Project kick-off meeting Beijing - April 2016

1. Professor Cecilia Wong 黄燕玲教授
Director of Centre for Urban Policy Studies
School of Environment, Education & Development
The University of Manchester
英國曼徹斯特大學都市政策研究中心主任

2. Team members & organisation restructuring
 September 2016, cities@manchester will become the
Manchester Urban Institute to be one of the top
priority research areas of University of Manchester
 Key team members:
Cecilia Wong, Mark Baker, Adam Barker, Richard
Kingston, Nuno Pinto, Miao Qiao, and Andreas Schulze-
Baing.

3. Introduction
Research approaches: examples of our
previous projects
Key research tasks of UoM
Q&A

4. Key research tasks of UoM

5. Towards a more human-centred and environmentally
sustainable pathway of urban development
National Development and Reform Council
National New Urbanisation Plan (March 2014)

6. WP1: Conceptualisation consolidation &
theoretical development
 Clarifying the meaning and interpretation of Chinese policy concepts of
'eco-urbanisation' and 'ecological civilisation’
 Map the meaning into the terminologies adopted in western literature;
Task: our key underpinning concept is to identify the key
variables and their interactive effects of a ‘well-being’ oriented
sustainable future in China
Approach: Systematic review of literature (as widely used by
DFID)
Key Persons: Adam Barker, Andreas Schulze Baing, Miao Qiao &
Cecilia Wong

7. WP2: Transformation pathways towards SD
 Different policy approaches and institutional frameworks for urban eco-
environmental transformation
 Analysis of cultural and institutional structures in China and the UK to
identify key factors and barriers affecting the transition/reform towards
urban SD
 Mapping the extent and nature of the urban eco-environmental planning
networks, power structures, policy coordination and policy working in
BTHMR
Task: map the different approaches and institutional frameworks
adopted internationally in promoting sustainable transition
pathways, especially China & UK
Approach: policy review and documentary analysis, supplemented
by elite interviews in UK and China
Key persons: Mark Baker, Miao Qiao & Andreas Schulze-Baing

8. WP3: Hybrid life cycle analysis of interactive
effects
 finalise research parameters such as urban size, spatial scale, study period etc.
 review of existing metrics, indices and indicators developed by supra-national organisations,
national states, academic community
 transferability to the city and community level and relevance for the integrated modelling
exercise
Tasks: Spatial definition of urban and metropolitan hinterland; linking individual
and area data; identification and development of indicators framework; and
matrix and composite index analysis
Approach: a web-based GIS tool to present and share the evolving data generated
by the WP for both teams to motely discuss, edit and finalise spatial definitions;
builds on previous approaches developed by Wong on indicators and Kingston on
web-based decision support tools (e.g. HNM, GRaBS, SMARTiP, ClimateJust)
Key Persons: Richard Kingston, Cecilia Wong, Nuno Pinto, & Andreas Schulze
Baing

9. WP4: Modelling the efficiency of urban ecology,
environment and resource utilisation
 Integrated modelling package: multiscale modelling of polycentric
urban systems; using cellular automata and agent-based models
(ABM); combining form and function
Tasks: dynamic modelling approaches
Approach: with full incorporation of accessibility models (land-
use/transport interactions models); with optimization-based calibration
to deal with very high complexity; incorporating the notion of transition
potential, can include any driver that can include different types of
indicators/measures/domains as decision variables
Key persons: Nuno Pinto, Andreas Schulze Baing & Cecilia Wong

10. WP5: Development of a strategic monitoring
framework
 the choice of robust indicators, relevant metrics and analytical methods for
monitoring the urban ecological-environmental performance of urban
development and the development of the strategic monitoring framework
for effective policy coordination
 Views of urban planners, government officials, businesses, and local
community members in the BTHMR on eco-urbanisation
Tasks: linking qualitative contextual and attitudinal information with
quantitative indicators and research dissemination via user friendly
visualisation tools
Approach: in-depth interviews, key stakeholders workshops, and using web-
based toolkits to disseminate the modelled outcomes and selected indicator
sets
Key Persons: Cecilia Wong, Richard Kingston, Mark Baker & Miao Qiao

11. Examples of our previous projects

12. WP1: Conceptual Challenges: 概念上的挑战
Openness of the concepts and their complex
interactions
 conceptual complexity of different key dimensions: open
concepts
 e.g. Well-being and Productivity; social exclusion and
economic growth - New York and London
 Chinese policy concepts and western academic literature:
loss in translation

13. Conceptual Challenges
Dynamic relationship between urban change and
external global forces
 pervasive forces of globalisation act as extra macro agents to
accelerate the restructuring process of our complex urban
system
 stimulated local actors to formulate their own strategies
 there are winners and losers and results in spatial inequality
of development
 Urban change and development is due to the interaction of
internal and external factors
 both the process of change and the state of development

