2. www.winrock.org
Overall framework
National policies
National Target Program for
responding to CC (NTP-RCC)
Support Program for
Responding to CC (SP-RCC)
National climate change
strategy (NCCS)
Green growth strategy (GGS)
National action plan for
responding to climate change
Sector CC action plans
Provincial CC
program
Research
Projects
Communication
Planning
4. www.winrock.org
Three questions for research
1. What is happening now?
(Identifying trends)
2. How will this change?
(Climate projections based on science)
3. What does this mean?
(Applying what we learn)
8. • Research should start by considering what is
happening now
• Short- and intermediate-term decisions should
rely on current situation and emerging trends
9. www.winrock.org
CC projections and uncertainty
Parameter Year Source of information on projection1
MONRE,
2009
MONRE,
2011
ICEM2,
2013
Temperature
increase, oC
2050 1.3oC 1.0oC – 1.2oC 2.6oC
2100 2.6oC 2.5oC – 2.8oC -
Rainfall,
% increase
2050 0.7% 3% 5% - 6%
2100 1.9% 8% - 9% -
Sea level
rise, cm
2050 33cm 26cm – 30cm 30cm
2100 100cm 105cm -
1. High emissions scenario. 2. Mekong ARCC Synthesis report, March 2013
10. www.winrock.org
What is certain?
• Temperatures are increasing
• The sea level is rising
• Rainfall is becoming more variable
Meaning that:
The region will continue to suffer from floods,
droughts, high temperature and salinity impacts
14. www.winrock.org
Allocation of funds from Support program
for responding to CC (SP-RCC)
61 Approved
Projects, 2012
Total budget:
$682 million
15. www.winrock.org
Project selection
at provincial level
• Project selection is a complex process
• Combine top-down priorities with bottom-
up needs
• Ensure consistency with a long-term vision
• Package projects to create an integrated
solution
16. www.winrock.org
Example of a multi-function
community shelter
• Commune health clinic, acts as a
shelter during emergencies, with
priority for elderly or less mobile
people
• Health clinic including treatment
rooms, doctors offices and
meeting room space
• Provision for emergency
equipment such as an electrical
generator, back-up water supply
tanks and communications
receiver/transmitter
• Shelter will become the focal point
for local response during
emergencies
Multi-function Shelter Binh Dao commune,
Thanh Binh District, Quang Nam
19. www.winrock.org
Key points for communicating
• CC can seem scary, which can lead to inaction,
people need to be alert, but not alarmed
• 5 excuses for inaction:
– Traditional threats are more important than CC
– Already too busy with existing problems
– Existing activities build resilience therefore already doing
adaptation
– Experts have all the answers and they will do everything
– We don’t have enough data to start, there is too much
uncertainty
Source: Shaun Martin, WWF
21. www.winrock.org
Need to avoid Thailand flood situation
• US $45billion in damages,
fifth most expensive
disaster in history
• Most losses occurred in
industrial estates, many of
which had been built in
the last 20 years on flood-
prone land, but without
adequate flood protection
• Now the government is
investing $95 million for
flood protection dikes
22. How do we allow future development but take into
account the impacts of climate change?
How do we allow future development but take into
account the impacts of climate change?
23. www.winrock.org
Principles for land allocation
and development
1. Avoid hazards
– Allocate land for development in low-risk areas
2. New development should not create new
problems
– Development (dykes, roads, industry, houses)
should not create new problems for other areas
3. Minimum performance standards in design
– Development should not add to the burden of
emergency services. Need minimum floor levels,
ways of egress, contingency plans for emergency.
27. www.winrock.org
Mainstreaming CC for
infrastructure and development
• Build away from shore line
to allow for sea level rise
and erosion
• Ensure roads, houses and
buildings are built high
enough to be flood free
• Improve design and
construction standards to
take into account wind loads
28. www.winrock.org
Climate change mitigation
and land use planning
• Land use planning and
regulations to minimize loss
of forest, both coastal and
inland
• Allow for green space in
developing urban areas to
reduce temperature effects
• Allow for future use of land
for renewable energy such
as wind or solar power
29. www.winrock.org
Conclusion
• Think clearly about the existing situation and the
emerging trends
• Focus on existing problems with a view to addressing
medium term issues
• Reassure people that, while climate change is different,
its not so different and that actions now are possible
• Smart planning decisions today will avoid bigger
problems later