Royal Dutch Shell Downstream Open House

Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018
Royal Dutch Shell plc
March 21, 2018
Downstream Open House
Delivering a world-class investment case
#makethefuture

John Abbott
Downstream Director
Royal Dutch Shell

Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018 3
Definitions &
cautionary note
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC
proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions.
The Mountains and Oceans scenarios are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and they are designed to stretch management thinking and even to consider events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios
therefore, are not intended to be prediction of likely future events or outcomes. Accordingly, investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
Operating costs are defined as underlying operating expenses, which are operating expenses less identified items. Organic free cash flow is defined as free cash flow excluding inorganic capital investment and divestment
proceeds. Unit costs for Refining and Trading are defined as operating expenses divided by refinery intake volumes. Yield on costs for Marketing are defined as CCS earnings excluding identified items divided by operating
expenses. Integrated indicative margin is defined as a theoretical margin available to be captured by our integrated portfolio of Refining and Trading assets excluding portfolio impact. Breakeven margin is defined as minimum
integrated margin required for zero earnings in Refining and Trading.. Gross margin is defined as net proceeds less cost of goods sold, on a CCS basis, and primary transport expenses. Income per site is defined as ratio of
CCS earnings excluding identified items to the total number of Retail branded sites. Sales by region is defined as sales volumes across each of the regions Americas, East and Europe & Africa. Earnings per FTE is defined as
ratio of CCS earnings excluding identified items to the number of employees in Lubricants, Aviation and Specialties. Clean CCS ROACE (Return on Average Capital Employed) is defined as defined as the sum of CCS earnings
attributable to shareholders excluding identified items for the current and previous three quarters, as a percentage of the average capital employed for the same period. Capital employed consists of total equity, current debt
and non-current debt. Capital investment comprises capital expenditure, exploration expense excluding well write-offs, new investments in joint ventures and associates, new finance leases and investments in Integrated Gas,
Upstream and Downstream securities, all of which on an accruals basis.. Divestments comprises proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment and businesses, joint ventures and associates, and other Integrated Gas,
Upstream and Downstream investments, reported in “Cash flow from investing activities (CFFI)”, adjusted onto an accruals basis and for any share consideration received or contingent consideration recognised upon
divestment, as well as proceeds from the sale of interests in entities while retaining control (for example, proceeds from sale of interest in Shell Midstream Partners, L.P.), This presentation contains the following forward-looking
Non-GAAP measures: Organic Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, Capital Investment, CCS Earnings less identified items, Operating Expenses, ROACE, Capital Employed and Divestments. We are unable to provide a
reconciliation of the above forward-looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the above Non-GAAP measure to the most comparable
GAAP financial measure is dependent on future events some which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures consistent
with the company accounting policies and the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in
respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Royal Dutch Shell plc’s financial
statements. The financial measures provided by strategic themes represent a notional allocation of ROACE, capital employed, capital investment, free cash flow, organic free cash flow and underlying operating expenses of
Shell’s strategic themes. Shell’s segment reporting under IFRS 8 remains Integrated Gas, Upstream, Downstream and Corporate.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where
references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.
These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to entities over which
Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. Entities
over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell
in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch
Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current
expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-
looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections
and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition’, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’,
‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal
Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;
(b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks
associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject
to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political
risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m)
changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in
their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in
Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2017 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation
and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, March 21, 2018. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to
publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the
forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from
including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov

Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018 4
Summary Key messages
 Significant and increasing cash and returns to support world-class investment case
 Increasing portfolio resilience, leveraging technology, digitalisation and
new business models
 Transformational and profitable growth
 Organic free cash flow per annum:
 by 2020: $6-7 billion
 by 2025: $9-12 billion
 Capital employed by 2025: Oil Products: + 30-35%; Chemicals: +>50%
 ROACE >15%
 Leading through the Energy Transition
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment
case
Strong
license
to operate