14. 14

15.  conceptual complexity 概念上的复杂性:
multiple objectives & interlocking activities 多目标及连锁的活动
explicit tensions and trade offs 造成紧张关系和权衡取舍
 horizontal interactions 横向的互动:
policy delivery is reliant upon the actions of a plurality of actors
and agencies across different policy sectors 政策落实有有赖于不同
政策领域的多个动者和机构的行动
 vertical interactions 纵向的互动:
coordinating role of higher level governments and the higher
plans + local discretion over the interpretation of such policy
guidance 上级政府和较高层面规划的协调作用+ 地方政策指导解释的
自由裁量权

16. WP2: International diffusion of ideas

17. UN Habitat III

18. Spatial Plans in Practice (SPiP) Study
Funded by the UK Central Government: UK Department for
Communities & Local Government (CLG)
Assess progress and support local planning authorities (LPAs) in the preparation of
local development plans
Assess how LPAs and their partners are changing the way they work in response to
the new system
Provide the government with the opportunity to evaluate the articulation of
national planning policies in local plans
Help develop an understanding of how plan-making influences the delivery of
sustainable development outcomes in the longer term

19. SPiP: Methodology
 Literature Review and Policy Analysis of cross cutting topics (integrated
spatial planning, culture change and effective stakeholder
involvement)
 Strategic Survey of senior planning officers at all LPAs at regular
intervals through the project
 Interviews with senior planners, politicians, key stakeholders
 Thematic studies of key topics – e.g. stakeholder involvement;
infrastructure delivery
 Longitudinal Case Studies following progress in 24 LDFs over the life of
the project
 Workshops to explore emerging issues, findings and possible solutions
with planners and other stakeholders

20. WP3: UN State of the World’s
Cities

22. Modelling the efficiency of
urban ecology, environment
and resource utilisation

23. Spatial dynamics and spatial units of analysis
Spatial dynamics and definition of Cities
 In the developing world: an outward expansion far beyond formal
administrative boundaries, largely propelled by the use of the automobile
and land speculation. ….. that urban land cover grew, on average, more
than double the growth of the urban population (UN Habitat, 2012: 28)
 In the western world, there has been continuing spatial decentralisation
and a concurrent trend of disintegration between residential and
employment locations over the last few decades
 administrative areas - their boundaries may distort the spatial dynamics
operating between a city and its wider spatial context
 The use of functional definition of cities, that is, to take into account of
city-regions – the urban area and its wider hinterland areas

24. 1) Overbounded 2) Underbounded
Ward deprivation values
4) One high, three low values3) Four medium values 5) Two medium, two low values
District boundary
Ward boundary
Built-up area
Area of deprivation
Modifiable Areal Unit Problems:
1. The size and shape of the districts into which that data is
grouped
2. The methods with which point-based data is aggregated
into areal units (e.g. what weighting is used?)
3. The effects of the
area-based attributes
(with uncertainty of
the actual area) on
individual behaviours
or outcomes

25. 12
0
Outcomes
0
Assets
18-9
-6
Middlesbrough
Newcastle
Birmingham
Inner London
Leeds
Manchester
Cleveland
S. Yorks
West Yorkshire
Greater London
Greater Manchester
Merseyside
Tyne & Wear
West Midlands

26. WP3: Methodological Challenges 方法上的挑战
Data availability and quality
 How to get accurate data at the city level across the study
area?
 Will robustness and reliability of different components vary?
 Is there any systematic measurement error against the value
computed for cities in any particular regions?

27.  Static vs dynamic (time and space)
静态 vs 动态(时间和空间的连通性）
 Constrains (administrative boundary,
timeframe, spatial scale, data availability)
限制（行政区域界线、期限、空间规模、可用
的数据）
 Procedural and descriptive vs
effectiveness and impact
程序和描述性的监控vs效应和影响性的监控
 Outputs vs outcomes
产出 vs 成果(预期和非预期的效应)
Methodological Challenges 方法上的挑战

28. • contextual indicators: to highlight the current
disparities, gaps and development potential of
different areas concerned
• output indicators: both core and local output
indicators are used to measure a series of
quantifiable physical outputs
• outcome indicators: the impacts of policies on
achieving the spatial planning objectives of
sustainable development and on the wider
process of socio-economic change
A Framework of Indicators

