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The Postulate of Human Ecology
by Ernst-Nikolaus Satvanyi
1
Human Ecology - Definition
โ€ข โ€œHuman ecology is an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary study of the relationship between humans and
their natural, social, and built environments. The philosophy and study of human ecology has a diffuse
history with advancements in geography, sociology, psychology, anthropology, zoology, epidemiology, public
health, home economics, and natural ecology, among others.โ€
โ€ข โ€œThe term "human ecology" was published in 1907 in Ellen Swallow Richards work "Sanitation in Daily Life",
defined there as "the study of the surroundings of human beings in the effects they produce on the lives of
men". Richard's use of the term recognized humans as part of rather than separate from nature. The term
made its first formal appearance in the field of sociology in the 1921 book โ€œIntroduction to the Science of
Sociology", published by Robert E. Park and Ernest W. Burgess (also from the sociology department at the
University of Chicago). Their student, Roderick D. McKenzie helped solidify human ecology as a sub-
discipline within the Chicago school. These authors emphasized the difference between human ecology and
ecology in general by highlighting cultural evolution in human societies.โ€
โ€ข Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_ecology
2
The Postulate of Human Ecology - Definition
โ€ข Definition: On a limited area of the Earth, with limited natural resources, under certain climatic conditions,
only a limited number of people with a certain behavior can live, - defined by culture, mentality, technology,
- to a certain standard of living, and with a certain environmental quality.
โ€ข Own Publications:
โ€ข - โ€žGlaube und Lebenโ€œ, Nr. 36/1991
โ€ข - โ€žNeue Zรผricher Zeitungโ€œ, Nr. 266/November 12, 2005
โ€ข - โ€žWirtschaftswocheโ€œ, Nr. 26/June 23, 2008
โ€ข WEB Source: http://satvanyi.50webs.com/soekolog.html
3
Quotations about population through the ages (I)
โ€ข Stasinos, poet (lived 776 โ€“ 580 BC) - โ€œThere was a time when the countless tribes of men, though
wide-dispersed, oppressed the surface of the deep-bosomed Earth, and Zeus saw it and had pity
and in his wise heart resolved to relieve the all-nurturing Earth of men by causing the great
struggle of the Ilian war, that the load of death might empty the world. And so the heroes were
slain in Troy, and the plan of Zeus came to pass.โ€
โ€ข Confucius, philosopher (lived 551 โ€“ 479 BC) - โ€œExcessive (population) growth may reduce output
per worker, repress levels of living for the masses and engender strife.โ€
โ€ข Aristotle, philosopher (lived 384 โ€“ 322 BC) - โ€œOne would have thought that it was even more
necessary to limit population than propertyโ€ฆThe neglect of this subject, which in existing states is
so common, is a never-failing cause of poverty among the citizens; and poverty is the parent of
both revolution and crime.โ€
โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations
4
Quotations about population through the ages (II)
โ€ข Thomas Malthus, clergyman and scholar (lived 1766 โ€“ 1832) - โ€œPopulation, when unchecked, increases in a
geometrical ratio. Subsistence on the other hand increases only in an arithmetical ratio.โ€
โ€ข Ralph Waldo Emerson, writer (lived 1803 โ€“ 1882) - โ€œIf government knew how, I should like to see it check โ€”
not multiply โ€” the population.โ€
โ€ข Bertrand Russell, philosopher (lived 1872 โ€“ 1970) - โ€œThe one real remedy is birth control โ€” that is getting
the people of the world to limit themselves to those numbers which they can keep upon their own soil.โ€
โ€ข Albert Einstein, physicist (lived 1879 โ€“ 1955) - โ€œOverpopulation in various countries has become a serious
threat to the health of people and a grave obstacle to any attempt to organize peace on this planet.โ€
โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations
5
Quotations about population through the ages (III)
โ€ข James Lovelock, scientist and environmentalist (born 1919) - โ€œThose who fail to see that population growth
and climate change are two sides of the same coin are either ignorant or hiding from the truth. These two
huge environmental problems are inseparable and to discuss one while ignoring the other is irrational.โ€
โ€ข Gore Vidal, writer (lived 1925 โ€“ 2012) - โ€œThink of the Earth as a living organism that is being attacked by
billions of bacteria whose numbers double every 40 years. Either the host dies, or the virus dies, or both
die.โ€
โ€ข Sir David Attenborough, naturalist (born 1926) - โ€œThe human population can no longer be allowed to grow
in the same old uncontrolled way. If we do not take charge of our population size, then nature will do it for
us.โ€
โ€ข Paul Ehrlich, biologist (born 1932) - โ€œSolving the population problem is not going to solve the problems of
racismโ€ฆ of sexismโ€ฆ of religious intoleranceโ€ฆ of warโ€ฆ of gross economic inequality. But if you donโ€™t solve
the population problem, youโ€™re not going to solve any of those problems. Whatever problem youโ€™re