Strategic
themes
delivery:
on track
* 2019 – 21: 2016 RT $60 per barrel, mid-cycle Downstream
** Includes Deep water in cash engines and Shales in growth priorities by 2020
Price sensitivity:
+/- $10 Brent =
+/- ~$6 billion CFFO
Capital employed
($ bln
end 2017)
Free
cash flow
($ bln p.a)
ROACE
(%)
~59% ~14 ~9
~27% ~2 ~4
~6% ~(1) ~(4)
~15
~12
283 ~28 ~6
Capital employed
($ bln)
Free
cash flow*
($ bln p.a)
ROACE
(%)
~70% 25-30 >10
~20% 1-2 ~5
~5% (2) - (1) ~5
25-30
>5
~290 30-35 ~10
2019-21** ~$602017 ~$54
Strategic
themes
Cash engines
Growth
priorities
Emerging
opportunities
Organic FCF
Divestments &
acquisitions
Total (incl.
Corporate)

Downstream:
Leadership Team
John Abbott
Downstream Director
Lori Ryerkerk
EVP Manufacturing
Huibert Vigeveno
EVP Global Commercial
István Kapitány
EVP Retail
Martin Bambridge*
Downstream
General Counsel
John Hollowell*
EVP Pipelines
Fabian Ziegler*
EVP Contracting
& Procurement
Graham van’t Hoff
EVP Chemicals
Andrew Smith
EVP Trading & Supply
Bjorn Fermin
EVP Downstream
Finance
Gerard Penning
EVP Downstream
Human Resources
* Not present today

Downstream:
An integrated story
Refining
Customers
Supply &
Trading
Upstream &
Integrated Gas
Chemicals
Retail
Global Commercial

Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
8
Downstream:
Business
environment
* Cracker base chemicals (Aromatics, derivatives, Ethylene, Propylene and Isobutylene). Source HIS/Shell analysis
Million barrels per day
Oil and liquid demand outlook
Petrochemicals* demand in kT per annum
Chemicals demand outlook
Demand for Oil
Products and
petrochemicals is still
growing in the 2030s
 Major growth in demand, in excess of GDP growth
 Chemicals enabling CO2 reduction
 Demand still expands well into the 2030s
 Passenger vehicles consumption represents
~25% of overall liquid hydrocarbon demand
N. America S. America Europe
Middle East Asia Others
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia 37%
Asia 52%
IEA New Policy scenarioIEA Current Policy scenario
Shell ‘Oceans’ scenario Shell ‘Mountains’ scenario

Oil Products:
Business
environment
Company analysis
Million vehicles/year
Global vehicle sales
Million vehicles
Global vehicle fleet
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) Battery EV (BEV)Internal combustion engine (ICE)
 An aggressive EV scenario – not a forecast: one example

Downstream
Capital employed and volumes based as per end Q4 2017. Capital investment is in period 2018-2020.
 Further strengthen
our financial
performance
 Upgrading
our portfolio
 Chemicals
growth priority
Cash engine
Marketing Refining & Trading Chemicals
Growth priority
$17 billion
6.6 mboe/d
$24 billion
2.6 mboe/d
$15 billion
~18 mtpa
$3-4 billion
Capital employed: Capital employed:
Sales volumes:
Capital Investment:
Refinery processing:
Capital employed:
Sales volumes:
$4-5 billionCapital investment:

Downstream
strategy:
A reminder
Source brand preference: Ipsos – Global Customer Tracker (covering 30+ markets)
 HSSE – a core value
11
Cash engine
Marketing Refining & Trading Chemicals
Growth priority
 Global #1 Brand
 Differentiated Fuels & Lubricants
 Growth
 Non-fuels retailing
 Low Carbon Fuels
 Large, complex integrated sites
in Trading hubs
 Competitiveness
 Rationalization nearing
completion
 Advantaged and flexible
feedstocks
 Strong product portfolio
 Proprietary technology
 Enabling CO2 reduction
Driven through new business models, customer connectivity,
innovation and digitalisation

