The document discusses the statistical design for the 2021 UK Census. It outlines the objectives of running a high-quality 2021 online census, producing integrated outputs from census and administrative data, and making a recommendation for future censuses. Key areas of focus include maximizing online response, understanding hard-to-count groups, using administrative data, and testing new approaches in the 2017 Census Test. The overall goals are to improve timeliness, accuracy, accessibility of outputs while protecting personal data and providing value for money.

1. Statistical Design for the 2021
Census
Garnett Compton, ONS
Garnett.compton@ons.gov.uk
Transforming the Census – to 2021 and beyond, 28-29 June 2016

2. What I’m going to cover . . . .
• What is new and main areas of change
• Planned use of admin data
• Key areas of focus in the Census Test iteration

3. Census Transformation Programme –
Objectives
• Run a high quality 2021 online census data collection
operation
• Produce integrated outputs from census,
administrative and survey data
• Make a recommendation about the future nature of the
census and methods for production of population statistics
beyond 2021
• Protect, and be seen to protect, confidential personal data
• Maximise the potential for wider benefits to ONS
• Provide value for money
• Maximise benefits from Census for all stakeholders (local
and central government, public, private and voluntary
sectors)
3

4. The 2021 Quality objectives*
Overall
response
Minimum
response
Variability
within LAs
Online
response
Online
experience
Use of
admin
data
High quality
operation
Integrated
outputs
* For Programme objectives 1 and 2

5. The 2021 Quality objectives*
Overall
response
Minimum
response
Variability
within LAs
Online
response
Online
experience
Use of
admin
data
High quality
operation
Timely
User
needs
Accuracy
Early
benefits
User
confidence
Accessible
Integrated
outputs
* For Programme objectives 1 and 2

6. Developing the 2021 Census Design
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate

7. Developing the 2021 Census Design
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Drivers for change
• Lessons learned from 2011
• User needs
• Changes in society and technology
• Improvements in administrative data sources
• Continue to deliver value for money
Main areas of change
• Online first
• Understanding areas/populations of hard to count
and digital inclusion
• Data Processing and outputs
• Use of administrative , and other, data sources

8. 2021 Census - Deliver
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Areas for development
• Maximise online response
• Maximise self-response
• Integrated communications
Potential use of administrative data
• Prioritising delivery mechanisms
• Informing Address Register
2017 Iteration - key questions
• Understanding characteristics of responders by
contact method
• Different invitation letters;
• Paper questionnaire or invitation letter first?

9. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Envelope design
• Clear purpose
• Stands out from
other mail

10. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Invitation to complete
• Clear purpose
• Stands out from other
mail
• Clear instructions
about getting online

11. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Invitation to complete
• Clear instructions about getting
online

12. 2021 Census – Collect
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Areas for development
• Design of online questionnaire to maximise quality
and ease of use
• Compatibility between online Q and paper Q
• Self coding, validation rules
• Public support and assisted digital
2017 Iteration - key questions
• Impact on overall response of sexual identity
question
• User testing on layouts/device usage and
cognitive testing
• Understanding opportunities and constraints
between online and paper

13. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Example –
ethnic group
question
mock-up

14. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Example –
ethnic group
question
mock-up

15. 2021 Census – for example
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Example –
ethnic group
question
mock-up

16. 2021 Census – Follow-up
16
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Areas for development
• Use of hand-held devices to support follow-up
• Timing and resource requirements
• Responsive design
• Use of hand-held devices for CCS data
collection
Potential use of administrative data
• Improved targeting of initial resources (e.g. Hard
to count)
• Reducing wastage in non-response follow-up
(e.g. vacant and second homes)
2017 Iteration - key questions
• Effect of reminder letters
• Timing of follow-up activities
• Use of hand-held devices to support follow-up

17. 2021 Census – for example
17
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Fieldwork
mgmt
tool

18. 2021 Census – for example
18
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate

19. 2021 Census – Processing and Analysis
19
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Areas for development
• Reduce paper capture and processing times
• Improved matching methods
• Visualising quality assurance
• Output area maintenance
Potential use of administrative data
• Use in estimation, imputation and quality
assurance and outputs
2017 Iteration - key questions
• Understanding potential for assessing quality early
• Assessing how much paper processing required
• Translating user needs on content into outputs

