Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
My own business - do I have a chance?
Krzysztof Daniel
ex IBMer
ex Red Hatter
work @ Currency One
I like games
About me
"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Ima...
So, why are you here?
Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC
Fast forward...
Fast forward...
But...
But...
A word of warning
So, let’s continue
Absolutely no customer has a
need to make you profitable.
First of all – user needs
Activities
Practices
Knowledge
Data
Secondly - components
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
●cloud
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
●cloud
●electricity
Let’s talk about ideas
One problem with the future
One problem with the future
A bit of theory
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911
Let’s cheat
f(time)
g(time)
Let’s cheat
Let’s define:
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
●Certainty - how well understood a thing
is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Ubiquity
Ce...
Time removed.
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html
Evolution vs Product
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html
Evolution curve - idealized
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Weak signals
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html
Profits
a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.
●New
●Novel
●Unknown
●Uncertain
●Rare
●Changing
●Chaotic
Genesis
Nobody did that before!
Are you sure?
Are you ready to fail fast?
Genesis-like idea
Microsoft Bob
http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html
●bottled water for pets
Thirsty dog
crispy beef
tangy fish
Thirsty dog
15th century
And some successes, too
The Internet - 1969
Some other successes
Do I have a chance?
You will die before you make
any money out of it.*
Do I have a chance?
*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed a...
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
●Measured
●Stable
●Predictable
●Cost of doing business
●Market penetration near 100%
●Usually invisible to the user
●Elect...
●contract to fulfill
●sheer price matters
●no room for innovation
●really large scale
●nobody will see that
●existing user...
Do I have a chance?
New electricity provider?
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
power
computing power
social network
“New” search engine?
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
●custom built
●off-the-shelf product/rental
●maturing
Transitional phase
●IBM Watson
●cars
●virtual personal assistants (G...
product-to-product startup
Canonical vs Red Hat
●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight
●tough competition of free, open sourced products
●hu...
No. Unless you’ve got
●a really, really good product
●a really, really good sales
●a lot of time
Do I have a chance?
Three types of innovation
●genesis
●product-to-product, utility to utility
That said...
Three types of innovation
●genesis
●product-to-product, utility-to-utility
●there is one more...
That said...
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
peaceful competitionwonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
previous success is the deadliest enemy
Inertia
●to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];
●to improve the effectiveness of sales to large custome...
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
c...
●is a deadly threat to corporations
●is the sweet spot for startups
the wall of inertia
takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utility
examples:
●Amazon EC2
●Neostrada
product-to-utility startup
●effectiveness - when the price defends you
owhat is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?
oSomething is so cheap...
Do I have a chance?
Absolutely!
Do I have a chance?
Open Source
Open Source
●IBM PC vs Apple Mac
●Google Android vs Apple iOS
●Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS
Open Approach
Ecosystem
The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:
lHS2
lHM Government
lDutch Government
lTwo very large banks
Why?
About the presentation
There is time only for this...
I work on a tool designed for mapping.
The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).
I need you to start using it.
You need to be AWA...
certain kind of very interesting innovations
scale matters
different scales requires different approaches
open source help...
Questions?
Credits
Simon Wardley - the technique creator
4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel
4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel

284 views

Published on

Krzysztof Daniel

Language: Polish

Myślisz o zrealizowaniu własnego, innowacyjnego pomysłu? Gratuluję kreatywności i odwagi! A teraz chciałbym Ci pokazać coś, co może odwieść Cię od tego zamiaru - innowacje są najzwyczajniej przewartościowane.
Odkrycie silnika parowego nie spowodowało rewolucji w przemyśle.
Stworzenie internetu było tylko i wyłącznie ciekawostką militarną, ale Neostrada - to było COŚ.
Z drugiej jednak strony, pomimo tego, że "cloud" był jak najbardziej przewidywalny, to niektóre firmy dały się złapać z przysłowiową ręką w nocniku (patrz rezygnacja CEO Oracle), i zostały "pokonane" przez naprawdę niewielkich konkurentów (patrz Red Hat vs 100x mniejszy Canonical).
To teraz do meritum - przystępujemy do analizy:

Krzywa ewolucji - to jest 5 minut teorii. Każdy, ale to każdy wynalazek przechodzi przez takie same etapy rozwoju, i niestety te etapy trzeba poznać (całe szczęście są tylko cztery).
Dlaczego należy zacząć od potrzeb klienta (i inne oczywiste oczywistości). Warto pamiętać, że zapewnienie dochodowości nigdy nie jest potrzebą klienta.
Typy i przewidywalność innowacji - kwintesencja prezentacji. Są takie innowacje, które mają 100% szans na powodzenie (np. cloud), a są takie, o których nic nie wiadomo - jak rozróżnić jedne od drugich?
Typy ludzi do zatrudnienia - ludzie, którzy sprawdzają się w jednym startupie, zniszczą drugi. Wszystko tak naprawdę zależy od typu przedsięwzięcia.
Zdobywanie rynku poprzez "Otwarte" podejście (czyli w jaki sposób działają wszystkie firmy Open Source).
Wykorzystywanie ekosystemów - kto ma dane ten ma władzę!
Kiedy kopiować konkurencję?

Po tej prezentacji każda osoba powinna umieć zanalizować swój pomysł i określić, czy ma rzeczywiste szanse na powodzenie.
A na samo zakończenie - wyjaśnienie, dlaczego zrobiłem tą prezentację.

