this is presentation prepared for Gels program

1. Study of Political
conflict & Violence
and their Economic
Impact in Nepal and
Bangladesh
Date: 30th Jan 2019
31/01/2020
1
GEL’s Program
Group 3
Sabin Koirala (M191242)
Mohammad Amir
Kushtar Asrankulov

2. Introduction
 Political conflict is the incompatibility
between social systems with regard to
the security of a population, integrity
of a territory, or the maintenance of a
political, socio-economic or cultural
and national or international order.
(International encyclopedia of social
& behavioral science, 2015)
 Political violence is violence
penetrated by people or government
to achieve political goals.
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3. Causes of Political
Conflict and Violence
3
According to Frances Stewart & Graham K Brown
(2015), the root causes of political conflicts are:
a. Economic inequalities
b. Social inequalities
c. Political inequalities
d. Cultural inequalities
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4. Major Political events in Nepal (2010-2019)
 2010- Constitution assembly voted to extend the deadline for drafting constitution.
 2011- UN ends it’s peace monitoring mission.
 2012- Constitution assembly dissolved after failing to make constitution.
 2013- Election for constitution assembly. Congress won election with no majority.
 2014- Protests for federalism in the basis of caste.
 2015- Promulgation of new constitution. Start of fedearalism
 2016- Conflict in Madhesh about constitution.6 month blockade by India.
 2017- Local level, Province level and Federal election.
 2018- Formation of government in local level, province level and federal level
 2019- Banning of political party, Biplov by government. Implementation of federalism
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5. Major Political events in Bangladesh (2010-2019)
 2011- Arrests and trials of members accused of war crimes of the political party Jamaat-e-Islami had begun.
 2013- Sheikh Hasina vetoes Islamist bill to outlaw criticism of Islam. Ghulam Azam, leader of the Jamaat-e-
Islami party, was convicted of war crimes committed during the 1971 war of independence
 2014- 10th general election. Sheikh Hasina was elected
 2015- Bangladesh bans Islamist militant group Ansarullah Bangla Team, which claims responsibility for killing
and assaulting several pro-secular public figures.
 2016- The Islamic State group claims an attack on a cafe in Dhaka's diplomatic quarter in which 20 hostages,
including 18 foreigners, were killed
 2017- Rohingya Muslims who fled military action in Myanmar's Rakhine state and sought refuge in
Bangladesh
 2018- 11th general election
 2019- Bangladesh Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina was re elected as the Prime Minister for a record 4th
term in the 11th general election.
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6. Research Questions6
 How is the trends of conflict changing in Nepal
& Bangladesh?
 Is more no of conflicts is located in capital city?
 Is there relationship between unemployment and
political conflict?
 Are income inequality and Poverty the cause for
political conflict?
 Is economic growth affected by political
conflict?
 Are foreign direct investment and tourism
revenue affected by political conflict and
violence?
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7. Objectives
 To analyze the changing tends of political
conflict & violence in Nepal and
Bangladesh.
 To analyse the causes of political conflict in
Nepal and Bangladesh.
 To analyse impacts of political conflict in
national economy.
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8. Literature Review
 Becker’s theory of crime (Becker 1968), Grossman (1991) explain about
opportunity cost approach that if employment increases, amount of
time people provide to insurgency declines.
 Fearon (2008) model predicts insurgent violence will increase in income
inequality, as relatively poor rebels see more to gain from expropriating
resources from the relatively rich.
 Paul Colliers’s research at world bank says that high rate of unemployed
youth has a significant correlation with conflict onset. He mentioned
about vicious cycle” Poverty could cause conflict and conflict then leads
to more poverty”
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9. Literature Review
 Persson and Tabellini (2006) finds that social instability and poltical violence
often negatively affect economic growth.
 Neoclassical growth theory predicts that an economy recovers relatively quickly
and converges to it’s steady state. So, there is no effect of short term conflict in
economic growth.
 Deudney (1991) and Simon (1996) have listed that political conflict are caused
with the notion of increasing resource scarcity. Similarly, resource scarcity
based on environment would encourage joint effort for conflict.
 UNSG (2010) explains that environment degradation occurs in conflict and post
conflict when it interacts with socio-economic and hydro-metrological factors
and competition for scarce natural resources.
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10. Methodology
 Secondary data taken from (2010-2019) ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
data set) for both countries (Nepal & Bangladesh).
 Economic indicators (unemployment rate, GDP growth, Tourism revenue, Foreign direct
investment, inequality index, poverty index) were taken from World bank data set.
 Data consist of Event date, Event type, Sub event type, Actors involved, Place of event,
Longitude, Latitude, Story of event, fatalities and timestamp.
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Events (6)
a. Battles
b. Explosion/Remote violence
c. Protests
d. Riots
e. Strategic Development
f. Violence against civilians
Sub Events (25)
a. Abduction/force disappearance
b. Agreement
c. Air/drone strike
d. Armed Clash
e. Arrests
f. Change to group/activity
g. Chemical weapon
h. Disrupted weapon use
i. Excessive force against protestors
j. Government regains territory

