On Thursday January 30, 2020 at 07.00 GMT (08.00 CET and 02.00 EST) Royal Dutch Shell plc released its fourth quarter, full year results and fourth quarter interim dividend announcement for 2019.
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc and Jessica Uhl, Chief Financial Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc host audio webcasts of the fourth quarter 2019 results on Thursday January 30, 2020.
See https://www.shell.com/results for more information.
9654467111 Call Girls In Katwaria Sarai Short 1500 Night 6000
Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2019 results
1. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Royal Dutch Shell plc
#MakeTheFuture
FOURTH QUARTER
2019 RESULTS
Delivering a world-class investment case
January 30, 2020
2. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer
3. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Gearing is defined as net debt (current and non-current debt less cash and cash equivalents, adjusted for the fair value of derivative financial instruments used to hedge foreign exchange and interest rate risks relating to debt, and associated collateral balances) as a percentage of total capital (net debt plus total
equity). Free Cash Flow is defined as the sum of “Cash flow from operating activities” and “Cash flow from investing activities”. Organic free cash flow is defined as free cash flow excluding inorganic capital investment and divestment proceeds. Cash flow from operating activities excluding working capital movements
is defined as “Cash flow from operating activities” less the sum of the following items in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: (i) (increase)/decrease in inventories, (ii) (increase)/decrease in current receivables, and (iii) increase/(decrease) in current payables. ROACE on a CCS basis excluding identified items is
defined as the sum of CCS earnings excluding identified items for the current and previous three quarters, adjusted for after-tax interest expense, expressed as a percentage of the average capital employed for the same period. The after-tax interest expense is calculated using the effective tax rate for the same period.
Capital employed consists of total equity, current debt and non-current debt. Presented ROACE (return on average capital employed) is ROACE on a CCS basis excluding identified items unless stated otherwise. Historical ROACE for individual segments presented as reported (not restated for Q1 2019 definition
change). Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis (CCS earnings) is the income for the period, adjusted for the after-tax effect of oil-price changes on inventory. Presented earnings is CCS earnings attributable to shareholders excluding identified items unless stated otherwise. Basic CCS earnings per share is
calculated by dividing CCS earnings attributable to shareholders by the average number of shares outstanding over the year. Presented earnings per share is basic CCS earnings per share excluding identified items unless stated otherwise. Cash capital expenditure was introduced with effect from January 1, 2019,
comprising the following lines from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: Capital expenditure, Investments in joint ventures and associates and Investments in equity securities. Reconciliations of the above non-GAAP measures are included in the Royal Dutch Shell plc Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Report
for the full year ended December 31, 2019. Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions. The forward-looking break-even price (BEP) presented is calculated based on all forward-looking costs associated from Final Investment Decision (FID). Accordingly, this typically excludes exploration and appraisal costs, lease bonuses,
exploration seismic and exploration team overhead costs. The forward-looking BEP is calculated based on our estimate of resources volumes that are currently classified as 2p and 2c under the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Resource Classification System. The financial measures provided by strategic themes
represent a notional allocation of ROACE, capital employed, capital investment, free cash flow, organic free cash flow and underlying operating expenses of Shell’s strategic themes. Shell’s segment reporting under IFRS 8 remains Integrated Gas, Upstream, Downstream and Corporate. Also, in this presentation we
may refer to “Shell’s net carbon footprint”, which includes Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own
emissions but, to support society in achieving the Paris Agreement goals, we aim to help and influence such suppliers and consumers to likewise lower their emissions. The use of the terminology “Shell’s net carbon footprint” is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell or its
subsidiaries.
