Educational

1. "CLIMATE CHANGE
VARIABILITY AND
VULNERABILITY IN INDIA"
FOCUS ON GUJARAT, MAHARASHTRA, AND TELANGANA

2. IMPA C TS OF C LIMATE C H A N GE ON VA R IOU S H A ZA R D S
IN INDIA
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• HEATWAVES
• AIR QUALITY DEGRADATION
• EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
• COASTAL VULNERABILITY
• SHIFTING MONSOONS
• URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
• WATER SCARCITY
• ECOSYSTEM CHANGES
• HEALTH CONSEQUENCES

3. HEATWAVE
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• Heatwaves in India are increasing in frequency, intensity, and lethality.
• Projections indicate a rise in the annual number of heatwaves from 20 to 30.
• The average duration of heatwaves is expected to extend from 7 days to 10 days.
• Predicted fatalities due to heatwaves are set to double from 5,000 to 10,000 per year.
• India has witnessed a temperature increase of about 0.7°C between 1901 and 2018.
• Future forecasts indicate an estimated temperature rise of approximately 4.4°C by the end of the
twenty-first century compared to the recent past (the 1976–2005 average).
• These trends pose a severe threat to the Indian population. Heatwaves can result in health
problems like heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Infrastructure damage and crop failures are also
potential consequences.
Parameter Current Trend
Future Projection (2050)
Number of heatwaves
per year(India) 20 30
Gujarat 5 12
Maharashtra 7 15
Telangana 6 10
Average duration of
heatwaves 7 days 10 days
Number of deaths
caused by heatwaves

4. AIR QUALITY DEGRADATION
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• The concentration of PM2.5 (fine particulate matter that can penetrate deep into the lungs) is expected to increase by 10%-20% in
India by 2050, compared to 2015 levels.
• By 2030, air pollution is expected to cause 2.6 million premature deaths in India each year.
• Air pollution is already costing India $150 billion each year in lost productivity.
• Air pollution is estimated to reduce India's GDP by 8% by 2050.
• Air pollution is making India more vulnerable to climate change, such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts.
• Gujarat: The concentration of PM2.5 in Gujarat is projected to increase by 15-20% by 2050, compared to 2015 levels. Gujarat is
in a hot and dry climate, which makes it more difficult to disperse pollutants.
• Maharashtra: he concentration of PM2.5 in Maharashtra is projected to increase by 10-15% by 2050, compared to 2015 levels
.Mumbai is a coastal city, and it is prone to fog and haze. This can trap pollutants and make air quality worse.
• Telangana: The concentration of PM2.5 in Telangana is projected to increase by 5-10% by 2050, compared to 2015 levels. .
Telangana is located in a semi-arid region, and it is prone to dust storms. This can also contribute to air pollution.

5. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
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• While India witnessed 250 extreme climate events
(drought, floods, cyclones and compounding events like
floods and cyclones) between 1970 and 2005, it recorded
310 extreme weather events after 2005
• There has been an abrupt surge in the number of
extreme flood events since 2005. Between 1970 and
2004, 3 extreme flood events occurred per year on
average, but after 2005, the yearly average rose to 11.
Similarly, the annual average for districts affected by
floods until 2005 was 19, but after 2005 it jumped to 55.
• Gujarat: Gujarat has experienced a 50% increase in the
number of extreme weather events since 2005.
• Maharashtra: Maharashtra has experienced a 40%
increase in the number of extreme weather events since
2005.
• Telangana: Telangana has experienced a 30% increase
in the number of extreme weather events since 2005.

6. 6
VULNERABILITY
India is one of the most vulnerable countries to coastal hazards, such as sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion.
The IPCC projects that sea levels could rise by up to 1 meter by the end of the 21st century. This would inundate coastal
areas and displace millions of people. Storm surges, which are caused by cyclones and other weather systems, could also
become more frequent and severe. These surges could cause flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure. Coastal erosion
is also a major threat, as it can destroy beaches and coastlines.
• Sea level rise: 1 meter rise by 2100, displace 10 million people
in Mumbai by 2050.
• Storm surges: more frequent and severe, frequency increases
by 50% by 2100.
• Coastal erosion: accelerates, displaces 2 million people in
Tamil Nadu by 2050.
• Saltwater intrusion: becomes more common, affects 10 million
people in Gujarat by 2050.
• Diseases: spread increases, number of malaria cases
increases by 50% by 2050.
Cyclone hazard prone districts of India based on frequency of total
cyclones, total severe cyclones, maximum wind based on Vulnerability
Atlas (BMTPC 2006), PMP and PMSS associated with the cyclones

