The document discusses short-term stock market trends and predictions over the next 6 months. It predicts that bond prices will continue to decline as investors shift money out of bonds and into equities and commodities like stocks. This will likely cause stock market indexes like the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada to appreciate 7-13% in the coming months. Specific bank stocks like RBC and resource stocks like Agnico Eagle and Suncor Energy are expected to rise to new post-2008 highs. The document also discusses increased interest in graphite mining companies due to growing demand for graphite in electronics and calls out a few Canadian graphite firms.
The business cycle, the global financial crisis and the future of oil markets are currently the three most popular topics of discussion. Since the start of the recession, the international media has been quick to bring many new theories and revelations, brilliant in their simplicity, to light. Hope is the mother of invention, and amidst the crisis they cannot be disproved. However, in two or three years time, 99% of this verbal chaff will have been blown away and only serious analytical work will remain.
Authored by: Leonid Grigoriev
Published in 2010
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The EIU has downgraded its forecast for the US in 2010 to 2.3% (from 2.8%) previously. Read about the latest economic forecast for the world, updated from August.
Read about the latest global economic forecast in this November presentation from the EIU's Global Forecasting Service. To receive regular global economic updates, or to dig deeper into the data, register for free access at www.eiu.com/gfs.
MCX LEAD APR on WEDNESDAY as seen in the Daily chart opened at 137.50 levels and made day low of 134.80 Levels. During this period LEAD APR High is 137.50 levels and finally
closed at 134.95 levels. Now, there are chances of down movement technically & fundamentally.
The business cycle, the global financial crisis and the future of oil markets are currently the three most popular topics of discussion. Since the start of the recession, the international media has been quick to bring many new theories and revelations, brilliant in their simplicity, to light. Hope is the mother of invention, and amidst the crisis they cannot be disproved. However, in two or three years time, 99% of this verbal chaff will have been blown away and only serious analytical work will remain.
Authored by: Leonid Grigoriev
Published in 2010
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The EIU has downgraded its forecast for the US in 2010 to 2.3% (from 2.8%) previously. Read about the latest economic forecast for the world, updated from August.
Read about the latest global economic forecast in this November presentation from the EIU's Global Forecasting Service. To receive regular global economic updates, or to dig deeper into the data, register for free access at www.eiu.com/gfs.
MCX LEAD APR on WEDNESDAY as seen in the Daily chart opened at 137.50 levels and made day low of 134.80 Levels. During this period LEAD APR High is 137.50 levels and finally
closed at 134.95 levels. Now, there are chances of down movement technically & fundamentally.
Read the latest Economist Intelligence Unit economic forecast for August. Includes regional outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets. Also forecasts for commodities and exchange rates. Visit www.eiu.com/gfs to view more.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the budgetary policy we consider the advantages and drawbacks of a “New Budget Rule”, which is based on the long-term average price of oil. In the monetary sphere, we vote for a policy of transition to inflation targeting and prioritizing low inflation against the other goals of the monetary authorities.
Authored by: Sergey Drobyshevsky, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
Published in 2013
This paper discusses the processes of nominal and real convergence and their dependence on exchange rate regimes adopted in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in thecontext of their future EMU accession. We focus our argument on the possibility of trade-off between the pace of disinflation and the maintenance of competitiveness and growth. Fixednominal exchange rate shifts the burden of adjustment on to the tradable sector but whether this pressure results in faster restructuring and faster productivity growth or becomes a straightjacket for the economy is an open question. The paper implements a simple empirical assessment of convergence of inflation to EU levels and economic growth of 7 CEE economies which had adopted different exchange rate regimes in period 1993-2002. Results indicate that fixed exchange rates seem to have been a better tool of fighting inflation as compared to floating exchange rates or intermediate regimes. The presence of a fixed exchange rate has also been characterised byhigher real GDP growth rates implying an absence of trade-off between nominal and real convergence in the investigated sample. Qualifications attached to these results are discussed.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski
Published in 2003
The paper first considers why central European countries wish to join EMU soon. The main reasons are the risk of macroeconomic instability they face outside the euro zone if they wish to grow quickly. At the same time, Central Europe is highly integrated as regards trade with EMU, so it is little exposed to asymmetric shocks that would require a realignment of exchange rates. Finally, it is argued that there is no cost in terms of slower growth from EMU accession, so that there is no trade-off, as has been claimed, between nominal convergence to EMU and real convergence to EU average GDP levels. Second, the paper assesses whether Central European accession to EMU would be disadvantageous to current members. It concludes that accession cannot increase inflationary pressure on existing EMU members, as has been claimed, but that slow growing members of EMU might suffer increased unemployment, unless they increase the flexibility of their labour markets. Incumbent members may also be unwilling to share power with Central Europeans in EMU institutions.