72
76
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12Royal Dutch Shell March 21, 2018
Safe + reliable
operations
Operational
excellence
Process safety/environment – Downstream
0
1
2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Personal safety – Downstream
# Tier 1 & 2 Process Safety Incidents TRCF/million working hours
Tier 1 Tier 2 TRCF trendlineTRCF/million working hours
50
75
100
2013 2017 2020E
75
150
225
2013 2017 2020E
Refining & Trading
Unit costs (Index 2013)
Refining - Asset utilisation
%Yield on costs (Index 2013)
Marketing
Asset utilisation - 4-year averageAsset utilisation
0
50
100
150
200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
10
20
0
5
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
13
Downstream
Financial
performance
 Strong cash
generation
 Competitive returns
Refining & Trading Marketing ChemicalsWorking capital movementCFFO excluding working capital Free cash flow (RHS)
Downstream Upstream Integrated Gas Corporate
DS as of % RDS (RHS)
Marketing Refining & Trading Chemicals ROACE (RHS)
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis,
excluding identified items
Cash flow
$ billion
Capital employed
$56 billion at end 2017
Earnings Earnings by sub-segment + ROACE
$ billion
$ billion
$ billion % %

0%
10%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
14
Company analysis of competitors cash flow from operations; Earnings on local GAAP basis adjusted for inventory valuation differences and excluding identified items. 2016 Capital Employed is
used as proxy for calculating 2017 ROACE. Oil products peer group excludes Total: no separate oil products disclosure. Source brand preference: Ipsos – Global Customer Tracker (covering
30+markets)
Oil Products – ROACE
%
Downstream – Cash flow from operations
$ billion
Chemicals – ROACE Global brand preference
%%
Shell Peer groupShell Peer group
Shell Peer group range
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Competitive
performance
World-class
investment
case
Shell Peer group
0%
10%
20%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2017
6
7
8
9
10
2011-2013 2014-2017 2020E
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
15
“Exposure
and resilience”
Resilient
today…and
tomorrow
0
1
2
3
Base growth New customers Resilient sectors New revenues
2017 2021 20252025
Capital employed
2025:
 Oil Products: +30-35%
 Chemicals: +>50%
Geographical exposure
Earnings per region
Chemicals – feedstock exposure
% of feedstock
Marketing – earnings growth to 2025 Refining & Trading – Breakeven margin
$ per barrel$ billion
Oil Gas
East
Europe & Africa
Americas
Global commercialRetail

Offering more
and cleaner
energy
solutions
Nature-based and
technology solutions
to offset CO2 emissions
New businesses
CCS, Emissions Trading,
District heating, Solar
Transport
Lighter vehicles,
Mobility efficiency
Construction
Insulation and
energy efficiency
Biofuels
Conventional and advanced
CNG/LNG
Light & Heavy Duty Vehicles
and Marine
Hydrogen
Network development
Electricity
Smart and fast charging
offer for EVs
Electronics
Digitalisaton
Energy & water
Fuel additives,
Low temperature detergents

Innovation
& Customer
Shell is developing
and adapting the
technology of the
future, building
on our customer
connectivity
Technology
 Chemicals technology R&D
 Improvement to refining
technologies
 New fuels and lubes
development
Digitising the core
 Data analytics
 Technology use in monitoring
and operation of plants,
terminals and vessels
New business models
 LubeChat
 Pilots: Fitcar, TapUp, AccuPort
 Connected customers
(e.g. Jaguar Land Rover,
Shell app)

Summary Key messages
 Significant and increasing cash and returns to support world-class investment case
 Increasing portfolio resilience, leveraging technology, digitalisation and
new business models
 Transformational and profitable growth
 Organic free cash flow per annum:
 by 2020: $6-7 billion
 by 2025: $9-12 billion
 Capital employed by 2025: Oil Products: + 30-35%; Chemicals: +>50%
 ROACE >15%
 Leading through the Energy Transition
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment
case
Strong
license
to operate

