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Market Report
Shipping & Offshore
June 2016
PART I – THE MARKET
03 Prologue
07 The Project Environment
10 Offshore Freefall
14 The Oil Market
17 The Tanker Market
19 The Dry Market
21 Projects Established
24 Projects Sold
25 Current Projects
26 Projects Estimated Returns
27 Fleet List 2016
PART II – THE PROJECTS
29 Aberdeen Offshore DIS
30 Asian Bulkers DIS
31 Bergshav Aframax AS
32 Bukit Timah Offshore DIS
33 CIT Grieg
34 CIT Thor
35 Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS
36 European Venture DIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
37 Feeder Container Vessel DIS
38 Feeder Container II DIS
39 Golden Kamsar DIS
40 Henrietta Product DIS
41 High Yield Shipping DIS
42 Homborsund Container DIS
43 Industrial Shipping DIS
44 Lesley Product DIS
45 MS Nordstjernen DIS
46 Octavian Bulker DIS
47 Orchard Offshore DIS
48 Panda Chemical II DIS
49 Saragol Tankers 1 DIS
50 Saragol Tankers 2 DIS
51 Seminyak DIS
52 Sentosa Offshore DIS
53 Singapore Offshore DIS
54 Southern Chemical DIS
55 Sudong Offshore DIS
56 Vestland Marine Seismic DIS
57 Platou Shipinvest I DIS
59 Head Office & Contacts
Dear Investors and Business Associates,
During our 12 years in business, the project finance market
has never been more challenging. We are looking for
segments within the shipping and offshore industry that are
generating a return on the investment that will attract
investors to place their equity. The question is; Do they exist
at all today?
The traditional sale/leaseback project with owners selling
their second hand vessels to free up cash and expand their
business is hard to find. We need a charter market that can
generate a positive cashflow to the shipowner after
deducting financial and operating costs. At the same time,
the investors need to be comfortable with the counterparty
risk and the residual value exposure at the end of the charter,
unless there is a put option/purchase obligation with a
bankable counterpart.
Our original business model is very flexible. During our
years in business, we have financed long term and medium
term bareboat lease, long term, medium term and short term
time charters in addition to newbuilding and second hand
asset plays. The sources of funds have been a mix of equity
and debt finance, ranging from highly leveraged deals
(90%+) to 100% equity finance. There are no restrictions on
type or age of the assets and the size of investment has
varied from USD 1 million up to USD 150 million in a
single project. In order to keep the fixed funding cost
competitive, we have also introduced various models
including profit split on earnings and future asset values.
Our team of corporate managers establish the buying/owning
company and keep the investors and banks well informed
with financial accounts and project updates. We have a sales
team that follow up the projects with a liquid second hand
market for buying and selling shares in the existing projects.
We also make use of our large in-house network of
shipbrokers to source new deals and sell existing projects
when the charter contracts expires. In addition, we have
access to the worlds largest research databases and analysis
within the shipping and offshore industry. If we briefly look
into the different shipping and offshore segments today, we
see these challenges and opportunities.
Dry Bulk
A shrinking orderbook, high scrapping levels, horrible
charter market and historically low ship values. Any
sale/leaseback structure will generate an operating loss to the
charterer unless the vessels have been fixed on a long term
time charter contract prior to the slowdown in 2014. Many
dry bulk owners are restructuring their debt and the counter
party risk is high. The timing for asset play investments
financed with 100% equity or possibly a soft loan is likely to
be good. A reduced net fleet growth will turn the market
sooner rather than later.
3
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Prologue
Tankers
A positive spot market in the crude sector. However,
difficult to find long term time charters at attractive levels.
The second hand values for 5-15 year old vessels have
dropped 20-25% during the last 6 months, creating “asset
play” opportunities with a good cashflow in the short term.
We are able to finance 80-90% of the asset value with long
term bareboat charter at a low fixed bareboat rate with a
profit split element.
Container vessels
Similar situation as we see in the dry bulk market. A charter
market that just cover operating costs and second hand
values 30-50% below newbuilding parity. A large orderbook
in the ultra large segment creates more challenges to the
liner operators, but a shrinking orderbook in the feeder
segment could open up for “asset play” opportunities. Many
shipping banks are still struggling with distressed container
fleets but some deals with soft loan structures at high debt
levels are possible to develop. The fresh cash injections are
only covering highly needed working capital and although
the risk is high, the return could be very attractive if the
timing is right.
Offshore
Opportunities - yes, but is the timing right yet? Still a large
orderbook, many vessels laid up, a modern fleet with low
scrapping numbers, and a “dead” charter market. Many
offshore owners are looking for new sources of funds and
many opportunity funds are looking for distressed offshore
deals. However, most of the financial challenges have so far
been sorted out between the senior lenders/bond holders and
the owners. We are the largest offshore broker in the world
and we talk to all the players in the market. We have already
been proposed some distressed vessels at very low prices
and expect to present some “special opportunities” in the
near future.
Other shipping segments
We look at all floating assets, including cruise, ferries,
RORO, cement, car carriers and chemical tankers. These are
seen as industrial shipping segments with less cyclical
markets. We will continue to monitor all opportunities and
hope to see more activity in the coming months. If you are a
shipowner looking for a flexible funding structure or you are
an investor looking for direct investments in the shipping
and offshore industry, we hope to serve you both with good
solutions that creates value for both parties.
In the meantime, we wish you all a good summer vacation.
Kind regards, Clarksons Platou Project Finance
CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS (former RS Platou Finans
AS) has since its inception in 2004 become one of the world’s
major project finance companies that specialize in shipping and
offshore related financial schemes in the interest of both
shipowners and financial investors.
The main objective is to identify attractive investment
opportunities, which involve the purchase of shipping and
offshore related assets along with secured employment, as well
as present asset play cases when the timing is optimal. The
strength of Clarksons Platou Project Finance lies not only with
the highly qualified staff, but also with the vast shipping related
resources available within the Clarksons Platou Group.
Clarksons Platou Project Finance is an independent company
within the Clarksons Platou Group utilizing the full potential of
having close contact with shipbrokers, shipowners, ship
managers, bankers, lawyers and consultants worldwide.
CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT SALES
In late 2014, Clarksons Platou Project Finance established a new
division designated to sourcing equity and increasing liquidity of
project shares in the second hand market. The new focus on
sales will allow us to further increase our project activity and
deal size. The team consists of three brokers and a compliance
officer. Increasing the liquidity in the second hand market will
provide added value to our existing investors and opportunities
for new investors to enter existing projects.
CLARKSONS PLATOU INVESTOR SERVICES
Clarksons Platou Investor Services AS is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of Clarksons Platou Project Finance, and assists
private investors with establishing companies and business
management. The wide scope of services offered include
establishment and incorporation of AS, KS, ANS and DIS,
accounting, and tax documentation, remittance and secretarial
assistance. Clarksons Platou Investor Services has close
connections with numerous well-known and respected
companies and establishments such as lawyers, banks and
chartered accountants of whom these services can be utilized by
investors if so wished. Customers of Clarksons Platou Investor
Services will, as per other investors, have access to interesting
investment projects as proposed by Clarksons Platou Project
Sales. The investors will establish a personal business-
relationship with the assigned accountant so that they can
request prompt assistance.
CLARKSONS PLATOU REAL ESTATE
Clarksons Platou Real Estate AS is one of the leading
players within Norwegian real estate project finance. The
company is a fully integrated real estate corporate finance
house specialized in sourcing, structuring and facilitating
commercial real estate. The company’s geographical
focus is on the Norwegian and Swedish real estate market.
The company’s core actives are:
 Origination of interesting financial estate
opportunities
 Structuring and restructuring of real estate projects
 Structuring of development and opportunistic
projects
 Project financing of real estate projects
 Corporate finance assisting within the commercial
sector
 Asset management
CLARKSONS PLATOU PROPERTY
MANAGEMENT
Clarksons Platou Property Management AS is a
professional manager and developer of industrial and
commercial real estate. The company offers highly
qualified services within all types of management for
sophisticated real estate investors, tenants and suppliers.
The company’s main focus is to contribute to value
creation for the investors and the property itself by being
hands-on throughout the lifespan of the investment.
The company’s core activities are:
 Technical management
 Tenant relationship management
 Letting and commercial management
 Corporate management and reporting
 Building operations and maintenance
 Real estate development
4
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
5
CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Project Sales Project finance Investor ser.
LARS GJERDE
Head of Sales
STIAN SKAUG-PAULSEN
Senior Broker
ANDREAS W. BANG
Broker
AXEL MOLTZAU AAS
Joint Managing Partner
CHRIS. W. SVENSSON
Joint Managing Partner
TRULS WIESE KOLSTAD
Project Broker
HÅKON FREDERIC RØSAKER
Project Broker
TROND HAMRE
Senior Partner
LARS GJØRVAD
Head of Compliance
BENJAMIN RYENG-HANSEN
Managing Director
HEIDI MEYER WESTBY
Office manager
ERIK KRISTIAN ANDRESEN
Corporate Manager
ELISABETH RELBO
Secretary
EVA LISE BJERKE
Corporate Manager
KRISTIN VOLLAN
Managing Director
JULIE MELGAARD RANVIG
Accountant
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Disclaimer - Important Information
The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates) contained herein (together,
the "Information") are provided by Clarksons Platou AS ("Clarksons Platou") for general information
purposes. The Information is based solely on publicly available information and is drawn from Clarksons
Platou's database and other sources. Clarksons Platou advises that: (i) any Information extracted from
Clarksons Platou's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted
from the databases or information services of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the
Information extracted from Clarksons Platous' database; (iii ) whilst Clarksons Platou has taken reasonable
care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is
subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the
Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the
Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons Platou and
its 'connected persons', and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a
variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. The Information is
provided on "as is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ make no
representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability,
suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore
strictly at the recipient's own risk.
The opinions and estimates contained herein represent the view and judgment as of the dates specified (and in
absence of such, as of the date of the report), and are subject to change without notice. Delivery of this report
shall not create any implication that Clarksons Platou assumes any obligation to update or correct the
Information.
This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part
of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other
purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons Platou. Especially, the information is not to be used in
any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property
rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Platou, its ‘connected persons’ and/or its licensors.
To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ shall not be liable to the recipient
or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect,
consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill,
loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the Information whether in
contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. These exclusions
do not apply to the liability of Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ for fraud or fraudulent
misrepresentation.
In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in relation to Clarksons Platou, its ultimate holding company,
subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective shareholders,
directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in
accordance with Norwegian law.
25 %
34 %
13 %
3 %
25 %
Fleet per segment
Offshore
Tankers
Container
Other
Bulk
Bareboat
90 %
Timecharter
10 %
Total Projects By Employment
7
Project Finance: Flexible capital
in a challenging market
Those who have followed the shipping industry for a while,
know how much can happen over the course of a year. This is
certainly true since our last report was published. Since then,
we have seen the Baltic Dry Index fall to its lowest historical
level since 1985, and we have seen the number of offshore
vessels in layup increase to about 400(!) vessels worldwide.
Currently, of all of the major commodity shipping segments,
tankers seem to be the only segment that is able to generate a
sufficent cashflow to cover both operating expenses and
financial costs.
Furthermore, the negative development in earnings and the
decline in vessel values, has created a major problem for
traditional shipping banks around the world. In additon to
major restructurings and defaults on loans, the banks have
more or less closed their doors for new business, with the
exception of top-tier clients, and isloated projects with long
timecharters.
The absence of traditional bank finance in todays market has
made new transactions more lengthy, uncertain and
challenging. At the same time the reduced access to capital
has led to few newbuildings being ordered, and more focus
on second hand market transactions, where Greek, Norwegian
and Chinese cash buyers have been very active.
On the positive side, with market conditions at the lowest
levels seen in 15-30 years we see that there is a record
number of vessels scrapped, which is likely to continue as
owners are not able to operate vessels with a profit.
The combination of increased scrapping and record low
newbuilding activity will hopefully have a normalising effect
on the balance of the shipping markets. Since Februrary this
year we have seen the dry-bulk market bottom out and return
to a level just around OPEX.
In today's market, we see that the advantage of the
Norwegian KS market/Project Finance, is that the equity can
be more flexible and more creative than traditional debt
finance.
For example, recent developments shows that private equity
is entering the market offering debt finance at slightly higher
margins and with profit-sharing arrangements. This is an
interesting development, and a much needed source of capital
for shipowners in today's depressing market.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
8
This year we have seen that the Norwegian KS market has
been less active than in 2014/2015. The reason for this has
not been a lack of investor interest and equity available, but
rather the challenge of finding attractive investment projects
in a very poor market.
A few containership projects have been placed in the
Norwegian KS market, but other than this there has been little
activity. While many have been trying to do drybulk projects,
it has been difficult to purchase quality Japanese built
vessels, as there are sometimes in excess of 20 cash-buyers
waiting in line to inspect and make offers.
Although the first half of 2016 has been a period of with low
activity in the Project Finance market, we believe the second
half of the year will be more active as we see an increase in
dealflow and quality projects before the summer.
Clarksons Platou Project Finance currently has Corporate
Management on 21 shipping projects today. Of these 90% of
the projects are on bareboat charter, while the remaining 10%
are on timecharter. This is a diversified portfolio of crude &
product tankers, chemical tankers, offshore and
containerships.
We have completed/sold 7 shipping projects this year. Of the
7 project sold, 4 generated an IRR between 6-50% p.a. over
the investment period. Given the current market situation,
this is a very satisfactory performance.
There are now 4 employees in the Clarksons Platou Project
Sales working on primary and secondary sales of shares in
new and existing projects. So far this year, we have seen an
increase in number of transactions in the second hand market,
and established a bi-monthly circulation of second hand
market activity to inform investors of what is for sale and
buying interest in the existing projects.
The Project Sales Department has also worked on organizing
shipping and offshore seminars for our investors during the
course of the last year, and this is something we will continue
to focus on going forward.
We look forward to a more active project finance market in
the second half of 2016 and hope that the shipping markets
will improve over the summer.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
$ 0
$ 500
$ 1 000
$ 1 500
$ 2 000
$ 2 500
$ 3 000
$ 3 500
$ 4 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millions
Summary KS-houses 2005 - 2015
(Fearnleys, NRP, Pareto, Clarksons Platou)
Total Project Price
Total Paid in Capital
Total Uncalled Capital
Overview
The oil price has dropped significantly since the second half
of 2014, after three years above USD 100/bbl. Oil companies
were overspending even at USD ~100/bbl and were targeting
spending cuts already late 2013/start of 2014, before the oil
price started sliding. E&P-spending (topline for oil services)
has traditionally trailed the oil price. E&P spending in 2015
declined 20-25%, and a further 5-15% is expected for 2016.
Consensus seems to believe that 2017 will be the final year
with cuts, and that it will flatten out before increasing again
in 2018. Legacy projects (already committed spending) are
likely to prevent spending from dropping even further in
2016.
At the same time, nearly all oil services sectors have seen
very high growth in supply over the last couple of years, and
orderbooks are still substantial compared to the current fleet.
Meeting decreasing demand, the oil services industry are
likely to struggle over the next 24 months. Utilization for
both the Rig, OSV and Subsea space is coming down, and is
likely to drop further especially in 2016. This will mean a
sharp rate fall for new contracts, for most sectors likely to be
close to OPEX. Also, oil companies are pushing for rate
reductions on already negotiated contracts, in some cases
with prolonged duration as a reward. Both new and existing
contracts might be linked/indexed to the oil price
development going forward. To reach acceptable rate levels,
i.e. utilisation levels, one would need to see substantial lay-
up/scrapping in many segments. On a global basis, floater rig
count was down 23%, and the jack-ups down 20% in 2015
(November-15 vs November-14), and this trend will likely
continue through 2016.
10
Offshore freefall, an analysis
of the OSV market
International OSV demand
The decreasing global offshore activity in 2015 led to OSV
demand coming down, and combined with fleet growth led to
lower utilisation and lower rates. The global OSV fleet is
estimated to have grown by 5.7 % percent in 2015. A further
breakdown shows the PSV fleet grew close to 9% and the
AHTS 4-9,999 bhp fleet (cargo work being the mainstay of
this type of vessels) increased by 2.7% percent in 2015. Day
rates across the globe were sharply down, with the NSEA
starting the decline in H2 2014.
The North Sea PSV market has remained challenging for
owners in 2015 and H1 2016, with spot rates ranging between
GBP 2.294-10.374,-* for 499-900m2 deck PSVs, and
between GBP 2,770,- 9,077,-* for 900m2 PSVs (weekly
numbers high and low). Term rates have also come down for
all categories, continuing the downward trend started in H2
2014. While the spot market has been trading at/below OPEX
for some time, there are signs that bids for long term work in
the North Sea are getting closer to OPEX as well. The market
has also seen a very low contracting level through 2015, with
the number of PSV years fixed at its lowest level since the
aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. This is clearly
illustrative of a softening market, where charterers face low
risk of tightening capacity, and rather prefer to fix vessels on
shorter-term contracts or utilize the spot market. Therefore,
the number of spot contracts has been relatively high.
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USD'000
Global PSV average term rates
North Sea 500-749m2 West Africa 500-749m2 Brazil 500-750 m2
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Utilization has been falling steadily since the middle of 2014.
More than 80 PSV's have been laid up, and owners are
increasingly willing to do so as demand outlook is still
weak. We estimate PSV utilization to have decreased 26% in
2015, averaging 76% through the year. Large PSV's achieved
a utilization rate of 85%, 11% down from 2014-levels, while
medium-sized vessels decreased to 65% compared to 90% in
2014. The smaller vessels also achieved lower utilization,
averaging 62% for the year, compared to 88% in 2014. The
fleet increased with 12 vessels, or approximately 5%. The
number of lay-ups is likely to increase, and in December
2015 approximately 1/3 of the fleet was in lay-up. As term
contracts are at OPEX levels, and laid-up vessels are still
bidding for long term contracts, we expect term rates to be
flattish through 2016. Spot rates have been volatile lately, due
to both the before mentioned lay-ups and at times harsher
weather conditions.
Term rates in the US Gulf of Mexico across the PSV vessel
categories declined by an average of 39% across the year.
Demand was driven by a decreasing demand as oil companies
cut capex over the line. Floaters on contract rose in the US
Gulf from 42 units on contract in 2014 to 41 units on contract
in 2015. At the same time the Jones Act effectively blocked
international vessels from entering US waters, thus limiting
supply growth, as well as aggressive stacking from US
owners.
One market, which has seen demand coming down quite
sharply, is Brazil, as both the corruption scandal and
economic problems for Petrobras has led to many vessels
coming off their contract. Also, the blockage of international
tonnage on behalf of Brazilian flagged vessels, has led many
international vessels to leave the Brazilian market, and
increase supply in other regions. The floater rig count
dropped by 24% in 2015, from 62 to 47 floaters. Term rates
for PSV's were on average down 35%.
Overall, average day rates through the year were down
sharply in most regions, but with slight regional variations.
OSV demand growth falling
With the steep fall in oil prices and heightened capital
discipline focus amongst the oil and gas companies, we
expect future demand growth for OSV's to come down
significantly. Demand for OSV's is driven by production
support, rig support and, to some extent, offshore and subsea
construction support. Continuous production support is by far
the most important driver for OSV's, whereas rig support is
the main driver for the AHTS segment. Rig support is
anticipated to drop, thus contributing negatively.
Future OSV demand needs to see the rig count increasing
All segments within the offshore space are affected by the
major oil companies’ increased focus on preserving cash, and
with the current oil price, a limited number of projects are
sanctioned. The level of fixing activity for rigs has been at a
low level for a couple of years. Therefore, the backlog of the
rig companies are coming down. With more than 130 JU's
and more than 70 floaters under construction, utilization
levels will stay low for both segments. Also, the number of
rigs on contract in absolute terms is coming down over the
line. As one of the most important drivers for PSV demand,
this will reflect on the demand for the OSV's for the next
couple of years. With a low sanctioning level of new projects,
demand from construction support will be limited as well.
Therefore, the demand for OSV's caused by production
support (historically 50% of the demand), will be even more
important than earlier, as this is likely to see limited demand
cuts unless the P&A activity kicks off.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
The AHTS Market
The North-Sea AHTS market (>10,000bhp)
The North Sea AHTS market have remained challenging in
2015 and H1 2016, with spot rates typically ranging between
GBP 3.850-63.505,-* for 16-19.999 BHP AHTS's, and
between GBP 4,818,-66,500,-* for the largest class of
AHTS's. The market for long term AHTS contracts,
historically a very small market, has almost vanished this
year. Term rates have also come down for all categories,
continuing the downward trend started in H2 2014. The rates
for this segment have also been close to OPEX for large
periods throughout the year, but with more spikes than the
PSV market. Utilization has come down from 71.6% to
54.8% for the medium class and from 70.8% to 53.8% for the
larger vessels. More than 40 vessels have been laid-up.
Usually, weather conditions have been highly important,
leading to periods of unforeseen tightening of the market
balance and coherent spot rate spikes. This year, the spikes
have been fever, and shorter lasting.
Tough times ahead
Looking ahead, the North Sea AHTS market clearly appears
challenging. A significant number of rigs have come off
contract since H2 2015, and many more are scheduled to
come off firm contracts both on the Norwegian and UK side
of the North Sea through 2016. As for the rest of the world,
North Atlantic fixing activity has also been depressed YTD
2016. We do not rule out the potential for further suspensions
and/or early contract terminations in 2016.
The strong oil price drop has reduced oil companies’
spending on exploration drilling, and we expect the number
of North Sea exploration wells to come down in 2016.
Sanctioning of new field developments is also likely to
remain subdued as long as the oil price remains low, which
will impact development drilling. Against this backdrop, we
expect few contract options to be exercised, accompanied by
depressed fixing activity.
12
There are also a highly limited number of new contracted rigs
expected to enter the North Sea and start drilling during 2016.
We see a net decline of 11 rigs on the NCS by end-16 if no
new contracts are awarded, i.e. five newbuilds to start
drilling, while 16 come off firm contracts. There is a potential
net decline of 17 rigs on UKCS through 2016, i.e. 20 rigs
coming off contracts, while three new rigs potentially starts
drilling. Simultaneously, we have seen contracts being
cancelled and suspended in The NSEA, by Statoil,
ConocoPhillips and Chevron.