interested in, youโ€™re not going to solve it unless you also solve the population problem.โ€
โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations
6
Overpopulation and Political Stability
โ€ข "It has long been recognized that population dynamics can affect political stability. In the past two decades
much has been written about the challenges created when a country has a disproportionately large number
of young people. The โ€œyouth bulge,โ€ as it is commonly referred to, can lead to political unrest, and even
conflict, as unemployed youth take their grievances to the street. A โ€œyouth bulgeโ€ can be a transitory
concern if fertility rates are falling, but if a country has a stubbornly high fertility rate and a
disproportionately high percentage of the population under the age of 15, the โ€œyouth bulgeโ€ factor can
persist for decades. In South Sudan and Yemen, where 42 percent of the population is under the age of 15,
and in Somalia, where the percentage is 48 percent, the demographic challenge is stark.โ€œ
โ€ข โ€œThe population of Africa more than quadrupled from 1950 (230 million) to 2010 (1.2 billion) and the same
goes for Iraq (1960 โ€“ 2010 from 7 to 32 million) and Syria (1960 โ€“ 2010 from 5 to 22 million). This
development is a huge issue for the political stability in the world.โ€
โ€ข WEB Source: http://churchandstate.org.uk/2015/09/overpopulation-and-political-stability/
7
Overpopulation and Global Migration
โ€ข โ€œConflict is one human response to scarcity of resources. Though a lack of resources is rarely stated as
justification for any war, it is often likely to be an underlying factor. War or civil war may be the most
extreme cases but many lesser forms of conflict arise when resources are in short supply, from the food riots
of recent years to bitter intercommunal conflicts in Africa. Just as competition for resources from population
growth can engender conflict, the disruption of conflict can weaken access to family planning. Failed states
typically have a high birth rate.โ€
โ€ข โ€œGlobal migration is running at record levels and is predicted to increase still further as population growth,
increased extraction/exploitation, and climate change increase pressure on resources, particularly fisheries
and food production. There will always be reasons why people want to move from one country to another.
Ever larger numbers of unemployed in poorer countries lead growing numbers to seek a better life abroad.
Migration can bring benefits to both the individuals and countries involved: the individual can access new
opportunities, while the country of origin receives monies sent back to relatives: some countries today rely
on remittances for a large proportion of their income. Likewise, the country of destination obtains additional
skills and labour, though sometimes the country of origin can ill afford to lose them.โ€
โ€ข WEB Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/issues-solutions/population/conflict-migration/
8
Overpopulation and Climate Change
โ€ข "The largest single threat to the ecology and biodiversity of the planet in the decades to come will be global
climate disruption due to the buildup of human-generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. People
around the world are beginning to address the problem by reducing their carbon footprint through less
consumption and better technology. But unsustainable human population growth can overwhelm those
efforts, leading us to conclude that we not only need smaller footprints, but fewer feet."
โ€ข <<A 2009 study of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the
โ€œcarbon legacyโ€ of just one child can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person will save by
driving a high-mileage car, recycling, using energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs, etc. Each child born in
the United States will add about 9441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average
parent. The study concludes, โ€œClearly, the potential savings from reduced reproduction are huge compared
to the savings that can be achieved by changes in lifestyle.โ€>>
โ€ข WEB Source:
โ€ข http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/index.html
http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction
9
Security and Climate Change
โ€ข "Climate change is a โ€œthreat multiplier,โ€ exacerbating existing risks to security. The threat comes not from
climate change itself, but rather, from how it interacts with existing security conditions. In this context,
climate change presents both direct and indirect threats to human, national and international security.
Direct threats: Climate change has a direct impact on security through its effect on the critical infrastructure
underpinning a nationโ€™s security. This includes sea level rise risks to military installations that can
degrade a nationโ€™s ability to conduct military operations, as well as extreme weather events that can
devastate essential energy, financial and agricultural centers that undergird a nationโ€™s economic viability.
In some cases, as with some low - lying small island states, sea level rise presents an existential threat.
