The exponential curve of energy technology and what that will mean to our economy and our world.

1. Ramez Naam
The Future of Energy

2. ENERGY, DISRUPTED
Ramez Naam @ramez

3. 14 YEARS IN TECH
Ramez Naam @ramez

4. RAMEZ NAAM
Ramez Naam @ramez

9. 1. WIND

10. 74 GW
487 GW 6.5x Growth
10 Years

11. 1
2
4
8
16
32
64
US cents per kwh
57 ₵ / kwh
4 ₵ / kwh
15x Price Decline
Wind Power Cost – US Interior (Unsubsidized)

12. Morocco: 2.8 cents / kwh

15. LARGER MARKET à LOWER PRICE

16. PRICES
FALL
TAP INTO
NEW
MARKETS
INCREASED
DEMAND

17. Wind Price Drops Through Learning

18. 1
2
4
8
16
32
64
US cents per kwh
Wind Will Keep GePng Cheaper

20. 2. SUN

21. $0.25
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
$4.00
$8.00
$16.00
$32.00
$64.00
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Cost of Solar Modules$77.00
$0.30
250x Price Decline
CROSSOVER: STARTING NOW

22. 5-6 cents / kwh

23. XINJIANG – TURPAN PREFECTURE
1,000 MW SOLAR PROJECT

24. Tucson: 4.3 cents per kwh

25. US SOLAR PRICE

26. India Solar Bids in 2017
3.8 cents (2.4 rupees)

27. Indian Solar Now Cheap as Coal
4x Price Drop in 4 Years

28. Mexico: 3.5 cents per kwh (Enel)

29. Chile: 2.91 cents / kwh

30. Dubai: 1.3 GW
2.42 cents / kwh
Bidder Bid per kwh
Marubeni, JikoSolar 2.42
Masdar, EDF, PAL Technology 2.54
Tenaga, Phelan Energy 2.59
RWE, Belectric 2.91

31. Source: IRENA (2017), ‘Renewable Energy Auc=ons: Analysing 2016’. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-008-2

32. 50x Growth
10 Years

33. Solar Growth Has Been Exponential

35. PRICES
FALL
TAP INTO
NEW
MARKETS
INCREASED
DEMAND

39. Javier Gil

40. California

41. Germany

42. 3. ENERGY STORAGE

46. TESLA
Prices Dropped 2x as Fast as Opbmists Projected
Lower than EIA Thought was EVER Possible

47. BUY POWER CHEAP, USE WHEN EXPENSIVE

48. TODAY: SURPLUS POWER à GRID

49. SOON: SURPLUS POWER à BATTERY

50. BaReries Follow Solar-Like Cost Curve

51. MANY MORE STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

52. CHEAPER ENERGY

57. Fraunhofer ISE ProjecVon

59. S O L A R
B A T T E R I E S

66. CHEAP, ABUNDANT
ELECTRICITY

67. 4. OIL

72. Falling Cost of Oil Sands ProducVon

73. PEAK OIL PRODUCTION

74. PEAK OIL DEMAND

77. 2% Oil Supply/Demand Imbalance Can Swing Prices by >200%

78. Short Term Oil Price Forecasts are Worthless – Status Quo Bias

79. ELECTRIFICATION

81. Transport as a Service

91. Transport as a Service

94. ELECTRIFICATION

98. 73% CAGR

99. PRICES
FALL
TAP INTO
NEW
MARKETS
INCREASED
DEMAND

102. Tesla Model 3
$35,000 350 km range

104. Nissan Leaf - 2018
< $30,000 240 km range

106. Electric Vehicle ProjecVons - USA
EIA: 20,000 EVs with 200
mile range by 2040

108. PRICES
FALL
TAP INTO
NEW
MARKETS
INCREASED
DEMAND

109. $-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Cost of 200 mile EV
Average US Car Price 2015 - $33,500
Lowest US New Car Price 2015 - $14,020

110. Beijing: 70,000 Taxis to Become Electric

114. China: 5% New Vehicles EVs by 2020
20% by 2025

116. Global Oil Demand – Millions of Barrels Per Day (BNEF)

117. By 2030 “Demand will flaRen out…maybe
even decline”
- Joel Couse
Total SA Chief Economist

118. Demand could peak in the 2020s, “then
we’ll have a shrinking oil industry”
- Statoil CEO Elder Saetre, 2016

119. “of the opinion that demand will peak
before supply … somewhere between 5 and
15 years hence”
- Shell CFO Simon Henry, 2016

125. Canadian Exports 2016

126. Canadian Exports 2016

127. Canadian Exports 2016

128. 10% of Canadian GDP

130. 5. TAKE ACTION

141. AngelList

145. POLICY
BIZ TECH

146. $0.25
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
$4.00
$8.00
$16.00
$32.00
$64.00
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Cost of Solar Power$77.00
$0.30
250x Price Decline

147. POLICY INNOVATION
(NET METERING)

149. BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
SOLAR FINANCING

150. TECH
BIZ
POLICY
LEADERSHIP

151. TECH
BIZ
POLICY
OPPORTUNITY

152. iPhone vs. ENIAC
Michael O’Donnell

153. Knowledge is a Replicator

155. ENERGY, DISRUPTED
Ramez Naam @ramez