Marketing
István Kapitány
EVP Retail
Royal Dutch Shell

Shell has the
most profitable
Marketing
businesses in
the industry
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; Peer group: BP and Total, published annual reports, Shell analysis
2 - Geographic distribution of Marketing earnings in 2017. Retail includes Raizen Combustiveis
+$1.4 billion
2017 vs 2013
earnings growth
 Customers first
 Top line growth through differentiation
 Active portfolio management
 Simplification & Offshoring
0
2
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
26%ROACE
Earnings: Marketing
East
EU +
Africa
Retail
Global
commercial
Others
Americas
Earnings split (2017)
Balanced
portfolio2
$ billion
Peer groupShell
Chemicals
Refining &
Trading
Marketing
Downstream

Shell Reference industry IOCs
21
Shell retail is
the #1 mobility
retailer
1 – Source: Latest published company annual reports:
Sites (in thousands): BP: ~18; Total: ~16.5; Gap: ~1.6; Zara: ~2.2; Carrefour: ~12; Starbucks: ~27
Retail includes Raizen Combustiveis
# of sites worldwide of selected retailers1
Aslam Khoso – Global Service Champion Winner 2016
Customers per day
30M+
70+
Markets
44K+
Locations
Shell
Starbucks
Carrefour
ZARA
GAP
Total
BP

0
1
2
2013 2017
0
100
200
2013 2017 2020
22
Shell retail has
grown strongly
since 2013
1 - Source: Latest published company annual reports for Carrefour, Couche Tard, Sainsbury’s, Starbucks, Tesco and Walmart. Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; Retail
includes Raizen Combustiveis. CAGR: compound annual growth rate
+~$600 million
2017 vs 2013
earnings growth
Earnings: retail
 Differentiated Programmes
 Active Portfolio Management
100
154
Selected retailers1
Yield on cost Income per site
0
100
200
2013 2017
100
131
50% Convenience retail
V-Power™
Fleet solutions
Loyalty
Main-grade fuel
Gross margin contribution
Index (2013=100) Index (2013=100)
>7%
CAGR
ROACE
24%
$ billion

Shell retail
success is built
upon brand
and
differentiation
Brand value1
Preferred IOC across 62 countries2
5139
30
21
20
28
1 - Source: Brand Finance Global 500 (2018)
2 - Source: IPSOS, Global Customer Tracker – Shell analysis based on GCT, an independent survey conducted by Ipsos across 62 markets in 2017
Coca-Cola
Nike
Total
BP
Total
BP
Esso
Chevron
Mobil
$ billion

0%
10%
20%
2013 2015 2017 2020E
24
V-Power™ is the best selling premium fuel in the world
1 – Source: Shell estimate based on number of markets and sites selling Shell V-Power™ and extrapolated from public data where available 2 - Source – 16M+ transactions. Period: 21st Feb 2017 – 15 Feb 2018. Source: OPIS – Oil Price Information Service (2018)
3 - Source: Kantar Worldpanel Petrol Service report (2017) – based on 2K UK Motorists surveyed across a 12-month period
V-Power™ penetration: branded sales
%
Iconic partners
US ‘street price’ for premium fuels2
Shell Major Minor Regional Hypermarket
$ per gallon
Market share: premium fuels in the UK3
Esso
BP
Shell
Sainsburys
Tesco
Morrisons
Others

Shell is the
largest global
provider of
solutions for
business fleets
2 Million
Customers served every day
Fleet of trucks
$2+ billion road services turnover
Quality and low emission fuels
Management information, advanced
controls & security
Fleet of cars/vans
Digital offers & Mobility Services
CO2 offsetting & electric mobility
Growing through car-sharing, ride-sharing
and leasing
#1
Network
Shell cards are accepted
in >200,000 roadside
locations worldwide
>7 Million
Active Shell cards

Securing our position as the leading global mobility retailer
1
50%
Share of
margin from
non-fuels retail at
company sites
20%
Of our fuels
margin from low
emission energy
solutions at
company sites
2
>50%
Reduction in carbon
intensity of Shell
service stations at
company sites
3
Every customer
Treated like a
guest at Shell service
stations and in the
digital world
4
100%
Of Shell service
stations committed to
reduce waste & benefit
local communities
5
Our 5 Ambitions by 2025