Authored by: Jacek Rostowski
Published in 2003
Energy & Commodities - 2010 - August/SeptemberSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Last week the pound strengthened by an average of 0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies. The main focus for sterling was Brexit, and whether the government could come up with a plan that would avoid alienating half the ruling Conservative party.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Current debate on the energy security in the EU often stresses the EU dependency on gas imports from Russia. However, Russia is no less dependent on the EU – more than half of its gas exports goes to Europe. The purpose of this paper is to characterize this mutual dependency through an index-based approach, and to discuss how the development of gas markets may affect such dependency. We suggest a unified framework to assess the security of gas supply for the EU and the security of gas demand for Russia, and construct dependency indexes for both parties. Our approach accounts not only for the traditional import/export dependency measures but also for the balance of power between Russia and the EU. The proposed methodology is then used to address the evolution of the EU-Russia gas relationship in the view of gas market's developments. New gas pipelines projects (e.g., South Stream, Nabucco) and increasing use of liquefied natural gas are all likely to impact both the demand side and the supply side of the EU-Russia gas trade, and affect mutual gas dependency between the EU and Russia.
Energy & Commodities, 2010, regarding AprilSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Read the latest Economist Intelligence Unit economic forecast for August. Includes regional outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets. Also forecasts for commodities and exchange rates. Visit www.eiu.com/gfs to view more.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the budgetary policy we consider the advantages and drawbacks of a “New Budget Rule”, which is based on the long-term average price of oil. In the monetary sphere, we vote for a policy of transition to inflation targeting and prioritizing low inflation against the other goals of the monetary authorities.
Authored by: Sergey Drobyshevsky, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
Published in 2013
This paper discusses the processes of nominal and real convergence and their dependence on exchange rate regimes adopted in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in thecontext of their future EMU accession. We focus our argument on the possibility of trade-off between the pace of disinflation and the maintenance of competitiveness and growth. Fixednominal exchange rate shifts the burden of adjustment on to the tradable sector but whether this pressure results in faster restructuring and faster productivity growth or becomes a straightjacket for the economy is an open question. The paper implements a simple empirical assessment of convergence of inflation to EU levels and economic growth of 7 CEE economies which had adopted different exchange rate regimes in period 1993-2002. Results indicate that fixed exchange rates seem to have been a better tool of fighting inflation as compared to floating exchange rates or intermediate regimes. The presence of a fixed exchange rate has also been characterised byhigher real GDP growth rates implying an absence of trade-off between nominal and real convergence in the investigated sample. Qualifications attached to these results are discussed.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski
Published in 2003
The paper first considers why central European countries wish to join EMU soon. The main reasons are the risk of macroeconomic instability they face outside the euro zone if they wish to grow quickly. At the same time, Central Europe is highly integrated as regards trade with EMU, so it is little exposed to asymmetric shocks that would require a realignment of exchange rates. Finally, it is argued that there is no cost in terms of slower growth from EMU accession, so that there is no trade-off, as has been claimed, between nominal convergence to EMU and real convergence to EU average GDP levels. Second, the paper assesses whether Central European accession to EMU would be disadvantageous to current members. It concludes that accession cannot increase inflationary pressure on existing EMU members, as has been claimed, but that slow growing members of EMU might suffer increased unemployment, unless they increase the flexibility of their labour markets. Incumbent members may also be unwilling to share power with Central Europeans in EMU institutions.
Authored by: Jacek Rostowski
Published in 2003
Energy & Commodities - 2010 - August/SeptemberSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Last week the pound strengthened by an average of 0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies. The main focus for sterling was Brexit, and whether the government could come up with a plan that would avoid alienating half the ruling Conservative party.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Current debate on the energy security in the EU often stresses the EU dependency on gas imports from Russia. However, Russia is no less dependent on the EU – more than half of its gas exports goes to Europe. The purpose of this paper is to characterize this mutual dependency through an index-based approach, and to discuss how the development of gas markets may affect such dependency. We suggest a unified framework to assess the security of gas supply for the EU and the security of gas demand for Russia, and construct dependency indexes for both parties. Our approach accounts not only for the traditional import/export dependency measures but also for the balance of power between Russia and the EU. The proposed methodology is then used to address the evolution of the EU-Russia gas relationship in the view of gas market's developments. New gas pipelines projects (e.g., South Stream, Nabucco) and increasing use of liquefied natural gas are all likely to impact both the demand side and the supply side of the EU-Russia gas trade, and affect mutual gas dependency between the EU and Russia.