Published in: Software
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel

  1. 1. My own business - do I have a chance? Krzysztof Daniel
  2. 2. ex IBMer ex Red Hatter work @ Currency One I like games About me "Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
  3. 3. So, why are you here? Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC
  4. 4. Fast forward...
  5. 5. Fast forward...
  6. 6. But...
  7. 7. But...
  8. 8. A word of warning
  9. 9. So, let’s continue
  10. 10. Absolutely no customer has a need to make you profitable. First of all – user needs
  11. 11. Activities Practices Knowledge Data Secondly - components
  12. 12. Let’s talk about ideas
  13. 13. ●printing Let’s talk about ideas
  14. 14. ●printing ●digital camera Let’s talk about ideas
  15. 15. ●printing ●digital camera ●mobile phone touch interface Let’s talk about ideas
  16. 16. ●printing ●digital camera ●mobile phone touch interface ●cloud Let’s talk about ideas
  17. 17. ●printing ●digital camera ●mobile phone touch interface ●cloud ●electricity Let’s talk about ideas
  18. 18. One problem with the future
  19. 19. One problem with the future
  20. 20. A bit of theory
  21. 21. The diffusion curve
  22. 22. The diffusion curve
  23. 23. The diffusion curve http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911
  24. 24. Let’s cheat f(time) g(time)
  25. 25. Let’s cheat
  26. 26. Let’s define: Let’s cheat!
  27. 27. Let’s define: ●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is. Let’s cheat!
  28. 28. Let’s define: ●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is. ●Certainty - how well understood a thing is. Let’s cheat!
  29. 29. Let’s define: ●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is. ●Certainty - how well understood a thing is. Let’s cheat! Ubiquity Certainty
  30. 30. Time removed. http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html
  31. 31. Evolution vs Product http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html
  32. 32. Evolution curve - idealized
  33. 33. The Evolution Axis Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
  34. 34. Weak signals http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html
  35. 35. Profits
  36. 36. a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do. ●New ●Novel ●Unknown ●Uncertain ●Rare ●Changing ●Chaotic Genesis
  37. 37. Nobody did that before! Are you sure? Are you ready to fail fast? Genesis-like idea
  38. 38. Microsoft Bob http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html
  39. 39. ●bottled water for pets Thirsty dog
  40. 40. crispy beef tangy fish Thirsty dog
  41. 41. 15th century And some successes, too
  42. 42. The Internet - 1969 Some other successes
  43. 43. Do I have a chance?
  44. 44. You will die before you make any money out of it.* Do I have a chance? *or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates
  45. 45. The Evolution Axis Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
  46. 46. ●Measured ●Stable ●Predictable ●Cost of doing business ●Market penetration near 100% ●Usually invisible to the user ●Electricity, Network, Computing Utility
  47. 47. ●contract to fulfill ●sheer price matters ●no room for innovation ●really large scale ●nobody will see that ●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re significantly cheaper ocan you be significantly cheaper without deep experience in the field? Startup problems
  48. 48. Do I have a chance?
  49. 49. New electricity provider? Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental) Value power computing power social network
  50. 50. “New” search engine?
  51. 51. The Evolution Axis Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
  52. 52. ●custom built ●off-the-shelf product/rental ●maturing Transitional phase ●IBM Watson ●cars ●virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)
  53. 53. product-to-product startup
  54. 54. Canonical vs Red Hat ●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight ●tough competition of free, open sourced products ●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter community ●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement* ●entering still possible, time-proportional market share product-to-product startup * heard from one business angel, may be an approximation
  55. 55. No. Unless you’ve got ●a really, really good product ●a really, really good sales ●a lot of time Do I have a chance?
  56. 56. Three types of innovation ●genesis ●product-to-product, utility to utility That said...
  57. 57. Three types of innovation ●genesis ●product-to-product, utility-to-utility ●there is one more... That said...
  58. 58. Let’s go back to evolution Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental) Value wonder
  59. 59. Let’s go back to evolution Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental) Value peaceful competitionwonder
  60. 60. Let’s go back to evolution Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental) Value wall of inertia peaceful competitionwonder
  61. 61. previous success is the deadliest enemy Inertia
  62. 62. ●to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...]; ●to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...]; ●[...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...]; ●[...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...]; ●[...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...]; ●[...] sales of services outside Poland [...]. Inertia http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014
  63. 63. Let’s go back to evolution Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental) Value wall of inertia peaceful competitionwonder companies stop here
  64. 64. ●is a deadly threat to corporations ●is the sweet spot for startups the wall of inertia
  65. 65. takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utility examples: ●Amazon EC2 ●Neostrada product-to-utility startup
  66. 66. ●effectiveness - when the price defends you owhat is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server? oSomething is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it lFord T lCommodore 64 lPrinted books ●Jevons effect Industrialization
  67. 67. Do I have a chance?
  68. 68. Absolutely! Do I have a chance?
  69. 69. Open Source Open Source
  70. 70. ●IBM PC vs Apple Mac ●Google Android vs Apple iOS ●Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS Open Approach
  71. 71. Ecosystem
  72. 72. The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique: lHS2 lHM Government lDutch Government lTwo very large banks Why?
  73. 73. About the presentation There is time only for this...
  74. 74. I work on a tool designed for mapping. The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0). I need you to start using it. You need to be AWARE! Reasons
  75. 75. certain kind of very interesting innovations scale matters different scales requires different approaches open source helps beware of inertia Do I have a chance - summary
  76. 76. Questions?
  77. 77. Credits Simon Wardley - the technique creator

×