Significantly
growing our
convenience
retail business
Shell convenience store - Singapore Broaden our range of coffee and food offers
Basket check out in 5 seconds (pilot with
IBM) – United Kingdom
Developing unmanned cashier with
Bingo Box Technology - China
2017 - 2020 2020 - 2025 2017 - 2025
>5,000
Growth in # of stores

500 ultra-fast charge posts with IONITY in next 2 years – Europe
28
Leading through
the energy
transition
with tangible
actions
Hydrogen network development – USA & Germany 20+ ‘recharge’ locations – UK & The Netherlands
Integrated charging solutions

Innovating with award winning digital solutions for our customers
1- Shell App: Gold Award for Best Mobile App experience in EMEA in Dec 2017 by Mobile Marketing Association; GLOMO Award Winner for Best use of mobile for Retail, Brands & Commerce in Feb 2017 by Mobile World Congress - GSMA. 2- Available
from UK 2015, Turkey 2016, DE & China 2017 and US 2018
Shell Motorist App active in
36 markets and voted the Best
Mobile App1
In-car payments with Jaguar Land
Rover and General Motors
Mobile payment in UK, Turkey,
Germany, China and US
available to customers2
Fuel delivery to your door in NL
with a ‘Tap’ on your phone

Earnings: retail
30
Outlook to
2025 aiming
for significant
growth in retail
+>$1.5 billion
2025 vs 2017
earnings growth
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
New revenues
Grow convenience retail
5,000 new stores
New offers
Resilient sectors
Grow fleet solutions
New customers
5,000 new sites: China, India,
Indonesia, Mexico and Russia
Grow Base
V-Power™
5,000 new sites
Customers
40M+ 90+
Markets
55K+
Locations
24% >20%ROACE >20%
$ billion
0
2
4
2013 2017 Growth levers 2020 Growth levers 2025

Marketing
Huibert Vigeveno
Royal Dutch Shell

1M+
32
Global
commercial:
the B2B arm of
Shell
1 – Source: Kline & Company (2017)
 Attractive industries
 Fully integrated
 Resilient
Lubricants - global lubricants market share1
0%
5%
10%
Supplier
Aviation - sales by region (in 2017)
Specialties - sales by region (in 2017)
B2B customers
150
Markets
#1
in Lubricants
%
TOTALExxon
Mobil
BP
East
Americas
Europe & Africa
East
Americas
Europe & Africa

Earnings per FTE
0
100
200
2013 2017 2020
0
1
2
2013 2017
33
Global
commercial
delivered
exceptional
returns
1 - Source: Latest published company annual reports - Akzo Nobel, Fuchs, Valeo, Valvoline & World Fuel Services. Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items. CAGR:
compound annual growth rate
+>$300 million
2017 vs 2013
earnings growth
Earnings: global commercial
> 6%
CAGR
ROACE
26%
$ billion
Selected retailers1
0
100
200
2013 2017
100
150
Index (2013=100) Index (2013=100)
100
212
Yield on cost1
 Premium & organic growth
 Supply chain footprint

Shell lubricants
success is built
on technology,
brand and
people
1 in 9 engine or
equipment, world-
wide, is protected
by Shell lubricants
Volume share2 – comparison with BP and Total
Consumer
Shell Peer Group
Commercial
IndustrialResilient
Sectors
Brand share of preference1 - markets worldwide*
20%
16% 14%
Passenger Car Motor Oils
36%
21%
10%
Heavy Duty Engine Oils
1 – Source: Kantar Millward Brown (H1 ’17) – PCMO (22K respondents), HDEO (9K respondents) *- PCMO: USA, China, India, Russia, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Canada, Thailand, Egypt
and Malaysia; HDEO: USA, China, India, Russia, Brazil, Thailand, Egypt, Pakistan, Vietnam, Argentina and Colombia. 2 – Source: Kline & Company (2017)
Exxon
Mobil
BP
Exxon
Mobil
BP

