This workshop will be unlike any other you’ve attended. Prepare to experience strategic thinking within a new and truly unique framework. Participants will be introduced to strategy tactics that offer adept navigation during the birth of a new trend as well as how to adapt to shifts in an existing trend’s lifecycle. Working together attendees will be presented with current and emerging trends in today’s market. Workshop participants will be assigned to fictitious Company teams and product lines. Using these unique strategic analytical tools, team members will decide corporate strategic movements in response to changes in a trends profile which will directly affect their “products”. Working through a series of steps, teams will create new strategy plans to help their “Company” adapt to the changing landscape and preserve their position in the marketplace. Other teams may experience the challenge of identifying an emerging trend’s substance though the use of these analytical tools and developing strategic corporate moves to capitalize on the trend’s birth.

1. SUZY BADARACCO
President,
Culinary Tides Inc.
Suzy Badaracco is a toxicologist, chef, and registered dietitian.
She has been trained in military intelligence, chaos theory, and predictive
analysis techniques and has been able to successfully
predict and profile food, flavor, consumer, packaging, and health
trends for more than 14 years.
Engaging Strategic Thinking
When Navigating Trends

2. Engaging Strategic Thinking When Navigating Trends
Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy Badaracco, President
Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian

3. Who We Are…What We Do
• Who we are:
– Private Trends Forecasting Think Tank – Staff = 7
– 2 Satellite offices – Washington DC, Tokyo
– Forecast work is created through military intelligence techniques,
Chaos Theory
– Background: BS Criminalistics, Assoc. Culinary Arts, MS Nutrition
• Toxicologist, Chef, Registered Dietitian
• What we do:
– Partner long term w/ food industry clients
– Act as side along think tank for clients – looking for patterns in chaos
– Produce custom monthly & quarterly reports for clients
• Government, Technology, Adversaries / Allies, Competitors, Research,
Flavor & Cuisine - tracked and forecasted specific to client
• Quarterly reports include updated 12-18 month forecast for each area

4. Chaos, Blips, Shadows, Trends
• Chaos
– Birth
• Blips
• Shadows
• Trends
– Tracking

5. Trends Birth & Death
• Birth
– Champion
– Links to other existing
trends
• Death
– Research or
technology counter to
the trend
– Competing trend(s)
– Powerful adversary

6. Today’s Areas of Focus
• Time Lining Diagram
– Directional movement around an event / topic
• Quadrant Analysis
– Patterns activity by grouping players, reveals clusters
• Link Diagram
– Organizes chaos – used to identify trend before it is born
• Morph
– Occurs when cousin to a current trend steals the spotlight
• Ricochet
– Trend jumps tracts
• Courier
– Shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
• Fusion
– Trend with multiple parents
AnalysisPhenomenon(birthtypes)
*Each group will be working with all 3 Analysis and 1 Phenomenon

7. Time Lining
* Directional movement around an event / topic

8. Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior
Black Box-restaurant $h
Technomic-fast casual
$ h
NRA-expectations index h
NRA-current
situation h
NRA-RPI h
CSG- Restaurant
spending h
Consumer+Consumer-
12/14 1/15
U Michigan – Consumer sentiment h
Gallup 2 – Confidence h
Gallup 1 – Confidence h
RetailNext - $, traffic i
Euclid - $, traffic i
Commerce Dept-retail $ i
Commerce Dept-restaurant $ h
Blackbox- restaurant $ h
APT- restaurant $ h
NACS- confidence i

9. Quadrant Analysis
*Patterns activity by grouping players, reveals clusters

10. Adversarial Effects on Trends
• Adversaries can come in the form of
government, industry groups, company,
competing trends, technology, research, etc.
• Effect materializes as either:
– Morph – a cousin steels the spotlight
– Crash – trend is killed
– Redirect – trend moves to new positioning, usually
downsized

11. Salt: Adversarial Groups 2/11-2/12
Research
AMA - USA
APHA -USA
CSPI – USA
AHA – USA
Which? - UK
BHF - UK
CASH - UK
Choice - AU
Grocery
Food
Manufacturers
Government
Product
Segments
Restaurants
All
All
CASH
AMA
AHA
Which?
AMA
Choice
BHF
AHA
CSPIAPHA
CASH
AHA
Choice

12. Government
Technology
Health
Consumer
Food
Travel
Beverage
1. Kids
2. Snacking/Clockless eating
3. Unprocessed (natural)
4. Regional, Seasonal (R/S)
5. Brazilian
6. Filipino
7. Deep South/Low country
(DS/LC)
8. Hybrids (fusion’s rebirth)
9. Cocktails
10. Nose to tail + (N/T) –
includes sea to table, root
to stalk, farm to glass, etc.
All
All
1, 2, 3, 4,
8, 9, 103, 4, 5,
6, 9, 10
1, 2, 3, 4,
9, 10
1, 2,
3, 10
2, 3, 8, 9
Top 10 Themes 2015
*Quadrant Analysis - Patterns activity by grouping players, reveals clusters

