CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies, Milano Ms. Alessandra Tracogna Furniture outlook: Global trends and forecast for the furniture sector

1. CSIL Furniture Outlook: Alessandra Tracogna
Director
Global trends d forecasts f th
Gl b l t d and f t for the COUNTRY ANALYSIS
AND FORECASTS UNIT
furniture sector
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2. World Furniture Production, 2001-2010. Current US$ billion
An increasing role of emerging producers
400
300 Middle/Low
income
countries
200
High income
100 countries
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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3. World Furniture Production, 2000-2010. Current US$ million
A changing geography on a global scale
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
,
Middle East and Africa
250,000
South America
North America
200,000
200 000
Europe (including Russia)
Asia and Pacific
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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4. Furniture Production
F it P d ti , 2000-2010. Current US$ million
China, India, Poland and Brazil among the fast growing manufacturing countries
140,000
140 000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
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5. Furniture P d ti i
F it Production in EU, 2010. Current US$ million
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6. Furniture P d ti i
F it Production in EU, 2000-2010. % breakdown by area
EU Integration and the increasing role of Central Eastern European countries
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50% Central Eastern Europe
Western Europe
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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7. World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2011. Current US$ billion
120 118 113
110 107
100 94 96
85
78
80
66
60 56
52 51
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
* Preliminary
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8. Furniture Imports, 2001 2011
F it I t 2001-2011
The major furniture importing countries. US$ billion
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011*
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
United States Germany France United Kingdom
* Preliminary Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSIL
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9. Furniture Exports, 2001-2011
The major furniture exporting countries. US$ billion
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
China Italy Germany Poland
* Preliminary Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSIL
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10. Furniture production, the leading manufacturing countries
Very large amount of production, Very large amount of production,
low exports/ production ratio high exports/ production ratio
United States China Italy Germany
Large amount of production, Large amount of production,
low exports/ production ratio high exports/ production ratio
India
I di Japan
J France B il
F Brazil Canada Poland
Very large amount of production: >20000 US$ million; high export/production ratio:>25%
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11. World Furniture Consumption.
W ld F it C ti Breakdown by geographical area (%)
Consumers are changing
2000 2010
South
South Asia and Central America Asia and
Central America Pacific
e ca ac c Eastern Russia 3% Pacific
Eastern Russia 3% 22% Europe 2% 40%
Europe 1% 4%
3%
North
America
Western 21%
Europe
North
32% Middle Western
America East and Europe
37% Africa 27%
Middle East 3%
and Africa
2%
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12. Per
P capita f it consumption.
it furniture ti 2000=100
Per capita furniture consumption in emerging countries is low, but increasing fast
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Middle and low income High income
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13. Statistics are the evidence of a structural change affecting the
furniture sector
The structural change statred years ago and still under way is due to many factors.
Among them:
•Changing in comparative advantages for furniture production which make less profitable
producing iin advanced economies
d i d d i
•Sustained g o t in t e de a d o furniture in e e g g markets a d subseque t
Susta ed growth the demand of u tu e emerging a ets and subsequent
development of the local industry
•Investments in new plants especially designed and built for e ports (eg China Vietnam
In estments ne especiall b ilt exports (eg. China, Vietnam,
Poland)
•Operations of large multinationals sourcing on a global scale (eg. IKEA)
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14. Evolution of World GDP, 2010-2013
2010 2011 2012 2013
World 5.2
52 3.8
38 3.3
33 3.9
39
Advanced economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9
USA 3.0
30 1.8
18 1.8
18 2.2
22
Euro Area 1.9 1.6 -0.5 0.8
Emerging and D
E i d Developing E
l i Economies
i 7.3
73 6.2
62 5.4
54 5.9
59
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2012
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15. World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2012. Current US$ billion
120 118 113 116
110 107
100 94 96
85
78
80
66
60 56
52 51
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012**
* Preliminary **Forecast
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16. Furniture
F it consumption b geographical region 2012
ti by hi l i
yearly changes in real terms. Forecast as of November 2011
Europe
North America
Middle East and Africa
South America
Asia and Pacific
World
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
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17. Furniture Consumption forecasts 2012
forecasts,
Real consumption growth>3%
RUSSIA +4%
ARGENTINA +4%
BRAZIL +4%
CHILE +5%
COLOMBIA +5% CHINA +8%
PHILIPPINES +4%
ALGERIA +4% INDIA +7%
SAUDI ARABIA +4% INDONESIA +4%
BAHRAIN +4% KAZAKHSTAN +4%
KUWAIT +5% MALAYSIA +5%
QATAR +7% THAILAND +4%
SOUTH AFRICA +4% VIETNAM +5%
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