asia Europe FSU Americas Mid-East & Africa LNG bunker

14. Royal Dutch Shell
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2019 Domestic
production
Pipeline
imports
LNG
imports
2040
45%
15%
Gas demand 2% CAGR
40%
Asia set to be the key growth region for LNG
February 2020 14
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1 2019 data
Global gas supply by source
BCM
LNG imports by region
BCM
LNG imports into Asia
BCM
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2019 Asia Europe Americas Mid-East
& Africa
2040
LNG demand 4% CAGR
74%
9%
8%
0
150
300
450
600
750
2019 China JKT South
Asia
Rest of
Asia
2040
Asia LNG demand 4% CAGR
23% 1%
28%
48%
9%

15. Royal Dutch Shell February 2020 15
2019 was a year of record
LNG supply growth
02Gibraltar – small-scale LNG import terminal

16. Royal Dutch Shell
LNG trade volume growth
MTPA (DES)
Current wave of LNG capacity additions coming to an end
85% now online
February 2020 16
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit 2019 data
DES: delivered ex-ship
LNG liquefaction capacity additions
MT
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2019 LNG trade volume: 359 MTPA

17. Royal Dutch Shell
Record LNG supply growth absorbed mainly in Europe
February 2020 17
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, Poten & Partners Q4 2018 and 2019 data
LNG supply growth range by country
MTPA
LNG demand growth range by region
MTPA
Previous forecast range 2019
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Australia USA Russia Rest of world
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Asia Europe Americas Middle East & Africa
Actuals 2019

18. Royal Dutch Shell
LNG imports rise by 40 million tonnes in 2019
China continues to be among top three global LNG growth markets
February 2020 18
Net imports: 2019 YoY
MTPA (DES)
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Poten & Partners 2018 and 2019 data
Note: Sweden, Canada, Colombia, Norway, Finland, Malta, Israel, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Kuwait, Brazil, Panama, Poland and Dominican Republic are not included in the above chart as change is minimal
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Previous forecast (consensus) Actuals

19. Royal Dutch Shell
0
25
50
75
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pipeline import LNG import
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gas demand Domestic production
LNG imports continue to meet China’s growing need
for cleaner energy
February 2020 19
Source: Shell interpretation of NDRC 2019 data
China gas demand vs domestic production
BCMA
China LNG and pipeline gas imports
BCMA
12%
7%
16%
34%
18%

20. Royal Dutch Shell
European LNG imports increased by 74% in 2019 with
declining domestic production and pipeline imports …
February 2020 20
Domestic gas production
BCMA
Algerian and Russian pipeline sales
BCMA
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
UK NL Norway
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Algeria Russia
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie, S&P Global Platts and Gazprom Export LLC 2019 data
Russian sales volumes adjusted to reflect standard calorific value (40MJ/m3 at 15°C)
Gas balance
BCMA
400
450
500
550

21. Royal Dutch Shell
… and increased coal-to-gas switching in the power sector
and storage due to mild winter
February 2020 21
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Gas Infrastructure Europe (Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory) 2019 data
Coal-to-gas switching range
$/MMBtu €/tonne CO2
Coal generation vs gas generation
TWh
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Range of coal-to-gas switching TTF gas
ARA coal European carbon price (RHS)
0
25
50
75
100
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Gas generation Coal generation
Year-end gas inventory
BCM
0
25
50
75
100
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
NW Europe Southern Europe
CEE Storage capacity

22. Royal Dutch Shell
Growing industrial gas demand and declining domestic
gas spurs LNG demand in South and South-east Asia
February 2020 22
230
240
250
260
270
2018 Domestic
production
LNG 2019
-9%
109%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
LNG Imports Growth %
230
240
250
260
270
2018 Power Industry Res &
comm
Transport 2019
22%
66%
8% 5%
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit 2019 data
Gas demand growth by sector
BCMA
Gas supply growth by sector
BCMA
2019 LNG imports by country
BCMA Growth
>

23. Royal Dutch Shell
0
25
50
75
100
Japan South Korea
2018 2019
Higher nuclear availability and mild winters reduced
imports into Japan and South Korea
February 2020 23
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Korea Energy Economics Institute 2019 data
Power generation mix includes January through October data. *Winter months are from October through March.2020 includes YTD data
Power generation mix LNG imports
MTPA
5%
7%
23%
26%
30%
29%
42%
41%
39%
38%
27%
25%
17%
18%
6%
7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2018
2019
2018
2019
Japan
South
Korea
Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Renewables Others
6
7
8
9
10
2015/
2016
2016/
2017
2017/
2018
2018/
2019
2019/
2020
Winter* average temperature
Degree Celsius

24. Royal Dutch Shell
US supply adds volume and flexibility to the global LNG
market
February 2020 24
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, US Department of Energy 2019 data
US LNG exports by destination
MT
US LNG deliveries to Asia
MT China % of total US deliveries
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2017 2018 2019
Americas Asia Europe Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2016 2017 2018 2019
China Japan South Korea Other Asia China %

25. Royal Dutch Shell
Global gas prices softened in 2019
February 2020 25
Source: Shell interpretation of ICE, CME, S&P Global Platts 2019 data
Global gas prices Asia spot price US LNG export margins*
$/MMBtu
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Dated Brent JKM TTF Henry Hub
$/MMBtu
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Range 2013-2018 2018 2019
JKM as % of Brent
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
TTF Netback JKM Netback
2018
2019
netback
netback
*Excludes liquefaction fee; netback calculated as: JKM and TTF minus
regasification and transportation cost minus 115% Henry Hub