This presentation contains the following forward-looking non-GAAP measures: Organic Free Cash Flow, Cash Capital Expenditure, Gearing, ROACE, Capital Employed and Divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of the above forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP
financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the above non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating
such GAAP measures consistent with the company accounting policies and the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most
comparable GAAP financial measures are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Royal Dutch Shell plc’s financial statements. The presented 2020 outlook is an average for 2019-2021. All forward-looking numbers are on an IFRS 16 basis unless stated otherwise. 2020
presented organic free cash flow range of $28-33 billion is equivalent to $25-30 billion on an IAS 17 basis. 2020 presented cash capex range of $24-29 billion is equivalent to the previous outlook of $25-30 billion capital investment on an IAS 17 basis.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the
words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this
presentation refer to entities over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither
control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,
forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed
or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements
are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a
number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for
Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and
completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and
regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend
payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk
factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2018 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the
reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, January 30, 2020. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In
light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from
including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
3
Definitions & cautionary note
4. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment case
Strong
licence
to operate
Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
◼ World-class investment case
Competitive cash flow generation led by market-facing businesses
Over $25 billion distributed through dividends and share buybacks in 2019
Disciplined execution of capital programme
◼ Thrive in the energy transition
Sustainable, low carbon solutions in all businesses
Building an integrated power business
◼ Strong licence to operate
Increasing transparency
Collaborative sector-by-sector approach
4
2019
Key messages
5. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Injuries (TRCF) per million working hours Thousand tonnes
Million tonnes CO2e # of incidents
Million working hours #
Flaring intensity (%)
5
Goal Zero on safety Operational spills
Upstream flaring Process safety
2019
HSSE
performance
TRCF Working hours (RHS) Volume of spills Number of spills (RHS)
Tier 1 Tier 2GHG from flaring Flaring intensity (RHS)
6. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020 6
Strategic themes
Competitively positioned for the future of energy
01
Core Upstream themes
◼ Strong cash generation
◼ Fully sustain through the coming decades
02
Leading Transition themes
◼ Extend leadership
◼ Capitalise on Energy Transition
03
Emerging Power theme
◼ Capture value from evolving
consumption patterns
◼ Prove investment case and then scale up
Capital allocation
◼ Value and returns driven
◼ Diversify risk and opportunity
Portfolio resilience
◼ Balanced cash generation
◼ Enables low-carbon future
Integration
◼ Optimise value chains
◼ Unlock superior value
Customer orientation
◼ Create, meet new demand
◼ Key differentiator
Clear portfolio strategy Industry-leading returns per strategic themeCore strengths
7. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
◼ High graded portfolio with competitive
delivery
◼ Leading portfolio in Deep Water with
strong development funnel
◼ Continued growth in leading Marketing
businesses
◼ Integrated LNG business and trading and
optimisation organisation
◼ Building a competitive and integrated
Power business
◼ Customer-focused business model offering
customer solutions
7
Core Upstream themes Leading Transition themes Emerging Power theme
◼ >70% of 2018-19 FIDs are Best-in-class or
Top Quartile for Unit Development Cost
◼ Resilient growth: Deep Water organic free
cash flow to $5.9 billion in 2019
◼ More competitive: forward looking break-
even price at FID <$30 per barrel in 2019
Strategic themes
Progress in 2019
Organic free cash flow on IAS 17 basis.
◼ New customers: growth with 200th retail
site opened in Mexico
◼ New customer offers: new fuels growth,
50th Shell Recharge site opened in the UK
◼ Brand recognition: recognised as global
market leader for 13 consecutive years
◼ Brand recognition: First Utility rebranded to
Shell Energy to capitalise on our brand
◼ New customer offers: 100% renewable
electricity supplied to UK customers
◼ Business growth: expanding market share in
the UK, US and Australia
8. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
UDC reductionWorld-class capital efficiency factory
◼ Systematic and rigorous scope challenge
◼ Efficient execution focus
◼ Supply chain transformation
◼ Technology reduces scope or aids execution
UDC benchmark
$ per boe
2018/2019 Project FIDs
Capital efficiency and project delivery
World-class capital efficiency driving lower capital spend
UDC benchmark source: IPA 2019.
