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Hospital networks: Perspective
from three years ofexchanges
McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
As of 03.05.2016...
1
Proportion of narrowed networks has remained relatively constant, yet the overall
number of networks has declined
2
Medi...
DEFINITIONS
Network types vary in their hospital participation:
Broad network: More than 70% of hospitals in a rating area...
Distribution of individual
exchange hospital networks
by breadth
1 Network calculations are based on the number of network...
31 31 26
32 30
29
37 39 45
2014 2015 2016
19 16 17
24 28 24
7 4 1
50 52 58
2014 2015 2016
33 31 26
21 24 31
8 8 8
38 37 35...
In 2016, premium differences between narrowed and
broad networks have widened across all metal tiers,
although factors bey...
% median silver premium increases among re-filed 2014 and 2015 plans
1 Includes ultra-narrow, narrow and tiered networks.
...
% of networks by price category1 in regions with
at least one narrowed network
16
11 11
22
15
23 23 21 21 22 23 22
15
19 1...
37
44
46
50
8
13
6
5
29
26
24
21
26
17
24
24 512>35%
0% -
10%
409
338
872
LOWEST-
PRICE
11% -
35%
34
43
51
62
6
8
6
6
33
2...
26 28
37
52
58 60 56 60
6818 15
19
12
10
15
12
14
11
48 52
35
30 26
20
25 16
15
8 5 9 6 6 5 7 10 6
Trends across network
b...
% of QHP-eligible consumers with access to various network types1
8 5
14
83 86
74
9 9 12
Broad only Narrowed onlyBoth
Cons...
Between 2015 and 2016, median network breadth stayed
relatively constant in urban counties, but increased in
rural countie...
Difference in distribution of
exchange networks between
2015 and 2016
The largest increases between 2015 and 2016 in the
p...
2014 post-3R financial
performance and network
breadth
Select 2014 post-3R, post-tax individual market financial metrics a...
Offering and price
competitiveness of
co-branded and provider-
led plans
Provider-led carriersCo-branded relationships
1 A...
2015 CMS hospital
performance metrics and 2016
network breadth
Weighted-average scores for all exchange hospital networks ...
METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES
The above findings are based on publicly available data.
Other relevant publications can be found ...
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Hospital networks: Perspective from three years of exchanges

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McKinsey's analysis of every hospital network across the US.

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Hospital networks: Perspective from three years of exchanges

  1. 1. Hospital networks: Perspective from three years ofexchanges McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform As of 03.05.2016 healthcare.mckinsey.com/reform
  2. 2. 1 Proportion of narrowed networks has remained relatively constant, yet the overall number of networks has declined 2 Median premiums for narrowed-network plans have declined even further compared to broad-network plans 3 Consumers’ choice of networks has declined, with more consumers only having access to narrowed networks in 2016 4 Margins are higher for exchange carriers with narrowed networks than those with broad networks 5 Co-branded provider/carrier relationships have become increasingly common Hospital networks: Perspective from three years of exchanges We analyzed every hospital network across the country and uncovered the following insights: 2 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  3. 3. DEFINITIONS Network types vary in their hospital participation: Broad network: More than 70% of hospitals in a rating area participate in this network. Narrow network: More than 30% and no more than 70% of hospitals participate. Ultra-narrow network: No more than 30% of hospitals participate. Tiered network: Any network with multiple levels of in-network cost-sharing for hospital services. Narrowed network: Narrow, ultra-narrow, and tiered network, unless otherwise noted. Note: Only hospital networks are considered in these analyses. Physician networks are not covered. Plan types typically vary in their gatekeeping arrangements and out-of-network cost-sharing: HMO (health maintenance organization): a plan that typically offers a primary care physician who acts as gatekeeper to other services and referrals; it usually provides no coverage for out-of-network services, except in emergency or urgent care situations. EPO (exclusive provider organization): a plan similar to an HMO that usually provides no coverage for any services delivered by