Furthermore, we are seeing reduced demand for the large
AHTS vessels,with Petrobras recently cancelling tenders and
vessels already on contract is being cancelled. More vessels
coming off contracts internationally will likely find their way
to the North Sea spot market, as vessel owners have few other
places to trade large AHTS vessels. Arctic campaigns (e.g.
Greenland, Russia) have in the previous years absorbed
significant capacity in the high-end AHTS market, but such
campaigns also seem highly unlikely for the foreseeable
future.
The international markets for large AHTS vessels largely
mirror developments in the North Sea, but are more tilted
towards jack-up support, rig towage, FPSO support and
offshore construction support. The same forces affecting the
North Sea market is, however, expected to also impact
international markets, with reduced rig activity being of
particular importance. As for the North Sea, we expect
utilization and rates to come down, and vessels to come off
contracts. The prospects for medium-sized AHTS vessels
seem the least depressed, as the renewal of the jackup fleet
will continue in the period going forward. However, the
larger AHTS vessels, which are mostly in service with
conventionally moored floaters, may face some headwind due
to a softer floater market. Smaller sized AHTS vessels are not
seen to have the same demand drivers in place. These vessels
are often too small, for example, to support the new and
larger jackups that are being delivered. At the same time this
asset class is meeting increased competition from PSVs and
therefore we expect day rates to remain largely unchanged
through 2016.
We believe that the demand for oil services will come back
first for the shallow water segments, as these typically have a
lower break even cost. Also, these fields are often managed
by NOC's, whom have been less aggressive in cutting
investments thus far in the cycle. We are therefore somewhat
more optimistic on the jack-up rigs than on the floaters going
forward. When it comes to offshore regions, we are more
positive towards the Middle East and the South-East Asia.
The Middle East is shallow water, and dominated by the large
NOC's. Also, the lifting cost here is acceptable at oil price
levels around USD 50/bbl. There also seem to be somewhat
more optimism in South East Asia, with long term rig tenders
out in the market by oil companies wanting to use the current
weak market to secure cheap rigs. Once these are fixed, long
term contracts for OSV supporting these units will likely
follow.
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Global AHTS term rates
Wafr 5,000 BHP WAfr 12,000 BHP
WAfr 16,000 BHP Far East 5,000 BHP
Far East BHP 12,000 North Sea 16,000 BHP
Brazil16,000 BHP
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Utilization and day rates expected to drop
With demand growth expected to fall sharply and fleet
growth estimated to remain high, we expect utilization and
charter rates to drop further in 2016. We have already started
to see this materialize, with long term charter contracts
increasingly entered into at rates close to OPEX. Our
estimates naturally vary somewhat across regions and vessel
specifications, but with the rig count expected to come down
in all areas, there are no regions where we expect positive rate
development during 2016.
Remaining fleet growth might be mitigated by delays
The current market situation involves significant overcapacity
in the OSV sector, especially for the PSV fleet. We are
coming from a period of very strong fleet growth, where the
majority of newbuilding orders were placed in Asia, and
perhaps it’s not so strange that it’s time for a breather. Take
PSVs > 1,000 dwt and AHTSs < 10,000 bhp as an example;
from 2005 to 2015 we recorded the fleet grew 130 percent
globally as 1770 vessels were added to the fleet(!). This is a
significant amount, and tells a story of a very active
newbuilding market. OSV fleet growth further looks set to
remain high, with the orderbook scheduled for delivery in
2016 (and beyond) currently standing at about 450 vessels, of
which 270 are PSVs and 180 are small AHTS (4,000-9,999
BHP) (Jan 2016). Compared to the existing fleet of around
3,000 OSV's, this corresponds to a continued fleet growth of
roughly 15 percent.
Historically, we have seen a net slippage of around 30%,
which should imply that a fair share of deliveries will be
pushed out in time. Increased market uncertainty across oil
services, financing challenges, speculative orders and orders
placed at inexperienced yards, e.g. in Asia, should also lead
to some cancellations going forward, as well as deliveries
being further postponed. Improving productivity as the yards
in general gain more experience, combined with easing
pressure along the supply chain, should to some extent
counter these effects. In sum, we assume net slippage to be
roughly in line with previous years, i.e. around 30 percent.
Surprisingly, ordering activity for OSV newbuilds remained
high throughout 2014, in spite of the market starting to come
down during the second half of the year. In total, we estimate
271 OSV's to have been ordered, consisting of 191 PSVs and
80 small AHTS vessels. This implies an ordering activity
roughly in line with previous years, with 290 OSVs ordered
in 2013 and 273 OSVs in 2012. However, 2015 saw a much
lower ordering activity, with less than 70 vessels being
ordered across both OSV and AHTS. OSV focused yards
prove they can win contracts for Fisheries and Aquaculture,
as these segments are getting increasingly complex, with
synergy effects from OSV construction. Specialized vessel
projects against solid contracts and non-OSV orders help
ensure some backlog for yards trying to survive the down-
cycle. We do not foresee any uptick in ordering activity for
next year, but one might see specific vessels being ordered
against firm contracts.
13
Speculators are owners of 30-40% of the orderbook. There is
reason to suspect that many of these units never will be
delivered, as most of the speculators do not have either the
money or the capacity to take delivery and operate these
vessels. Therefore, there are a number of vessels presently
ready for delivery in China, as many market players are
trying to delay deliveries as far as possible. For example, we
currently count 138 PSVs either ready for delivery or
scheduled for delivery within the next three months, creating
a depressing outlook for next year. We have already seen
some Chinese yards going bankrupt, and expect more to
come. With regards to resale, we recorded 8 small AHTS
(4,000-7,999 bhp) and 14 medium sized PSVs (600-849 m2)
in December 2014 – pretty much exactly one year ago.
Today, of the same tonnage, we count more than 40 small
AHTS and 50 medium sized PSVs.
Total 2015 2016 2017+ In service On Order
AHTS 4-7,999 BHP 123 65 53 5 1255 10 %
AHTS 8-9,999 BHP 46 10 23 13 211 22 %
AHTS 10-15,999 BHP 44 8 32 4 331 13 %
AHTS 16-19,999 BHP 12 1 4 7 120 10 %
AHTS 20,000+BHP 12 3 2 7 86 14 %
A H T S T o tal 237 87 114 36 2003 12 %
PSV <500 m2 23 9 14 0 412 6 %
PSV 500-749 m2 77 35 42 0 533 14 %
PSV 750-899 m2 99 34 62 3 189 52 %
PSV 900+m2 73 22 40 11 401 18 %
P SV T o tal 272 100 158 14 1535 18 %
T o tal Orderbo o k 509 187 272 50 3538 14 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1415
Y-on-Y
% change
Y-on-Y
% change
OSV Fleet Growth
AHTS PSV
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Overview
The drop in oil prices to below $30 in Q1 should mark the
low point for this cycle. Over the coming six months it
should become increasingly clear that fundamentals have
turned the corner and are improving. That should underpin a
more sustained price recovery.
The 2015 price crash has more parallels with the relatively
short-lived collapse of 1998 than the prolonged depression
from 1985. We do not see the market as structurally
imbalanced and fundamentals have begun to respond to the
price plunge. Demand growth doubled last year while supply
is set to flatten this year.
Despite the ballooning inventory overhang, we see long-term
fundamentals as strong; Capacity utilization is very high,
demand growth is decent while supply growth is slowing
sharply. We expect that prices over time will reflect these
changes and rise as a cyclical tightening of fundamentals gets
underway.
Our price forecast (Brent) is $50 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and
$80 for 2018
Cyclical status and outlook; All about 1998 rather than
1985
Oil prices have a history of moving in long cycles, which
makes determining the driving forces all-important. There
have been five oil price collapses during the past 30 years.
Two have been unambiguously demand driven; 2008
(Financial Crisis) and 1997 (Asian Crisis) one has been
unambiguously supply driven; 1985 (Opec’s shift to chase
higher market share via netback pricing). The 1998 decline,
meanwhile, contained both higher Opec production and a
weak global economy. Both of these elements have been key
drivers in the latest price drop.
The oil market;
Surprise supplies
…due to a lack of spare capacity
The main parallel that we see between 1998 and today is the
lack of spare capacity. In both cases, Opec spare capacity was
low, below 3 mbd. In contrast, spare capacity was some 15
mbd when the cartel decided to go for higher market share,
via netback pricing, in 1985. If correct, the implication is that
the bottom of the current cycle should be “V”–shaped and
short, rather than prolonged.
Inventories are sky-high, but are not a leading indicator,
contrary to E&P spending
While the market evidently is in surplus at present with
global oil inventories at an all-time high, this can best be
described as a problem of stock and is a backward looking
metric. The key determinant going forward will be the
development of flows, as determined by changes in market
fundamentals. Demand has already responded forcefully,
growing twice as fast as expected last year. This year is
seeing the start of a significant supply response. In short, we
expect the market to move into deficit from the second half of
the year and onwards. Not only will that begin to eat away at
the inventory overhang, we expect it to also shift the market’s
attention from the current “glut” and back to (lack of) spare
capacity. The result, we expect, should be a significant re-
pricing back into the $50-70 range which we expect will be
dominant over the next two to three years.
Q1 reversal all about sentiment. Q2 will be acid test for
fundamentals
Last year’s recovery attempt failed in June, and instead
accelerated into a “spiral of death”. We foresee a different
pattern this year because we believe fundamentals have
begun to improve. The basis for improvement is only a
relative one in 1H, with “real” improvement having to wait
until 2H but it will be a start. Under such conditions market
sentiment is key, and that improved towards the end of Q1.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Macro sentiment has improved. Saudi “line-in-sand” sends
important signal
Panic over weakening growth has been replaced by cautious
optimism in the wake of better economic data from the US
and the Eurozone and promises of more stimuli from central
banks, including China.
Saudi Arabia’s attempt to draw a line in the sand at $30 has
been another important development affecting market
sentiment. While talk of Russia and Saudi Arabia striking a
deal to “freeze” production at peak levels in an oversupplied
market, was initially scoffed at, history has shown that
previous Opec production agreements have started with
players far apart but have eventually narrowed and resulted in
a supply deal. The return of Iran production makes a supply
deal much more difficult for political reasons, indeed our
Base Case is that there will be no deal, but we also believe
that Opec production will not come close to last year’s 1.5
mbd increase. Iran’s exports will likely rise only gradually
and we expect to see declines in other countries, notably
Venezuela, through the year.
Fundamentals improving, at the margin
On the oil fundamentals’ side, things have begun to improve,
albeit at the margin only, so far. Global supply growth has
come down to around 1.5 mbd (y-y), which, although still
significant, is less than half the rate of the previous six
months. The change is driven by the shift from growth to
decline in the US, but minor declines have begun to show up
elsewhere, notably in Latin America.
In line with an improved macro sentiment, oil demand figures
have also shown a rebound, indicating that the weather rather
than a marked weakening of the macro climate was the driver
of weakness in the winter months. Gasoline demand has
rebounded sharply in the US and is growing very strongly in
China and India.
Q2 will serve as an acid test for recovery. We expect a lower-
than-normal inventory build as demand will decline by less
than normal from Q1, partly because of that mild winter .
With an expected decline in oil production, the inventory
build should surprise on the low side.
A key feature should be the start of a significant drop in US
crude oil inventories. The buildup having taken place this
year, making media headlines every week, is driven by rising
imports not by production, which is falling. When Asian
refinery demand returns in Q2, competition for US import
barrels will increase which in turn should lead to upward
pressure on prices.
In our view this should be seen as an early step in the long
process of rebalancing market fundamentals and a stepping
stone to a genuine market tightening starting in 2H, a
development which should support a price recovery.
15
2017-2018; Effect of spending cuts to depress global supply
In our view, “the game” in the oil market the next few years
will be all about supply. We expect demand gains to be
relatively steady at 1.0-1.5% p.a., as rapid growth in living
standards of emerging markets will continue to drive
transportation growth. Demand in the mature OECD
economies is set to peak on an absolute basis and begin to
decline, but it will be a moderate drop, no collapse. Barring a
new global recession, which of course cannot be ruled out,
we expect global gains to be relatively steady.
Changes are expected to be much bigger for supply than
demand
Much larger variations can be expected on the supply side of
the market, in our opinion. Global capital expenditure in
production and exploration has gone through its “biggest
drop ever”, according to the IEA, and is set to fall further this
year. While service costs of course also are coming down and
productivity has gone up, particularly in the highly dynamic
North American market, we find the spending declines and
observable crisis in the service industries difficult to square
with the IEA’s medium-term view of a one-year decline in
output (2016) and a return to the same growth outlook they
held a year ago from 2018 onwards.
Historically, supply cycles have been relatively long, lasting
on average 5-7 years from peak to trough. The IEA has
already dramatically altered its view on 2016 over the past
year, going from an expected increase of +0.5 mbd to an
expected decline of -0.7 mbd in its latest forecast. In this
context we will be surprised if the current downturn is over
already in 2017.
The US shale revolution has led to a two-tiered oil market in
terms of project development and economics. Where
traditional non-Opec production has been capital-intensive,
long lead-time projects, US shale is seen as variable cost and
short-lead times. Indeed, US supply takes the biggest hit with
a 0.5 mbd decline this year before flattening out and
beginning a rebound in 2018.
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Oil Production (Output in mbbl/d)
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Non-Opec, non-US production expected to drop in 2017-18
What this effectively means, however, is that current
forecasts assume that non-Opec producers ex US will
continue to grow through in 2017 and 2018. We see this
development as unlikely based on the decline in spending and
rig activity and the expected coming increase in depletion as
the impact of less in-field drilling sets in.
The decline in US production is expected to continue through
2017 before bottoming and commencing a rebound in 2018
which is expected to grow gradually stronger towards 2020.
The crucial difference with the 2013-2015 period is that the
world will need whatever oil the US is capable of producing
in the next upturn in order to compensate for declines
elsewhere.
We assume non-Opec production will decline by 1.0 mbd this
year and by somewhat less in 2017 before commencing a
rebound. Combined with our demand growth scenario
outlined above the call-on-Opec crude will rise from 32 mbd
in 2016 to more than 35 mbd in 2018. The difference will
have to be covered by commercial inventories. We expect
inventories to begin a sustained decline from current all-time
highs in the second half of this year and estimate that they
should fall to the low end of the five year range by the end of
2018.
The decline in inventories is expected to return the market’s
attention to the low level of spare capacity in the global
production chain, triggering a risk in the supply risk premium
on top of tight fundamentals.
16
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Brent Price (USD /bbl)
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
At cruising altitude but beware of turbulence
The tanker market has entered 2016 with a tailwind powered
by strong fundamentals: Capacity utilization is near the
spike-triggering 90% mark, trade growth is at a multi-year
high and distances are lengthening. Fleet growth is picking
up, but moderately and from a low level, so far.
While 2016 has the looks of another strong year, we believe
investors should be prepared for a different journey than in
2015. Fleet growth is on the rise while trade growth is
expected to moderate. Fleet utilization should still remain
high but the freight market is vulnerable to how the oil
inventory overhang will be absorbed. Stronger oil demand
and floating storage is good news, while lower production
and inventories is not.
The long-term outlook (towards 2020) has improved, in our
view. The low oil price environment should redraw the oil
trade map in favor of the Middle East, which will make it
favorable for tankers. On the fleet capacity side, we expect
that continued challenging capital markets will restrict
ordering. Ongoing slippage and increasing fleet replacement
needs should serve to further limit fleet growth. All-in-all,
prospects appear unusually good for a well-balanced market
in the medium-term.
The New Year starts on a slower note as high inventories
level the playing field
As expected, the market turned in a strong fourth quarter
finish as Middle East exports surge again with much of it
heading to the US, where seaborne imports increased y-y for
the first time in six years.
The New Year has started on a softer note with freight rates
hitting “air pockets” for no apparent reason. In our view, this
is a result of the “new normal” in the oil market, where
refiners sitting on record-high inventories have a higher
degree of flexibility than normal, allowing them pull back
from the spot market for longer periods than normal in order
to prevent from overheating. The predictable result is a build-
up of spot tonnage and downward pressure on rates. This
goes on until charterers decide to come down off the fence
and then the pendulum swings in the other direction
17
The Tanker market
2015; A banner year, but time to look ahead
While 2014 had been a year of exceptionally low fleet growth
leading to tightening market fundamentals, 2015 was the year
of demand. We estimate that tonnage demand, including
volume, trading distances and productivity factors, rose by
around 7%, more than twice the growth rate seen in 2014.
Fleet growth picked up somewhat but remained well below
trend at 2.5%. Fleet utilization thus rose by around 4%-pts to
nearly 90%, the highest level since 2008.
Oil trade is driven by production and 2015 was the best year
in a decade in that regard, with world oil production rising by
more than 3 mbd (3.5%). Of particular importance for the
tanker market was the shift in geographical locations which
took place; Higher Middle East output explained about 50%
of the increase, as Iraq and the Saudi Arabia took to the
pumps, making it a very “shipping intensive” year.
In volume terms, Europe was the biggest gainer with an
increase of 0.6 mbd (prel. estimate), as its refineries sharply
raised utilization to meet higher local demand and boost
exports in a growing world market. Chinese imports were a
close second, powered by a strong demand response and
further additions to its strategic oil reserves.
The decline in seaborne imports to the US continued for its
sixth straight year, but, importantly, the rate of decline
showed markedly to around 6%, less than half of the decrease
in the previous two years.
Average trading distances increased only modestly, owing to
a large drop in MEG-US exports, but floating storage
emerged as a key support factor. Contrary to 2009/’10,
however, logistics rather than price speculation has been the
main driver. Measuring the level of floating storage is
challenging, but we estimate that between 1% and 2% of the
total tanker fleet has been employed in storage, mostly on
VLCCs.
Finally, we find little evidence that higher average speed, the
supposed “grim reaper” for the tanker market, has had much
impact. While average ballast speed for the VLCCs picked up
markedly through the winter, there was little change for other
segments (which spend more time in port, on average).
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Fleet growth; On the upswing but moderately so far
Following two years of sharply slower fleet growth, the trend
turned up last year but the level remained modest in a
historical perspective. The total fleet (including product
tankers) grew by 2.5%, as deliveries remained at a very low
17 mdwt. The crude fleet grew by a very modest 1.5%,
concentrated in VLs and Suezmaxes, while crude aframaxes
declined. The clean fleet, on the other hand, continued its
rapid expansion, growing by 5% from the year earlier, as
LR2s and MRs both expanded by nearly 10% each.
Scrapping and phase-outs declined markedly in line with the
increase in freight rates and hit an “all-time” low on both an
absolute and relative basis at 3.2 mdwt, less than 1% of the
fleet.
Market likely to flatten as fundamentals gradually
normalize
The tanker market is coming off two years of significant
tonnage deficits but is now likely to gradually return to a
more even playing field. Most obvious, significantly higher
deliveries will boost fleet growth, to 4-5% p.a. in 2016 and
2017. Tonnage demand growth, on the other hand, is
expected to normalize following the spectacular gain seen
over the past eighteen months. That still means growth, but in
a lower, and more normal, 4% range.
Macro and oil market uncertainties weigh…
The year has opened with a new round of macro
uncertainties, triggering the worst start of the year “ever” in
global stock markets and fresh downturn for global
commodity prices. A clearer verdict for “weaker growth” is
hard to imagine. Yet, we do not see the data actually released
from the US, China and the Euro as consistent with a
developing recession and we thus stick with a scenario of a
gradually improving world economy.
Improving oil demand played a big role in the strong trade
growth figures seen during the past year and remains a key
issue for 2016. The IEA is forecasting a sharp deceleration of
demand growth from 1.7 mbd to 1.2 mbd as the effect of the
sharp price decline fades. History has shown, however, that
the impact of lower prices can take two to three years to fully
play out. We thus believe there is still a case for oil demand
to outperform expectations, although not to the extent it did
last year when growth turned out to be nearly twice as high as
was expected at the start of the year.
Compounding the challenge posed by inventory overhang
If oil demand continues to grow while production declines,
the long buildup of oil inventories is likely to go into reverse
eventually. The impact on the freight market is likely to be
two-fold; In the short-term, the reaction will most likely be
negative. Trade will slow, possibly decline, and tonnage
presently employed for floating storage will return to active
trading. In the longer-term, however, the decline in non-Opec
production will create more room for Opec oil, which is
positive for tankers. We expect these factors to be of greater
importance for 2017 than for 2016, but awareness and
monitoring should begin now.
Trade growth to slow in line with global oil production…
The oil market is likely to undergo a significant change in
2016 as the supply side begins to react to the sharp drop in
prices. Non-Opec production is expected to fall by around 0.5
mbd (1%), a sharp turnaround from average production
increases of around 2 mbd for each of the past two years.
Lower US production will lead the decline, and a consequent
rebound in seaborne imports should thus buffer the impact on
tanker demand, but overall trade growth will slow.
Opec production, which was the key driver of trade growth in
2015, is also unlikely to repeat that performance. Spare
capacity has returned to its low point for the past decade and
it is thus hard to foresee a sharp rise in production similar to
2015. Other producers are at capacity and could just as well
see some declines as the impact of falling oil prices bite.
The exception, of course, is Iran, which is set to increase its
presence in the world oil market following the removal of
sanctions. The timing and scale of higher Iranian oil exports
is subject to many unknown factors, but consensus among
analysts is for a relatively rapid increase of about 0.5 mbd,
anything beyond that may not be online until late in the year.
For other Opec members, notably Venezuela, Nigeria and
Libya who are heavily impacted by the low oil price,
production could possibly drop.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Recovery in rates – although from extremely low levels
Freight rates have recovered significantly over the last two
months compared with the extreme low levels witnessed in
the first quarter of this year. However, the current earnings
are only covering more or less operating costs for most sizes.
Spot rates for Capesizes and Panamaxes have climbed from
less than $3,000 per day in February to approximately $7,000
and $5,000 per day, respectively. Supramax tonnage obtain
currently close to $6,000 per day, while Handysize earning is
around $5,000 per day. This is up from around $2,500 in
February.
Asset values also seems to have stabilized and in some
segments we have even noticed slightly firmer prices
recently.
Stronger Chinese imports
The seaborne dry bulk activity has recovered over the last
few months after a lackluster start of the year. The main
reason is elevated imports to China. When comparing the
first 4 months with the same period of last year, Chinese iron
ore imports were nearly 7 percent higher, while bauxite and
soybean imports escalated by 23 percent and 12 percent,
respectively. Coal imports however, were down 2 percent and
grain imports dropped by 14 percent. In total, Chinese dry
bulk imports rose 4.6 percent.