Energy & Commodities, 2010, regarding AprilSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
NEUE VOLKSSCHULE ST. PANTALEON - die Wahrheit über die EntstehungHerbert Huber
Bald ist die neue Volksschule in St. Pantaleon endlich errichtet. Jahrzehntelang habe ich als Bürgermeister von St. Pantaleon für dieses Projekt gekämpft. Parteipolitische jahrelange Blockaden durch die ÖVP verhinderten eine Verwirklichung! Jetzt mit einem ÖVP Bürgermeister ist das alles Geschichte. Auch die OGL wollte dieses Projekt verhindern - jetzt feiern sie brav mit.
Ich freue mich, dass dieses Projekt endlich verwirklicht wird!
Herbert Huber, Bürgermeister a.D. St. Pantaleon
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
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► Iron Ore outlook with China slowdown
► AUDUSD outlook with falling commodities
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Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This is where Deitric Muhammad predicted the so-called Credit Crunch/Financial Crisis 2008, the rise of telecommunications and banking in Africa, and more! Yes, he was THE FIRST person to ACCURATELY PREDICT the World Financial Crisis as early as October 2005!!!
Similar to #122 Short Term Stock Market Trends (20)
1. Short-term stock market trends
In the previous edition we analyzed this rare phenomenon of massive U.S. bond (10-30 years
maturity) price declines. The crash of what is considered considered safer investments could
have triggered devastating spillover effect on stock and precious metals and base metals oil
prices etc..This direct relationship is usually observed when economists expect sudden changes
in inflation. A significant increase in inflation would ‘force” the hand of the Fedto raise short term
interest rates. But this scenario did not materialize. This is evidence that participants in financial
markets have no fear of inflation.It’s just that they no longer consider interesting the decision to
"lend" the government money (negotiable bonds) over a period of 30 years at 2.65% (Canadian)
rates. These bonds were interesting as long as the problems in Europe had the potentialof
slowing the economies of Asia and America. However this slowingeconomies scenario is not
unfolding. Consequently we can expect a continuation of the flows of money out of bonds. The
sale of bonds is likely to push yields on 30 years treasuries beyond the historical average of
4.50%. This means a further decrease in bond prices much larger than those recorded since
early October 2011. What are the implications for the world bourses of this significant shift? One
can expect all the liquidities resulting from sale of fixed income portfolios to be redirected into
equities and commoditiesas investors rebalance their portfolios. Consequently the chart below
that displays the level of the Dow Jones Industrial index against 30 years bond prices will
continue the divergence that started in the first week of October 2011. In fact chances are this
divergence will most likely accelerate at a rate of growth - well above historical norms.
As a result it is reasonable to expect that the main Canadian index the S & P TSX Canadian will
appreciate 7-13% in the next 6 months. The only obstacle that would halt this significant
impending rise in stock prices would be an accelerationin the number of new jobs created in the
U.S..This possiblereality would revive fears of inflation and drive change of central bank policy
of easy money well ahead of expectations (2014). In this respect it is important to follow the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures of March which will be released in the first week of April.
In terms of specific stocks we can expect a resumption of the bull market dynamics at a rate that
will symmetrically mirror the decline in bond prices. Bank stock prices i.e. RBC,
2. Scotia,andresource stocks like Agnico Eagle, Suncor Energy, Potash can be expected torise to
new post 2008 highs. Of note is a specific basic materials sector raising enormous interest
namely graphite. This previously boring natural resourceis inflaming the imagination of
investors. Whygraphite and why now? Two Russian scientists. Andrei Geim and Konstantin
Novoselov received the Nobel Prize in 2010 for research work on graphene. Graphene is made
from large flakes high concentration of Carbon (>94%) and it is the thinnest and most resistant
of all known materials. In addition electrical superconductivity properties makes it increasingly
present in electronic industry products like semiconductors. All these new applications have led
to higher demand and a tripling in the price of graphite in the last 7 years. As such the U.S.and
the European Union added graphite to the list of basic materials at dangerously low level of
reserves.Some graphite companies of note are: Focus Metals, Northern Graphite, Zimtu
Capital, Flinders. What is interesting is that significant graphite deposits have been discovered
in our back yard- Quebec located in the Grenville Laurentide corridor. Until next edition, I wish
you profitable decisions.