Indirect threats: Climate change also presents an indirect threat to security by increasing stresses on
the critical resources underpinning a nationโ€™s security, including water, food and energy. These stresses can
degrade a nationโ€™s capacity to govern. Decreases in water, food and energy availability can devastate
livelihoods, and contribute to a broad range of destabilizing trends, including internal population
displacements and migrations, and political unrest. These pressures in turn can contribute to state fragility,
internal conflict and potentially state collapse. Climate change can also indirectly change or disrupt
existing international security dynamics in geostrategic environments, such as the Arctic and the South
China Sea."
โ€ข WEB Source: https://climatesecurity101.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/climate-security-101-2_21_15.pdf
10
Leads the industrial civilization to an irreversible collapse?
โ€ข <<A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that
global industrial civilization could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and
increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or
controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of
rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilizational
disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common.โ€œ>>
โ€ข โ€œThe independent research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical'
(HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-
supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social
scientists. The HANDY model was created using a minor Nasa grant, but the study based on it was conducted
independently. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-
reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.โ€
โ€ข WEB Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-
irreversible-collapse-study-scientists
โ€ข http://www.sesync.org/human-and-nature-dynamics-handy-modeling-inequality-and-use-of-resources-in-
the-collapse-or
11
Conclusions
โ€ข If we want to live in a humane society, it has no purpose to put people ruthlessly in a world where people
have to fight against each other and against nature. And who complains about the social market economy,
that has not yet really understood that the evil still has many other causes. It is not only in the economic
field to rethink, we should reach a global change in our view about world, a change where nature must be
accepted as a partner. And here the intellectuals remained guilty with an answer yet. In this context, a right
step in the right direction has tried the draft on the "Universal Declaration on the Human Responsibilities" of
UNESCO from March 1997th. In the preamble to this Declaration, it is found among others that the global
problems of humanity, such as poverty, underdevelopment, pollution, population growth, disease, crime,
the spread of nuclear weapons, corruption and fanaticism demand global solutions specifically for solutions
on the basis of ideas, values โ€‹โ€‹and norms that should be acceptable to by all cultures and societies.
Unfortunately, we speak very little in politics and in the media about the results of research in the Human
Ecology. Many think that the research results would have no practical significance. But this is a huge mistake.
In all areas where man could come into conflict with its environment, can be found with the help of human
ecology solutions that could minimize the consequences of these conflicts. A complete avoidance of conflict
is unfortunately in our world not possible because there would be no development without conflicts.
โ€ข WEB Source: http://satvanyi.50webs.com/soekolog.html
12

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The Postulate of Human Ecology

  • 1. The Postulate of Human Ecology by Ernst-Nikolaus Satvanyi 1
  • 2. Human Ecology - Definition โ€ข โ€œHuman ecology is an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary study of the relationship between humans and their natural, social, and built environments. The philosophy and study of human ecology has a diffuse history with advancements in geography, sociology, psychology, anthropology, zoology, epidemiology, public health, home economics, and natural ecology, among others.โ€ โ€ข โ€œThe term "human ecology" was published in 1907 in Ellen Swallow Richards work "Sanitation in Daily Life", defined there as "the study of the surroundings of human beings in the effects they produce on the lives of men". Richard's use of the term recognized humans as part of rather than separate from nature. The term made its first formal appearance in the field of sociology in the 1921 book โ€œIntroduction to the Science of Sociology", published by Robert E. Park and Ernest W. Burgess (also from the sociology department at the University of Chicago). Their student, Roderick D. McKenzie helped solidify human ecology as a sub- discipline within the Chicago school. These authors emphasized the difference between human ecology and ecology in general by highlighting cultural evolution in human societies.โ€ โ€ข Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_ecology 2
  • 3. The Postulate of Human Ecology - Definition โ€ข Definition: On a limited area of the Earth, with limited natural resources, under certain climatic conditions, only a limited number of people with a certain behavior can live, - defined by culture, mentality, technology, - to a certain standard of living, and with a certain environmental quality. โ€ข Own Publications: โ€ข - โ€žGlaube und Lebenโ€œ, Nr. 36/1991 โ€ข - โ€žNeue Zรผricher Zeitungโ€œ, Nr. 266/November 12, 2005 โ€ข - โ€žWirtschaftswocheโ€œ, Nr. 26/June 23, 2008 โ€ข WEB Source: http://satvanyi.50webs.com/soekolog.html 3