Conventional Oil and Gas Deep Water Integrated Gas
Industry average
Best-in-
Class
2nd
quartile
3rd
quartile
4th
quartile
Top
quartile
30%
reduction in
average break-
even price at FID
to <$30 per
boe in 2019
>70%
of 2018/2019
FIDs Best-in-Class/
Top Quartile for
UDC
>50%
UDC reduction
since 2014;
capital efficiency
doubled since
2014
70%
of all operated
wells Best-in-Class
in 2018
8
9. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Overview shows selected key projects only. Additional cash flow from operations from new projects in 2020 compares with 2018 with pricing assumption of $60 per barrel real
terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream. 9
Project delivery
Portfolio high-grading
Capital efficiency and project delivery
2019 Upstream and Integrated Gas projects
P67 – Lula North
P68 – Berbigao & Sururu
Mero 2
Started-up
✓
Forcados Yokri
Southern Swamp AG
E6 development
Gumusut Kakap ph2
Malikai
Rabab Harweel
Integrated Project
Permian & Fox Creek
Appomattox
PowerNap
Prelude
Pierce
WDDM 9B
✓ ✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
Salym Southern Hub
✓
FID taken
◼ 8 major project FIDs and 12 major project
start-ups in 2019
◼ Started drilling first exploration well in Mexico
in January 2020
◼ On track to deliver $5 billion CFFO from new
projects
◼ Continued focus on high-grading our portfolio
with high-margin barrels
◼ Divesting for value and non-core positions,
e.g. Caesar Tonga in US Gulf of Mexico,
Denmark Upstream business
◼ Exploration strategy focused on heartland
additions
Basrah Future
growth projects
Barracuda
Tempa Rossa✓
10. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020 New convenience stores and new sites represent gross numbers which do not include closed stores and sites throughout the period. 10
Retail
Delivering
on growth
strategy in
2019 vs. 2017
Extending our lead as
the world’s largest
mobility retailer
Grow base
> 1,500 new sites in base markets
19% V-PowerTM penetration
Resilient sectors
> 8 million
active cards in the past 12 months
New customers
~1,000
new sites in China, India, Indonesia,
Mexico and Russia
New revenues
> 1,500 new convenience stores
10% higher global non-fuels margin
◼ Successful convenience retail offers rolled out
across global network
◼ Strong progress in e-charging: >300 EV fast-
charging points at Shell retail sites, and Didi car-
hailing partnership progressing in China
◼ Shell Fleet Solutions China: 35% volume growth
in 2019
◼ Toll4Europe partnership live across Europe
◼ Strongest and preferred IOC brand in China
with >1,500 sites
◼ Progress in growth markets: 200th site opened in
Mexico
◼ Material expansion of loyalty programmes
worldwide: >15 million users in China alone
◼ Carbon neutral driving offer in the Netherlands
and the UK – represents 1 in 5 litres of fuel sold
11. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Supplying homes and businesses
◼ Serving > 900k households in UK
with 100% renewable electricity
◼ Completed acquisition of ERM Power in Australia
◼ Over 40,000 customers benefiting from energy
storage solutions via sonnen and Limejump
Powering mobility
◼ Expanding EV charging options through private
charge points and a public charging network
◼ ~50,000 private charge points in 35
European countries through NewMotion
◼ Expanding US presence through
acquisition of Greenlots
◼ Growing number of charge points at Shell
retail sites through IONITY and Shell Recharge
Generating clean electricity
◼ Acquired EOLFI, a floating wind developer
◼ Acquired 49% interest in ESCO Pacific, one of
the most successful solar developers in Australia
◼ Growing our clean generation
capacity from wind and solar:
◼ Installed capacity: 700 MW (Shell share)
◼ In development capacity: 2.6 GW (Shell share)
Power
Advancing a lower-carbon business
In development capacity for solar includes signed capacity and for wind it includes potential capacity estimated based on the size of the lease area. 11
12. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
◼ Refreshed strategic themes – strong
customer focus through Leading Transition
themes and Emerging Power theme.