Dry bulk imports to other Asian countries showed in total a
moderate drop in iron ore and coal, while we registered
higher steel products imports to several countries. Elsewhere
we noticed an upswing in fertilizer imports to Brazil, but a
drop in the US urea imports. Coal imports to Europe
continued to drop and were 20 percent lower year on year.
Iron ore imports to Europe fell 11 percent.
Grain and soybean transportation from major exporters rose
about 15 percent during the first 4 months. South American
export rose about 50 percent, while Russian grain exports
jumped nearly 30 percent. North American shipments
however, fell around 5 percent.
In total, global dry bulk trade is estimated to have increased
only marginally during the first 4 months of this year
measured against the comparable period last year.
19
When is it Time for a
dry bulk recovery?
Fleet trend
Deliveries of new ships totaled nearly 23 mill dwt during the
first 5 months of this year. This was 35% less than the
scheduled deliveries according to the orderbook. Removals
were slightly above 20 mill dwt, The size of the fleet was 2%
larger than in the same period last year.
Market prospects
Even though the world economy is expected to improve over
the following years, there is still a downside risk to this
scenario in the short term perspective. Relatively slow
growth in demand for raw materials is still negatively
affecting commodity prices, especially in minerals. This is
impacting economic activity in a couple of emerging market
economies which are heavily dependent on export of raw
materials.
However, the most important factor for dry bulk demand will
be China’s economic performance and especially China’s
import requirements for iron ore and coal. China’s steel
consumption is expected to decrease further this year. Export
of steel products are expected to remain stable. However,
potential trade issues whereby several countries are
considering to introduce import tariffs on Chinese steel,
might reduce exports. Therefore, steel production in China
could decrease further.
On these assumptions, growth in demand will fall short of the
fleet expansion this year, leading to lower fleet utilization
than in 2015. We should however, expect some volatility in
earnings over the remainder of the year. Seasonality, trading
patterns and productivity factors will all have potential
implications on tonnage demand in shorter periods.
In 2017 and 2018, tonnage demand is expected to gradually
grow at a higher rate than the fleet size and thereby result in a
recovery from late 2017 through 2018.
The main risk elements for a slower than expected recovery
in dry bulk fundamentals will be a slower than expected
economic growth in China and less coal imports to India.
Upside potentials for a quicker recovery will be a reduction in
yards ability to deliver newbuildings and not least a stronger
than expected stimulative economic policy in China resulting
in stronger growth in raw materials imports.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
China’s iron ore imports will therefore to a large extent be
determined by how much of the domestic iron ore high cost
capacity will be phased out and subsequently replaced by
imports. Even though iron ore prices saw surprisingly high
increase earlier this year, the forward prices are expected to
decrease going forward. It is therefore plausible to expect an
increase in closures of Chinese iron ore mines. Therefore, we
forecast some 30 - 40 mill tons increase per year of iron ore
imports to China in the coming years. For other importing
countries, we do not foresee any dramatic changes compared
to last year.
One vital factor for dry bulk demand will be the trend in
Chinese coal imports. If we assume electricity demand will
climb 2 – 3% per year, the main question will be at what pace
will the capacity of alternative electricity increase. Expansion
of hydro power capacity will be limited over the following
years as the Chinese government has scaled down on the new
hydro dam projects. Even though capacity of other
renewables will expand significantly, these will still be
relatively small in the total energy mix. It is therefore
plausible to expect stabilization of coal consumption in 2016
and 2017. As for a stabilization in coal imports, it will to a
large extent be determined by the Chinese government’s
policy to support domestic coal mining. We believe imports
will stabilize, at least for this year. In the longer term,
however, there is probably higher downside risk than upside
potential in coal imports.
One upside potential in coal trade is in higher Indian imports.
Expanding steel production coupled with increasing number
of coal-fired power plants, will generate higher growth in
coal demand. Although Indian government has carried out
successful reforms to boost domestic coal mining, coal
imports will continue to grow as India will not be able to
procure all of its coal requirements domestically.
20
Elsewhere in Asia, there are a few new coal-fired power plant
projects, namely in Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam etc. under
construction which should give some boost to coal trade.
Trade of other dry bulk commodities, especially in the
minerals sector, can be best explained in relation to the
economic growth. Bauxite exports will continue to grow
from expanding production capacities in Australia and West
Africa. As for the nickel ore trade, there is limited potential
for a recovery as new projects are not in the pipeline in the
medium-term. Grain and soybean exports are expected to
remain steady over the following months. Fertilizer trade is
expected to increase, especially to India and Brazil.
In our base case scenario, we predict seaborne dry bulk trade
to increase in the region of 1% in 2016 followed by 2 – 3%
escalation p.a. in 2017 and 2018. Growth in real tonnage
demand is not expected to deviate significantly from the
volume growth. Sailing distances in grain, soybeans and
some industrial commodities are expected to rise, while we
foresee relatively small changes in iron ore and coal. Ship
sailing speed is not anticipated to increase significantly until
freight rates reach much higher levels.
Fleet trend
The fleet is anticipated to expand between 1 and 2% this year,
followed by less than 1% increase p.a. in 2017 and 2018. We
assume deliveries to total around 45 - 50 mill dwt in 2016,
slowing to 35 - 40 mill dwt in 2017 and some 25 mill dwt in
2018. However, extremely difficult financial situation in the
dry bulk industry might result in fewer deliveries than
forecasted. Removal volumes are expected to reach 45 mill
dwt this year, followed by 29 mill dwt in 2017 and 20 mill
dwt in 2018.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
The Baltic Dry Index (Excluding levels above 4000)
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
21
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2004 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Aries (Ugelstad) Supply I KS 1 April 2004 NOK 201 046 770 42 300 000 15 000 000 57 300 000
Ross Cape DIS 1 October 2004 USD 17 350 000 3 850 000 1 000 000 4 850 000
International Container Ships KS 2 November 2004 USD 66 260 000 12 260 000 4 150 000 16 410 000
J.B.U OBO I KS 1 December 2004 USD 36 580 000 7 780 000 5 000 000 12 780 000
No. of vessels 5 Total NOK 201 046 770 42 300 000 15 000 000 57 300 000
No. of projects 4 Total USD 120 190 000 23 890 000 10 150 000 34 040 000
Total EUR 0 0 0
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2005 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Eidsiva Trucker KS 1 February 2005 EUR 10 900 000 2 470 000 2 000 000 4 470 000
Mount Faber KS 4 April 2005 USD 80 900 000 13 325 000 0 13 325 000
Norwegian Shipping DIS April 2005 USD 19 200 000 13 700 000 5 500 000 19 200 000
Goliat Roro KS 1 May 2005 EUR 9 000 000 1 960 000 1 500 000 3 460 000
Global Cable KS 2 June 2005 USD 12 320 000 2 870 000 3 000 000 5 870 000
Bergshav Chemical KS 2 July 2005 EUR 20 470 000 4 470 000 2 200 000 6 670 000
Volstad Supply I KS 1 August 2005 NOK 262 620 000 75 050 000 20 000 000 95 050 000
Scandinavian Bulkers KS 5 September 2005 EUR 28 926 000 6 776 000 6 000 000 12 776 000
Volstad Supply II KS 1 November 2005 NOK 262 620 000 75 050 000 20 000 000 95 050 000
Agder Ocean Reefer KS 3 November 2005 USD 27 750 000 6 150 000 0 6 150 000
Celine I OBO DIS 1 November 2005 USD 12 470 000 1 970 000 3 000 000 4 970 000
Cement Ship II DIS 1 November 2005 USD 19 800 000 5 575 000 4 000 000 9 575 000
Multipurpose Bulkers DIS 4 December 2005 EUR 27 145 000 4 695 000 4 500 000 9 195 000
SBS Tempest KS 1 December 2005 NOK 134 300 000 29 300 000 10 000 000 39 300 000
SBS Torrent KS 1 December 2005 NOK 141 175 000 31 975 000 10 000 000 41 975 000
Green Pacific DIS 3 December 2005 USD 30 590 000 6 090 000 8 000 000 14 090 000
No. of vessels 31 Total NOK 800 715 000 211 375 000 60 000 000 271 375 000
No. of projects 16 Total USD 203 030 000 49 680 000 23 500 000 73 180 000
Total EUR 96 441 000 20 371 000 16 200 000 36 571 000
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2006 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Norwegian Shipping II DIS January 2006 USD 8 000 000 5 200 000 2 800 000 8 000 000
SBS Typhoon KS 1 January 2006 NOK 167 050 000 36 650 000 25 000 000 61 650 000
Japan Offshore DIS 3 April 2006 USD 37 150 000 8 150 000 3 000 000 11 150 000
Aries (Ugelstad) Supply II KS 1 April 2006 NOK 155 000 000 33 000 000 21 000 000 54 000 000
European Venture DIS 2 April 2006 USD 46 325 000 9 965 000 5 000 000 14 965 000
NFC Offshore DIS 4 April 2006 USD 74 500 000 24 480 000 8 000 000 32 480 000
Oceanlink Offshore DIS 1 May 2006 USD 13 250 000 2 750 000 2 500 000 5 250 000
Panda Chemical Oil DIS 1 June 2006 USD 19 545 000 4 345 000 1 500 000 5 845 000
Western Chemical KS 3 July 2006 EUR 32 775 000 7 095 000 5 750 000 12 845 000
Singapore Offshore DIS 5 August 2006 USD 129 100 000 8 500 000 8 000 000 16 500 000
Oceanlink Offshore II DIS 1 August 2006 USD 12 000 000 2 250 000 2 250 000 4 500 000
Japan Offshore II DIS 3 September 2006 USD 39 075 000 8 775 000 7 825 000 16 600 000
NFC Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 46 046 000 14 186 000 8 666 000 22 852 000
Japan Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 47 340 000 10 540 000 9 430 000 19 970 000
Oceanlink Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 28 500 000 5 200 000 9 600 000 14 800 000
Agder Ocean Reefer II DIS 2 November 2006 USD 19 500 000 4 500 000 4 500 000
Northern Offshore DIS 2 November 2006 USD 39 000 000 8 400 000 6 740 000 15 140 000
Norwegian Product DIS 2 November 2006 USD 32 865 000 7 265 000 6 500 000 13 765 000
Global Cable II DIS 2 December 2006 USD 45 400 000 9 400 000 6 000 000 15 400 000
No. of vessels 39 Total NOK 322 050 000 69 650 000 46 000 000 115 650 000
No. of projects 19 Total USD 637 596 000 133 906 000 87 811 000 221 717 000
Total EUR 32 775 000 7 095 000 5 750 000 12 845 000
Projects established per year
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
22
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2007 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Ross Chemical DIS 5 February 2007 USD 119 100 000 25 100 000 12000000 37 100 000
Atlantic Guardian DIS 1 February 2007 USD 42 880 000 8 100 000 8 000 000 16 100 000
NFC Panamax DIS 1 March 2007 USD 24 650 000 4 650 000 4 650 000
Orchard Offshore DIS 4 March 2007 USD 43 800 000 7 800 000 2 125 000 9 925 000
Raffles Offshore DIS 1 March 2007 USD 45 945 000 12 445 000 4 500 000 16 945 000
Norwegian Offshore DIS 4 April 2007 USD 65 470 000 21 900 000 6 000 000 27 900 000
Med Ethylene DIS 2 May 2007 USD 27 875 000 6 275 000 4 500 000 10 775 000
Ullswater Subsea DIS 1 May 2007 USD 48 820 000 12 820 000 5 000 000 17 820 000
European Venture II DIS 1 July 2007 USD 11 370 000 3 370 000 6 000 000 9 370 000
Tioman Offshore DIS 1 July 2007 USD 51 150 000 11 150 000 11 150 000
Sentosa Offshore DIS 4 July 2007 USD 46 350 000 8 300 000 8 300 000
Southern Chemical DIS 3 July 2007 EUR 88 200 000 10 350 000 10 000 000 20 350 000
Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 August 2007 USD 43 600 000 10 500 000 10 500 000
Asian Bulkers DIS 3 October 2007 USD 142 875 000 49 075 000 49 075 000
Short Sea Shipping DIS 4 November 2007 EUR 24 800 000 4 550 000 4 500 000 9 050 000
Ross Chemical IV DIS 2 November 2007 USD 53 000 000 18 000 000 18 000 000
Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS 1 November 2007 USD 32 750 000 7 150 000 7 000 000 14 150 000
Pantheon Chemical DIS 1 November 2007 EUR 31 000 000 5 160 000 5 500 000 10 660 000
No. of vessels 43 Total NOK
No. of projects 18 Total USD 799 635 000 206 635 000 55 125 000 261 760 000
Total EUR 144 000 000 20 060 000 20 000 000 40 060 000
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2008 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Marineline Chemical DIS 3 February 2008 USD 79 850 000 12 680 000 12 680 000
Edda Accommodation DIS 1 February 2008 EUR 126 500 000 44 000 000 12 000 000 56 000 000
NFC AHTS Limited 2 March 2008 USD 70 520 000 24 600 000 24 600 000
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS 3 May 2008 USD 125 269 250 29 269 250 29 269 250
Mountbatten Offshore DIS 2 May 2008 USD 109 134 000 25 134 000 25 134 000
Bovey Offshore Ltd. 4 May 2008 USD 42 650 000 14 475 000 14 475 000
Semakau Producer DIS 1 July 2008 USD 20 400 000 20 400 000 20 400 000
European Venture III DIS 1 July 2008 USD 17 720 000 5 720 000 5 000 000 10 720 000
Golden Kamsar DIS 1 August 2008 USD 67 294 000 17 294 000 12 500 000 29 794 000
Jimbaran DIS 1 September 2008 USD 54 200 000 9 035 000 9 035 000
Seminyak DIS 2 September 2008 USD 108 963 000 18 618 000 14 000 000 32 618 000
JBUS Offshore DIS 2 September 2008 USD 60 000 000 27 000 000 27 000 000
Oceanlink Reefer III DIS 1 September 2008 USD 20 200 000 5 200 000 5 000 000 10 200 000
Agder Ocean Reefer KS 7 October 2008 USD 53 500 000 10 000 000 7 000 000 17 000 000
No. of vessels 31 Total NOK
No. of projects 14 Total USD 829 700 250 219 425 250 43 500 000 262 925 250
Total EUR 126 500 000 44 000 000 12 000 000 56 000 000
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2009 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE
PAID IN
CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Leighton / ICON 3 July 2009 USD 135 000 000 10 000 000 10 000 000
ICON Victorious 1 USD 42 500 000 37 750 000 37 750 000
Diving Bell 1 USD 10 000 000 8 000 000 8 000 000
No. of vessels 5 Total NOK
No. of projects 3 Total USD 187 500 000 55 750 000 55 750 000
Total EUR
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
23
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2010 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Octavian Bulker DIS 1 July 2009 USD 37 400 000 16 000 000 16 000 000
Shanghai Bulker DIS 1 USD 9 000 000 1 670 000 1 670 000
Saragol Tankers 1 DIS 1 USD 48 237 500 17 737 500 17 737 500
Saragol Tankers 2 DIS 1 USD 54 312 500 18 812 500 2 000 000 20 812 500
No. of vessels 4 Total NOK
No. of projects 4 Total USD 148 950 000 54 220 000 2 000 000 56 220 000
Total EUR 0 -
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2011 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Northern Supply DIS 2 May 2011 USD 88 000 000 20 800 000 19 280 000 40 080 000
Redfish Offshore 2 November 2011 USD 45 000 000 9 000 000 9 000 000
No. of vessels 4 Total NOK
No. of projects 2 Total USD 133 000 000 29 800 000 19 280 000 49 080 000
Total EUR
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2012 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Singapore Supply DIS 1 March 2012 USD 42 700 000 10 240 000 8 580 000 18 820 000
Industrial Shipping DIS 7 March 2012 EUR 25 950 000 5 750 000 5 750 000
Vestland Marine PSV DIS 1 April 2012 USD 1 650 000 1 650 000 1 650 000
MS Nordstjernen DIS 1 November 2012 NOK 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000
No. of vessels 10 Total NOK 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000
No. of projects 4 Total USD 44 350 000 11 890 000 8 580 000 20 470 000
Total EUR 25 950 000 5 750 000 5 750 000
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2013 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Feeder Container Vessel DIS 1 USD 4 300 000 4 300 000 4 300 000
Sudong Offshore DIS 1 October 2013 USD 26 000 000 8 200 000 8 200 000
Panda Chemical II DIS 1 USD 4 315 000 1 815 000 2 000 000 3 815 000
No. of vessels 3 Total NOK
No. of projects 3 Total USD 34 615 000 14 315 000 2 000 000 16 315 000
Total EUR
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2014 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Vestland Marine Seismic DIS 1 February 2014 USD 1 550 000 1 550 000 1 550 000
High Yield Shipping DIS 1 April 2014 USD 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000
CIT-Grieg Lygra 1 June 2014 USD 49 000 000 49 000 000 49 000 000
CIT-Grieg Minerva 1 June 2014 USD 17 100 000 17 100 000 17 100 000
DSV Alliance DIS 1 June 2014 USD 21 500 000 10 112 500 10 112 500
Aberdeen Offshore DIS 1 November 2014 USD 71 464 000 32 464 000 32 464 000
Lesley Product DIS 1 November 2014 USD 2 355 000 2 355 000 2 355 000
No. of vessels 7 Total NOK
No. of projects 7 Total USD 168 969 000 118 581 500 0 118 581 500
Total EUR
PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2015 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY
TOTAL PROJECT
PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL
UNCALLED
CAPITAL
TOTAL COMMITTED
CAPITAL
Bergshav Aframax AS 2 January 2015 USD 10 000 000 7 500 000 2 500 000 10 000 000
CIT-Thor Magni 1 February 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000
Homborsund Container DIS 1 April 2015 USD 4 900 000 4 900 000 4 900 000
Henrietta Product DIS 1 April 2015 USD 10 400 000 8 400 000 8 400 000
CIT-Thor Modi 1 May 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000
CIT Thor Frigg 1 May 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000
Feeder Container II DIS 2 September 2015 USD 15 525 000 15 525 000 15 525 000
CIT-Thor Freyja 1 September 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000
No. of vessels 10 Total NOK
No. of projects 8 Total USD 126 675 000 122 175 000 2 500 000 124 675 000
Total EUR
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
24
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Projects Sold
# Projects sold Vessels Established Currency Total Project Cost IRR Sold
1 Diving Bell 1 July 2009 USD 10 000 000 N/A N/A
2 ICON Victorious 1 July 2009 USD 42 500 000 N/A N/A
3 Leighton / ICON 3 July 2009 USD 135 000 000 N/A N/A
4 Redfish Offshore 2 November 2011 USD 45 000 000 N/A N/A
5 Ross Chemical DIS 5 February 2007 USD 119 100 000 N/A N/A
6 Short Sea Shipping DIS 4 November 2007 EUR 24 800 000 N/A N/A
7 International Container Ships KS 2 November 2004 USD 66 260 000 95 %* 2005
8 Aries (Ugelstad) Supply I KS 1 April 2004 NOK 201 046 770 66 % 2007
9 Aries (Ugelstad) Supply II KS 1 April 2006 NOK 155 000 000 64 % 2007
10 Celine I OBO DIS 1 November 2005 USD 12 470 000 57 % 2007
11 Goliat Roro KS 1 May 2005 EUR 9 000 000 -25 %* 2007
12 Green Pacific DIS 3 December 2005 USD 30 590 000 N/A 2007
13 J.B.U OBO I KS 1 December 2004 USD 36 580 000 37 % 2007
14 Japan Offshore DIS 3 April 2006 USD 37 150 000 70 %* 2007
15 Japan Offshore II DIS 3 September 2006 USD 39 075 000 733 %* 2007
16 Japan Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 47 340 000 49 %* 2007
17 NFC Offshore DIS 4 April 2006 USD 74 500 000 477 % 2007
18 NFC Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 46 046 000 26 %* 2007
19 Northern Offshore DIS 2 November 2006 USD 39 000 000 153 % 2007
20 Ross Cape DIS 1 October 2004 USD 17 350 000 41 % 2007
21 Global Cable KS 2 June 2005 USD 12 320 000 28 % 2009
22 Semakau Producer DIS 1 July 2008 USD 20 400 000 19 % 2009
23 Eidsiva Trucker KS 1 February 2005 EUR 10 900 000 -100 %* 2010
24 NFC AHTS Limited 2 March 2008 USD 70 520 000 -5 %* 2010
25 Scandinavian Bulkers KS 5 September 2005 EUR 28 926 000 0 % 2010
26 Bergshav Chemical KS 2 July 2005 EUR 20 470 000 -48 %* 2011
27 European Venture II DIS 1 July 2007 USD 11 370 000 20 % 2011
28 JBUS Offshore DIS 2 September 2008 USD 60 000 000 3 % 2011
29 Mountbatten Offshore DIS 2 May 2008 USD 109 134 000 -8 %* 2011
30 Norwegian Offshore DIS 4 April 2007 USD 65 470 000 0 % 2011
31 Oceanlink Offshore DIS 1 May 2006 USD 13 250 000 16 % 2011
32 Oceanlink Offshore II DIS 1 August 2006 USD 12 000 000 35 % 2011
33 Pantheon Chemical DIS 1 November 2007 EUR 31 000 000 N/A 2011
34 Ross Chemical IV DIS 2 November 2007 USD 53 000 000 N/A 2011
35 SBS Tempest KS 1 December 2005 NOK 134 300 000 30 % 2011
36 Shanghai Bulker DIS 1 August 2010 USD 9 000 000 55 % 2011
37 Tioman Offshore DIS 1 July 2007 USD 51 150 000 10 % 2011
38 Volstad Supply I KS 1 August 2005 NOK 262 620 000 27 % 2011
39 Volstad Supply II KS 1 November 2005 NOK 262 620 000 38 % 2011
40 Western Chemical KS 3 July 2006 EUR 32 775 000 -60 %* 2011
41 Edda Accommodation DIS 1 December 2008 EUR 126 500 000 N/A 2012
42 Multipurpose Bulkers DIS 4 December 2005 EUR 27 145 000 N/A 2012
43 Norwegian Shipping DIS 1 April 2005 USD 19 200 000 15 % 2012
44 Oceanlink Reefer III DIS 1 September 2008 USD 20 200 000 N/A 2012
45 Agder Ocean Reefer II DIS 2 November 2006 USD 19 500 000 N/A 2013
46 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 3 November 2005 USD 27 750 000 N/A 2013
47 Cement Ship II DIS 1 November 2005 USD 19 800 000 19 % 2013
48 Jimbaran DIS 1 September 2008 USD 54 200 000 -100 %* 2013
49 Norwegian Shipping II DIS 1 January 2006 USD 8 000 000 8 % 2013
50 Oceanlink Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 28 500 000 N/A 2013
