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‫‪Reza71@yahoo.com‬‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ ﻭ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺭﺿﺎ ﻣﻌﺗﻘﺩی‬ ‫ﺩی ﻣﺎﻩ 0931‬
‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫........‬ ‫2‬ ‫ی ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻝﻝ ﺑﻥﺍﺩی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺉ‬ ‫ی ی‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫................‬ ‫2‬ ‫ی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫....‬ ‫2‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫............‬ ‫3‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫................‬ ‫3‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻕﻡ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫............‬ ‫3‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻕﻡ‬ ‫......................‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫3‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫.................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫5‬ ‫ی ی‬ ‫ﻫﺯ ﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻣﻭﻡ ی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮏﻻﺕ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫.....‬ ‫5‬ ‫ﻫﺯ ﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫......................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎی ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫.....................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﺳﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻕﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................‬ ‫....‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﻕﻣﺕ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻕﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ)‪(Residual Income Valuation‬‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ی ﻥ ی‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫..........................‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫8‬ ‫ﺿﻣﺎﺋﻡ‬ ‫1‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩی ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﻻﺑﺮﺍﺗﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﺭﺍﺯک ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻫﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻳﻧﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻣﯽ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻳﺕ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻧﺩ. ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﻣﺳﮑﻥ ﻫﺎی ﺿﺩ ﺍﻟﺗﻬﺎﺑﯽ، ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﻗﻠﺑﯽ ﻋﺭﻭﻗﯽ، ﺁﻧﺗﯽ ﺑﻳﻭﺗﻳﮑﻬﺎ، ﺁﻧﺗﯽ ﻫﻳﺳﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺻﺎﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺵﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﻭﻟﻳﺩﺍﺕ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻳﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻁﺭﻳﻕ ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ ﮐﻧﻧﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺗﻌﺩﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ 4 ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 12، 71، 21 ﻭ 23 ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی 68، 78، 88 ﻭ 98 ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 98‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 00014 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻭ ﺳﻭﺩ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ 8464 ﷼ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﺗﺭﮐﻳﺏ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺑﺷﺭﺡ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ:‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﮑﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻡ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫%00.15‬ ‫858,490,12‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ )ﺳﻬﺎﻣﯽ ﻋﺎﻡ(‬ ‫%64.02‬ ‫323,159,9‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫%80.21‬ ‫290,159,4‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺩﻳﺭﻳﺕ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫%88.9‬ ‫803,207,3‬ ‫ﮐﺎﺭﮐﻧﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﺗﺟﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫%85.6‬ ‫914,003,1‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺻﺑﺎﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫%00.001‬ ‫000,000,14‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 1‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ 6 ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 404763 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺩﺕ ﻣﺷﺎﺑﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻗﺑﻝ 35% ﺭﺷﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺗﻪ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﻳﺷﻭﺩ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻳﺎﺑﺩ ﻭﻳﺎ ﺣﺗﯽ ﺗﺷﺩﻳﺩ ﺷﻭﺩ ﭼﺭﺍﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی‬ ‫ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﺻﻠﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻣﺻﺭﻑ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻣﻭﻻً ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺳﺗﺎﻥ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ )ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 1(.‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻣﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺩﻻﺋﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺷﺭﺡ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ.‬ ‫1. ﺭﺷﺩ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻭﻳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺩﺍﻣﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻣﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺩﺍﻗﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺎی 6 ﻣﺎﻩ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺧﺕ.‬ ‫2. ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻗﺭﺹ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﮐﭘﺳﻭﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺩﻭﺩی ﺩﺭ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﺎُﺛﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺗﻪ ﺍﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺣﺟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺣﺟﻡ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻋﻣﺩﺗﺎ ً ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﭘﺧﺵ ﺍﻧﺟﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺎﺩﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺯﺭﮔﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﮐﻧﻧﺩﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻧﮑﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻭﺍﻧﺎﺋﯽ ﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﻻﺋﯽ ﺑﺭﺧﻭﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺑﻘﻳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺣﻔﻅ ﮐﻧﺩ.‬ ‫2‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥ ﺩﻻﺋﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻭﺍﻥ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﮔﺭﻓﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻘﻳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﮔﺭ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ 6 ﻣﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻝ ﻧﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺣﺩﺍﻗﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﺑﺎ 714337 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻧﺩﻩ ﻳﮏ ﺭﺷﺩ‬ ‫34 ﺩﺭﺻﺩی ﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 98 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫978,215‬ ‫349,493‬ ‫060,643‬ ‫884,932‬ ‫332,881‬ ‫720,541‬ ‫74%‬ ‫84%‬ ‫24%‬ ‫983,1‬ ‫883,1‬ ‫783,1‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 1‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ 3 ﺟﺯء ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻋﺑﺎﺭﺗﻧﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ، ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﻭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ )ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 2(.‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ: ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﻋﻣﺩﻩ ﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ 35، 25 ﻭ 74 ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﮐﻝ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ، ﮐﺎﻫﺷﯽ ﺟﺯﺋﯽ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﺍﺳﻁ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺭﺯی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ )ﺑﻳﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ( ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻅﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ ﺩﺭ 3 ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﺧﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺷﺩﻳﺩ ﺷﻭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ، ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫84% ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻧﺩﮐﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ: ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ. ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁی ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ. ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻳﺯ 9% ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﮐﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺳﺮﺑﺎﺭ: ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺎﻧﻧﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﻗﺑﻝ، ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺗﻭﺭﻡ 02% ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫3‬
‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻳﻪ ﻣﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫82/21/5831‬ ‫03/21/7831 92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫)934,281(‬ ‫)472,002(‬ ‫)475,042(‬ ‫)062,353(‬ ‫)832,954(‬ ‫)840,475(‬ ‫)758,886(‬ ‫)926,628(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)934,281(‬ ‫)472,002(‬ ‫)475,042(‬ ‫)062,353(‬ ‫)832,954(‬ ‫)840,475(‬ ‫)758,886(‬ ‫)926,628(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫)484,51(‬ ‫)050,02(‬ ‫)047,22(‬ ‫)624,92(‬ ‫)171,63(‬ ‫)584,34(‬ ‫)688,05(‬ ‫)156,95(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)491,6(‬ ‫)020,8(‬ ‫)446,31(‬ ‫)115,91(‬ ‫)463,52(‬ ‫)507,13(‬ ‫)640,83(‬ ‫)656,54(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫)092,9(‬ ‫)030,21(‬ ‫)690,9(‬ ‫)519,9(‬ ‫)708,01(‬ ‫)087,11(‬ ‫)048,21(‬ ‫)599,31(‬ ‫%92‬ ‫-%42‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫)773,93(‬ ‫)889,44(‬ ‫)357,55(‬ ‫)330,27(‬ ‫)926,98(‬ ‫)726,901(‬ ‫)355,131(‬ ‫)368,751(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)986,91(‬ ‫)494,22(‬ ‫)103,22(‬ ‫)198,13(‬ ‫)854,14(‬ ‫)228,15(‬ ‫)781,26(‬ ‫)426,47(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫)986,91(‬ ‫)494,22(‬ ‫)254,33(‬ ‫)241,04(‬ ‫)171,84(‬ ‫)508,75(‬ ‫)663,96(‬ ‫)932,38(‬ ‫%41‬ ‫%94‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫)003,732(‬ ‫)213,562(‬ ‫)760,913(‬ ‫)917,454(‬ ‫)830,585(‬ ‫)061,727(‬ ‫)692,178(‬ ‫)341,440,1(‬ ‫2 ﺟﺩﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﭼﻣﻭﻋﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻣﺎﻧﻧﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ 98 ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 26% ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ )2%‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ( ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ. ﭼﻧﺎﻧﭼﻪ ﺫﮐﺭ ﺷﺩ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻋﻣﺩﺗﺎ ً ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫99% ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﮐﺷﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻳﻪ 75% ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺭﺯی ﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ.‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻬﺎی ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫%86‬ ‫%96‬ ‫%76‬ ‫%46 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫%26‬ ‫0931‬ ‫9831‬ ‫8831‬ ‫7831‬ ‫6831‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 2‬ ‫4‬
‫ﻩ ﺯﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻭ ﺗﺸﮑﻴﻼﺗﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ، ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﮐﺎﺭﮐﻧﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ، ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻳﺎﺑﯽ، ﺍﻧﺗﻘﺎﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻫﺎی ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺗﯽ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﺟﺯﺋﯽ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09، ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎ ً 01% ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﻧﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ. ﺍﮔﺭﭼﻪ ﺑﺧﺷﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻣﻠﻪ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻣﻭﻻً ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ ﺧﻁﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻧﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺍﮔﺭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺷﻭﺩ، ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻳﻥ 9% ﺗﺎ 31% ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ )ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 3(. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺗﻭﺭﻡ 02% ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ )ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﮐﺎﺭﻣﻧﺩﺍﻥ ﺑﺧﺵ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ( ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﭘﻳﺩﺍ ﮐﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﮐﻪ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 99817 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻳﺎ 01% ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺳﻳﺎﺭ ﺷﺑﻳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫%31‬ ‫%11‬ ‫%01 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫%01‬ ‫%9‬ ‫0931‬ ‫9831‬ ‫8831‬ ‫7831‬ ‫6831‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 3‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی‬ ‫ﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺑﻬﺭﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻫﻣﭼﻧﻳﻥ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺭﺩﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺳﺗﮕﯽ ﺩﺍﺭ ﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻭﺭﺕ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ ﺩﻳﺩﻩ ﻧﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻧﻬﺎ ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﻩ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻋﺎﻣﻝ ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺩ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺍﮔﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﮐﻧﻳﻡ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺷﯽ ﻧﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻳﮏ ﻣﺣﺩﻭﺩﻩ ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻭﺳﺎﻥ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﺛﺑﺎﺕ ﻧﺳﺑﯽ ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﮐﻭﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺩﺕ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺑﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺭ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻭﻟﯽ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﺝﻩ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﻪ ﻧﻅﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﮐﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﮐﺎﻫﺷﯽ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺗﻭﻗﻑ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻭﺍﻧﺩ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻭ ﻧﻳﺎﺯ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺭﺩﺵ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 79934 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﭘﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻫﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻣﻳﻥ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫5‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩﻫﺎی ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 78، 88 ﻭ 98 ﻧﺳﺑﺗﺎ ً ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺑﻭﺩﺍﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺧﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ، ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺩ ﻫﺎ ﮐﻣﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﻗﺑﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻً ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ 41 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﻣﻠﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 62147 ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺗﻭ ﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺍﺳﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺳﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻗﻼﻣﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ 005201 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫886712 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ 41% ﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ 4212 ﷼ ﺗﻌﻠﻕ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻳﺭﺩ. ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺎ ‪ P/E‬ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 69.5 ﻣﺑﻠﻎ 84021 ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻭﻟﯽ ﭼﻧﺎﻧﭼﻪ ‪ P/E‬ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺻﻧﻌﺕ ﺭﺍ )ﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﻪ ‪ P/E‬ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ 2 ﺍﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ( ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 3.6 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﺑﮕﻳﺭﻳﻡ ،ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺎی ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 18331 ﷼ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ )‪(Residual Income Valuation‬‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﻣﺭﺍﺣﻝ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ:‬ ‫1. ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ )ﺿﻣﻳﻣﻪ 1(‬ ‫2. ﺳﭘﺱ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫3. ﺩﺭ ﻣﺭﺣﻠﻪ ﺁﺧﺭ، ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻡ ﺑﺭ ﺗﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺩ.‬ ‫ﺑﺭ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ P/E‬ﮐﻪ ﻳﮏ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺳﻪ ﺍی ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺻﺭﻓﺎ ً ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻧﺩﻩ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﯽ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻉ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﻡ ﻗﺎﺋﻝ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺫﺍﺗﯽ ﺳﻬﻡ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻣﻳﺎﻥ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺳﻭﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺗﻅﺎﺭ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﻣﭼﻧﻳﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩی ﮐﻪ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻣﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻗﺎﺑﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﮔﻭﺭﺩﻭﻥ ﺩﻗﻳﻕ ﺗﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ:‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﺿﺭﻳﺏ ﺑﺗﺎی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 27.0 ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻧﺎﻟﻳﺯ ﺭﮔﺭﺳﻳﻭﻥ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ 3 ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫1.‬ ‫ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﺁﻣﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﻧﺭﺥ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺭﻳﺳﮏ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 61% ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫2.‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺳﮏ ﭘﺭﻣﻳﻭﻡ 01% ﻓﺭﺽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫3.‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻁﯽ 5 ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 34%، 03%، 52%،02% ﻭ 02% ﻓﺭﺽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺭﺷﺩ 34% ﺑﺭﺍی‬ ‫4.‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ 6 ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺗﺧﻣﻳﻥ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺗﺩﺭﻳﺞ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﻣﯽ ﻳﺎﺑﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 49 ﺑﻪ‬ ‫02% ﺑﺭﺳﺩ.‬ ‫6‬
‫ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻻ، ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ 32% ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻧﻬﺎﺋﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ )‪ (Terminal Value‬ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ 5 )ﺁﺧﺭﻳﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ( ﻧﻳﺯ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ 418622 ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﺎﺕ ﺫﮐﺭ ﺷﺩﻩ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 9269 ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﮐﻣﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ P/E‬ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻣﻬﻣﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﻥ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪P/E‬‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻧﺎی ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ، ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﺷﺩ 04 ﺩﺭﺻﺩی ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻭ ﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺩﺍﻭﻡ ﭼﻧﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﺏ‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩی ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺁﺗﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺁﺗﯽ ﮐﻧﺩ ﺗﺭ ﺗﺻﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/9831 92/21/8831 03/21/7831 92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/4931 92/21/3931‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻣﯽ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫691,641‬ ‫574,481‬ ‫959,981‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫375,993‬ ‫157,544‬ ‫271,316‬ ‫816,686‬ ‫810,677‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫867,821‬ ‫809,711‬ ‫665,091‬ ‫886,712‬ ‫889,772‬ ‫259,743‬ ‫333,414‬ ‫790,494‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﷼‬ ‫829,33‬ ‫118,24‬ ‫480,44‬ ‫211,96‬ ‫927,29‬ ‫644,301‬ ‫992,241‬ ‫443,951‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫048,49‬ ‫790,57‬ ‫284,641‬ ‫775,841‬ ‫952,581‬ ‫605,442‬ ‫330,272‬ ‫257,433‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺋﯽ‬ ‫418,622‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺋﯽ‬ ‫098,97‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫723,906‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 98‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫220,789‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﻡ‬ ‫926,9‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 3‬ ‫7‬
‫ﺿﻤﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫1. ﺻﻭﺭﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺳﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺭﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ 5 ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831 03/21/7831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫453,692‬ ‫060,643‬ ‫129,783‬ ‫978,215‬ ‫714,337‬ ‫244,359‬ ‫308,191,1‬ ‫361,034,1‬ ‫691,617,1‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫)219,791(‬ ‫)003,732(‬ ‫)084,362(‬ ‫)760,913(‬ ‫)917,454(‬ ‫)830,585(‬ ‫)061,727(‬ ‫)692,178(‬ ‫)341,440,1(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺹ‬ ‫244,89‬ ‫067,801‬ ‫144,421‬ ‫218,391‬ ‫896,872‬ ‫404,863‬ ‫346,464‬ ‫768,855‬ ‫350,276‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ‬ ‫)895,72(‬ ‫)129,33(‬ ‫)236,94(‬ ‫)834,55(‬ ‫)998,17(‬ ‫)026,98(‬ ‫)517,901(‬ ‫)856,131(‬ ‫)099,751(‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩﻫﺎ )ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ(ی ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺗﯽ‬ ‫)056(‬ ‫)549(‬ ‫149,1‬ ‫)437(‬ ‫)259(‬ ‫)781,1(‬ ‫)354,1(‬ ‫)347,1(‬ ‫)290,2(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺗﯽ‬ ‫491,07‬ ‫498,37‬ ‫057,67‬ ‫046,731‬ ‫848,502‬ ‫895,772‬ ‫574,353‬ ‫664,524‬ ‫279,115‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ‬ ‫)705,92(‬ ‫)891,73(‬ ‫)332,53(‬ ‫)974,82(‬ ‫)799,34(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫239,16‬ ‫842,001‬ ‫650,58‬ ‫578,101‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ )ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ( ﻣﺗﻔﺭﻗﻪ‬ ‫302‬ ‫0‬ ‫701‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﺭﻗﺑﻪ ﺍﺛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺻﻭﻝ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷ‬ ‫228,201‬ ‫449,631‬ ‫086,621‬ ‫741,112‬ ‫880,632‬ ‫484,103‬ ‫163,773‬ ‫253,944‬ ‫858,535‬ ‫ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﺭﻗﺑﻪ ﺍﺛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺻﻭﻝ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎی ﺣﺳﺎﺑﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﻣ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫228,201‬ ‫449,631‬ ‫086,621‬ ‫741,112‬ ‫880,632‬ ‫484,103‬ ‫163,773‬ ‫253,944‬ ‫858,535‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫)277,8(‬ ‫)671,8(‬ ‫)277,8(‬ ‫)185,02(‬ ‫)993,81(‬ ‫)694,32(‬ ‫)904,92(‬ ‫)020,53(‬ ‫)167,14(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫050,49‬ ‫867,821‬ ‫809,711‬ ‫665,091‬ ‫886,712‬ ‫889,772‬ ‫259,743‬ ‫333,414‬ ‫790,494‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫492,2‬ ‫141,3‬ ‫678,2‬ ‫846,4‬ ‫421,2‬ ‫217,2‬ ‫047,1‬ ‫270,2‬ ‫074,2‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺩﻳﻠﺕ ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺗﯽ‬ ‫)603,41(‬ ‫)093,4(‬ ‫)462,21(‬ ‫)917,6(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﻣﺻﻭﺏ ﻣﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫)006,56(‬ ‫)001,68(‬ ‫)055,401(‬ ‫)000,28(‬ ‫)151,471(‬ ‫)193,222(‬ ‫)263,872(‬ ‫)664,133(‬ ‫)772,593(‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831 03/21/7831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩی ﻧﻘﺩ‬ ‫435,7‬ ‫770,2‬ ‫665,11‬ ‫653,32‬ ‫440,83‬ ‫090,57‬ ‫785,791‬ ‫092,722‬ ‫766,952‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎی ﮐﻭﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﻭ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﻭﺍﺑﺳﺗﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫006,111‬ ‫244,54‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫351,731‬ ‫702,58‬ ‫978,901‬ ‫874,75‬ ‫310,011‬ ‫610,341‬ ‫077,871‬ ‫425,412‬ ‫924,752‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫608,99‬ ‫802,301‬ ‫622,241‬ ‫492,65‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﮐﺎﻻ‬ ‫889,531‬ ‫337,081‬ ‫541,421‬ ‫412,822‬ ‫303,813‬ ‫625,904‬ ‫210,905‬ ‫709,906‬ ‫009,037‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫466,63‬ ‫765,5‬ ‫547,9‬ ‫945,21‬ ‫849,41‬ ‫151,91‬ ‫557,32‬ ‫074,82‬ ‫321,43‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫541,714‬ ‫293,884‬ ‫300,344‬ ‫171,855‬ ‫179,167‬ ‫744,729‬ ‫887,981,1‬ ‫458,063,1‬ ‫387,265,1‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎی ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫586,04‬ ‫321,66‬ ‫152,46‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﺍﺳﺗﻬﻼک‬ ‫334,43‬ ‫922,63‬ ‫062,35‬ ‫043,25‬ ‫363,48‬ ‫213,611‬ ‫329,051‬ ‫535,581‬ ‫860,722‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﻧﺎﻣﺷﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫436‬ ‫418‬ ‫937‬ ‫394‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی)ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ(‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻬﺎی ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺍی‬ ‫236‬ ‫938,1‬ ‫5412‬ ‫13011‬ ‫001,6‬ ‫848,7‬ ‫457,9‬ ‫886,11‬ ‫600,41‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫041,2‬ ‫629,1‬ ‫755‬ ‫639,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫425,87‬ ‫139,601‬ ‫259,021‬ ‫340,711‬ ‫610,441‬ ‫317,771‬ ‫032,412‬ ‫577,052‬ ‫726,492‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫966,594‬ ‫323,595‬ ‫559,365‬ ‫412,576‬ ‫789,509‬ ‫061,501,1‬ ‫810,404,1‬ ‫036,116,1‬ ‫014,758,1‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫770,15‬ ‫206,73‬ ‫807,82‬ ‫784,52‬ ‫910,05‬ ‫453,46‬ ‫889,97‬ ‫348,59‬ ‫658,411‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫532,61‬ ‫591,02‬ ‫490,45‬ ‫358,15‬ ‫207,76‬ ‫437,68‬ ‫885,701‬ ‫049,821‬ ‫645,451‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺳﺗﻪ‬ ‫646‬ ‫883,01‬ ‫912‬ ‫566,53‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻳﺭﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ‬ ‫438,9‬ ‫695,01‬ ‫315,9‬ ‫866,12‬ ‫107,02‬ ‫534,62‬ ‫880,33‬ ‫004,93‬ ‫589,64‬ ‫ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ‬ ‫934,491‬ ‫076,102‬ ‫241,701‬ ‫710,961‬ ‫608,852‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﭘﻳﺷﻧﻬﺎﺩی ﻭ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫364,56‬ ‫105,611‬ ‫707,751‬ ‫757,45‬ ‫334,07‬ ‫502,931‬ ‫650,912‬ ‫631,103‬ ‫140,593‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫496,733‬ ‫259,693‬ ‫383,753‬ ‫744,853‬ ‫093,974‬ ‫046,426‬ ‫236,747‬ ‫132,378‬ ‫933,910,1‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻳﺭﻩ ﻣﺯﺍﻳﺎی ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﺩﻣﺕ‬ ‫977,11‬ ‫698,31‬ ‫316,61‬ ‫269,81‬ ‫420,72‬ ‫967,43‬ ‫512,34‬ ‫187,15‬ ‫350,26‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫977,11‬ ‫698,31‬ ‫316,61‬ ‫269,81‬ ‫420,72‬ ‫967,43‬ ‫512,34‬ ‫187,15‬ ‫350,26‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی ﻭ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫374,943‬ ‫848,014‬ ‫699,373‬ ‫904,773‬ ‫414,605‬ ‫904,956‬ ‫748,097‬ ‫110,529‬ ‫293,180,1‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫ﺻﺭﻑ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﻩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﺎﺑﺕ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺩﻭﺧﺗﻪ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻧﯽ‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫052,01‬ ‫052,01‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺩﻭﺧﺗﻪ ﻁﺭﺡ ﻭ ﺗﻭﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫690,101‬ ‫573,931‬ ‫958,441‬ ‫507,252‬ ‫328,682‬ ‫100,333‬ ‫271,393‬ ‫816,664‬ ‫810,655‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫691,641‬ ‫574,481‬ ‫959,981‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫375,993‬ ‫157,544‬ ‫271,316‬ ‫816,686‬ ‫810,677‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫966,594‬ ‫323,595‬ ‫559,365‬ ‫412,576‬ ‫789,509‬ ‫061,501,1‬ ‫810,404,1‬ ‫036,116,1‬ ‫014,758,1‬ ‫ﮐﻧﺗﺭﻝ )ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺋﯽ ﻫﺎ - ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﯽ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ(‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫8‬

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Share Valuation for Razak Pharmaceutical

  • 1.
    ‫‪Reza71@yahoo.com‬‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ ﻭ ﻗﻳﻣﺕﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺭﺿﺎ ﻣﻌﺗﻘﺩی‬ ‫ﺩی ﻣﺎﻩ 0931‬
  • 2.
    ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫........‬ ‫2‬ ‫ی ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻝﻝ ﺑﻥﺍﺩی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺉ‬ ‫ی ی‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫................‬ ‫2‬ ‫ی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫....‬ ‫2‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫............‬ ‫3‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫................‬ ‫3‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻕﻡ‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫............‬ ‫3‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻕﻡ‬ ‫......................‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫3‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫.................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫5‬ ‫ی ی‬ ‫ﻫﺯ ﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻣﻭﻡ ی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮏﻻﺕ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫.....‬ ‫5‬ ‫ﻫﺯ ﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫......................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎی ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫.....................‬ ‫................................................................................................‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﺳﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻕﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ی ﻥ‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫................................................................‬ ‫....‬ ‫6‬ ‫ﺵ یی ﻕﻣﺕ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻕﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ)‪(Residual Income Valuation‬‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ی ﻥ ی‬ ‫پ ﺏ‬ ‫..........................‬ ‫................................................................................................................................‬ ‫8‬ ‫ﺿﻣﺎﺋﻡ‬ ‫1‬
  • 3.
    ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩی ﺷﺮﮐﺖﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﻻﺑﺮﺍﺗﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎی ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﯽ ﺭﺍﺯک ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻫﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻳﻧﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻣﯽ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻳﺕ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻧﺩ. ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﻣﺳﮑﻥ ﻫﺎی ﺿﺩ ﺍﻟﺗﻬﺎﺑﯽ، ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی ﻗﻠﺑﯽ ﻋﺭﻭﻗﯽ، ﺁﻧﺗﯽ ﺑﻳﻭﺗﻳﮑﻬﺎ، ﺁﻧﺗﯽ ﻫﻳﺳﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎی‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺻﺎﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺵﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﻭﻟﻳﺩﺍﺕ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻳﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻁﺭﻳﻕ ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ ﮐﻧﻧﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺗﻌﺩﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ 4 ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 12، 71، 21 ﻭ 23 ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی 68، 78، 88 ﻭ 98 ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 98‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 00014 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻭ ﺳﻭﺩ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ 8464 ﷼ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﺗﺭﮐﻳﺏ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺑﺷﺭﺡ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ:‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﮑﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻡ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫%00.15‬ ‫858,490,12‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ )ﺳﻬﺎﻣﯽ ﻋﺎﻡ(‬ ‫%64.02‬ ‫323,159,9‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫%80.21‬ ‫290,159,4‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺩﻳﺭﻳﺕ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫%88.9‬ ‫803,207,3‬ ‫ﮐﺎﺭﮐﻧﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﺗﺟﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫%85.6‬ ‫914,003,1‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺻﺑﺎﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫%00.001‬ ‫000,000,14‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 1‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ 6 ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 404763 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺩﺕ ﻣﺷﺎﺑﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻗﺑﻝ 35% ﺭﺷﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺗﻪ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﻳﺷﻭﺩ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻳﺎﺑﺩ ﻭﻳﺎ ﺣﺗﯽ ﺗﺷﺩﻳﺩ ﺷﻭﺩ ﭼﺭﺍﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی‬ ‫ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﺻﻠﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻣﺻﺭﻑ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻣﻭﻻً ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺳﺗﺎﻥ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ )ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 1(.‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻣﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺩﻻﺋﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺷﺭﺡ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ.‬ ‫1. ﺭﺷﺩ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻭﻳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺩﺍﻣﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻣﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﻫﺎ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺩﺍﻗﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺎی 6 ﻣﺎﻩ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺧﺕ.‬ ‫2. ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻗﺭﺹ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﮐﭘﺳﻭﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺍﻧﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺩﻭﺩی ﺩﺭ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﺎُﺛﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺗﻪ ﺍﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺣﺟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺣﺟﻡ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻋﻣﺩﺗﺎ ً ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﭘﺧﺵ ﺍﻧﺟﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺎﺩﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺯﺭﮔﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﮐﻧﻧﺩﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻧﮑﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﭘﺧﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻭﺍﻧﺎﺋﯽ ﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﻻﺋﯽ ﺑﺭﺧﻭﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺍﻳﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺑﻘﻳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺣﻔﻅ ﮐﻧﺩ.‬ ‫2‬
  • 4.
    ‫ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥﺩﻻﺋﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻭﺍﻥ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﮔﺭﻓﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻘﻳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﮔﺭ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ 6 ﻣﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻝ ﻧﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺣﺩﺍﻗﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﺑﺎ 714337 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻧﺩﻩ ﻳﮏ ﺭﺷﺩ‬ ‫34 ﺩﺭﺻﺩی ﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 98 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫978,215‬ ‫349,493‬ ‫060,643‬ ‫884,932‬ ‫332,881‬ ‫720,541‬ ‫74%‬ ‫84%‬ ‫24%‬ ‫983,1‬ ‫883,1‬ ‫783,1‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 1‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ 3 ﺟﺯء ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻋﺑﺎﺭﺗﻧﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ، ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﻭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ )ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 2(.‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ: ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﻋﻣﺩﻩ ﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ 35، 25 ﻭ 74 ﺩﺭﺻﺩ ﮐﻝ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻳﻣﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ، ﮐﺎﻫﺷﯽ ﺟﺯﺋﯽ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﺍﺳﻁ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺭﺯی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ )ﺑﻳﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻭ( ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻅﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ ﺩﺭ 3 ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﺧﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺷﺩﻳﺩ ﺷﻭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ، ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫84% ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻧﺩﮐﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ: ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ. ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁی ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ. ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻳﺯ 9% ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﮐﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺳﺮﺑﺎﺭ: ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺎﻧﻧﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﻗﺑﻝ، ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺗﻭﺭﻡ 02% ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫3‬
  • 5.
    ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻳﻪ ﻣﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫82/21/5831‬ ‫03/21/7831 92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫)934,281(‬ ‫)472,002(‬ ‫)475,042(‬ ‫)062,353(‬ ‫)832,954(‬ ‫)840,475(‬ ‫)758,886(‬ ‫)926,628(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)934,281(‬ ‫)472,002(‬ ‫)475,042(‬ ‫)062,353(‬ ‫)832,954(‬ ‫)840,475(‬ ‫)758,886(‬ ‫)926,628(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫%0‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺗﻣﺯﺩ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫)484,51(‬ ‫)050,02(‬ ‫)047,22(‬ ‫)624,92(‬ ‫)171,63(‬ ‫)584,34(‬ ‫)688,05(‬ ‫)156,95(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)491,6(‬ ‫)020,8(‬ ‫)446,31(‬ ‫)115,91(‬ ‫)463,52(‬ ‫)507,13(‬ ‫)640,83(‬ ‫)656,54(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫)092,9(‬ ‫)030,21(‬ ‫)690,9(‬ ‫)519,9(‬ ‫)708,01(‬ ‫)087,11(‬ ‫)048,21(‬ ‫)599,31(‬ ‫%92‬ ‫-%42‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫%9‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫)773,93(‬ ‫)889,44(‬ ‫)357,55(‬ ‫)330,27(‬ ‫)926,98(‬ ‫)726,901(‬ ‫)355,131(‬ ‫)368,751(‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫)986,91(‬ ‫)494,22(‬ ‫)103,22(‬ ‫)198,13(‬ ‫)854,14(‬ ‫)228,15(‬ ‫)781,26(‬ ‫)426,47(‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺕ‬ ‫)986,91(‬ ‫)494,22(‬ ‫)254,33(‬ ‫)241,04(‬ ‫)171,84(‬ ‫)508,75(‬ ‫)663,96(‬ ‫)932,38(‬ ‫%41‬ ‫%94‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%02‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫)003,732(‬ ‫)213,562(‬ ‫)760,913(‬ ‫)917,454(‬ ‫)830,585(‬ ‫)061,727(‬ ‫)692,178(‬ ‫)341,440,1(‬ ‫2 ﺟﺩﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﭼﻣﻭﻋﻪ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻣﺎﻧﻧﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ 98 ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 26% ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ )2%‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ( ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ. ﭼﻧﺎﻧﭼﻪ ﺫﮐﺭ ﺷﺩ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻋﻣﺩﺗﺎ ً ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫99% ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﮐﺷﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻳﻪ 75% ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺭﺯی ﺗﺎﻣﻳﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ.‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻬﺎی ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫%86‬ ‫%96‬ ‫%76‬ ‫%46 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫%26‬ ‫0931‬ ‫9831‬ ‫8831‬ ‫7831‬ ‫6831‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 2‬ ‫4‬
  • 6.