◼ Net Carbon Footprint – 2016 baseline
data and 2017-18 progress published
◼ Nature-based solutions – plans to
invest $300 million in natural ecosystems
from 2019 to 2021
◼ Expanding customer offers – growing
our customer Power business (UK, Australia, US)
◼ Innovation – innovative $10 billion revolving credit
facility with fees and interest linked to progress
towards short-term NCF intensity target
◼ Transparency – published the Industry
Associations Climate Review and our first
Tax Contribution Report
2019 highlights
Industry Associations
Climate Review
transparency on memberships
of industry associations
Strongly
positioned
for the future
of energy
Tax Contribution Report
published for the first time
Shell Energy
supplying 100% renewable
energy to UK households
Carbon emissions offset
offers to our retail customers in
the UK and the Netherlands
Proof points
12
13. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
2019
Financial
summary
13
Management Day 2019 outlook at $60 per barrel real terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream. Our current oil price premise for 2020 is below $60 per barrel real terms 2016, which
adversely impacts the Management Day 2019 outlook. Share buybacks: repurchases completed since inception in Q2 2018, announced tranches do not align with quarters. 2019
OFCF includes negative working capital movement of around $5 billion.
CASH CAPEX
ORGANIC FREE
CASH FLOW
SHARE BUYBACKS
ROACE
GEARING
2019
ACTUALS
$23.9 billion
$14.8 billion
6.9%
$20.1 billion
Inception to date
29.3%
2020
MD19 OUTLOOK
$24 - 29 billion
$28 - 33 billion
~10%
$25 billion
~25%
lower end of the range
total programme (2018+)
14. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
~$54/bbl ~$71/bbl ~$64/bbl ~$65/bbl
$ billion per annum
2017
Organic FCF
(IAS 17)
2018
Organic FCF
(IAS 17)
2019
Organic FCF
(IAS 17)
2020
MD19 Organic FCF
(IAS 17)
Conventional Oil and Gas 6.1 6.5 3.1 5 – 6
Deep Water 0.8 5.0 5.9 6 – 7
Shales (1.1) (0.6) (0.4) 1 – 2
Core Upstream themes 5.8 10.9 8.6 12 – 15
Integrated Gas 2.8 10.8 11.4 8 – 10
Chemicals 1.1 0.4 (2.8) 0
Oil Products 5.3 6.3 (0.7) 6 – 7
Leading Transition themes 9.2 17.5 7.9 14 – 17
Power (0.2) (0.5) (1.3) (2) – (1)
Emerging Power theme (0.2) (0.5) (1.3) (2) – (1)
Total incl. Corporate & Other 15.1 30.8 15.5 25 – 30
Total (IFRS 16) incl. Corporate & Other 20.1 28 – 33
14
World-class investment case
Strategic themes delivery
Management Day 2019 outlook at $60 per barrel real terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream. Our current oil price premises for 2020 is below $60 per barrel real terms 2016,
which adversely impacts the Management Day 2019 outlook. 2019 OFCF includes negative working capital movement of around $5 billion. 2019 actuals for Power represent
New Energies and Power trading. 2017 and 2018 actuals represent New Energies only.
15. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
2020 cash capex
expected to be
at the lower end
of the $24-29
billion range
Sustaining cash
capex spend of
$20 billion per
annum to preserve
current cash flow
levels
Deliver more
than $10 billion
of divestments in
2019-2020
Growth pivots more
towards customer-
facing businesses
~50% of cash
capex to be
invested in Leading
Transition themes
Reshaping
Shell to deliver
a world-class
investment
case
15
People strategyCompetitive
portfolio
Cost management
16. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Jessica Uhl
Chief Financial Officer
17. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Cash
generation
Returns
Disciplined
cash allocation
Cash flow from operations
excluding working capital
Free cash flow
Earnings
ROACE
Gearing
Cash capital expenditure
Share buybacks
Q4 2019 average Brent price: $63/bbl
Downstream margins lower than historical average
17
$5.4 billion
◼ Negative working capital movements of $2.0 billion
◼ Of which $3.9 billion organic free cash flow
◼ Earnings impacted by lower price and margin environment
◼ Impacted by lower earnings
◼ Calculation now includes the full impact of IFRS16 on average capital employed
◼ Net debt of $79.1 billion
◼ 2019 cash capital expenditure $23.9 billion
◼ 2020 cash capital expenditure expected to be at the lower end of the $24-29
billion range
◼ Next tranche of up to $1.0 billion announced
◼ Intention to complete the $25 billion share buyback programme
Q4 2019
Financial highlights: summary
Share buybacks: repurchases completed in Q4 2019, announced tranches do not align with quarters. Share buybacks subject to further progress with debt reduction and macro
conditions.
6.9%
$12.3 billion
$2.9 billion
$6.9 billion
$2.8 billion
29.3%
18. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020 18
Project delivery Portfolio delivery
Q4 2019
Progressing
delivery for
2019-20
Additional cash flow from operations from new projects in 2020 compares with 2018 with pricing assumption of $60 per barrel real terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream.
FIDs Start-ups
2 2
◼ Final investment decisions taken:
◼ Malikai phase 2 of the deep-water
development in Malaysia
◼ Barracuda tieback as backfill project
for Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago
Growth
opportunities
Divestments
4 3
◼ Growth:
◼ Bratwurst, a significant gas and condensate
discovery in the Browse Basin, Australia
◼ Hudson Energy Supply UK acquired by Shell Energy
◼ Completion of ERM Power acquisition in Australia
◼ Mayflower JV selected to supply 804 MW
of offshore wind energy in the US
◼ Start-ups:
◼ Berbigão, Sururu, and West Atapu (P-68)
FPSO in Brazil
◼ Tempa Rossa in Italy
2019 full year
◼ 8 major project FIDs
◼ 12 major project
start-ups
◼ >10 divestments
completed and/or
announced
◼ Divestments:
◼ Completion of sale of non-operated
assets in Haynesville, US
◼ Completion of sale of Foothills asset, Canada
◼ Dilution of interest in Nyhamna, Norway
20. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
$ billion
20
CFFO ex. working capital Q4 2018 to Q4 2019
Q4 2019
Financial
highlights:
cash flow
Dividend distributed to RDS shareholders.
$ billion Q4 2018 Q4 2019
of which
IFRS 16
impact
Integrated Gas 5.8 3.5 +0.39
Upstream 6.9 4.2 +0.22
Downstream 8.8 2.3 +0.93
Corporate 0.6 0.3 -
Cash flow from
operations 22.0 10.3 +1.55
Cash flow from
operations
excl. working capital
12.9 12.3 +1.55
Cash flow from
investing activities (5.3) (4.9) +0.14
Free cash flow 16.7 5.4 +1.40
Dividend (3.9) (3.7) -
Interest paid (0.9) (1.2) -0.29
Share buybacks (2.5) (2.8) -
21. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Q4 2019 (4Q rolling)
average Brent price: $64/bbl
FCF
21
$ billion %
Earnings & ROACE
$ billion
Cash flow
$ billion %
Gearing
◼ 2019 earnings of $16.5 billion
◼ Negligible impact of IFRS 16
◼ ROACE of 6.9%
◼ 2019 free cash flow of $26.4 billion
◼ $20.1 billion organic free cash flow in 2019
◼ $4.7 billion free cash flow help from IFRS 16
◼ Net debt of $79.1 billion
◼ Gearing likely to remain >25% during 2020 due
to macro, equity movements and lease accounting
◼ Committed to maintaining AA equivalent
credit metrics
Q4 2019
Financial highlights: trend
Upstream Downstream
CFFICorporate + NCI
ROACE (RHS) ROACE pre-IFRS 16 (RHS)
CFFO
FCF pre-IFRS 16
Net debt (at period-end)
Gearing (RHS) Gearing pre-IFRS 16 (RHS)
IFRS 16 impact
Integrated Gas
IFRS 16 impactIFRS 16 impact
22. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
World-class
investment case
Competitive
and resilient
delivery
22
Sustain and
grow value
Financial resilience
through the cycle
Increase shareholder
distributions
$
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment
case
Strong
licence to
operate
23. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Thrive in
the energy
transition
World-class
investment case
Strong
licence
to operate
Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020 23
Summary
◼ World-class investment case
Competitive cash flow generation led by market-facing businesses
Over $25 billion distributed through dividends and share buybacks in 2019
Disciplined execution of capital programme
◼ Thrive in the energy transition
Sustainable, low carbon solutions in all businesses
Building an integrated power business
◼ Strong licence to operate
Increasing transparency
Collaborative sector-by-sector approach
24. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Q&A
Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer
Jessica Uhl
Chief Financial Officer
25.
26. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
◼ 2019 RRR 65%
◼ 2019 RRR (excl. A&D) 76%
◼ 3-year average RRR 48%
◼ 3-year average RRR (excl. A&D) 90%
◼ Reserves/Production at end 2019 ~8.0 years
billion boe 2017 2018 2019
Production 1.4 1.4 1.4
SEC proved reserves 12.2 11.6 11.1
Reserves/
Production (years)
~8.8 ~8.3 ~8.0
RRR 27% 53% 65%
billion boe
Reserves performance Proved reserves 2019 vs. 2018
Preliminary results
SEC proved
reserves
position
26
27. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
$/bbl $/MMBtu
$/tonne $/bbl
27
Brent Henry Hub
Chemicals cracker industry margins Refining marker industry gross margins
Commodity
prices and
margins
Source: Forward curves from Bloomberg (23 January 2020).
Brent historical data
Brent forward curve
MD19 assumption Henry Hub historical data
Henry Hub forward curve
US Ethane
Western Europe Naptha
North East/South East Asia Naphtha
Historical averages (2014-2019)
Rotterdam Complex
US Gulf Coast coking
US West Coast
Historical averages (2014-2019)
Singapore
28. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Integrated Gas
◼ Production is expected to be 950–980 thousand boe/d
◼ LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to be 9.0–9.5 million tonnes
Upstream
◼ Production is expected to be 2,625–2,775 thousand boe/d
Downstream
◼ Refinery availability is expected to be 90%–94%
◼ Oil Products sales volumes are expected to be 6,400–7,000 thousand boe/d
◼ Chemicals manufacturing plant availability is expected to be in the range 91%–95%
Corporate
◼ Corporate earnings excluding identified items are expected to be a net charge of $800 – 875 million. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate effects.
2020 Full year outlook:
◼ Corporate earnings excluding identified items are expected to be a net charge of $3,200 – 3,500 million for the full year 2020. This excludes the impact of currency
exchange rate effects.
◼ Full year 2020 cash capital expenditure is expected to be around the lower end of the $24–29 billion range
◼ Divestments are expected to amount to more than $10 billion over the 2019 – 2020 period.
28
Outlook
Q1 2020 outlook
As of 2020, the Egypt offshore assets are transferred from the Upstream Segment to the Integrated Gas segment. 2019 production: 19 kboe/d Shell share (100% gas), 2019 net
income: $0.1 billion. As of 2020, the Oil Sands are transferred from the Upstream segment to the Refining and Trading sub-segment. 2019 production: 52 kboe/d Shell share;
2019 net income: $0.3 billion. The outlook numbers incorporate these changes.
29. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020 29
$ per barrel $ per mscf
Shell oil & gas realisations
$ per barrel
Industry refining margins
$ per tonne
Industry chemicals margins
Q4 2019
Prices and margins
Oil
Gas (RHS)
US West Coast
Rotterdam complex
US Gulf Coast coking
Singapore
US ethane
Western Europe naphtha
NE/SE Asia naphtha
30. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Earnings Q4 2018 to Q4 2019
30
Q4 2019
Integrated
Gas results
Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Prices & margins +$0.16bln, Cost +$0.06bln, DD&A -$0.17bln.
