Richardson Oliver Insights produces an annual report on the patent market. Their database covers more than 150k patent assets across more than 700k deals. Kent will be presenting on the secondary patent market for patents, how big is it, who is buying, who is selling, what is pricing and what are the changes of winning with bought patents.
CAFC Chronicles: Costly Tales of Claim Construction Fails
Buy, Sell, Hold? The Market for Patents and What It Can Tell Us
1. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Buy, Sell, Hold?
The Market for Patents and What It
Can Tell Us
Kent Richardson, CEO
March 13, 2019
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2. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Look back
Market dynamics
Predictions
Agenda
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3. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Kent Richardson
CEO of Richardson Oliver Insights
More than $100M in patent purchases/sales
Proprietary database with over 150,000 patent assets for
sale
Recognized as top worldwide IP strategists for 10+ years
(IAM300)
Advisor and analyst for defensive strategies against
Intellectual Ventures and large corporate patent asserters
Patent attorney for 25 years. General counsel of public
company. Formerly Rambus, Numerical Technologies,
Sezmi, Thinkfire, and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati
Email: kent@roipatents.com
Brief Introduction
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4. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
What’s the Secondary Patent Market?
Seller Buyer
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5. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
What Is in a Brokered Patent Package?
°Typical package
°List of patents for sale, applicable market, infringement analysis (claim chart), background on the seller
°Asking price, bid dates, special circumstances (license back, specific encumbrances)
°Example package from Patent Profit (Will Plut)
°Confluence Patent Portfolio
°Single family (15 US Patents and 7 open applications) relating to social network data aggregation. 2006 priority date
°Received July 2013. Sold October 2014
°Asking prices: “7 figures”
°Multiple claim charts presented for
° Apple, Google, Facebook
°Purchased by an operating company
°Fingerprint Cards AB
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6. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
#ofAssets
Portfolio Growth by Priority Year
Organic Portfolio Projected Organic Portfolio
2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
#Assets
Total Portfolio by Priority Year
Acquired Portfolio Organic Portfolio
LinkedIn – What You Can Do Over Four Years
For more information on the LinkedIn patent strategy, see “How and Why LinkedIn Learned to Love
Patents.” Harrington et. al. IAM Magazine Issue 82 (March 2017), available for download here
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8. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Nine Years Make a Difference
2010 2019
Sources
Transactions
Pricing
Capabilities
Private
ROI
IAM Market
Bloomberg
Only WSJ
published deals
Quarterly public data
Skewed and opaque
Intellectual Ventures
plus select companies
7 Years of ROI annual reports
Private analysis of >$500M closed deals
Multiple ways to buy
SMEs buying
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9. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Look back
Market dynamics
Predictions
Agenda
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10. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Deal Flow
Sellers
Buyers
Direct Sales
>1000 deals per year hit the market
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11. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
ROI Patent Market Report
$XB in
spending
8000
offerings
150K
patent
assets
7th annual report
“ROI’s brokered patent market report continues
to be one of the year’s most read and
anticipated pieces amongst IAM’s subscriber
base of global IP executives and professionals”
- Joff Wild, Editor in Chief of IAM
2018 report in a nutshell
“The patent market has fully stabilized and
prices are rational,” said no one ever.
The ROI Patent Market Report
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12. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cumulative sum of asking prices ($B) - brokered and private market
Cum Sum Asking Price (Entire Market) Cum Sum Total Asking Price (Sold) Predicted Cum Sum Asking Price (Entire Market) Predicted Cum Sum Total Asking Price (Sold)
$17B in Patents Offered on the Secondary Market
Unsold
Sold
Billions of dollars of unsold patents on the market.
Litigation risks continue to increase
$B
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13. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
What’s the Asking Price of a Patent?
$176,000
30% drop from 2017but it’s complicated
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14. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
More
assets
Lower per
asset
price
Where Did the 2018 Price Drop Originate?
-56%
single asset
deals
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16. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Asking Prices Reported Quarterly
Source: Google Makes First Sale in U.S. Brokered Patent Market. (2019). Bnanews.bna.com.2019, from https://bnanews.bna.com/ip-
law/google-makes-first-sale-in-us-brokered-patent-market
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17. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Asking Prices Are Stabilizing’ish
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$K
Listing Year
Average Asking Prices ($K)
USMean AssetMean
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18. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
What’s Hot in the Patent Market Today
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19. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Alice impacted Versus not Alice impacted
What is targeted in Alice impacted packages?
