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Cecilia Wong


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Project kick-off meeting
Beijing - April 2016

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Cecilia Wong

  1. 1. Professor Cecilia Wong 黄燕玲教授 Director of Centre for Urban Policy Studies School of Environment, Education & Development The University of Manchester 英國曼徹斯特大學都市政策研究中心主任
  2. 2. Team members & organisation restructuring  September 2016, cities@manchester will become the Manchester Urban Institute to be one of the top priority research areas of University of Manchester  Key team members: Cecilia Wong, Mark Baker, Adam Barker, Richard Kingston, Nuno Pinto, Miao Qiao, and Andreas Schulze- Baing.
  3. 3. Introduction Research approaches: examples of our previous projects Key research tasks of UoM Q&A
  4. 4. Key research tasks of UoM
  5. 5. Towards a more human-centred and environmentally sustainable pathway of urban development National Development and Reform Council National New Urbanisation Plan (March 2014)
  6. 6. WP1: Conceptualisation consolidation & theoretical development  Clarifying the meaning and interpretation of Chinese policy concepts of 'eco-urbanisation' and 'ecological civilisation’  Map the meaning into the terminologies adopted in western literature; Task: our key underpinning concept is to identify the key variables and their interactive effects of a ‘well-being’ oriented sustainable future in China Approach: Systematic review of literature (as widely used by DFID) Key Persons: Adam Barker, Andreas Schulze Baing, Miao Qiao & Cecilia Wong
  7. 7. WP2: Transformation pathways towards SD  Different policy approaches and institutional frameworks for urban eco- environmental transformation  Analysis of cultural and institutional structures in China and the UK to identify key factors and barriers affecting the transition/reform towards urban SD  Mapping the extent and nature of the urban eco-environmental planning networks, power structures, policy coordination and policy working in BTHMR Task: map the different approaches and institutional frameworks adopted internationally in promoting sustainable transition pathways, especially China & UK Approach: policy review and documentary analysis, supplemented by elite interviews in UK and China Key persons: Mark Baker, Miao Qiao & Andreas Schulze-Baing
  8. 8. WP3: Hybrid life cycle analysis of interactive effects  finalise research parameters such as urban size, spatial scale, study period etc.  review of existing metrics, indices and indicators developed by supra-national organisations, national states, academic community  transferability to the city and community level and relevance for the integrated modelling exercise Tasks: Spatial definition of urban and metropolitan hinterland; linking individual and area data; identification and development of indicators framework; and matrix and composite index analysis Approach: a web-based GIS tool to present and share the evolving data generated by the WP for both teams to motely discuss, edit and finalise spatial definitions; builds on previous approaches developed by Wong on indicators and Kingston on web-based decision support tools (e.g. HNM, GRaBS, SMARTiP, ClimateJust) Key Persons: Richard Kingston, Cecilia Wong, Nuno Pinto, & Andreas Schulze Baing
  9. 9. WP4: Modelling the efficiency of urban ecology, environment and resource utilisation  Integrated modelling package: multiscale modelling of polycentric urban systems; using cellular automata and agent-based models (ABM); combining form and function Tasks: dynamic modelling approaches Approach: with full incorporation of accessibility models (land- use/transport interactions models); with optimization-based calibration to deal with very high complexity; incorporating the notion of transition potential, can include any driver that can include different types of indicators/measures/domains as decision variables Key persons: Nuno Pinto, Andreas Schulze Baing & Cecilia Wong
  10. 10. WP5: Development of a strategic monitoring framework  the choice of robust indicators, relevant metrics and analytical methods for monitoring the urban ecological-environmental performance of urban development and the development of the strategic monitoring framework for effective policy coordination  Views of urban planners, government officials, businesses, and local community members in the BTHMR on eco-urbanisation Tasks: linking qualitative contextual and attitudinal information with quantitative indicators and research dissemination via user friendly visualisation tools Approach: in-depth interviews, key stakeholders workshops, and using web- based toolkits to disseminate the modelled outcomes and selected indicator sets Key Persons: Cecilia Wong, Richard Kingston, Mark Baker & Miao Qiao