Environment Choice
$ billion
31. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Earnings Q4 2018 to Q4 2019
31
Q4 2019
Upstream
results
Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Cost +$0.07bln, DD&A -$0.13bln, Other +$0.08bln.
Environment Choice
$ billion
33. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Cash
generation
Returns
Disciplined
cash allocation
Cash flow from operations
excluding working capital
Free cash flow
Earnings
ROACE
Gearing
Cash capital expenditure
Share buybacks
Post-IFRS 16 Pre-IFRS 16
33
$5.4 billion
◼ $1.5 billion, as lease payments now reported in CFFF
◼ $1.4 billion, due to higher CFFO
◼ Operating lease costs reported as depreciation and interest;
non-material net negative impact of $60 million
◼ 0.2% due to higher after tax interest rate
◼ 4.3% as $15.7 billion additional lease liabilities recorded on balance sheet
◼ New performance measure; adds capital spend transparency
and allows visibility for underlying capital costs excluding leases
Q4 2019
Financial highlights: IFRS 16 impact
6.9%
$12.3 billion
$2.9 billion
$6.9 billion
$2.8 billion
29.3%
$4.0 billion
7.1%
$10.8 billion
$3.0 billion
$2.8 billion
25.0%
34. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Start-up Project Country
Shell share [A]
%
Peak production
100% kboe/d
LNG capacity
100% mtpa
Products
100% capacity
Power output
100% MW
Theme
Shell
operated
2020-2021 Arran United Kingdom 45 30 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Bakong / Gorek / Larak (SK408) Malaysia 30 75 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Barracuda backfill Trinidad and Tobago 100 25 Integrated Gas P
Borssele 3 & 4 The Netherlands 20 732 Power
Delga Solar Australia 100 120 Power P
EA Further Development Nigeria 30 35 Conventional Oil and Gas
Mero 1 [B] Brazil 20 180 Deep Water
Pegaga Malaysia 20 95 Conventional Oil and Gas
Permian + Fox Creek [C] United States & Canada various ~250 Shales P
Pierce Depressurisation United Kingdom 93 20 Conventional Oil and Gas P
PowerNap United States 100 35 Deep Water P
Salym Southern Hub Russia 50 65 Conventional Oil and Gas
Troll Ph3 Norway 8 255 Conventional Oil and Gas
Vaca Muerta basin [D] Argentina ~90 ~70 Shales P
Vito United States 63 100 Deep Water P
2022+ Assa North Nigeria 30 60 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Gbaran Ph3 Nigeria 30 45 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Gorgon - Jansz infill Australia 25 maintain capacity Integrated Gas
KBB Phase 2 Malaysia 30 60 Conventional Oil and Gas
LNG Canada T1-2 Canada 40 14 Integrated Gas
Mero 2 [B] Brazil 20 180 Deep Water
Norco upgrade United States 100 Gasoline Oil Products P
P-71 [B] Brazil 25 150 Deep Water
Penguins Redevelopment United Kingdom 50 45 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Pennsylvania cracker United States 100 1.5 mtpa C2 Chemicals P
34
Projects under construction
[A] Direct and indirect share. [B] The Brazil accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator. [C] Permian and Fox
Creek production represents Shell entitlement share of production, includes operated and non-operated positions. [D] Sierras Blancas and Cruz de Lorena at 90% Shell share,
Coiron Amargo SO at 80% Shell share.