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20. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<1 <2 <3 <4 <5
Cummulative%sold
Time from package listing date to sale date (years)
2014
2015
2016
Predicted
2017
Sales Rates Dropping or Shifting?
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21. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Some Brokers Are More Effective Than Others
Better
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23. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Distribution of Sellers
66%
sellers are
corporations
time to join?
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24. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Distribution of Buyers
42%
buyers are
NPEs
time to join anybody?!
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25. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Sellers
Aaron Emigh
Alcatel Lucent
Allied Security Trust (AST)
ATT
Bell & Howell, LLC
Clifford Sweatte
Concert Technology
Foxsemicon Integrated Technology, Inc.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPe)
Hewlett Packard Inc (HP inc)
IBM
Intel Corporation
Intellectual Ventures
IP Cube Partners (ICP) Co., Ltd
KT Corporation
Mirai Ventures LLC
MITRE Corporation
Nokia Communications Company
Panasonic Corporation
Pendrell Technologies
Seiko Epson Corporation
Sony Corporation
Xerox
Buyers
Akoloutheo, Llc
Allied Security Trust (AST)
Blackbird Tech Llc
Brunoco, Inc.
Cria Inc.
Didi (Hk) Science And Technology Limited
Etsy Inc.
Fiver, Llc
Fluence Automation Llc
Google Inc.
Innobrilliance, Llc
Insight Interfaces Llc
Intellectual Ventures
Jlp United States Patent Solutions, Llc
Knapp Investment Company
Nokia Communications Company
Open Invention Network, Llc
Pathunt Ip Management Limited
Prosper Technology, Llc
Provenance
Red Dragon Innovations, Llc
RPX
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Scenera Technologies, Llc
Servicenow, Inc.
Spectrum Patents, Inc.
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Uniloc Luxembourg S.A.
Wi-Fi One, Llc
WSOU Investments LLC
Multiple Sellers and Buyers 2017 - 2018
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26. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Litigation Analysis: You Can Model Your Risk
Litigations (2012-2018 market year packages)
Inter partes reviews (2014-2018 market year
packages)
Package Type Before listing date After listing date Ever Before listing date After listing date Ever
Sold packages 6.6% 16.3% 21.1% 0.8% 6.0% 6.8%
Unsold packages 3.9% 3.9% 7.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3%
All packages 4.6% 7.0% 10.4% 0.5% 2.2% 2.7%
16.3% of sold packages are litigated – time to update models?
6% of sold packages are IPRed after listing – very few before they are listed
Both sold and unsold packages are litigated post listing
Defensive aggregator value may be greater than anticipated
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27. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
What Happens when You Litigate Bought Patents?
°Operating companies are successful
°33% self-generated vs.
°23% bought
°Conclusion: bought patents work, and factor the spread into your models
Source: “Patent Purchases and Litigation Outcomes.” Lemley et. al. 2016 Patently-O Patent L.J. 15 (December 2016)
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28. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Look back
Market dynamics
Predictions
Agenda
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30. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Trends and Predictions
More international sales
Prices – stabilize’ish
Sales rates – remain low
Faster and simpler transactions expand market
NPEs continue to buy – fewer buyers drive this part of the market
More and varied patent sales
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31. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Challenges in Analyzing
°Data
°Data cleaning
°Clean data
°Data clean yet
°Assignees…
°Pricing
°Sales information
°Correlation, causation
°Machine learning opportunities
Analysis challenges
and Presenting
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32. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Presenting – Clarify and Captivate
Dark Horse Analytics an example of pushing analytics and visualizations
https://www.darkhorseanalytics.com/
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33. PATENT MARKET DATA
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS
Learning More – Further Resources
°Richardson Oliver Insights
°New data-business, increasing patent market transparency
°Home page has updated market data
°roipatents.com
°Hosts reports and analysis on the market
°“The 2018 Brokered Patent Market” Richardson et. al. IAM Magazine (January 2019)
°“An Empirical Look at the ‘Brokered’ Market for Patents.” Love et. al. SSRN (October 2017)
°“Patent Purchases and Litigation Outcomes.” Lemley et. al. 2016 Patently-O Patent L.J. 15
(December 2016)
°roipatents.com/publications/
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