  11. 11. Examples of our previous projects
  12. 12. WP1: Conceptual Challenges: 概念上的挑战 Openness of the concepts and their complex interactions  conceptual complexity of different key dimensions: open concepts  e.g. Well-being and Productivity; social exclusion and economic growth - New York and London  Chinese policy concepts and western academic literature: loss in translation
  13. 13. Conceptual Challenges Dynamic relationship between urban change and external global forces  pervasive forces of globalisation act as extra macro agents to accelerate the restructuring process of our complex urban system  stimulated local actors to formulate their own strategies  there are winners and losers and results in spatial inequality of development  Urban change and development is due to the interaction of internal and external factors  both the process of change and the state of development
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15.  conceptual complexity 概念上的复杂性: multiple objectives & interlocking activities 多目标及连锁的活动 explicit tensions and trade offs 造成紧张关系和权衡取舍  horizontal interactions 横向的互动: policy delivery is reliant upon the actions of a plurality of actors and agencies across different policy sectors 政策落实有有赖于不同 政策领域的多个动者和机构的行动  vertical interactions 纵向的互动: coordinating role of higher level governments and the higher plans + local discretion over the interpretation of such policy guidance 上级政府和较高层面规划的协调作用+ 地方政策指导解释的 自由裁量权
  16. 16. WP2: International diffusion of ideas
  17. 17. UN Habitat III
  18. 18. Spatial Plans in Practice (SPiP) Study Funded by the UK Central Government: UK Department for Communities & Local Government (CLG) Assess progress and support local planning authorities (LPAs) in the preparation of local development plans Assess how LPAs and their partners are changing the way they work in response to the new system Provide the government with the opportunity to evaluate the articulation of national planning policies in local plans Help develop an understanding of how plan-making influences the delivery of sustainable development outcomes in the longer term
  19. 19. SPiP: Methodology  Literature Review and Policy Analysis of cross cutting topics (integrated spatial planning, culture change and effective stakeholder involvement)  Strategic Survey of senior planning officers at all LPAs at regular intervals through the project  Interviews with senior planners, politicians, key stakeholders  Thematic studies of key topics – e.g. stakeholder involvement; infrastructure delivery  Longitudinal Case Studies following progress in 24 LDFs over the life of the project  Workshops to explore emerging issues, findings and possible solutions with planners and other stakeholders
  20. 20. WP3: UN State of the World’s Cities
  21. 21. Modelling the efficiency of urban ecology, environment and resource utilisation
  22. 22. Spatial dynamics and spatial units of analysis Spatial dynamics and definition of Cities  In the developing world: an outward expansion far beyond formal administrative boundaries, largely propelled by the use of the automobile and land speculation. ….. that urban land cover grew, on average, more than double the growth of the urban population (UN Habitat, 2012: 28)  In the western world, there has been continuing spatial decentralisation and a concurrent trend of disintegration between residential and employment locations over the last few decades  administrative areas - their boundaries may distort the spatial dynamics operating between a city and its wider spatial context  The use of functional definition of cities, that is, to take into account of city-regions – the urban area and its wider hinterland areas
  23. 23. 1) Overbounded 2) Underbounded Ward deprivation values 4) One high, three low values3) Four medium values 5) Two medium, two low values District boundary Ward boundary Built-up area Area of deprivation Modifiable Areal Unit Problems: 1. The size and shape of the districts into which that data is grouped 2. The methods with which point-based data is aggregated into areal units (e.g. what weighting is used?) 3. The effects of the area-based attributes (with uncertainty of the actual area) on individual behaviours or outcomes
  24. 24. 12 0 Outcomes 0 Assets 18-9 -6 Middlesbrough Newcastle Birmingham Inner London Leeds Manchester Cleveland S. Yorks West Yorkshire Greater London Greater Manchester Merseyside Tyne & Wear West Midlands
  25. 25. WP3: Methodological Challenges 方法上的挑战 Data availability and quality  How to get accurate data at the city level across the study area?  Will robustness and reliability of different components vary?  Is there any systematic measurement error against the value computed for cities in any particular regions?