11. Methodology
 Data analysis was done using excel, strata. Time series data analysis for national level data(Nepal &
Bangladesh ) and cross section data analysis was done for sub national data (7 provinces of Nepal)
 Graphical presentation (pie charts, bar charts, time series graphs) was done.
 ARC GIS was used for mapping the conflict location, event s and fatalities in past 10 years,
geographically in maps of countries.
 Comparison of the political conflict scenario was done between Bangladesh and Nepal from 2010 to
2019.
 Using time series data correlation was done between no of conflict and fatalities, unemployment
labor force and no of conflicts, no of conflicts and economic growth, no of conflicts and tourism
revenue, no of conflicts and foreign direct investment for both countries.
 Using cross section data subnational data of 7 provinces were taken for Nepal and correlation was
done between no of conflicts and underemployment rate, Poverty index and no of conflict and
inequality index (Ginni coefficient) and no of conflicts.
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12. 31/01/2020
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Distribution of Conflicts in Nepal and Bangladesh
Analysis
and
Results

13. Distribution of conflict in
Kathmandu and Dhaka
Out of 65 district percentage of
conflict in Dhaka district- 21.76%
Out of 77 districts, percentage of
conflict in Kathmandu district-
18.75%
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Name of event Kathmandu (%
conflict)
Dhaka (% of
conflict)
Total conflict 18.75% 21.76%
Battle 3.57% 7.36%
Explosion 7.26% 30.51%
Protests 23.95% 38.81%
Riots 12.92% 18.93%
Strategic
development
9.31% 20%
Violence against
citizens
9.55% 10.69%
Population in Dhaka is
6.3% of total Population
Population in Kathmandu is
5% of total population in
Nepal

14. Analysis and
Results
14
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 41 14 21 6 6 51 8 18 13 38
Bangladesh 613 573 471 813 391 503 420 242 242 354
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Nooffatalities
Trends of fatalities in polictical conflict
Correlation value between
no of conflicts and no of
fatalities for Nepal is + 0.47
Correlation value between
no of conflicts and no of
fatalities for Bangladesh is +
0.88

15. Fatalities per conflict
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 7.6923077 4.1297935 3.9179104 0.8759124 2.4 6.7819149 2.0100503 3.358209 2.0537125 1.5428339
Bangladesh 23.45065 24.719586 25.487013 29.671533 34.817453 26.25261 51.157125 41.868512 20.066335 22.972096
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NOOFFATALITIESPER100CONFLICT
FATALITIES PER CONFLICT
Average fatalities per 100
conflict in Nepal is 3.03
Average fatalities per 100
conflict in Bangladesh is
27.66

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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict according to event in Nepal
Battle
Exploisions
Protests
Riots
Strategic development
Violence aganinst citizens
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Noofconflict
Trends of different conflicts in Bangladesh
Battle
Exploisions
Protests
Riots
1% 3%
58%
29%
4%
5%
Type of Conflicts in Nepal in 10
years
Battle
Explosions
Protests
Riots
Strategic Development
Violence against citizens
10%
1%
26%
45%
2%
16%
Type of conflicts in Bangladesh in 10
years
Battle
Explosions
Protests
Riots
Strategic Development
Violence against citizens

