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FORECASTING TRAFFIC SMS GSM IN TELE-
COMMUNICATION COMPANY FOR EFFICIENT
AND EFFECTIVE PLANNING
Name : Oktaviano Rendy Prasetyo
NRP : 1308 100 032
Department : Statistics FMIPA-ITS
Supervisor : Drs. Agus Suharsono, M.Si
Co. Supervisor : Dr. Suhartono, S.Si, M.Sc
ABSTRACT
Planning in increasingly complex telecommunications net-
work requires a good standardization of planning. This planning
need a forecasting traffic for better result. Therefore, this ebjec-
tive of this research is to develop an appropriate model for fore-
casting SMS traffic Jabotabek area using univariate forecasting
method namely ARIMA and ANN. The data used is the GSM
SMS traffic for Jabotabek area in the period March to June 2011.
The results showed that model of single hidden layer ANN pro-
duces the smallest RMSE, MAPE, and SMAPE for the next 7
days forecasting.
Key Words : ANN, ARIMA, Traffic SMS GSM.
x
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1308100032-abstrac_en

  • 1. ix FORECASTING TRAFFIC SMS GSM IN TELE- COMMUNICATION COMPANY FOR EFFICIENT AND EFFECTIVE PLANNING Name : Oktaviano Rendy Prasetyo NRP : 1308 100 032 Department : Statistics FMIPA-ITS Supervisor : Drs. Agus Suharsono, M.Si Co. Supervisor : Dr. Suhartono, S.Si, M.Sc ABSTRACT Planning in increasingly complex telecommunications net- work requires a good standardization of planning. This planning need a forecasting traffic for better result. Therefore, this ebjec- tive of this research is to develop an appropriate model for fore- casting SMS traffic Jabotabek area using univariate forecasting method namely ARIMA and ANN. The data used is the GSM SMS traffic for Jabotabek area in the period March to June 2011. The results showed that model of single hidden layer ANN pro- duces the smallest RMSE, MAPE, and SMAPE for the next 7 days forecasting. Key Words : ANN, ARIMA, Traffic SMS GSM.
  • 2. x “Halaman ini sengaja dikosongkan”