26. Royal Dutch Shell
Increasingly liquid and transparent spot market
February 2020 26
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, S&P Global Platts and ICE 2019 data
Spot LNG deliveries
Cargoes % of total market
JKM eWindow/Market on Close
Cargoes
ICE JKM LNG futures
Cargoes ‘000 Lots*
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
JKT China South Asia
Middle East Europe Americas
% spot
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2018 2019
Bid Offer Trade
*About 300 lots is equal to 1 cargo

27. Royal Dutch Shell
Evolving contracting structures
February 2020 27
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit 2019 data
Average volume and length of new
contracts
Years MTPA
New LNG contract volumes
(by seller type)
MT
Share of new LNG contract volumes
(by price indexation)
Share of total volume
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0
4
8
12
16
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Average length Average volume (RHS)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Portfolio Project
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Oil-linked EU Gas Hub HH Hybrid JKM JLC

28. Royal Dutch Shell
End of the current supply wave in 2020
February 2020 28
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Asia Europe Americas Middle East & Africa
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, Poten & Partners 2019 data
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Australia USA Russia Rest of world
LNG supply growth range by country
MTPA
LNG demand growth range by region
MTPA

29. Royal Dutch Shell
Global LNG market equilibrium expected to be restored
February 2020 29
LNG import growth by region
MT
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit 2019 data
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Asia Europe Americas Middle East

30. Royal Dutch Shell February 2020 30
03
Record supply investment due to confidence
in long-term LNG demand growth
LNG London bunkers a containership in Rotterdam

31. Royal Dutch Shell
Expected supply shortage in mid-2020s resulted in
record FIDs
February 2020 31
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit 2019 data
Investment in liquefaction capacity by contract type
MT
LNG equity offtake by buyer type
MT
0
20
40
60
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Project SPA Equity offtake
0
20
40
60
80
2010-2017 2018 2019
IOC NOC Other

32. Royal Dutch Shell
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Record FIDs delay expected supply-demand gap
LNG demand estimated to double by 2040
February 2020 32
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, FGE and Poten & Partners Q4 2019 data
Emerging LNG supply-demand gap
MTPA
Demand drivers for LNG
MTPA
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Demand as LNG is the
sole gas supply source
LNG demand supplements
pipeline gas and/or
domestic production
LNG demand due to
declining domestic gas
production
LNG demand
from bunker fuel
LNG supply in
operation
LNG supply under
construction
Demand forecast
central range
Potential
Qatar
expansion

33. Royal Dutch Shell
LNG bunkering demand accelerating
February 2020 33
Source: Shell interpretation of DNV GL, Woodmac, IHS Markit & IEA 2018 and 2019 data
* Based on announcements with deliveries going out to 2027. Does not include 150 LNG-ready ships
385 LNG fuelled ships currently in
operation/on order*
Confirmed LNG demand
# of ships MTPA
LNG bunker demand projection
MTPA
0
10
20
30
40
50
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Wood Mackenzie IHSMarkit
IEA (WEO 2019)
On order
0 10 20 30 40
Car/Passenger ferries
Container ships
Oil/Chemical tankers
Offshore supply ships
Cruise ships
Crude oil tankers
Other vessels
RoPax
Tugs
General cargo ships
Bulk carriers
Ro-Ro cargo ships
Car carriers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
In operation On order Consumption
In operation

34. Royal Dutch Shell
China gas demand expected to double
April 2019 34
200
300
400
500
600
700
2019 Domestic
production
Pipeline
imports
LNG
imports
2025 Domestic
production
Pipeline
imports
LNG
imports
2040
52%
31%
200
300
400
500
600
700
2019 Power Industry Res &
comm
Transport 2040
26%
19%
48%
7%
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie 2019 H1 data
China gas demand by sector
BCM
China supply by source
BCM
17%
38%
33%
29%
Power of Siberia

35. Royal Dutch Shell
Growing gas demand expected in South and South-east Asia
More LNG infrastructure investment needed
February 2020 35
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit 2019 data
South Asia gas supply
growth by source
BCM
South-east Asia gas supply
growth by source
BCM
LNG demand and regasification capacity
MT
0
50
100
150
200
250
2019 Domestic
production
LNG
imports
2040
India Bangladesh
Pakistan Sri Lanka
0
50
100
150
200
250
2019 Domestic
production
LNG
imports
2040
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand
Vietnam Others
LNG demand
Regas existing
Regas under construction
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
India
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Bangladesh
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Indonesia
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Thailand
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Malaysia
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Rest of SE Asia
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Pakistan
0
50
2019 2040 Regas
Vietnam

36. Royal Dutch Shell February 2020 36
◼ European LNG imports increased by 74%
◼ Higher nuclear availability and mild winters
reduced imports into Japan and South Korea
◼ End of the current supply wave in 2020
◼ Global LNG market equilibrium expected
to be restored
◼ Expected supply shortage in mid-2020s
resulted in record FIDs
◼ Record FIDs delay expected supply demand
gap
◼ LNG demand estimated to double by 2040
◼ 80% of energy demand growth expected to
be met by renewables and gas
◼ Coal-to-gas switching helping level global
CO2 emissions
◼ Record coal phase-out and generation
reduction in 2019
Record supply investment
due to confidence in long-term
LNG demand growth
Gas continues to provide more
and cleaner energy solutions
2019 was a year of record
LNG supply growth
Summary
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