2020-21 Shell share: >400 kboe/d
2022+ Shell share: >140 kboe/d, 5.6 mtpa LNG
1.5 mtpa ethylene
35. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Phase Project Country
Shell share [A]
%
Peak production
100% kboe/d
LNG capacity
100% mtpa
Products
100% capacity
Power output
100% MW
Theme
Shell
operated
Define Bonga South West Nigeria 43 175 Deep Water P
Colibri backfill Trinidad and Tobago 87 35 Integrated Gas P
Gorgon - Jansz compression Australia 25 maintain capacity Integrated Gas
Gumusut-Kakap Ph3 Malaysia 29 40 Deep Water
HI Development Nigeria 40 75 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Jackdaw United Kingdom 74 40 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Jerun Malaysia 30 95 Conventional Oil and Gas
Karachaganak Expansion 1A Kazakhstan 29 35 Conventional Oil and Gas
Kashagan CFP Kazakhstan 17 35 Conventional Oil and Gas
Lake Charles LNG United States 50 16.8 Integrated Gas P
LNG Canada Expansion Canada 40 14 Integrated Gas
Marjoram/Rosmari Malaysia 75 100 Conventional Oil and Gas P
NLNG T7 Nigeria 26 7.4 Integrated Gas
Ormen Lange Ph3 Norway 18 80 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Prelude - Crux Australia 82 maintain capacity Integrated Gas P
Uzu Development Nigeria 30 45 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Val d’Agri Wave 2 Italy 39 20 Conventional Oil and Gas
Whale United States 60 100 Deep Water P
Assess/Select
(continues)
Abadi Indonesia 35 244 9.5 Integrated Gas
Arrow backfill Australia 50 maintain capacity Integrated Gas
Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind United States 50 2500 Power
Bonga Main Life Extension & Upgrade Nigeria 55 80 Deep Water P
Bonga North Tranche 1 Nigeria 55 119 Deep Water P
Bukom upgrade Singapore 100 Gasoline Oil Products P
35
Pre-FID options (1)
[A] Direct and indirect share. [B] The Brazil accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator. [C] To be confirmed.
Shell share potential: >950 kboe/d
~24 mtpa LNG
~2 GW
36. Royal Dutch Shell | January 30, 2020
Phase Project Country
Shell share [A]
%
Peak production
100% kboe/d
LNG capacity
100% mtpa
Products
100% capacity
Power output
100% MW
Theme
Shell
operated
Assess/Select
(continued)
Cambo United Kingdom 30 30 Conventional Oil and Gas
Clair South United Kingdom 28 60 Conventional Oil and Gas
Dover United States 100 [C] Deep Water P
East Med Egypt 35 115 Conventional Oil and Gas
Fort Sumter United States 100 [C] Deep Water P
Gato do Mato Brazil 80 99 Deep Water P
HA Development Nigeria 30 60 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Harmattan Deep Egypt 60 25 Conventional Oil and Gas
Karachaganak Expansion 1B Kazakhstan 29 30 Conventional Oil and Gas
Kashagan Future Gas Expansion PhA Kazakhstan 17 185 Conventional Oil and Gas
Mayflower Offshore Wind United States 50 1600 Power
Mero 3 [B] Brazil 20 180 Deep Water
Mero 4 [B] Brazil 20 180 Deep Water
Merpati - Meragi Brunei 50 35 Conventional Oil and Gas
Moerdijk NWE efficiency project The Netherlands 100 Ethylene Chemicals P
Nebras Iraq [C] [C] Chemicals [C]
NWS - Browse backfill Australia 27 maintain capacity Integrated Gas
Okpokunou Cluster Development Nigeria 24 85 Conventional Oil and Gas P
Oman Integrated GTL Oman [C] [C] [C] Integrated Gas P
Sakhalin T3 Russia 28 5.4 Integrated Gas
Tanzania Tanzania 30 [C] 12 Integrated Gas P
Timi Malaysia 75 40 Conventional Oil and Gas
Val d’Agri Wave 3 Italy 39 55 Conventional Oil and Gas
36
Pre-FID options (2)
[A] Direct and indirect share. [B] The Brazil accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator. [C] To be confirmed.
Shell share potential: >950 kboe/d
~24 mtpa LNG
~2 GW