51 Raffles Offshore DIS 1 March 2007 USD 45 945 000 16 % 2013
52 Vestland Marine PSV DIS 1 April 2012 USD 1 650 000 30 % 2013
53 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 7 October 2008 USD 53 500 000 -67 %* 2014
54 Atlantic Guardian DIS 1 February 2007 USD 42 880 000 N/A 2014
55 Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 May 2008 USD 42 650 000 17 % 2014
56 Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 August 2007 USD 43 600 000 17 % 2014
57 European Venture III DIS 1 July 2008 USD 17 720 000 24 % 2014
58 Global Cable II DIS 2 December 2006 USD 45 400 000 21 % 2014
59 Marineline Chemical DIS 3 February 2008 USD 79 850 000 -100 %* 2014
60 Med Ethylene DIS 2 May 2007 USD 27 875 000 4 % 2014
61 Mount Faber KS 4 April 2005 USD 80 900 000 32 % 2014
62 Norwegian Product DIS 2 November 2006 USD 32 865 000 3 % 2014
63 Panda Chemical Oil DIS 1 June 2006 USD 19 545 000 -53 %* 2014
64 SBS Torrent KS 1 December 2005 NOK 141 175 000 23 % 2014
65 SBS Typhoon KS 1 January 2006 NOK 167 050 000 21 % 2014
66 RTS Panamax DIS 1 April 2007 USD 24 000 000 N/A 2014
67 Feeder Container Vessel DIS 1 May 2013 USD 4 300 000 23 % 2015
68 Northern Supply DIS 2 May 2011 USD 88 000 000 N/A 2015
69 Octavian Bulker DIS 1 July 2009 USD 37 400 000 -29 % 2015
70 Singapore Supply DIS 1 March 2012 USD 42 700 000 N/A 2015
71 Ullswater Subsea DIS 1 May 2007 USD 48 820 000 N/A 2015
72 DSV Alliance DIS 1 June 2014 USD 21 500 000 -100 %* 2016
73 Orchard Offshore DIS 4 March 2007 USD 43 800 000 18 % 2016
74 Singapore Offshore DIS 5 August 2006 USD 129 100 000 18 % 2016
75 Vestland Marine Seismic DIS 1 February 2014 USD 1 550 000 7 % 2016
75 Vessels financed and sold: 128 USD/EUR 1:1 (USD/NOK 8.20): ~$3 000 000 000
*Cash-on-cash return
25
Existing Projects & Segment
Offshore # Total project price
European Venture DIS 2 USD 46 325 000
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS 3 USD 125 269 250
Sentosa Offshore DIS 1 USD 46 350 000
Sudong Offshore DIS 1 USD 26 000 000
Aberdeen Offshore DIS 1 USD 71 464 000
8
Tankers #
Panda Chemical II DIS 1 USD 4 315 000
Southern Chemical DIS 2 EUR 88 200 000
Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS 1 USD 32 750 000
Seminyak DIS 2 USD 108 963 000
Bergshav Aframax AS 1 USD 17 500 000
Saragol Tankers 1 DIS 1 USD 56 000 000
Saragol Tankers 2 DIS 1 USD 49 000 000
Lesley Product DIS 1 USD 2 355 000
Henrietta Product DIS 1 USD 10 400 000
11
Drybulk #
Asian Bulkers DIS 3 USD 48 000 000
Golden Kamsar DIS 1 USD 67 294 000
Industrial Shipping DIS 6 EUR 34 000 000
10
Containers #
Feeder Container II DIS 2 USD 15 500 000
High Yield Shipping DIS 1 USD 6 000 000
Homborsund Container DIS 1 USD 4 750 000
4
Other #
MS Nordstjernen DIS 1 NOK 8 000 000
Platou Shipinvest I DIS USD
1
Total $/euro 1:1 1 049 035 250
Projects 22
Vessels 34
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
26
Projects' estimated returns
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Clarksons Platou Project Finance Secondhand Opportunities Estimated Returns
Project Established
Paid in
Capital
Accumulated
Dividends
Accumulated in %
of Paid in Capital
Estimated Share
Price per 1%
Estimated
IRR Seller
Estimated
IRR Buyer
Aberdeen Offshore DIS November 1, 2014 USD 7 000 000 N/A 0 % $ 120 000 4,12 % 11,32 %
Bergshav Aframax February 20, 2014 USD 6 500 000 3 200 000 49 % $ 40 000 15,63 % 12,54 %
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS May 1, 2008 USD 29 269 250 21 250 000 73 % $ 280 000 10,82 % 20,19 %
Dongguan Chemical Tankers December 1, 2007 USD 7 150 000 4 700 000 66 % $ 48 000 4,49 % 20,63 %
European Venture DIS April 1, 2008 USD 9 965 000 14 090 000 141 % $ 40 000 10,17 % 23,38 %
Feeder Container DIS May 1, 2013 USD 4 300 000 6 560 000 153 % $ 57 000 20,70 % SOLD
Feeder Container II DIS September 15, 2015 USD 15 525 000 650 000 4 % $ 145 000 -3,30 % 11,60 %
Golden Kamsar DIS August 1, 2008 USD 23 694 000 8 500 000 36 % $ 150 000 0,00 % 20,26 %
Henrietta Product DIS June 30, 2015 USD 8 400 000 1 700 000 20 % $ 82 000 12,60 % 10,30 %
High Yield Shipping DIS January 1, 2014 USD 6 000 000 1 055 000 18 % $ 59 000 8,80 % 10,10 %
Homborsund Container DIS June 30, 2015 USD 4 750 000 N/A 0 % $ 50 000 2,04 % 15,53 %
Industrial Shipping DIS May 1, 2012 USD 5 750 000 355 515 6 % € 40 000 -29,90 % 12,72 %
Lesley Product DIS October 1, 2014 USD 2 350 000 610 000 26 % $ 23 500 17,47 % 12,20 %
Nordstjernen November 23, 2012 NOK 6 000 000 3 000 000 50 % kr 86 000 10,00 % 10,00 %
Octavian Bulkers DIS September 1, 2010 USD 16 000 000 14 525 000 91 % $ 130 250 -2,07 % SOLD
Orchard Offshore DIS March 1, 2007 USD 7 800 000 19 842 500 254 % $ 14 500 18,07 % SOLD
Panda Chemical II DIS November 1, 2013 USD 1 815 000 N/A 0 % $ 25 000 13,19 % 15,78 %
Saragol Tankers I DIS June 1, 2007 USD 18 500 000 N/A N/A $ 185 000 N/A 21,00 %
Saragol Tankers II DIS December 1, 2007 USD 26 000 000 N/A N/A $ 260 000 N/A 20,90 %
Seminyak DIS September 1, 2008 USD 36 168 000 N/A 0 % $ 60 000 N/A Selling
Sentosa Offshore DIS July 1, 2007 USD 8 300 000 14 450 000 174 % $ 28 000 15,09 % 24,51 %
Singapore Offshore DIS August 1, 2006 USD 7 850 000 21 118 367 269 % $ 38 000 18,56 % SOLD
Southern Chemical DIS July 1, 2007 EUR 16 350 000 1 540 000 9 % $ 60 000 -11,3 % 21,82 %
Sudong Offshore DIS October 1, 2013 USD 8 200 000 1 375 000 17 % $ 70 000 0,9 % 24,14 %
Vestland Marine Seismic DIS February 1, 2014 USD 1 550 000 1 708 000 110 % $ 11 080 6,82 % SOLD
27
Company fleet list
Clarksons Platou Project Finance Fleet List
Project Vessel Type Vessel Name
DWT/TEU/BHP/
M2
Built Yard Charter Type
Aberdeen Offshore DIS PSV FS Cygnus 750m2 2014 Simek Yard, Norway BB
Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Svenner 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC
Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Slettnes 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC
Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Svinoy 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC
Bergshav Aframax AS Aframax Tanker Stealth Berana 115000 2010 Samsung Heavy Industries TC
Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Indigo 11000 2011 Penglai Bohai Shipyard Co. Ltd. TC
Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Crimson 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea TC
Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Coral 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea Spot
Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Cyan 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea TC
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Else-Marie 10800 BHP 2009 China BB
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Anne-Christine 10801 BHP 2009 China BB
Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Mary-Ann 10802 BHP 2010 China BB
Dongguan Chem. Tankers DIS IMO II Chemical Tanker Toreach Pioneer 8200 2008 Zhejiang Haifeng Shipbuilding BB
European Venture DIS PSV GSP Queen 2 x 3978 BHP 2006 Jaya Yard, Singapore BB
European Venture DIS PSV GSP King 2 x 5440 BHP 2005 Jaya Yard, Singapore BB
Feeder Container II DIS Container Feeder Vessel MV Portofino 1700 TEU 2002 Szczecin, Poland BB
Feeder Container II DIS Container Feeder Vessel MV Ponente 1700 TEU 2002 Szczecin, Poland BB
Golden Kamsar DIS Kamsarmax Golden Eclipse 79600 2010 Jinhaiwan Shipyard, China BB
Henrietta Product DIS Product Tanker Henrietta PG 9847 2001 Frisian Shyd, Netherlands BB
High Yield Shipping DIS Container Feeder Vessel MSC Positano 2300 TEU 2003 Daewoo, South Korea BB
Homborsund Container DIS Containership Dolphin Strait 1100 TEU 2003 CSC Jinling, China TC
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transforza 4117 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transsonoro 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transrisoluto 4145 1997 Bodewes Volharding B.V Netherland BB
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transvolante 4117 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Translontano 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB
Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transdistinto 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB
Lesley Product DIS Product Tanker Lesley PG 6249 1998 Appledore Shipbuilders, UK BB
MS Nordstjernen DIS Veteran Passenger Ship MS Nordstjernen 570 1956 Blohm & Voss, Germany BB
Panda Chemical II DIS Product Tanker Panda PG 6725 2004 Sedef Shipyard/ Istanbul BB
Saragol Tankers 1 DIS Product Tanker LR MV Luengo 73626 2007 New Century Shipbuilding Co. BB
Saragol Tankers 2 DIS Product & Crude Oil Tanker MT Mucua 114000 2008 New Times Shipbuilding BB
Seminyak DIS Chemical Tanker MT Sira 19998 2008 Japan TC
Seminyak DIS Chemical Tanker MT Simoa 40354 2004 Korea TC
Sentosa Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Sandefjord 5000 BHP 2009 Malaysia/China BB
Southern Chemical DIS Chemical Tanker Alicudi M 40083 2004 Korea BB
Southern Chemical DIS Chemical Tanker Lipari M 3400 2002 Italy BB
Sudong Offshore DIS AHTS Lewek Swan 12240 BHP 2005 Pan United, Singapore BB
CIT-Grieg Dry bulk vessel Star Lygra 50741 2013 Hyundai Mipo BB
CIT-Grieg Dry bulk vessel Star Minerva 50741 2008 Oshima SB BB
CIT-Thor Magni Seismic Support Vessel Thor Magni 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB
CIT-Thor Modi Seismic Support Vessel Thor Modi 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB
CIT-Thor Frigg Seismic Support Vessel Thor Frigg 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB
CIT-Thor Freyja Seismic Support Vessel Thor Freyja 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
This Market Report has been prepared by Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS (”CPPF”).The
information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith.
Although CPPF has endeavoured to present a consistent and correct picture of the projects, CPPF can
not guarantee or be held financially or legally responsible for the accuracy, completeness or
correctness of the information contained in this report.
Please note that the estimates shown are based on estimates made by CPPF. The estimates are based
on fair assumptions supported by objective data. The estimates are subject to risks, uncertainties and
other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development.
Included in this report are various “forward-looking-statement”, including statements regarding CPPF
or others intent, opinions, belief or current expectations of the projects with respect to (A) The target
market, (B) evaluation of the companies' markets, competition and competitive position, (C) trends and
market movements which may be expressed or implied by financial or other information or statements
herein. Any reference to past performance or forward-looking-statements should not be used as a
reliable indicator of future performance or future yield/return.
This Market Report and its contents is the property of CPPS and CPPF and can not be distributed to
any other party without the prior written consent of CPPS or CPPF.
The projects
29
KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Eva Lise Bjerke
THE VESSEL(S)
COMMERCIAL DETAILS
INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE
CASHFLOW FORECASTS
BALANCE 30.06.2016
COMMENTS
FINANCING
Established: October 2014 Estimated share value per 1 % 120,000
Paid in capital: USD 17,000,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A
Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 11.32%
Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : 4.12%
Estimated Expiry: Q4 2024 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% 12,500
Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% 2,200
Aberdeen offshore dis
Vessel(s) name: FS CYGNUS
Type: PSV UT755 LC
DWT: 3,150
Yard: SIMEK, Flekkefjord, Norway
Built: November 2014
Class: DNV GL
Flag: British
Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS
Disponent owner: OMP Management AS
Project price: USD 34,800,000
Paid in capital: USD 17,000,000
Uncalled capital: USD 0
Bareboat charterer: Fletcher Shipping Ltd.
Commencement of charter: 14 November 2014
Expiry of charter: 13 November 2021
Daily bareboat rate: USD 11,246/d
Estimated Residual: USD 26,000,000
Estimated IRR: 14%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Operating revenue 2,145,000 546,500 859,000 5,519,000 5,105,000
Operating expenses -657,000 -160,000 -160,000 -163,000 -165,000
Net operating cashflow 1,488,000 344,000 699,000 5,356,000 4,943,000
Purchase/Sale of vessel 0 0 0 0 0
Interest earned 0 0 0 0 1,027,000
Interest expenses -703,000 -704,000 -718,000 -695,000 -363,000
Paid in capital 0 0 0 0 0
Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -1,576,000 -393,000 0 -3,754,000 -1,289,000
Net financial items -2,279,000 -1,097,000 -718,000 -4,449,000 -625,000
Net projected cash flow 791,000 -753,000 -19,000 907,000 4,318,000
Estimated dividend 0 0 0 0 -4,229,000
Cash USD 350,000
Implicit vessel value USD 24,970,000
Accounts Receivable USD 3,721,000
Total assets USD 29,041,000
Outstanding debt USD 16,941,000
Short term payables USD 100,000
Total outstanding debt USD 17,041,000
Estimated project value USD 12,000,000
The company aquired the newbuilding, FS Cygnus, on 14 November 2014.
The vessel is fixed on a 7 year bareboat charter contract to Fletcher Shipping
Ltd. After a restructuring in August 2015 the new bareboat charterer is
Fletcher Supply Ships Ltd. In the restructuring agreement, the bareboat hire
is paid on a pay-as-you-earn arrangement. The vessel is currently on T/C to
Enquest.
Mortgage loan: 18 911 140
Balloon: 11 031 498
Term: 5 years
Quarterly instalments: 393 982
Interest: LIBOR + margin of 2.95 %
*Assuming refinancing after 5 years , 50% of loan is fixed at an
interest of 1.77%
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
30
KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Erik Kristian Andresen
THE VESSEL(S)
COMMERCIAL DETAILS
INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE
CASHFLOW FORECASTS
BALANCE 30.06.2016
COMMENTS
FINANCING
Established: October 2007 Estimated share value per 1 % N/A
Paid in capital: USD 48,000,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A
Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : N/A
Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : N/A
Estimated Expiry: N/A Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A
Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A
Asian Bulkers dis
Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS
Disponent owner: Scantank AS
Project price: USD 123,000,000
Paid in capital: USD 48,000,000
Uncalled capital: USD 0
Bareboat charterer: N/A
Pool Operator: Klaveness Pool
Expiry of charter: N/A
Daily bareboat rate: USD N/A
Estimated Residual: USD 26,000,000
Estimated IRR: 14%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Operating revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Operating expenses
Net operating cashflow
Purchase/Sale of vessel
Interest earned
Interest expenses
Paid in capital
Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt
Net financial items
Net projected cash flow
Estimated dividend
Cash USD N/A
Implicit vessel value USD
Accounts Receivable USD
Total assets USD
Outstanding debt USD
Short term payables USD
Total outstanding debt USD
Estimated project value USD
All vessels operating in the Klaveness pool. Drydocked in 2015.
Mortgage loan: 86,100,000
Balloon: 63,000,000
Term: 5 years
Quarterly instalments: 1,440,000
Interest: Floating, 2.23% incl. Margin
Vessel(s) name: MV Svenner MV Slettnes MV Svinoy
Type:
Supramax
Bulker
Supramax
Bulker
Supramax
Bulker
DWT: 58,000 58,000 58,000
Yard: Dayang, China Dayang, China Dayang, China
Built: 2010 2010 2010
Class: BV BV BV
Flag: Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl.
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
31
KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Axel M. Aas, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen
THE VESSEL(S)
COMMERCIAL DETAILS
INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE
CASHFLOW FORECASTS
BALANCE 30.06.2016
COMMENTS
FINANCING
Established: February 2015 Estimated share value per 1 % USD 40,000
Paid in capital: USD 6,500,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A
Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 12.29%
Accumulated dividends: USD 3,800,000 Estimated IRR Seller : 15.63%
Estimated Expiry: Q2 2018 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A
Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A
Bergshav Aframax AS
Vessel(s) name: STEALTH BERANA
Type: Aframax Tanker
DWT: 115,897
Yard: Samsung HI, South Korea
Built: 2010
Class: DNV GL
Flag: Malta
Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS
Disponent owner: Bergshav Management AS
Project price: USD 6,500,000
Paid in capital: USD 6,500,000
Uncalled capital: USD 0
T/C charterer: Phillips 66
Commencement of charter: October 2015
Daily BB rate:: USD 12,900
Daily T/C rate: USD 25,150
Estimated Residual: Bareboat
Estimated IRR: 73%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Operating revenue 3,286,000 8,745,000 8,721,000 2,287,000
Operating expenses -4,384,000 -7,382,000 -7,580,000 -1,935,000
Net operating cashflow -1,099,000 1,362,000 1,141,000 351,000
Purchase/Sale of vessel - - - -
Interest earned - - - -
Interest expenses 6,500,000 - - -
Paid in capital -141,000 141,000 - -
Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -1,821,000 - - 1,821,000
Net financial items 4,538,000 141,000 - 1,821,000
Net projected cash flow 3,440,000 1,503,000 1,141,000 2,172,000
Estimated dividend 3,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 2,656,000
Bergshav Aframax AS has chartered in one Aframax Tanker on 32
months bareboat charter. The vessel is fixed on TC to Philips 66 for the
remaining bareboat period.
The vessel will be redelivered to owners at the end of the time charter.
Mortgage loan: 100% Equity
Balloon:
Term:
Quarterly instalments:
Interest:
Cash USD 409,000
Implicit vessel value USD 3,591,000
Total assets USD 4,000,000
Outstanding debt USD -
Short term payables USD -
Total outstanding debt USD -
Estimated project value USD 4,000,000
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
32
KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen
THE VESSEL(S)
COMMERCIAL DETAILS
INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE
CASHFLOW FORECASTS
BALANCE 30.06.2016
COMMENTS
FINANCING
Established: May 2008 Estimated share value per 1 % USD 280,000
Paid in capital: USD 29,269,250 Last reported sale pr 1 % USD 330,000
Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 20.19%
Accumulated dividends: USD 21,250,000 Estimated IRR Seller : 10.82%
Estimated Expiry: Q4 2020 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% 118,000
Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% 9,400
Bukit timah offshore dis
Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS
Disponent owner: OMP Management AS
Project price: USD 125,269,250
Paid in capital: USD 29,269,250
Uncalled capital: USD 0
Bareboat charterer: Southsea Mar. guaranteed by Swiber
Commencement of charter: August 2009 – September 2010
Expiry of charter: August 2019 – September 2020
Daily BB rate: USD 3x 15,850
Estimated Residual: USD 60,000,000
Estimated IRR: 15%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Operating revenue 17,356,000 17,403,000 17,356,000 17,356,000 15,343,000
Operating expenses -279,000 -272,000 -275,000 -278,000 -281,000
Net operating cashflow 17,077,000 17,131,000 17,081,000 17,078,000 15,062,000
Purchase/Sale of vessel - - - - 16,250,000
Interest earned 5,000 - - - 70,000
Interest expenses -5,066,000 -4,547,000 -3,854,000 -3,184,000 -2,395,000
Paid in capital - - - - -
Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -7,700,000 -7,950,000 -7,950,000 -7,950,000 -16,038,000
Net financial items -12,761,000 -12,497,000 -11,804,000 -11,134,000 -2,113,000
Net projected cash flow 4,315,000 4,634,000 5,277,000 5,944,000 12,949,000
Estimated dividend - - 16,600,000 6,100,000 13,000,000
The charterer has purchase options from year 5 to year 10. Hire is being paid,
but the bank has restricted dividend payments, which has resulted in a cash
position of about USD 10m.
Mortgage loan: 96,000,000
Balloon: 20,250,000
Seller's credit 6,000,000
Term: 10 Years
Quarterly instalments: USD 1,987,500
Mortgage Interest: 8.3213% Incl. 3.625% margin
Interest Seller's Credit 3.50%
Vessel(s) name:
Swiber
Anne-Christine
Swiber
Mary-Ann
Swiber
Else-Marie
Type: AHTS AHTS AHTS
BHP: 10,800 10,800 10,800
Yard: China China China
Built: 2009 2010 2009
Class: ABS ABS ABS
Flag: Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl.
Cash USD 10,600,000
Implicit vessel value USD 74,609,000
Total assets USD 85,209,000
Outstanding debt USD 56,559,000
Short term payables USD 650,000
Total outstanding debt USD 57,209,000
Estimated project value USD 28,000,000
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
33
KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen
THE VESSEL(S)
COMMERCIAL DETAILS
INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE
CASHFLOW FORECASTS
BALANCE 30.06.2016
COMMENTS
FINANCING
Established: May 2014 Estimated share value per 1 % N/A
Paid in capital: USD 49 000 000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A
Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : N/A
Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : N/A
Estimated Expiry: N/A Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A
Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A
CIT-Grieg
Vessel(s) name: Star Lygra Star Minerva
Type:
Open-Hatch Bulk
Carrier
Open-Hatch Bulk
Carrier
DWT: 50,700 49,955
Yard: Hyundai Mipo, Korea Oshima SB
Built: 2013 2008
Class: ABS DNV GL
Flag: Cyprus Marshall Isl.
Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS
Disponent owner:
Project price: USD
Paid in capital: USD
Uncalled capital: USD
Bareboat charterer: Grieg Shipping II AS
Commencement of charter:
Expiry of charter:
Daily BB rate: USD
Estimated Residual: N/A
Estimated IRR: N/A
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Operating revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Operating expenses
Net operating cashflow
Purchase/Sale of vessel
Interest earned
Interest expenses
Paid in capital
Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt
Net financial items
Net projected cash flow
Estimated dividend
Project financed in cooperation with CIT.
Mortgage loan: N/A
Balloon:
Term:
Quarterly instalments:
Interest:
Cash USD N/A
Implicit vessel value USD
Total assets USD
Outstanding debt USD
Short term payables USD
Total outstanding debt USD
Estimated project value USD
MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016

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Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016

  • 1. Market Report Shipping & Offshore June 2016
  • 2. PART I – THE MARKET 03 Prologue 07 The Project Environment 10 Offshore Freefall 14 The Oil Market 17 The Tanker Market 19 The Dry Market 21 Projects Established 24 Projects Sold 25 Current Projects 26 Projects Estimated Returns 27 Fleet List 2016 PART II – THE PROJECTS 29 Aberdeen Offshore DIS 30 Asian Bulkers DIS 31 Bergshav Aframax AS 32 Bukit Timah Offshore DIS 33 CIT Grieg 34 CIT Thor 35 Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS 36 European Venture DIS TABLE OF CONTENTS 37 Feeder Container Vessel DIS 38 Feeder Container II DIS 39 Golden Kamsar DIS 40 Henrietta Product DIS 41 High Yield Shipping DIS 42 Homborsund Container DIS 43 Industrial Shipping DIS 44 Lesley Product DIS 45 MS Nordstjernen DIS 46 Octavian Bulker DIS 47 Orchard Offshore DIS 48 Panda Chemical II DIS 49 Saragol Tankers 1 DIS 50 Saragol Tankers 2 DIS 51 Seminyak DIS 52 Sentosa Offshore DIS 53 Singapore Offshore DIS 54 Southern Chemical DIS 55 Sudong Offshore DIS 56 Vestland Marine Seismic DIS 57 Platou Shipinvest I DIS 59 Head Office & Contacts
  • 3. Dear Investors and Business Associates, During our 12 years in business, the project finance market has never been more challenging. We are looking for segments within the shipping and offshore industry that are generating a return on the investment that will attract investors to place their equity. The question is; Do they exist at all today? The traditional sale/leaseback project with owners selling their second hand vessels to free up cash and expand their business is hard to find. We need a charter market that can generate a positive cashflow to the shipowner after deducting financial and operating costs. At the same time, the investors need to be comfortable with the counterparty risk and the residual value exposure at the end of the charter, unless there is a put option/purchase obligation with a bankable counterpart. Our original business model is very flexible. During our years in business, we have financed long term and medium term bareboat lease, long term, medium term and short term time charters in addition to newbuilding and second hand asset plays. The sources of funds have been a mix of equity and debt finance, ranging from highly leveraged deals (90%+) to 100% equity finance. There are no restrictions on type or age of the assets and the size of investment has varied from USD 1 million up to USD 150 million in a single project. In order to keep the fixed funding cost competitive, we have also introduced various models including profit split on earnings and future asset values. Our team of corporate managers establish the buying/owning company and keep the investors and banks well informed with financial accounts and project updates. We have a sales team that follow up the projects with a liquid second hand market for buying and selling shares in the existing projects. We also make use of our large in-house network of shipbrokers to source new deals and sell existing projects when the charter contracts expires. In addition, we have access to the worlds largest research databases and analysis within the shipping and offshore industry. If we briefly look into the different shipping and offshore segments today, we see these challenges and opportunities. Dry Bulk A shrinking orderbook, high scrapping levels, horrible charter market and historically low ship values. Any sale/leaseback structure will generate an operating loss to the charterer unless the vessels have been fixed on a long term time charter contract prior to the slowdown in 2014. Many dry bulk owners are restructuring their debt and the counter party risk is high. The timing for asset play investments financed with 100% equity or possibly a soft loan is likely to be good. A reduced net fleet growth will turn the market sooner rather than later. 3 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE Prologue Tankers A positive spot market in the crude sector. However, difficult to find long term time charters at attractive levels. The second hand values for 5-15 year old vessels have dropped 20-25% during the last 6 months, creating “asset play” opportunities with a good cashflow in the short term. We are able to finance 80-90% of the asset value with long term bareboat charter at a low fixed bareboat rate with a profit split element. Container vessels Similar situation as we see in the dry bulk market. A charter market that just cover operating costs and second hand values 30-50% below newbuilding parity. A large orderbook in the ultra large segment creates more challenges to the liner operators, but a shrinking orderbook in the feeder segment could open up for “asset play” opportunities. Many shipping banks are still struggling with distressed container fleets but some deals with soft loan structures at high debt levels are possible to develop. The fresh cash injections are only covering highly needed working capital and although the risk is high, the return could be very attractive if the timing is right. Offshore Opportunities - yes, but is the timing right yet? Still a large orderbook, many vessels laid up, a modern fleet with low scrapping numbers, and a “dead” charter market. Many offshore owners are looking for new sources of funds and many opportunity funds are looking for distressed offshore deals. However, most of the financial challenges have so far been sorted out between the senior lenders/bond holders and the owners. We are the largest offshore broker in the world and we talk to all the players in the market. We have already been proposed some distressed vessels at very low prices and expect to present some “special opportunities” in the near future. Other shipping segments We look at all floating assets, including cruise, ferries, RORO, cement, car carriers and chemical tankers. These are seen as industrial shipping segments with less cyclical markets. We will continue to monitor all opportunities and hope to see more activity in the coming months. If you are a shipowner looking for a flexible funding structure or you are an investor looking for direct investments in the shipping and offshore industry, we hope to serve you both with good solutions that creates value for both parties. In the meantime, we wish you all a good summer vacation. Kind regards, Clarksons Platou Project Finance
  • 4. CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS (former RS Platou Finans AS) has since its inception in 2004 become one of the world’s major project finance companies that specialize in shipping and offshore related financial schemes in the interest of both shipowners and financial investors. The main objective is to identify attractive investment opportunities, which involve the purchase of shipping and offshore related assets along with secured employment, as well as present asset play cases when the timing is optimal. The strength of Clarksons Platou Project Finance lies not only with the highly qualified staff, but also with the vast shipping related resources available within the Clarksons Platou Group. Clarksons Platou Project Finance is an independent company within the Clarksons Platou Group utilizing the full potential of having close contact with shipbrokers, shipowners, ship managers, bankers, lawyers and consultants worldwide. CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT SALES In late 2014, Clarksons Platou Project Finance established a new division designated to sourcing equity and increasing liquidity of project shares in the second hand market. The new focus on sales will allow us to further increase our project activity and deal size. The team consists of three brokers and a compliance officer. Increasing the liquidity in the second hand market will provide added value to our existing investors and opportunities for new investors to enter existing projects. CLARKSONS PLATOU INVESTOR SERVICES Clarksons Platou Investor Services AS is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Clarksons Platou Project Finance, and assists private investors with establishing companies and business management. The wide scope of services offered include establishment and incorporation of AS, KS, ANS and DIS, accounting, and tax documentation, remittance and secretarial assistance. Clarksons Platou Investor Services has close connections with numerous well-known and respected companies and establishments such as lawyers, banks and chartered accountants of whom these services can be utilized by investors if so wished. Customers of Clarksons Platou Investor Services will, as per other investors, have access to interesting investment projects as proposed by Clarksons Platou Project Sales. The investors will establish a personal business- relationship with the assigned accountant so that they can request prompt assistance. CLARKSONS PLATOU REAL ESTATE Clarksons Platou Real Estate AS is one of the leading players within Norwegian real estate project finance. The company is a fully integrated real estate corporate finance house specialized in sourcing, structuring and facilitating commercial real estate. The company’s geographical focus is on the Norwegian and Swedish real estate market. The company’s core actives are:  Origination of interesting financial estate opportunities  Structuring and restructuring of real estate projects  Structuring of development and opportunistic projects  Project financing of real estate projects  Corporate finance assisting within the commercial sector  Asset management CLARKSONS PLATOU PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Clarksons Platou Property Management AS is a professional manager and developer of industrial and commercial real estate. The company offers highly qualified services within all types of management for sophisticated real estate investors, tenants and suppliers. The company’s main focus is to contribute to value creation for the investors and the property itself by being hands-on throughout the lifespan of the investment. The company’s core activities are:  Technical management  Tenant relationship management  Letting and commercial management  Corporate management and reporting  Building operations and maintenance  Real estate development 4 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 5. 5 CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE Project Sales Project finance Investor ser. LARS GJERDE Head of Sales STIAN SKAUG-PAULSEN Senior Broker ANDREAS W. BANG Broker AXEL MOLTZAU AAS Joint Managing Partner CHRIS. W. SVENSSON Joint Managing Partner TRULS WIESE KOLSTAD Project Broker HÅKON FREDERIC RØSAKER Project Broker TROND HAMRE Senior Partner LARS GJØRVAD Head of Compliance BENJAMIN RYENG-HANSEN Managing Director HEIDI MEYER WESTBY Office manager ERIK KRISTIAN ANDRESEN Corporate Manager ELISABETH RELBO Secretary EVA LISE BJERKE Corporate Manager KRISTIN VOLLAN Managing Director JULIE MELGAARD RANVIG Accountant MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 6. Disclaimer - Important Information The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by Clarksons Platou AS ("Clarksons Platou") for general information purposes. The Information is based solely on publicly available information and is drawn from Clarksons Platou's database and other sources. Clarksons Platou advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons Platou's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases or information services of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons Platous' database; (iii ) whilst Clarksons Platou has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons Platou and its 'connected persons', and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. The Information is provided on "as is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk. The opinions and estimates contained herein represent the view and judgment as of the dates specified (and in absence of such, as of the date of the report), and are subject to change without notice. Delivery of this report shall not create any implication that Clarksons Platou assumes any obligation to update or correct the Information. This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons Platou. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Platou, its ‘connected persons’ and/or its licensors. To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the Information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. These exclusions do not apply to the liability of Clarksons Platou and its ‘connected persons’ for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in relation to Clarksons Platou, its ultimate holding company, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective shareholders, directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Norwegian law.
  • 7. 25 % 34 % 13 % 3 % 25 % Fleet per segment Offshore Tankers Container Other Bulk Bareboat 90 % Timecharter 10 % Total Projects By Employment 7 Project Finance: Flexible capital in a challenging market Those who have followed the shipping industry for a while, know how much can happen over the course of a year. This is certainly true since our last report was published. Since then, we have seen the Baltic Dry Index fall to its lowest historical level since 1985, and we have seen the number of offshore vessels in layup increase to about 400(!) vessels worldwide. Currently, of all of the major commodity shipping segments, tankers seem to be the only segment that is able to generate a sufficent cashflow to cover both operating expenses and financial costs. Furthermore, the negative development in earnings and the decline in vessel values, has created a major problem for traditional shipping banks around the world. In additon to major restructurings and defaults on loans, the banks have more or less closed their doors for new business, with the exception of top-tier clients, and isloated projects with long timecharters. The absence of traditional bank finance in todays market has made new transactions more lengthy, uncertain and challenging. At the same time the reduced access to capital has led to few newbuildings being ordered, and more focus on second hand market transactions, where Greek, Norwegian and Chinese cash buyers have been very active. On the positive side, with market conditions at the lowest levels seen in 15-30 years we see that there is a record number of vessels scrapped, which is likely to continue as owners are not able to operate vessels with a profit. The combination of increased scrapping and record low newbuilding activity will hopefully have a normalising effect on the balance of the shipping markets. Since Februrary this year we have seen the dry-bulk market bottom out and return to a level just around OPEX. In today's market, we see that the advantage of the Norwegian KS market/Project Finance, is that the equity can be more flexible and more creative than traditional debt finance. For example, recent developments shows that private equity is entering the market offering debt finance at slightly higher margins and with profit-sharing arrangements. This is an interesting development, and a much needed source of capital for shipowners in today's depressing market. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 8. 8 This year we have seen that the Norwegian KS market has been less active than in 2014/2015. The reason for this has not been a lack of investor interest and equity available, but rather the challenge of finding attractive investment projects in a very poor market. A few containership projects have been placed in the Norwegian KS market, but other than this there has been little activity. While many have been trying to do drybulk projects, it has been difficult to purchase quality Japanese built vessels, as there are sometimes in excess of 20 cash-buyers waiting in line to inspect and make offers. Although the first half of 2016 has been a period of with low activity in the Project Finance market, we believe the second half of the year will be more active as we see an increase in dealflow and quality projects before the summer. Clarksons Platou Project Finance currently has Corporate Management on 21 shipping projects today. Of these 90% of the projects are on bareboat charter, while the remaining 10% are on timecharter. This is a diversified portfolio of crude & product tankers, chemical tankers, offshore and containerships. We have completed/sold 7 shipping projects this year. Of the 7 project sold, 4 generated an IRR between 6-50% p.a. over the investment period. Given the current market situation, this is a very satisfactory performance. There are now 4 employees in the Clarksons Platou Project Sales working on primary and secondary sales of shares in new and existing projects. So far this year, we have seen an increase in number of transactions in the second hand market, and established a bi-monthly circulation of second hand market activity to inform investors of what is for sale and buying interest in the existing projects. The Project Sales Department has also worked on organizing shipping and offshore seminars for our investors during the course of the last year, and this is something we will continue to focus on going forward. We look forward to a more active project finance market in the second half of 2016 and hope that the shipping markets will improve over the summer. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE $ 0 $ 500 $ 1 000 $ 1 500 $ 2 000 $ 2 500 $ 3 000 $ 3 500 $ 4 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Millions Summary KS-houses 2005 - 2015 (Fearnleys, NRP, Pareto, Clarksons Platou) Total Project Price Total Paid in Capital Total Uncalled Capital
  • 9.
  • 10. Overview The oil price has dropped significantly since the second half of 2014, after three years above USD 100/bbl. Oil companies were overspending even at USD ~100/bbl and were targeting spending cuts already late 2013/start of 2014, before the oil price started sliding. E&P-spending (topline for oil services) has traditionally trailed the oil price. E&P spending in 2015 declined 20-25%, and a further 5-15% is expected for 2016. Consensus seems to believe that 2017 will be the final year with cuts, and that it will flatten out before increasing again in 2018. Legacy projects (already committed spending) are likely to prevent spending from dropping even further in 2016. At the same time, nearly all oil services sectors have seen very high growth in supply over the last couple of years, and orderbooks are still substantial compared to the current fleet. Meeting decreasing demand, the oil services industry are likely to struggle over the next 24 months. Utilization for both the Rig, OSV and Subsea space is coming down, and is likely to drop further especially in 2016. This will mean a sharp rate fall for new contracts, for most sectors likely to be close to OPEX. Also, oil companies are pushing for rate reductions on already negotiated contracts, in some cases with prolonged duration as a reward. Both new and existing contracts might be linked/indexed to the oil price development going forward. To reach acceptable rate levels, i.e. utilisation levels, one would need to see substantial lay- up/scrapping in many segments. On a global basis, floater rig count was down 23%, and the jack-ups down 20% in 2015 (November-15 vs November-14), and this trend will likely continue through 2016. 10 Offshore freefall, an analysis of the OSV market International OSV demand The decreasing global offshore activity in 2015 led to OSV demand coming down, and combined with fleet growth led to lower utilisation and lower rates. The global OSV fleet is estimated to have grown by 5.7 % percent in 2015. A further breakdown shows the PSV fleet grew close to 9% and the AHTS 4-9,999 bhp fleet (cargo work being the mainstay of this type of vessels) increased by 2.7% percent in 2015. Day rates across the globe were sharply down, with the NSEA starting the decline in H2 2014. The North Sea PSV market has remained challenging for owners in 2015 and H1 2016, with spot rates ranging between GBP 2.294-10.374,-* for 499-900m2 deck PSVs, and between GBP 2,770,- 9,077,-* for 900m2 PSVs (weekly numbers high and low). Term rates have also come down for all categories, continuing the downward trend started in H2 2014. While the spot market has been trading at/below OPEX for some time, there are signs that bids for long term work in the North Sea are getting closer to OPEX as well. The market has also seen a very low contracting level through 2015, with the number of PSV years fixed at its lowest level since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. This is clearly illustrative of a softening market, where charterers face low risk of tightening capacity, and rather prefer to fix vessels on shorter-term contracts or utilize the spot market. Therefore, the number of spot contracts has been relatively high. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 USD'000 Global PSV average term rates North Sea 500-749m2 West Africa 500-749m2 Brazil 500-750 m2 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 11. Utilization has been falling steadily since the middle of 2014. More than 80 PSV's have been laid up, and owners are increasingly willing to do so as demand outlook is still weak. We estimate PSV utilization to have decreased 26% in 2015, averaging 76% through the year. Large PSV's achieved a utilization rate of 85%, 11% down from 2014-levels, while medium-sized vessels decreased to 65% compared to 90% in 2014. The smaller vessels also achieved lower utilization, averaging 62% for the year, compared to 88% in 2014. The fleet increased with 12 vessels, or approximately 5%. The number of lay-ups is likely to increase, and in December 2015 approximately 1/3 of the fleet was in lay-up. As term contracts are at OPEX levels, and laid-up vessels are still bidding for long term contracts, we expect term rates to be flattish through 2016. Spot rates have been volatile lately, due to both the before mentioned lay-ups and at times harsher weather conditions. Term rates in the US Gulf of Mexico across the PSV vessel categories declined by an average of 39% across the year. Demand was driven by a decreasing demand as oil companies cut capex over the line. Floaters on contract rose in the US Gulf from 42 units on contract in 2014 to 41 units on contract in 2015. At the same time the Jones Act effectively blocked international vessels from entering US waters, thus limiting supply growth, as well as aggressive stacking from US owners. One market, which has seen demand coming down quite sharply, is Brazil, as both the corruption scandal and economic problems for Petrobras has led to many vessels coming off their contract. Also, the blockage of international tonnage on behalf of Brazilian flagged vessels, has led many international vessels to leave the Brazilian market, and increase supply in other regions. The floater rig count dropped by 24% in 2015, from 62 to 47 floaters. Term rates for PSV's were on average down 35%. Overall, average day rates through the year were down sharply in most regions, but with slight regional variations. OSV demand growth falling With the steep fall in oil prices and heightened capital discipline focus amongst the oil and gas companies, we expect future demand growth for OSV's to come down significantly. Demand for OSV's is driven by production support, rig support and, to some extent, offshore and subsea construction support. Continuous production support is by far the most important driver for OSV's, whereas rig support is the main driver for the AHTS segment. Rig support is anticipated to drop, thus contributing negatively. Future OSV demand needs to see the rig count increasing All segments within the offshore space are affected by the major oil companies’ increased focus on preserving cash, and with the current oil price, a limited number of projects are sanctioned. The level of fixing activity for rigs has been at a low level for a couple of years. Therefore, the backlog of the rig companies are coming down. With more than 130 JU's and more than 70 floaters under construction, utilization levels will stay low for both segments. Also, the number of rigs on contract in absolute terms is coming down over the line. As one of the most important drivers for PSV demand, this will reflect on the demand for the OSV's for the next couple of years. With a low sanctioning level of new projects, demand from construction support will be limited as well. Therefore, the demand for OSV's caused by production support (historically 50% of the demand), will be even more important than earlier, as this is likely to see limited demand cuts unless the P&A activity kicks off. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 12. The AHTS Market The North-Sea AHTS market (>10,000bhp) The North Sea AHTS market have remained challenging in 2015 and H1 2016, with spot rates typically ranging between GBP 3.850-63.505,-* for 16-19.999 BHP AHTS's, and between GBP 4,818,-66,500,-* for the largest class of AHTS's. The market for long term AHTS contracts, historically a very small market, has almost vanished this year. Term rates have also come down for all categories, continuing the downward trend started in H2 2014. The rates for this segment have also been close to OPEX for large periods throughout the year, but with more spikes than the PSV market. Utilization has come down from 71.6% to 54.8% for the medium class and from 70.8% to 53.8% for the larger vessels. More than 40 vessels have been laid-up. Usually, weather conditions have been highly important, leading to periods of unforeseen tightening of the market balance and coherent spot rate spikes. This year, the spikes have been fever, and shorter lasting. Tough times ahead Looking ahead, the North Sea AHTS market clearly appears challenging. A significant number of rigs have come off contract since H2 2015, and many more are scheduled to come off firm contracts both on the Norwegian and UK side of the North Sea through 2016. As for the rest of the world, North Atlantic fixing activity has also been depressed YTD 2016. We do not rule out the potential for further suspensions and/or early contract terminations in 2016. The strong oil price drop has reduced oil companies’ spending on exploration drilling, and we expect the number of North Sea exploration wells to come down in 2016. Sanctioning of new field developments is also likely to remain subdued as long as the oil price remains low, which will impact development drilling. Against this backdrop, we expect few contract options to be exercised, accompanied by depressed fixing activity. 12 There are also a highly limited number of new contracted rigs expected to enter the North Sea and start drilling during 2016. We see a net decline of 11 rigs on the NCS by end-16 if no new contracts are awarded, i.e. five newbuilds to start drilling, while 16 come off firm contracts. There is a potential net decline of 17 rigs on UKCS through 2016, i.e. 20 rigs coming off contracts, while three new rigs potentially starts drilling. Simultaneously, we have seen contracts being cancelled and suspended in The NSEA, by Statoil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron. Furthermore, we are seeing reduced demand for the large AHTS vessels,with Petrobras recently cancelling tenders and vessels already on contract is being cancelled. More vessels coming off contracts internationally will likely find their way to the North Sea spot market, as vessel owners have few other places to trade large AHTS vessels. Arctic campaigns (e.g. Greenland, Russia) have in the previous years absorbed significant capacity in the high-end AHTS market, but such campaigns also seem highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. The international markets for large AHTS vessels largely mirror developments in the North Sea, but are more tilted towards jack-up support, rig towage, FPSO support and offshore construction support. The same forces affecting the North Sea market is, however, expected to also impact international markets, with reduced rig activity being of particular importance. As for the North Sea, we expect utilization and rates to come down, and vessels to come off contracts. The prospects for medium-sized AHTS vessels seem the least depressed, as the renewal of the jackup fleet will continue in the period going forward. However, the larger AHTS vessels, which are mostly in service with conventionally moored floaters, may face some headwind due to a softer floater market. Smaller sized AHTS vessels are not seen to have the same demand drivers in place. These vessels are often too small, for example, to support the new and larger jackups that are being delivered. At the same time this asset class is meeting increased competition from PSVs and therefore we expect day rates to remain largely unchanged through 2016. We believe that the demand for oil services will come back first for the shallow water segments, as these typically have a lower break even cost. Also, these fields are often managed by NOC's, whom have been less aggressive in cutting investments thus far in the cycle. We are therefore somewhat more optimistic on the jack-up rigs than on the floaters going forward. When it comes to offshore regions, we are more positive towards the Middle East and the South-East Asia. The Middle East is shallow water, and dominated by the large NOC's. Also, the lifting cost here is acceptable at oil price levels around USD 50/bbl. There also seem to be somewhat more optimism in South East Asia, with long term rig tenders out in the market by oil companies wanting to use the current weak market to secure cheap rigs. Once these are fixed, long term contracts for OSV supporting these units will likely follow. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 USD'000 Global AHTS term rates Wafr 5,000 BHP WAfr 12,000 BHP WAfr 16,000 BHP Far East 5,000 BHP Far East BHP 12,000 North Sea 16,000 BHP Brazil16,000 BHP MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 13. Utilization and day rates expected to drop With demand growth expected to fall sharply and fleet growth estimated to remain high, we expect utilization and charter rates to drop further in 2016. We have already started to see this materialize, with long term charter contracts increasingly entered into at rates close to OPEX. Our estimates naturally vary somewhat across regions and vessel specifications, but with the rig count expected to come down in all areas, there are no regions where we expect positive rate development during 2016. Remaining fleet growth might be mitigated by delays The current market situation involves significant overcapacity in the OSV sector, especially for the PSV fleet. We are coming from a period of very strong fleet growth, where the majority of newbuilding orders were placed in Asia, and perhaps it’s not so strange that it’s time for a breather. Take PSVs > 1,000 dwt and AHTSs < 10,000 bhp as an example; from 2005 to 2015 we recorded the fleet grew 130 percent globally as 1770 vessels were added to the fleet(!). This is a significant amount, and tells a story of a very active newbuilding market. OSV fleet growth further looks set to remain high, with the orderbook scheduled for delivery in 2016 (and beyond) currently standing at about 450 vessels, of which 270 are PSVs and 180 are small AHTS (4,000-9,999 BHP) (Jan 2016). Compared to the existing fleet of around 3,000 OSV's, this corresponds to a continued fleet growth of roughly 15 percent. Historically, we have seen a net slippage of around 30%, which should imply that a fair share of deliveries will be pushed out in time. Increased market uncertainty across oil services, financing challenges, speculative orders and orders placed at inexperienced yards, e.g. in Asia, should also lead to some cancellations going forward, as well as deliveries being further postponed. Improving productivity as the yards in general gain more experience, combined with easing pressure along the supply chain, should to some extent counter these effects. In sum, we assume net slippage to be roughly in line with previous years, i.e. around 30 percent. Surprisingly, ordering activity for OSV newbuilds remained high throughout 2014, in spite of the market starting to come down during the second half of the year. In total, we estimate 271 OSV's to have been ordered, consisting of 191 PSVs and 80 small AHTS vessels. This implies an ordering activity roughly in line with previous years, with 290 OSVs ordered in 2013 and 273 OSVs in 2012. However, 2015 saw a much lower ordering activity, with less than 70 vessels being ordered across both OSV and AHTS. OSV focused yards prove they can win contracts for Fisheries and Aquaculture, as these segments are getting increasingly complex, with synergy effects from OSV construction. Specialized vessel projects against solid contracts and non-OSV orders help ensure some backlog for yards trying to survive the down- cycle. We do not foresee any uptick in ordering activity for next year, but one might see specific vessels being ordered against firm contracts. 13 Speculators are owners of 30-40% of the orderbook. There is reason to suspect that many of these units never will be delivered, as most of the speculators do not have either the money or the capacity to take delivery and operate these vessels. Therefore, there are a number of vessels presently ready for delivery in China, as many market players are trying to delay deliveries as far as possible. For example, we currently count 138 PSVs either ready for delivery or scheduled for delivery within the next three months, creating a depressing outlook for next year. We have already seen some Chinese yards going bankrupt, and expect more to come. With regards to resale, we recorded 8 small AHTS (4,000-7,999 bhp) and 14 medium sized PSVs (600-849 m2) in December 2014 – pretty much exactly one year ago. Today, of the same tonnage, we count more than 40 small AHTS and 50 medium sized PSVs. Total 2015 2016 2017+ In service On Order AHTS 4-7,999 BHP 123 65 53 5 1255 10 % AHTS 8-9,999 BHP 46 10 23 13 211 22 % AHTS 10-15,999 BHP 44 8 32 4 331 13 % AHTS 16-19,999 BHP 12 1 4 7 120 10 % AHTS 20,000+BHP 12 3 2 7 86 14 % A H T S T o tal 237 87 114 36 2003 12 % PSV <500 m2 23 9 14 0 412 6 % PSV 500-749 m2 77 35 42 0 533 14 % PSV 750-899 m2 99 34 62 3 189 52 % PSV 900+m2 73 22 40 11 401 18 % P SV T o tal 272 100 158 14 1535 18 % T o tal Orderbo o k 509 187 272 50 3538 14 % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1415 Y-on-Y % change Y-on-Y % change OSV Fleet Growth AHTS PSV MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 14. Overview The drop in oil prices to below $30 in Q1 should mark the low point for this cycle. Over the coming six months it should become increasingly clear that fundamentals have turned the corner and are improving. That should underpin a more sustained price recovery. The 2015 price crash has more parallels with the relatively short-lived collapse of 1998 than the prolonged depression from 1985. We do not see the market as structurally imbalanced and fundamentals have begun to respond to the price plunge. Demand growth doubled last year while supply is set to flatten this year. Despite the ballooning inventory overhang, we see long-term fundamentals as strong; Capacity utilization is very high, demand growth is decent while supply growth is slowing sharply. We expect that prices over time will reflect these changes and rise as a cyclical tightening of fundamentals gets underway. Our price forecast (Brent) is $50 for 2016, $70 for 2017 and $80 for 2018 Cyclical status and outlook; All about 1998 rather than 1985 Oil prices have a history of moving in long cycles, which makes determining the driving forces all-important. There have been five oil price collapses during the past 30 years. Two have been unambiguously demand driven; 2008 (Financial Crisis) and 1997 (Asian Crisis) one has been unambiguously supply driven; 1985 (Opec’s shift to chase higher market share via netback pricing). The 1998 decline, meanwhile, contained both higher Opec production and a weak global economy. Both of these elements have been key drivers in the latest price drop. The oil market; Surprise supplies …due to a lack of spare capacity The main parallel that we see between 1998 and today is the lack of spare capacity. In both cases, Opec spare capacity was low, below 3 mbd. In contrast, spare capacity was some 15 mbd when the cartel decided to go for higher market share, via netback pricing, in 1985. If correct, the implication is that the bottom of the current cycle should be “V”–shaped and short, rather than prolonged. Inventories are sky-high, but are not a leading indicator, contrary to E&P spending While the market evidently is in surplus at present with global oil inventories at an all-time high, this can best be described as a problem of stock and is a backward looking metric. The key determinant going forward will be the development of flows, as determined by changes in market fundamentals. Demand has already responded forcefully, growing twice as fast as expected last year. This year is seeing the start of a significant supply response. In short, we expect the market to move into deficit from the second half of the year and onwards. Not only will that begin to eat away at the inventory overhang, we expect it to also shift the market’s attention from the current “glut” and back to (lack of) spare capacity. The result, we expect, should be a significant re- pricing back into the $50-70 range which we expect will be dominant over the next two to three years. Q1 reversal all about sentiment. Q2 will be acid test for fundamentals Last year’s recovery attempt failed in June, and instead accelerated into a “spiral of death”. We foresee a different pattern this year because we believe fundamentals have begun to improve. The basis for improvement is only a relative one in 1H, with “real” improvement having to wait until 2H but it will be a start. Under such conditions market sentiment is key, and that improved towards the end of Q1. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 15. Macro sentiment has improved. Saudi “line-in-sand” sends important signal Panic over weakening growth has been replaced by cautious optimism in the wake of better economic data from the US and the Eurozone and promises of more stimuli from central banks, including China. Saudi Arabia’s attempt to draw a line in the sand at $30 has been another important development affecting market sentiment. While talk of Russia and Saudi Arabia striking a deal to “freeze” production at peak levels in an oversupplied market, was initially scoffed at, history has shown that previous Opec production agreements have started with players far apart but have eventually narrowed and resulted in a supply deal. The return of Iran production makes a supply deal much more difficult for political reasons, indeed our Base Case is that there will be no deal, but we also believe that Opec production will not come close to last year’s 1.5 mbd increase. Iran’s exports will likely rise only gradually and we expect to see declines in other countries, notably Venezuela, through the year. Fundamentals improving, at the margin On the oil fundamentals’ side, things have begun to improve, albeit at the margin only, so far. Global supply growth has come down to around 1.5 mbd (y-y), which, although still significant, is less than half the rate of the previous six months. The change is driven by the shift from growth to decline in the US, but minor declines have begun to show up elsewhere, notably in Latin America. In line with an improved macro sentiment, oil demand figures have also shown a rebound, indicating that the weather rather than a marked weakening of the macro climate was the driver of weakness in the winter months. Gasoline demand has rebounded sharply in the US and is growing very strongly in China and India. Q2 will serve as an acid test for recovery. We expect a lower- than-normal inventory build as demand will decline by less than normal from Q1, partly because of that mild winter . With an expected decline in oil production, the inventory build should surprise on the low side. A key feature should be the start of a significant drop in US crude oil inventories. The buildup having taken place this year, making media headlines every week, is driven by rising imports not by production, which is falling. When Asian refinery demand returns in Q2, competition for US import barrels will increase which in turn should lead to upward pressure on prices. In our view this should be seen as an early step in the long process of rebalancing market fundamentals and a stepping stone to a genuine market tightening starting in 2H, a development which should support a price recovery. 15 2017-2018; Effect of spending cuts to depress global supply In our view, “the game” in the oil market the next few years will be all about supply. We expect demand gains to be relatively steady at 1.0-1.5% p.a., as rapid growth in living standards of emerging markets will continue to drive transportation growth. Demand in the mature OECD economies is set to peak on an absolute basis and begin to decline, but it will be a moderate drop, no collapse. Barring a new global recession, which of course cannot be ruled out, we expect global gains to be relatively steady. Changes are expected to be much bigger for supply than demand Much larger variations can be expected on the supply side of the market, in our opinion. Global capital expenditure in production and exploration has gone through its “biggest drop ever”, according to the IEA, and is set to fall further this year. While service costs of course also are coming down and productivity has gone up, particularly in the highly dynamic North American market, we find the spending declines and observable crisis in the service industries difficult to square with the IEA’s medium-term view of a one-year decline in output (2016) and a return to the same growth outlook they held a year ago from 2018 onwards. Historically, supply cycles have been relatively long, lasting on average 5-7 years from peak to trough. The IEA has already dramatically altered its view on 2016 over the past year, going from an expected increase of +0.5 mbd to an expected decline of -0.7 mbd in its latest forecast. In this context we will be surprised if the current downturn is over already in 2017. The US shale revolution has led to a two-tiered oil market in terms of project development and economics. Where traditional non-Opec production has been capital-intensive, long lead-time projects, US shale is seen as variable cost and short-lead times. Indeed, US supply takes the biggest hit with a 0.5 mbd decline this year before flattening out and beginning a rebound in 2018. 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Oil Production (Output in mbbl/d) MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 16. Non-Opec, non-US production expected to drop in 2017-18 What this effectively means, however, is that current forecasts assume that non-Opec producers ex US will continue to grow through in 2017 and 2018. We see this development as unlikely based on the decline in spending and rig activity and the expected coming increase in depletion as the impact of less in-field drilling sets in. The decline in US production is expected to continue through 2017 before bottoming and commencing a rebound in 2018 which is expected to grow gradually stronger towards 2020. The crucial difference with the 2013-2015 period is that the world will need whatever oil the US is capable of producing in the next upturn in order to compensate for declines elsewhere. We assume non-Opec production will decline by 1.0 mbd this year and by somewhat less in 2017 before commencing a rebound. Combined with our demand growth scenario outlined above the call-on-Opec crude will rise from 32 mbd in 2016 to more than 35 mbd in 2018. The difference will have to be covered by commercial inventories. We expect inventories to begin a sustained decline from current all-time highs in the second half of this year and estimate that they should fall to the low end of the five year range by the end of 2018. The decline in inventories is expected to return the market’s attention to the low level of spare capacity in the global production chain, triggering a risk in the supply risk premium on top of tight fundamentals. 16 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Brent Price (USD /bbl) MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 17. At cruising altitude but beware of turbulence The tanker market has entered 2016 with a tailwind powered by strong fundamentals: Capacity utilization is near the spike-triggering 90% mark, trade growth is at a multi-year high and distances are lengthening. Fleet growth is picking up, but moderately and from a low level, so far. While 2016 has the looks of another strong year, we believe investors should be prepared for a different journey than in 2015. Fleet growth is on the rise while trade growth is expected to moderate. Fleet utilization should still remain high but the freight market is vulnerable to how the oil inventory overhang will be absorbed. Stronger oil demand and floating storage is good news, while lower production and inventories is not. The long-term outlook (towards 2020) has improved, in our view. The low oil price environment should redraw the oil trade map in favor of the Middle East, which will make it favorable for tankers. On the fleet capacity side, we expect that continued challenging capital markets will restrict ordering. Ongoing slippage and increasing fleet replacement needs should serve to further limit fleet growth. All-in-all, prospects appear unusually good for a well-balanced market in the medium-term. The New Year starts on a slower note as high inventories level the playing field As expected, the market turned in a strong fourth quarter finish as Middle East exports surge again with much of it heading to the US, where seaborne imports increased y-y for the first time in six years. The New Year has started on a softer note with freight rates hitting “air pockets” for no apparent reason. In our view, this is a result of the “new normal” in the oil market, where refiners sitting on record-high inventories have a higher degree of flexibility than normal, allowing them pull back from the spot market for longer periods than normal in order to prevent from overheating. The predictable result is a build- up of spot tonnage and downward pressure on rates. This goes on until charterers decide to come down off the fence and then the pendulum swings in the other direction 17 The Tanker market 2015; A banner year, but time to look ahead While 2014 had been a year of exceptionally low fleet growth leading to tightening market fundamentals, 2015 was the year of demand. We estimate that tonnage demand, including volume, trading distances and productivity factors, rose by around 7%, more than twice the growth rate seen in 2014. Fleet growth picked up somewhat but remained well below trend at 2.5%. Fleet utilization thus rose by around 4%-pts to nearly 90%, the highest level since 2008. Oil trade is driven by production and 2015 was the best year in a decade in that regard, with world oil production rising by more than 3 mbd (3.5%). Of particular importance for the tanker market was the shift in geographical locations which took place; Higher Middle East output explained about 50% of the increase, as Iraq and the Saudi Arabia took to the pumps, making it a very “shipping intensive” year. In volume terms, Europe was the biggest gainer with an increase of 0.6 mbd (prel. estimate), as its refineries sharply raised utilization to meet higher local demand and boost exports in a growing world market. Chinese imports were a close second, powered by a strong demand response and further additions to its strategic oil reserves. The decline in seaborne imports to the US continued for its sixth straight year, but, importantly, the rate of decline showed markedly to around 6%, less than half of the decrease in the previous two years. Average trading distances increased only modestly, owing to a large drop in MEG-US exports, but floating storage emerged as a key support factor. Contrary to 2009/’10, however, logistics rather than price speculation has been the main driver. Measuring the level of