29. Relationship between outputs & outcomes: the time
dimension 产出与成果: 时间维度

30. Relationship between outputs & outcomes: the
spatial mediation effects 产出与成果: 空间的调解

31. Collaborative mapping tools

32. WP4: Modelling the efficiency of urban ecology,
environment and resource utilisation

33. Planning issues are wicked (Rittel and Webber, 1973)
and ill-structured problems (Herbert Simon, 1979)!!
规划的问题是与其“刁钻和结构不良”的本质有关
 Whether an evidence-based policy regime and indicators can
handle the challenges?
以证据为基础的政策监控和量化指标制度是否可以应付这些挑战？
 Bounded rationality and flexible problem-solving process
and satisficing strategy
由于理性的有限和解决问题过程的灵活性要求，因此只能采取满
意战略
WP5: Development of a strategic monitoring
framework

34. 34
How to frame problems, set goals, or develop new
alternatives to simplify problem formulation?
 The emerging conception provides continual feedback that additional
considerations that need to be taken into account – call for flexible
problem-solving process
 The task of agenda setting is of utmost importance because both
individual human beings and human institutions have limited
capacities
 Adopt the satisficing strategy by taking into account of the
limitation of human rationality rather than the “optimal” solution
 Satisficing occurs in consensus building when the group looks
towards a solution everyone can agree on even if it may not be the best

35. Evidence-based policy making is the integration of
experience, judgement and expertise with the best
available external evidence
基于证据的政策制定是把‘外部证据’和 经验、
判断、专业知识相结合的一种综合系统方法
35
Judgement
判断
Experience
经验
Values
价值
Resources
资源
Evidence
证据

36. 36
Conceptualisation of Spatial Planning Outcomes

37. Some policy & research thinking
 Planning-as-learning: ‘strategic spatial plans
must be evaluated, not primarily in the light
of their material outcomes, but for how they
improve the understanding of decision
makers of the present and future problems
they face’ (Faludi, 2000)
规划是“学习的过程”：“必须不断的对战
略空间规划进行实施评价，不仅仅是评价它
在物质空间上实施效果，同时也要评价规划
对决策者的影响，改善决策者对当前和未来
问题的理解。”(Faludi, 2000)

38. Proposed monitoring strategy “实施监控战
略”
 A gradual, incremental approach
循序渐进的方法
 A targeted and focused spatial approach: in terms of the
number of indicators and the spatial area
以空间为主的监控方法：一定数量的定量指标和空间区域
 A robust measures and outcome driven
弹性的度量，结果导向型
 Integrate quantitative indicators with reflexive knowledge
“定量指标”和“知识反思”相结合
 Analytical and communicative framework
是一个“分析的”、“交流的”框架
 A progressive, future orientated monitoring approach
积极的、未来为导向的实施监控方法

39. SPiP: making a difference
Does the new system help achieve the implementation of national, regional
and local objectives and strategies, and a contribution to the overarching
goal of sustainable development?
The effectiveness of spatial planning requires:
a shared vision for the area
a locally grounded spatial development strategy
policies which deliver the strategy and recognise the
consequences of / for other sectors and agencies
Integration = better informed plans + efficiency savings
Evidence is needed in order to understand:
the circumstances and issues in an area
what is wanted for the future
what is feasible and acceptable
how desired changes can be delivered

40. SPiP: Making a difference
Does the new system help achieve the implementation of national, regional
and local objectives and strategies, and a contribution to the overarching
goal of sustainable development?
In achieving effective collaboration, stakeholders cited the culture and
attitude of the LA as fundamental:
getting the commitment of senior managers and politicians
good leadership at the Chief Officer and Head of LDF team
developing new project management skills
developing good relationships with other agencies
Important role for government in reinforcing this message across the public
sector that spatial plans are concerned with place shaping and not just
narrow land use planning

41. Visualisation with GIS and web-based platform
 the interplay between policy needs and spatial contexts
via GIS overlay mapping of policies and programmes
 Provide clear monitoring of vertical spatial
coordination and horizontal policy sector coordination
 identifying patterns of spatial synergies and conflicts
arising from existing government policies and
programmes
 made available online as open-source materials
 empowering others to advocate their own analysis to
engage in policy debate and argumentation – a
collective way of ‘seeing’

42. HS2 and landscape designation HS2 and habitat fragmentation

43. Relative water stress level and high
household growth projections
Flood risk and high household
growth projections

44. Towards a Progressive and Integrative
Monitoring Framework
Towards a Collaborative, Analytical and
Communicative Framework for the city region
to express their vision in the policy
formulation process.
A culture shift from a single-loop model to a
double-loop model of monitoring
给城市提供一个表达它的政策形成愿景的“合
作的、分析的、交流的框架”。实施监控必
须从“单次反馈模式”转变成“多次反馈模
式”。

45. Thank you & Questions!