Extracting a Force Readiness picture from your big data
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Grant McHerron delivers this presentation at MILCIS 2017, on how to extract a Force Readiness picture from the big data, within your existing systems. He covers what sort of questions are being asked, where to look for the information, and how to present it.
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Extracting a Force Readiness picture from your big data
- 1. EXTRACTING A REAL-TIME FORCE READINESS PICTURE FROM BIG DATA GRANT MCHERRON
- 2. OVERVIEW • Force Readiness assessments • Big Data and your C2 Systems • Effectively accessing the information in your C2 Systems (silos, staff, tools, access) • Using that information to assess Force Readiness (encoding against common elements, current vs future status, OLAP) • Big Data is not everything • Conclusion/ Q&A
- 3. FORCE READINESS ASSESSMENTS Assessments of Force Readiness can come in many forms, including: • Directives from Head Quarters to provide specific types of assets & trained people in readiness to meet Directed, Minimum and Operational levels of capability. • Forward looking assessments and evaluations to determine the impacts of maintenance, staffing and process changes.
- 4. THE INFORMATION UNDERLYING FORCE READINESS ASSESSMENTS • How many qualified crew do you have? • How many assets are available now and into the future? • What maintenance is scheduled or expected? • What are your projected availabilities for crew & assets?
- 5. ACCESSING THE UNDERLYING INFORMATION CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE SYLLABI COURSE RESULTS CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS ISYOUR INFORMATION IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT C2 SYSTEMS?
- 6. STEPS TO OBTAINING A CONSOLIDATED VIEW 1. Provide a single point of reference 2. Establish shared definitions for common information elements 3. Have trained, authorised staff with the right tools
- 7. STEP 1: SINGLE POINT OF REFERENCE • MUST AVOID CREATING DATA SILOS • COMMON C2 SYSTEM ACROSS ALL PLATFORMS & DIVISIONS – Single vendor to deal with – All units using the same coded information & definitions – One central database to access • DATA WAREHOUSE – Addition of yet another computer system – More infrastructure to purchase & maintain – Processes to establish and maintain – Must be refreshed frequently at a suitable rate
- 8. STEP 2: ESTABLISH COMMON INFORMATION ELEMENTS • Provide a common definition of elements including maintenance status, sortie results, qualifications, currencies, etc • Must be defined at HQ level and promulgated to all units • Provides a basis for comparison across units & platforms • Facilitates the encoding of Force Readiness directives into element comparisons
- 9. STEP 3:TRAINED STAFF WITH EFFECTIVE TOOLS • Approved staff with access to the database(s) underlying your C2 Systems • Suitable reporting and analytic tools such as MS SQL Server Reporting Services, Crystal Reports, etc • Vendor provided data dictionaries • Trained in using the tools to access the information • Access to Subject Matter Experts to help determine the required reports and metrics
- 10. THE CONSOLIDATED VIEW OFYOUR INFORMATION CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE SYLLABI CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS CURRENCIES & QUALIFICATIONS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS SINGLE POINT OF REFERENCE NORMALISED DATA FEED STANDARDISED CODING
- 11. AUTOMATING FORCE READINESS ASSESSMENTS • Force Readiness Directives • Encoding a Directive • Applying the encoded Directive • Current vs Future reporting • Whole of Force reporting
- 12. EXAMPLE FORCE READINESS DEFINITIONS • Large transport aircraft and suitable crews that are ready within 24 hours to deploy for two weeks of humanitarian assistance to the Asia/Pacific region • Search & Rescue aircraft with crew that can reach a specific area of coverage within one hour of notification • Combat aircraft with specific munitions and specially trained crew ready to deploy within two hours
- 13. ENCODING A DIRECTIVE • AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY – Aircraft can not already be assigned to a high priority mission – Aircraft must be able to arrive at the staging base with sufficient time for checks, refueling and loading – Aircraft must have sufficient flight hours before its next major maintenance • CREW AVAILABILITY – Located on base or can return to base within required times – Holding suitable qualifications that do not expire during the deployment window – Required currencies in place and not expiring during the deployment window
- 14. APPLY THE ENCODED DIRECTIVE • Having encoded the Directive it can be applied against the database using a series of queries • Examples include: SELECT ALL AssetNumber FROM AircraftWHERE location = ‘AMB’ AND MissionPriority < 3 SELECT ALL Name FROM CrewWHERE Location = ‘AMB’ AND MedicalExpiry <Today()+21 • Ideally these queries would be automated via scripts for a vendor developed engine
- 15. TRAFFIC LIGHTS AND CONTROL PANELS • Once a Directive has been assessed, it can be displayed as an easily understood “Traffic Light:” Red = Failed to meet the Directive Amber = Just met the Directive Green = Exceeded the Directive (eg: multiple assets & crew available) • Multiple Directives can be displayed together in a “Control Panel” facilitating comparison across units, wings or groups.