out-of-network providers or facilities except in emergency or urgent care situations; however, it generally does not require members to use a primary care physician for in-network referrals. PPO (preferred provider organization): a plan that typically allows members to see physicians and get services that are not part of a network, but out-of-network services often require a higher co-payment. POS (point-of-service plan): a hybrid of an HMO and a PPO; offering an open-access model that may assign members to a primary care physician and usually provides partial coverage for out-of-network services. Other terms: Competitively priced plan: Any plan within 10% of the lowest-price plan within the relevant market and on the relevant metal tier. Co-branded plan: Any insurance plan offered by a carrier that includes the brand name of or refers to the brand of a healthcare provider. 3 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  4. 4. Distribution of individual exchange hospital networks by breadth 1 Network calculations are based on the number of networks offered in each rating area (the same network offered in four different rating areas would be considered four different networks, potentially with different network breadths). 2 437 networks were lost in 2016 due to carrier exits; of these, 73% were broad. The proportion of narrowed networks has remained relatively flat. Yet, total number of networks decreased over 10% from 2015 to 2016, primarily driven by carrier exits1. 66% of terminated networks were broad, while 45% of newly added networks were broad.2 Across the U.S. % of hospital networks across all metal tiers In the largest city of each U.S. state % of hospital networks across all metal tiers KEY: Narrow Ultra-narrow Broad Tiered 23 21 21 32 34 35 6 7 6 39 38 38 2014 2015 2016 2,418 2,864 2,530 20 17 18 22 22 25 6 6 5 52 55 52 2014 2015 2016 324 372 339100% = Number of network-rating area combinations1 4 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  5. 5. 31 31 26 32 30 29 37 39 45 2014 2015 2016 19 16 17 24 28 24 7 4 1 50 52 58 2014 2015 2016 33 31 26 21 24 31 8 8 8 38 37 35 2014 2015 2016 57 36 29 36 52 56 7 12 15 2014 2015 2016 12 9 9 15 18 18 8 9 8 65 64 65 2014 2015 2016 While most carrier types offered fewer networks this year than in 2015, many Medicaid carriers and providers increased the number of networks they offered. Medicaid and national carriers, in aggregate, have increased their proportion of narrow networks (from 52% to 56% and 24% to 31%, respectively). Blues continue to offer the highest proportion of broad networks — about two-thirds. Network breadth by carrier type % of networks across tiers by network breadth, for carriers participating across 2014–20161 BLUE CO-OP MEDICAID NATIONAL 251 277 266 PROVIDER 373 393 414 REGIONAL/LOCAL 287 282 264 KEY: Ultra-narrowNarrowTieredBroad 100% = Number of network-rating area combinations 121 130 144 1 Only carriers who participated in their state for all 3 years are shown, in order to exclude effects of carrier exits and entrances. 979 906 834 14 10 10 39 12 14 4 28 27 43 50 49 2014 2015 2016 70 90 86 5 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  6. 6. In 2016, premium differences between narrowed and broad networks have widened across all metal tiers, although factors beyond hospital network breadth may have played a part. On the silver tier, the most commonly purchased, broad networks are now 22% higher priced than narrowed ones, compared to 16% in 2014 and 2015. Premium difference between broad and narrowed networks % difference between median premium for broad and narrowed networks from the same carrier and plan type1,2,3 2014 BRONZE SILVER GOLD PLATINUM +11% +15% +17% +16% +22% +23% +17% +23% +33% KEY: 2015 2016 1 Narrowed networks comprise ultra-narrow and narrow networks in this analysis, i.e., any with network breadth less than or equal to 70%. Tiered networks are excluded from the analysis. 2 Plan types include PPO, HMO, EPO, and POS. 3 Median prices are based on premiums for a 40–year-old single non-smoker. When a network has multiple plans, the lowest-price plan is used as price of the network. If there are multiple networks available for selection as “narrowed,” the narrowest is selected. If there are multiple networks available for selection as broad, the broadest is selected. +16% +16% +16% 6 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  7. 7. % median silver premium increases among re-filed 2014 and 2015 plans 1 Includes ultra-narrow, narrow and tiered networks. 