  • 4. Quotations about population through the ages (I) โ€ข Stasinos, poet (lived 776 โ€“ 580 BC) - โ€œThere was a time when the countless tribes of men, though wide-dispersed, oppressed the surface of the deep-bosomed Earth, and Zeus saw it and had pity and in his wise heart resolved to relieve the all-nurturing Earth of men by causing the great struggle of the Ilian war, that the load of death might empty the world. And so the heroes were slain in Troy, and the plan of Zeus came to pass.โ€ โ€ข Confucius, philosopher (lived 551 โ€“ 479 BC) - โ€œExcessive (population) growth may reduce output per worker, repress levels of living for the masses and engender strife.โ€ โ€ข Aristotle, philosopher (lived 384 โ€“ 322 BC) - โ€œOne would have thought that it was even more necessary to limit population than propertyโ€ฆThe neglect of this subject, which in existing states is so common, is a never-failing cause of poverty among the citizens; and poverty is the parent of both revolution and crime.โ€ โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations 4
  • 5. Quotations about population through the ages (II) โ€ข Thomas Malthus, clergyman and scholar (lived 1766 โ€“ 1832) - โ€œPopulation, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence on the other hand increases only in an arithmetical ratio.โ€ โ€ข Ralph Waldo Emerson, writer (lived 1803 โ€“ 1882) - โ€œIf government knew how, I should like to see it check โ€” not multiply โ€” the population.โ€ โ€ข Bertrand Russell, philosopher (lived 1872 โ€“ 1970) - โ€œThe one real remedy is birth control โ€” that is getting the people of the world to limit themselves to those numbers which they can keep upon their own soil.โ€ โ€ข Albert Einstein, physicist (lived 1879 โ€“ 1955) - โ€œOverpopulation in various countries has become a serious threat to the health of people and a grave obstacle to any attempt to organize peace on this planet.โ€ โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations 5
  • 6. Quotations about population through the ages (III) โ€ข James Lovelock, scientist and environmentalist (born 1919) - โ€œThose who fail to see that population growth and climate change are two sides of the same coin are either ignorant or hiding from the truth. These two huge environmental problems are inseparable and to discuss one while ignoring the other is irrational.โ€ โ€ข Gore Vidal, writer (lived 1925 โ€“ 2012) - โ€œThink of the Earth as a living organism that is being attacked by billions of bacteria whose numbers double every 40 years. Either the host dies, or the virus dies, or both die.โ€ โ€ข Sir David Attenborough, naturalist (born 1926) - โ€œThe human population can no longer be allowed to grow in the same old uncontrolled way. If we do not take charge of our population size, then nature will do it for us.โ€ โ€ข Paul Ehrlich, biologist (born 1932) - โ€œSolving the population problem is not going to solve the problems of racismโ€ฆ of sexismโ€ฆ of religious intoleranceโ€ฆ of warโ€ฆ of gross economic inequality. But if you donโ€™t solve the population problem, youโ€™re not going to solve any of those problems. Whatever problem youโ€™re interested in, youโ€™re not going to solve it unless you also solve the population problem.โ€ โ€ข Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/take-action/speak-out/making-case/quotations 6
  • 7. Overpopulation and Political Stability โ€ข "It has long been recognized that population dynamics can affect political stability. In the past two decades much has been written about the challenges created when a country has a disproportionately large number of young people. The โ€œyouth bulge,โ€ as it is commonly referred to, can lead to political unrest, and even conflict, as unemployed youth take their grievances to the street. A โ€œyouth bulgeโ€ can be a transitory concern if fertility rates are falling, but if a country has a stubbornly high fertility rate and a disproportionately high percentage of the population under the age of 15, the โ€œyouth bulgeโ€ factor can persist for decades. In South Sudan and Yemen, where 42 percent of the population is under the age of 15, and in Somalia, where the percentage is 48 percent, the demographic challenge is stark.โ€œ โ€ข โ€œThe population of Africa more than quadrupled from 1950 (230 million) to 2010 (1.2 billion) and the same goes for Iraq (1960 โ€“ 2010 from 7 to 32 million) and Syria (1960 โ€“ 2010 from 5 to 22 million). This development is a huge issue for the political stability in the world.โ€ โ€ข WEB Source: http://churchandstate.org.uk/2015/09/overpopulation-and-political-stability/ 7
  • 8. Overpopulation and Global Migration โ€ข โ€œConflict is one human response to scarcity of resources. Though a lack of resources is rarely stated as justification for any war, it is often likely to be an underlying factor. War or civil war may be the most extreme cases but many lesser forms of conflict arise when resources are in short supply, from the food riots of recent years to bitter intercommunal conflicts in Africa. Just as competition for resources from population growth can engender conflict, the disruption of conflict can weaken access to family planning. Failed states typically have a high birth rate.โ€ โ€ข โ€œGlobal migration is running at record levels and is predicted to increase still further as population growth, increased extraction/exploitation, and climate change increase pressure on resources, particularly fisheries and food production. There will always be reasons why people want to move from one country to another. Ever larger numbers of unemployed in poorer countries lead growing numbers to seek a better life abroad. Migration can bring benefits to both the individuals and countries involved: the individual can access new opportunities, while the country of origin receives monies sent back to relatives: some countries today rely on remittances for a large proportion of their income. Likewise, the country of destination obtains additional skills and labour, though sometimes the country of origin can ill afford to lose them.โ€ โ€ข WEB Source: http://www.populationmatters.org/issues-solutions/population/conflict-migration/ 8