7. SHIFTING MONSOON
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• The monsoon is a vital part of the Indian climate, as it brings much-needed rain to the country. Climate
change is causing the monsoon to become more erratic and unpredictable. This is posing a serious threat
to India's agriculture, economy, and environment. The impacts of the shifting monsoon could include crop
failures, droughts, floods, and economic losses
•Crop yields: Crop yields could decline by up to
30% by 2050.
•Food production: Food production could decline by
up to 15% by 2050.
•Water availability: Water availability could decline
by up to 40% by 2050.
•Floods: Floods could become more frequent and
severe, affecting up to 100 million people by 2050.
•Droughts: Droughts could become more frequent
and severe, affecting up to 60 million people by
2050.
•Economic losses: Economic losses could reach up
to $1 trillion by 2050.

8. URBAN
HEAT
ISLAND
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Urban heat islands (UHIs) are areas in cities that are significantly warmer than the
surrounding rural areas. They are caused by the heat-trapping effect of buildings, roads,
and other infrastructure. UHIs can have a number of negative impacts on human health,
the environment, and the economy.
In India, UHIs are becoming more common due to the country's rapid urbanization. The
IPCC projects that UHIs in India could be up to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than the
surrounding rural areas by 2050.
•Heat-related deaths: UHIs could cause up to 100,000 additional heat-related deaths in
India by 2050.
•Reduced crop yields: UHIs could reduce crop yields by up to 10% by 2050.
•Increased air pollution: UHIs could increase air pollution levels by up to 20% by 2050.
•Damage to infrastructure: UHIs could damage infrastructure worth up to $100 billion
by 2050.
•Increased urban flooding: UHIs could increase the risk of urban flooding by up to 50%
by 2050.
A NASA map shows temperatures across
much of India and Pakistan on June 10,
2019. Delhi reached 48 degrees Celsius, or
118 F.Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth
Observatory

9. WATER SCARCITY
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THE IMPACTS OF WATER SCARCITY IN INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE IN THE FUTURE. ACCORDING TO THE IPCC, INDIA IS
EXPECTED TO FACE 40% WATER SCARCITY BY 2050
This could lead to:
•Reduced agricultural productivity: Water scarcity is
expected to reduce agricultural productivity by 20%,
leading to food shortages and price increases.
•Increased migration: Water scarcity could
force millions of people to migrate to other areas in
search of water.
•Spread of diseases: Water scarcity could lead to the
spread of waterborne diseases, such as cholera and
typhoid, affecting millions of people.
•Conflict over water resources: Water scarcity could
lead to conflict between different groups over water
resources, displacing thousands of people.
•Damage to infrastructure: Water scarcity could
damage infrastructure, such as dams and canals,
costing billions of dollars.

10. ECOSYSTEM CHANGE
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• Climate change is already having a significant impact on ecosystems in India. The melting of glaciers,
rising sea levels, shifting monsoon patterns, more extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity are
some of the ways that climate change is impacting ecosystems in India.
•Glaciers melting: The melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas is projected to cause the water levels in
rivers and lakes to rise by 1-3 meters by 2100. This
could displace millions of people and inundate
agricultural land.
•Sea level rise: Sea levels are projected to rise by
1 meter by 2100. This could inundate coastal areas
in India, including the Sundarbans mangrove forest.
•Loss of biodiversity: The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that
climate change could cause up to 70% of India's
plant and animal species to be at risk of extinction
by 2100.

11. HEALTH
CONSEQUENCES
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•Heat stress: Heat stress could cause 20% more deaths in India by 2030.
•Air pollution: Air pollution could cause 50% more deaths in India by 2050.
•Waterborne diseases: Waterborne diseases could cause 30% more cases
in India by 2050.
•Malaria: Malaria cases could increase by 50% in India by 2050.
•Diarrhea: Diarrhea cases could increase by 20% in India by 2050.

12. THANK YOU