5 8 10 2015 - 162014 - 15 12 Premium increases for broad and narrowed networks NARROWED1 BROAD Narrowed network plans had lower premium increases than broad network plans for the past two years. KEY: 7 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  8. 8. % of networks by price category1 in regions with at least one narrowed network 16 11 11 22 15 23 23 21 21 22 23 22 15 19 16 28 26 23 17 23 24 12 23 19 42 41 44 33 37 42 40 40 38 41 37 42 27 29 29 17 22 12 20 16 17 25 17 17 >35% above lowest-price Lowest-price11-35% above lowest-price Close to half of narrow and ultra-narrow networks are priced competitively (within 10% of lowest price) in 2016, compared with less than a third of broad networks. Price competitiveness of narrowed networks is increasing, while price competitiveness of broad is declining. Price gap to lowest-price plan by network breadth 1 Price category is the difference between a network’s lowest-priced plan and the lowest-priced plan within the same metal tier in the same rating area. For networks with multiple tiers, the tier used for the network price is chosen in priority order: silver, bronze, gold, platinum, catastrophic. For networks with multiple plans at different prices within the same tier and rating area, the lowest-price plan is used. KEY2: 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 BROAD TIERED NARROW ULTRA-NARROW 0-10% above lowest-price 960 1257 1006 153 165 119 495 492 457 523 639 626 100% = Number of network-rating area combinations 8 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  9. 9. 37 44 46 50 8 13 6 5 29 26 24 21 26 17 24 24 512>35% 0% - 10% 409 338 872 LOWEST- PRICE 11% - 35% 34 43 51 62 6 8 6 6 33 28 25 17 27 21 18 15 585 412 1,021 535 30 38 48 60 7 6 5 36 35 26 21 27 21 16 379 426 3 21 490 913 Narrow Ultra-narrowBroad Tiered 2014 2015 2016 1 Price category is defined as the premium gap to the lowest-price product. This is the difference between a network’s lowest-priced plan and the lowest-priced plan within the same metal tier in the same rating area. For networks with multiple tiers, the tier used for the network price is chosen in priority order: silver, bronze, gold, platinum, catastrophic. For networks with multiple plans at different prices within the same tier and rating area, the lowest-price plan is used. % of networks in each price category1 by breadth in rating areas with at least one narrowed network Price category by network breadth Narrowed networks continue to be more common among lower-price plans; the proportion of narrowed networks among price leaders increased from 66% to 70% in 2016. 100% = Number of network-rating area combinations KEY: 9 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  10. 10. 26 28 37 52 58 60 56 60 6818 15 19 12 10 15 12 14 11 48 52 35 30 26 20 25 16 15 8 5 9 6 6 5 7 10 6 Trends across network breadth and plan type % of silver network offerings by plan type1,2 Plans are becoming more managed (i.e., HMO’s, EPO’s) across all network breadth types, which can lead to less consumer choice at the point of care. 100% = Network-rating area combinations 1 Plan types reported were taken directly from exchange websites and Summary of Benefits and Coverage (SBC) documents. 2 When multiple silver plans are available on a single network we use the plan type associated with the lowest-price silver plan in that network. 4435071,148 4796231,548 4511,295 612 BROAD NARROW ULTRA-NARROW KEY: HMOEPOPPOPOS 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 10 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  11. 11. % of QHP-eligible consumers with access to various network types1 8 5 14 83 86 74 9 9 12 Broad only Narrowed onlyBoth Consumer choice of network breadth at the point of purchase is declining in some places. There is a nearly three-fold increase in the percentage of consumers who have access to only narrowed networks. Access to both broad and narrowed networks declined for most urban consumers (89% to 74% from 2015-16) but increased for rural consumers (45% to 69%). Consumer access to network types 1 Whether broad, narrowed, or both breadth types were available was determined on a county level, and QHP-eligible consumers residing in county were counted toward given category. KEY: 2014 2015 2016 100% = 39M QHP-eligible consumers 11 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  12. 