  • 9. Overpopulation and Climate Change โ€ข "The largest single threat to the ecology and biodiversity of the planet in the decades to come will be global climate disruption due to the buildup of human-generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. People around the world are beginning to address the problem by reducing their carbon footprint through less consumption and better technology. But unsustainable human population growth can overwhelm those efforts, leading us to conclude that we not only need smaller footprints, but fewer feet." โ€ข <<A 2009 study of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the โ€œcarbon legacyโ€ of just one child can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person will save by driving a high-mileage car, recycling, using energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs, etc. Each child born in the United States will add about 9441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average parent. The study concludes, โ€œClearly, the potential savings from reduced reproduction are huge compared to the savings that can be achieved by changes in lifestyle.โ€>> โ€ข WEB Source: โ€ข http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/index.html http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction 9
  • 10. Security and Climate Change โ€ข "Climate change is a โ€œthreat multiplier,โ€ exacerbating existing risks to security. The threat comes not from climate change itself, but rather, from how it interacts with existing security conditions. In this context, climate change presents both direct and indirect threats to human, national and international security. Direct threats: Climate change has a direct impact on security through its effect on the critical infrastructure underpinning a nationโ€™s security. This includes sea level rise risks to military installations that can degrade a nationโ€™s ability to conduct military operations, as well as extreme weather events that can devastate essential energy, financial and agricultural centers that undergird a nationโ€™s economic viability. In some cases, as with some low - lying small island states, sea level rise presents an existential threat. Indirect threats: Climate change also presents an indirect threat to security by increasing stresses on the critical resources underpinning a nationโ€™s security, including water, food and energy. These stresses can degrade a nationโ€™s capacity to govern. Decreases in water, food and energy availability can devastate livelihoods, and contribute to a broad range of destabilizing trends, including internal population displacements and migrations, and political unrest. These pressures in turn can contribute to state fragility, internal conflict and potentially state collapse. Climate change can also indirectly change or disrupt existing international security dynamics in geostrategic environments, such as the Arctic and the South China Sea." โ€ข WEB Source: https://climatesecurity101.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/climate-security-101-2_21_15.pdf 10
  • 11. Leads the industrial civilization to an irreversible collapse? โ€ข <<A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilization could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilizational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common.โ€œ>> โ€ข โ€œThe independent research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation- supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The HANDY model was created using a minor Nasa grant, but the study based on it was conducted independently. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer- reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.โ€ โ€ข WEB Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation- irreversible-collapse-study-scientists โ€ข http://www.sesync.org/human-and-nature-dynamics-handy-modeling-inequality-and-use-of-resources-in- the-collapse-or 11
  • 12. Conclusions โ€ข If we want to live in a humane society, it has no purpose to put people ruthlessly in a world where people have to fight against each other and against nature. And who complains about the social market economy, that has not yet really understood that the evil still has many other causes. It is not only in the economic field to rethink, we should reach a global change in our view about world, a change where nature must be accepted as a partner. And here the intellectuals remained guilty with an answer yet. In this context, a right step in the right direction has tried the draft on the "Universal Declaration on the Human Responsibilities" of UNESCO from March 1997th. In the preamble to this Declaration, it is found among others that the global problems of humanity, such as poverty, underdevelopment, pollution, population growth, disease, crime, the spread of nuclear weapons, corruption and fanaticism demand global solutions specifically for solutions on the basis of ideas, values โ€‹โ€‹and norms that should be acceptable to by all cultures and societies. Unfortunately, we speak very little in politics and in the media about the results of research in the Human Ecology. Many think that the research results would have no practical significance. But this is a huge mistake. In all areas where man could come into conflict with its environment, can be found with the help of human ecology solutions that could minimize the consequences of these conflicts. A complete avoidance of conflict is unfortunately in our world not possible because there would be no development without conflicts. โ€ข WEB Source: http://satvanyi.50webs.com/soekolog.html 12