Shell lubricants
is the IOC
market leader
in China
1 – Source: Millward Brown (2017 Q3) Motorist Loyalty Tracker 中国市场品牌调研- 6288 respondents annually in 33 cities in China
2 – Source: Kline & Company (2017)
Shell market share2
in China in 2016:
8,5%
PCMO market: brand preference in China1
North
West
East
South
TsingYi
Zhapu
Tianjin
NGG
Zhuhai
Supply chain footprint in China
Lube Oil Plant
Grease Plant
Distributor Center
GTL Terminal
Flavex Process
Oil Terminal
Operation Unit CN, HK
5
1
5
1
1
 Exceptional local team
 Digital leadership
 Retail integration
0
20
40
0 20 40 60 80Preference Awareness
TOTAL
SINOPEC
CASTROL
MOBIL

Our unique
global customers
footprint can
grow further
1 – Source: Kline & Company – Passenger Car Motor Oils with a viscosity of 0W and 5W, Compound Annual Growth Rate (2013-2017)
7 out of 10 largest car
manufacturers choose
Shell lubricants Lubricants & grease blending plants
Base oil manufacturing plants
R&D Centre
Customer operations
Passenger Car Motor Oil1
Premium volume development
Market Shell
0
5
10
%
DEEP TECHNICAL
EXPERTS,

Strengthening
our position as
a world class
B2B business
1 – Source: Oxford Economics (2018); 2 Source: Shell analysis based on aggressive EV scenario; 3 – Source: Shell analysis; 4 – Source: Shell analysis – Ship capacity - Dead weight tonnage
LubeChat
2017 2025
+27%
Ship capacity4
+36%
Aircrafts3
+25%
ICE Vehicles2
+24%
Industrial
Production1
Fitcar
Skypad
AccuPort

0
1
2
3
2013 2017 Growth levers 2020 Growth levers 2025
38
Outlook to
2020 is very
strong with
exceptional
returns
+>$1 billion
2025 vs 2017
earnings growth
ROACE 26% >25% >25%
B2B customers
1M+ 150
Markets
#1
In lubricants
Grow Base
2x market growth in premium
Expand airport presence
New customers
Grow market share in China,
India, Indonesia, Mexico and
Russia
Resilient sectors
$1 billion investment in
technology
New revenues
Accelerate digital and services
growth
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Earnings: global commercial
$ billion

Retail and
global
commercial are
exceptional
performers
+>$2.5 billion
2025 vs 2017
earnings growth
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; CAGR: compound annual growth rate
Customers/day
40M+ 150+
Markets
#1
In the industry
 Strongest business
performance in peer
group
 Attractive industries,
superior returns
 Resilient in the 2020s
0
2
4
6
2013 2017 Growth 2020 Growth 2025
>7%
CAGR
Earnings: retail + global commercial
$ billion
Global Commercial Retail
ROACE 25% >20% >20%

Refining & Trading
Lori Ryerkerk & Andrew Smith
EVP Manufacturing & EVP Trading & Supply
Royal Dutch Shell

Refining & Trading:
Fully integrated and highly dynamic global system

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
42
Chemicals,
Refining & Trading
Portfolio
1 - Company analysis of external data.
Retaining competitive,
integrated and more
complex sites in
trading hubs and
advantaged markets
Legend
Refinery
Chemical plant
Chemicals & integrated refining site
Crude & product trading hub
Trading officesXYZ
Exits 2005–17Retained site 2017
Consolidated footprint
Refinery capacity in thousand barrels per day (100%)
2.9 million barrels per day
average refinery capacity (thousand barrels per day)
averagerefiningcomplexity
Shell refining portfolio
Competitor refining portfolio
Bubble size represents total
equity capacity.
Increased refining complexity1
2017
2001
100 200 300 400
Mobile
Geismar
Jurong Island
Moerdijk
HOUSTON
LONDON ROTTERDAM
SINGAPORE
Puget Sound
Martinez
Schwedt (JV)
Convent
Tabangao (JV)
Fredericia
Pernis
Scotford
Sarnia
Deer Park (JV)
Norco
Rheinland
Pulau Bukom
Durban
Buenos Aires
Nanhai (JV)
FEP/Stanlow (JV)
Miro (JV)
Al Jubail (JV)
Karachi
Pennsylvania
MOSCOW
DUBAI
SHELL
WEST
BEIJING
CALGARY
Chemical Site under construction