12. Between 2015 and 2016, median network breadth stayed relatively constant in urban counties, but increased in rural counties. Carriers in markets with higher carrier and provider fragmentation are more likely to offer narrowed networks. Geographic distribution of network composition in 2016 1 Network breadth unavailable due to lack of hospitals in the rating area. None 1% to 25% 25% to 50% 50% to 75% 75% to 99% All KEY: N/A1 % of hospital networks classified as broad by county 11 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  13. 13. Difference in distribution of exchange networks between 2015 and 2016 The largest increases between 2015 and 2016 in the proportion of broad networks were seen in Delaware (50%) and Iowa (31%). The largest decreases in the proportion of broad networks were seen in Texas (-25%) and Utah (-25%). 1 Difference between percentage of broad networks in state in 2015 and 2016. Networks counted at rating area level. 2 Network breadth unavailable due to lack of hospitals in the rating area. Change in the % of hospital networks classified as broad1 -15% or less -15% to 0% 0% to 15% 15% to 30% 30% to 45% 45% to 100% N/A2 KEY: 13 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  14. 14. 2014 post-3R financial performance and network breadth Select 2014 post-3R, post-tax individual market financial metrics across exchange carriers1 QHP-members weighted-average 1 Carrier performance was determined at the NAIC/HIOS state-level entity level. Analysis only includes entities HIOS ID’s associated with on-exchange plans in 2014, with >1K 2014 QHP members. 2 In this analysis, tiered networks are assigned to the ultra-narrow, narrow, or broad category based on the breadth of the first tier. 3 Network breadth for each entity is rolled-up to a state-level (from county) using QHP-eligible population and the network associated with the lowest-price silver plan. Each state-level entity is then associated with their respective breadth category (broad, narrow, ultra-narrow). The financial metrics for all entities in each breadth category are weighted by their 2014 QHP lives, obtained from CMS MLR reports. 4 Risk adjustment does not total to 0 as data reflects only those entities with on-exchange presence in 2014. Negative values indicate payment into the program. In aggregate, risk adjustment for all exchange entities amounted to –1% of premiums. 5 Net risk corridor payments across these carriers amount to -$17M. 6 The ultra-narrow category includes 38 entities (17 with positive margins), 12% of the premiums among exchange entities (post-3R, post-tax margin as percentage of premium ranged from -51% to 15%). 7 The narrow category includes 104 entities (39 with positive margins), 50% of the premiums among exchange entities (post-3R, post-tax margin as percentage of premium ranged from -77% to 17%). 8 The broad category includes 92 entities (24 with positive margins), 38% of the premiums among exchange entities (post-3R, post-tax margin as percentage of premium ranged from -146% to 26%). -2 -7 -8 Narrow7 Ultra-narrow6 Broad8 Weighted-average network breadth2,3 Post-3R post-tax margin, % Risk adjustment, % of premiums4 18 17 13 Reinsurance, % of premiums Risk corridors, % of premiums5 307 346 301 Claims PMPM, $ In 2014, while overall, only 30% of carriers were profitable, exchange carriers1 with narrowed networks 2,3 fared better: of these, 39% were profitable vs. 26% with broad networks3. Exchange carriers with narrowed networks had better margins and lower claims, in aggregate, than those offering broad. Carriers1 with narrowed networks also received less in reinsurance than other carriers did, and may be less affected by the program’s termination in 2017. -6 -3 0 -0.6 0 0.5 14 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  15. 15. Offering and price competitiveness of co-branded and provider- led plans Provider-led carriersCo-branded relationships 1 Access to plan type defined as the co-branded or provider-led plan being available in the given county. 2 Counted at state level. Number of co-branded relationships2 In 2016, the number of co-branded relationships increased 13%, while the net number of provider-led carriers remained relatively flat. Yet, in 2016 only 18% of consumers have access1 to a co-branded plan, compared to 60% who have access to a provider-led plan. Provider-led plans are the lowest-price option for more consumers this year – and, when compared to co-branded plans. 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 % of QHP-eligible with access1: 9% 18% 18% 55% 59% 60% 36 63 71 64 73 74 Number of carriers2 % of QHP-eligible in a market where respective carrier is lowest-price: 28% 26% 24% 18% 23% 31% 15 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  16. 