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Now, it is your pay back time sir.
1. Now, It is your payback time Sir.
The Cyclical rebirth so accentuated in Hindu Mythology could have many a cynics. We may
and may not agree to the mortal concept of payback time in this animated world.
But we all agree there is payback time in Business and Economics. Our Business decisions
are slaves of our action and that is certainly paid back in premium or discount. The World is
no exception.
The decline of Crude oil has pricked the splendour of Balance sheet of many an oil producing
Country. The arrogance of $140 evaporated with ever declining Sale Price. The Commodity
importers like India, China and US may sing carol for a while in response. But the ominous
sign rests with the impending insinuation of declining demand in world economy. Fuel and
commodity if not warranted implies contracting consumption habit. How long will emerging
economy afford to keep singing this Carol?
US discovered Shale Gas, throwing intimidating challenges to the monopolistic imagination
of OPEC nations. The Oil price soaring beyond 140$ a barrel compelled US to invest more
than a Trillion Dollar of Capital into Oil and Gas Business to explore a viable alternate with
production cost hovering around 90-100 $ per barrel. No wonder OPEC is drawing a sadistic
pleasure at the bleeding balance sheet of US Companies. OPEC has still some leeway as their
cost lurch between 25 to 40 Dollars a barrel and is yet likely to sustain for some more time.
Who knows? The Bleeding Oil and Gas Companies in US with debt balance sheet size over
Trillion dollars could bring tomorrow the acerbic reminder of 2008 financial debacle of
Subprime crisis. The financial loss of 2008 left US walking with a plastered leg for next half
a decade. All this while Political adversaries like Russia, Iran and North Korea must have
comforted themselves at the US agony for having suffered similar financial disorientation
owing to US led sanctions and imposed political isolation.
The Master currency i.e. US dollar remained the prized possession for US economy till date
despite all the sufferings and struggle. US virtually dictated the world to save their national
surplus in dollar denominated US Bonds. Emergence of Euro was first half hearted
challenges and thereafter aspiring China is twisting and tweaking the balance by showing
seeds of all Machiavellian manipulation. China manipulated its currency strength through
artificial devaluation fuelling its export growth in pre 2008 era. The US turned the heat post
2008 through quantitative easing QE, printing more money, inviting inflation, devaluing
dollar and causing heartburning valuation erosion of dollar denominated Bonds.
US who virtually administered the World Economy, credit Market, Currency Market,
consumer market for so long is today a haggard sketch of past. Forget Europe, they perhaps
do not find a better abbreviation than PIGS (a similar sounding stink like PIG) to describe,
who once scaled Everest high in Political, financial and diplomatic world. Someone rightly
said- With Time, Kingdom declines and Empire rises.
What is stored in back yard of our domestic economy? If we look at the macroeconomic
Graph between 1998 to 2006, the Nation earned and built enormous Public resource. What
we earned we distributed among stakeholders in next onward years. Slew of Welfare oriented
Schemes were financed from that accrual.
2. A portion was squandered in this process by those unscrupulous giants who merit no mention.
An academic Giant and revered Economist presided over an insensitive, unaccountable Phase
of Indian Polity where subject`s welfare and their modest aspiration were reduced to
deplorable gloom.
There was resounding and majestic response from those devastated ordinary folk aspirations
causing a resolute historical political decision unfamiliar in Indian political history in last few
decades. People have voiced in favour of Modi-economics.
The rising aspiration has dwarfed our past achievement. You need to deliver now. Fiscal Vs
Monetary, High Interest Rate Vs Low Interest Rate, Soaring Sensex Vs Dampening low,
Growth Vs Recession, Job Vs indecision or Legislation vs. Ordinance.
Now, it is your payback time Sir.
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