20. 2021 Census – Dissemination
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Areas for development
• Release outputs earlier
• Improved quality
• More flexible generation of outputs
• Integrated outputs
Potential use of administrative data
• Merge with Census returns to enhance outputs
2017 Iteration - key questions
• User research on ways of accessing data
• Prototype dissemination systems for standard
outputs
• Use of synthetic data for improved microdata
products

21. The 2021 Quality objectives
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Overall
response
Minimum
response
Variability
within LAs
Online
response
Online
experience
User of
admin data
High quality
operation
Timely
User needs
Accuracy
Early
benefits
User
confidence
Accessible
Integrated
outputs

22. The 2021 Quality objectives
Deliver
Collect
Follow-up
Process
Analyse
Disseminate
Overall
response
Minimum
response
Variability
within LAs
Online
response
Online
experience
User of
admin data
High quality
operation
Timely
User needs
Accuracy
Early
benefits
User
confidence
Accessible
Integrated
outputs

23. Summary
• Opportunities
• And, lots of challenges
• Testing/development underway – progress now
very real
• Every stage has an impact on success!
• Plenty of detail to explore over the next two days

24. QUESTIONS?????

25. REFERENCE MATERIAL

26. CTP – Programme and Quality Objectives
Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
1. To produce statistics of the right quality and
timeliness to meet user needs via a high quality
2021 Census data collection operation
1.1 Maximise overall response
1.2 Achieve sufficient response in all Local
Authorities
1.3 Minimise variability in response rates within
Local Authorities
1.4 Maximise online response and maximise data
quality gains from online collection (but not at the
expense of overall response rates)
1.5 Offer a high quality, easily accessible online
census and minimise digital exclusion
1.6 Make best use of administrative data in the
planning and conduct of the census operation (e.g.
address register and field management)
28 June 2016

27. CTP – Programme and Quality Objectives
Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
2. Produce integrated outputs from census,
administrative and survey data
2.1 2021 Outputs delivered in a timely manner
2.2 Maximise accuracy of 2021 national population estimates
2.3 Maximise accuracy of 2021 Local Authority population
estimates
2.4 Priority user needs met from 2021 Census
2.5 User confidence in 2021 Census results
2.6 More frequent statistics after 2021 Census
2.7 Deliver early benefits
2.8 Make best use of administrative data in producing integrated
census outputs, including statistical processing, quality
assurance and the creation of new outputs
2.9 Drive acquisition of new administrative sources for research
and enhanced outputs, covering population estimates, household
and person characteristics
2.10 Ensure widest possible awareness and use of census
outputs
2.11 Define and deliver future systems for disseminating
statistical outputs to optimise the accessibility of census outputs28 June 2016

28. Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
3. Make a recommendation by 2023 about
the future nature of the census and
methods for production of population
statistics beyond 2021
3.1 Develop future potential designs for the population statistics
system
3.2 Build evaluation into the 2021 Census and tests, minimising
any circularity from using administrative data in 2021 Census
Outputs
3.3 Define outputs to be produced from administrative data and
quality requirements and measure annual progress towards
meeting them
3.4 Robust recommendation made about the future of the census
and population statistics beyond 2021 with sufficient evidence
28 June 2016
CTP – Programme and Quality Objectives

29. Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
4. Protect, and be seen to protect,
confidential personal data
4.1 Protect and be seen to protect personal data
4.2 Protect and be seen to protect privacy
Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
5. Maximise the potential for wider benefits
to ONS and the statistical system from the
investment in the census
5.1 Maximise wider benefits to ONS in
- address frame development
- survey management services
- online data collection services
- administrative data processing services
- output dissemination services
28 June 2016
CTP – Programme and Quality Objectives

30. Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
6. Provide value for money
6.1 High benefit to cost ratio
6.2 Cost effective compared to other census-taking
6.3 Efficient procurement and resourcing decisions
Programme Objectives CTP Quality Objectives
7. Maximise benefits from Census for all
stakeholders (local and central
Government, public, private and voluntary
sectors)
7.1 Publish small areas, multivariate data identified through topic
consultation to inform decision making and support democratic
debate
7.2 Make results available in a range of easy to use formats,
according to user needs
7.3 Proactively communicate the availability of census statistics
to existing and to new users
28 June 2016
CTP – Programme and Quality Objectives