Chemicals,
Refining & Trading
Integration
Integration and
flexibility release
the value of supply
chain optionality
Crude &
feedstock
optimisation
Oil Products
“Make-Buy-Blend”
Oil-chemicals
Integration
Highest value
Crude and
feedstock, equity
and non-equity
Highest-margin feedstocks from
refinery or market
Best selection of
purchased and
produced components
Refining Trading
& supply
Product blending
& supply
Marketing
Chemicals
manufacturing

Chemicals,
Refining & Trading
US Gulf Coast
& Northeast
Significant and
sustainable value
uplift created
by integrated
re-optimisation
of the eastern
US value chain
Northeast
volume growth
+30 thousand
barrels per day
“Make-Buy-Blend”
optimisation and
exports
Operating Convent
FCCU for another
turnaround cycle
+$150-200 million
per annum margin
Hurricane Harvey
response business
continuity for
customers
Shell terminals
Shell refineries
No rco
Co nvent

Norco manufacturing
complex
Refining &
Chemicals
integration
Optimizing Refining
and Chemicals as an
integrated value chain
expected to unlock
>$70 million per
annum additional
margin
Past Present Future
 Motiva streams managed
at arm’s length
 Under-optimised assets
 Integration in Shell’s portfolio
 Integrated economics drive real
time optimisation of streams
Short term
 Catalyst reformulation to
maximise utilization of integrated
value chain
Long term
 Capital projects to increase
integrated profitability
Norco integrated Refining & Chemicals value – gross margin
$ million per annum
0
20
40
60
80
100
Short Term Long TermPast Present

74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
46
Delivering
operational
excellence
Improving safety,
reliability and cost
efficiency in our
operations
% utilisation
Asset utilisation – Refining Unit cost – Refining & Trading
Index (2013 =100)
Process safety & environment – Downstream
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
# Tier 1 & 2 process safety incidents TRCF/million working hours
Personal safety – Downstream
0
1
2
50
75
100
2013 2017 2020E
Tier 1 Tier 2 TRCF trendlineTRCF/million working hours
Asset utilisation - 4-year averageAsset utlisation

Margin
resilience and
stability
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
6
7
8
9
10
2011-2013 2014-2017 2020E
 Forward view based on
average of the last ten years,
covers most of typical
volatility: $10.40 per barrel
 Rule-of-thumb: $ per barrel
margin = +/- ~$600 million
earnings
 Delivering more resilient and
less volatile margin from a
high graded and integrated
portfolio
2008-2017 Average marginActual margin Indicative margin
Refining & Trading – Breakeven margin
Integrated indicative margin

Building
resilience for
the future
Investing in refinery resilience Strengthening the core
New solutions Low carbon solutions
Strengthening the core
assets while building
capability through
technology advances
to adapt to a changing
energy world
Growth
Non- and little
discretionary
spend
Capital investment:
$ 2-3 billion per year
(2018-2020 average)
 Bottom of barrel upgrading
 Crude flexibility
 Logistics and integration
 Low sulphur fuel oil (IMO) preparedness
Biofuels
Blending
Renewable
Power
Offerings
Asset
Carbon
Offsets
Low
Carbon
Solutions
Nature
Based
Solutions
Shell refineries
and businesses
3rd Party offerings,
new value chains
 Energy efficiency initiatives
 Green energy
 Cogeneration