17. 17
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and unemployed
labor force for Nepal is -0.25
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and unemployed
labor force for Bangladesh is -
0.69
Unemployment
and Conflict

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and unemployed
male labor force for Nepal is -
0.27
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and unemployed
male labor force for Bangladesh
is -0.61
Unemployment
and Conflict
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 125437.56 124706.44 127995.48 122747.45 112661.27 111296.1 113302.58 99382.435 104809.5 108006.32
Bangladesh 1266295.4 1319185.7 1360198.9 1407603.8 1419435.9 1428158.2 1409733 1567494.8 1591813.3 1620980.3
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
Unemployedmalelaborforce
Trends of unemployed male labour force

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and real GDP
growth rate for Nepal is +0.36
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and real GDP
growth rate for Bangladesh is -
0.70
Conflict and
Economic Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 4.816 3.422 4.781 4.129 5.989 3.323 0.589 8.223 6.658 7.1
Bangladesh 5.572 6.464 6.521 6.014 6.061 6.553 7.113 7.284 7.864 7.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
RealGdpgrowth
Trends of economic growth rate

20. 20
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and increase In
tourism revenue for Nepal is
+0.2536
Correlation value between no
of conflicts increase and
tourism revenue for Bangladesh
is -0.57
Conflict and
Tourism Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Nepal 3.811 -9.904 11.388 2.6 20.885 15.332 -27.826 40.331 16.679
Bangladesh 33.766 -5.825 8.247 24.762 17.557 -2.403 43.582 60.523 60.24
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%INCREASEINTOURISMREVENUE
TRENDS OF TOURISM REVENUE

21. 21
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 533 339 536 685 250 752 398 536 633 2463
Bangladesh 2614 2318 1848 2740 1123 1916 821 578 1206 1541
0
1000
2000
3000
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in 10 years
Correlation value between no
of conflicts and FDI per GDP for
Nepal is +0.0372
Correlation value between no
of conflicts increase and FDI per
GDP for Bangladesh is -0.032
Conflict and
Foreign
Investment
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nepal 0.239 0.471 0.602 0.536 0.163 0.206 0.263 0.505 0.578 0.377
Bangladesh 0.91 0.702 0.991 0.965 0.864 0.94 0.905 0.982 0.76 0.812
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
FDIpergdp
Trends of FDI per GDP

22. Regional conflict Data of Nepal
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Province 1 93 71 105 91 20 114 27 95 65 390
Province 2 90 44 87 82 42 329 100 145 122 476
Province 3 186 141 205 270 141 142 111 142 220 648
Province 4 45 15 32 56 22 29 19 27 39 211
Province 5 72 42 57 80 15 80 114 55 62 280
Province 6 26 12 19 71 4 46 17 39 34 174
Province 7 21 14 31 35 6 18 10 33 91 284
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Noofconflict
Trends of conflict in Provinces of Nepal

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24. 24
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Correlation value between no of
conflicts and no of fatalities is
0.53
No of conflict and
fatalities in 7
provinces of
Nepal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 1071 1517 2206 495 857 442 543
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Noofconflict
Conflict in provinces in ten years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 27 83 30 6 45 16 9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nooffatalities
Fatalitites in Provinces of Nepal in 10 years

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Correlation value between head
count poverty ratio and no of
conflict is -0.5
No of conflict and
Head count
poverty rato in 7
provinces of
Nepal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 1071 1517 2206 495 857 442 543
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Noofconflict
Conflict in provinces in ten years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 16.7403 26.68816 20.59017 20.86862 24.52303 38.82891 45.60712
0
10
20
30
40
50
Headcountpovertyrate
Head count poverty rate in Provinces (2010)

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Correlation value between MPI
and no of conflict is -0.31
No of conflict and
Multidimensional
Poverty index in 7
provinces of Nepal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 1071 1517 2206 495 857 442 543
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Noofconflict
Conflict in provinces in ten years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 19.7 47.9 12.2 14.2 29.9 51.2 33.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MPI
Multidimensional Poverty Index in Provinces (2016)