13. Link Diagrams
Organizes chaos – used to identify trend before it is born

14. Consumer Drivers - Recovery
Drivers
Economy
Men Evolve
Deal Chic
Cost / Value Co-exist
Recession Rejection
Brands=Value
Resilience
Optimism
Control, Safety
Reassurance
Stability
Accountability
GMO
Legacy
Never Eat Alone
Health
Portion Options
Pure
FOP
Wellness=Quality
Kids
Snacking
Sustainability
Seasonal
Green Verification
Animal Rights
Re-commerce
Indigenous
Affordable Green
Risk Taking
Motivation
Family Meals
Mobile Relationships
Value
Simplicity
Authenticity
Escapism
Playfulness
Brands
Invigorating

15. Morphs, Ricochets, Couriers, Fusion

16. Morph: Low Carb
Gluten FreeLow Carb Low GI Dukan
*Morph: Cousin steals the spotlight
Paleo
Wheat Belly
Grain Brain
2004 2006 2008 2011 2012 2013
*All villianize carbs

17. Ricochets
• Tea & Coffee
– Beverage Seasoning
• Smoke
– Cooking Method Flavor Carrier
• Virginia Dare & Wild: Blossom Extracts
– Scent Flavor
• Ungerer: Fiber
• Digestion Flavor Carrier
• Kellogg Special K:
– Cereal Crackers, Water
• Menu Labeling: State Gov. & Lean Act
– Retail Food Service
*Trend jumps tracts

18. Courier
*Couriers shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
Asian Flavor Shift
• Courier birth, Parent = Travel
• Flavors shift away from Thai, Japanese, Korean & towards Malaysia,
Laos, Cambodia, Nepal
• Shift due to rise in consumer confidence, risk taking, adventure seeking
Caribbean & Pacific Travel
• Courier birth, Parent = Economic recovery (translated to travel shifts)
• Cuba, Bora Bora, New Zealand, Tasmania, Fiji, French Polynesia
• Travel here signals luxury, time h, $$, playfulness
• Travel then translated to rise in food and flavors from these regions

19. Fusion Birth: Nordic Cuisine
• Other Traits:
– Cross ties Arctic & EU – Antarctica, Nepal, Lapland, Iceland, Norway,
Scandinavia, Finland, Netherlands, Greenland
– Travel here signals solitude, bravery, $$, fearlessness, curiosity,
exploration
– Nordic diet compared to Mediterranean Diet in clinical health research
* Fusion Birth: Multiple Birth Parents
Parents
Travel
Economic Recovery
Cross Ties
Foraging
Superfruits - berries
Local
Seasonal
Bakery
Heritage
Smoke
Cured, Pickled
Dairy
Seafood
Health

20. To Begin:
• Each table has been divided into “Companies” – “1”s (A-C) & “2”s(A-C)
• Each company has its own product line
– “1”s – Presented with a new trend birth
• Each group must devise a strategy to enter trend
– “2”s – Presented with a shift in a current trend
• Each group must devise a strategy on how to shift current strategy
1. Each group will be given a corporate identity, trend, & obstacle
2. Select group leader (present findings, keeps group on task) & secretary
3. Using intelligence packet information, work through strategy questions
4. Present trend scenario (product line, trend, obstacle), new strategy
direction and why
Suggestions:
• If sitting with colleagues – Ditch them (split up)
• When you see your assigned company – if you actually work for the
same segment of industry – switch tables
– (ie. If your work for a bread co., and you end up in the bread co. group – run!)

21. Strategy Questions
Workshop Goals
1. To better understand how chaos analytics are used to aid strategy decisions.
 (Designed to show how to use chaos analytics, not how to create chaos analytics)
2. Next time a new trend is born or a current trend shifts, you may take a more
3-dimentional approach, ask more questions, gather more sources, and be alert
earlier to coming change.
1. Is the trend a threat or opportunity to your product lines?
2. What do the models reveal to help you decide how to track / navigate / anticipate?
3. Who does it trigger to enter? Ex.- Competitors? Government?
4. Are there any allies to align with?
5. What market changes does it trigger? Ex - Consumer behavior?
6. What information are you missing?
7. What is the entrance strategy your company plans to use?
a. Is there a particular demographic / target market you are pursuing?
b. How do you plan on overcoming the obstacle(s)?
c. How will current product lines be affected, if at all or do you anticipate new
product lines / directions?
d. Marketing ideas for communicating entrance strategy to consumers?

22. Today’s Task
Assume the Following:
• You must enter the trend.
• Although there are obstacles or adversaries identified in the materials -
money is not one of the obstacles.
• Your company currently has no products related to the assigned trend,
therefore strategy must be developed to engage trend.
• As these scenarios are fictitious, some of the data used to create the
materials is real and some is fictitious. For the simulation to work, operate
as if all events and research provided are accurate.
– 90%+ of material are actual events / research, 10%- creative license
– ie. Suspend disbelief and just get on board!
• Groups are not to create products or product lines (unless you finish early
and are bored) – your focus is strictly on strategy development.
• Time Frame: Develop strategy – 1.5 hrs
» Presentation to groups -20 minutes (3-5 min each)
» 10 -15 minute break

23. Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy Badaracco
President
www.culinarytides.com
sbadaracco@culinarytides.com
https://twitter.com/sbadaracco
(503) 880-4682
Thank You!

24. Coming
up next
SUZY BADARACCO
@sbadaracco
www.culinarytides.com
sbadaracco@culinarytides.com
Hot Topic Discussion
Engaging Strategic Thinking
When Navigating Trends