Chemicals
Graham van’t Hoff
EVP Chemicals
Royal Dutch Shell

Growth priority
Chemicals
 Top 10 producer
of Ethylene
 Top 5 producer
of Propylene
 Top 5 producer
of Benzene
Positioning in the competitive landscape
Base Chemicals/
Intermediates
Performance Solutions
 Access to advantaged feedstock
 Process technologies
 Big integrated projects
 Large scale
 Customised solutions
 Product-materials innovation
 Production close to markets
 Medium scale projects
Pure Chemical
Companies
Add Differentiation
FEEDSTOCKS
CONSUMERS

Chemicals
Strategy
 A highly profitable
hydrocarbon
upgrader
Advantaged
feedstock
First class footprint
Strong product &
customer portfolio
Excellence every day
& HSSE
Access advantaged feedstock Monetize with competitive advantage
Technology

Chemicals
Technology
leader
Technology focus
and operating
expertise create
winning position
Shell Chemicals proprietary technologies leverage key skills and experience to create
market leading positions
 OMEGA (MEG - Polyesters)
 SMPO (Styrene Monomer – Insulation / Polyols - Foams)
 SHOP (Detergents)
 DPC/PC (Diphenyl carbonate – Phone casings)
 Technology licensing and catalyst sales combine to create strong long-term value

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Q4
2017
53
Chemicals
Financial and
competitive
performance
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; Shell ROACE calculations for 2012 has been restated for the impact of IAS 19; source: company reports, Shell analysis
$ billion
Earnings – Chemicals
%
Competitive performance – ROACE 4Q rolling
Ensure robust
performance under
different market
conditions and grow
base business
0
40
80
120
0
1
2
3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/barrel
Average: $107
Average: $50
Average Brent oil price (RHS)Earnings
Average earnings 2010 - 2016
ExxonMobil
Shell DOW/UCC
LBI

Chemicals
Competitiveness
Organisational,
operational and
cultural
improvements
deliver sustainable
annual earnings
increases Operational excellence
Costs
Volume growth
Unit margin
$500 million per annum

Chemicals
Growth
projects
2006
Nanhai
2010
USGC
go-light
strategy
2010
Singapore
2016+
China
+ USA
Feedstock mix
2025
Gas
Liquid
 425,000 metric tonnes
additional Alpha Olefins
capacity
 New liquids cracker and
derivatives units
 Capacity: ~1.2 million metric
tonnes ethylene per annum
 50/50 JV CNOOC
 Greenfield FID 2016
 Capacity: ~1.5 million metric
tonnes ethylene per annum and
polyethylene derivatives
 Remains on track to begin
commercial production in 2H
2018
 Geismar site will become
largest AO facility in the world
 Start-up of cracker and new
downstream units in 1H 2018
 SMPO/POD on-track for
2019/2020 start-up
 Main construction phase started
in late 2017
Under construction
Pennsylvania, USA
Geismar, USA
Nanhai, China

Chemicals
Organic growth
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; Shell ROACE calculations for 2012 has been restated for the impact of IAS 19
Targets aspiration
per year mid-’20s:
 Earnings:
~$3.5 – 4 billion
 Cash flow:
~$5 – 6 billion
 Base capex:
~$1 – $1.5 billion
0
5
10
15
20
0
2
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ~2025
Earnings + ROACE
$ billion
Earnings ROACE (RHS)
 Improve base business
 Expand current base portfolio
 Adding to portfolio – growth
%

Downstream
Delivering a
world-class
investment
case
Downstream:
 Customer-centric
 Uniquely integrated
 Competitive
 Resilient
 Leading through the energy transition
 Delivering profitable growth
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment case
Strong
license
to operate

Questions &
Answers
John Abbott
Downstream Director
Lori Ryerkerk
EVP Manufacturing
Huibert Vigeveno
Istvan Kapitany
EVP Retail
Graham van’t Hoff
EVP Chemicals
Andrew Smith
EVP Trading & Supply
Bjorn Fermin
EVP Downstream
Finance
Gerard Penning
EVP Downstream
Human Resources

Royal Dutch Shell Downstream Open House

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Royal Dutch Shell Downstream Open House

Similar to Royal Dutch Shell Downstream Open House (20)

More from Shell plc

More from Shell plc (11)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Royal Dutch Shell Downstream Open House