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31/01/2020
Correlation value between Gini
coefficient and no of conflict is
+0.40
No of conflict and
Income inequality in 7
provinces of Nepal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 1071 1517 2206 495 857 442 543
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Noofconflict
Conflict in provinces in ten years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 28.92736 29.49599 35.32992 34.65926 32.48511 27.00602 30.21657
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GINiCoefficient
Income inequality in Provinces(2010)

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32. 32
31/01/2020
Correlation value between under
employment percentage and no
of conflict is -0.36
No of conflict and
underemployment in 7
provinces of Nepal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 1071 1517 2206 495 857 442 543
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Noofconflict
Conflict in provinces in ten years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Provinces 26.16476 24.65074 25.73371 30.07714 31.89296 22.08036 38.81868
0
10
20
30
40
50
Underemploymentpercentage
Underemployment percentage in provinces (2010)

33. Conclusion
 No of conflicts per year and fatalities is decreasing in Bangladesh whereas no of conflicts per
year and fatalities is nearly constant in Nepal. Protests and Riot events are more prominent in
both the countries. Conflicts in Bangladesh are more violent than conflicts in Nepal. No of
fatalities per conflict is decreasing for both the countries.
 No of conflicts is higher in capital city than other places which is about 20% of the total no of
conflict. Protest event is more prominent in capital city which is 24% for Nepal and 39% for
Bangladesh.
Conclusions from time series data analysis
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Independent
Variable
Dependent Variable Correlation
value (Nepal)
Correlation value
(Bangladesh)
Conclusion
No of fatalities No of conflict +0.46 +0.88 There exist positive relationship between no of conflicts and no of
fatalities.
No of conflict No of unemployed
labor force
-0.25 -0.69 There is negative correlation between no of unemployed labor force
and no of conflicts in both countries.
No of conflict No of unemployed male
labor force
-0.27 -0.62 There is negative correlation between no of unemployed male labor
force and no of conflicts in both countries.
Economic growth rate No of conflict +0.36 -0.69 There is positive correlation between economic growth rate and no
of conflict in Nepal but negative in Bangladesh
Increase in tourism
revenue
No of conflict +0.25 -0.57 There is positive correlation between increase in tourism revenue for
Nepal but negative correlation for Bangladesh
Foreign direct
investment per GDP
No of conflict 0 0 There exist no relationship between FDI per GDP and no of conflict

34. Conclusion
Conclusions from cross sectional data analysis of Nepal
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Independent
Variable
Dependent Variable Correlation
value
Conclusion
No of fatalities No of conflict +0.5262 There exist positive relationship between no of conflicts and fatalities
No of conflict Headcount poverty
ratio
-0.5 There exist negative relationship between head count poverty ratio and
no of conflict
No of conflict Multidimensional
Poverty index
-0.31 There exist negative relationship between MPI index and no of conflict
No of conflict Under employment
ratio
-0.36 There exist negative relationship between underemployment and no of
conflict
No of conflict Income inequality +0.40 There is positive relationship between no of conflict and income
inequality
Literature study shows that environment degradation is responsible for political conflict
and also political conflict causes environment degradation.

35. Limitation
Results and conclusions are only applicable for Nepal and
Bangladesh. 10 years time series data is considered for analysis
due to time limitation and data availability. Due to lack of data
availability, cross section data analysis is done in 7 provinces of
Nepal.
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36. References
Nicholson, M. (1992). CONFLICT. In Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict
(Cambridge Studies in International Relations, pp. 9-10). Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511598739.003
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Conflict Trends Report, No. 24, April2014,p.3,
https://www.acleddata.com/research-andpublications/conflict-trends-reports/.
Krug E, Dahlberg L, Mercy J. et alWorld report on violence and health. Geneva: World Health
Organization, 2002
Aberg, Rune. 2001. “Equilibrium Unemployment, Search Behaviour and Unemployment
Persistency.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 25:131-47
Alesina, Alberto. 1988. Macroeconomics and Politics. NBER Macroeconomic Annual.
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
Jong-A-Pin, R. 2009. “On the measurement of political instability andits impact on economic
growth.” European Journal of Political Economy 25: 15-29.
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Any Questions?