16. 2015 CMS hospital performance metrics and 2016 network breadth Weighted-average scores for all exchange hospital networks by breadth across four domains of total performance score1,2 Clinical process domain score Outcome domain score Patient experience domain score Efficiency domain score 1 Across all hospital networks. N refers to the number of networks and varies across metrics because CMS does not publish all metrics across all hospitals. 2 Scores reflect the weighted average of all scores for given network breadths, weighted by the number of inpatient admissions for each in-network hospital in a given network. KEY: Broad Tiered Narrow Ultra-Narrow 5.95.86.15.9 19.018.919.919.35.9 N=2275 19.2 N=2273 8.88.68.98.7 8.7 N=2281 4.9 3.53.3 4.6 4.3 N=2281 We continue to observe no signifcant difference in CMS hospital performance scores for narrowed vs. broad networks. 16 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform
  17. 17. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES The above findings are based on publicly available data. Other relevant publications can be found at these sites: http://healthcare.mckinsey.com/2015-hospital-networks http://healthcare.mckinsey.com/2014-individual-market-post-3r-financial-performance http://healthcare.mckinsey.com/2016-exchange-market-remains-flux-plan-type-trends Pricing: Individual exchange premiums were obtained from state-based exchange websites and CMS / healthcare.gov public use files. For analyses involving comparison of network premiums, unless otherwise noted, if a network is associated with multiple plans we consider only the lowest-price plan in each metal tier when comparing that network with other networks. Hospitals: All hospital data was obtained, as is, from carrier website provider search tools available to consumers. Hospital network data over 2014–2016 was collected from carrier websites. Our analysis focuses only on acute care facilities that are defined by the American Hospital Association (AHA) as general medical and surgical; surgical; cancer; heart; eye, ear, nose, and throat; orthopedic; or children’s general hospitals. In order to effectively compare hospital inclusion in networks, we also identified each hospital’s unique AHA ID through a combination of geospatial distance matching, approximate string matching, and manual verification. Networks: Network breadth is calculated for each CMS rating area, where available, by taking the number of hospitals that are in-network for the lowest-AV cost sharing network tier (only applicable for Tiered networks) in a given rating area divided by the total number of hospitals that are in the rating area. Network breadth definitions are outlined in the front of the document. Adjustments were made to CMS rating area definitions for AK, ID, MA, and NE to convert their 3-digit zip rating area definitions to a county-based definition. These rating area adjustments are made to be as close as possible to (for MA), or identical to (for AK, ID and NE) the adjustments made in the healthcare.gov exchange database files. In general, counties were assigned to the rating area in which a plurality of the county’s population reside. Financials: All our financial findings are based on publicly available sources. Individual performance and financials were obtained from MLR reports, SHCE filings, DMHC filings, and CMS 2014 3R reports. We analyzed all available data for 2014 carriers with more than 1,000 individual lives. Profitability is based on reported post-tax, post-3R (reinsurance, risk corridor, and risk adjustment) operating margin. Risk adjustment and reinsurance were obtained directly from the CMS September 17, 2015, report titled “Summary Report on Transitional Reinsurance Payments and Permanent Risk Adjustment Transfers for the 2014 Benefit Year.” Risk corridor details were obtained from carrier reports. Carrier-level risk corridor information in the quarterly reports was occasionally found to be outdated with regard to CMS’s most recent risk corridor announcement. We independently calculated to verify and update the amounts at the carrier level. Plan types: Plan types reported were taken directly from exchange websites and Summary of Benefits and Coverage (SBC) documents. Plan type definitions are outlined in the front of the document. 17 SOURCE: McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform

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