  26. 26.  Static vs dynamic (time and space) 静态 vs 动态(时间和空间的连通性)  Constrains (administrative boundary, timeframe, spatial scale, data availability) 限制(行政区域界线、期限、空间规模、可用 的数据)  Procedural and descriptive vs effectiveness and impact 程序和描述性的监控vs效应和影响性的监控  Outputs vs outcomes 产出 vs 成果(预期和非预期的效应) Methodological Challenges 方法上的挑战
  27. 27. • contextual indicators: to highlight the current disparities, gaps and development potential of different areas concerned • output indicators: both core and local output indicators are used to measure a series of quantifiable physical outputs • outcome indicators: the impacts of policies on achieving the spatial planning objectives of sustainable development and on the wider process of socio-economic change A Framework of Indicators
  28. 28. Relationship between outputs & outcomes: the time dimension 产出与成果: 时间维度
  29. 29. Relationship between outputs & outcomes: the spatial mediation effects 产出与成果: 空间的调解
  30. 30. Collaborative mapping tools
  31. 31. WP4: Modelling the efficiency of urban ecology, environment and resource utilisation
  32. 32. Planning issues are wicked (Rittel and Webber, 1973) and ill-structured problems (Herbert Simon, 1979)!! 规划的问题是与其“刁钻和结构不良”的本质有关  Whether an evidence-based policy regime and indicators can handle the challenges? 以证据为基础的政策监控和量化指标制度是否可以应付这些挑战?  Bounded rationality and flexible problem-solving process and satisficing strategy 由于理性的有限和解决问题过程的灵活性要求,因此只能采取满 意战略 WP5: Development of a strategic monitoring framework
  33. 33. 34 How to frame problems, set goals, or develop new alternatives to simplify problem formulation?  The emerging conception provides continual feedback that additional considerations that need to be taken into account – call for flexible problem-solving process  The task of agenda setting is of utmost importance because both individual human beings and human institutions have limited capacities  Adopt the satisficing strategy by taking into account of the limitation of human rationality rather than the “optimal” solution  Satisficing occurs in consensus building when the group looks towards a solution everyone can agree on even if it may not be the best
  34. 34. Evidence-based policy making is the integration of experience, judgement and expertise with the best available external evidence 基于证据的政策制定是把‘外部证据’和 经验、 判断、专业知识相结合的一种综合系统方法 35 Judgement 判断 Experience 经验 Values 价值 Resources 资源 Evidence 证据
  35. 35. 36 Conceptualisation of Spatial Planning Outcomes
  36. 36. Some policy & research thinking  Planning-as-learning: ‘strategic spatial plans must be evaluated, not primarily in the light of their material outcomes, but for how they improve the understanding of decision makers of the present and future problems they face’ (Faludi, 2000) 规划是“学习的过程”:“必须不断的对战 略空间规划进行实施评价,不仅仅是评价它 在物质空间上实施效果,同时也要评价规划 对决策者的影响,改善决策者对当前和未来 问题的理解。”(Faludi, 2000)
  37. 37. Proposed monitoring strategy “实施监控战 略”  A gradual, incremental approach 循序渐进的方法  A targeted and focused spatial approach: in terms of the number of indicators and the spatial area 以空间为主的监控方法:一定数量的定量指标和空间区域  A robust measures and outcome driven 弹性的度量,结果导向型  Integrate quantitative indicators with reflexive knowledge “定量指标”和“知识反思”相结合  Analytical and communicative framework 是一个“分析的”、“交流的”框架  A progressive, future orientated monitoring approach 积极的、未来为导向的实施监控方法
  38. 38. SPiP: making a difference Does the new system help achieve the implementation of national, regional and local objectives and strategies, and a contribution to the overarching goal of sustainable development? The effectiveness of spatial planning requires: a shared vision for the area a locally grounded spatial development strategy policies which deliver the strategy and recognise the consequences of / for other sectors and agencies Integration = better informed plans + efficiency savings Evidence is needed in order to understand: the circumstances and issues in an area what is wanted for the future what is feasible and acceptable how desired changes can be delivered
  39. 39. SPiP: Making a difference Does the new system help achieve the implementation of national, regional and local objectives and strategies, and a contribution to the overarching goal of sustainable development? In achieving effective collaboration, stakeholders cited the culture and attitude of the LA as fundamental: getting the commitment of senior managers and politicians good leadership at the Chief Officer and Head of LDF team developing new project management skills developing good relationships with other agencies Important role for government in reinforcing this message across the public sector that spatial plans are concerned with place shaping and not just narrow land use planning
  40. 40. Visualisation with GIS and web-based platform  the interplay between policy needs and spatial contexts via GIS overlay mapping of policies and programmes  Provide clear monitoring of vertical spatial coordination and horizontal policy sector coordination  identifying patterns of spatial synergies and conflicts arising from existing government policies and programmes  made available online as open-source materials  empowering others to advocate their own analysis to engage in policy debate and argumentation – a collective way of ‘seeing’
  41. 41. HS2 and landscape designation HS2 and habitat fragmentation
  42. 42. Relative water stress level and high household growth projections Flood risk and high household growth projections
  43. 43. Towards a Progressive and Integrative Monitoring Framework Towards a Collaborative, Analytical and Communicative Framework for the city region to express their vision in the policy formulation process. A culture shift from a single-loop model to a double-loop model of monitoring 给城市提供一个表达它的政策形成愿景的“合 作的、分析的、交流的框架”。实施监控必 须从“单次反馈模式”转变成“多次反馈模 式”。
  44. 44. Thank you & Questions!