    ‫ﻩ ﺯﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎیﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻭ ﺗﺸﮑﻴﻼﺗﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ، ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﮐﺎﺭﮐﻧﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ، ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻳﺎﺑﯽ، ﺍﻧﺗﻘﺎﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻫﺎی ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺗﯽ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﺟﺯﺋﯽ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09، ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎ ً 01% ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﻧﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ. ﺍﮔﺭﭼﻪ ﺑﺧﺷﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻣﻠﻪ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻣﻭﻻً ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ ﺧﻁﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﻧﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺍﮔﺭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺷﻭﺩ، ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻳﻥ 9% ﺗﺎ 31% ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ )ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 3(. ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺟﺯء ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺗﻭﺭﻡ 02% ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ )ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﮐﺎﺭﻣﻧﺩﺍﻥ ﺑﺧﺵ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺗﺑﻠﻳﻐﺎﺕ( ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺟﺯء ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﭘﻳﺩﺍ ﮐﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺯء ﮐﻪ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی، ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻧﺩ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 99817 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﻳﺎ 01% ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭ ﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺳﻳﺎﺭ ﺷﺑﻳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺕ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫%31‬ ‫%11‬ ‫%01 ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫%01‬ ‫%9‬ ‫0931‬ ‫9831‬ ‫8831‬ ‫7831‬ ‫6831‬ ‫ﻧﻣﻭﺩﺍﺭ 3‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی‬ ‫ﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﻧﺭﺥ ﺑﻬﺭﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻫﻣﭼﻧﻳﻥ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺭﺩﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺳﺗﮕﯽ ﺩﺍﺭ ﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻭﺭﺕ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ ﺩﻳﺩﻩ ﻧﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻧﻬﺎ ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﻩ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻋﺎﻣﻝ ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺩ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺍﮔﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﮐﻧﻳﻡ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺷﯽ ﻧﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻳﮏ ﻣﺣﺩﻭﺩﻩ ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻭﺳﺎﻥ ﺑﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﺛﺑﺎﺕ ﻧﺳﺑﯽ ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﮐﻭﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺩﺕ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺑﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺭ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻭﻟﯽ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺧﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﺝﻩ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﻪ ﻧﻅﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﺕ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﮐﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﮐﺎﻫﺷﯽ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺗﻭﻗﻑ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻭﺍﻧﺩ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻭ ﻧﻳﺎﺯ ﺑﻳﺷﺗﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺭﺩﺵ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 79934 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﭘﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻫﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻣﻳﻥ ﻣﻳﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫5‬
  • 7.
    ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩﻫﺎی ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 78، 88 ﻭ 98 ﻧﺳﺑﺗﺎ ً ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﺑﻭﺩﺍﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺧﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ، ﻣﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺩ ﻫﺎ ﮐﻣﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﻗﺑﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻً ﺑﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ 41 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺍﻣﻠﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 62147 ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺩﺟﻪ ﺗﻭ ﻁ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺍﺳﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺳﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻗﻼﻣﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ 005201 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫886712 ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻭﻥ ﷼ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ 41% ﺳﺑﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ 4212 ﷼ ﺗﻌﻠﻕ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻳﺭﺩ. ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺎ ‪ P/E‬ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 69.5 ﻣﺑﻠﻎ 84021 ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻭﻟﯽ ﭼﻧﺎﻧﭼﻪ ‪ P/E‬ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﺻﻧﻌﺕ ﺭﺍ )ﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﻪ ‪ P/E‬ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ 2 ﺍﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ( ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 3.6 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻧﻳﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﺑﮕﻳﺭﻳﻡ ،ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺎی ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 18331 ﷼ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ )‪(Residual Income Valuation‬‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﺷﺎﻣﻝ ﻣﺭﺍﺣﻝ ﺯﻳﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ:‬ ‫1. ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ )ﺿﻣﻳﻣﻪ 1(‬ ‫2. ﺳﭘﺱ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ.‬ ‫3. ﺩﺭ ﻣﺭﺣﻠﻪ ﺁﺧﺭ، ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻡ ﺑﺭ ﺗﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺩ.‬ ‫ﺑﺭ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ P/E‬ﮐﻪ ﻳﮏ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺳﻪ ﺍی ﺍﺳﺕ ﻭ ﺻﺭﻓﺎ ً ﻧﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻧﺩﻩ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﯽ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻉ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﻡ ﻗﺎﺋﻝ ﺍﺳﺕ، ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺫﺍﺗﯽ ﺳﻬﻡ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻭﺩ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻣﻳﺎﻥ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺳﻭﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺗﻅﺎﺭ ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻥ ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﻣﭼﻧﻳﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩی ﮐﻪ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻣﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻣﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻗﺎﺑﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﮔﻭﺭﺩﻭﻥ ﺩﻗﻳﻕ ﺗﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ.‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻠﯽ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺩ:‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﺿﺭﻳﺏ ﺑﺗﺎی ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 27.0 ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻧﺎﻟﻳﺯ ﺭﮔﺭﺳﻳﻭﻥ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ 3 ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫1.‬ ‫ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﺁﻣﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﻧﺭﺥ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺭﻳﺳﮏ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎ 61% ﺩﺭ ﻧﻅﺭ ﮔﺭﻓﺗﻪ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫2.‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺳﮏ ﭘﺭﻣﻳﻭﻡ 01% ﻓﺭﺽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫3.‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻁﯽ 5 ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 34%، 03%، 52%،02% ﻭ 02% ﻓﺭﺽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ. ﺭﺷﺩ 34% ﺑﺭﺍی‬ ‫4.‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ 6 ﻣﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﺗﺧﻣﻳﻥ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺗﺩﺭﻳﺞ ﮐﺎﻫﺵ ﻣﯽ ﻳﺎﺑﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 49 ﺑﻪ‬ ‫02% ﺑﺭﺳﺩ.‬ ‫6‬
  • 8.