floating storage is challenging, but we estimate that between 1% and 2% of the total tanker fleet has been employed in storage, mostly on VLCCs. Finally, we find little evidence that higher average speed, the supposed “grim reaper” for the tanker market, has had much impact. While average ballast speed for the VLCCs picked up markedly through the winter, there was little change for other segments (which spend more time in port, on average). MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 18. Fleet growth; On the upswing but moderately so far Following two years of sharply slower fleet growth, the trend turned up last year but the level remained modest in a historical perspective. The total fleet (including product tankers) grew by 2.5%, as deliveries remained at a very low 17 mdwt. The crude fleet grew by a very modest 1.5%, concentrated in VLs and Suezmaxes, while crude aframaxes declined. The clean fleet, on the other hand, continued its rapid expansion, growing by 5% from the year earlier, as LR2s and MRs both expanded by nearly 10% each. Scrapping and phase-outs declined markedly in line with the increase in freight rates and hit an “all-time” low on both an absolute and relative basis at 3.2 mdwt, less than 1% of the fleet. Market likely to flatten as fundamentals gradually normalize The tanker market is coming off two years of significant tonnage deficits but is now likely to gradually return to a more even playing field. Most obvious, significantly higher deliveries will boost fleet growth, to 4-5% p.a. in 2016 and 2017. Tonnage demand growth, on the other hand, is expected to normalize following the spectacular gain seen over the past eighteen months. That still means growth, but in a lower, and more normal, 4% range. Macro and oil market uncertainties weigh… The year has opened with a new round of macro uncertainties, triggering the worst start of the year “ever” in global stock markets and fresh downturn for global commodity prices. A clearer verdict for “weaker growth” is hard to imagine. Yet, we do not see the data actually released from the US, China and the Euro as consistent with a developing recession and we thus stick with a scenario of a gradually improving world economy. Improving oil demand played a big role in the strong trade growth figures seen during the past year and remains a key issue for 2016. The IEA is forecasting a sharp deceleration of demand growth from 1.7 mbd to 1.2 mbd as the effect of the sharp price decline fades. History has shown, however, that the impact of lower prices can take two to three years to fully play out. We thus believe there is still a case for oil demand to outperform expectations, although not to the extent it did last year when growth turned out to be nearly twice as high as was expected at the start of the year. Compounding the challenge posed by inventory overhang If oil demand continues to grow while production declines, the long buildup of oil inventories is likely to go into reverse eventually. The impact on the freight market is likely to be two-fold; In the short-term, the reaction will most likely be negative. Trade will slow, possibly decline, and tonnage presently employed for floating storage will return to active trading. In the longer-term, however, the decline in non-Opec production will create more room for Opec oil, which is positive for tankers. We expect these factors to be of greater importance for 2017 than for 2016, but awareness and monitoring should begin now. Trade growth to slow in line with global oil production… The oil market is likely to undergo a significant change in 2016 as the supply side begins to react to the sharp drop in prices. Non-Opec production is expected to fall by around 0.5 mbd (1%), a sharp turnaround from average production increases of around 2 mbd for each of the past two years. Lower US production will lead the decline, and a consequent rebound in seaborne imports should thus buffer the impact on tanker demand, but overall trade growth will slow. Opec production, which was the key driver of trade growth in 2015, is also unlikely to repeat that performance. Spare capacity has returned to its low point for the past decade and it is thus hard to foresee a sharp rise in production similar to 2015. Other producers are at capacity and could just as well see some declines as the impact of falling oil prices bite. The exception, of course, is Iran, which is set to increase its presence in the world oil market following the removal of sanctions. The timing and scale of higher Iranian oil exports is subject to many unknown factors, but consensus among analysts is for a relatively rapid increase of about 0.5 mbd, anything beyond that may not be online until late in the year. For other Opec members, notably Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya who are heavily impacted by the low oil price, production could possibly drop. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 19. Recovery in rates – although from extremely low levels Freight rates have recovered significantly over the last two months compared with the extreme low levels witnessed in the first quarter of this year. However, the current earnings are only covering more or less operating costs for most sizes. Spot rates for Capesizes and Panamaxes have climbed from less than $3,000 per day in February to approximately $7,000 and $5,000 per day, respectively. Supramax tonnage obtain currently close to $6,000 per day, while Handysize earning is around $5,000 per day. This is up from around $2,500 in February. Asset values also seems to have stabilized and in some segments we have even noticed slightly firmer prices recently. Stronger Chinese imports The seaborne dry bulk activity has recovered over the last few months after a lackluster start of the year. The main reason is elevated imports to China. When comparing the first 4 months with the same period of last year, Chinese iron ore imports were nearly 7 percent higher, while bauxite and soybean imports escalated by 23 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Coal imports however, were down 2 percent and grain imports dropped by 14 percent. In total, Chinese dry bulk imports rose 4.6 percent. Dry bulk imports to other Asian countries showed in total a moderate drop in iron ore and coal, while we registered higher steel products imports to several countries. Elsewhere we noticed an upswing in fertilizer imports to Brazil, but a drop in the US urea imports. Coal imports to Europe continued to drop and were 20 percent lower year on year. Iron ore imports to Europe fell 11 percent. Grain and soybean transportation from major exporters rose about 15 percent during the first 4 months. South American export rose about 50 percent, while Russian grain exports jumped nearly 30 percent. North American shipments however, fell around 5 percent. In total, global dry bulk trade is estimated to have increased only marginally during the first 4 months of this year measured against the comparable period last year. 19 When is it Time for a dry bulk recovery? Fleet trend Deliveries of new ships totaled nearly 23 mill dwt during the first 5 months of this year. This was 35% less than the scheduled deliveries according to the orderbook. Removals were slightly above 20 mill dwt, The size of the fleet was 2% larger than in the same period last year. Market prospects Even though the world economy is expected to improve over the following years, there is still a downside risk to this scenario in the short term perspective. Relatively slow growth in demand for raw materials is still negatively affecting commodity prices, especially in minerals. This is impacting economic activity in a couple of emerging market economies which are heavily dependent on export of raw materials. However, the most important factor for dry bulk demand will be China’s economic performance and especially China’s import requirements for iron ore and coal. China’s steel consumption is expected to decrease further this year. Export of steel products are expected to remain stable. However, potential trade issues whereby several countries are considering to introduce import tariffs on Chinese steel, might reduce exports. Therefore, steel production in China could decrease further. On these assumptions, growth in demand will fall short of the fleet expansion this year, leading to lower fleet utilization than in 2015. We should however, expect some volatility in earnings over the remainder of the year. Seasonality, trading patterns and productivity factors will all have potential implications on tonnage demand in shorter periods. In 2017 and 2018, tonnage demand is expected to gradually grow at a higher rate than the fleet size and thereby result in a recovery from late 2017 through 2018. The main risk elements for a slower than expected recovery in dry bulk fundamentals will be a slower than expected economic growth in China and less coal imports to India. Upside potentials for a quicker recovery will be a reduction in yards ability to deliver newbuildings and not least a stronger than expected stimulative economic policy in China resulting in stronger growth in raw materials imports. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 20. China’s iron ore imports will therefore to a large extent be determined by how much of the domestic iron ore high cost capacity will be phased out and subsequently replaced by imports. Even though iron ore prices saw surprisingly high increase earlier this year, the forward prices are expected to decrease going forward. It is therefore plausible to expect an increase in closures of Chinese iron ore mines. Therefore, we forecast some 30 - 40 mill tons increase per year of iron ore imports to China in the coming years. For other importing countries, we do not foresee any dramatic changes compared to last year. One vital factor for dry bulk demand will be the trend in Chinese coal imports. If we assume electricity demand will climb 2 – 3% per year, the main question will be at what pace will the capacity of alternative electricity increase. Expansion of hydro power capacity will be limited over the following years as the Chinese government has scaled down on the new hydro dam projects. Even though capacity of other renewables will expand significantly, these will still be relatively small in the total energy mix. It is therefore plausible to expect stabilization of coal consumption in 2016 and 2017. As for a stabilization in coal imports, it will to a large extent be determined by the Chinese government’s policy to support domestic coal mining. We believe imports will stabilize, at least for this year. In the longer term, however, there is probably higher downside risk than upside potential in coal imports. One upside potential in coal trade is in higher Indian imports. Expanding steel production coupled with increasing number of coal-fired power plants, will generate higher growth in coal demand. Although Indian government has carried out successful reforms to boost domestic coal mining, coal imports will continue to grow as India will not be able to procure all of its coal requirements domestically. 20 Elsewhere in Asia, there are a few new coal-fired power plant projects, namely in Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam etc. under construction which should give some boost to coal trade. Trade of other dry bulk commodities, especially in the minerals sector, can be best explained in relation to the economic growth. Bauxite exports will continue to grow from expanding production capacities in Australia and West Africa. As for the nickel ore trade, there is limited potential for a recovery as new projects are not in the pipeline in the medium-term. Grain and soybean exports are expected to remain steady over the following months. Fertilizer trade is expected to increase, especially to India and Brazil. In our base case scenario, we predict seaborne dry bulk trade to increase in the region of 1% in 2016 followed by 2 – 3% escalation p.a. in 2017 and 2018. Growth in real tonnage demand is not expected to deviate significantly from the volume growth. Sailing distances in grain, soybeans and some industrial commodities are expected to rise, while we foresee relatively small changes in iron ore and coal. Ship sailing speed is not anticipated to increase significantly until freight rates reach much higher levels. Fleet trend The fleet is anticipated to expand between 1 and 2% this year, followed by less than 1% increase p.a. in 2017 and 2018. We assume deliveries to total around 45 - 50 mill dwt in 2016, slowing to 35 - 40 mill dwt in 2017 and some 25 mill dwt in 2018. However, extremely difficult financial situation in the dry bulk industry might result in fewer deliveries than forecasted. Removal volumes are expected to reach 45 mill dwt this year, followed by 29 mill dwt in 2017 and 20 mill dwt in 2018. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 The Baltic Dry Index (Excluding levels above 4000) MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 21. 21 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2004 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Aries (Ugelstad) Supply I KS 1 April 2004 NOK 201 046 770 42 300 000 15 000 000 57 300 000 Ross Cape DIS 1 October 2004 USD 17 350 000 3 850 000 1 000 000 4 850 000 International Container Ships KS 2 November 2004 USD 66 260 000 12 260 000 4 150 000 16 410 000 J.B.U OBO I KS 1 December 2004 USD 36 580 000 7 780 000 5 000 000 12 780 000 No. of vessels 5 Total NOK 201 046 770 42 300 000 15 000 000 57 300 000 No. of projects 4 Total USD 120 190 000 23 890 000 10 150 000 34 040 000 Total EUR 0 0 0 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2005 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Eidsiva Trucker KS 1 February 2005 EUR 10 900 000 2 470 000 2 000 000 4 470 000 Mount Faber KS 4 April 2005 USD 80 900 000 13 325 000 0 13 325 000 Norwegian Shipping DIS April 2005 USD 19 200 000 13 700 000 5 500 000 19 200 000 Goliat Roro KS 1 May 2005 EUR 9 000 000 1 960 000 1 500 000 3 460 000 Global Cable KS 2 June 2005 USD 12 320 000 2 870 000 3 000 000 5 870 000 Bergshav Chemical KS 2 July 2005 EUR 20 470 000 4 470 000 2 200 000 6 670 000 Volstad Supply I KS 1 August 2005 NOK 262 620 000 75 050 000 20 000 000 95 050 000 Scandinavian Bulkers KS 5 September 2005 EUR 28 926 000 6 776 000 6 000 000 12 776 000 Volstad Supply II KS 1 November 2005 NOK 262 620 000 75 050 000 20 000 000 95 050 000 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 3 November 2005 USD 27 750 000 6 150 000 0 6 150 000 Celine I OBO DIS 1 November 2005 USD 12 470 000 1 970 000 3 000 000 4 970 000 Cement Ship II DIS 1 November 2005 USD 19 800 000 5 575 000 4 000 000 9 575 000 Multipurpose Bulkers DIS 4 December 2005 EUR 27 145 000 4 695 000 4 500 000 9 195 000 SBS Tempest KS 1 December 2005 NOK 134 300 000 29 300 000 10 000 000 39 300 000 SBS Torrent KS 1 December 2005 NOK 141 175 000 31 975 000 10 000 000 41 975 000 Green Pacific DIS 3 December 2005 USD 30 590 000 6 090 000 8 000 000 14 090 000 No. of vessels 31 Total NOK 800 715 000 211 375 000 60 000 000 271 375 000 No. of projects 16 Total USD 203 030 000 49 680 000 23 500 000 73 180 000 Total EUR 96 441 000 20 371 000 16 200 000 36 571 000 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2006 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Norwegian Shipping II DIS January 2006 USD 8 000 000 5 200 000 2 800 000 8 000 000 SBS Typhoon KS 1 January 2006 NOK 167 050 000 36 650 000 25 000 000 61 650 000 Japan Offshore DIS 3 April 2006 USD 37 150 000 8 150 000 3 000 000 11 150 000 Aries (Ugelstad) Supply II KS 1 April 2006 NOK 155 000 000 33 000 000 21 000 000 54 000 000 European Venture DIS 2 April 2006 USD 46 325 000 9 965 000 5 000 000 14 965 000 NFC Offshore DIS 4 April 2006 USD 74 500 000 24 480 000 8 000 000 32 480 000 Oceanlink Offshore DIS 1 May 2006 USD 13 250 000 2 750 000 2 500 000 5 250 000 Panda Chemical Oil DIS 1 June 2006 USD 19 545 000 4 345 000 1 500 000 5 845 000 Western Chemical KS 3 July 2006 EUR 32 775 000 7 095 000 5 750 000 12 845 000 Singapore Offshore DIS 5 August 2006 USD 129 100 000 8 500 000 8 000 000 16 500 000 Oceanlink Offshore II DIS 1 August 2006 USD 12 000 000 2 250 000 2 250 000 4 500 000 Japan Offshore II DIS 3 September 2006 USD 39 075 000 8 775 000 7 825 000 16 600 000 NFC Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 46 046 000 14 186 000 8 666 000 22 852 000 Japan Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 47 340 000 10 540 000 9 430 000 19 970 000 Oceanlink Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 28 500 000 5 200 000 9 600 000 14 800 000 Agder Ocean Reefer II DIS 2 November 2006 USD 19 500 000 4 500 000 4 500 000 Northern Offshore DIS 2 November 2006 USD 39 000 000 8 400 000 6 740 000 15 140 000 Norwegian Product DIS 2 November 2006 USD 32 865 000 7 265 000 6 500 000 13 765 000 Global Cable II DIS 2 December 2006 USD 45 400 000 9 400 000 6 000 000 15 400 000 No. of vessels 39 Total NOK 322 050 000 69 650 000 46 000 000 115 650 000 No. of projects 19 Total USD 637 596 000 133 906 000 87 811 000 221 717 000 Total EUR 32 775 000 7 095 000 5 750 000 12 845 000 Projects established per year MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 22. 22 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2007 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Ross Chemical DIS 5 February 2007 USD 119 100 000 25 100 000 12000000 37 100 000 Atlantic Guardian DIS 1 February 2007 USD 42 880 000 8 100 000 8 000 000 16 100 000 NFC Panamax DIS 1 March 2007 USD 24 650 000 4 650 000 4 650 000 Orchard Offshore DIS 4 March 2007 USD 43 800 000 7 800 000 2 125 000 9 925 000 Raffles Offshore DIS 1 March 2007 USD 45 945 000 12 445 000 4 500 000 16 945 000 Norwegian Offshore DIS 4 April 2007 USD 65 470 000 21 900 000 6 000 000 27 900 000 Med Ethylene DIS 2 May 2007 USD 27 875 000 6 275 000 4 500 000 10 775 000 Ullswater Subsea DIS 1 May 2007 USD 48 820 000 12 820 000 5 000 000 17 820 000 European Venture II DIS 1 July 2007 USD 11 370 000 3 370 000 6 000 000 9 370 000 Tioman Offshore DIS 1 July 2007 USD 51 150 000 11 150 000 11 150 000 Sentosa Offshore DIS 4 July 2007 USD 46 350 000 8 300 000 8 300 000 Southern Chemical DIS 3 July 2007 EUR 88 200 000 10 350 000 10 000 000 20 350 000 Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 August 2007 USD 43 600 000 10 500 000 10 500 000 Asian Bulkers DIS 3 October 2007 USD 142 875 000 49 075 000 49 075 000 Short Sea Shipping DIS 4 November 2007 EUR 24 800 000 4 550 000 4 500 000 9 050 000 Ross Chemical IV DIS 2 November 2007 USD 53 000 000 18 000 000 18 000 000 Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS 1 November 2007 USD 32 750 000 7 150 000 7 000 000 14 150 000 Pantheon Chemical DIS 1 November 2007 EUR 31 000 000 5 160 000 5 500 000 10 660 000 No. of vessels 43 Total NOK No. of projects 18 Total USD 799 635 000 206 635 000 55 125 000 261 760 000 Total EUR 144 000 000 20 060 000 20 000 000 40 060 000 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2008 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Marineline Chemical DIS 3 February 2008 USD 79 850 000 12 680 000 12 680 000 Edda Accommodation DIS 1 February 2008 EUR 126 500 000 44 000 000 12 000 000 56 000 000 NFC AHTS Limited 2 March 2008 USD 70 520 000 24 600 000 24 600 000 Bukit Timah Offshore DIS 3 May 2008 USD 125 269 250 29 269 250 29 269 250 Mountbatten Offshore DIS 2 May 2008 USD 109 134 000 25 134 000 25 134 000 Bovey Offshore Ltd. 4 May 2008 USD 42 650 000 14 475 000 14 475 000 Semakau Producer DIS 1 July 2008 USD 20 400 000 20 400 000 20 400 000 European Venture III DIS 1 July 2008 USD 17 720 000 5 720 000 5 000 000 10 720 000 Golden Kamsar DIS 1 August 2008 USD 67 294 000 17 294 000 12 500 000 29 794 000 Jimbaran DIS 1 September 2008 USD 54 200 000 9 035 000 9 035 000 Seminyak DIS 2 September 2008 USD 108 963 000 18 618 000 14 000 000 32 618 000 JBUS Offshore DIS 2 September 2008 USD 60 000 000 27 000 000 27 000 000 Oceanlink Reefer III DIS 1 September 2008 USD 20 200 000 5 200 000 5 000 000 10 200 000 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 7 October 2008 USD 53 500 000 10 000 000 7 000 000 17 000 000 No. of vessels 31 Total NOK No. of projects 14 Total USD 829 700 250 219 425 250 43 500 000 262 925 250 Total EUR 126 500 000 44 000 000 12 000 000 56 000 000 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2009 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Leighton / ICON 3 July 2009 USD 135 000 000 10 000 000 10 000 000 ICON Victorious 1 USD 42 500 000 37 750 000 37 750 000 Diving Bell 1 USD 10 000 000 8 000 000 8 000 000 No. of vessels 5 Total NOK No. of projects 3 Total USD 187 500 000 55 750 000 55 750 000 Total EUR MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 23. 23 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2010 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Octavian Bulker DIS 1 July 2009 USD 37 400 000 16 000 000 16 000 000 Shanghai Bulker DIS 1 USD 9 000 000 1 670 000 1 670 000 Saragol Tankers 1 DIS 1 USD 48 237 500 17 737 500 17 737 500 Saragol Tankers 2 DIS 1 USD 54 312 500 18 812 500 2 000 000 20 812 500 No. of vessels 4 Total NOK No. of projects 4 Total USD 148 950 000 54 220 000 2 000 000 56 220 000 Total EUR 0 - PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2011 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Northern Supply DIS 2 May 2011 USD 88 000 000 20 800 000 19 280 000 40 080 000 Redfish Offshore 2 November 2011 USD 45 000 000 9 000 000 9 000 000 No. of vessels 4 Total NOK No. of projects 2 Total USD 133 000 000 29 800 000 19 280 000 49 080 000 Total EUR PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2012 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Singapore Supply DIS 1 March 2012 USD 42 700 000 10 240 000 8 580 000 18 820 000 Industrial Shipping DIS 7 March 2012 EUR 25 950 000 5 750 000 5 750 000 Vestland Marine PSV DIS 1 April 2012 USD 1 650 000 1 650 000 1 650 000 MS Nordstjernen DIS 1 November 2012 NOK 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000 No. of vessels 10 Total NOK 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000 No. of projects 4 Total USD 44 350 000 11 890 000 8 580 000 20 470 000 Total EUR 25 950 000 5 750 000 5 750 000 PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2013 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Feeder Container Vessel DIS 1 USD 4 300 000 4 300 000 4 300 000 Sudong Offshore DIS 1 October 2013 USD 26 000 000 8 200 000 8 200 000 Panda Chemical II DIS 1 USD 4 315 000 1 815 000 2 000 000 3 815 000 No. of vessels 3 Total NOK No. of projects 3 Total USD 34 615 000 14 315 000 2 000 000 16 315 000 Total EUR PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2014 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Vestland Marine Seismic DIS 1 February 2014 USD 1 550 000 1 550 000 1 550 000 High Yield Shipping DIS 1 April 2014 USD 6 000 000 6 000 000 6 000 000 CIT-Grieg Lygra 1 June 2014 USD 49 000 000 49 000 000 49 000 000 CIT-Grieg Minerva 1 June 2014 USD 17 100 000 17 100 000 17 100 000 DSV Alliance DIS 1 June 2014 USD 21 500 000 10 112 500 10 112 500 Aberdeen Offshore DIS 1 November 2014 USD 71 464 000 32 464 000 32 464 000 Lesley Product DIS 1 November 2014 USD 2 355 000 2 355 000 2 355 000 No. of vessels 7 Total NOK No. of projects 7 Total USD 168 969 000 118 581 500 0 118 581 500 Total EUR PROJECTS ESTABLISHED 2015 NO. OF VSLS. ESTABLISHED CURRENCY TOTAL PROJECT PRICE PAID IN CAPITAL UNCALLED CAPITAL TOTAL COMMITTED CAPITAL Bergshav Aframax AS 2 January 2015 USD 10 000 000 7 500 000 2 500 000 10 000 000 CIT-Thor Magni 1 February 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000 Homborsund Container DIS 1 April 2015 USD 4 900 000 4 900 000 4 900 000 Henrietta Product DIS 1 April 2015 USD 10 400 000 8 400 000 8 400 000 CIT-Thor Modi 1 May 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000 CIT Thor Frigg 1 May 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000 Feeder Container II DIS 2 September 2015 USD 15 525 000 15 525 000 15 525 000 CIT-Thor Freyja 1 September 2015 USD 21 500 000 21 500 000 21 500 000 No. of vessels 10 Total NOK No. of projects 8 Total USD 126 675 000 122 175 000 2 500 000 124 675 000 Total EUR MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 24. 