- 16. COPING WITH NEW OR CHANGED DIRECTIVES • Ability to modify and/or add Directives without having to re-code the assessment engine. • Avoid developers having to know Directives that are classified as Secret or higher. • Should be able to encode using your common information elements and assessments. • The assessment engine should only change when a new type of assessment is required.
- 17. APPLYING MULTIPLE DIRECTIVES • Readiness assessment is made up of multiple Directives. • Must be able to tag a Directive as “exclusive.” • Must be able to assess Directives in order of priority (highest first) and exclusiveness.
- 18. HISTORICAL VIEW • Once a Force Directive has been encoded it can be assessed on a daily basis • The results of each day’s assessment can be stored in a new results set • This historical view can let commanders assess the factors that were in effect at peak & trough readiness points • As with any other results sets, this can be used to perform trend analysis and identify areas of concern
- 19. CURRENT VS FUTURE ASSESSMENT • Project readiness into the future • Take current status and scheduled events into account when looking forward • Quickly identify areas where staffing & asset levels need attention to maintain readiness
- 20. WHOLE OF FORCE REPORTING • Multiple Directives can be assessed and the results kept to allow Force Readiness views at the Unit,Wing, FEG andWhole of Force levels. • Approved staff can access readiness information and “drill down” through the Force structure to identify unit performances • Allows approved staff to identify how specific Directives were (or were not) being met
- 21. EFFORT VS PAYBACK • Establishing consolidated reporting will require effort, planning and direction to implement • Will significantly reduce the mandraulic effort associated with assessing Force Readiness • Benefits go well beyond Force Readiness assessments • Can also be used to gain insights into operational improvements
- 22. REAL WORLD ISSUES Currently mining well over 15 years of training data. Replacing instinct with knowledge when selecting candidates and their career path. Also being applied within FEGs for pilot progression. Importance of common information elements to help know what information to keep and how to code it.
- 23. BIG DATA – GOOD & BAD The Good: • Identification of trends • Assessment of the impacts from changes • Insight into operational improvements • Must have top-down driven common information elements The Not-So-Good: • Projects forward based on past experiences • Past doesn’t always predict the future • Information overload • Investment required to exploit Big Data
Editor's Notes
- Introduction
- These are some of the points I’ll be addressing today. We’ll look at the information required to answer a Force Readiness assessment, consider where that information could be located, look at encoding Force Readiness Directives and then apply them to your information.
- Assessing the Force Readiness picture is a combination of verification against assigned directives from HQ and “What If” analysis performed at the FEG, WG, & SQN Levels. The Directives from senior levels are generally “Yes/No” assessments and these are the ones we will primarily focus on.
- These are some of the questions that need to be answered in order to address Force Readiness assessments. As you can see, the information required to support these assessments is exactly the type of information found in your various C2 Systems. Typically that information is buried within the different values stored in those systems and can also be spread across multiple systems. Which qualifications & currencies are required to support a specific Force Readiness Directive? Is your training pipeline producing the skilled people you need when you will need them?
- It is not uncommon to find that the information you require to answer a Force Readiness Directive is spread across multiple C2 Systems, each of which is a silo of information. Each system will have its own way of tracking asset status, planned missions, crew qualifications & currencies, etc. Manually extracting the information takes excessive time & effort, even with the reports & extracts provided by the various systems. Need to assess readiness now and into the future, not using information that is days or weeks in the past.
- We will go into these steps in more detail next but they capture the three key tasks you need to complete in order to commence the automated assessment of Force Readiness from the information in your C2 Systems.
- The first step in obtaining a consolidated view of the information that will support Force Readiness assessments is to have a single point of reference rather than having to go to multiple different systems. Creating data silos at the Unit or Wing level creates massive problems when trying to make the most of big data. Ideally you would have a single C2 system in use across all platforms as this reduces the effort, infrastructure and processes required to generate a common view. If that cannot be achieved you will need to establish a Data Warehouse to consolidate information from your various systems into a single point of reference. This will incur the costs & effort associated with introducing a new computer system to your network (accreditation, purchase, maintenance, etc) along with establishing the processes associated with extracting information from the various systems. The automation of Force Readiness assessments is only effective if the information being used is current. Need to determine suitable refresh rates.
