This document provides an overview and outlook of tourism in Greater Victoria from 2014 and beyond. It discusses Tourism Victoria's role and key activities in sustainable tourism development. The short term economic outlook for 2014 is cautiously optimistic due to improvements in the US economy and consumer confidence. Future trends discussed include the rise of experiential tourism, the growth of travel from Asia, and the importance of data-driven marketing. Tourism is identified as Greater Victoria's number one service sector economy, contributing $1.9 billion annually and over 20,000 jobs. Investment in tourism infrastructure and marketing is vital to remain competitive with other destinations.

1. 2014 & Beyond
Tourism Outlook
Paul Nursey
February 27, 2014

2. Agenda
• Tourism Victoria: What We Do
• Short Term Economic Outlook: U.S. Deep Dive
• Future Trends
• Why It Matters
• Key Takeaways

3. What We Do

4. Tourism Victoria’s Vision
“Tourism Victoria will be internationally
recognized as a leader in sustainable
tourism development ensuring
Greater Victoria remains one of the
top destinations in the world”

5. Key Activities

6. The Tourism Ecosystem

7. Customer Expectations
Investment in plant and infrastructure are
vital as today’s customer has higher
expectations than yesterday’s customer.
Standing still is not an option.

8. Marketing Target –
Ring of Opportunity

9. Why is Destination
Marketing Important?
ROI > 50:1
Source: University of Minnesota

10. Short Term Economic Outlook

11. Average Room Rate Greater Victoria
Source: Chemistry Consulting

12. Occupancy Rate Greater Victoria

13. The Two Big Metrics
“Cautiously Optimistic for 2014”
1. Short Term Consumer Confidence
2. GDP Growth

14. The Big Global Questions: October
Eurozone: Any hope for growth?

15. The Most Important Things
In The Landscape
• Role-reversal of developed vs. emerging markets?
• Worst of fiscal drag behind us
• Policy risks in developed economies
• Remarkable structural shifts in favor of US

16. Marketplace: Look Forward
Source: Canadian Tourism Commission Research & Evaluation

17. Exchange Rate: A Deeper Dive
Some Recent Challenging Years Even With Softer Canadian Dollar

18. World GDP Growth

19. US Labour Market Heals

20. US Wealth Nears Pre-Peak Levels

21. Low Inflation Allows For
Real Wage Growth

22. Households Are In Decent Shape

23. Confidence is rising…
23
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1985=100
Consumer confidence
Conference Board
Source: Conference Board, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics
Consumer attitudes
Consumer sentiment
University of Michigan

24. Future Trends

25. Big Trends
• Experiential tourism: Higher yield & deeper
connection with community and place
• Rise of Asia: China independent travel
• Youth and Boomer travel simultaneously
• Global growth in aviation capacity

26. New Customer Purchase Model

27. Agile Data Driven Marketing

28. Why it Matters

29. International Gateway

30. Importance
• $1.9 Billion contribution to the regional economy
(Grant Thornton 2011)
• Over 20,000 direct jobs in Greater Victoria
• Canada’s number 1 service sector economy
• Every $118,000 in tourism revenue creates 1 job
(Stats Canada 2012)

31. Role of Investment
• Tourism revenue can never be taken for granted
• Competition is fierce
• 2013 One Strong Year
• Still recovering from 2007/2008

32. Tourism Drives Trade
• New research demonstrates causal
relationship
• Pioneered in South Korea in 2011
• Study replicated in Canada in 2013
• Just 1% growth in arrivals would drive
$817M incremental exports

33. Key Takeaways

34. Short Term
• Underlying fundamentals are in place
• Strengthening US economy
• Moderating Canadian Economy
• Asia continues to grow
• Signs of life in Europe
• We need to compete – the ecosystem needs to be
healthy

35. Medium to Long Term
• Globally tourism will continue to grow
• Experiential tourisms drives meaning and
community engagement
• Greater Victoria is well positioned
• Need to work on access quickly

36. Thank-you