24 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE Projects Sold # Projects sold Vessels Established Currency Total Project Cost IRR Sold 1 Diving Bell 1 July 2009 USD 10 000 000 N/A N/A 2 ICON Victorious 1 July 2009 USD 42 500 000 N/A N/A 3 Leighton / ICON 3 July 2009 USD 135 000 000 N/A N/A 4 Redfish Offshore 2 November 2011 USD 45 000 000 N/A N/A 5 Ross Chemical DIS 5 February 2007 USD 119 100 000 N/A N/A 6 Short Sea Shipping DIS 4 November 2007 EUR 24 800 000 N/A N/A 7 International Container Ships KS 2 November 2004 USD 66 260 000 95 %* 2005 8 Aries (Ugelstad) Supply I KS 1 April 2004 NOK 201 046 770 66 % 2007 9 Aries (Ugelstad) Supply II KS 1 April 2006 NOK 155 000 000 64 % 2007 10 Celine I OBO DIS 1 November 2005 USD 12 470 000 57 % 2007 11 Goliat Roro KS 1 May 2005 EUR 9 000 000 -25 %* 2007 12 Green Pacific DIS 3 December 2005 USD 30 590 000 N/A 2007 13 J.B.U OBO I KS 1 December 2004 USD 36 580 000 37 % 2007 14 Japan Offshore DIS 3 April 2006 USD 37 150 000 70 %* 2007 15 Japan Offshore II DIS 3 September 2006 USD 39 075 000 733 %* 2007 16 Japan Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 47 340 000 49 %* 2007 17 NFC Offshore DIS 4 April 2006 USD 74 500 000 477 % 2007 18 NFC Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 46 046 000 26 %* 2007 19 Northern Offshore DIS 2 November 2006 USD 39 000 000 153 % 2007 20 Ross Cape DIS 1 October 2004 USD 17 350 000 41 % 2007 21 Global Cable KS 2 June 2005 USD 12 320 000 28 % 2009 22 Semakau Producer DIS 1 July 2008 USD 20 400 000 19 % 2009 23 Eidsiva Trucker KS 1 February 2005 EUR 10 900 000 -100 %* 2010 24 NFC AHTS Limited 2 March 2008 USD 70 520 000 -5 %* 2010 25 Scandinavian Bulkers KS 5 September 2005 EUR 28 926 000 0 % 2010 26 Bergshav Chemical KS 2 July 2005 EUR 20 470 000 -48 %* 2011 27 European Venture II DIS 1 July 2007 USD 11 370 000 20 % 2011 28 JBUS Offshore DIS 2 September 2008 USD 60 000 000 3 % 2011 29 Mountbatten Offshore DIS 2 May 2008 USD 109 134 000 -8 %* 2011 30 Norwegian Offshore DIS 4 April 2007 USD 65 470 000 0 % 2011 31 Oceanlink Offshore DIS 1 May 2006 USD 13 250 000 16 % 2011 32 Oceanlink Offshore II DIS 1 August 2006 USD 12 000 000 35 % 2011 33 Pantheon Chemical DIS 1 November 2007 EUR 31 000 000 N/A 2011 34 Ross Chemical IV DIS 2 November 2007 USD 53 000 000 N/A 2011 35 SBS Tempest KS 1 December 2005 NOK 134 300 000 30 % 2011 36 Shanghai Bulker DIS 1 August 2010 USD 9 000 000 55 % 2011 37 Tioman Offshore DIS 1 July 2007 USD 51 150 000 10 % 2011 38 Volstad Supply I KS 1 August 2005 NOK 262 620 000 27 % 2011 39 Volstad Supply II KS 1 November 2005 NOK 262 620 000 38 % 2011 40 Western Chemical KS 3 July 2006 EUR 32 775 000 -60 %* 2011 41 Edda Accommodation DIS 1 December 2008 EUR 126 500 000 N/A 2012 42 Multipurpose Bulkers DIS 4 December 2005 EUR 27 145 000 N/A 2012 43 Norwegian Shipping DIS 1 April 2005 USD 19 200 000 15 % 2012 44 Oceanlink Reefer III DIS 1 September 2008 USD 20 200 000 N/A 2012 45 Agder Ocean Reefer II DIS 2 November 2006 USD 19 500 000 N/A 2013 46 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 3 November 2005 USD 27 750 000 N/A 2013 47 Cement Ship II DIS 1 November 2005 USD 19 800 000 19 % 2013 48 Jimbaran DIS 1 September 2008 USD 54 200 000 -100 %* 2013 49 Norwegian Shipping II DIS 1 January 2006 USD 8 000 000 8 % 2013 50 Oceanlink Offshore III DIS 2 October 2006 USD 28 500 000 N/A 2013 51 Raffles Offshore DIS 1 March 2007 USD 45 945 000 16 % 2013 52 Vestland Marine PSV DIS 1 April 2012 USD 1 650 000 30 % 2013 53 Agder Ocean Reefer KS 7 October 2008 USD 53 500 000 -67 %* 2014 54 Atlantic Guardian DIS 1 February 2007 USD 42 880 000 N/A 2014 55 Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 May 2008 USD 42 650 000 17 % 2014 56 Bovey Offshore Ltd 4 August 2007 USD 43 600 000 17 % 2014 57 European Venture III DIS 1 July 2008 USD 17 720 000 24 % 2014 58 Global Cable II DIS 2 December 2006 USD 45 400 000 21 % 2014 59 Marineline Chemical DIS 3 February 2008 USD 79 850 000 -100 %* 2014 60 Med Ethylene DIS 2 May 2007 USD 27 875 000 4 % 2014 61 Mount Faber KS 4 April 2005 USD 80 900 000 32 % 2014 62 Norwegian Product DIS 2 November 2006 USD 32 865 000 3 % 2014 63 Panda Chemical Oil DIS 1 June 2006 USD 19 545 000 -53 %* 2014 64 SBS Torrent KS 1 December 2005 NOK 141 175 000 23 % 2014 65 SBS Typhoon KS 1 January 2006 NOK 167 050 000 21 % 2014 66 RTS Panamax DIS 1 April 2007 USD 24 000 000 N/A 2014 67 Feeder Container Vessel DIS 1 May 2013 USD 4 300 000 23 % 2015 68 Northern Supply DIS 2 May 2011 USD 88 000 000 N/A 2015 69 Octavian Bulker DIS 1 July 2009 USD 37 400 000 -29 % 2015 70 Singapore Supply DIS 1 March 2012 USD 42 700 000 N/A 2015 71 Ullswater Subsea DIS 1 May 2007 USD 48 820 000 N/A 2015 72 DSV Alliance DIS 1 June 2014 USD 21 500 000 -100 %* 2016 73 Orchard Offshore DIS 4 March 2007 USD 43 800 000 18 % 2016 74 Singapore Offshore DIS 5 August 2006 USD 129 100 000 18 % 2016 75 Vestland Marine Seismic DIS 1 February 2014 USD 1 550 000 7 % 2016 75 Vessels financed and sold: 128 USD/EUR 1:1 (USD/NOK 8.20): ~$3 000 000 000 *Cash-on-cash return
  • 25. 25 Existing Projects & Segment Offshore # Total project price European Venture DIS 2 USD 46 325 000 Bukit Timah Offshore DIS 3 USD 125 269 250 Sentosa Offshore DIS 1 USD 46 350 000 Sudong Offshore DIS 1 USD 26 000 000 Aberdeen Offshore DIS 1 USD 71 464 000 8 Tankers # Panda Chemical II DIS 1 USD 4 315 000 Southern Chemical DIS 2 EUR 88 200 000 Dongguan Chemical Tankers DIS 1 USD 32 750 000 Seminyak DIS 2 USD 108 963 000 Bergshav Aframax AS 1 USD 17 500 000 Saragol Tankers 1 DIS 1 USD 56 000 000 Saragol Tankers 2 DIS 1 USD 49 000 000 Lesley Product DIS 1 USD 2 355 000 Henrietta Product DIS 1 USD 10 400 000 11 Drybulk # Asian Bulkers DIS 3 USD 48 000 000 Golden Kamsar DIS 1 USD 67 294 000 Industrial Shipping DIS 6 EUR 34 000 000 10 Containers # Feeder Container II DIS 2 USD 15 500 000 High Yield Shipping DIS 1 USD 6 000 000 Homborsund Container DIS 1 USD 4 750 000 4 Other # MS Nordstjernen DIS 1 NOK 8 000 000 Platou Shipinvest I DIS USD 1 Total $/euro 1:1 1 049 035 250 Projects 22 Vessels 34 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 26. 26 Projects' estimated returns MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE Clarksons Platou Project Finance Secondhand Opportunities Estimated Returns Project Established Paid in Capital Accumulated Dividends Accumulated in % of Paid in Capital Estimated Share Price per 1% Estimated IRR Seller Estimated IRR Buyer Aberdeen Offshore DIS November 1, 2014 USD 7 000 000 N/A 0 % $ 120 000 4,12 % 11,32 % Bergshav Aframax February 20, 2014 USD 6 500 000 3 200 000 49 % $ 40 000 15,63 % 12,54 % Bukit Timah Offshore DIS May 1, 2008 USD 29 269 250 21 250 000 73 % $ 280 000 10,82 % 20,19 % Dongguan Chemical Tankers December 1, 2007 USD 7 150 000 4 700 000 66 % $ 48 000 4,49 % 20,63 % European Venture DIS April 1, 2008 USD 9 965 000 14 090 000 141 % $ 40 000 10,17 % 23,38 % Feeder Container DIS May 1, 2013 USD 4 300 000 6 560 000 153 % $ 57 000 20,70 % SOLD Feeder Container II DIS September 15, 2015 USD 15 525 000 650 000 4 % $ 145 000 -3,30 % 11,60 % Golden Kamsar DIS August 1, 2008 USD 23 694 000 8 500 000 36 % $ 150 000 0,00 % 20,26 % Henrietta Product DIS June 30, 2015 USD 8 400 000 1 700 000 20 % $ 82 000 12,60 % 10,30 % High Yield Shipping DIS January 1, 2014 USD 6 000 000 1 055 000 18 % $ 59 000 8,80 % 10,10 % Homborsund Container DIS June 30, 2015 USD 4 750 000 N/A 0 % $ 50 000 2,04 % 15,53 % Industrial Shipping DIS May 1, 2012 USD 5 750 000 355 515 6 % € 40 000 -29,90 % 12,72 % Lesley Product DIS October 1, 2014 USD 2 350 000 610 000 26 % $ 23 500 17,47 % 12,20 % Nordstjernen November 23, 2012 NOK 6 000 000 3 000 000 50 % kr 86 000 10,00 % 10,00 % Octavian Bulkers DIS September 1, 2010 USD 16 000 000 14 525 000 91 % $ 130 250 -2,07 % SOLD Orchard Offshore DIS March 1, 2007 USD 7 800 000 19 842 500 254 % $ 14 500 18,07 % SOLD Panda Chemical II DIS November 1, 2013 USD 1 815 000 N/A 0 % $ 25 000 13,19 % 15,78 % Saragol Tankers I DIS June 1, 2007 USD 18 500 000 N/A N/A $ 185 000 N/A 21,00 % Saragol Tankers II DIS December 1, 2007 USD 26 000 000 N/A N/A $ 260 000 N/A 20,90 % Seminyak DIS September 1, 2008 USD 36 168 000 N/A 0 % $ 60 000 N/A Selling Sentosa Offshore DIS July 1, 2007 USD 8 300 000 14 450 000 174 % $ 28 000 15,09 % 24,51 % Singapore Offshore DIS August 1, 2006 USD 7 850 000 21 118 367 269 % $ 38 000 18,56 % SOLD Southern Chemical DIS July 1, 2007 EUR 16 350 000 1 540 000 9 % $ 60 000 -11,3 % 21,82 % Sudong Offshore DIS October 1, 2013 USD 8 200 000 1 375 000 17 % $ 70 000 0,9 % 24,14 % Vestland Marine Seismic DIS February 1, 2014 USD 1 550 000 1 708 000 110 % $ 11 080 6,82 % SOLD
  • 27. 27 Company fleet list Clarksons Platou Project Finance Fleet List Project Vessel Type Vessel Name DWT/TEU/BHP/ M2 Built Yard Charter Type Aberdeen Offshore DIS PSV FS Cygnus 750m2 2014 Simek Yard, Norway BB Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Svenner 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Slettnes 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC Asian Bulkers DIS Supramax MV Svinoy 58000 2010 Dayang, China TC Bergshav Aframax AS Aframax Tanker Stealth Berana 115000 2010 Samsung Heavy Industries TC Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Indigo 11000 2011 Penglai Bohai Shipyard Co. Ltd. TC Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Crimson 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea TC Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Coral 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea Spot Blue Mountain Tankers DIS IMO II/III Product Tanker Oceanic Cyan 13000 2008 Jinse Co. Ltd., Korea TC Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Else-Marie 10800 BHP 2009 China BB Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Anne-Christine 10801 BHP 2009 China BB Bukit Timah Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Mary-Ann 10802 BHP 2010 China BB Dongguan Chem. Tankers DIS IMO II Chemical Tanker Toreach Pioneer 8200 2008 Zhejiang Haifeng Shipbuilding BB European Venture DIS PSV GSP Queen 2 x 3978 BHP 2006 Jaya Yard, Singapore BB European Venture DIS PSV GSP King 2 x 5440 BHP 2005 Jaya Yard, Singapore BB Feeder Container II DIS Container Feeder Vessel MV Portofino 1700 TEU 2002 Szczecin, Poland BB Feeder Container II DIS Container Feeder Vessel MV Ponente 1700 TEU 2002 Szczecin, Poland BB Golden Kamsar DIS Kamsarmax Golden Eclipse 79600 2010 Jinhaiwan Shipyard, China BB Henrietta Product DIS Product Tanker Henrietta PG 9847 2001 Frisian Shyd, Netherlands BB High Yield Shipping DIS Container Feeder Vessel MSC Positano 2300 TEU 2003 Daewoo, South Korea BB Homborsund Container DIS Containership Dolphin Strait 1100 TEU 2003 CSC Jinling, China TC Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transforza 4117 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transsonoro 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transrisoluto 4145 1997 Bodewes Volharding B.V Netherland BB Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transvolante 4117 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Translontano 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB Industrial Shipping DIS MPP Single-Decker Transdistinto 4160 2000 Severnav S.A, Romania BB Lesley Product DIS Product Tanker Lesley PG 6249 1998 Appledore Shipbuilders, UK BB MS Nordstjernen DIS Veteran Passenger Ship MS Nordstjernen 570 1956 Blohm & Voss, Germany BB Panda Chemical II DIS Product Tanker Panda PG 6725 2004 Sedef Shipyard/ Istanbul BB Saragol Tankers 1 DIS Product Tanker LR MV Luengo 73626 2007 New Century Shipbuilding Co. BB Saragol Tankers 2 DIS Product & Crude Oil Tanker MT Mucua 114000 2008 New Times Shipbuilding BB Seminyak DIS Chemical Tanker MT Sira 19998 2008 Japan TC Seminyak DIS Chemical Tanker MT Simoa 40354 2004 Korea TC Sentosa Offshore DIS AHTS Swiber Sandefjord 5000 BHP 2009 Malaysia/China BB Southern Chemical DIS Chemical Tanker Alicudi M 40083 2004 Korea BB Southern Chemical DIS Chemical Tanker Lipari M 3400 2002 Italy BB Sudong Offshore DIS AHTS Lewek Swan 12240 BHP 2005 Pan United, Singapore BB CIT-Grieg Dry bulk vessel Star Lygra 50741 2013 Hyundai Mipo BB CIT-Grieg Dry bulk vessel Star Minerva 50741 2008 Oshima SB BB CIT-Thor Magni Seismic Support Vessel Thor Magni 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB CIT-Thor Modi Seismic Support Vessel Thor Modi 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB CIT-Thor Frigg Seismic Support Vessel Thor Frigg 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB CIT-Thor Freyja Seismic Support Vessel Thor Freyja 1100 2015 Besiktas, Turkey BB MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 28. This Market Report has been prepared by Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS (”CPPF”).The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Although CPPF has endeavoured to present a consistent and correct picture of the projects, CPPF can not guarantee or be held financially or legally responsible for the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this report. Please note that the estimates shown are based on estimates made by CPPF. The estimates are based on fair assumptions supported by objective data. The estimates are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. Included in this report are various “forward-looking-statement”, including statements regarding CPPF or others intent, opinions, belief or current expectations of the projects with respect to (A) The target market, (B) evaluation of the companies' markets, competition and competitive position, (C) trends and market movements which may be expressed or implied by financial or other information or statements herein. Any reference to past performance or forward-looking-statements should not be used as a reliable indicator of future performance or future yield/return. This Market Report and its contents is the property of CPPS and CPPF and can not be distributed to any other party without the prior written consent of CPPS or CPPF. The projects
  • 29. 29 KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Eva Lise Bjerke THE VESSEL(S) COMMERCIAL DETAILS INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE CASHFLOW FORECASTS BALANCE 30.06.2016 COMMENTS FINANCING Established: October 2014 Estimated share value per 1 % 120,000 Paid in capital: USD 17,000,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 11.32% Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : 4.12% Estimated Expiry: Q4 2024 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% 12,500 Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% 2,200 Aberdeen offshore dis Vessel(s) name: FS CYGNUS Type: PSV UT755 LC DWT: 3,150 Yard: SIMEK, Flekkefjord, Norway Built: November 2014 Class: DNV GL Flag: British Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS Disponent owner: OMP Management AS Project price: USD 34,800,000 Paid in capital: USD 17,000,000 Uncalled capital: USD 0 Bareboat charterer: Fletcher Shipping Ltd. Commencement of charter: 14 November 2014 Expiry of charter: 13 November 2021 Daily bareboat rate: USD 11,246/d Estimated Residual: USD 26,000,000 Estimated IRR: 14% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Operating revenue 2,145,000 546,500 859,000 5,519,000 5,105,000 Operating expenses -657,000 -160,000 -160,000 -163,000 -165,000 Net operating cashflow 1,488,000 344,000 699,000 5,356,000 4,943,000 Purchase/Sale of vessel 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned 0 0 0 0 1,027,000 Interest expenses -703,000 -704,000 -718,000 -695,000 -363,000 Paid in capital 0 0 0 0 0 Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -1,576,000 -393,000 0 -3,754,000 -1,289,000 Net financial items -2,279,000 -1,097,000 -718,000 -4,449,000 -625,000 Net projected cash flow 791,000 -753,000 -19,000 907,000 4,318,000 Estimated dividend 0 0 0 0 -4,229,000 Cash USD 350,000 Implicit vessel value USD 24,970,000 Accounts Receivable USD 3,721,000 Total assets USD 29,041,000 Outstanding debt USD 16,941,000 Short term payables USD 100,000 Total outstanding debt USD 17,041,000 Estimated project value USD 12,000,000 The company aquired the newbuilding, FS Cygnus, on 14 November 2014. The vessel is fixed on a 7 year bareboat charter contract to Fletcher Shipping Ltd. After a restructuring in August 2015 the new bareboat charterer is Fletcher Supply Ships Ltd. In the restructuring agreement, the bareboat hire is paid on a pay-as-you-earn arrangement. The vessel is currently on T/C to Enquest. Mortgage loan: 18 911 140 Balloon: 11 031 498 Term: 5 years Quarterly instalments: 393 982 Interest: LIBOR + margin of 2.95 % *Assuming refinancing after 5 years , 50% of loan is fixed at an interest of 1.77% MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 30. 30 KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Erik Kristian Andresen THE VESSEL(S) COMMERCIAL DETAILS INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE CASHFLOW FORECASTS BALANCE 30.06.2016 COMMENTS FINANCING Established: October 2007 Estimated share value per 1 % N/A Paid in capital: USD 48,000,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : N/A Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : N/A Estimated Expiry: N/A Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A Asian Bulkers dis Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS Disponent owner: Scantank AS Project price: USD 123,000,000 Paid in capital: USD 48,000,000 Uncalled capital: USD 0 Bareboat charterer: N/A Pool Operator: Klaveness Pool Expiry of charter: N/A Daily bareboat rate: USD N/A Estimated Residual: USD 26,000,000 Estimated IRR: 14% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Operating revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Operating expenses Net operating cashflow Purchase/Sale of vessel Interest earned Interest expenses Paid in capital Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt Net financial items Net projected cash flow Estimated dividend Cash USD N/A Implicit vessel value USD Accounts Receivable USD Total assets USD Outstanding debt USD Short term payables USD Total outstanding debt USD Estimated project value USD All vessels operating in the Klaveness pool. Drydocked in 2015. Mortgage loan: 86,100,000 Balloon: 63,000,000 Term: 5 years Quarterly instalments: 1,440,000 Interest: Floating, 2.23% incl. Margin Vessel(s) name: MV Svenner MV Slettnes MV Svinoy Type: Supramax Bulker Supramax Bulker Supramax Bulker DWT: 58,000 58,000 58,000 Yard: Dayang, China Dayang, China Dayang, China Built: 2010 2010 2010 Class: BV BV BV Flag: Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 31. 31 KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Axel M. Aas, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen THE VESSEL(S) COMMERCIAL DETAILS INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE CASHFLOW FORECASTS BALANCE 30.06.2016 COMMENTS FINANCING Established: February 2015 Estimated share value per 1 % USD 40,000 Paid in capital: USD 6,500,000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 12.29% Accumulated dividends: USD 3,800,000 Estimated IRR Seller : 15.63% Estimated Expiry: Q2 2018 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A Bergshav Aframax AS Vessel(s) name: STEALTH BERANA Type: Aframax Tanker DWT: 115,897 Yard: Samsung HI, South Korea Built: 2010 Class: DNV GL Flag: Malta Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS Disponent owner: Bergshav Management AS Project price: USD 6,500,000 Paid in capital: USD 6,500,000 Uncalled capital: USD 0 T/C charterer: Phillips 66 Commencement of charter: October 2015 Daily BB rate:: USD 12,900 Daily T/C rate: USD 25,150 Estimated Residual: Bareboat Estimated IRR: 73% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Operating revenue 3,286,000 8,745,000 8,721,000 2,287,000 Operating expenses -4,384,000 -7,382,000 -7,580,000 -1,935,000 Net operating cashflow -1,099,000 1,362,000 1,141,000 351,000 Purchase/Sale of vessel - - - - Interest earned - - - - Interest expenses 6,500,000 - - - Paid in capital -141,000 141,000 - - Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -1,821,000 - - 1,821,000 Net financial items 4,538,000 141,000 - 1,821,000 Net projected cash flow 3,440,000 1,503,000 1,141,000 2,172,000 Estimated dividend 3,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 2,656,000 Bergshav Aframax AS has chartered in one Aframax Tanker on 32 months bareboat charter. The vessel is fixed on TC to Philips 66 for the remaining bareboat period. The vessel will be redelivered to owners at the end of the time charter. Mortgage loan: 100% Equity Balloon: Term: Quarterly instalments: Interest: Cash USD 409,000 Implicit vessel value USD 3,591,000 Total assets USD 4,000,000 Outstanding debt USD - Short term payables USD - Total outstanding debt USD - Estimated project value USD 4,000,000 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 32. 32 KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen THE VESSEL(S) COMMERCIAL DETAILS INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE CASHFLOW FORECASTS BALANCE 30.06.2016 COMMENTS FINANCING Established: May 2008 Estimated share value per 1 % USD 280,000 Paid in capital: USD 29,269,250 Last reported sale pr 1 % USD 330,000 Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : 20.19% Accumulated dividends: USD 21,250,000 Estimated IRR Seller : 10.82% Estimated Expiry: Q4 2020 Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% 118,000 Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% 9,400 Bukit timah offshore dis Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS Disponent owner: OMP Management AS Project price: USD 125,269,250 Paid in capital: USD 29,269,250 Uncalled capital: USD 0 Bareboat charterer: Southsea Mar. guaranteed by Swiber Commencement of charter: August 2009 – September 2010 Expiry of charter: August 2019 – September 2020 Daily BB rate: USD 3x 15,850 Estimated Residual: USD 60,000,000 Estimated IRR: 15% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Operating revenue 17,356,000 17,403,000 17,356,000 17,356,000 15,343,000 Operating expenses -279,000 -272,000 -275,000 -278,000 -281,000 Net operating cashflow 17,077,000 17,131,000 17,081,000 17,078,000 15,062,000 Purchase/Sale of vessel - - - - 16,250,000 Interest earned 5,000 - - - 70,000 Interest expenses -5,066,000 -4,547,000 -3,854,000 -3,184,000 -2,395,000 Paid in capital - - - - - Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt -7,700,000 -7,950,000 -7,950,000 -7,950,000 -16,038,000 Net financial items -12,761,000 -12,497,000 -11,804,000 -11,134,000 -2,113,000 Net projected cash flow 4,315,000 4,634,000 5,277,000 5,944,000 12,949,000 Estimated dividend - - 16,600,000 6,100,000 13,000,000 The charterer has purchase options from year 5 to year 10. Hire is being paid, but the bank has restricted dividend payments, which has resulted in a cash position of about USD 10m. Mortgage loan: 96,000,000 Balloon: 20,250,000 Seller's credit 6,000,000 Term: 10 Years Quarterly instalments: USD 1,987,500 Mortgage Interest: 8.3213% Incl. 3.625% margin Interest Seller's Credit 3.50% Vessel(s) name: Swiber Anne-Christine Swiber Mary-Ann Swiber Else-Marie Type: AHTS AHTS AHTS BHP: 10,800 10,800 10,800 Yard: China China China Built: 2009 2010 2009 Class: ABS ABS ABS Flag: Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. Marshall Isl. Cash USD 10,600,000 Implicit vessel value USD 74,609,000 Total assets USD 85,209,000 Outstanding debt USD 56,559,000 Short term payables USD 650,000 Total outstanding debt USD 57,209,000 Estimated project value USD 28,000,000 MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE
  • 33. 33 KEY FIGURES (Date of analysis 30.06.2016) Project Broker: Chris W. Svensson, Corporate Manager: Benjamin Ryeng-Hansen THE VESSEL(S) COMMERCIAL DETAILS INFO MEMORANDUM BASE CASE CASHFLOW FORECASTS BALANCE 30.06.2016 COMMENTS FINANCING Established: May 2014 Estimated share value per 1 % N/A Paid in capital: USD 49 000 000 Last reported sale pr 1 % N/A Uncalled capital : USD 0 Estimated IRR Buyer : N/A Accumulated dividends: USD N/A Estimated IRR Seller : N/A Estimated Expiry: N/A Latent tax liability vessel pr. 1% N/A Latent tax liability debt pr. 1% N/A CIT-Grieg Vessel(s) name: Star Lygra Star Minerva Type: Open-Hatch Bulk Carrier Open-Hatch Bulk Carrier DWT: 50,700 49,955 Yard: Hyundai Mipo, Korea Oshima SB Built: 2013 2008 Class: ABS DNV GL Flag: Cyprus Marshall Isl. Corporate management: Clarksons Platou Project Finance AS Disponent owner: Project price: USD Paid in capital: USD Uncalled capital: USD Bareboat charterer: Grieg Shipping II AS Commencement of charter: Expiry of charter: Daily BB rate: USD Estimated Residual: N/A Estimated IRR: N/A 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Operating revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Operating expenses Net operating cashflow Purchase/Sale of vessel Interest earned Interest expenses Paid in capital Drawdown/ Repayment long term debt Net financial items Net projected cash flow Estimated dividend Project financed in cooperation with CIT. Mortgage loan: N/A Balloon: Term: Quarterly instalments: Interest: Cash USD N/A Implicit vessel value USD Total assets USD Outstanding debt USD Short term payables USD Total outstanding debt USD Estimated project value USD MARKET REPORT 2016 – CLARKSONS PLATOU PROJECT FINANCE