- It is vital that you establish a common set of information elements. No point in having one unit or platform using five different maintenance status values when everyone else has seven. It’s very hard to compare currencies when the same item is coded differently across each platform. These are easier to establish if you have a common C2 System across all platforms. If using a Data Warehouse you will need to establish rules to translate common elements from their specific system values into the common values. This will be easier if you have already established these common element values.
- Just as you wouldn’t deploy without effective equipment and training, so too you should ensure that you have trained, authorised staff with good reporting tools who are familiar with the database structure and have access to SMEs who can advise them on the information required & metrics to use. The Data Dictionary is a very important aspect of staff training as it describes how your information is stored within a C2 system’s database. Your vendor should supply one and keep it updated with successive releases. While this form of reporting can be performed by a vendor’s FSR, ideally your staff should be able to produce them as it will be faster and more effective for each unit, WG or FEG. This allows the FSR to focus on the more detailed and difficult aspects of the system.
- Once you have established a single point of reference with common information elements and trained staff with effective tools, you are ready to start producing reports & metrics to improve your operations. It is at this point that you’re ready to start assessing against Force Readiness Directives.
- These are the areas we will review when progressing towards an automated Force Readiness assessment.
- Most Force Readiness Directives are typically classified as Secret or higher. Based on general understandings of Directed Level of Capability statements, here are a few conceptual Directives that we could assess against common C2 information. For this presentation we’ll use the first one.
- Here’s how we could determine how many large transports and crews we have available to meet this directive. This is using some example common information elements (such as Aircraft Type, Mission Priority, Qualifications, etc) to show how once these elements are specified they can encode aspects of a Directive. It also indicates why the information source you are using needs to be kept current.
- By applying a series of queries against the single point of reference database the matching aircraft and crews can be obtained. Provided at least one aircraft & crew are available the directive has been met You can also report on how well the directive is being met (eg: multiple aircraft & crews available, not just one)
- The easiest display of Directives is via the classic three-colour “Traffic Light.” Use of Amber allows the identification of boundary conditions where perhaps scheduling, maintenance or training changes may be required to provide additional buffer when meeting Directives.
- You shouldn’t have to get your vendor to re-code the assessment engine whenever your Directives change. Creating an abstracting layer that allows Directives to be encoded and applied against your single-source of information will take longer to build but be more robust to the inevitable changes that occur over time. You also do not require developers with Secret or higher clearances to write the engine as they will not know the details of your Directives.
- You will have multiple Directives to apply when assessing readiness and in many cases, once you meet a Directive with a specific asset and crew, they cannot then be used again to meet another Directive. It is therefore vital that you have the ability to tag a Directive as “exclusive” which ensures any asset or crew that matches cannot be used for another Directive. But, there’s no point in assigning the only crew that can meet a high priority Directive to a lower priority one, so you need to be able to assess Directives in order of priority (highest first) and exclusivity.
- Having developed a system to apply encoded directives to your single-source of information, you can run it automatically every day to ensure you always have a current view of Force Readiness as well as looking back over time. As with any historical data, this can then be assessed further to identify trends in maintaining your Force Readiness.
- Once again, the use of an automated system to run encoded Force Readiness assessments on a daily basis could also be used to perform assessments into the future, building up a display of readiness levels.
- Once Directives are being regularly assessed and recorded for all units, the information can be accumulated upwards to Wing and Group levels, allowing “Whole of Force” reporting and “drill-downs” into the details behind various results. Additionally, Wing and Group level Directives can also be encoded, assessed and displayed.
- Looking into establishing automated assessments of encoded Directives. Not easy to set up (parameterisation, developing an encoding method, writing the system to perform the assessments). Yet to quantify the savings in man power and the benefit of up-to-date display of Readiness information at all levels but it is expected to be quite significant.
- Ocean is currently working with RAAF to analyse well over 15 years of training data that has been collected through ULTRAFP. This is allowing the identification of traits and abilities across students to help identify candidates that have a higher chance of graduating and identify those best suited for specific areas (eg: ACO, fast jet, etc). It is highlighting the importance of establishing common information elements and also identifying the information you will need to have in order to make your assessments.
- Using big data means you are always looking backwards to project likely outcomes in the future. The past doesn’t always predict the future but it can give you a good appreciation for what is likely. Without common information elements you may not be able to perform the analysis you need (Garbage In, Garbage Out). Requires access to timely information (no point knowing where we were two months ago – also need to know where we are now & are likely to be in the future)