    ‫ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕﺑﺎﻻ، ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭ 32% ﺧﻭﺍﻫﺩ ﺑﻭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻧﻬﺎﺋﯽ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ )‪ (Terminal Value‬ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ 5 )ﺁﺧﺭﻳﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ( ﻧﻳﺯ ﻣﺑﻠﻎ 418622 ﺑﺩﺳﺕ ﻣﯽ ﺁﻳﺩ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﺎﺕ ﺫﮐﺭ ﺷﺩﻩ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﺍﺑﺭ ﺑﺎ 9269 ﷼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﮐﻪ ﮐﻣﺗﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺷﺩﻩ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ P/E‬ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ. ﻣﻬﻣﺗﺭﻳﻥ ﺩﻟﻳﻝ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺭ ﺑﻭﺩﻥ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺏ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪P/E‬‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻥ ﺍﺳﺕ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻥ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻧﺎی ﻣﺣﺎﺳﺑﻪ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ، ﺑﺭ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﺷﺩ 04 ﺩﺭﺻﺩی ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 09 ﻭ ﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺩﺍﻭﻡ ﭼﻧﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﺏ‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺩی ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺁﺗﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺩ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﮔﺫﺍﺭی ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ، ﺭﻭﻧﺩ ﺭﺷﺩ ﺳﻭﺩ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺎی ﺁﺗﯽ ﮐﻧﺩ ﺗﺭ ﺗﺻﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺷﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺕ.‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/9831 92/21/8831 03/21/7831 92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/4931 92/21/3931‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻣﯽ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫691,641‬ ‫574,481‬ ‫959,981‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫375,993‬ ‫157,544‬ ‫271,316‬ ‫816,686‬ ‫810,677‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫867,821‬ ‫809,711‬ ‫665,091‬ ‫886,712‬ ‫889,772‬ ‫259,743‬ ‫333,414‬ ‫790,494‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫%32‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﷼‬ ‫829,33‬ ‫118,24‬ ‫480,44‬ ‫211,96‬ ‫927,29‬ ‫644,301‬ ‫992,241‬ ‫443,951‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫048,49‬ ‫790,57‬ ‫284,641‬ ‫775,841‬ ‫952,581‬ ‫605,442‬ ‫330,272‬ ‫257,433‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺋﯽ‬ ‫418,622‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺋﯽ‬ ‫098,97‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺑﺎﻗﻳﻣﺎﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫723,906‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 98‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﺑﺭﺍی ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫220,789‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺕ ﺳﻬﻡ‬ ‫926,9‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻭﻝ 3‬ ‫7‬
  • 9.
    ‫ﺿﻤﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫1. ﺻﻭﺭﺕ ﻫﺎی ﺳﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺭﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺕ ﻭ ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ 5 ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831 03/21/7831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﺵ‬ ‫453,692‬ ‫060,643‬ ‫129,783‬ ‫978,215‬ ‫714,337‬ ‫244,359‬ ‫308,191,1‬ ‫361,034,1‬ ‫691,617,1‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎی ﺗﻣﺎﻡ ﺷﺩﻩ ﮐﺎﻻی ﻓﺭﻭﺵ ﺭﻓﺗﻪ‬ ‫)219,791(‬ ‫)003,732(‬ ‫)084,362(‬ ‫)760,913(‬ ‫)917,454(‬ ‫)830,585(‬ ‫)061,727(‬ ‫)692,178(‬ ‫)341,440,1(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺹ‬ ‫244,89‬ ‫067,801‬ ‫144,421‬ ‫218,391‬ ‫896,872‬ ‫404,863‬ ‫346,464‬ ‫768,855‬ ‫350,276‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻋﻣﻭﻣﯽ ﺍﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﺗﺷﮑﻳﻼﺗﯽ‬ ‫)895,72(‬ ‫)129,33(‬ ‫)236,94(‬ ‫)834,55(‬ ‫)998,17(‬ ‫)026,98(‬ ‫)517,901(‬ ‫)856,131(‬ ‫)099,751(‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩﻫﺎ )ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ(ی ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺗﯽ‬ ‫)056(‬ ‫)549(‬ ‫149,1‬ ‫)437(‬ ‫)259(‬ ‫)781,1(‬ ‫)354,1(‬ ‫)347,1(‬ ‫)290,2(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺗﯽ‬ ‫491,07‬ ‫498,37‬ ‫057,67‬ ‫046,731‬ ‫848,502‬ ‫895,772‬ ‫574,353‬ ‫664,524‬ ‫279,115‬ ‫ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ‬ ‫)705,92(‬ ‫)891,73(‬ ‫)332,53(‬ ‫)974,82(‬ ‫)799,34(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫)153,05(‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫239,16‬ ‫842,001‬ ‫650,58‬ ‫578,101‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫621,47‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ )ﻫﺯﻳﻧﻪ ﻫﺎی ( ﻣﺗﻔﺭﻗﻪ‬ ‫302‬ ‫0‬ ‫701‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫111‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﺭﻗﺑﻪ ﺍﺛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺻﻭﻝ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷ‬ ‫228,201‬ ‫449,631‬ ‫086,621‬ ‫741,112‬ ‫880,632‬ ‫484,103‬ ‫163,773‬ ‫253,944‬ ‫858,535‬ ‫ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﺭﻗﺑﻪ ﺍﺛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺻﻭﻝ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎی ﺣﺳﺎﺑﺩﺍﺭی ﻭ ﻣ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫228,201‬ ‫449,631‬ ‫086,621‬ ‫741,112‬ ‫880,632‬ ‫484,103‬ ‫163,773‬ ‫253,944‬ ‫858,535‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫)277,8(‬ ‫)671,8(‬ ‫)277,8(‬ ‫)185,02(‬ ‫)993,81(‬ ‫)694,32(‬ ‫)904,92(‬ ‫)020,53(‬ ‫)167,14(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﺧﺎﻟﺹ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫050,49‬ ‫867,821‬ ‫809,711‬ ‫665,091‬ ‫886,712‬ ‫889,772‬ ‫259,743‬ ‫333,414‬ ‫790,494‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﻫﺭ ﺳﻬﻡ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫492,2‬ ‫141,3‬ ‫678,2‬ ‫846,4‬ ‫421,2‬ ‫217,2‬ ‫047,1‬ ‫270,2‬ ‫074,2‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺩﻳﻠﺕ ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺗﯽ‬ ‫)603,41(‬ ‫)093,4(‬ ‫)462,21(‬ ‫)917,6(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫)024,9(‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﻣﺻﻭﺏ ﻣﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫)006,56(‬ ‫)001,68(‬ ‫)055,401(‬ ‫)000,28(‬ ‫)151,471(‬ ‫)193,222(‬ ‫)263,872(‬ ‫)664,133(‬ ‫)772,593(‬ ‫ﻻﺑﺭﺍﺗﻭﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻭﺋﻲ ﺭﺍﺯک‬ ‫ﺍﻁﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﺫﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺑﻳﻧﯽ ﺁﻳﻧﺩﻩ‬ ‫92/21/6831‬ ‫92/21/8831 03/21/7831‬ ‫92/21/9831‬ ‫92/21/0931‬ ‫03/21/2931 92/21/1931‬ ‫92/21/3931‬ ‫92/21/4931‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩی ﻧﻘﺩ‬ ‫435,7‬ ‫770,2‬ ‫665,11‬ ‫653,32‬ ‫440,83‬ ‫090,57‬ ‫785,791‬ ‫092,722‬ ‫766,952‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎی ﮐﻭﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﻭ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﻭﺍﺑﺳﺗﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫006,111‬ ‫244,54‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫082,081‬ ‫ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫351,731‬ ‫702,58‬ ‫978,901‬ ‫874,75‬ ‫310,011‬ ‫610,341‬ ‫077,871‬ ‫425,412‬ ‫924,752‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫608,99‬ ‫802,301‬ ‫622,241‬ ‫492,65‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫483,001‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩی ﻣﻭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﮐﺎﻻ‬ ‫889,531‬ ‫337,081‬ ‫541,421‬ ‫412,822‬ ‫303,813‬ ‫625,904‬ ‫210,905‬ ‫709,906‬ ‫009,037‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫466,63‬ ‫765,5‬ ‫547,9‬ ‫945,21‬ ‫849,41‬ ‫151,91‬ ‫557,32‬ ‫074,82‬ ‫321,43‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫541,714‬ ‫293,884‬ ‫300,344‬ ‫171,855‬ ‫179,167‬ ‫744,729‬ ‫887,981,1‬ ‫458,063,1‬ ‫387,265,1‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺫﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎی ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫586,04‬ ‫321,66‬ ‫152,46‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫342,15‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﺛﺎﺑﺕ ﭘﺱ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺳﺭ ﺍﺳﺗﻬﻼک‬ ‫334,43‬ ‫922,63‬ ‫062,35‬ ‫043,25‬ ‫363,48‬ ‫213,611‬ ‫329,051‬ ‫535,581‬ ‫860,722‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﻧﺎﻣﺷﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫436‬ ‫418‬ ‫937‬ ‫394‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫076‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی)ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ(‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻬﺎی ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺍی‬ ‫236‬ ‫938,1‬ ‫5412‬ ‫13011‬ ‫001,6‬ ‫848,7‬ ‫457,9‬ ‫886,11‬ ‫600,41‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫041,2‬ ‫629,1‬ ‫755‬ ‫639,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫046,1‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎی ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫425,87‬ ‫139,601‬ ‫259,021‬ ‫340,711‬ ‫610,441‬ ‫317,771‬ ‫032,412‬ ‫577,052‬ ‫726,492‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫966,594‬ ‫323,595‬ ‫559,365‬ ‫412,576‬ ‫789,509‬ ‫061,501,1‬ ‫810,404,1‬ ‫036,116,1‬ ‫014,758,1‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ ﺗﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫770,15‬ ‫206,73‬ ‫807,82‬ ‫784,52‬ ‫910,05‬ ‫453,46‬ ‫889,97‬ ‫348,59‬ ‫658,411‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫532,61‬ ‫591,02‬ ‫490,45‬ ‫358,15‬ ‫207,76‬ ‫437,68‬ ‫885,701‬ ‫049,821‬ ‫645,451‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺭﮐﺗﻬﺎی ﮔﺭﻭﻩ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺳﺗﻪ‬ ‫646‬ ‫883,01‬ ‫912‬ ‫566,53‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫037,11‬ ‫ﭘﻳﺵ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻳﺭﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺩ‬ ‫438,9‬ ‫695,01‬ ‫315,9‬ ‫866,12‬ ‫107,02‬ ‫534,62‬ ‫880,33‬ ‫004,93‬ ‫589,64‬ ‫ﺣﺻﻪ ﺟﺎﺭی ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ‬ ‫934,491‬ ‫076,102‬ ‫241,701‬ ‫710,961‬ ‫608,852‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫281,692‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﭘﻳﺷﻧﻬﺎﺩی ﻭ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ‬ ‫364,56‬ ‫105,611‬ ‫707,751‬ ‫757,45‬ ‫334,07‬ ‫502,931‬ ‫650,912‬ ‫631,103‬ ‫140,593‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫496,733‬ ‫259,693‬ ‫383,753‬ ‫744,853‬ ‫093,974‬ ‫046,426‬ ‫236,747‬ ‫132,378‬ ‫933,910,1‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻧﺎﺩ ﭘﺭﺩﺍﺧﺗﻧﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺗﺳﻬﻳﻼﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﻠﻧﺩ ﻣﺩﺕ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻳﺭﻩ ﻣﺯﺍﻳﺎی ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﺩﻣﺕ‬ ‫977,11‬ ‫698,31‬ ‫316,61‬ ‫269,81‬ ‫420,72‬ ‫967,43‬ ‫512,34‬ ‫187,15‬ ‫350,26‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫977,11‬ ‫698,31‬ ‫316,61‬ ‫269,81‬ ‫420,72‬ ‫967,43‬ ‫512,34‬ ‫187,15‬ ‫350,26‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎی ﺟﺎﺭی ﻭ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺟﺎﺭی‬ ‫374,943‬ ‫848,014‬ ‫699,373‬ ‫904,773‬ ‫414,605‬ ‫904,956‬ ‫748,097‬ ‫110,529‬ ‫293,180,1‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫000,14‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫005,201‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫ﺻﺭﻑ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﻩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺗﯽ ﺑﺎﺑﺕ ﺍﻓﺯﺍﻳﺵ ﺳﺭﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺩﻭﺧﺗﻪ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻧﯽ‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫001,4‬ ‫052,01‬ ‫052,01‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫000,02‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺩﻭﺧﺗﻪ ﻁﺭﺡ ﻭ ﺗﻭﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺳﻭﺩ )ﺯﻳﺎﻥ( ﺍﻧﺑﺎﺷﺗﻪ‬ ‫690,101‬ ‫573,931‬ ‫958,441‬ ‫507,252‬ ‫328,682‬ ‫100,333‬ ‫271,393‬ ‫816,664‬ ‫810,655‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫691,641‬ ‫574,481‬ ‫959,981‬ ‫508,792‬ ‫375,993‬ ‫157,544‬ ‫271,316‬ ‫816,686‬ ‫810,677‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﻳﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‬ ‫966,594‬ ‫323,595‬ ‫559,365‬ ‫412,576‬ ‫789,509‬ ‫061,501,1‬ ‫810,404,1‬ ‫036,116,1‬ ‫014,758,1‬ ‫ﮐﻧﺗﺭﻝ )ﺟﻣﻊ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺋﯽ ﻫﺎ - ﺟﻣﻊ ﺑﺩﻫﯽ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺣﻘﻭﻕ ﺻﺎﺣﺑﺎﻥ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ(‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫0‬ ‫8‬