1. CDL Research
20 February 2013 1
Nigeria Political Update
The Merger of Nigeria’s Main Opposition Parties
§ Overview: On February 6th, Nigeria’s main opposition parties formed a new group known as the All
Progressive Congress (APC). The principal constituents of the newly formed APC are the Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), All Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA)* and Congress of Progressive Change (CPC). The newly formed APC intends to pursue the
next general election on a common political platform which means that all the component groups
would have been dissolved before that time. However, as things stand, PDP’s majority across board is
still firm (See Figures 4, 6 and 8). In addition, a simulation based on the actual results of the 2011
elections indicates that PDP may have won the general elections even if the major opposition parties
had merged then (See Figure 2). Because of the divergent leanings of the component groups within
the APC, it may be difficult for the party to forge a common political ideology in the short to medium
term.
§ A Kenyan Inspired Model: The near dominance of the Nigerian political space by a single party
and the absence of virile opposition indicate that the country’s political system is still immature.
Previous attempts at correcting these anomalies have been feeble and poorly executed. We believe the
newly formed APC may have been inspired by the Kenyan National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).
Faced with a strong ruling party that had been in power for decades under Arap Moi, Kenya’s main
opposition parties tried to form a loose coalition at the 1997 election. But in-fighting and poor co-
ordination meant the coalition failed at first attempt. However with the benefit of hindsight, NARC
won the elections at a second attempt at the 2002 elections and not only inflicted the ruling party –
KANU’s first electoral defeat but also ended its 39-year reign.
PDP,58.9%
CPC, 32.0%
ACN,5.4%
ANPP,2.4% Others,1.3%
Figure 1: Presidential Elections of2011
Source: CIA Fact Book
PDP, 58.9%
APC, 39.8%
Others, 1.30%
Figure 2: A retrospective viewof2011 Presidential elections
with a unitedopposition
Source:CDL Research
Jimi Ogbobine
jogbobine@cdlnigeria.com
*APGA: Recent
press reports suggest
that APGA’s
membership of APC
is still in contention.

2. CDL Research
20 February 2013 2
§ Will PDP remain the Messi of Nigeria politics: In a dismissive witty pun aimed at the opposition,
the Chairman of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) says that the party will remain the
dominant political group in the country. Probably inspired by the just concluded African Nations Cup
in South Africa, he likens PDP’s dominance of the Nigerian political space to Messi’s grip on global
football – a parallel that will resonate with the legion of football frenzy fans across the country. Press
statements by other top brass of the PDP High Command signify that while they recognise the
potency of a stronger opposition, they are probably not fazed. PDP’s spread across the country firmly
strengthened by the prowess of its grassroots machinery will require deep pockets and some
unflinching hard work for any opposition party to match.
§ Earlier than expected kick-off for 2015: The decision by the merging groups within the APC to
fuse mid-way into the 2011-2015 political cycle suggests that lessons have been learnt from the
ACN/CPC merger debacle on the eve of the 2011 elections. On the other hand, the merger
arrangement at this time also signifies that the political class may have commenced preparations for
the 2014/2015 political season well ahead of time. Ordinarily, these early preparations should result
in a smoother electoral process with keener competition. It will also afford the newly formed political
party sufficient time to build a strong grassroots machinery well ahead of the next general elections.
Ironically, it will also give members of the political class an early window of opportunity to resume
cross-carpeting across the divides.
PDP,24
ACN,6
ANPP,2
APGA,2
CPC, 1
LP, 1
Figure 3: State Governors by Party Affiliation (Pre-Merger)
Source: CDL Research
PDP, 24
ACP*, 11
LP, 1
Figure 4: State Governors by Party Affiliation (Post-Merger)
Source: CDL Research
§ Rising connectivity between politics and the economy: The world was once again reminded of the
nexus between politics and the economy when inaction by the political class largely distorted the
markets especially in Europe (Greece debt crisis) and then the US (fiscal cliff). A crisis in politics
could lead to a contagion across the markets and the broader economy. Nigeria’s history is rich with
episodes of political dysfunction leading to economic malaise. These range from the severe austerity
in the early 1980s caused by the bad governance of 1979–1983 and the economic upheavals in the
1990s due to the June 12 political crisis. Thus economic stability can only be guaranteed in the long
run by a sound political environment. The lessons from India suggest that when a country’s political
system is based on regional and tribal based parties, it may become harder to even push through
positive economic reforms. Nigeria needs more parties challenging beyond a narrow regional scope.
The inclusion of
Nigeria in the JP
Morgan and
Barclays Indexes
imply that the next
general elections will
be closely followed
by offshore investors
and the international
market

3. CDL Research
20 February 2013 3
§ Implications of this merger for the economy: Nigeria’s economy will fare better on the long run
when the country has a robust and ambitious opposition aiming to provide a credible alternative
platform for governance. The presence of this kind of opposition will not only deepen the political
system but bring out the best in the ruling party. It will help the ruling party pursue economic reforms
that will engender growth and prosperity across board. Overall, a strong opposition capable of
breaking into strong holds and precincts of the ruling party and vice versa will only strengthen
Nigeria’s political system. This vulnerability at elections will make the Nigerian political class more
responsible to fulfilling its obligations to the citizenry post-elections. However, risks abound when
there is a stronger and united opposition. The major risk is that with a more ambitious opposition
capable of causing major electoral upsets, the governing party is less inclined to pushing through
especially on tough economic reforms for short term populist programmes in return for votes.
§ Now is the time to push through with economic reforms: As we are mid-way between the 2011-
2015 political cycle, we see 2013 as the crucial year for key economic reforms for a number of
reasons. We believe that policymakers will become distracted in 2014 as we commence the political
process that will culminate in the primary elections in the year and then the general elections in either
Q4/2014 or Q1/2015. There is a need for greater urgency especially on key reform issues like the
Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and the Power Sector Reforms and to resolve the differences around the
Sovereign Wealth Fund within this window of opportunity that 2013 presents.
PDP, 73
ACN, 17
CPC, 6
ANPP, 8
LP, 4
APGA, 1
Figure 5: Senate Composition (Pre-Merger)
Source: EIU (Seats as at July,2012)
PDP, 73
ACP*, 32
LP, 4
Figure 6: Senate Composition(Post-Merger)
Source: CDL Research.
The conduct and
outcome of the next
general elections
will also reflect on
the pricing of the
Nigerian
Eurobond(s)

4. CDL Research
20 February 2013 4
PDP, 205
ACN,66
CPC, 35
ANPP,
31
LP, 7
APGA, 16
Figure 7: House of Representatives Composition (Pre-Merger)
Source: EIU (Seats as at July, 2012)
PDP, 205
APC*, 148
LP, 7
Figure 8: House ofRepresentatives (Post-Merger)
Source: CDL Research
*ACP: APGA’s membership of the APC is still in doubt. Figure 4: If APGA fails to join APC, then APC will only have 9 Governors post-merger and
not 11 as the chart suggests. Figure 6: APC will have 31 senators post-merger if APGA fails to join the party and not 32. Figure 8: APC House of
Representatives membership could drop to 132 if APGA fails to join the party and not 148.

5. CDL Research
20 February 2013 5
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